growing earnings estimates >> okay. and josh brown >> dutch bros, caffeine is in the session proof and i think when you look at the chart, you can see what i see higher lows. the buyers are stepping in earlier each time. >> thanks, guys. see you in overtime. that does it for us. the exchange is now. thank you, scott hi, everybody. here's what's ahead. inflation hitting a 40-year high and the markets seem to think we may have seen the worst of it. is that sentiment premature and will it change anything when it comes to the fed's rate hike plan plus from the streaming wars to the box office battle, we speak with the ceo of paramount pictures the stock is up 20% so far this year can the top gun sequel keep it at a cruising altitude and a read on airlines we have the action, the story, and the trade on three names that report today's earnings

exchange we begin today with a markets and we're looking at markets still higher but we are off the session highs. look at the dow here up by .4%. the high in the dow was 361 na361% snap half a percent. the naz sdaq 100 led -- energy spiking as well. shanghai lists covid earns and opec warns of tight supplies transocean, marathon, occidental are the leaders. the ten-year yield moving lower after the highest levels of december of 2018 earlier in the session. we've got the latest auction results in the ten-year just a few minutes. earlier today jeffrey gunlocke sounding bullish on prices >> inflation is peaking because of the base effects are going to

be somewhat favorable. we had some pretty big month over month prints in the middle of 2021. that i don't think is likely to recur. so we power at peak, but it's going to be sticky >> our next guest agrees but doesn't think it will change the fed's rate hike plan at the next meeting. he expects a 50 basis point hike joining us head of macro strategy at wells fargo. mike, great to have you with us. the point here is the sticky word i think that's what i would underscore in that sount byte. we may have seen the peak, but it's going to stick around how does that impact the consumer >> it's interesting. you think about this from a fed standpoint, inflation probably peaks guaranteed pretty likely, but does the fed care about inflation? 11 months ago? no the fed is moving forward and saying what's the outlook over the next three to six months inflation standpoint, not that great month to month

so we at the fed have to tighten aggressively we think it's going to earn -- and continues on >> 50 seems to be a forgone conclusion by most folks your thoughts on that aren't necessarily a surprise what do you see in terms of the next couple of meetings? do we see sequential 50 basis point hikes? >> the market is priced for that it's interesting when you think about the federal, in a couple weeks it's going to announce balance sheet reductions likely. and lots of people in the market speculated about this. this has been a popular topic, especially for the last few weeks. it's a combination of rate hikes, balance sheet and a potent cocktail. does it mean the fed is going to go 50 in may and 50 in june? it's likely. it's not locked in at this point, but i think a very big rate hike in may plus the balance sheet reduction is almost a given

>> how do you think we'll see this inflationplay out in term of the consumer and its behavior over the next 6 to 12 months the new york fed consumer was interesting. the outlook was 6.5%, the highest on record as far back as when the data was collected. the longer this is embedded in the consumer mind set, houchl more damaging is that instead of just one headline number in any given month? >> yes that's the point does this become part of the consumer psyche to people with jobs that say i should negotiate harder far raise or union members push more aggressively that's the worry first base policy makers and the fed. the risk is if the fed goes relatively slow and light in terms of rate hikes and behavior becomes more entrenched. one thing talking to our economics team about is what is the inflation rate let's say toward the end of this year? if it's still 4% plus, it's dangerous for the fed. the fed wants to get that number

sub three and set a good path for inflation by '23 it's very concerned about this becoming really a reinforcement. they don't want that at all. that's a bad scenario. >> i spoke to you on fast money at 5:00 sometime mid march, end of march timeframe, and at that time you said the fed needs to put grit in the wheels of business and it feels like a different picture at this point. how much grit do you think goes into these wheels and would you agree more along with what christopher said that it's going to be a hammer, the impact on the economy could be more like a hammer as opposed to your grit metaphor >> let's hope it's grit and not a hammer hammered things the end to break. i prefer to stick to the grit, but it's interesting if you're the fed you run the risk of going a little bit slowly and hoping things work out well or taking the hammer to it and saying odds are when you overshoot, but at least we'll

