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tv   Power Lunch  CNBC  April 14, 2022 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT

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not as mump much of a problem for 2021 taxes but increase the withholdings because otherwise you could see a big surprise next april. >> great point the last thing anyone wants to hear better than the sush prize thank you. "power lunch" starts right now hello again. hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. frank will join me in a moment we have a big hour ahead on "power lunch." the dow up 117 after earlier dipping into negative territory. still the s&p down 19. nasdaq the underperformer down on higher rates today. travel stocks close out stronger optimism continues and a look at the cruise lines
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in our three-stock lunch, nike and ibm boosting the dow and wells fargo falling 5% after its earnings report. this morning retail sales up missed expectations but a firm tone to the report and retail stocks are doing well this year. hearing from an analyst worried about the earnings story of the day is twitter. elon musk wants to buy it and take it private. the stock below the level. only at $45 and it is negative on the session today losing losing steam as the afternoon goes on. >> the big story elon musk tweeting this morning. i made an offer. what he calls the best and final offer and releasing the communications with the company's chairman saying they need to go private to make the transformation he feels he needs. that puts him at odds with the
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management and the ceo we have every angle covered. julia boorstin has the late oes on the meeting phil lebeau looking at tesla leslie picker looking at whether he can pay for it and two guests on why twitter is an easy target we'll begin with julia big meeting today. do you have a sense of what will be said and the impact on the final decision >> twitter management is expected to be holding a meeting with employees at 2:00 p.m. pacific. twaes happening right now is elon musk is in a q&a session with chris andersen who is the curator of ted this is a big interview. very conveniently scheduled for today. so i think that twitter employees are probably listening carefully to what musk is saying and expecting it to be addressed
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in the meeting with the employees this amp musk was clear he cares about twitter being a platform for free speech, doesn't have the answers but important to protect the platform he wasn't sure how he was going to do it but take a listen to what he said. >> civilization risk is decreased if twitter -- the more we can increase the trust of twitter as a public platform and so i do think this will be somewhat painful i don't know that i cae it >> so he was saying he wasn't sure exactly how this was going to play out and important to protect it as a platform for free speech and talked about when he tweets it is a stream of consciousness and an edit button so people couldn't manipulate
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that a conversation going on for more than a half an hour and monitoring that. of course there are the reports that the twitter board is considering a poison pill to protect against musk and reports about the resistance of the board considering that they have a new ceo and they want to give him a shot before accepting this deal. >> such a saga thank you. leslie, what would a poisoned pill mean? what should we anticipate? >> poison pill is activist defense 101. you would -- it will be in a shareholder rights agreement but it's known as a poison pill. basically what it does is it dilutes from anyone else to take a great every stake in the company. it would prevent musk from being able to take more because the
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shareholder would be diluted if he did so. it's a way to defend the company. it is not surprising they consider this. it is clear based on reporting that they don't necessarily want to be acquired by musk that said, he says that he -- could he buy it? i think he can afford it there are solutions to be able to purchase but the mechanism with a poison pill in place makes it more difficult. >> phil, a question raised is how could this impact tesla. you are familiar with musk say he were able to take over the company of twitter how would he poim potentially run twit every and how would it impact tesla >> suggestion out there is that he would be distracted let's be clear
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elon musk while the krochlt he does have a fairly strong bench behind him executing the plan that he laid out for tesla if you look at the performance over the last couple of years they have been meeting the benchmarks the reason people say he will be distracted is because he comes up on whether the conference call and remember they have earnings next week or another event and make a promise, if you will, that we are going to have x number of robo taxis or self driving by a date and never met. people say is he taking the eye off the ball he said it himself he sometimes in a stream of consciousness puts out thoughts or targets, whether it is for tesla or another entity that he is involved with, and the timeline is often wrong. he won't hit it at a particular
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point where he says he will. but he is setting sort of if you will the goal for that entity and coming to tesla it is hard to argue that they have not hit the benchmarks he put out there to grow company and deliveries worldwide. >> amazing to haear him double down on the bad history between him and the s.e.c. >> that's part of it i think that's the part that we are fascinated in. especially investors people look and say if he's going to battle with the s.e.c. on this what are regulators who are involved with twitter going to say if he gets control of that company >> no doubt. chris andersen did ask musk if this chat if he had a plan b for twitter and musk paused and said yes. but didn't elaborate care to fill in the blanks >> no.
