netflix is out of russia 1 million subscribers gone there. totally in line. makes sense. people are pulling back. >> talk to you soon. alex kantrowitz joining us by the way, since the second quarter of '18 netflix traded down 13 to the 15 earnings we'll be watching right here in "overtime" tomorrow the report and instant reaction that does it for us. "fast money" begins now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square this is "fast money. i'm melissa lee. ahead on "fast" all that glitters, gold crossing the 2k gnashing and theprecious metal up nearly 9% while the s&p down 7% should investors keep mining the metals we will dig in elon musk has big gripes at the twitter board claiming they're not investing in the company, don't seem to use the product much and get paid a lot of money. is he just mad twitter is not embracing his offer, or does he have a point we'll debate that.

later the birdflu spreading to 31 states infecting 27 million chickens and turkeys on farms, egg and poultry prices spiking the stocks impacted. we start off with the countdown. netflix set to kick off the parade in just under 24 hours. the stock is flirting with its lowest levels in two years and it's not the only tech name stru struggling look at the performance of the big names in the market just this month microsoft down 9%. alphabet down more than 8% the high growth, high multiple stocks, sofi, robinhood, carvana dropping double interest rates is this trade just about to completely crumble, dan? specifically we're talking big cap tech are we going to see that shoe drop >> i think you have to differentiate between a company like netflix, get tech earnings

off. obviously a pandemic winner, earnings and sales expected to be flattish. really the question is do you want to value this company on next year's earnings and sales growth this early in 2022? and myguess is not i think a lot of investors are waiting for one other shoe to drop if you're thinking of this really giving the tone for mega cap tech earnings, i'm not sure netflix is going to do it. i think we'll have to wait a week or two until we get into the microsoft, the apple, the google and the amazon. where expectations are much higher look at how those stocks are trading relative to netflix which is down 44% on the year already. >> karen, which one, in your view, is the barometer for big cap tech i understand they're different companies with different business models, different pressures buffeting them but still, which one >> i think probably microsoft. i think because it's the most -- it's business and it's personal.

it's had an extraordinary run. they've been a pandemic winner, but i don't see them as a reopen loser. and it's a quality company it should trade at a high premium. but is it enough i think that will sort of be a major tell to me the amazon a separate animal and together i would probably have meta and that i see as a little bit of a different play >> still, tim, some people are saying perhaps the expectations for netflix still too high the first one out of the gate that will set the tone for trading ahead of the earnings reports and so i'm wondering where you stand since you are a fairly recent -- you bought after disastrous outlook given last quarter >> i think netflix exists in a

very different sentiment sphere and certainly very different place on the chart and the valuation front than microsoft and apple. while i don't think netflix will knock the cover off the ball, they certainly have it 1 to 2 million subs, expectations were 25 million in subs for all '22 that's not going to happen to the extent the first quarter and the guide was what destroyed this company, i think you have expectations more or less in line and i think you've lapsed comp next week will be a very important week for the market. the companies that would keep me up at night, frankly, are apple and microsoft. they are trading at perception and i think those are the ones that at some point have terribly difficult comps. it should be noted today we saw

semiconductors rally almost 2% they've been down 16.5% in 13 days to the interday lows. if you think we've actually gone to peak inflation, there's a big debate about that. maybe we'll talk about food getting higher you've revalued. i don't expect a great outlook for 2q from all the big boys but i think you've priced a lot in >> there's a headline that i read, guy, that concerned me regarding apple and that was one coming out of china, the biggest decline in consumer spending since early in the pandemic. and that makes you wonder about a lot of the companies that have heavy presence in china, saw china as a growth engine and now could see china as one of the biggest headwinds during this quarter. >> no question that's been a huge growth for apple and apple seems to be the stock people are going to and this flight to equality when the market does sell off it's interesting showing a

little weakness recently apple is the most fascinating out of all of them the regard of the level traded and the huge interday bounce i think on march 14 another run towards that 182 level giving it up now we talked about taiwan's semilast week. we'll see if that taiwan semi report has any bearing netflix, as we said, cut in half this $2.90 is a guide down from, i think, $3.50 two numbers i'm looking for i think the stock gets crushed if it doesn't hit it $3 eps, $8 billion in revenue anything short of that and the stock adds another 10% >> where should we stand, dan, when it comes to big cap technology in this inflationary rising rate environment at this point given some of the declines we've already seen >> it's really interesting in q1 of 2021 when rates started going higher right off historical