stem the chance of bad problems down the road. i think the jury is out. there are a number of people the fed would like to go with the hammer approach. it's not clear to us jay powell is among them. and jay powell is going to drive the bus. when you think about the fed governors, i think it's very likely the case they'll follow powell's lead. if chairman powell says you have this shoe mocker guy at wells fargo, we have to take the hammer up, then i think they go that way, but i'm not convinced he's ready to go yet we'll stay with the grit >> i guess the real hope is we don't need the hammer. mike, stand by for a minute. we want to get the results of the ten-year note auction. rick santelli is tracking the action at the cme. >> it was not pretty we're talking 34 billion reopen tens so call it nine year ten month the yield at the dutch auction, 2 .27% about four basis points above

where the one issued market was trading. pricing was messy. deminus, dog minus is the grade, and there weren't any internals that looked very good. the bid to cover was weak. tin directs were weak. the only thing that even matched up with the ten auction average was direct bidders at 17 % dealers took nearly 19%, the biggest amount since april of last year. just not a pretty auction. and you can see looking at the charts that we popped on yields sold off right after the results were out everybody is probably scratching their head why we had a big concession. yields were going down i resistance at 2.28% in tens. other technicians did as well. this goes to show you many investors thought it didn't pay to be aggressive in this auction and catch that falling knife despite the fact that even though we reached all inflation targets this morning, basically, so you could say the whisper number was high, the reality is

the worst number of the month in consumer price index is in the rear-view mirror they took a breather but not enough to jump in the pool of buying the tens. >> thank you for the update. mike, back over to you i want to ask you about what you see for yields, because you say you see an inversion and a pretty big one by the end of the year >> we do and the curve inversion a little bit when we talk about the difference between the two-year and ten-year treasury yield. the reason we think it's going to go invert is because we think the fed is going to buy aggressively and fairly soon that's going to push the short-term to two-year, three-year treasury. longer term rates are set by global markets so think about the ten-year, 30-year, that part of the market we think it's going to be limited by low rates elsewhere and also by whatever global

shortage you put it together, you get from our perspective at the end of the year, let's say, two-year treasury yield probably ranging from low threes to maybe 350, 360, something like that and ten-year treasury i would say 2 .50, 2.60 up to 3. the difference between -- it is driven by the fed hike and pretty impressive. >> all right michael, great to see you. thank you. >> thank you meantime stocks trading off the surge in inflation but well off session highs with the s&p and nasdaq trying to snap a two-day losing streak. we have chris, chief equity strategist at mai capital management with us first, just an overall markets question so let's say we saw the peak in inflation. what does that mean if -- for

the markets if inflation remains high anyway? >> well, it's good to be with you again. i'd say the quote, unquote, peak of inflation is about a consensus view as you can have right now. that's not a tough call. oil was so high in march and it's clearly going to and has been coming down but i think the more important point and mike touched on this is what the long end does versus the short end. we're more productive than mike. i think that we don't get an inversion, at least not by year-end, and that we look at the three-month ten-year, that's still very steeply sloped, and even if we get 200, 250 on fed funds by october, we're actually happy to see the long end approaching 3. because again, that means we can avoid the inversion. i would say all eyes are on the long end of the curve. >> when you say 200 and 250, are you including the impact of balance sheet runoff >> i'm not i think that's good, but if you

think about it, the fact that we had the qe, that made fed funds lower than the printed number now. so now we're about even. the -- i think that the qt, the tightening, balance sheet runoff will actually force the long end higher again, look, nobody loves higher interest rates but boy, we sure hate an inverted curve i think qt can help solve the inverted curve problem as well so we're somewhat constructive on the second half of the year >> i want to get to your stock picks. one stands out that's home depot. we're entering spring planting season which should be a great thing for home depot and lowes at the same time there's high prices for the raw materials that do-it-yourselfers like like lumber and that will impact that part of the business. that's a big part for a home depot. how do you sort of view this whole mix? >> well, so far our channel checks are saying the consumer is paying up business is solid.

