i'm rebecca quick along with with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin u.s. he cequity futures down 20 points below fair value. s&p futures are up just by 1.7% that is after the decline of 1.7% yesterday for the s&p and nasdaq down 2.2%. this morning it is indicated up by 36 we'll talk about what was happening with technology. all 11 sectors were down yesterday. technology hardest hit among the most notable moves, microsoft dropping 4%. nvidia down 5% in large part of what was happening in the treasury market treasury yields with the continued climb. the 10-year yield 2.8% before

coming back down to 2.79%. the 2-year yield at 2.5% inversion with the 5-year and 10-year. the 2.8% that we watched for the 10-year this morning will be a big deal for mortgage prices oil prices yesterday were down this is probably because of the lockdowns continuing in china. back up 3% down by 4% yesterday to below 95 dp 95 a barrel. we have the cpi number out this morning at 8:30 a.m. the headline number is rising 1.1% month over month. the big drivers are rising food, energy and rents

you know all of this if you filled up your gas tasknk or ben to the grocery store >> that is true. >> gas prices are down 10 cents. >> $3.97 if you pay cash in new jersey >> i hate giving up my cash. >> i don't know. i go to the same place. >> and pay cash? >> yes >> creature of habit >> the worst thing is, in my car, i get the 93 octane the highest octane >> for the car you are leasing. >> i don't think the octane matters. i do it anyway it is not $3.97. it is $5.97. i pay cash >> more cash >> maybe you should pay bitcoin.

>> what are you doing? >> katie stockton. it's the dog not the tail. >> this is bitcoin this morning. here is the crypto back above $40,000 after falling below that level for the first time in almost a month you are looking at $40,245 other crypto this morning. moving back up a slight bit. eth ethereum that's what the kids would say, eth. solana is doing well i don't know if it is the tail i don't know what it is. >> katie said 40 is important. >> holding that level? >> yeah of the y you know what? 27 >> really? >> gosh. >> those are big moves >> they are. >> i'm very eager to see what she says about the major

averages >> the 10-year >> right >> all of it. >> 2.8% a point that moves we will find this out with her is this -- >> would 3.5% surprise you >> we will find out. >> it has been ka quick move >> you are talking about mortgage rates increasing and that determines how much you pay for a home that matters in the practical economy. >> it do in global news, european stocks sliding lower big drops in german banks after a report yesterday suggested an undisclosed investor sold large stakes in deutsche bank and commerz bank we have rosanna lockwood with the details. rosanna, good morning. >> reporter: good morning.

i'll start by giving you the look at the morning in europe. heavily in the red the ftse 100 in the uk where it is energy focused. propped up by the spike in commodity prices cac is down .80% it had a positive day yesterday, but not today. germany. the story today. dax is off you mentioned the details. a major investor in both doobz an deutsche bank and commerz bank you have. then down 8% today. this is an undisclosed investor cnbc is working on confirming this capital group is one that had

stakes in both banks a lot of focus on them of course, this follows the private equity group shedding positions in the banks a lot of focus on german lenders. both have come out in the last two hours saying we stand by our strategy nothing wrong with what we are doing. it is all par for the course putting aside a notion of a story specific reason for the difficul divestment >> rosanna, thanks i have austria on my mind. did you read your paper, sorkin? the front page piece got my attention. i got very depressed because of the austrian chancellor met with putin for 75 minutes yesterday and got nowhere. putin says the atrocities are

being staged and has no regrets and no remorse >> and he is bringing in a general with a horrible track record. >> more brutal basically full speed ahead austria is not a nato member it is in the european union. they are trying to stay neutral. he is the first person to go over and actually talk directly to putin and then got nowhere. a 75-minute meeting. the russians said it wasn't a very long meeting as far as things go. >> i can't say i'm surprised. >> did you expect anything less? >> makes your skin crawl >> tens of thousands in mariupol >> the news he was bringing in the general known as "the butcher of syria" was the most depressing and hard to fathom news >> what got me was what if this guy has to be stopped?

>> that's the longer conversation we only have a three-hour show >> i know. you know, historic parallels then everything we're worried about. walking on egg shells and kid gloves and only sanctions. the other stuff comes into play if you have to stop someone. i don't know what does it mean for us and our kids and everything else >> it brings up questions about the sanctions. a guest on with carl who filled in for shep. the sanctions we put on iran are more severe. what we are doing with russia is still only about a 4 there are more things we can do. iran is not allowed to sell other or natural gas >> russia is raking it in. they have more revenue and he

has a 90% approval rating. >> because of what they are feeding back to citizens >> it is political if president biden made a speech this afternoon and said, look, dp guys, citizens, it will take a hit. the economy will take a hit. your lives will take a hit it will cost you $10$10 a gallon it will come undone. if they did that, you tell me what happens i'm curious. >> you said your gas prices are going up >> i don't think anyone has a clue what we are really talking about. if we were to do what you are talking about, what you actually think happens, politically and here in this country and in other countries. >> we would not be in the situation europe is.

selling oil and gas to europe and we don't make the calls there. >> if and when you get to this point, you tell me what will happen politically, tell me what the other side says? >> i'm not thinking about the monetary costs i'm thinking about what happens. the french sent people in to check on war crimes. that's not troops on the ground. they dispatched people to check things out >> to andrew's point, marine le pen is in a tight run-off position and she is a putin sympathizer. i will macron will walk away with this, but the second person with 22% >> 90% approval. i don't know how you sell this where is the internet over there? >> i think they cut off a lot. they do in china, too. >> we're not going to -- we have

inflation to talk about. this other stuff is above or below our pay grade? >> above for sure. coming up, what investors -- we can't solve it. pointless. we will look for in the cpi. big numbers. futures ahead of the release down yesterday they were trying to turn positive we have nasdaq up now. the s&p is up. as we head to break, check out the day's biggest winners and losers you are watching "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. nice suits, you guys blend right in. the world needs you back. i'm retired greg, you know this. people have their money just sitting around doing nothing... that's bad, they shouldn't do that.

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welcome back futures are mixed. dow is down 14 points below fair value. nasdaq futures up 32 s&p up 1.5 the s&p was down 1.76% yesterday. nasdaq off 2.2% yesterday. oil prices were down sharply down 4%. this morning, rebounding to some extent back above $95 a barrel. headlines this morning michael barr is the frontrunner

for the top job overseeing banks at the fed according to politico. president biden's previous pick pulled her nomination due to lack of support. barr had been a leading candidate for the comptroller. his ties to lending club raised red flags for progressives we will see what happens there the expectation or better expectation this will go through, joe. the markets with the latest read on inflation with the cpi for march today. steve liesman joins us now pretty good idea, steve? >> they are not bad at forecasting this one, joe. what they expect is an ugly inflation report the bigger trouble is little relief in sight for months down the road you have the 40-year expectation for inflation in the march cpi

report it may not be the worst of what is to come inflation was already high and commodity surge with the ukraine invasion china has a shutdown over covid. it means new supply chain disruption when old ones have not cleared. labor markets remain tight to create inflation pressure. housing looks to remain high it is unknown how much of the commodity surge has made its way into the conkconsumer prices. there may be more price surges to come. here are the numbers it is well to remember 1.1% month over month is expected that used to be a year over year rate back in the days with low infl inflation. we will watch the year over year rate at 8.4% we will watch the core today and

expect it to be up 6.5%. high inflation cuts into the spending power for consumers because wages are not rising as fast as prices good news for the economy for the next several months. consumers have an estimated $2 trillion of pandemic savings they are showing that to draw down with the inflation drag that could last for a while. joe. >> steve, we also factor out the more voluatile elements >> there is a lot of talk about that we have been through this over the decades, joe it factored out for a specific reason it is factored out as a way to make policy and the idea being if you take out the volatile factors, you are looking more broadly at what is happening in the economy. i don't think the fed looks at

jud just the core. it looks at the headline number. it looks at the cpi and pce. there is a trim meaning which factors out anything from the dallas fed they look at that. i don't think you need to look too far to know that all prices are rising broadly and rising fast all of that leads the fed to say we have to raise rates and raise fast. >> maybe the more concerning thing is something we have not seen in a long time. that is when the number is volatile not only in the headline, but in the core number two. that means the volatility worked into other factors i can't remember the last time we talked about that before the recent trend. >> we talked about that yesterday. powell's pivot in november that is what he saw. broadened from the headline number down into the core and there were a range of issues of

factors and categories where prices were rising that's what led him to become more concerned whether or not he pivoted fast enough we have a chart of where the market expects the fed to go by august, the 3.25% rate. maybe slightly above the fed to consider neutral and on the way. if you are counting quarter point hikes, that's 11.5 we stopped counting. there are probably a couple of 50s on the way. >> steve, thank you. this is the story of the morning. it is building up to 8:30. we will talk to you later. >> talk soon. when we come back, calling all super fans netflix is trying out a new feature. we have details next. first, as we head to break,

look at the faang stocks this morning. under significant pressure yesterday. again, rates moving higher the 10-year pushed above 2.8% before dropping back down. this morning, green arrows for most of these. modest advances. apple down a little bit. we will continue to watch this stay tuned this is "squawk box" and you are watching cnbc.

