those incentives only vest if they meet. >> exactly >> we get paid about $250 million for this we want you to know about the "power lunch" podcast. you can listen to us on the go look for us on your favorite podcast app. follow the "power lunch" podcast. >> leave us a review that's what people always say. leave a review, follow thanks for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" right now. >> stocks mostly higher heading into the close after an up and down session the most important hour of trading starts now welcome, everyone, to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen here's where we stand in the market higher as i mentioned, though off the highs of the day dow got as high as up 1 skaesk we lost a lot of gains, up 34 points or so best performer is energy, financial, technology, and materials. some of the hardest groups like semis and software are bouncing back, but you have weakness in the defensive groups like health care and consumer staples weighing on the overall market nasdaq is flat, and small caps are lower. want to zoom in on the energy

sector because it's the best performer today. oil prices are rising and names like volero, cotara energy, philips 66, and occidental are leading the change coming up, jan hatzius out with a new note today on the impact ofhigher mortgage rates on the hot housing market home builders have been wrecked this year. plus, the world bank just loss the global forecast by nearly a percentage point we'll ask david malpass what's behind the prediction. >> averages volatile in the session. we're not trading higher despite the ten-year yield continuing to march to a new high, hitting the highest level since december 2018 let's bring in jason trennert and jim bianco gentlemen, good to have both of you. how are we set up for earnings season given treasury yields continue to rise on already high levels

>> listen, i think, sara, at this point it's in my opinion the path of least resistance for long term interest rates is still higher it's important to remember the fed has only tightened 25 basis points, and their preferred measure of inflation is at about 5.5% the cpi is about 8.5%. so there's a long way to go. and frame our perspective -- >> but the market is pricing in eight or nine hikes. isn't that already in the market >> that's in the bond market i'm convinced it's not in the stock market at this point because i think there's a lot of -- i think there are a lot of tech issues, a lot of stocks trading at a multiple of sales that in my opinion are not going to be able to withstand significantly higher interest rates. i think we're at a point now as we transition from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening, where capital is going to be rationed i think we had, and everyone gets a trophy cost of capital for about 13 years, since the last financial crisis, and i think now it's going to be a

little different >> jim, what about you do you feel that rising rates are going to be a big headwind still for stocks >> oh, yeah. i think they are, and i want to underscore what jason just said, too. the bond market is pricing in nine or ten rate hikes for this year depending on how you measure it and that's specifically the short end of the bond market, like fed fund futures traders, but when you move out to long term bonds and equities, most of them think the fed is going to go four or five times and then stop and they're in for a surprise if that's what doesn't happen i think the fed is fully intendant on being every bit as aggressive as they say as rates move higher, it is going to become a bigger and bigger headwinds, and what i'm trying to say is no, it's not priced in that we're going to have aggressively higher interest rates >> so jason, what do you do in this environment because you do have some parts of the market working this year against the backdrop of rising

rates. energy keeps going higher. and then you have some of the defensives working well like staples and health care. not today, but in general. what's the playbook? >> right i think the playbook, sara, not that different than the playbook you might have in bonds, which is to say that for stocks, you want to be in shorter duration equities which is just a fancy way of saying you want companies that are throwing off cash either to buy back stock or to pay dividends. the companies that aren't -- don't generate a lot of cash, that certain return money to shareholders in many ways act as zero coupon bonds. they get killed. in my opinion, the sectors wi like the most right now are energy, basic materials, industrials, and health care i think you do have to be more selective as interest rates go higher there may be some other industry groups in some of the other sectors like regional banks and financials you have to thread a lot more carefully, probably hold a little more cash, and again,