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i don't believe him. he might have a general sense. he didn't have a plan "a" until a few days ago he agreed to join the board and chris andersen mentioned that musk said he had no interest to buy twitter. plan "a" is aame ob ic. asked about strategy he hemmed a lot. i think plan "b" is down the road plan "a" is not settled. >> today, downgraded twitter basically saying that if musk pulls this off it detaches the company from the fundamentals. why do you say that? >> i think i'm talking about the current price action is detracted from the fundamentals. everyone is focusing on elon
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about the musk and near term there's confusion for employees internally especially because they're an ad focused business and a tweet that elon had suggested to get out of the advertising business altogether. probably not great for the employee base to worry about the job. if you're at twitter i think the fundamentals are pretty stable. user bass is stable. the people going to twitter go there for a specific use case. we had a hold rating they set aggressive growth targets especially on the user side they plan to meet by the end of next year talking to advertisers i think they're confused by the product road map perhaps too much focus on a subscription business instead of focusing on the direct response
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advertising that they have been focused on and maybe a bit misplaced. they seem to be checking a lot of the boxes that advertisers are looking for but doesn't seem to be resonating with advertisers at the moment. >> for the shares to be basically flat today is the market saying the odds of takeover less than 50% >> i think so. we have to remember that the stock ran up right after elon's initial disclosure and the board seat and been volatility in the shares on the involvement but the market is telling us that the likelihood of a takeover is diminishing throughout the day. >> wow. >> mark cuban tweeted about this there's curse words. my conclusion is musk is messing with the s.e.c cuban points to the fact that
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the numbers 420 are in the offer. similar to considering taking tesla private supposedly putting the 420 in there and saying that this might be a plan to have the price go up and then musk could sell the shares. you know musk well is this something that he would do this is a serious situation. >> are you asking do i think he's trolling? >> basically. >> that's a strong suggestion. he's at home saying i'll throw this out there i don't think that's the case. he made an offer here. there's the poerpt also that he could say i'm going to make this offer and there's a good chance that the twitter board will reject it as a best and final offer and want to negotiate. you know what? if i don't want to be part of twitter i can issell the stake. >> anything to that 420 being in there? people pointing to that.
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>> yeah. that does seem to be a common theme in the tweets and probably realizes that it needs a five handle and throw 420 in there after. yeah we did notice that. >> dan, where do we go from here >> we have to see what the twitter board says in response the market thinks they will reject this. i think phil's analysis is correct. elon will say i tried and there's maybe a plan "b" and buys a smaller social network but we have to wait and see what the board says the all hands is interesting they will have questions and management can say i don't know, i don't know, i don't know not because they're deflecting but that's legitimate. >> on that note this reminds me of the controversy at disney where as we often say
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institutions are the shadows of men. disney has an employee base to reflect the point of view of bob iger having to contend with the new ceo and twitter's employee base reflects the progressive values of jack dorsey. so the culture clash here and employee departure feels like a risk potentially if this moves forward as elon would like it to. >> maybe but i think they have thousands of employees and smaller than disney and younger in terms of working at the company but i think that the reason why i would ask about what's going to happen with the employee base at twitter is the mere fact of uncertainty. twitter's current company and board management probably wants to do one thing with the company
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and musk probably wants to do a different thing with the company and creates uncertainty. there are a lot of jobs in the silicon valley and san francisco area and you can imagine opportunity for people at the company so if you're unsure whether or not the job is around in six months and those employees might be looking for other options in terms of whether or not employees would be excited to work for elon musk or wary of working for musk one idea put out there earlier today is an idea to work for a platform reaches people and if musk gets rid of advertising making twitter a subscription platform employees might be less enthusiastic to support the smaller base. >> shares turned negatively fractionally leslie, a question last night vanguard disclosed an updatedstake in twitter.