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welcome back it is time for the executive edge sellers on etsy beginning a strike this week protesting the site raising the fee it charges shop owners for transactions the company boosted from 5% to

6.5% they did that yesterday. the first increase since 2018. etsy says this is critical to increase investment and marketing and services 20,000 sellers have signed a petition against the move. shares are down in the last year this has been a pandemic winner and now a bit of a pandemic loser. >> that is a jerk move to 6.5% a significant take when all you do is provide the platform they make the products and ship the products you are not a store where you provide a service and all beyond this is the reason technology stocks do well they have no cap you have zero cap x costs importanfor setting this up. >> i'll take the other side. >> you're kidding? we can see an article.

that's weird >> a couple of things. first of all, amazon, i don't know if we like amazon or not like amazon. i believe charges more than this in terms of the fee. there are fees associated with running a web site there are customers that come to it because of seo. i don't know who you think is supposed to pay for it somebody has to pay for it >> i'm on amazon and etsy. i'm buying from people who are making it in their home. crafts and different things. all small sellers. the stuff i buy is always that >> you can charge over 5%. >> that's significant. 5% i don't think these people are making a lot of money. >> i understand that i'm sympathetic to anybody making anything. the truth is in most stores in america, if you made a -- >> i'll concede the point.

>> you made the blouse and try to sell it in the store, they are charging you more than 5%. >> because in the store, you are providing more you have to pay for the lights on and the employee and the shipping costs you are paying rent. what are you paying to run a web site never mind. >> how do people get to the site netflix is adding the option to super like your shows and movies a two thumbs up button which the company says has been a requested feature. netflix ditched the five-star rating system in 2017 in favor of thumbs up or down i don't need that on netflix i need it on apple for severance. >> that's what i don't care about. >> severance severance. severance. the finale very quirky. ben stiller. quirky i couldn't have seen the finale.

it was sunday night. honda plans to produce 2 million electric vehicles a year by 2030 as part of the bid to cut emissions. they aim to introduce 30 models worldwide by the end of the decade honda will use batteries from gm and other suppliers for the time being and spend $60 billion on research and development. when we return, china dealing with the covid lockdowns. a report from the ground and global implications. we are celebrating financial literacy month investor and super bowl champion ndamakong suh. >> financial literacy needs to be in the school system. i wish i had it growing up it is important for our youth to learn that at an early age it is prevalent in their life. we find ourselves wide eye open

with leasing a car or buying a car or looking for your first home or apartment and understanding your credit is part of the decisions. if you don't have that basic foundation and knowledge, you will not be able to succeed in life >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure nesses! you all deserve something epic! so we're giving every business, our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers our best deals on every iphone. ♪ ♪

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welcome back to "squawk box live from the market site in times squares. nasdaq headed in the opposite direction and s&p slightly higher treasury yields. watch those on the daily basis we will see what happens after 8:30 cpi number. just below 2.8% now this morning. inflation. march consumer price index is due out 8:30 a.m economists are expected to show

8.4% increase annually the highest level sinces december of 1981 1.1% rising monthly. rising food, energy and rent and new omicron variant has been found in japan. the variant detected in the uk and british cases of the sub variant increasing it has been detected in thailand and india and israel the u.s. has no cases yet. and in china, the covid l lockdowns. u.s. state department requested all non-essential personnel to leave. eunice yoon is joining us with more from beijing. eunice, i have seen more videos of people screaming out windows in shanghai because of the lockdowns and not having food. and being at their wits end.

how is this adding up on a daily basis there? >> reporter: some people now are being allowed out of their houses because shanghai is in theory, easing the lockdown and taking a different approach. they are saying that if you are in an area that is low risk, in other words, has had no new infections in 14 days, are you you you are allowed out of the house. if one building meets the requirements, but the next building doesn't, those people in the clean building are not really allowed to go out people are now able to walk their dogs, but that is meaning they can walk them in the hallway or they can walk them in the compound on the grounds. better than what they have been dealing with for several weeks

still quite onerous and harsh. restrictions spreading outside shanghai suzhou, a big manufacturing area, will test certain districts in their jurisdictions. also urging residents not to leave and to make sure that they work from home other areas like kunshan and taicang will start mass testing their populations. the reason this is so important from a global supply chain standpoint is this area is home to a lot of facilities for american companies such as eli lily and exxonmobil and nabisco/mondelez it is home for tech suppliers.

pegatron, an iphone assembler, had to halt production there also compal, it makes the ipad it said the same thing quanta, it is a netbookmaker you are starting to see the disruption because of how close they are to shanghai just people in different areas are concerned about people from shanghai coming over to their areas and potentially spreading the virus. >> dr. scott gottlieb, former head of the fda, has spoken with us about the problem with china. they didn't take the time they bought themselves with the zero covid policy to make sure people were properly vaccinated he pointed to the number of people above 80 with only one shot and people 50 and an older

with no shots. are they talking about vaccines? china is in a different position as opposed to the united states where vaccines are used and they have a lot of spread on to give you natural immunity from those things >> reporter: that's the focus. we are starting to see more and more marketing campaigns geared to the elderly to get people vaccinated there has been a lockdown and travel restrictions and there's been this satisfaction or complacency among the elderly population that they would not have to get vaccinated also, a lot of concerns because people have underlying medical conditions you are starting to see a big effort here in beijing where the numbers are not very high right now. at least the reported numbers. even here, they are starting to see more campaigns and actually

incentives, financial incentives, offered to the e eld elderly. up to $80 and some cases more like $160 for people to get their vaccine. it is what you are talking about. there is a concern that people aren't vaccinated and there's been a lot of time lost. now we are starting to see a ramp up of the effort on to vaccinate older people >> eunice, thank you let's talk about here in the united states. philadelphia reinstating the indoor mask mandate. the change coming after the city reported more than 50% increase if s in the last ten days the first city to put the mask mandate back in place. we are seeing the numbers rise in a number of places. mayor of new york city coming down with covid. i was supposed to go to a play on monday night. it was closed down.

>> it spread throughout broadway at least four shows. >> a number of shows seem to be down i wonder if we will go through the periods where cities for a certain amount of time go to masking situation. others don't >> i was wondering if things were worse than philly to see this brought back up. >> philly has been pretty strict my daughter is down there. we were up in new jersey and there were no masks. >> columbia returned >> philadelphia as a city has been cautious. >> yes. coming up, inflation hitting every aspect of the country. the next guest says it is disproportionately affecting people of color. the head of the national urban league is out with the state of america report. you can follow our podcast you can listen to wherever you follow your podcasts it is not just the show. you have to listen

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welcome back to "squawk box. inflation hitting americans hard

at the grocery store and gas station. joining us now with more on the disparties of the economics is marc morial. president of the national urban league out with the 46th annual state of black p america report this morning. marc, great to see you >> great to be with you. >> nice to see you help us understand what the revelations were and highlights of the report this year and perhaps maybe the biggest surprises. >> let me contextualize it most don't include covid i have impacts of covid. it is fair to say that the report democnstrates there has been small progress in closing economic gaps over the last several years pre-covid. the disparties that define the american economy, the 2 to 1

ratio, of black joblessness and the household incomes and disparity of wealth remain locked in some suspended ain makes. these are the great challenges that the american economy faces when it comes to black americans. hispanic americans index close to black americans maybe better, but still far behind white americans when we look at the indicators i think what a big question and i know you want to ask is how about now? my observations about now is the black unemployment rate, jobless rate, has come down post covid it remains twice as much as the white unemployment rate. no doubt the impact of inflation is going to hit all working families in middle income families and most blacks are either working, working poor or in the aspiring middle class

it will impact them because inflation impacts the nece necessities of life. food and fuel. it will impact other things like clothing those challenges will impact black americans, no doubt. >> marc, the question i ask is in the aftermath of the murder of george floyd, a lot of corporations came out with a lot of pledges and what they wanted to do and emphasis they wanted on black americans in terms of employment and in terms of finding new roles for them higher roles in organizations for them do you think that is coming true do you think that was lip service? where do things stand? >> i will tell you for some it has been a strong commitment with dollars and money and strategy i think that -- i don't want to start calling the names of

people -- lest i leave them out. for others, it is lip service. still many others made no commitments. 2000 publicly traded company icompany in america. it will take three to five years. less measure the success does your work force look differently? are you increasing procurement with businesses owned by people of color i believe some saw it as spin. i would argue and suggest that what we need is a sustained effort over a period of many, many years so, to rebalance our commitment and how we think about the future of american corporations and businesses >> finally, i was going to say

the report has a big part about democracy and what's going on with gerrymandering and suppression and misinformation and issues that arguably are political, but the reason i'm mentioning them are tincreasingy corporations speaking out against them i am curious if you think corporations should speak out or not. i raise this because increasingly today, you have companies speaking out on issues and others not some speaking on some issues, b but other issues are off the table. i think corporate america -- is there a way to be consistent about this is there a way to speak about these or is it everything or nothing? what is the right way? >> that's a great question, andrew one thing about democracy and