really stick with higher quality companies that are going to return money to shareholders as a reg against inflation. >> jim, what do you think we're going to learn this earnings season optimistics are saying companies are in pretty good shape a lot have pricing power the consumer has been doing fine and it could be a positive catalyst the pessimists say actually, we have seen margins peak and the outlooks are going to be pretty dire what do you think? >> you know, that's a good question right now, if you look at what company guidance is giving us, it's a little more dour, that they're worried about the future and the word inflation comes up a lot in word searches of the conference calls we have been getting as of late but i will tell you who is looking at it very closely, and that's the federal reserve bill dudley wrote an op-ed, he was the former new york fed president, about two weeks ago where he said if the stock market doesn't go down, the fed might have to lower it he's suggesting the policy of the federal reserve is going to be to try to create some kind

offyverse wealth effect to help rein in inflation. so be careful if we get good earnings numbers because that might encourage the fed to go 50 every meeting as opposed to 25 >> i don't buy that. we had governor waller -- governor waller was on the show and he pushed back against that. he said we don't need to shock the market the whole point of forward guidance is to lay the groundwork for higher rates, which will do the job to put pressure on demand in the economy, without doing any kind of stock market shock. >> well, part of the stock market shock is they have to show that they're intendant in doing that he can't just say that because the market won't believe him. again, that gets back to that whole idea, we got ten rate hikes priced in, but if you look at surveys like the bank of america global fund manager survey, most of the managers don't think the fed is going to go anywhere near that. for governor waller to have the fed do what you want to do, you have to be prepared to go 50 every meeting because it doesn't believe you are. >> jason, you think the fed has to push back against the market

strength not that it's been that strong >> i think the main thing is the fed can't worry about what the market is doing. it has to fight inflation. and so the fed put that we have become so accustomed to since 2008, in my opinion, is deep out of the money i don't think the fed has the luxury of forecasting inflation anymore. it must fight inflation. it has to play the ball as it lies and right now, it looks like the fed's lost control and i think the only way they get control is by being aggressive this is also a midterm election year and so i think that's also an important moving part in this, in that inflation is at -- you know, it does seem to be out of control. it's a top most of the surveys of both businesses and consumers, and the fed has to protect its own independence, so it's going to have to get involved if only to protect its own reputation >> jason, we'll leave it there jim, always good to see you as well there go the gains s&p 500 up 2 points.

after the break, bank of america and charles schwab moving in opposite directions after reporting results before the bell we'll talk to the ceo of kbw for his outlook in the sector in the second quarter you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. dow up seven points. i could've waited to tell my doctor my heart was racing just making spaghetti... but i didn't wait. i could've delayed telling my doctor i was short of breath just reading a book... but i didn't wait. they told their doctors. and found out they had... atrial fibrillation. a condition which makes it about five times more likely to have a stroke. if you have one or more of these symptoms irregular heartbeat, heart racing, chest pain, shortness of breath, fatigue or lightheadedness,

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today. bank of america getting a boost after posting first quarter earnings this morning. that beat analyst estimates. check out charles schwab going the otherday, that stock tanking on the back of results the company missed estimates on both the top and bottom lines. joining us with his takeaway from bank earnings overall is tommy sho. nice to see you, tom it's sort of surprising, everything that we got from the banks, because i thought the brokers and the big american lender type banks, the wells fargos of the world, would do the best this earnings season and, it's sort of been the opposite weren't they waiting and waiting for higher interest rates? what's the problem >> so exactly. the whole bull case on this group, on bank stocks is we were going to finally start to get revenue growth because interest rates were coming off zero and we were going to get a reemergence of loan growth that in fact has been happening, but the change in the macro backdrop along the lines of potential for stagflation, there's some who think recession

is on the horizon, we have a tough market for ortgage, whic we knew. we knee we were going to have a tough comparison in investment banking. banks with a broader footprint of businesses are the ones that are going to be the most challenges we have just had eight of the top ten banks already report earnings kind of starting now after the close today, we're going to start to see the midcap, the midcap regional banks start to report earnings. these are the companies who don't have a lot of the businesses that are facing lots of headwinds these are the ones thereat more spread dependent, and we think these results are going to start to be different. believe me, they'll still have some headwinds, but they're not going to carry as much of the challenge as some of the companies you just mentioned that are in a lot of the bigger banks. >> i know you have liked the regionals now that's been your call for a little while. my question, tom, is one of the problems with the bigger banks has been that, yes, rising rates certainly help profits, but not if those rising rates lead to