i'm more concerned about supply constraints where home depot can't get their hands on everything from tulips for the spring to lumber for the renovations. that's what we're concerned about, but all our channel checks say higher mortgage rates so far are not having an effect on overall demand, and we're pleased about that and at the same time, these stocks are down. so you can buy a home depot at maybe a 15 % discount to where it usually trades in market that's more expensive than the typical s&p. >> is there a tulip shortage, by the way? >> you talk about the next tulip mania. i don't want to start one on tv, but seriously, business is good at home depot, dominos, amazon these stocks are all trading marketedly below their average pe, and they ought not be. >> does dominos have the edge because of investing in

technology and getting the margins as big as they can through technological innovation >> you're right. they're almost like the starbucks of pizza they have these economies of scale. and it's not just the technology it's -- things as prosaic as cheese prices and flower prices are big issue for a pizza maker and they have economies to scale and look, it's going to hurt everybody, but in a commodity business like this, if you're the big one and you can do efficiencies to scale, you'll come out a winner. we think dominos is like that. >> all right chris, thank you for your time >> thank you coming up shares of paramount are riding a five-year losing streak but leading the market at 20% and the top streaming today. box office strategy and what it takes to stand out in the streaming wort plus the first week of earnings season. we're bringing the action, the story and the trade on the exchange is back right after this

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welcome back paramount is fresh off the fourth number one movie at the box office this year and wall street is starting to take notice the stock is outperforming the media rivals including the newly

formed warner brothers discovery. comcast and disney, can it keep the momentum going julia is with the ceo of paramount pictures and nickelodeon. take it away >> thank you so much and yes, brian, you are not only ceo of paramount pictures and nickelodeon but also chief content officer for film as well as the family and kids division of paramount plus. you have your hand both in the t theatric and movie said. let's start with the film business sonic the hedgehog two how does this weekend's performance change your strategy going forward? >> yeah. it was a great weekend for us with sonic 2 it's our biggest opening weekend since 2014 72 million worth thrilled with that result. and really, it's because first of all, our film makers delivered a great product.

and our marketing and distribution teams did an amazing job marketing it there's an amazing synergy between myself and my colleagues at the company george attacks and crystal, we are working together to unleash the reach of the entire company on our films and our other projects and that is definitely paying dividends for us >> but in terms of the box officer, what's your strategy in terms of the amount of time you're going to be leaving the films in theaters. you haven't announced how long sonic the hedgehog 2 is going to be in theaters before you release it on streaming. what's the strategy in terms of trying to maximize both the box office and the streaming without having them cannibalize themselves >> they will all end up on streaming eventually since we've been in this pandemic and are still trying to figure out when is it really

over, we've looked at each film wholistically. so back last summer starting with fireplace, there was a window to release a movie theatrically where covid calmed down we had a nice run on that, that movie went to streaming on day 46 and was really successful the following month the pandemic wasn't so good we released the paw patrol movie. we went day and day with that movie because family wanted choice, whether they would see it at home or in the theaters. it worked out for us both ways that movie was successful at the box office, and it was our most successful movie in streaming. fast forward to this year, we made a decision to hold our release dates for scream, jackass and lost city. each one of the films opened number one, so far scream and jackass, both films are performing incredibly well on

streaming. >> certainly having the flexibility with how long you leave films in theaters seems like an advantage, but there's another factor that is inflation. how do you see that impacting not only your own costs when you're producing the films but also what's going to happen with audiences? are they going to stay home and stream on netflix and paramount plus rather than buying movie tickets? >> it's certainly had an impact on the cost of making films. like we were hearing the cost of materials is higher, covid costs are higher it has an impact on our production costs, but movies are still such an incredible value discussing this the other day with my colleagues compare to sports or any theater or any other entertainment value, movies is still a great value. and what i know is people want to leave the house and they love that communal experience of going to a theater and laughing together and crying together and when a movie is really

great, and you're sitting there and you don't want to move and you don't want to look at your phone, there's nothing like it and sonic played that way for families this weekend. it was a joy to sit in the theater and watch parents and kids have that experience together and laugh >> so when it comes to the streaming business, though, you know, you're overseeing film and the family content for paramount plus there's this increasing pressure to invest to compete with the likes of not just netflix and disney plus, but also with this new combination of discovery and warner brothers which just started trading together yesterday. how do you think about investing more in content? do you need to spend more? do you need to think about bringing films to the streaming service faster >> we're focussed on the franchise strategy if you look at the impact of the theatrical releases on streaming, they perform amazing. so we're taking advantage of the

