week >> very interesting to see what happens to big banks out this week thanks so much >> courtney, great to be with you. >> thanks for having me here >> we'll see you again soon. thank you very much. stocks giving up their gains right now. sara is along to tell you about it "closing bell" starts right now. >> tyler, thank you. we gave up the whole rally and then some and we're trading near session lows the most important hour of trading starts now welcome, everyone, to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen here's where we stand right now. the nasdaq growth is the leader today, up 273 points it's given that all back s&p 500 down .25%. and the dow is down about .1%. energy is leading the way today in terms of sectors. you have strength in utilities, consumer discretionary, materials, financials getting hit hard as we see interest rates go the other way yields lower today that hurts ahead of earnings

tomorrow communication services also weaker what i'm watching into the close, oil prices getting a big lift today, up more than 6%, and wti and brent are both now back above $100 a barrel. why? china relaxing some of the restrictions in shanghai, a sign more demand could be coming, and opec warning it would be impossible to replace all of the oil from russia. coming up on the show, national economic council director brian deese will join us with his first comments on today's four-decade-high inflation print and how the administration plans to battle those higher prices. >> let's get straight to the market and this big intraday turn lower the s&p 500 giving up a 1.3% gain the nasdaq erasing a pop of more than 2%. joining us now, dan niles. dan, welcome i guess you're not too surprised to see the market mood shift you have been pretty bearish what is your take on the inflation report >> i mean, there's no way to look at it other than it's negative i mean, cpi is up 8.5%

core is up 6.5%. you're at 40-year highs, and the fed has raised rates once. so the fed is incredibly far behind it's the farthest the federal reserve has been behind since the 1970s. so we're going to see multiple 50-basis point rate hikes. you're going to see the balance sheet work down, and i think the key is when you're thinking about this market, you want to stay big picture if it was don't fight the fed on the way up, which was they put in so much stimulus that the stock market rallied over the two years we had a global pandemic, then the same applies on the way down, which is don't fight the fed. the second part of it is, you don't want to fight the fundamentals which is earning estimates are going down for the first time since seven quarters ago during the depths of the pandemic because you have things like inflation and energy costs and wage increases and the biggest thing, which is

demand slowing down. so those are the two big things. don't fight the fed, and don't fight the fundamentals >> there is another way of looking at it today, though, when it comes to the inflation report, which is how the market saw it earlier, which is maybe peaking. we saw core cpi, for instance, only rise .3% in march i say only because that is a deceleration from what we have seen in prior month. and there is a thinking that if inflation comes down sooner rather than later, the fed won't have to be as aggressive and those beaten down tech stocks might not look so bad. >> yeah. i think that's a very optimistic way to view things because yes, i mean, mathematically, the compares get a lot tougher for inflation as you move out over the next few months the problem is two-thirds of all costs for corporations are related to wages and you have 3 million more job openings than you have people

unemployed the fed can't fix that with rate hikes unless they magically make 5 million people show up on this planet to work in the united states so that's not going to fix anything and supply chain and energy costs are only 20% of corporations' expenses because we're services based economy this isn't like 200 years ago. so those things are going to continue, and then you're going to have food inflation which is going to be really high towards the end of the year because the ukrainians are involved in something else rather than planting which means they won't be able to harvest so it's going to be pretty bad, and it's going to obviously inflation should come down from 8.5%, but it's still going to be way higher than people think by the end of the year. i think it's still going to be above 4% by the end of the year. >> fair, so what is your strategy then? is it to raise cash during rallies? i know cash was one of your big calls of the year, which has been a good one. is that still the strategy here? >> yeah.