recession or a sharp slowdown. wouldn't that be the same issue for regional banks as well >> they would. they would but let's talk about how much has already been priced in to the stocks already so absolutely, so the whole macro theme has changed since year end to now. so the chances of inflation stronger than we all thought, you're talking earlier about the world bank taking down growth forecasts. growth forecasts in the u.s., so all of that is happening but let me give you something about perception actually, i know bank of america is up 4% today but the reality is we think the main message out of their conference call was that they reiterated guidance. they actually didn't take guidance up. that's all it took to make the stock go up 4% when the market is flat. that tells you how bearish investors have been on some of these bank earnings. i'll give you another fact etfs for the year peaked on february 10th in terms of aum.

the financial services etfs have lost 10% of their aum since february 10th. that is an incredible outflow out of this group. and as you know, sara, we're in a new world of passive investing. when money decides to flow out of the group, they sell all the stocks regardless of whether they're well positioned or not for this environment, so our view is we have done the work we have gotten more narrow on the stocks and so we are focusing on smid-cap regional banks like pinnacle financial reporting today. we like east west bank which is reporting on thursday. granted, if we get a recession, i don't think these stocks are telling us we're going to have a recession. these stocks will have trouble, as will the whole market but even if we just get stagflation, i think these stocks are well positioned, the ones i just mentioned. >> what about jpmorgan that is

down 20% for the year? >> look, now jpmorgan is a terrific company it will continue to do very well through most cycles in my opinion. but there are headwinds everywhere i even think jamie had been talking about it the thing, too, is the largest banks have to mark their bond portfolios to market for regulatory capital they all just took a big whack in the first quarter it's coming again in the second quarter. and so that is going to impact share repurchase for the nation's biggest banks plus, they'll still going to have headwinds in other businesses right now, their breadth of businesses is probably working against them a little bit relative to some of these regional banks >> that's as bearish as i have heard you in a while on some of the big banks. >> we researched 211 banks, sara, and we don't like them all all the time, right now, we would say the macro investors are taking money out of

financial services, etfs like crazy. we would look and see where the market is already incorporated that news, where we're pretty optimistic about the fundamentals, and it would be smid-cap regional banks. >> we'll start looking for those earnings thank you. >> thank you >> let's check the markets we just went negative on the dow and s&p 500. pretty unchanged but there you see it, we have been wavering all day long strength in energy, financials, consumer discretionary, tierls, and technology but health care, staples, u utilities are lower. those are the defensive. the nasdaq down about .1%. nothing sharp here small caps taking it a little rougher, down .5%. oil prices higher, treasury yields higher as well. world bank president david malpass on why they slashed the global outlook to 3.2%, and the impact of rising mortgage rates on the housing market when we're

joined by jan hatzius, and as we head to break, check out some of the top searched tickers ten-year yield on top. prices lower, yields higher. we're looking at the highest yield since 2018 also on the list is bank of america, up almost 4%, reiterating guidance, better earnings twitter continued drama with elon musk, up 7% tesla ahead of earnings up 2%. and apple, which is down about .1%. overall, technology is holding up we'll be right back. what if you were a gigantic snack food maker? and you had to wrestle a massively complex supply chain to satisfy cravings from tokyo to toledo? so you partner with ibm consulting to bring together data and workflows so that every driver and merchandiser