voting, it goes to the value system of america more than i think it cast by some as a political issue. you cannot take politics out of politics it goes to american values i think each company has to, as you say, balance and balance stake holders and customers and increasingly inn vvestors asking about the issues employers and employees want to know what the values of the company are. this is a changing landscape there's no easy formula. i do believe we have to reenergize the conversation that democracy and voting is about the value system of the country. not about who wins or who loses. how we as the people have a seat at the table in every element and aspect of hour we are governed >> marc, a fascinating report. we encourage our viewers to

check it out thank you. >> thank you appreciate it. you bet. >> coming up, oil well off the high from a month ago, but in the green this morning some of the shanghai lockdown restrictions have been eased that story is coming up next

oil prices are in the green this morning, up by more than 4% after giving up about 4% yesterday. of course this follows two weeks of declines as lockdowns in china spark concerns over demand joining us with her outlook is founder and director of research at energy aspects. and watching the push and pull of supply and demand with what's happening in ukraine and russia

situation versus the lockdowns in china, which one is the more important one? which one will matter more in the next couple of months? >> well, the next couple of months for sure you are going to see the russian moving fall off. for the first ten days of the month production was down about a million barrels a day. so things are starting to come off. the biggest drivers so far has been the china lockdowns with headlines some of the restrictions are getting lifted. very early days. can't really make a call on how long it's going to take, but we believe our estimates and sources on the ground do suggest demand should start to pick up from may onwards and as you said as soon as china starts to come and buy then the supply losses will bite. >> you know, i'm wondering what

the tipping point is because below $100, people seem to calm down a bit and that usually translates into $4 for gas in most places in america above that when you were looking at 120 for wti with people talking about 150 and beyond, that sparked a real concern about -- just about howpeople would be able to take care of these things we've seen inflation waging. >> why there was so much even political interest getting gas prices below $4 we've seen the sprks pr release, right? partly why the market has sold off. so it is working i don't think even at such high

gasoline prices the first week i was there and driving was strong people are quite desperate to fly. airports were packed, so, yes, of course it's going to have an impact over time but right here right now i think it's more the media rather than actually impacting demand >> so just in terms what this means you think the more important issue is going to be the supply side of things, that will continue to be what will drive prices higher? >> absolutely. look, again, because of spr i do think it caps the up side, for particularly the next few months but come the summer it's going to be at its peak and we've also got the iran deal at risk so we know naunger expect iranian

barrels to come back in the sum as we are expecting. >> thank you when we come back an exclusive interview with toyota's head of north america. we'll be talking about the imact of higher gasoline prices on buying habits and lock downs in asia hurting the supply chain. and later technical analysis from fair lead's katie stockton. why she says crypto could be t oerayade stock market inste ofheth w around. stick around you're watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc

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and lidocaine in a soft-foam applicator. blue-emu works fast and you won't stink! an official partner of nascar. good morning inflation nation consumer price data on the way investors are going to be watching this one closely. and by the way, so's everybody else the u.s. moving some government employees out of shanghai even as the city of 26 million eases some covid retristrictions evero slightly the second hour of "squawk box"

begins right now >> good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and becky quick. we're going to be speaking with toyota's bob carter on the company's ev plans, little bitcoin conversation maybe a big bitcoin conversation with katie stockton who's been so right about all this recently and hear the latest from washington with congressman kevin brady and dig into oil news with jeff curry. take a look at the futures at this hour. the dow looking like it would open up higher at about 10 points higher. nasdaq up about 21 points, s&p

500 up about # points. treasury yields this morning you're looking at the ten-year note sitting at 2.799. >> our top story this morning u.s. inflation can affect that number we just looked at a new read on the consumer price index right in about 90 minutes exactly, and it's expected to be hot. paris hilton >> that's hot. >> in march cpi rose 8.4% year over year t that would be the highest inflation level since 1981 food and energy prices have been particularly volatile. if those are stripped out we are the core cpi rate. and that if you're watching or counting is expected to be up 6.5% >> and that's the not volatile one. okay, let's get to some of today's other top business

stories. first up president biden is set to announce today he'll make it easier for higher ethanol blend gasoline biden will visit iowa to make that announcement. senior administration officials say the move will probably save drivers an average about 10 cents a gallon at about 2,300 gas stations nationwide. european stocks lower this morning. reports late yesterday suggested there was an indisclosed investor who sold stakes of more than 5% in each in deutsche bank and commerce bank. deutsche bank is the one really under pressure and then get this, many workers who recently switched jobs are looking to switch again. a survey says 21% of american workers took a new job in the last year, and of those 40% are

actively looking for another job. >> in a hot job market you can jump around and that is building expectations and it's changing the way in particular younger workers look at things >> i wonder it's also a cultural shift that is somewhat permanent or semipermanent >> once it lasts for years it does build up and change expectations >> meantime bank earnings on deck, also tech stock suffering to start the week. to help kick things off on this trading day to help talk about what's moving markets the cio and co-founder defiance etfs good morning to you. it feels like inflation, inflation is the story, and

we're seeing it in terms of some of the impact in the markets especially in big tech over the past let's call it 24 hours. >> good morning, andrew. i think yesterday was an ugly day for the markets and a of that is the anticipation of inflation coming today and perhaps what does the fed do next i think as we take a step back in terms of tech stocks in particular so we know theflation reading is going to be hot understood it's rising but the thought is we're probably at a peak here. perhaps we get some reprise there. in terms of tech stocks it makes sense. we're just counting future cash flows, but the other hand you have to define which tech stocks the ones we have to stay away from and which ones we could potentially invest in for longer term investors i think there's a

good bit here, microsoft, apple, amazon so i do like those names here and i do think there is opportunity to get ip. >> by the way, take a look at microsoft. we're showing you the faang stocks right now, but i don't get it if you're right, what's the market not seeing here >> yeah, you know, i don't get it either. i think in terms of microsoft if you think about that company they have very strong balance sheet. i think that corporate spending on technology is only going to increase you know, that's been proved on a lot of ceo surveys i think microsoft has pricing power. they can essentially price on a lot of inflation and other costs to the consumer. so, you know, i just think that the market is spooked by what we're seeing, everything from, you know, perhaps we'll have fears of a recession anyway, inflation and, you know, the ten-year treasury number but for companies like microsoft, you know, real rates are negative

they have plenty of cash on the balance sheet. the story for technology, you know, their participation in future trends like that comes to fruition and i like it here again, i'm going to hold it for a long period of time. i don't necessarily think i'm going to see all-time highs. >> what is your expectation either by the end of year or call it 12 to 18 months out? are you in a sideways, flat, down -- up category, or are you in a deutsche bank we could be in a recession market come off 20% category where are you? >> i'm a little bullish in terms of where we're going to end up at the end of the year some fed hikes are priced in you know, if you look at some of the statistics on this when we see a rate hike cycle usually the end of that year ends windup a positive return, 9% annualized

on the s&p 500 i know it's a little bit different this time. i am bullish on the end of the year i do think there's plenty of liquidity in the markets real rates remain low. consumer spending is up 12% pre-covid, consumer job numbers are good >> is the end of the year the beginning of something, the end of something when you look at people who have recession fearsgiven the inversion of the ten-year and what we've seen there, people start to think maybe it's tough. >> yeah, and that's a great question that's hard to predict. historically and sort of statistically it ends up that post-inversion is 12 to 18 months afterwards you start to see a recession, but again we're in a little bit of a different

situation because of the liquidity in the market, and that's not sort of uni, you kno fiscal monetary pumping of the market you have strong balance sheets from corporations and consumers. i think slower growth is coming. that's hard to argue, but it doesn't necessarily mean we're going to spiral into a recession, and the fed may pump the brakes, right? if we start looking into recession i would think jerome powell he said he's going to look and we hope that happens. >> you have a take on crypto i know we've been debating in terms of some of the technicals, but whether this is the tail wagging the dog, dog wagging the tail what's happening here? >> yeah, i -- you know, i'm a huge fan of crypto i think that, you know, if you ask me this question a couple years uh-uh go i would have thought it would have been inflation hedge.

i think what crypto is looking at is another risk as, nasdaq 100 type of stock. but, again, crypto there's this big need for reify, big desire for it talking ameta verse and globally countries adopting digital assets as the payment of currency, institutional adoption etf. i think crypto is going to soar, and again volatile, super risky, but i think this is something i plan to hold for a very long time and i expect to see in that 100,000 range when you're talking about bitcoin in years to come. >> always good to see you. appreciate it, thank you still to come this morning toyota's play to catch up in the ev race. we've got an exclusive interview with the company's u.s. sales chief. and the latest on china's battle against the controversy with millions on lock down and covid zero being put to the test first though as we head to a

break check out the russell 2000 small cap index. i think from the all-time high we're getting close to down 20%, so you're talking about potential bear market territory. "squawk box" will be right back. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

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welcome back to "squawk box. the futures have been mostly mixed as we wait for this 8:30 number dow jones now down single digits, s&p up just fractionally oil prices have been pretty well-behaved recently up a little bit yesterday about -- actually now up about 4%, today closing in on 100 again but between 90 and 105, i guess we've got about 110 for a while but that was a spike, a super spike. >> since the lock downs began in kina >> as we -- i don't know which way are we heading i think china is more important

what happens there >> and philly is interesting, too. they're not doing it for a week even though the cases are climbing i don't think the cases are all that high but they're doing it a week from now because they want to get the week to kind of re-educate people what this means. i think people will probably watch philly to see what kind of blow back they get for this, too. >> it's very strange because you see huge crowds of no masks and then you have masks required >> because it's omrequired in certain places the other thing that's been so weird is the grid iron dinner. i think there were 74 cases picked up from that dinner a week ago all those cases got picked up because it's high profile. so you know when the commerce secretary gets it, merrick garland gets it, the people there, what was happening there no different what was happening all over the places, indoor events and no masks.