big theatrical marketing campaign and seeing it have an impact on paramount plus where before we only used to look at the value of a theatrical film in the traditional water fall now we're able to go here's the traditional water fall and theatrical home video, pay tv, free tv. now we add on our own service to that, the impact these films are having on our service has been norm so it's a big benefit when we look at the decision whether to green light a movie or not to have this additional scream of revenue. >> when you talk about thinking about the different revenue streams, i can't help but think about your background, founding awesomeness tv the strength of your perspective as someone in the digital media space for a long time. looking now at web three, are there additional opportunities for your business, whether it's in nft or the metaverse? >> i was looking at our numbers. we launched the knicks first on

roblox three weeks ago and the numbers have been incredible and it is basically taking our reach with nick total reach up double digits in three weeks including in my own house where my seven-year-old daughter is consuming it like crazy. nft, we had the first launches last week of star trek and did amazingly well all of these are incredible opportunities, not only for revenue, but really reach and reach is so important when you have a franchise strategy and brands >> marketing, it's all about the marketing. we've covered a lot of ground from the box office to streaming to the metaverse thank you so much for talking to us today on the heels of those sonic the hedgehog 2 numbers >> thank you, julia. still ahead, supply chain challenges, price increases and making moves on the ev front we'll hear from toyota and hyundai. plus the 30-year fixed mortgage rate holding above 5%.

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welcome back take a check on the markets in the green, but off the session highs. the nasdaq up by 103 points. we were as high as 2%. right now up .8% the dow is up 127. just about .4% energy leading the way followed by consumer discretionary, and look at the mega cap names tesla, outperforming this group. still down about 9% over the past week. we are up 2.4% on tesla. car max down 8%. the biggest laggard after

reporting an earnings miss and kohl's seeing a nice jump on the announcement that there's a $9 billion offer lululemon in the green expanding the traded and resale program called like new to all its stores the extension comes after a two-state pilot program apparently people like to wear used leggings. now let's get to tyler mathisen for an update. >> i will pass on that one thank you. let's tell you what's happening at this hour in ukraine. the mayor of the town of bucha says searchers have found 403 bodies so far of people they believe were killed by russian invaders french forensic ib vest gators joined the effort to verify the death toll ukrainian officials hope it will help refute russian claims that the troops have committed no war crimes

crimes in oklahoma they signed a bill into law that criminalizes almost all abortions performing the abortion will be a felony the law is set to go into effect in august but will face legal challenges on the news tonight with shep smith, what the oklahoma law means for other efforts to ban abortions and the battle at the supreme court. that's tonight at 7:00 a federal agency predicts gas prices will fall significantly in the second and third quarters of the year the eia expects regular gas will average 384 a gallon nationwide. that's an eight-year high after you adjust for inflation melissa, back to you >> tyler, thank you snchlgt ahead, jpmorgan, delta, and bed bath and beyond set to report results on the options market. we have the action, the story and the trade. earnings exchange is next. alright, so...cordless headphones, you can watch movies through your phone? and y'all got electric cars? yeah.

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welcome back to "the exchange". we're back with earnings exchange we're looking at three names that could shed light on the state of the economy first up, jpmorgan, it is the worst performing big bank this year down 16%

rising rates generally expected to be a positive for the financials but a slowdown in investment banking activity and exposure to russia could prove to the head winds. leslie has the story, todd as the trade, the founder of new age wealth investors >> this is the first of the big u.s. universal banks to report lots of things to dig apart here kbw noted j.b. morgan's earnings release is the most anticipated of the group given uncertainty around thick trading results in general and commodities and counterparty risks specifically remember jpmorgan was the largest counterparty in that chinese nickel producer short squeeze that took place last month. dimon didn't detail where the losses would stem from earnings among the banks in

general, the impact on areas like underwriting and trading and that's something jpmorgan could be a bellwether for when you see the results tomorrow as you mentioned, it's definitely faced some pressure in recent weeks in particular over concerns about that fit group, the russia exposure, and basically any unknowns that could come from q-1 results. >> todd, the setup seems good for jpmorgan it's down so much going into earnings >> yeah. we hold it we've reduced our holdings, and i'm looking to add back on i haven't given up on it as leslie said, the trading will be certainly important across the three asset classes. then you look at equity trading. that's key and also look at the investment banking side it was tech valuations have come in the ipo business will probably come under pressure as well and obviously commodity exposed with russia j.p. has a great history of