lows the hardest hit group was mega cap tech the qqq, the underperformance there. apple was down 20% from then peak or so and that playbook, the recession playbook, the high inflation playbook changed at some point and i think they have said it in a way it's just a lot of money hiding out in these massive top five or six names when you think about the destruction in high valuation tech, in recent ipos, in spacs over the last year and that's why it likely, to me, is the final shoe to drop if you do have a microsoft that's meant to be like, okay, we've all said it deserves that premium multiple apple is moving more and more so you'll reward those revenues if they are down the next week or two for q2, it's lights out i think that's the kind of final shoe to drop and you will see an s&p down 20% and how we come out

of that will take some time. we are used to the fed saving the day and they're telling us they can't do that not for the next six to nine months. maybe unless they do a dovish pivot. i don't know if the market is set up for that which they could well do. we had comments from the fed james bullard who has been a proponent of 50 basis points and a single hike for a very long time but something to the effect of i can't rule out a 75 basis point hike he can't rule it out. it is even a little glimmer in his eye right now, guy, is interesting. >> he's been pretty steadfast since november maybe even before that in terms of his hawkish view. number two, to answer the question about if the fed were to pivot and be more dovish for

whatever reason whether a market sell-off or economic data that comes in really soft, i think that would be bullish, knee jerk for the market i think bearish long term. i think they've put themselves in a position where they have to fight inflation. i think that's bearish if they acquiesce to the whims of the market longer term that would be bearish for the market. that's a setup i see right now we'll see if it plays out. we all know this the market's pricing cuts the second half of 2023. some people think that's happening anyway >> right the market is pricing a recession, many people are pricing a recession in 2023 as well let's get more details on what st. louis fed bullard said steve liesman. hey there. interesting headlines. >> reporter: for sure. this is an event i was

moderating but i think, melissa, i'm struck by how kind of cool bullard is about all of this. he says we need to do 50s at almost every meeting, bring the rate up to neutral and see how things are going might do a 75 but he wouldn't rule that out. how cool he is about the impact on the economy i must have asked him eight different ways to sunday about whether all of this would cause a recession. he says quite the opposite he believes the unemployment rate would continue to decline he believes the economy will continue to grow above potential, some of the clearing from inflation will happen naturally. the most important is inflation expectation. he thinks you can have a hot economy and have the fed going up very quickly to neutral he used the 1994 example when the fed raised 300 basis points in a very short period of time

in about a year and launched one of the best periods of macroeconomic performance in the history of the country >> so what is his case of the rate hike path which is the backdrop for him above trend growth >> reporter: do you know what a fernicular is? >> i do, actually. >> reporter: that's his base case >> really steep. >> reporter: like this really steep he wants to get to 3.50 by the end of the year, 325 basis points, in addition to balance sheet reduction. that's above where the average fed person is by about, i don't know, call it 100 basis points depending on where you put the average. he has another four quarter hikes. he may not get that from the fed or from other committee members and let's be clear that he's been pushing this and he's moved the committee with him but not

as far as he's been willing to go he thinks the fed is behind the curve and points this out, which i'm sure a lot of the members of your parl are aware. a two year, 280 on the ten ear so it's there. he thinks that the fed doesn't have as far to go in terms of pushing the market as it has to raise the funds rate to meet what the market is priced in >> karen i think you had a question for steve >> yes, i do hi, steve. thanks for being on. i think we agree the fed should have continued on their path in 2018 bowing to the mark was maybe a mistake. do you think that now they have sort of the fortitude, for lack of a better word, to stay with the path that they're on even if the market doesn't react well? >> reporter: it's a great question i would say they have fortitude

to 2.00 to 2.25. whether there's fortitude above that will depend on all the things you lay out there which is how the market reacts it is different from the fed to this panel what would cause to you cringe and hide under your desk is not the same thing that would cause powell to do the same. what he would be concerned about would be market functioning, market clearing. is it gapping down, liquidity in the market those would the things that would concern the federal reserve whereas over time a 5%, 10%, 15% decline in the market -- you can throw things at me now if you'd like -- would not concern the fed depending on how we get there >> 5%, 10%, or 15% decline, okay if we could maybe we would, steve. thank you, steve, for bringing us those headlines >> reporter: you all know where i live >> our next guest sees the market grinding higher