for us, i mean y do this every day. so the strategy is pretty simple we tweet about it. which is when the market really sells off and gets super oversold, then we cover and try to get long. when you get a rally that gets back 70% plus of the prior leg lower, we start to reshort it. and we'll change that if we think, you know, inflation comes in way lower than what we're thinking or demand hangs in a lot better, but right now, that's not the case, and valuations are still high. so i think if you're a retail viewer, you can't watch a portfolio every day, cash is still the best otherwise, that's kind of the strategy that we're employing. >> what about energy because you liked energy coming into this year obviously, that's bib the right bet. it's still going up. but i think you have gotten out of that etf, the energy etf. is that right? >> correct we tweeted about this a few weeks ago when russia first invaded ukraine, and people were talking about $200 oil

and there's rar great saying in the energy market. the cure for high prices is high prices, because high prices kill demand and so we got out of our position we still are very bullish on energy long term, because those things haven't changed in fact, they have gotten even more constructive for oil prices which is supply is extra spare capacity is really low at opec plus, environmental concerns is keeping additional supply under control. and i think by the end of this year, we're all going to be out, all going to be traveling, consuming services and not goods. and that's really good for energy demand. so from a longer term perspective, we're very constructive on oil. we look to get back long it in the low $90s again which is where it was prior to russia invading ukraine, andee do think the ukrainian situation will get resolved in q2, hopefully that's not wishful thinking but may 9th is when russia celebrates their victory over the nazis in world war ii. that might be an interesting date to watch because initially,

just like you saw today, the reaction was oh, the market goes up, it's all wonderful, and then cooler heads take control and sell it down the day russia was in ukraine, all commodity prices are going to drop, and that's when we're going to be buying hand over fist because the structural things haven't changed >> that's a tough one to predict. stay with us if you would. we're going to get into specific names you like and don't like right now. take a quick break on the other side, we're going to drill down particularly on these tech sector with dan niles. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. we'll be right back.

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. welcome back we are near session lows here. the nasdaq, the underperformer, down .7% after being up 2% earlier in the session let's bring back in dan niles again. weakness today in microsoft, nvidia, apple, facebook, after it looked like they were going to have a good day earlier in the session. do you continue to avoid the nasdaq, which is down about 18% or so off the highs on the fears of rising rates and your call to not fight the fed? >> absolutely. and i think there's sort of a nuance to that, which is you want to particularly avoid companies that sell goods. and you want to be more focused on companies that sell services. because during the pandemic, we all bought a peloton bike, or buying things off of amazon, off our new iphone while putting a zoom call in through our ipad. et cetera. you know, as the economies open

up and we learn to live with covid, you're going to be going to restaurants, traveling, staying at your favorite hotel eating in your favorite restaurant, going to a sporting event, and that's something we're all starting to do again i think within the nasdaq, you want to avoid pc and smartphone makers in particular and be very careful because i think you're going to see revenues going negative year over year before the year is out. and then but you can look at things like online travel or dating or things like that that are more leisure focused i think that's where demand will pick up as you go through the rest of this year. so that's kind of how we have our portfolio. >> you have also liked some of the old school tech names like cisco, which hasn't performed particularly well. it's down 19% or so this year. and underperforming other big caps like apple. >> you have to remember, when we put cisco on, that was one of our top five picks entering the year we got involved with cisco fairly recently as we got more convinced you're going to have a

spending cycle in 5g because all of the phones, more than half of the phones sold this year will be running on a 5g network, spending in hyperscale because we're on on the internet so those companies, facebook, google, amazon will spend more on that. as we go back to work, corporations which haven't had to spend in a couple years because nobody is at the office, they're going to be spending again. remember, our overall big picture is s&p down 20% for the year, hard for any stock to be up if it outperforms and our shorts do better, which is what's been going on, then we can make money that's the strategy which is why i don't want people to be confused we wrote a lot of isoccupy on danniles.com read that for more details because this is complicated stuff. >> down 20% for the year would be another 12% decline from here for the s&p. you're also known, dan, you had good calls in the past on semi-conductors in particular.