beating earnings i think 17 of the last 20 quarters were a beat they're fairly priced. as i said, i hold it in our portfolio. we started about 2.75 in we cut it down to 1% if we could hold 132, 130, i would be looking to add, and actually, despite what you said, j.p. has fallen out of favor, but in the last couple weeks we're seeing outperformance in s&p compared to the -- s&p com j.p compared to peers. they have to thread the needle on this report there's a lot of factors at work >> next up delta airlines. rebound in travel demand not helping. shares down 21% in the last year as rising jet fuel costs and labor shortages cause problems for the industry at large. leslie has the story on delta. what are you looking for >> well, we are expecting another loss

and that's not much of a surprise delta had said this earlier in the quarter. every airline started this year with omicron sidelining thousands of employees, causing flight delays and things like that getting later into the first quarter, there was a huge spike in jet fuel. that's the airlines' biggest cost after labor we're expecting another loss on revenue. it's supposed to jump almost double, more than double from last year. so the demand is there and the costs are rising alongside it. >> todd, transports as a group have been terrible of late i think they're down 13% since the end of march so delta in particular, do you like this one? >> i don't i don't own any of the airlines. i don't like the fundamentals behind them. j.b. morgan ironically came out with positive comments saying they might be able to expand the margins. you look the performance of airlines and delta, it has not offered any outperformance relative to the s&p since 2016 airlines are still not back in

terms of filling seats to the prepandemic levels i think there's better ways to play the reopening government regulation is still a drag and making employees and travelers wear the masks and trying to lift it. you look at what jet blue said last week they cut 20% of the flights. they're trying to pay flight attendants to show up. alaska is trying to pay to train new pilots the question is what impact will crude oil have delta did invest in the own refinery about ten years ago it was hard for them to make any money. they tried to hedge in futures, and they reportedly lost about 4 billion. i think the big thing will be the fuel charge, fuel costs in the earnings report. i don't -- i won't touch it. >> leslie, airlines have always been able to have a fuel surcharge and people in general have been willing to pay that. i'm wondering if the airlines' problem is the labor issue, not

being able to get the airplanes staffed up if they're cutting capacity they're being cob strained in how much they can make because they can't staff up the planes >> right think two years ago when we were at the traffic low during the pandemic of travel. now we're 87,000, now over 2 million. they're trying to staff up as much as possible with bailout prevented the airlines from laying anybody off they urged tens of thousands of workers to take buyouts. it's kind of like throwing out your sweaters in july and not having anything to wear in the winter so airlines are quickly trying to staff up as fast as they can, especially the pilot shortage we're seeing regionals particularly having to scale back capacity and that's affecting the majors in that way. but people are ready to travel we have data from adobe that fares last month were up 20% that inflation is there. and so far travelers are willing to pay it and delta's commentary

last week, at the conference say said they are able to pass a lot of that along to customers in the form of higher fares or the fuel surge is faster international travel on surn routes we're seeing the fares coming up and tickets are getting gobbled up alongside of it >> all right leslie, thank you. a quick programming note here. delta ceo will join "squawk box" in an exclusive interview tomorrow at 7:00 a.m. eastern time following the earnings release. finally we get to bed bath and beyond the retailer down 36% in the past year. bank of america today calling the company one of its, quote, top underperform ideas for 202 with options implying an 18% move and a 22% short interest. things could get interesting tomorrow morning that's a move of plus or minus 18 % we have the story on bbby. >> before we sort of look at the stock chart action which has been messy for a number of reasons, let's talk about the

fund funda fundamentals bed bath and beyond, the ceo came from target people were jazzed up about the idea of him introducing private label brands to increase margins and sort of reinvigorate interest at this company the private brands are there the sales are not so much yet. the company is forecasting those comp sales to fall in the high single digits here, and this is in a sub sector of home furnishings doing pretty well. we were at home and refurnished and redecorated. that continues despite inflation in this category if you look at the stock chart, you see the bump last month. that's because ryan cohen got involved of course, he had a very big involvement or has a big involvement with came stop is the current chairman. he has retail interest bed bath and beyond was one of the reddit plays earlier on when all of that frenzy was taking shape. some of what we've seen in the stock price move is because of the involvement in ryan cohen. and bed bath and beyond