julian emanuel joins us here at the nasdaq julian, it's great to see you in person it's been too long >> who says you can't ever go home again it is so great to be with you and dan and the team thank you. >> what do you think were you nodding your head when you were talking about the notion the market has done a lot of the work in terms of tightening if bullard had his way and we had 3.25% by the end of the year additional tightening, what do you think we would do? >> we have to understand the context of bullard himself he has been consistently, and i think part of his remitt is to guide the rest of the fed to that more hawkish stance and the market itself. and by that standard he's done an amazing job if you think about when those commits hit in the last 15 minutes or so of the day, what happened stocks loved it because they love the fact that, as steve pointed out, the comment is it's in the price already the market gets it >> but is it in the economy?

that's a reason why participants are trying to figure out what is the pace of the slow down? i get it bond investors moved and now when is it going to hit the economy? >> if you look at it and you think about a year like 1994, which is a lot of the comparison, and actually the last year, the only year in the last 40 where both stocks and bonds were down for the whole year as they are sitting here in mid-april, is that the market just sort of digested it and there was a lot of sideways chop, a lot of bearishness at the end of the day earnings carried the day, and that's what we see when we think of ''22 and '23 because we don't think there will be a recession. >> tim has a question. >> julian, welcome back. does the market with a forward p/e multiple that hasn't necessarily priced in policy accommodation and the tightening that i think and the extreme

pace bullard just talked about, that's what should concern folks. it's not that the market hasn't done a lot of work already it's not that we all don't believe the fed needs to be aggressive the question is dan referred to the economy. i'm not sure we've heard from companies in an environment where rates are 125 basis points higher and i don't think stocks are priced that. >> i would agree with that, tim, and part of what has kept people on the back foot coming into the start of the earnings season is this idea we're going to get negative commentary. we're going to get downward revisions. and we might but our point of view is from a stock market perspective with lots of delevering going on, 15%, essentially a 30-year low that's in the price. now as far as the economy is concerned, again, to us it is a question of can you manage through what's already in the price from an asset market perspective?

and our view is as difficult as the external circumstances have been abroad and certainly slowing down in china now, the u.s. consumer is still intact. >> but in terms of things being priced in in the negative commentary, do you think companies will actually stick by guidance when they can easily say we have inflationary pressures, we have question marks about markets around the world because of ukraine, russia and because of what's going on in china it feels to me it's the perfect opportunity for companies to give negative guidance and to cause earnings to come down. >> so i think there has been an element of caution but, in fact, part of the story that's been remarkable is that margins on balance haven't contracted because the pricing power has been there and, again, it comes down to the consumer could pricing power erode? it could but you're speculating that's going to happen and from that point of view, look, are

you going to get a peak commodity price, peak inflation as we think may be appening, you're not going to hear that from companies they don't need to take that risk guidance wise but, on the other hand, we don't think they're going to be very, very cautionary because they really haven't seen the evidence concretely themselves. >> julian, good to see you in person guy adami, what do you think i feel i know what you think that's a terrible thing to say but in terms of the guidance this season and whether or not they have pricing power. a lot of companies have already instituted a round of price hikes on consumers for various other reasons prior to this. >> you do know what i think. margins will be impacted tim and dan said it. the bond market might have priced this in you go back to march, april 2020, obviously the bond market moved extraordinarily quickly but the stock market rallied the

next 18 months you could say the bond market moves quickly and the stock market lagged. and then the question is what's the right multiple in a higher interest rat i don't think it's 21 or 22 but closer to 18 $230 of earnings, we can figure out where the s&p should be. >> karen, do you think the consumer is as strong as everybody wants to give it credit for >> i think -- i mean, if you listen to brian moynihan on the bank of america call, yes. he would even characterize it as stronger than we think, the average balances and very low credit and the consumer spending i think that could be the upside surprise the consumer is very much there ready to spend. coming up, going gold. is this where you should park your money

elon musk calling out twitter's board of directors saying they don't even have any skin in the game do his gripes hold water we'll break that down. if you love "fast" we have a treat, a special bonus hour mem.asrnp at 6:00 p. ete ti wealth is shutting down the office for mike's retirement party. worth is giving the employee who spent half his life withe party of a lif. ♪ ♪ wealth is watching your business grow. worth is watching your employees grow with it. ♪ ♪