that's been a group that's also been tossed out lately one of the best performing groups of last year. has anything really fundamentally changed though with the semis in terms of the secular growth cycles they're in, the shortages that we're still seeing that would warrant this kind of selling >> absolutely. because if you think about it, what did people do over the last couple years well, we upgraded our smartphones. we upgraded our pcs. those are the two biggest end markets for semi-conductors. so you're going to see all of those upgrades means you don't have to upgrade again. you'regoing to see demand fall off. remember, semis supply into goods. so combine that with the fact that inventory levels are up a ton. dell's inventories are up 73% year over year odm is up 49% year over year distribution up 31%. while you hear that supposedly there's a lot of shortages, companies have built a lot of inventory. you have demand rolling over that is the worst possible

environment for semi-conductors. especially when people still are clinging on to the belief that everything is going to be fine but the inventories tell you a very different story as to what's going on. so that was actually one of the first sectors we shorted this morning off the rally which was great. >> you're shorting it now even though the sector is down so much this year >> yeah, but think about how much the sector is up over the last three years so that's what you want to be looking at and think about how much demand was overinflated because you had the fed expand their balance sheet by 4.8 trillion over the last two years. you have the federal government hand out $5.5 trillion of free money. that's $10 trillion against th u.s. economy that's only $20 trillion in size you handed out 50% of gdp. so people spent money on a lot of stuff because you couldn't go and do services. you couldn't go to a hotel, you couldn't travel. that's going to reverse this year and semis are at the

epicenter of that. you have seen year end pricing which is like the oil for the semi-conductor industry, you have seen prices start to roll over from mid-march. you're already seeing signs that supply and demand are starting to cross in a negative direction, which is why you want to be extremely careful in that space. >> i guess what could go wrong with this whole world view, dan, is that the fed could succeed at executing a soft landing that they have telegraphed what they're going to do with rates, so there's no big rate shock here, and that they can successfully fight inflation that way, and the economy is strong enough if you look at some of these numbers with jobs and consumer balance sheets to absorb it. >> the fed can't engineer it because how is the fed going to create more people it can't so the fed is raising rates, which is the only thing it can do, but remember where inflation is coming from inflation is coming from 3 million more job openings than we have people unemployed. they can't fix that with rate

hikes. supply chain issues, the fed can't fix that war in russia between them and ukraine, the fed can't fix that. >> housing t can fix housing, some of the demand issues there that have driven prices up >> remember, when you fix that, it's by killing demand, which means estimates go lower and valuations are still high. so that all points to stock prices having to go lower. it's the exact opposite scenario of last year where if demand was bad, the fed could stimulate more, driving stocks up. if things got etter, stocks went up because things got better this is the exact opposite where you're in a box that you can't get out of because of high inflation. if you didn't have high inflation, not a problem keep stimulating forever and you'll be good modern monetary theory at its best, but that's not the situation you're in. >> that's not the situation we're in dan niles, thank you for joining me good to get your picks >> let's give you a check of where we are the dow losses are picking up steam here

we're down .5% dow 160 or so. s&p 500 down a little more than .5%. it might look mild, but we were surging this morning the s&p was as high as 60 points up you have energy and utilities in the green, everybody else is lower, and the nasdaq down about .6%. after the break, ubs out with a big call, upgrading the entire tech sector, say it's a quality play let's look at what that really counts for and later, don't misour interview with national economic council director brian deese his first reaction to today's inflation print. as we head to break, check out some of today's top searched tickers on cnbc.com. ten-year yield getting the most attention, as usual. and is moving a little lower today for a change prices up, yields lower. also on the list, tesla, higher by .2% at&t giving back a tiny bit of its big gains yesterday. nvidia and apple holding up just bia t amid this broader tech sell-off we'll be right back.