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top shareholder, not musk. does that impact his ability to try to take the company private at all >> it depends. if the poison pill goes through that prevents him from increasing the stake if it doesn't that allows him to become the largest shareholder again. an interesting defense mechanism is this idea that if i were the twitter board i would call the biggest shareholders the prince was tweeting and doesn't believe that the deal makes sense for the company. the hostile takeover won't work to tender the shares for that kind of a deal so that could be something to see as well as this thing plays out. >> fascinating thank you all. great to have you all here as we continue to follow the headlines and dig through what it means
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for twitter shares fluctuating throughout the session today. >> absolutely. something to really watch. we have to see what people on twitter think and then the people in the company think and how big of an impact on the board. >> for sure. we'll wrap up the "power lunch" travel week with a look at the cruise lines. will people be forever worried about cruising coca-cola on the 52-week high list. back to 1919 dollar general and dollar tree hitting a new high we'll hear from analyst who's worried. "power lunch" will be right back ♪♪
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welcome back to "power lunch. we're continuing and in fact wrapping up the travel week series after booking the trip, the plane, the hotel hey, now boarding a cruise the cruise lines have had a great comeback from the march 2020 lows. carnival up 63%. royal caribbean nearly tripled norwegian more than doubled. if you believe the comeback can continue, which stock is the best bet joining us is travel analyst at citigroup market the market rendering the verdict saying norwegian is the ship to pick from the lows they the leader from now on? >> yeah.
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it's a tough question. you cited how much those stocks are up since their bottom. i also think it's worth noting that versus 2019 levels we're still looking at down 60% relative to an s&p up 40. >> wow. >> these have been massive underperformers. if you think about what few categories have left, have still not entirely reopened, right, the cruise industry is one of the last remaining pure play reopening stories so i think there's an opportunity there you brought up norwegian the case in favor of norwegian is to target a more upscale consumer and if you think about the upside and downside scenario i think investors feel more comfortable about the outlook for the higher end consumer than
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the average consumer. >> sure. but i like your point about how the stocks are still down in some cases 60% from pre-pand levels do they have a debt hangover from dealing with the pandemic or is it pure demand where we aren't back yet to those levels and questions whether we ever will be? >> sure. definite yes in terms of the first question and remains to be seen with respect to the second. by our math carnival has diluted the earnings power by 50% since prior to the pandemic. that's a combination of increased interest expense and equity the number for norwegian is higher than that and so, it's going to take a while for them to get back to pre-pandemic earnings power level. which gets us into the second question right?
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i think there's a lot of concern that there's a segment of the population that won't get back into cruising. and so as we look to the summer we are hoping to get answers to some of the questions. >> james, you said you have to look to the summer we see covid variants rise again. how big an impact is that on the cruise industry? i think we thought we were passed the pandemic. >> it is the million-dollar question good news is if you look at the impact on travel generally but certainly the cruise space from delta to omicron, the dip sort to speak was much more short lived with omicron which i think is at least some evidence that the consumer broadly especially the u.s. consumer is over it to a large degree i would be surprised if this most recent variant plays a major role in terms of scaling
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back cruise demand and bookings but at the end of the day this is something that consumers have to learn to live with as we move forward. >> thank you. ahead on proumpbl, retail sales prizing amid inflation and consumers don't seem to slow down plus the new omicron variant spreading across the u.s mask mandates returning to philly ow lchrern you the latest when "perun" tus.
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shares down 4% let's get to bertha coombs. >> thank you a judge has ordered the suspect accused of opening fire in a crowded new york subway be held without bail prosecutors told the judge that frank james terrified the city and the shooting was carefully planned. james' lawyers asked the court to approve a mental health evaluation. crude oil has risen. the european union is drafting a ban on russian oil imports and been a topic in europe because of what it would do to energy prices and the risks to create in unified support for sanctions against russia. two house democrats launched an investigation into i.d..me. the identify contractor hired by the irs.
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this according to "the washington post. the lawmakers are reportedly seeking info on the accuracy and security of id.me's service. back over to you. >> thank you consumer spending is strong but the next guest isn't bullish about earnings. two hours until happy hour we'll pull out the teetohr-sck lunch when "power lunch" returns.