>> huge crowds outside >> even some of the indoor stadiums are different >> you know what tonight is. >> what? >> you have expressed a strong interest -- you expressed a strong interest in the return of kyrie, so it's versus cleveland. i'm wondering whether you're still able to overcome your scruples with -- >> i'd wear a mask >> you want kyrie to play even though he's not vaccinated and yet you -- >> oh, for the purposes of the nets, yes i do >> you and eric adams. >> that's completely against my -- i would much prefer we were consistent the whole time >> let me ask you this this is more -- not more important. this money line nets durant plus 30, sounds like a pretty good

bet. if you could get an odd boost on that would you take it he's got to score 30 and then just money line and that's 8.5 point favorites. >> as you know i'm not a gambler. go for it. >> i went big on this. >> $7? >> i did i did $10. netflix is adding the option to super like your favorite shows and movies it's rolling out a two thumbs up button which the company says has been a highly requested feature. netflix ditched its five star rating system back in 2017 in favor of thumbs up or thumbs down coming up, we'll be getting some thumbs down but maybe slightly up in the past day on bitcoin, falling below the key $40,000 mark to start the week

it's now flirting with that line once again what are the technicals signal about where crypto is going? you don't want to miss this. but first we're going to hear from toyota's head of u.s. sales. got an exclusive interview on meeyso k ev roll outs. stay tuned you're watching squawk on cnbc aflac! paul is about to suffer a shelf-inflicted injury. luckily, aflac will help cover his unexpected medical bills. aflac! maybe you could use the money to buy a step stool. i have a step stool. so why are you climbing a shelf? the stool's on top of the shelf, isn't it paul... [shelf crashing] yeah... ♪ aflac! official partner of march madness. [music: “you can get it if you really want” by jimmy cliff]

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after years of being criticized for its slow entrance to the ev market toyota has a big few months ahead of it let's get over to phil lebeau right now. he's at the new york auto show right here in manhattan and he has a special guest. phil, good morning >> thank you, becky. let me bring in bob carter, executive vice president for toyota north america we'll talk about the bz 4x which is coming not too far in the future here, but i want to start off with your perspective on the market right now how worried are you right now about some of the head winds we're seeing right now whether it's recession or high prices, high interest rates? we've got a lot of things certain to move against the consumer when it comes to auto sales. >> phil, the number one issue facing the industry right now is the supply chain we just recently reduced our forecast for 2022 down to our 15 high million sar, and that's

strictly due to where we see the supply chain this career >> where does demand potentially start to kick in >> demand rate we believe is running running 16.2, 16.5 >> you mentioned before we went on-air it's going to be tight with the supply chain all quarter. where we looking at the prospect this continues between high prices and low inventory well into next year >> i think that's a distinct possibility. the supply chain stabilization best cases we see could be stabilizing about fourth quarter. but more realistically it's going to be into 2023 until consumers see normalization of

inventory. >> we've got record high gas prices, you've seen huge demand for your hybrid portfolio. it's about 20% of your sales is it exceeding what you're able to build right now or are you seeing more people coming in and saying maybe in the past i was going to get straight inkrnl combustion and now i want to go with the hybrid? >> by far. either hybrids, plug in hybrids or the bz 4x coming up, but frankly if we could supply the market with about 40% -- >> there's that much demand out there? >> that much demand. it is it is driven by higher gas prices, but this technology is getting very, very good as well as a reduction in operating costs because the fuel priceerize so much lower >> the bz 4x >> yes, sir. >> we see in the second quarter first deliveries here in the

u.s. >> around june starting about $42,000, we're going to first have it available in california but eventually as we get low the year we'll be migrating its availability across the country. >> give me some perspective on demand what are you seeing out there in term of people saying, look, toyota hasn't had a pure electric vehicle, now we want one? >> really high anticipation. we have about 60% market share of the hybrid market, about 70% market share of the plug in hybrid market. so consumers are looking at that and saying if they come in with that kind of market share with hybrids and plug in hybrids let's take a look at their full electric vehicle, it'll get a little slow as production ramps up in and the supply chains but we're looking forward to introducing this car >> auto prices they're coming down just a smidge compared to february or january but still

close to an all-time high. do you think we've peaked or there's the potential we could see maybe another elevation in prices as we get towards the fourth quarter >> unfortunately, i don't believe prices have yet peaked >> you think thew car prices may continue -- >> raw materials, steel, aluminum, cobalt, lithium, everything is continuing to exploit. and manufacturing vehicles is a low margin environment, so, unfortunately the way i see it is manufacturers are going to have no choice but to pass the costs on >> how much higher do you think they go? >> difficult to say. >> the average transaction price if the industry is around 43 to 45,000 i don't think it could go much higher without getting prices ahead of the consumer. >> well, bob, i wish we had better news for people but i appreciate your candor bob carter the executive vice president for toyota i'll send it back to you >> very true looking forward to it, phil.

still to come does china see its massive covid lock down as a sustainable strategy we're going to ask kevin rudd and former prime minister of australia and another programming note for you later today on closing bell over time don't miss cathie wood as we head to break check out the shares of carmax falling around 4% this morning after the used car dealer missed earnings estimates by a wide margin it's dragging down auto nation and car vana don't go anywhere. quk x"ilbeig bk."sawbo wl rhtac i am here because they revolutionized immunotherapy. i am here because they saw how cancer adapts to different oxygen levels and starved it. i am here because they switched off egfr gene mutation and stopped the growth of tumor cells. there's a place that's making one advanced cancer discovery

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covid restrictions finally easing somewhat for some residents of shanghai. about 40% of housing complexes there have reported no new infections for two weeks meaning residents can now leave their homes. but if a single new case is reported in the complex the lock down comes back for the entire complex. at the same time the u.s. government announcing all

nonemergency employees will be withdrawing from the consulate in shanghai. joining us right now to talk about china's covid curves is kevin rudd also the author of the avoidable war. kevin, great to see you. why don't we start out just by what's happening with these lock downs. they have been severe, the zero covid policy who would have thought it bought them time they could have maybe addressed the situation better i'm not sure it's been put to the best use >> i think you're right. there's a lot of criticism of the way this is being handled in china itself "a," the level of vaccine rollout particularly among older chinese and the effectiveness of the locally produced vaccine, and so far to china's refusible

to distribute m rna vaccines to the scale what we're seeing the reports i've seen indicates you've got some 22 cities across the country now with various stages of lock down. so you're looking about 200 million people affected, so that's getting out towards about 20% of the chinese economy, and i think this is going to continue to expand the most recent reports are of impending lock down in the south of the country after shanghai one of china's largest cities. >> i mean, have the authorities lost control at this point and especially the push back they're getting from their citizens with these lock downs and extreme measures being taken. people starving in their apartments >> there's been a lot of criticism of the way in which the government and the chinese communist party have handled this for example, in shanghai when you start to see banners appearing across the street from

the local party committees warning residents not to spread rumors or to go onto the internet about problems arising from the pandemic you know the local party apparatus is deeply concerned. for the future there are two things for us to bear in mind. one is so far the actual impact in terms of deaths or people seriously impacted by this outbreak of the pandemic has been relatively low. the real impact is the extreme measures in terms of lock down on the economy, and you see economists around the world now are revising down their growth projections not just for this quarter but for china's annual growth projection which before this stood about 5% growth >> what does that mean for the rest of the world? you know, china sneezes and the rest of world may get a cold, too. it's brought things down pretty substantially. >> i think the impact of what's

happening in china will be an overall economic slow down at least for the quarter ahead. as this works its way through across china's major cities and the regime's current policy is one of a rolling series of lockdowns, which of course means economic activity grinds to a halt across various slabs of the chinese economy. aggregate growth will therefore be down. major fore cast is revised growth down to about 4% for a year then when you look at the particular roll to the global economy what people have a razor sharp lens on is the further impact on the global supply chains of interpretation of chinese manufacturer and the impact staff has on inflation rates which is already affecting interest rates here in the united states. >> all right, let's maybe bring that out and think a little more long-term. this supply chain issue has been

so aggravated over the last cup of years we keep thinking we're getting to the end and then something else happens to make us realize it's not going to be easygoing from here. do you see major chachs from this with supply chains, with countries like the united states manufacturing more at home and less of this globalization that's certainly been posited by some big thinkers. >> well, a lot of debate in the united states and frankly europe and elsewhere, too, about home shoring, that is returning manufacturing capability and capacity from china to original countries of origin, the united states, the europeans and elsewhere but none of the questions get solved as a result of that overnight. what's going to happen over time i believe is you're going to see reshoring that is out of china to its called manufacturing friendly southeast asia and