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ubs upgrading tech today saying the sector is supported by improving relative momentum, higher quality, and lower cost exposures. mike santoli taking a closer look at the group for the dashboard today, which looked like a good call this morning. >> it really did it responded at least in part to calls like this. it gets to a key debate in the markets which is talking about a later cycle backdrop and a lot of indicators of that, tech is part of the quality trade that should be performing relatively well, where you have good earnings reliability however, tech was up so much in the prior two years, the nasdaq 100 was the leader and now it's given up some of the valuation premium. this shows any quality screen, this is the quality index, but any one of these filters you run is going to get you loaded up with tech. that one in particular, 35% or 40% tech and internet. you see the lines really in the last year have moved right together along with the nasdaq 100. the other components of quality,

however, the overweights are health care and staples. and you see those have been net contributors it seems as if you have to make a choice, tech is not behaver the way other defensive groups are, and maybe it won't, but it is worth keeping in mind if we're going to get back at some valuation to the reliability trade where you have good profit margins and good balance sheets as being the leadership qualities, then that's going to take you to a lot of tech. >> doesn't it depend how you slice and dice tech, too you had pulled out faang plut microsoft, it would probably be performing a lot better than the triple qs. >> yes and no. nasdaq 100 basically is faang, apple, microsoft, plus the semis to some degree in the last two years, that all would be right up here so in other words, there was this massive 2020 to 2021 run higher massive outperformance it's been given back since then. >> they're not so defensive now. >> all right, mike, thank you. >> here's where we stand right now in the markets, continuing to lose team

s&p down .5% you have energy higher because crude oil is jumping more than 6% but most everything else is lower right now. the nasdaq down .4%. coming off lows a little bit, but we're still down utilities and consumer discretionary both green we'll be right back with the national economic council director brian deese on whether president biden's plan to allow more ethanol and gasoline will really help lower prices at the pump we'll be right back. (vo) some bonds last a lifetime. some bonds inspire confidence, and some you grow to rely on. these are the bonds worth investing in.

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the news today, inflation in the u.s. rising 8.5% in march year over year that's the highest pace in 40 years. meantime, national gasoline prices while down from the peak last month are still over $4 a gallon according to aaa. joining us now from the white house, national economic council director brian deese good to have you back on the show welcome. >> happy to be ere >> another scary inflation print this morning 8.5% from last year. how problematic is this for the economy? >> look, this report shows the impact of the war in ukraine we saw in very clear view the impact of the war and putin's choices on the cost of energy in particular 70% of that 1.2% monthly increase was a result of energy, and as you mentioned, that was

an increase directly in the price at the pump. the good news is that the president has taken decisive action and since the middle of march, we have seen oil prices and gas prices start to come down we also did see some moderation in march in what is referred to as core inflation taking out food and energy. but make no mistake, inflation is running uncomfortably high, and that's why the president is about to talk in iowa about actions he is taking and has made front and center that lowering costs, lowering the deficit has to be our focus. >> you kabtcan't really put it on the war and putin i get we havesign spikes in food and energy prices but we're seeing pricing every, particularly in housing and rents and shelter and places like apparel that have been rising for the last few months that's much broader than just what we have seen as a result of the war. >> well, the very large increase in march was driven by a very large increase in energy prices and gas prices

and that is a direct result of putin's invasion and russian oil coming off the market. again, 70% of that increase in march was driven exclusively by energy at the same time, the core inflation that includes a lot of the categories you just described, did moderate modestly from prior months. to be very clear, inflation is too high and we need to bring prices down that's absolutely the case, and that's why you see this administration doing everything it can to encourage congress to move in ways that could lower costs and make things more affordable for american families and provide additional moderating impact on inflation and also to work internationally to try to do things like bring down the cost of oil >> a lot of people do -- americans do, though, if we're playing the blame game, look at president biden. in fact, there's a new nbc news survey just out in march, biden gets more blame for inflation than any other factor. the pandemic, russia,

corporations americans say 38% of americans say it's biden only 6% say it's russia/ukraine. so clearly, there's a political issue here i guess the economic question is, where would these inflation numbers be if the administration did not add $2 trillion a year ago to this economy which was already looking very strong and starting to open up on the heels of covid >> well, a couple of points. first, there's been careful studies that have been done about the fiscal support last year and the predominance of the evidence is we generated very significant economic growth. we have very strong top line economic growth, and we have very strong labor market outcomes and that the principal driver of elevated inflation is what we're seeing around the world. record inflation in europe, we're seeing record inflation around the world because we're dealing with a unique global supply shock and the war is compounding that as well there's no question right now