responded quickly, adding three board directors after cohen's involvement in a very short period of time one thing that cohen wants is bed bath and beyond to look at spinning out bye bye baby. he thinks it's much more valuable than some of the analysts on the street do. i'm wondering if bed bath and beyond doesn't have to give us more details about that silo of a business and what it might be worth tomorrow when we hear more in depth earnings. but this one has been kind of a messy one. the turn around hasn't taken hold >> is there a fundamental story for you, a compelling one, enough for you to invest in it >> so no and no. courtney did a really good thorough report on that. i wouldn't touch this with our investor money this is a meme stock i'll make a comparison on that in a second. i think they're looking for three cents a share. that's a 90% drop from the same quarter last year. they're battling online retailers and trying to do their

own digital strategy they're facing supply chain bottle necks, potentially strained customer. they are still pulling back from the cohen pop when he bought nine and change percent of the company. there might be breakout support around 17 if you want to trade this is yolo, meme, fun money. this is not investment as far as i'm concerned. as kourtney said, they're trying to spin off the buy buy baby cohen thinks the market capitalization is worth more if they spin it off their loop ventures said no. strongly disagree with that. they face the same issues. higher staffing, input costs, it's going to pressure margin. the stock isn't trading at fundamentals it's a meme stock. i would not put this in client portfolios i might trade it you know me from when i was a younger, crazy trader, be you want a meme stock, look at gme it looks a little bit better if you want to trade it up through 190 and technical resistance

unless you're trading this long term -- >> hold on here. i like how you break into earnings exchange and sneak in gme. you're saying it's a better investment than bbby right now >> no. trade. >> trade better trade >> no. trade. a definite trade yeah if you want to get your technical crayons, anybody at home, put up a chart of gme, draw a trendline across the top. it bumped up again i wish this meme stock thing would go away so us venn or thes can stay focussed on what matters, but if you must trade, do it with small options up through 190. >> we see the fine print on that one. >> thank you both. still ahead, the upcoming new york auto show is promising to be electric as a major auto makers make big moves into evs we'll catch up with a few executives ahead of the big show next during april we're featuring some of our cnbc contributors. here's josh brown.

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welcome back the new york international auto show kicks off this friday and the spotlight is on electric vehicles and inflation

cnbc's phil is in new york city with that story. hi, phil >> there's going to be a lot of evs on display at the new york auto show. for executives here, the big conversation here is inflation particularly what we're seeing with new vehicle prices. look, the average transaction price according to kelley blue book in march was almost 46% up year over year. it raises the question will it go higher? here's what a couple of executives had to tell us today. >> unfortunately, i don't believe prices have yet peaked raw materials steel, aluminum, cobalt, lithium, everything is continuing to escalate and manufacturing vehicles is a low margin environment so unfortunately, the way i see it is manufacturers are going to have no choice but to pass the costs on >> as long as we see more demand than supply, i think we're going to continue to see higher prices >> take a look at shares of

toyota and hyundai both of the executives we talked with said look, we don't think the chip shortage is going to end any time soon. expect it to exthe end into 2023 and so as you look at all the auto makers and some of the big three, the shares in the last year, keep in mind that inflation is really going to be the pain point they're feeling over the remainder of this year. yes, demand is there yes, they can pass this along to the consumer, but the question becomes at what point does the consumer say enough? nobody is expecting it in the next couple quarters maybe by early '23 if things don't change >> phil, thanks. coming up the 30 -year mortgage rate is now at 5.25%. ouwh history has to tell us abt ere the housing market could be heading, next what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are?