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the world bank today slashing its global growth forecast this year to 3.2%, down big from the previous estimate of 4.1%, as countries deal with the war in ukraine to inflation to the pandemic. joining us, today's closer is david malpass. good to have you back on givenfactors coming together, what is the risk of a global recession >> that's not our baseline forecast so we're lowering the growth, recognizing that inflation when higher prices hit people, they can't spend as much on other things so that's getting factored in. also, the sharp recession in russia, more than that, you know, the decline there, and also china, it's slowing some

because of the covid shutdowns so that all just adds in to a slower outlook for this part of the recovery the big issue, and i'm very concerned about it, is the differential impact on developing countries and especially the poorest inflation hits the poorer the hardest. i think the solution is supply, more supply, but that's not materializing at this point. >> no, i mean, food insecurity is a huge problem, and this crisis that we are seeing as a result of lower exports of everything, right, from grains to oil to fertilizers from russia and ukraine how do we divert a potential epic hunger crisis, and unrest that typically follows these periods in history >> those all connect, from energy intof fertilizer into better yields for crops and those are faltering right now.

i think the world response, it's important to both supply resources for the poorest countries. we can do that from our own programs we're planning a big surge from world bank commitments, $170 billion over this 15-month period, recognizing the severity of the crisis on the poor and on developing countries so we can help some. and i think the world can help some one thing advanced economies could do is open their markets more than they have been i saw corn was above $8 a bushel today. yet the u.s. is putting a big chunk of the corn crop into ethanol to substitute for gasoline so it drives, you know, one of the biggest things the advanced economies could do is have pro supply policies in their own policies to begin to grapple

with inflation >> maybe they should be shipping it off maybe instead i wanted to ask you about china because wall street is very focused on the china groewth question we got gdp out today, 4.8% more than expected even though retail spending has been weak, investment has been weak, shanghai has been sealed off for weeks now. what is the outlook there? >> china's economy has strengths. the world has been quite dependent on the supply chains from china, so they have a lot of exports the u.s. has been adding to demand, both through the fiscal spending and through monetary policy that's been stimulative of demand. and so from china's standpoint, it's been an okay world economy and a recovery from covid. i do think that they face a lot of challenges within their economy of allowing transition

also, demographics are a challenge. we work with them a lot. they're a big shareholder. we're working with them also on debt transparency in order to try to have a better environment for the developing countries which have taken on a lot of dent from china in order to try to move forward themselves >> i don't -- they're not recovering from covid. they're going backwards. i don't understand how this zero covid policy is going to play out. are they just going to remain in lockdown didn't we learn here in this part of the world that you cannot suppress this virus >> yeah, the lockdowns are a challenge to figure, are they really -- what are they going to help and how is it going to work i was putting more emphasis on the china's economy is built on currency stability, on prices moving some, and they have had a lot of demand from the rest of the world.

so that's helped them a lot. as we think about the effect of covid, one of the most dramatic areas is on education. we're just seeing the numbers in the world bank we have big education programs around the developing world. and the data is clear that when kids are out of school, they not only don't learn, but they go backward so as they now come into school again, they're at a lower level. and that's a big challenge for the curriculum in the schools and it means a lot of kids are not reading at their age levels. and that sets them back, you know, we talk about it for a decade a decade of setbacks for the children in the developing world. i'm really concerned about that. and we're hoping we're encouraging countries to bring the kids back to school and keep them in school >> sounds like a message there

for china and one that we know all too well thank you for sounding the alarm on that. president david malpass, we appreciate it, of the world bank >> and on that note, we will be talking much more about headwinds facing the world this week i'm hosting the imf's debate on the global economy at thursday at 1:00 p.m. the panelists include the head of the imf, ecb president christine lagarde and more you can watch it on cnbc and it will be streaming on cnbc.com, youtube, facebook. doesn't get much better than that losses picking up steam. dow down about 93 points or so so heading back toward the lows. the s&p down about .25%. looks worse because we had been gaining up until about 3:00. energy and financials are strong, but health care staples, utilities weak industrials and communication services dipping into the red. nasdaq down .4%. >> up next, a look at which companies could be big winners

and the losers as well off the back of rising interest rates. ten-year yield continues to move up 2.85%. we hit past 2.% da90toy. we'll be right back. (vo) while you may not be a pediatric surgeon volunteering your topiary talents at a children's hospital — your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your passions, and the way you give back. so you can live your life. that's life well planned.