south asia i think we may see evidence of that when i lost saw a poll from the american chamber of commerce membership in china they had some 20% of companies saying unless the chinese government began changing their covid lock down policy then they'd have to consider actively moving their plant elsewhere. >> kevin, given the relationship australia has with china, it's an important almost a sibiotic relationship for so many things, and, you know, given your past sort of embrace of zero carbon initiatives and what we see now in europe, in germany and, you know, whether the transition was being rushed, i'm just wondering what's the right move for australia right now in terms of an all in energy policy, whether you i don't know go back and revisit clean fossil fuel

alternatives and dealing so much with china in terms of their full speed ahead with coal power plants and the like, is it make s chase but not quite as soon as we thought before has your thinking evolved on any of that? >> i do love you very much the injunction may be chasable but not just yet on the question of climate change and renewable energy investment remember what's been embraced which is carbon neutrality by mid-century, that's 2050 with significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. >> i think it's going to come fast i don't think it's do-able without hurting a lot of countries that aren't in a

position >> the bottom line is each country will make adjustments according to the local energy circumstances. take the europeans, a big slab of the economy have now discovered there's geopolitical uncertainty coming out of oil and gas and coming out of russia you transition out of oil and gas elsewhere in the gulf or you accelerate renewable the truth is you're going to have a cocktail of these things done because geopolitics is actually causing insecurity in carbon based fuels and then you've got this slow trajectory in bringing up renewables to cover the gap i think we're going to see a lot of reliance on gas on the way through i think is an honest answer to your question. >> i agree with you. but you have to drill for gas. you have to drill. that's a hydrocarbon, and we almost cut off financing or at least for a lot of different forces perfect storm or making it difficult to plan long-term

for those types of initiatives, so we'll see what happens, but definitely sort of a rethinking of the whole move given vladimir putin's moves and what happened to europe. >> well, geopolitics is big here and climate change is happening at the same time if you were planning national energy policies, many of these major economy it's a god-awful mix of factors you've got to roll together in getting your transition right without damaging your economy. >> let's talk a bit about inflation. we're expecting cpi numbers here to be extreme, 8.4% year over year increase. china just had their number last week, 8.5% it's a global problem and something everyone is facing here i wonder with all that inflation how that adds to the geopolitical tensions, to the concerns, to the global supply chain issues we were just talking about. it's a difficult problem to get your arms around in the best of

times, but when you're talking about global inflation climbs like this it's much more problematic. >> if you're sitting in the u.s. fed or treasury at the moment you're looking at a massive is set of geopolitical factors beyond the macroeconomic factors you've got to roll into your planning accomplish if you were. if you look at doubling down to the east of the country we're going to enter what i think is more intense military activity agriculture and energy will be back big and second you've got these china factors we're already discussing basically third already pre-existing internal inflationary pressures in the united states. i think we're in for a rough economic year and it's going to take a lot of sober handling now that the fed and frankly central

banks around the world to not overreact because activity i think in the global economy is under some real pressure now >> i agree you mentioned the traseasury complex and that's a tricky one, too, with fed saying it's going to be a seller at this point it's not going to be a buy all the increase you can see in rates to this point can be chalked up to that before they even start really raising rates. different world. kevin, thank you very much for joining us again, kevin rudd we've got a lot more coming up on squawk including this katie stockton who's been so right about bitcoin. she's going to join us to break down bitcoin's latest moves as interest rates keep climbing and where it's all headed next bitcoin is now back above 40,000 it dipped slightly below a nice move this morning up

about 3.5 merse. a reminder you can watch us live -- you can do it anywhere you want it's on the cnbc app literally right now. "squawk box"omg ghba cinrit ck

welcome back to "squawk box. we're make our way towards 8:30 eastern time when the latest inflation numbers are out. the futures right now have turned positive across the board with the dow now up 16, nasdaq up 23. the ten year hovering just under 2.8 or at least it had been. still a little bit at 2.78%. and the dollar index which has been on a run over the past week as you can see continuing. and oil prices which are sharply higher this morning up almost 4% >> we're not going to say welcome back to "squawk box" though we could. the analyst priets in part this,

quote, in addition to broader inflation pressures slash risks, management changes and unionization pushes could be tied to additional partner investments and new initiatives on the horizon present additional unknown for forward looking estimates. and also points to china lockdowns as a headwind for starbucks. analyst argues shares should be trading near lows relative to the s&p 500. kind of an interesting thought i do think they're going to have to spend more money. there's mow question they're going to have to invest in the stores i don't know it's going to be more esg initiatives or something else, but i think the china piece -- it may be a better way long-term to improve the stocks >> the labor issue is a big one. that's why they're going back to try to make it as smooth as possible >> talking about a seattle based company special programming note on thursday 8:30 eastern time

right here on "squawk box" wave got an exclusive interview with amazon ceo andy jassy, jeff bezos' successor we'll hear his take on the supply chain, state of the consumer, big bets on the tech giant and so much more also do some other interviews as well with a number of folks from amazon on wednesday. and i'm headed out there tomorrow >> you've got to ask the president said amazon we're coming for you you've got to ask how does that feel to be in the cross hairs? >> maybe we'll take this tape of you asking that and -- >> that's fine but you're uncomfortable asking that >> no. >> because it's such a american success story and in terms of inflation and everything else it's such a net positive >> it wouldn't be the first time a president has taken -- put the target on the last president

>> too bad it's not in long island city. >> big interview, lots to talk about. there's so many issues >> he's such an interesting character and so little known at this point but the stuff i've read about him has been amazing this guy looks like what you see is what you get. he's someone built on what jeff bezos used to be in terms ofuber efficient, there with his family, making sure she's driving nondescript cars coming into this, has a love of life and sports >> it's going to be a fascinating interview and a great introduction of our audience to him. >> he doesn't buy cash probably at this point. he's doing well you would say? >> he's buying gas and he's

tot totally 100% not changing, too >> so i should keep doing it then >> they can't find anybody who will say anything bad about this guy. >> he's one of the nice guys nice guys can finish first he's one of them all right, when we come back the technical signals in bitcoin's recent vault tilt. first though as we head to break another programming note earnings season kicking off this week, and tomorrow we'll be talking delta's latest numbers that exclusive interview comes your way just after 00.m7: a. eastern time tomorrow. don't go anywhere. "squawk box" will be right back.

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bitcoin hovering right around $40,000 after dipping below that level for the first time in a month our next guest believes this is a key price for the crypto currency. joining us now katie stockton and that was the support level it did trade below that. what would happen for it to reach that level how long would it have to -- where would it have to go below 40 and how long would it have to be there for you to say 20,000 is the next objective as far as the down side? >> it's definitely subjective. for us we like to see an intermediate term level like this 40,000 fold so it's giving

a lot of wiggle room, of course. it doesn't matter it got below yesterday briefly. we just want to make we don't see consecutive friday closes below that 40,000 because it is such a major level and we're willing to wait that out there are indications bitcoin is short-term oversold right as it comes to this support level. and we also want to contextualize the pull back just over 18% and we have a very volatile sort of gradual up trend channel as of that january low. >> and the last year or so has not been positive in terms of long-term objectives in your view or i guess there would be intermediate term objectives there's been deterioration there, but you do think it could get back to higher levels but maybe not all-time highs >> you know, as long as that 40,000 level is intact as support the break out from march for bitcoin was targeted about #

1,000 is still very much intact, so we still have our eyes on that resistance level as an objective on bitcoin and we're constructive short and intermediate term. to your point it's long-term where we see the deterioration we've seen a very meaningful loss of long-term up side momentum, that tells us perhaps beyond the next few weeks or couple months for bitcoin that maybe it's range bound -- range bound with a whole lot of volatility up from a short-term perspective. >> is it worthwhile for me to ask you your valuation model or is it just too in the weeds technically for us to even mess around with? >> i mean i could always give it some sort of definition here is it's called the cloud model and also called the -- i don't know

if anyone's ever said that on-air it's a japanese model and very common for analyzing currencies and also crypto currencies so both on daily and weekly charts of bitcoin it is pointing higher and shows support >> it's not like a stock flow or something that actually tries to measure what something is worth based on replacement or -- so that's good enough >> all price based >> okay. so in terms of saying that it's -- that equities are correlated how do you know whether one's leading or they're not just moving together, or how much of a lag do you see between -- at this point you said crypto might be leading equities how do you know it's not happening at the same time with assets how do you decide one is moving ahead of the other >> i guess it doesn't matter all that much. we do know the correlations are

high the 90-day correlation between bitcoin and the nasdaq 100 is at an all-time high so it's a real thing it's not just something we're sensing from the marketplace right now. i think the function is of the volatility we've seen this year and volatility both to the up side and the down side, and you can see that also in the volatility index and we really believe that and throughout that regime folks are inclined that doesn't include high growth stocks and/or bitcoin >> i wonder what the size of the global bond market is. so we should talk about that what about the ten year? thality ebprobably is especially

we've got the numbers coming today, the cpi we've got all the fed watchers are in high gear so what do you see in the ten-year, katie? >> if anybody ever doubts that momentum is a force in the market i think they just have to look at that chart of ten-year treasury yields. it has strong up side momentum and every overbought signal or indication that we've had has basically been stomped out, if you will, just with very minor consolidation phase. so we're not seeing that kind of reaction and it's a testament to the momentum behind it it did clear the level we talked about last time and done pretty decisively at this point we're still waiting for that second weekly close above which would put next resistance up to 2018 highs it actually lifts the ten-year treasury yield out of a multidecade down turn channel.

it doesn't mean it goes straight up from here as it does recently but does suggest it'll move higher this career >> so 3.5 this year? >> it could be based on the interest trajectory of the trend and also for the fact all those we like to track have been cleared and they generate these targets that usually are reached within months not years. >> i don't want you to delve into anything fundamental but do things start with the overall economy? does 3.5 does it accomplish what the fed would be trying to do in terms of demand or what's the objective after that any way you can figure out a terminal rate from technical analysis from this cycle >> i wish i could. i don't know how we get to that magic number but it would be a natural place for ten-year treasury yields to reach and then take pause for a long

duration or correct pretty significantly. we have seen kind of interestingly the spreads come off their lows pretty dramatically over the last week or so. and that is something almost feels like a technical phenomenon and something that probably gives way to con consolidation. >> a lot of interesting things to consider. would you say, katie, honestly how much is art and how much is science for what you do? is it 50-501234. >> i think it depends who you talk to. i'm very ori wanted to technical indicators and approach it mathematically but there's a high level of subjecty so i'm going to give you a balanced answer and say probably 50-50. >> science is important.