that what's going on in energy prices is a function of russia and the war. that's economically speaking politically, this president is focused on actually delivering results. and that's what you see. he galvanized an international coalition over just the last couple weeks to release reserves collectively from the collective stocks around the world. we have seen that have some moderating impact on the price of oil today, he's going to announce additional actions on what's known as e-15 to allow additional ethanol into gas as well each step is him taking action to do what he can to try to moderate prices and encouraging congress to do the same. >> what does it all mean for the consumer what do you expect in terms of consumer spending, dealing with this energy shock, the food shock, rates going higher? what's going to happen to spending >> well, i would say if you look at the u.s. economy right now, one of the striking elements is the resilience of the american economy and the american consumer because of the strong growth

that i just mentioned, we have now navigated through multiple waves of unexpected shocks the delta wave, the omicron wave, the war in ukraine and we still continue to see the united states economy and the united states consumer operating more strongly than almost anywhere else in the world, so that puts us in a relative position of strength obviously, we're facing very uncertain and challenging times right now. but we are uniquely well positioned in terms of our overall growth, the position of the american consumer, and the american labor market to navigate through these times >> how much worse do you think these inflation numbers are going to get >> what i can tell you is already the price of oil has come down from its highs in march. and the price of gas at the pump is coming down it's come down about 20 cents from its high and it should come down more, and hopefully will come down quickly given where oil prices are so if we can sustain those lower prices over the course of april, then you would expect that to have a significant moderating

impact on the month by month numbers. but we're focused over the medium term on how it is we can bring prices down, encourage that normalization of the economy, while continuing the strong economic growth and the record labor market outcomes that's the outcome we're all hoping toward. it's certainly what we're focused on and i think our policies are oriented well to increase the chance to get to that outcome good but wages are not rising as fast as inflation, and in fact, if you look at them on an adjusted inflation basis, they're declining. that's part of why there's so much worry right now about the consumer and where this economy is going with wall street increasingly talking about recession, brian >> no question these are uncertain times and it's been a tough couple years overall for american households. i would make a couple points on wages. first of all, you have seen wage increases, the highest wage increases in the lower brackets of the income spectrum, so that means the people that have the hardest time making ends meet

and where higher prices have the biggest impact, they're actually seeing the strongest real wage gains. inflation adjusted wage gains. we're also seeing if you look at earnings or look at disposable income, american households are in a better position now than they were for many periods during the pandemic. but there is no question that these high prices are hitting people in their pocketbooks. they're creating uncertainty, which is why we need to do everything we can to bring those prices down. i would just underscore, we are taking every action that we responsibly can and we're encouraging congress to take actions the right now today could lower people's costs lower their energy costs, their prescription drug costs, and do it while lowering the deficit as well that would make a lot of sense it would help to reduce inflationary pressure. and our hope is to keep working with congress to try to get to that outcome >> national economic council director brian deese, thank you for joining me from the white house today. >> we're going to have much more on the outlook for inflation and

the economy and policy this time, monetary policy, which we speak exclusively to fed governor chris waller tomorrow, 3:00 p.m. eastern time, right here on "closing bell." >> coming,000 show today, much more on this market reversal as stocks sit near session lows, down almost .75% on the s&p 500. there's the dow losing 193 points getting worse. we'll ask deutsche bank's chief global strategist what he makes of the action and whether he sees an end to the volatility. you have energy and utilities ghel evy se lower we'll be right back. but i didn't wait. i could've delayed telling my doctor i was short of breath just reading a book... but i didn't wait. they told their doctors. and found out they had... atrial fibrillation. a condition which makes it about five times more likely to have a stroke. if you have one or more of these symptoms irregular heartbeat, heart racing, chest pain, shortness of breath, fatigue or lightheadedness, contact your doctor.