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today in the big picture, we're looking at the impact of rising rates with the ten-year approaching 2.9% on consumer stocks rising rates will hurt the consumer who wins in that environment companies with exposure to lower income consumers for one as people trade down and cut their household budgets. and those that cater to wealthy consumers, who are more immune to rising rates. that's according to randy conic of jefferies that's why he likes planet fitness and five below they're both value plays with

mostly u.s. businesses because another problem with rising rates is the rising dollar which hurts multinational earnings who loses the inmiddle income consumer companies think gap or department stores also, staple stocks have decent steady dividends which are less attractive when rates rise because bonds are the alreadytalready alternatives that's why the highest dividend payers work great. kraft with 4.5%. campbells soup, they're low growth companies with high cash flow and extra high dividend payers they're working really well right now, for those reasons the market isn't paying up for growth, which is why a lot of steady stables are growing hersheys, very domestic, no worries about global growth and the stronger dollar, as opposed to mondelez, which is more exposed to emerging markets and europe and is underperforming. >> when we come back, jan hatzius on how rising interest

rates will impact another area of the economy, the housing market >> plus, the latest on the twitter saga and the plunge in chinese internet stocks when we take you inside the market zone. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it!

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when you need it, and they deliver. - [narrator] ziprecruiter. rated the number one hiring site. try it for free at ziprecruiter.com try it for free at ziprecruiter.com seg lows we're now in the closing bell market zone breaking down the crucial moments of the trading day. we have jan hatzius, chief economist on the impact of rising interest rates on housing. leslie picker on another big day for bank earnings. and kristina partsinevelos on a rough day for chinese internet stocks just want to point out, the dow is down 160 points or so we have lost all the gains and then some. we're looking at some pretty broad weakness the only sectors in the s&p 500 that remain positive, energy,

oil prices are jumping and financials, on that reaction to bank of america and some strength in the regionals. utilities, industrials, health care moving south. staples as well. the defensive names and even technology dipped into the red take a look at housing stocks. under pressure again today as new data shows home builder sentiment dropped to a seven-month low as the higher mortgage rates keep going up goldman sachs is out with a note saying while a significant increase in mortgage rates has weighed on housing, the extreme supply-demand imbalance in today's market will likely dampen the hit on housing activity joining us, jan hatzius. so jan, what do you expect as far as the housing market outlook over the next year >> we are expecting basically a sideways move in residential investment because as you said, as you summarized, the supply-demand imbalance is so extreme that we think there is

only going to be a relatively modest hit to activity in the housing market we did, however, downgrade our expectations for home price growth this year should still be pretty strong still have cumulatively 10% partly because there's so much momentum there and then have a slowdown to low single digits mid next year. >> is this going to be a challenge for the fed because of the supply issues? housing is one of the primary mechanisms they weaken demand in the overall economy by rising interest rates >> yeah, i mean, i think it is a challenge in the sense that you are going to get less of an impact through that channel. i do think there are some other factors that will probably bring growth down pretty significantly. i mean, the fiscal drag in particular, you need to take into account in addition to whatever monetary drag you see, but yes, housing taken by itself is going to be less responsive

than normal. >> so what do you expect broadly then for the consumer, as we go through the remainder of the year housing demand holds up better, what does that say overall >> i think consumer spending, again, slow growth i think we will still see positive numbers, but trend or somewhere around trend and sort of the high 1s, with obviously some ups and downs we have been seeing a rebound in services, basically because of the rebound from omicron that's going to fade we're seeing some increases in infections again i don't think there is going to be a large impact on activity, but generally, i think it's going to be a pretty sluggish environment. >> you don't expect a recession this year, and i think have been increasing the odds that it hans next year. are we still in the 30% or so range? >> yeah, i mean, our probability, you know, this is a