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and ask how to get up to a $650 prepaid card with a qualifying bundle. take a check on the markets now because we're sitting at our close to session lows. the dow is almost flat up 23 points s&p 500. this is one point off the session lows 4417 is our level. and the nasdaq giving up all but

a third of a percent of an earlier 2% gain here we're up 45 points now meantime, the 30-year mortgage rate above 5% and stands to climb higher as the fed is poised to hike again next month. what is next for the housing market joining us now is andy walden from black knight. great to have you. obviously, the more of your monthly paycheck that goes into a mortgage payment, the less you have for the house or the down payment. how does this shake out in terms of affordability >> if we look at what's happened this year just driven by the home price growth plus the rise we've seen in rates, you're looking at payments going up by about $400 per month for folks just buying the average home that's a 30% increase over the first three months of this year. you're taking about over a $60 per month increase, which is about a 60% increase in mortgage

payments significant impacts we're seeing at this point. >> i wonder if it's not necessarily the actual amount, but the shock of it. the fact that it has gone up so quickly. you could have been in the market for a house, a process that takes months, then you do your mortgage calculator again and you find out you can't afford as much house how does that sort of psych lo psychologically impact the home buyer? >> we have 800,000 fewer active homes out there. about a 70% deficit in inventory. if you look at it from a home buyer perspective, we're seeing the strongest interest rate increases we've seen in 27 years and now you're looking at low levels of inventory. they're being hit from all angles it's not only a financial impact, but a psychological impact >> do you think this slows down mortgage originations? get to the point where people

stop looking for that house? >> absolutely. if you look at it just in terms of overall originations and refinances are a big component of that. 90% of mortgage holders have an interest rate below where the going rate is today. so absolutely an impact from the refinance perspective. cashouts have been holds out strong, but cashouts are starting to get hit now that interest rates are increasing. i think you're going to see the purchase lending activity, the home sale activity is going to be hit, but the supply side as w well if you look at the number of listings from the supply component there alone, you now have a third of mortgage properties that have a locked in interest rate 2% below what's being offered out there in the market. so you're going to see a disincentive for those folks to go list their homes. so again, being hit from all angles >> i want to ask you about whether or not we should be worried about the cohort of mortgage buyer who used an

a.r.m. and that rate might float. did most of those five, ten years ago, did people refinance into a fix should we be faced with these people being faced with huge mortgage payments? >> they're a such, much, much smaller component of the market than they were in 2009 not nearly as much now you're seeing a little bit of increased activity now that the spreads are wider and they're more attractive, but not overly concerned about a.r.m. resets like last time >> thanks. coming up, pc sales slowing in 2022 after the industry's best year in decades what it means for the already beaten down chipmakers and it had oracle of omaha's big bet on the hybrid work boom another check on the markets the dow is now negative. so we've given up our gains for the day. we had been up by 361 points now down 16. nasdaq still eking out a gain there, but we are losing as we

enter on the final hour of trade. up 25 points the exchange will be right back.

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welcome back pc sales boomed during the pandemic, but given supply snarls and the gradual return to office, they're forecasted to slow this year frank holland has more while kristina partsinevelos takes a look at the decline in chip stocks >> shares of hp jumped 10% since warren buffett took a huge stake in the company berkshire hathaway becoming a largest shareholder in hpq that has upgraded its guidance. 75% of revenue and a deal to acquire a headset maker. however, new data from gardner shows a 7% decline in q1 the u.s. saw a 17% decline hpq actually losing market

share. dell and apple both gaining share. lenovo remains the global market leader, but shares still in the red along with dell. >> select chipmakers could be hit while others can weather the storm. >> i want to start with three main reasons for the slowdown and shortage in components you've got supply chain issues and slowdown in pc demand. so firms like intel have exposure to the pc market because they're the world's lar largest producer of personal computers. amd was downgraded to neutral. the stock is down almost 5% and we're only tuesday there are some bright spots. qualcomm, marvell have little exposure up today, but down sharply on the year in the case of nvidia, bank of america analysts says they're appreciating others like gaming. so despite a softening backdrop,

broad-based demand from data centers and autos remain robust and that's what's expected to keep chip demand strong. >> thank you and tonight on fast, we are taking a look at the rip higher today in crude could we see oil surge again paul sankey will join us "power lunch" starts right now thank you very much. good to see you. welcome, everybody, to "power lunch. here's what's ahead for a big tuesday. the big inflation reading out this morning consumer prices up 8.5% from last year. that's the highest in more than 40 years, but roughly in line with the expectation i suppose that's supposed to comfort me somehow has inflation peaked and can the economy and stock market handle this level of rising