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welcome back to "power lunch. 90 minutes left in the trading day. stocks, bonds, commodities and the outlook for inflation. let's begin with the markets stocks losing steam. the dow recovering after dipping into the red nasdaq down nearly 1.5% today. now to oil closing the week with another gain on monday crude dipped down to $94 before spiking on tuesday. now at $1.06 nat gas up for the week. bond yields rising and nearly a three-year high. the cpi numbers gave hope that
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inflation may be peaking are they right two market veterans joining us let's bring in ron insana and also with us is jerry castalini. gentlemen, thank you both for being here. >> thank you. >> ron, big question is inflation peaking does the fed with the moves making have enough in the arsenal to engineer a soft landing? >> i mean, i think the latter question is most difficult to answer at this point insofar as the underlying causes for inflation have little to do in my estimation with interest rate policy we see nearly a third of china's population in partial or full lockdown and exacerbating supply chain disruptions and more sanctions against russia pushing up energy prices inflation may well peak in the
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second half of this year but there are too many factor that is we didn't count on. the extension of the pandemic. the extension of the war that are holding prices up and keeping supplies of inputts limited for inflation to die down in the next couple of months. >> jerry, are we reaching peak inflation right now? >> we are at peak rate of change so the highest year over year number is probably printed this month or next but to think that the number will get back down to 1, 2, 3 level we saw the last four years is a fool's errand. the reality is there's too many things happening simultaneous right now and quite frankly the worst nightmare for investors is what's going on in energy and materials and setting it up for a stationary inflation rise.
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>> you are of the mind that investors are dragged into the energy and material play why do you say they're being dragged there? >> think of the worst possible thing. as an investor you have been trained over ten years now to look for things that disrupt and take people away from high asset intensive industries you've been willing to pay high rates of multiple evaluation for fast growing businesses like this all of a sudden out of left field comes this reality, this tragedy really that we don't have enough commodity and resource to grow the economy out of the pap it is beyond now question because what the russian situation did is pull this forward. now beyond question that we are short stuff and investors are skeptical saying i have done this before and comes back and missing the reality that all the
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economists folks understanding see and that's what's hard you're still trading the companies at four and five times cash flow and the high pe multiple tech names go down. that's a horrible place to be out of the comfort zone. >> ron, paying close to the yield market the 10-year at 2.827 why what message does that send to the markets? >> i'm not sure about that the bond market's been so volatile we sold off on what perceived to be peak inflation numbers and then with very little impetus today seeing interest rates rise again so i think that there's a great deal of confusion in the marketplace about inflation and how aggressive the fed gets. whether or not they're risking a
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recession. yesterday yes. today no looking at the yield curve i don't know i think it's a confusing time and again it's hard to play the counter factual but were it not for the pandemic and the war in ukraine the world would look vastly different by for 40 years we put actual over labor and financial assets over real assets and going through a structural change with. >> where does that leave you with exposure is this. >> i don't know. i think this is where you have to get selective i'm always though a little bit skeptical about the so-called commodity super cycle because if the fed does go too far engineering a recession commodities will break it is just a matter of when. one has to be tactical and more
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active in the approach to investing than accustomed to. >> jerry >> yeah. i don't think the fed will go take us all the way down they acknowledge they can kill housing and kill durable good sales but if we're simply out of the major commodities and talking about the things that the clean and green energy require. we need a five to ten-year capital cycle here and if there's a slowdown in the economy those are issues i think investors are going to be struggling with buying names in a pullback they aren't familiar with buying. >> all right we'll leave it there we appreciate it still ahead three stocks, three big moves and three
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trades obama, nike, a banking stock with a bearish outlook the three-stock lunch is next. from luxury to the dollar store, consumers spend. one analyst says to go shopping in the sector be very selective. didn't we just hear that this enis llarngwi be will be a tough one he says. (vo) some bonds last a lifetime. some bonds inspire confidence, and some you grow to rely on. these are the bonds worth investing in. for over 50 years, pimco has reinvented fixed income to create opportunities for investors in every market environment. so, no matter what happens you can build the bonds that mean the most to you. pimco, a global leader in active fixed income. hey businesses! you all deserve something epic!