judgmental probability, 35% cumulatively of a recession starting over the next couple years. which is higher than sort of the unconditional just average frequency of recessions. but i think there is still, you know, a narrow path to a soft landing. it's going to be hard to do because history says once the labor market is overheated, it gets harder for the fed to pull off a soft landing but as the economy slows, i think that would improve the probability. slower growth now would actually be good, i think, for the prospects that we don't have a recession. >> so ultimately, when it comes to the fed and the markets, what -- which way does the fed have the bigger potential to surprise on the hawkish side or on the dovish side, given the market is now positioning for so many interest rate increases and

shrinking the balance sheet? >> i mean, i do think there are upside and downside risks. i think the next couple meetings, very likely, we're going to get 50 basis point hikes. beyond that, we do have a slowdown in the pace of hikes later in the year. i think that's basically because at that point, i think inflation is going to be somewhat lower. we're going to get a benefit in the good sector, at least in terms of year on year changes. growth i think is going to be slower but it's certainly possible they go in 50 basis point steps for longer so but you have to balance that against the risk of a sharper slowdown, and there is a meaningful risk that you do see a recession, even though that's not our baseline case. >> jan hatzius, thank you for your latest thoughts and for joining us here in the market zone, of goldman sachs >> it was a tale of two financial stocks today bank of america, one of the best performers in the s&p after

beating wall street's earnin estimates. strong consumer lending was an offset to a 35% drop in investment banking fees there. meanwhile, charles schwab is the biggest decliner in the benchmark index. due to a slowdown in trading why is it volatility from q1 was largely a positive for the big banks. not so much for schwab or the brokerages this is a big surprise >> schwab suffering tremendously today, largely due to the fact their retail trading has abated over the quarter, especially, remember back to a year ago, that was the whole meme stock frenzy that was gamestop and other things that really took retail trading by storm. so when you look at kind of the comparables from a year ago, schwab saw a 22% decline in average trades during the quarter. it also happened to miss analyst estimates, which caused the stock to slump on the other hand, this isn't so much the case for bank of america, which generates the largest proportion of its

revenue from consumer. however, for some of the more wall street oriented bank institutional investors that transact with these banks did remain active in the quarter at least more so than analysts expected them to that was especially true within fig, fixed income currencies and commodities, and equities at places like morgan stanley >> it seems like overall, now that we had most of the big banks reporting, the message is one of uncertainty, right, when it comes to the outlook on the economy and what that's going to do to their business >> that's absolutely right i think some of the big moves today are largely in response to what you're seeing with treasuries today and the move higher there that's been a tailwind for bank of america, which did produce some pretty strong results today relative to some of their peers. but they are also helped by some macro factors as well. all of the big banks are in the red for the year, and that is largely due to the uncertainty that you're pointing to, this idea that historically, they

have been helped in a rising interest rate environment. it's more profitable for kind of the bread and butter of their business however, there's this concern and you and jan were just talking about this, this concern that a recession potentially looms and that would be bad for banking as a whole all of the diversity within their businesses, a recession would be a net negative for them >> yeah. be careful what you wish for on the higher rates for bank investors, i guess although today they're working jpm, american express, and goldman adding the most to the dow. want to hit twitter as well. a big winner after the social media company's board adopted a poison pill plan on friday to help stymie elon musk's $43 billion takeover offer musk firing back, of course, over the weekend, tweeting when former ceo and cofounder jack dorsey's term expires next month, the twitter board collectively owns almost no shares objectively, their economic interests are simply not aligned with shareholders. julia joins us now

there was a tease of a tender offer. what are musk's auoptions at th point? >> musk has many options he also has the augoption of deciding with thepoison pill, all of this is too much of a hassling and he could sell his shares and walk away based on his tweets over the weekend and today, that seems unlikely he has three major options the first seems the most obvious, to line up a financing partner and lay out his plan to the board. the second major option would be to leverage his stakes in tesla and spacex so potentially collateralize some of the stakes in order -- some of the stock in order to put together a finance plan to continue this buyout, and of course, he can challenge the poison pill in court, sara >> what about jack dorsey? so he's stepping off the board, he's the cofounder, can it sounds like he's criticizing the board as well on this point. could we see him teaming up with