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welcome back to "fast money. gold shining bright as it hits the highest level topping $2,000 an ounce the gdx hitting the highest level since 2020 tim, do you think there's more room here? >> what is good is gold. there's a lot more room. some of the miners in the gdx also mine copper if you look at the medium term, i think -- and i mean short to medium term at a minimum number and then end of the decade a deficit in copper. i think it bodes very well i say this all the time. i think mining companies have never been run better. i think they've been run for equity shareholders. while the gold underline continues to go higher, copper has been sideways though near record highs, it's an incredible environment for gold miners. this has been happening with the dollar just 2% from 19-year

highs, 2% from 19-year highs on the dollar the dollar is soaring and gold is obviously going along with it i think people misunderstood gold's lack of followthrough in the early stages of this inflation followthrough. i think gold looks as good as gold has in a long time. >> it's not supposed to do that, gold and dollar in the same direction. >> correct >> we can't leave behind silver, guy, the highest level in more than a month as well >> and names like silver weight and pan american, obviously those are levered to the price it's lagged. the best thing that happened to sill ver was the reddit crowd ad that became the worst thing. i'll say this, new mining is trading like gold should be significantly higher, continues to make new all-time highs the gdx has lagged reports on the 22nd and i think a lot of runway for this name.

>> meantime let's get to another twist in the battle for twitter. private equity group appollo, could be in debt or equity and could be in support of elon musk or perhaps another bidder, so the plot thickens. elon musk is not backing down. the tesla ceo now calling out the board directly over the weekend pointing out several issues he has. let's bring in sydney finkelstein to walk us through some of musk's concerns. good to have you with us >> thanks, good to be on >> i want to ask you about some of the complaints and whether or not this is something we should be concerned about you indicated boards are in general too cozy the fact the twitter board, they don't use the product much, if at all, they get paid a lot of money. and they don't have stock. are these issues to be concerned with how common are these practices >> so, yes, they are issues

you'd like your board members to have their own personal skin in the game using the company's product. that kind of makes sense twitter is a low barrier to use. i will say a bunch of board members are very wealthy on their own from other work they've done so the mystery is why none of that wealth is going into twitter's stock. >> do you think that the twitter board is conflicted because they are getting paid -- you mentioned they're wealthy already but the fact they can collect a fairly fat paycheck for sitting on the board hinders them from being objective in evaluating any sort of bid >> people join boards of directors for lots of reasons. one is to gain social cache and prestige, one is to network with important people in the business community and, yes, for some people supple menting their income is part of it, but when you look at board members here

they're doing pretty well. i know elon musk has said they're getting a lot of money and maybe it's a lot of money for an average person, when you're the co-ceo of salesforce that can't be a lot of money >> hi, it's karen. thanks for being on. given elon's flip-flop on taking a seat and then not, his own flip-flop on tesla, you know, fully funded or funding secured, do you think the board is doing the right thing by, at the moment, putting the pill in, which they did, and seemingly at the moment to just say no? >> well, you know, poison pill has a couple of purposes one, of course, makes it tougher for an acquirer to take over the company and the second thing it gives you kind of a different leverage point with that acquire so that you're in a position to negotiate with them and maybe

get them to pay more i have no idea if that's in process right now or not but elon musk has offered a price, i think $54 and change. it's higher than the price today and probably was almost certainly a lot higher than he paid to get his stock and what the stock was a while ago. for a company that's not really making much money it sounds like something they should be considering seriously. >> sydney, it's great to speak with you thanks for your perspective. we appreciate it >> my pleasure >> dan >> listen, we talked about this on thursday afternoon before the long week. we knew musk would be tweeting all weekend, and a lot of what he says about the board is correct. it's a cozy situation. they're not there for the money. they're not invested they don't use the product it's a weak board. that being said they have a weak management that don't really have a plan. when you look at the way some of their competitors are monetizing in the way snap, which has a $53

billion value, this at $36 billion, you would rather say, all right, one has a plan and they're doing this, moving forward. at the end of the day i think shareholders of twitter might be okay i said i thought on thursday afternoon, a bit of a sideshow if he sells the stock will fill in the gap back to $40 now you have other private equities showing interest there could be some sort of strategic bid that comes in or something with p/e and it doesn't have to be with musk. >> it has to be a higher bid than what elon musk has ordered for the board to entertain the offer. tim, what do you think at this point? >> i think the focus on the board is kind of silly the board is not the problem the management is the problem. the fact the company has not been able to innovate, has not been able to monetize, but the fact i think there are a handful of people that recognize whatever we're going to measure intrinsic value on this is a company that's underperforming that's the story and i'll go back again to a