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mount everest, the tallest mountain on the face of the earth. keep dreaming. [music: “you can get it if you really want” by jimmy cliff] dow is down 126 points we're now in the "closing bell" market zone. senior markets commentator mike

sal santoli breaking down the trading. plus, deutsche bank on the market reversal. let's kick it off with the broader market stocks started the session pretty firmly in the green now selling off into the close the nasdaq was up more than 2%, mike, at session highs what a turnaround we saw is it just trying to figure out how to digest those inflation numbers plus a surging price of crude oil doesn't help >> all those things, sara, i also think it was a reflux sigh of relief it was a better than feared number on the cpi, on the core cpi, and unclear how far that was going to get you. the growth stocks have been suspect in terms of a source of leadership in any rally. whenever you have these bounces, i don't know how long that continues. i think there's a little bit of perhaps selling pressure ahead of the tax deadline coming this weekend because you had massive gains built up in 2021 i don't think all those things are necessarily the most of the

story today. it's much more about even though we got core inflation print, it doesn't really change the fed equation that much because they want to get back up to a neutral rate very quickly, no matter what the month to month data look like. >> one mover i wanted to spotlight, grocery chain albertson's, plunging despite what a strong quarter. beat on the top and bottom lines. better than expected same store sales. the full year profits may come in lower than the street's expectations saying it expects inflation to hit lower income consumers. listen to this from the call >> the one thing that we have put in our plan is that as snap funds reduce, which we suspect will go down as we go through the year, that that lower end consumer or the consumers that are more dependent on s.n.a.p., let me put it that way, will reduce some spend. >> so a warning there, mike, on s.n.a.p. consumers those that use food stamps but importantly, the ceo said they're not seeing that behavior

yet in terms of a slowdown in fact, they have been able to pass along higher prices and i don't know, maybe the street was looking for more updates on the strategic review this company announced back in february it's working with goldman sachs, maybe m&a plans, but you have 10% food at home inflation that's what the numbers showed today. that's a proxy for grocery, and so far, that's been pretty good for the grocers, the krogers and the albertson's because they can pass it on and people are staying closer to home because of it. >> it's been very good obviously, 7% plus comp sales shows you the acceptance of these prices i guess at some level there's a limit to that. people are going to worry about consumers generally being a little more squeezed if energy prices stay up here and things like that. there's other albertson specific factors here it's a reverse lbo, in private hands for a very long hand it trades at a discount somewhat to kroger which is its only real direct comp.

and it's a low flow and not in the s&p 500. there's a convertible preferred issue that might get converted into common share. so there's a lot of moving parts to this story that are separate from consumer behavior and whether people are trading down. >> and kroger is lower today, down 3%. as you said, it's been way outperformer albertsons. i wanted to mention some of the food stocks. we're seeing all time highs in places like coca-cola, hershey, hormel, which is a maker of spam, which is always a problem when you see the stock break out because it means there are serious concerns about the economic spending environment. >> traditional defense has been working. utilities in the face of higher yields, they have been working the food stocks, it really is all about a little bit of top line lift, which is unfamiliar to this group in recent years that's obviously that along with just being economically defensive seems like it's the full story right now arguably, they were an underowned group coming into this year, too, because you

couldn't find many people excited about owning them for any real fundamental catalyst. >> hormelup about .2%. highest level going back to the ipo in the '60s or '70s. fintech now, robinhood trying to hold on to gains after announcing it is listing four new crypto currencies on its trading platform, including shiba inu and solana they had allowed trading in seven cryptoes mizuho slashing the price target on coinbase on concerns they may be losing market share due to increasing competition kate rooney joins us now why has robinhood been so slow to add these new cryptocurrencies in the past why can't they just offer all of them >> yeah, regulation has been the big reason, and a lot of people have wondered that it's been four years since robinhood added another token or another cryptocurrency that's a long time in this industry things move pretty fast. like you aid, they only had seven before this. it does speak to the competition