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welcome back to "power lunch. that preliminary consumer sentiment read for april, beat estimates nicely also retail sales showing that spending remains strong despite the rise in inflation. bank of america said card spending up 15% in the first eight days of april from a year ago. spending is up 33% versus the same period in 2019. so the retailers been on a tear from high end names to discount stoefrs but the next guest lowered guidance ahead of earnings ike, first of all, one week we
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talk about retail doing badly and then how they do great how -- isn't the xrt not doing that great what is the story for investors in this space right now? >> yeah. no it is a good question. look the market is forward looking. if you talk to these companies today in realtime they fell you that they feel great demand is outstripping supply. i think the issue with investors is we are looking forward and we have seeing that especially in my space the soft line space we have overshot on demand. so much demand fueled by reopening, stimulus, et cetera, we think the apparel categories, everyone has bought more than we normally do and what's going to happen and what we talked about being more concerned is inventory starts to build. the companies get too
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optimistic misplan. all of a sudden the record gross margins come down and why the stocks are - >> so showing the xrt down 15% this year. you highlight three dames to downgrade. why do you think they in particular face a reality check here >> frankly downgraded them last week we don't want to play in them at all. i think apparel is risky a category overshot. margin structures all overshot and forgotten that for eight years a deinflationary and competitive space to play in and more risk. where we want to narrow the focus and recommend stocks and space that are also beat up that have great risk rewards is outside of apparel bath and body works, tap tri, capri, handbags.
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this is a better area to play. >> so ike, i have been shopping recently went to a nike stoefr. couple months nothing was on sale now quite a few. where is inventory at? the cost to carry the inventory is rising. warehouse space. where's the inventory levels how have is that weighing on the stocks >> great point there's two conversations. there's how's inventory yesterday and how's inventory tomorrow if you look back at 2021 it was the cleanest selling environment we have ever seen and why the companies have record gross margins and everyone believes they have the most pricing power in the world the concern is that inventory sale spreads are starting to cross into negative territory. the field work is showing clearance levels are starting to pick up and i think you see that
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promotional intensity pick up and the companies overplay on revenue and then top line misses and exacerbates the situation. >> that's a threat to retail everies. i was speaking to the ceo of duke realty sabing that they are trying to pull inventory forward. are supply chain issues weighing on the retail companies? last year was the cleanest that we have seen but so many factors weighing on the availability of products and we want to buy the spring and summer clothes. >> no. great point you made and that's dangerous is you're right. companies starting to order and talking to the management teams it is understandable they need to get ahead of bottlenecks and constraints and order more the issue is if you start to
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miss demand by a little bit and ordering more inventory to protect yourself there bad things can happen and then the margins on the businesses come in way worse and then thought the stock was cheap and the numbers down 25% not cheap anymore. >> i have to root for more sales. i like to see sales. >> me too. >> thank you for being here. >> thank you. three big moves. the trader will tell you whether to buy or sell today
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time for the three stock lunch. on the menu three big movers let's bring in gina sanchez at ledo advisers. thank you for being here we start with nike ubs saying after a meeting with leadership it is very bullish and the company is set up to be an outperformer. on pace for the best day since december you say nike is a quality play and quality is king. >> absolutely. so nike is a stock that we own in our strategies. there's an few different reasons
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if you believe that inflation is going to eventually weigh on consumers based on the consumer sentiment that's not the case but if you do believe that then you want a brand to defend in a scarce demand environment and that's absolutely nike but on the flip side if you think that the recovery will continue, this is a company that has strong brand recognition, is set up for the reopening with its nike live in store strategy, and it's also pushing its gross margins by automation, by taking in localizing manufacturing, and also making their inventory more efficient. all of those things set up for a very strong play strong quality all the way around >> strong quality, nike is a pick ibm, gina. where are you on ibm which got an upgrade today at morgan stanley? >> ibm for us is a defensive
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play it's a story that if in fact you see a cut in i.t. spending, more than 50% of its revenues come from recurring contracts and so we see that as a strong defensive play but even if this isn't a defensive environment, so this could go either way, nike has -- sorry, ibm has also a strong new leadership team that is really r reinvigorating innovation through acquisitions, partnerships, so we think there's actually room for this company to continue to grow its revenues and in doing so, it's actually at a really good price right now. we see this as a great play in either direction >> all right so this is a tough one to follow up on. ibm, anything else you would add on this, gina? >> you know, i think, look, ibm is -- this is one that is trading at a slight premium.