elon musk to buy this company? where does that put him? >> yet another wild card in this very complex situation, sara jack dorsey did send a tweet that indicated on some of these issues he does agree with elon musk, and he explains in one of these tweets what went down, why he doesn't control the company and he pointed out when he was fired in 2008 and made share, the board took most of my shares away he said i gave 1% of the company back to the employee pool in 2015 he's explaining why he doesn't have controlling -- a controlling vote in the company. but also, sort of pointing fingers at the board for preventing him from owning more of twitter it will be interesting to see as they tweet at each other, this drama is of course all playing out on twitter, how he supports musk's argument. but in the meantime, you can bet that the board is looking for another buyer to pay more for twitter. >> absolutely. julia, keep us posted.

thank you. >> shares of didi plunging after the chinese ride hailing company reported a nearly 13% drop in fourth quarter revenue and announced shareholders will vote next month on whether to delist from the new york stock exchange the news putting pressure on the rest of the chinese internet stocks today kristina partsinevelos joins us. didi plans to delist in the u.s. before applying for home listing? what does that tell us about management this was always the fear for u.s. investors >> yeah, spaulsh shareholders that own didi right now. didi has gone ahead, they're going to have this meeting, delist from the united states. that's the goal, and they're going to wait it out during a dark period before even listing in hong kong that's the concerning part why are they doing this so quickly? it shows the relationship is still fraught with regulators in china, that they failed to comply or reach an agreement, i should say, going forward. and didi is not actually the only company to do this. just about four days ago, sohu.com, which is a chinese

internet provider, they said they're delisting from the nasdaq they have been on the nasdaq since early 2000 i think 2000 you can see the share price dropping over 4% and this is weighed negatively on the sector as a whole take for example kweb, another popular one. down 8 out of the last 9 sessions, and billy billy, that stock is on a six-month losing streak its worst losing streak since it listed in 2018 here in the united states. >> kristina, thank you been a rough ride. we're seeing new 52-week highs right now. dollar general, the dollar stores continue to ride high oil prices continue to shoot up. rivian's rough ride continues today. shares of the ev maker down sharply, plunged more than 50% since going public back in november the company's ceo is hoping to restore investor confidence by opening up the doors to its plant to reporters what is the biggest issue weighing on the stock right now? there was so much hope this would be the next tesla when it

went public. >> sure, and a lot of analysts still believe this could be the one company that could ultimately challenge tesla as an ev automaker, but the problem here is this is a show-me stock. what do i mean by that they have got to show they have got the production challenges behind them. now, in q1, they built just over 2500 vehicles. a noticeable increase from the fourth quarter and the build rate is increasing we saw that ourselves when we went to the plant in central illinois last week, and they have begun ramping up protection of the suv, but here's the problem. we won't know exactly where they are in terms of their production at least until the end of the quarter or until they report their q1 results which is going to be much later in may, late may, early june. so to a certain extent, this is a case where the company is improving its production we saw and talked with the ceo he said we're improving but until you can give actual numbers i think you'll have a number of investor whose say i'm on the sidelines for a while

>> like so many ev stocks, phil, that's what i'm wondering. where rivian stacks up with that group, which clearly the market is in no mood for future profits, right, or to pay up for growth companies where does rivian fit in with some of those other companies? because it was always considered sort of a premium bet for investors because it has the amazon backing >> right sure and that's a nice backstop in terms of having 100,000 orders for an electric delivery van we saw some of those on the assembly line in central illinois they're making those vehicles and doing to start deliveries there. if you're comparing them with lucid or fisker, they have 83,000 reservations. so they have a much bigger reservation pool, if you will, order bank, than lucid, than fisker the problem is, they have got a lot of demand. they just have to get the ramp-up in production. >> phil lebeau, thank you, on the rivian story >> take a look at the major