here and the idea that there's a lot of other places at this point to go and trade crypto. i think they are feeling the competitive pressure back to that regulation point. nothing has really changed to give them more clarity or more certainty when it comes to regulation, but it seems robinhood has found a way to navigate this and get comfortable with the idea of adding new cryptocurrencies. i'm told they have an outside committee that decides whether something is really worthy of being listed, and they went through that process and decided that these four passed the test and they were going to add those. but a lot going on in competition here it speaks to what you mentioned with coinbase, too a lot of options out there at this point >> right i remember when coinbase -- one of them had to add dogecoin because they missed out in the quarterly numbers because we had seen such a surge. what is happening with market share among some of these major players that cater to retail traders and offer crypto >> it's interesting. you have coinbase, which really

is the big one biggest exchange in the u.s. a lot of the global players are looking to expand in the u.s binance, ftx, crypto.com, the ones we saw spend big on the super bowl ads the reason they're spending so much is to try to get market share here in the u.s. it is now a fee discussion as well you had jim chanos talking about the idea that coinbase is overearning. they're now competing on fees and that's one thing that robinhood focuses on at any interview. i talked to their chief product officer last week, but they really talk about the idea that they expect the same thing to happen in crypto that they saw kick off with the brokerage industry in terms of a fee war and a race to the bottom robinhood does offer free trading. coinbase doesn't but the other part of the coinbase picture, people think of that and they described themselves as sort of more of the future of crypto and what you think of as a bank they wouldn't call it a bank, but more of a financial services company than just a trading platform >> mlb superfan mike santoli has

noticed the crypto ads, right, mike, already? >> absolutely. ftx is a massive sponsorship with major league baseball it seems like a very aggressive market share grab. i think the question for coinbase and the rest of the industry is, you know, if you're taking in fewer eager new participants than we were, because bitcoin first got to today's price 14 months ago. it's just been a little less fun and easy than it had been a while back is it a little more of a zero sum game in picking up share of trading volume as opposed to a year ago >> coinbase down 2%. kate, thank you. >> let's hit boeing. one of the few dow stocks hanging on to gains after it reported it delivered nearly twice as many jets in march as it did in february the company did remove 141 jets from its backlog, due to sanctions on russia. let's bring in the equity analyst at cfra. what do you make of the delivery numbers? >> hi, sara. thank you for having me. i think it's a pretty pleasant

surprise for boeing. 37 single aisle jets came in in march or were delivered in march. and the sort of common conventional wisdom has been that boeing would need to kind of mid-2024 to get back to the mid-40s number on single aisle deliveries if you think about delivering 37 in march with a war in europe, china shutdowns, inflation shortages, all of these major pro problems, and they're already at 37 in a month like march 2022, i think they're going to be well ahead of what people expect. it's a really good number. >> because ofthe increased travel demand. is that the why? >> i think what airlines are starting to see is demand is come back way quicker than they expected so i think right now, domest ic leisure travel in the u.s., at

least, we're already above 2019 levels i think we're going to hear the airlines start talking about that in the earnings calls in the next couple weeks. they're needing planes now so they can start to get above 2019 levels into the summer that's creating a lot of demand for boeing and airbus. i think part of the crux of our strong buy is if you think about just the first year or two of a free cash flow timeline, it only represents about 10% of a company's value. and boeing shares are down about 60% from where they were before the max crashes. so that implies that 2025 to 2030 period is going to be still severely impaired earnings for boeing what we're seeing the way travel is recovering, we don't think that's going to be the case and it's undervalued >> hence the $274 price target colin, thank you >> stocks are selling off here

into the close s&p down a little less than half a percent. we're off the lows, but we are well off the highs we started the day firmly in the green. let's brynn in deutsche bank chief global strategist. so what do you do? i know you have been looking at past hiking cycles there's been 11 of them, and usually stocks can go up in that environment, but you guys were also the bank that predicted recession. so what's the strategy >> hi, sara. thanks for having me yes, we are predicting a recession, but i think, you know, the fine print is important. the recession is predicted for late 2023. so q4 of next year, and q1 of 2024, so if you look at that sort of relative to a typical fed hiking cycle, that's a little bit earlier than what i would say is the average, which is about two years out so i would argue that, you know,