51, 49 maybe i'm not going to say which coming up in just a little bit representative kevin brady is going to join us on how congress is working to combat rising cost of inflation and the upcoming mid-terms and so much more stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc welcome to your world. your why. what drives you? what do you want to leave behind? that's your why. it's your purpose,

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good morning we've got some breaking economic news a key read on inflation and it's coming just 30 minutes away. also energy a huge part of the story. goldman's head of commodity research jeff curry is going to be our special guest plus what, if anything, can or should washington be doing about rising consumer prices we're going to be asking that question to texas congressman kevin brady as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm joe kernen along with becky

quick and andrew ross sorkin and what's happening inflation, consumer price index due out at 8:30 eastern. probably maybe we look forward at least in terms of interest more than even the jobs report at this point and a couple of these recent numbers we've seen, because if it is 8.4 that's as high as anything we've seen since 1981 wherefore casters are as far as year over year u.s. equity futures, though, have managed to at least stabilize and green slightly after the move down we saw yesterday and treasuries i guess you'd call it orderly running above be.8%

>> i think the 30-year mortgage has gone to 5.25% >> wouldn't it be much higher than your other four mortgages or about the same? >> i don't have four mortgages even with this look, it'll be higher because rates have been historically low levels and historically a high price but you have to worry about the delta change also in our headlines this morning shares of deutsche bank down sharply this morning. the firm's second largest shareholder, capital group, sold the stake at more than 5%

yesterday. so now we know who that seller was. there reportedly was a simultaneous share of commerzbank shares then there are shares of hewlett hewlett hewlett-packard enterprise morgan stanley says they see softening orders in the second half of 2022 also carmax shares lower after the auto retailer posted the bottom line miss for the latest quarter. and saverage selling prices continued to rise although we heard from toyota and phil on the show a bit ago talking about maybe we're getting near the prices where consumers really hit their stopping point things can't go much higher from

here, he thinks. which i guess that means it only eats into company margins after that meantime back to this morning emphasis top story, the 8:30 release of the consumer price index inflation remains front and center so much for small businesses details of the report. >> good morning. as you said this month's reading for march is all about inflation. nearly a third of owners said inflation was their singest biggest problem. and the highest reading since the first quarter of 1981, the group says it's also now replacing labor quality as the number one problem. this is leading to higher selling prices and that is the highest reading and the chief economist saying, quote, inflation has spread rather faster and more widely than the virus. it infects everyone. inflation overall leading to the

number of owners who believe business conditions will improve in the next six months fell 14% to a negative 49%. that's the lowest level in the survey's history labor is still an issue as well, but costs and supply seems to ebe weighing heavily on owners at this moment it's important to know nfib does lag so we'll be watching for next month's reading >> one of the questions, though, i think has the supply chain situation we've been following improved at all in all of this >> so that is also a key issue for small businesses as we mentioned inflation number one, labor number two, but about 40% of owners say supply chain problems are still impacting their business >> we're going to leave itther and we'll be looking for that number at 8:30 this morning. and major banks getting

ready to rollout quarterly results, but investors are not been jumping on stocks as rates move higher and leslie picker joins us now for a closer look at the financial sector. i can't wait until the prime rate up every three days when it goes up it goes up really fast. when it comes down it's like listening to final jeopardy -- you can twiddle your thumbs but when it goes up it goes up because we're going to be in those days soon. >> remember cds, people used to actually take those out. we'll see if that starts shaping up to your point earlier this year investors had started piling into bank stocks when rates rise, but then sentiments shifted in the middle of the quarter over concern a war in ukraine and supply chain issues would cause the fed to hike more than the market initially anticipated. suddenly bank stocks sold off over fears of recession. on average according to a recent note the largest banks

outperformed the s&p on a market cap basis by 13 basis points through mid-february and then underperformed by 1500 basis points through quarter end just to kind of put that in perspective higher rates serve as a tail wind because they can serve more for the loans as they pay out for depositors boosting their margins for loan making. when it became clear a few weeks ago the fed would have to hike this aggressively the risk really overshadowed the potential benefits but have bank investors become too pessimistic while overlook the positive of rates and really echo their concerns that's why investors will be paying close attention to what jamie diamond has to say and of course known for being very candid and telling it like he sees it, guys >> it seems a little different

this time. oh, boy, you never want to say that, leslie, but i wonder how you always think about elasticity and how consumers react to higher prices it's never been after we've not done anything for two years before we've never been locked up climbing the walls like we have been for two years, so i wonder if consumers become less price sensitive because they're going to do it no matter what? they're going to go on a trip, go to a restaurant, maybe they haven't spent as much or we don't feel like we've done as much the last couple of years as we used to does that offset some of the hesitancy to spend at a higher level? >> i think that's going to be the key question because there's one thing -- on one hand people are spending more. that's obviously great putting more on credit cards and so forth, that's a great thing. on the other hand, though, as you kind of look at the bigger macropicture and inflation and how paying for higher gas prices

is impacting peoples ability to pay rent and other things, what does that mean for the credit quality of these consumers i think is a another thing and so speaking with analysts and investors and bank stocks that's something they're also going to be really, really tuned into from executives this week, this idea do they see a pretty healthy consumer out there still jamie diamond said so in his letter a few weeks ago or is that shifting like higher gas prices, food prices and that seeping into their food quality? >> how much of that is -- consumers have a lot more in their bank accounts than they have in the past and savings rate went up pretty significantly, and my guess is people can spend. >> but we've got to a take a walk in other peoples shoes, too. >> if you have money you spend it and you don't have it

>> there's too much to spend and you're beyond your means already. >> i think that divide has gotten greater over the last couple of years. it hasn't narrowed we don't have any idea i don't think. when we come back texas congressman kfben brady the lead republican on the house ways and means committee what he wants investors to know about what's going on in washington right now also as we head to a break check out today's biggest premarket winners and losers it's up about 3.1% this morning. stick around this is "squawk box. we're live from the nasdaq market site from new york's times square this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq,

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comcast business. powering possibilities.™ welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. check out the futures this morning. some green arrows right now. the dow was negative earlier this morning now indicated up about 54 points. as we tick closer and closer to that 8:30 inflation number that we know is going to be a hot one. s&p futures up by 11, nasdaq up

54 >> in a recent nbc news poll over 60% of working families said their income cannot keep up with skyrocketing inflation. joining us now to discuss what congress can do is texas congressman kevin brady. he's the lead republican on the ways and means committee it's always good to see you, congressman. welcome. i want to have a meeting of the minds here and demagoguery free it's always hard to get that on either side of the aisle and let's talk about i've seen a chart making its way on social media that shows where inflation took off, and i don't know they peg it to inauguration day in 2021 and it does coincide with that, but i'm just trying to figure out exactly what we think happened in terms of legislation and proposals from the biden administration because we're

dealing with covid so we try to help people out and a lot of stimulus got out there at the same time we were reopening and there were supply chain problems so you've got too much money chasing too few goods, so that's probably what caused most of the inflation, but how could we have done anything differently just in terms of trying to deal with covid? >> yeah, and i think a fair assessment of this is that it didn't necessarily start on president biden's inauguration day, but certainly in march when democrats ran through that $1.9 trillion american rescue plan that's when inflation took off in a serious way and continued to accelerate. right now we'll see the new numbers this morning and anything over 0.4% is another monthly pay cut for families and workers. i also think there was a hangover from some of the covid area programs that had very lavish unemployment benefits, very lavish health care benefits

and a child tax credit no longer tied to work i think that exacerbated the worker shortage, which, again made inflation and prices harder and higher for longer. so i think those were the key elements, the spending, the timing and i think benefits that extended way beyond where the recovery demanded it >> that's reasonable we didn't do build back better we did do a bipartisan infrastructure bill. has that added anything to inflation at this point? that hasn't really been spent yet, has it? >> yeah, as you know infrastructure takes a long time to spin down some of the stimulus money the president spent state and local governments tend to have sticky fingers and that can take quite a while to go through the economy as well. what we didn't see is any if sentives to drive workers back to their jobs. in fact, there seems to be almost a denial of that worker shortage