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but we still think that because of strong leadership, we're going to see continued moves forward in their ability to generate revenue that's really kind of the core of what we're thinking in the worse case, it's still a very defensive play. in the best case, it's going to continue to invigorate it is going to continue to innovate, and that's going to drive revenues going forward >> one more. i hope three drinks aren't too much last but not least, wells fargo. shares falling on a revenue miss slowing mortgage demand weighing on results as mortgage rates cooling off the market quarterly profit fell 21% from a year ago you said you would actually hold on to this one >> so we do own this one as well and look, this one we buy as a value play you know, price to book ratio, it's actually very cheap but you look at the data that's coming out we have seen higher mortgage rates. we have seen falling existing home sales and we have seen falling mortgage applications.
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that's going to lead to a hit to a bank like wells fargo that derives a lot of earnings from that source of revenue however, wells fargo on the whole, it's still well capitalized. if you read the entire earnings release, it wasn't all bad news. they in fact have reduced their capital -- their setasides for capital loss, for credit losses. they have also grown their average loan size because of commercial lending so it's not all bad, but it doesn't necessarily look great either this is definitely a value play, a well capitalized bank. fin fact we see some reinvigoration, some calming anywhere, this is a company that could set up to actually rebound. for now, however, you're buying it still at a very good price. >> wells fargo shares down 4.5%. gina sanchez, we appreciate the three-stock lunch. >> ahead of a big holiday weekend where lots of family
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let's brynn in meg tirrell for more on where we stand on covid now and where we might stand in a couple more weeks. >> yeah, kelly, so of course, there are ways to make these gathering safer. vaccinations, boosts, testing if you want to incorporate that before you go. we are seeing trends increase, at least in terms of cases nationally right now and more so really predominantly in the northeast cases have been in a trough. now they're ricing above 30,000 again. hospitalizations are close to pandemic lows right now, although we're starting to see them rise in certain states. deaths around 500 a day, obviously down a lot, but not yet close to the low that we saw last summer. ba.2, the more contagious version of omicron, is now of course predominant in the u.s. you can see it's risen to 86% of sequenced cases in the u.s. now. this really driving this, and the big question is, is this going to lead to another big wave of cases, hospitalizations, and severe disease ahead we just don't know yet
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but according to nbc data, hospitalizations are rising in 12 states right now. you can see they're predominantly in the northeast there. vermont really the hardest hit, at least in the two-week turnover off very small numbers that's really important to remember we're not talking about huge numbers of patients in the hospital, but we're starting to see upticks. philadelphia becoming the first city to reimpose a mask mandate starting on monday a lot of debate about this in the public health community. was that the right way to go are they being prudent they say they're trying to prevent a wave from coming we do after holiday weekends see an uptick in cases the hope is it doesn't translate to more severe disease >> still no vaccine for the under-5s any progress on that front >> yeah, kelly when we got the news from pfizer they got the third dose data, i wasoping it was for under 5s it was 5 to 11-year-olds which is necessary information they're going to file with the fda for a booster for that
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group. we're still waiting for data for under-5s they have data for under-6s so that should be moving through in the next weeks and months. >> all right, meg, we appreciate it as always let's take a quick break at the markets which are kind of ending this shortened trading week on a sour note. the dow has just turned negative by 18 or so. >> right now, the s&p down almost a percent the nasdaq the hardest hit today. interest rate pressure continues to really hit the tech heavy nasdaq >> and interest rate pressure coming off a little stronger data the consumer sentiment report this morning probably the main piece that people have been citing as a risk for recession it had plunged, slowed a little bit of ary bound this morning. shall we check on twitter? >> ithink we have to down 2%. obviously, the spike -- the stock had a big spike earlier today. i believe up about 11% earlier on the news elon musk wants to take the company private a lot of questions about his
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ability to actually do so, a lot of questions about the bid itself, 5420, very similar to when he mentioned taking tesla at 420 >> the board doesn't seem interested right now ball's in his court. if he thinks he can somehow still get it done around that resistance >> big meeting after the bell at 5 clock. >> frank, it's been a pleasure thanks for watching "power lunch. "closing bell" starts right now. >> the dow is slipping again and the nasdaq is sinking to session lows on the final trading day of a shortened week the most important hour of trading starts now welcome, everyone, to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen here's where we stand in the market right now pressure on big tech down 1.85% on the nasdaq, it's the rising rates we got a bit of a reprieve on yields in the last few days, but that's gone higher and that's pressuring big tech. all the big mega cap names are feeling it software, chips, you name it, tesla also not helping it's lower on the elon musk bid fo

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