it's still quite a ways off. and if you think about how equities did, you know, prior to a recession, they sort of peaked three, four, five months before. so i would argue, you know, we're definitely late cycle. the end of the cycle, which is the recession, you know, will definitely happen one day, but it's still a ways off. i would put where we are in the markets and the reversal basically as this is we are in the fourth month now of basically the pullback from the first trading day of the year. and so there's plenty of negativity there's plenty to sort of worry about. but i would argue that, you know, we will recover from this pullback this is a pullback, so we have sort of had these three drivers of this big pullback

first, tech and megy cap growths and earnings, we're approaching earnings season starting tomorrow then we had russia/ukraine, which sort of played out, i would say, you know, very much in line with the historical playbook, down three weeks, 7.5%, and recovered pretty quickly. and so now it's primarily basically about the cycle, about the fed, and i would argue it's too early to worry about the recession. >> what part of the market in particular, if you think we are going to come back on firmer footing here, you have a lot to pick from when it comes to the damage that's been done. >> absolutely. so i would argue today's concern, you know, is really the fed and the recession. i would say it's only worth basically since the recent peak worth about 5% despite how much we talk about the fed and inflation. and i would argue if our

baseline is right, that a recession is still some ways off, you're going to basically see a lift basically in the cyclical parts and i would argue especially the financials, we're still long energy. if you look at what the financials are pricing in, it's about 1.5% in some sense, they're sort of pricing in the three years down the road cutting interest rates that the bond market is pricing, which is a recession, basically. so i remain long energy, financials, cyclical exposure, yes. >> why not tech? if you're focused on things like being too negative and stocks overdoing it on the down side, there's no bigger damage done than technology where the nasdaq is down about 18% off the highs. >> absolutely. but what i would say is that, you know, the mega cap growth and tech stocks got bit up at the time of the pandemic way back in march, april, may of

2020 and they never gave up that pre premium. it was as high as 70% versus the rest of the s&p. today, it's a little less than 50%. i would say, you know, fair value we think is closer to sort of 40% so we have basically been neutral mega cap growth in tech. i would say it's worked. and i would argue, you know, to go long, you would want to see that valuation premium go a little bit the other side. mostly what mega cap growth in tech has done is gone sideways relative to the rest of the s&p. >> well, the financials have some work to prove it tomorrow down with jpmorgan reporting earnings, off about 10% from the highs. binky, thank you >> you heard the two-minute mark in the trading day mike, what do you see in the internals? >> they're weak, but again, not as bad as maybe the reversal lower in the indexes might imply. really a mixed picture

you have about 4 to 3 downside to upside volume much more even earlier again, a lot of divergences within this market it has been the mega caps weighing on things you mentioned financials look at utilities versus the banks index on a year to date basis. banks are going into the jpmorgan report in the morning at the lows for the year that's massive divergence. it shows you defensiveness and some counterintuitive moves given what's happening with yields you see about a 15%, 16% divergence volatility index above 24. still have this uptrend going. no panic but a little bit of apprehension building. >> you could put any defensive group over any cyclical group in the last few weeks and show that chart. thank you. >> as we head into the bell, energy the best performing sector and we have come off the lows the dow has recovered nicely, down only 55, but well off the highs of the session we were positive most of the day. took a spill later in the day. on concerns that maybe

improvement in the month to month core cpi isn't enough to move the needle, plus a spike in oil. financials are the hardest hit group, down 1% the nasdaq 100 down .3%. the dow down 82 points, and the s&p down .3% as well have a good evening. i will send it into "overtime" now with scott wapner. >> and welcome to "overtime. i'm scott wapner you just heard the bells we're just getting started in just a few minutes, we'll spike live to ark's cathie wood. so much to discuss with her today. we do begin with our talk of the tape, the risks and rewards that lie ahead for investors and there are both, at least according to our first guest today. he's with us exclusively scott minerd the global chief investment officer of guggenheim partners joins us now live. welcome to "overtime." great to have you on >> thanks, scott i appreciate you making time for