secondly, i think these looming tax hikes they're still out there in the senate. i think that's creating real problems as well because from what i hear from our local business worker shortage still high, and inflation as you noted has become the biggest concern but in my town hall meetings i did yesterday from small businesses they're asking about potential tax hikes. in this economy that end up in higher prices as well. so i think that's a worry. >> then you add putin and invasion of ukraine that probably doubled down on all the price pressure you saw you're saying psychologically the prospect of some piecemeal build back better tax increases, that's having some type of inflationary impact? >> inflation not yet worry on investment from main street businesses, yes, because, again, the president is talking

about higher taxes nearly every week we know where that ultimately lands. right now we ought to be -- frankly, countries like brazil are lowering their business rates to combat inflation. we ought to be driving more investment in the u.s. especially along the supply chain, new equipment, new technology, new innovation ought to be what the administration is championing, but they are still stuck on some form of build back better, and even if you look back on the trimmed down versions you're talking about a trillion and a half tax hikes on traders at the worst possible time and they pay attention to this >> that's probably not going to see the light of day >> we're doing our best to make sure that doesn't happen i think senator sinema understands just how damaging those tax hikes are. >> we did the spr release. just today what else could the administration do to try and

help what about gas tax relieves? what else is in -- would be the republican play book for how to deal what's going to be a hideous number most likely today? >> joe, great question i would start with a declaration we're going to end-all covid era programs that are driving up inflation in any meaningful way. secondly, we are making a real focus on reconnecting workers back to their jobs, something we just haven't seen. thirdly, i would declare from president biden no tax hikes that drive up prices further or discourage investment in the u.s. obviously, look, gas prices will cost an average family about $2,000 more this year. the president ought to be revving gimmicks by -- he ought to be talking about how do we gear up more production here in the u.s. it doesn't happen overnight but the signals of it drive investment quickly >> the sanctions aren't coming

off anytime soon i don't know whether we get tougher and whether we make it more difficult for russia to sell oil and energy products anywhere if that happens it's just going ihigher and probably going to do that the depressing news today it really doesn't look like putin is anywhere near -- i don't know he's not feeling remorse, not -- just redeploying where it could be even more brutal. we're going to see -- we'll see what happens but it's not looking positive, so what should we be doing on that front, kevin? more sanctions >> i actually think it was good finally that congress passed the ban on russian purchasing russian oil and favored nation status because i think that gives us a chance to lower inincome coming to russia, but we need to be helping our european allies faster and i

think that's where we turn on the green light for exporting more lng from texas, for example, i think we can play it big role in leading the european union off that i think that would be helpful. i think secondary sanctions is pretty critical. >> very good, congressman. thanks >> good to see you april is 4, november is that 11, so it's like six, seven months it's a long time, a long time. >> yes, sir. >> but i don't know you see any portion of build back better getting done >> you know, right now i think the short answer is i think they're still trying and on the table. i think each month it gets less likely and the strategy has moved to take individual parts of it, spending more and sending out single bills all whichi

think has little chance in the senate, so the house seem to be taking a different approach. >> and if you're a betting man that's going to be a speaker in november >> yes, sir, i will be i think it's going toswi in a big way and as i watch my republican colleagues this commitment to america, really you're going to see a refocus back on the economy, workers, on families, on businesses where it belongs. >> congressman, thank you. >> good to see you coming up when we return the final count down on the most important data point of the day, the week and probably the month. we're going to be getting the march consumer price index it's coming up when "squawk box" comes right back

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coming up, breaking inflation news, the march consumer price index, the cpi and instant market reaction which there could be some. plus energy prices a big part of the story. we're going to talk to goldman's head of commodity research, jeff curry. a wide array of bull markets in that arena stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

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it is that time. we're less than a minute now in fact we're 35, 40 seconds from march cpi everything is green barely 50 on the nasdaq the dow is down from market

session, tough session yesterday. s&p up about 9 the ten-year note has created 2.769 at this point. and we did have a spike to some extent in a certain rise, but oil still just below 100% a barrel as far as wti rick santelli and steve liesman are standing by. rick, the number, please >> headline incomes in as expected, hot, hot and up 1.2% that means that's the highest month over month inflation rate since 2005 if we strip out the all important food and energy it's up 0.3, and well below the high-water mark which is april that was the highest in 41 years so we definitely eased back. now let's go to the year over

year numbers 8.5% remains a 40-year high and you have to go back to 1981 and finally we're looking at year over year core and comes in at 6.5, taking out the 6.4 so up at 6.5 we're now looking once again to comp back to 8 # and that remains the same with respect to comping, and the reason is because in '82 we traded all the way up to 9.1%, so you can see 6.5 has some room to continue to go back to the same point four decades plus, and that really is the issue, isn't it? now, if we adjust earnings for inflation and look at hourly earnings we're down 2.7% and adjusted for inflation over weekly year on year earnings and down 6%, and this is something to pay attention to. we're all together for the last big jobs report and we saw a

historic year over year wage gains at 6% but best recordkeeping since '97. we can see it doesn't keep up with inflation, so these numbers are all hot and something to pay attention to we know the federal reserve definitely was on the shoulder of the road thinking inflation would be moderating and of course addressing some of these very issues. you know, their long-term models still say it's going back to 2% or maybe the change will come down to 2% at some point but the gains where we stick on the board is going to remain higher than what it was and that's really what the middle class and most people in america understand joe, back to you >> why the moves >> so you said they're pretty good at getting these right, so i'm not implying there's a -- either you are -- i'm not implying there's a whisper

number of something even worse than what we're seeing, so that's probably not what ware seeing, but maybe when you back out energy and food, is there some moderation in some of the other things we're watching, steve? why do you think the market reacted positively, and why did the ten-year drop down to 1.72 >> maybe because it wasn't worse than expected. there's some whisper number and that could come from the idea from from the initial price there's a time lag that a lot of stuff goes on. there could be some producers out there and companies, something to watch out for in all these ceo interviews we do here is is there profit margin pressure do they absorb some of that and not pass it onto the consumer. these numbers are pretty spot on on where the street or forecasters were expecting a touch hotter a couple areas energy up 11%,

food up 1%, and doesn't sound like a lot but that's a lot. you're 8.8% on food year over year the only thing decent in there and your used car prices were down and i'm going to double-check this number, 3.8% and still up 39% on the year so dent get too excited, but at least for this month they were down and we had that video bill brought us today from he doesn't think from toyota there's much relief coming in vehicle prices. >> that's an important point we're seeing certain areas like used car prices come down a bit. but in the near-term when you compare that to how much they originally went up, it's the same thing the government is saying, wow, look how we reversed the national debt or

the deficit. same thing when you have giant spikes small drops may look like something larger but i have something. you asked a good question and i traded a lot back in the day and let's say you shorted bonds expecting inflation numbers to be hot, hot, hot, and they were hot. you see you're right and all of a sudden you don't see yields spiking. it was the nervousness and positions before the numbers now those people who had the right positions are trying to finesse their way out of those positions. when that all clears i fully suspect you might see some upward pressure again but fear going into big numbers whether it's job report or inflation data or federal reserve meetings usually see interest rates sometimes peak before the event occurs >> let me ask you one thing the quick moves we've seen in treasury yields and this big step up, how much of that is because of the expectation that the fed is going to be raising

rates more aggressively, and how much of that is the idea they're not going to be the big buyer? if they're not doing that anymore obviously that's going to drive up yields, too. how do you break that down >> you know, a lot of people are trying to make some big hey on the notion that the yen of course is close to 20-year lows versus the dollar. is that going to make a big difference now the fed of course is going to stop buying? look at the state of the globe we grade on a curve. the u.s. is going to draw capital, and there'll be many countries in my opinion to replace the federal reserve in purchasing our debt at least for a while to see how the government gets on track or control of some of the big issues we face and in terms how interest rates are moving the fed is using and

baiting the markets to go higher to do the work they failed to do in a timely fashion. and ultimately the intersection ahead is rates most likely are going to come back down to meet the federal reserve at some slower growth point in the future >> 1981, let's see, i remember i remember i don't know what you're doing, rick i was starting as a retail broker >> i was listening to lionel richy. >> i was in a training class for merrill lynch. it makes me wonder we had 40 great years of stock and bond action and i just wonder it seems kind of now we made the round trip back to those numbers. >> we didn't have delusions we

could that they're really going to be able to recycle these horrible batteries i don't know. >> are you talking about a ski slope people are looking at a mogul? is that what you said? >> yeah, like skiing >> i'm afraid of those because i know i'm going to cross my tips probably and take a header or something. so that's a very good analogy and i understand do you ever worry? your knees are still so good you're just like a shock absorber on the moguls do you worry about them? >> i don't worry about them. >> i'm not like racing down. >> but you can't traverse.