period in which the analyst community universally upgraded the company because the company told you they had a way to double revenue and get to 310 maus by '23. either something has been completely derailed in terms of execution on management, and i think it has, is the board really responsible for this? i don't think so. >> doesn't it have a role, though if the company is underperforming isn't that the role of the board to step in and say, hey, perag, or whoever is ceo at the moment, we're speaking on behalf of shareholders because we have a fiduciary duty, guy. >> i'm sure they've had those conversations and to tim's point i don't need the board members necessarily using twitter or tweeting i'm sure people are not driving tractors on the week, or maybe i'm wrong. i don't think that's a prerequisite to tim's point it's about the company's management they're underperform i'll tell you this about the

stock and pretty steadfast this $45-$55 range is working i do think we will see $55 before we see $45. >> karen, does muss having a point about boards isn't it partially the responsibility of the board to make sure whatever the plan is being executed for the good of the company to show growth in the company >> yes indirect to me the most important job is to hire and fire the ceo so they've done that and then the second most important job of the board is a situation just like this how do they maximize value for the shareholders so i guess the sort of gripes about what the board has been doing because they've been sort of management issues for a while. what's sort of interesting to me jack seemingly, i don't know, did he turn against the board? he's going off the board, right? that's sort of interesting i wonder if he would team up

with elon to buy it. i don't know just a thought >> this thing is not done on 4/20 elon said he would take his ball and go home. we're a couple days away from that i suspect the longer elon can stay in the game the greater the likelihood he can marshall other large shareholders, private equity there was a lot of concern if he could buy this or not. he'd have to lever his tesla shares or whatever he probably stays in the game for longer guy is probably right because if there is one other bidder that comes in or gives elon a little support it's going to get to that $54 number because it has to be a higher offer >> 4/20 is when tesla. karen, does this scenario look interesting to you at this

point? >> i mean, i was thinking more about it over the weekend. i think guy's point about something bullish happens before something bearish. i think, you know, we haven't seen financing it would be easy for him if he did have financing to show us the financing. it's odd the richest person in the world is seen by the arbitrage community as kind of flakey and you can't really count on them. that is sort of telling to me. given the down side if he says, i'm not so excited about it. >> schwab shares getting shellacked a dive into the options pit to see the action >> announcer: get your trades to go with the "fast money" podcast. catch us anytime anywhere. follow today on your favorite podcasting app we're back right after this.

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welcome back be to "fast money. we have a broker buzz kill check out schwab shares sinking more than 9% that missed analyst

targets. legacy brokers under some pressure as they lower or eliminate fees to compete with the likes of robinhood guy, nobody is getting it easy these days in this world >> no. and you hit it they missed on every metric imaginable, on revenue, and other metrics that are equally important they just whiffed on this stock had a huge move up to $97. it sold off significantly but it still feels like there's room to the down side. i wantsummer's low $68 and that would make sense in terms of where it's trading on valuation right now. >> robinhood is forcing this great change and nobody is benefiting from it in the end, tim. >> yeah, it's funny to hear robinhood mentioned as they've been this aggressive pursuer and they can't get out of their own way. i think this is a market dynamic and a wealth effect dynamic,

schwab customers are feeling it from the housing market i believe is weaker at least for a lot of these folks in real time than it may be in the long term. i think the stock market is something else to me the name you want to be in in the space that gets you into the brokerage community across into pure wealth management is morgan stanley and morgan stanley has underperformed the investment banking group, at least goldman sachs. they are well positioned and at some point could do a strategic acquisition in the different demographic whether it's going to be robinhood or not is another story altogether i would rather be driving with morgan stanley leading the way here they are the class of the operation. >> ibm on deck to report results tomorrow the legacy tech giant faring better than the broader tech space down 5% on the year. options traders are betting that outperformance might not last much longer. mike