averages losing steam all hour. we got down to as low as 170 or so on the dow, down about 120. dragged by the nasdaq right now is treasury yields continue to climb, down 84 we're actually making back a little bit of ground let's bring in peter, chief investment officer as long as rates are rising, is there a path higher for stocks >> i think it's a tough one. i think when you look at what the fed wants to do and what the bond market on the short end has priced in, combined with a rather aggressive path with the balance sheet, the fed is literally slamming on the brakes i don't think they have ever tightened this aggressively in such a short period of time. so not only is that going to have implications for multiples, but it's obviously going to have an economic impact and what that means for earnings so i think it's a tough road for investors while the fed is going through this >> but you do always wonder how much is already priced in. i'm looking at nvidia, which is

strong today it's almost down 40% from the highs. so is that the right price for one of these high-growth but also sort of mega cap technology stocks in this rising rate environment? how do you know when it's enough is enough? >> it's a great question and it's really tough to answer. if we look at 2000 to 2002 as a guide, and i'm not talking about the junky stocks that went down 90%. even the microsoft, ciscos, intels went down more than 50% or 60% so if we're in this bear market that has been triggered by the move in monetary policy, there's still more pain to be had. we also have to put it in the context of how well a lot of these stocks have done over the past ten years >> you have also liked gold, which actually has had a pretty strong run, even with the u.s. dollar rising. why is this a good environment for gold >> well, amazingly, i thought

2021 was going to be a great environment for gold with the rise in inflation, and it was not because people thought that the fed would be able to contain inflation. this year, it's apparent that they can't and even in the face of a dollar that has rallied against some currencies and also the real rates that have shrunk, gold trade is great i think that also has to do with the safe haven status and also in response to the sanctions on the bank of russia did, because it could mean the diversification out of u.s. treasuries from a central bank perspective and owning more gold as it's no one's liability and it can't be confiscated. >> i know you were watching that theme and you watched the treasury capital data, the inflows there, which we will peter, thank you >> as we head into the close, we're looking at the fourth down day in the last five for the dow. couldn't hold on to the gains earlier in the session we still have strength in the financials goldman sachs is the biggest

positive contributor to the dow. home depot is the biggest drag houser hurt again. the s&p 500 is lower most sectors are lower, though you do have positive areas in the market in some of the growthier parts of the market. semi-conductors are holding on to gains into the close. i mentioned nvidia, but the whole group is doing okay, and information technology just popped into the green. you have some strength as i mentioned in the semis and in some of the other tech names as well, the mega caps. consumer discretionary also doing okay, thanks in large part to tesla which is up about 2%. some strength in the hotel names and the automakers as well financials and energy are your other two positive sectors right now. energy stocks doing well, continuing to make new highs here on the back of rising crude oil prices everyone in the energy sector is higher except for williams companies. bolero is up 9.1%. healthcare is a loser. so are staples, utilities, but again, that's been sort of the center of the action in the last few moments, the

nasdaq 100 ticking into positive territory. buying into the close. the dow comes way off its lows we have seen a dramatic swing in the last ten minutes or so down only 51 points here on the dow still going out with a decline, but look at the s&p, hugging the flat line. so we have a sharp sell-off and then a nice rally there into the close. nothing extreme. but that's sort of how it's been indecision kind of day, with a path of least resistance going down that does it for me. i'll send it into "overtime" with scott >> all right, sara, thanks so much welcome to "overtime." you just heard the bell. we here at post 9 are just getting started. i'll speak with tom lee about his views on the markets and whether a tweet ofhis speaks a trillion words plus, at this very moment, the outspoken fed president james bullard speaking with our own steve liesman. we'll bring you those headlines which could move futures in a couple hours' time we begin with our talk of the tape the twitter wars musk versus the company, dorsey

versus the board, and no