i'll take my time. >> you never cross your tips >> i try not to. >> don't we all. thank you. rick said he was listening to lionel richie, oh, my god. >> i'm just looking best of times by stix, hold on tight, who's crying now by journey. >> 780 on the dow. do you believe that? that was a good buy. in the meantime oil price a huge part of the inflation story and joining us right now is jeff curry. and you had called this kind of super spike we've seen in commodities from a couple years ago. since that call commodities have been up incredibly sharply i think one of indexes that

tracks these up about 125% does it continue >> actually,yes. it's about the supply and demand of the capital used to create those barrels of oil and whether if it's capital markets retreating because of esg constraints or credit through bank lending, retreating because of, you know, leverage ratio constraints at this point right now this market is severely constrained of capital, and you see the implications no investment in terms of greenfield capx or any type of longer-term capacity expansions. you don't see the investors in these markets. you see liquidation of financial positions and inventories across

the board. and think about this market is twice as high as where it was a year ago, so it needs twois as much capital, and it does not have that capital, so this is a very serious problem, and also want to point outright now today you're at the weakest point in time we had covid pressures in china likely to be temporary and you have the spr which is temporary. these are not long-term solutions to a structural problem. they're much more temporary. >> we know anecdotally that capital has been more constrained. is there any real data that points to just how much more constrained it is, how much capital available now versus two, three years ago >> you look at the flow of funds into the sector. you know, over the course of the last year, out of 300 billion, a billion went into actual commodity funds so the restrictions are significant then when we look at overall cap

x into oil, over the last five years we're down 35% and you look at the demand levels today are higher than they were pre-covid. by the way, just look at open interest in the oil market it has collapsed just in the last 12 months you look at funding of positions of, you know, commodity investors, you know, back in '08 they were $300 billion and today running about 2$220 billion there's no money in the sector >> let's talk through the politics of this last week you had all these ceos of big oil companies get called before congress and get accused of price gouging basically and being blamed for higher oil prices because they're not spending more capital as you're just talking about that was what the democrats were

saying republicans on the other side said this was all the biden administration's fault because they've setup these policies to make it more difficult to drill, make it less inviting and push out capital because, you know, people don't want to be looking at an industry they think is going to be gone in 10, 15 years. you're a numbers guy and you look at this very analytically, where do you think the numbers lie and how do you think they get fixed? >> this is not a problem that's developed in the last year or two years or since, you know, post-covid this is a problem that goes back to '08, '09. we call it the revenge of the old economy. investors shun any investment going back since 2010. basically they preferred netflix over exxon they saw capital get redirected to the new economy, choking off the old. again, this is not an oil story.

look at grains and metals. that number you cited up 125% is the entire commodity complex, so this is not unique to oil. then you can throw the esg concerns on top of that. the banking regulations that restrict leverage ratios how do we solve this problem, you've got to move capital into the space. you look at returns and commodities funds are up substantially. in some cases 70%, but where is the capital still going? it's going into growthy type of investments. that mentality needs to change you've got to start moving capital into these value type investments. i think the push back we get from investors they go it's peaky. no, this is just the beginning this is multiyear potentially decades long commodity super

cycle the only way you're going to solve this is through capital investment >> what usually drives investments is big returns like that >> let's go back to the 2000s. that super cycle started in '03. in '06 you were from 20 in 77 and finally the cap came in. by the way in metals the capital didn't come until '08, five years after the first move in prices and went from 1,600 to 8,800. and capital started flowing significantly '08, '09 and by '11, '12 you'd solved the

problem. and by 1979, '80, it was done. and actually you had a lot of investment that came into that sector and deep water, alaska, north sea, mexico, and i can keep going down the list >> that's really good interesting perspective. we follow that boom and bust all the way through. i goes if you're looking at your crystal ball trying to figure out how long the super spike lasts obviously you don't know when the capital comes in, but can you say with absolute conviction this is a bubble that keeps building for the next two years? >> you're in a volatility trap right now. what i mean is the higher the volatility the less interested investors are in putting capital work in the space which does, what makes the volatility go higher and we're in that vicious circle

where volatility is going higher look at oil prices since the beginning of the year. volatility is running 150% that's not a market investors want to put money into it. we made a point over and over in the early 2000s the only way you break that cycle is to create incentives for the vestors to come in against that spot prices solve surpluses, long-term contracts solve shortages. we have a shortage right now the only way you get through this is to lock in some type of return and protect yourself from this type of volatility. so we've got a long ways to go and i think there's going to be a lot more up side, but i want to emphasize it's going to be a lot of volatility right now.

>> thank you for giving me something to think about because that is a different perspective. good to see you, jeff. >> minus 37 we should have loaded up. >> trump actually wanted to load up the spr at that point and people didn't want to -- >> coming up we're going to continue this conversation and head down to the new york stock exchange and get jim cramer's first take on today's inflation data and plus a programming note thursday right here on "squawk box" don't miss an exclusive interview with amazon ceo andy jassy live from amazon's campus in seattle you don't want to miss it. you're watching squawk on cnbc

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highs of the premarket session, 207 on the dow nasdaq really strong up 243. let's get to the new york stock exchange jim cramer joins us now. you have made the case in recent weeks that there are certain commodities that looked like they were rolling over a little bit. >> absolutely. >> we heard jeff say use that to get long like it's a respite. no >> i don't know if i can do that i mean, i think i look at car max, which is probably the most important thing that happened today, and that's in sync with the idea that used car prices would come down and availability of chips that could have new cars come down food is real bad but food is -- there's so many different forces i think that gasoline is not going to be that bad, some of the things that biden is doing overall, i think people are going to start making -- in the markets making a case this is the last bad number. last bad number causes some big relief

i think you and i both know you see lumber down a lot, used cars down a lot you got a couple of things, steel could be rolling over. but things are still very inflated i thought the average hourly wages it's almost like i thought it was wrong that it's down. i don't know, joe. the market is telling you what it thinks, which is maybe this is peak. i don't think anyone wants to believe it's peak because we're riding this one. mortgage rates up to 5.25 in two weeks? >> i hope you're right this is peak >> that will bite. we did say, jim, that people who can afford to are going to pay up, because it is -- >> yes >> but people that can't afford to you only have what you have. >> but you have andy jassy coming up, andy is a one man cpi deflator there are a lot of forces at work trying to figure out let's

figure out how to do this, get costs down, get freight down freight for some people for spot markets is down 35% year over year freight is still really high year over year, but the fact this is going in the right direction, you have freight, used car going in the right direction. you don't have food going in the right direction. you have mortgages obviously making a slow down or else you wouldn't see lows in home depot rolling over i can make a strong case we may have peak inflation in a lot of different areas. if food rolled over -- i don't know how that happens -- but i know jeff curry has good points about metals you don't want to be in them i don't like super cycle, you hear super cycle, please, no not super cycle. i do like oil a lot, though. i like oil. >> are you still in king's, why pay less

i can't walk in without 40 bucks. you're here, give me 40 bucks. i get three things. >> those chickens held $8.85 the chickens they used to be -- the fat ones were 9 and 10, they're drawing the line on chickens, joe. they're drawing the line. >> i said a long time, the problem with chickens is there's only two wings we can do something about that we haven't genetically. think about that, you only get two wings per chicken. think of how many people eat chicken wings on super bowl sunday we have the technology why not. we want to remind you about the new cnbc inest having club sign up at cnbc or point your re -e at the code on the scen- does that really work? >> it does >> it's amazing. like a menu at a restaurant, that works intuit quickbooks

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welcome back to squawk the ten year treasury yield falling following the marked cpi data the market likes this. do you think that jim is right is the market saying -- is the market speaking? in is this the last bad number tree >> an dry, i don't believe that at all i think the bad numbers are going to keep coming and if you think in terms of why the ten year yield dropped in the last few minutes, that's been the history of the ten year

yield over the last year i've been on your program repeatedly and been asked every time when the yield came down why i was still anticipating a 2% yield on the ten year and i thought it would hit 2% and now i continue to say we are going to hit 3% if not higher, andrew the reason is fuel prices are going to remain high the russia/ukraine crisis continues and we still haven't dealt with the possibility that russia could stop off any energy exports. and that would be a big push up for energy inflation and overall inflation. so we are hardly done yet with this problem >> so you think these inflation numbers are hardly over. but you're starting to see them at least come down in terms of used car pricing, seeing some chips come back on the market, what does that mean to new car pricing. we were talking before about lumber how do you square that with the energy piece or is there other

parts? >> lumber has come down due to special factors we expect lumber from canada with easier trade relationship we have a push but when you look at areas like steel, steel is affected by not only russian and ukraine exports but it is also affected, andrew by the fact that steel requires a lot of energy to get produced and that inturn pushes the price up you have had used car prices come down, food prices have increased substantially as the food and agricultural organization said about 13% since february not analyzed just cumulative in the last few months and 45% over the past year. and rents are starting to increase this was an expectation of mine a few months ago and rents are going to continue to go up so used car prices are no relief for me if i have to pay higher

rent and higher price for food >> we have to leave the conversation there as the program ends we do appreciate your perspective on it. and boy, have you been right we look forward to speaking with you again very soon. >> thank you, andrew. markets are higher this morning, at least for this moment folks seem to think that maybe things are looking better. make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" jbegins right now. good tuesday morning, welcome to squawk on the street i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer futures get a bounce here cpi, the fastest annual rates since '81 comes in light on mothly core. ten year yield drops about a dozen bases points and that's where we begin this morning, the massive inflation number jumping 8.5 year on year it is the highest year on year gain since the early