>> so on ibm we saw two times the daily options. the options market is implying the stock could move 5% after they report earnings in line with the average over the last eight quarters now as you pointed out bearish bets edged out, the purchase of 300 of the october 125 putts at nearly $1,000 an outlay of $300,000 in premium. the buyer of those is betting that ibm could retest from last november >> mike, thanks for that dan, what do you make of ibm here >> sales have been declining for years and earnings have been declining and a lot of calls to break up the company, management change, reorganization last quarter they put up a quarter people liked the stock traded really well and it's come back in with the market here. relative to the broader tech space is good. is it tech is it innovation i think expectations are high

here if there's any disappointment after last quarter's guide, the stock is going where those put buyers are >> be sure to tune in to the full show. we are back on friday. coming up, the ev maker going downhill is a turnaround in store an inside look at one of the company's plans for the first time since going public. the details next plus, a wave of bird flu spreading through the poultry industry could spell even more trouble for thsulyhae pp cin

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critics agree, the bad guys are good. into strategies you making me blush. it has a ninety six percent on rotten tomatoes. jackpot! and stands out from the pack. where'd you learn to do that? mostly youtube. welcome back to "fast money. rivlan shares down 51% from its november 2021 ipo. the company is trying to change the narrative opening its illinois factory doors to reporters for the first time since going public phil lebeau joins us with more phil >> reporter: another rough day for rivian when do we have confidence that the supply chain and the production problems are behind them, that they finally have things going in the right

direction and are consistently increasing production. we did go to the plant in normal, illinois, in central illinois, where they have three assembly lines going the electric pickup truck, the electric suv and, yes, we did see the electric delivery vans for amazon look at their production it has steadily increased even though they have a guidance of 25,000 vehicles for 2022 which is well below what people were previously expecting them to build. when we talked to the ceo he believes that most of the challenges they're encountering they have eliminated them. >> it's been challenging from a supply chain point of view with this environment, but we're seeing daily records being set within our plant but really that's driven by how many components we can get particularly in the semiconductor space. a lot of really good progress happening there and we're excited for what's in front of

us >> reporter: here is the challenge for rivian the fact of the matter is they are not on the board in the eyes of investors when it comes to evs in the u.s they just aren't it's tesla's market and you have some other players there yes, the ev sales are going to be increasing to more than 2 million by 2025 and r.j. says they are going to have a decent size of the market, a decent chunk of the market, he believes, as they continue to ramp up production and, by the way, have the r2 small suv they plan to roll out once their plant in georgia is up and running by 2024, early '25 keep in mind they have 83,000 reservations, so they do have people, more demand than supply at this point. if you place an order today you're not getting it until the end of 2023. if you look at rivian, the challenge for all of these guys, getting that backlog into production and getting the

vehicles delivered and, melissa, one of the things we're noticing with all of the ev startups, they are encountering a lot of the same problems that tesla encountered way back when when it was a much smaller company and people said, boy, can tesla ever ramp up? nobody talks about that anymore with tesla i remember when they had one model and it was challenging quarter by quarter that is what rivian is going through. >> tesla faced the challenge of just keeping the company afloat, phil, in terms of capital. a problem that rivian does not have you wonder what exactly the real bottleneck is in production if capital is not the issue is it simply supply chain? >> reporter: semiconductors right now. mainly semiconductors. r.j. is blunt about saying we are increasing our production. so is everybody else but make no mistake the entire auto industry is semiconductor constrained at least into next year and that message is finally

getting through to investors they're finally realizing the flood of vehicles that everybody thought was coming in '22 is not coming it's not going to come until we have more foundries, building more chips, and the auto industry a greater allocation of semiconductors >> right phil, thanks phil lebeau. if it's mostly semiconductors, the path to 25,000 vehicles by the end of the year from 2,500 in q1 seems like something out of their own control, guy. >> rivian is a $33 billion company, $6 billion in revenue ford by comparison is a $60 billion company that does $160 billion. so a couple things are true. rivian is still too expensive on price to sales and ford is still too cheap. i think both those things will continue to play out, meaning i think ford should go higher and rivian lower >> that said mel made the best point, they don't have the

capital concerns like tesla did ten years ago. they have $18 billion in cash thank you to investment bankers who brought it public and don't have a lot of debt they're expected to lose $5 billion in net income and that's supposed to decline over time. i think the public market at some point will be able to give them a little leeway especially if their burn is less and they were to hit the 25,000 cars. amazon is the wild card because they would always step up the orders which would give the optics of the business a better look in my opinion coming up, a massive bird flu outbreak rocking the poultry industry and the infection could have serious impact on the consumer we have the details next

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get ready for a bonus hour of "fast money" at the top of the hour growth stocks and earnings, even taking some of your questions again, 6:00 eastern time stay tuned meantime a massive wave of bird flu is spreading through the poultry industry nearly 27 million chickens and turkeys infected and more than 30 states reported cases the outbreak sent egg prices soaring. the cdc says this is a low risk

to the public. is this just another blow to the supply change and to consumer budgets? let's bring in the ceo and founder of partners for production agriculture joe, great to have you with us >> thanks for having me this afternoon. >> anybody who has gone shopping knows all food price have is gone up but egg prices in particular have skyrocketed. can you give us some perspective on when there could be relief in sight? >> sure. and i think you've underpinned this properly there's some 325 million laying hens in the united states of which about 20 million had been affected and so you get a solid 6% reduction in supply and just kind of the merits of supply and demand economics have pushed those prices higher. it came at a time frame right in front of easter. that's a huge component. we're starting to see that start to back off a little bit from $3 a dozen wholesale down to $2.75 to $2.50 or so we'll probably stabilize in here somewhere, though. i think you've seen the highest prices for the egg side.

>> so we hit peak inflation on the egg front. i'm wondering in terms of prices going higher or staying higher how sticky the high prices are what is the cycle for egg laying hens how quickly can you replace the ones that have been culled >> it's not just been the laying hens it's the replacements that would have come in naturally have been negatively impacted. we're probably into a little bit after longer cycle you bring up a good point about the stickiness of the prices just in this inflationary environment. we're not going back to whatever the we thought was normal. normal will be at a much higher level than what it was and it's not just eggs you have turkey meat trading $5 a pound, chicken breast at $3 a pound. in walmart, $5 a gallon for milk the price of all agricultural will be higher input prices moves significantly higher corn trading at $8 a bushel as

we speak. >> an environment all proteins across the board are going higher, is there more room for egg prices to even float higher because, i mean, to trade -- the trading down effect, because this is oftentimes a low-cost source of protein for people watching their budget, as long as it remains lower than rising beef prices or chicken prices, could we still see higher prices in eggs? >> probably not. i think we've reached a peak you bring up an incredibly good point. eggs represent probably the best value in protein, incredibly digestible, economic, even $3 a dozen for eggs if you have four of them, that's $1 per meal. it's tough to get too much more economical than what egg protein provides >> joe, great to have you on thank you for giving us perspective on this problem. check out rising ag prices

agricultural commodities, corn, soy soybean, rough rice. is everything that consumes these things, other animals or humans, and that's all bad for consumers' pocketbooks, tim. >> well, look at a company like tyson foods which is essentially near all-time highs up 21%, has outperformed and they have a lot of their feed cost at least hedged out through fiscal 3 and fiscal 4 and then they start to run into problems. if you look at the broader meat space tyson very well positioned, trading very well and they have been able to pass these prices on. we still don't know to what extent there is sensitivity where the consumer will start to push back on these prices. as we say the best thing for higher prices is higher prices and, yes, there are dynamics that will change this longer term but corn prices will come down and that is something that is a tail wind >> karen, good or bad for the grocery businesses of a target

or a wal-mart, higher food prices >> that's a great question i would think it's good for walmart as prices in general go up, the customers, the consumer is really getting squeezed and walmart is about the best bet they can make on finding the best prices on just about everything for walmart i think it's good news >> all right it is time for the final trades. let's go around the horn for monday night tim seymour? >> i'll go back to gold and it has underperformed look at it relative to the move higher back in 2020. i think gdx very well run and i love the exposure to copper. >> karen finerman? >> going into big tech earnings, the place i want to be and the place i do have the biggest is alphabet we haven't even heard much lately about the stock split i think we'll see excitement around that when it happens early july i like alphabet as a value stock

right here >> guy >> i'm looking forward to seeing you in the next hour but psx has been a monster stay with it into earnings >> dan >> karen's alphabet looks like it's holding on for dear life. i like guy's ford. look at that thing as we chase that move from january >> all right that does it for us this hour. do not go anywhere we have got a special bonus edition of "fast money" starts edition of "fast money" starts right after this quick break what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

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the 7 week report first quarter reports in tech, health care staples, energy and airlines it's been a rough start to the year for the major averages. nasdaq down over 14% the s&p do