the 7 week report first quarter reports in tech, health care staples, energy and airlines it's been a rough start to the year for the major averages. nasdaq down over 14% the s&p down 7

dow down nearly 5% will earning season kick start a reboinds or jump start a screen sell off we'll answer your questions tonight. stocks like twitter, deere and tesla. we'll check with the traders to see where they stand let's dive in tonight and begin with technology. netflix is on the clock. netflix is close to two year lows in over the last six months check out the rest of the fang give us your run down and whether or not the expectations are too high here. >> that last quarter, the guide down was terrific. in terms of net ads, the miss was catastrophic and the stock

paid for it's been cut in half to your point. the two numbers i'm looking for in terms of eps has got to be $3 or better and 8 billion in revenue. we can talk about net ads and new ads. for me, they better do better than the guide down. with the stock cut in half, quarters but it's not the way you play this is wait and see what they say and buy it if it sells off. netflix traded lower in 15 earnings report. you thought netflix was a buy the last time it traded down >> yeah. i bought it a little below 400 which is a long way up from here already. it's interesting for years and years, netflix

wasn't anything i could look at. it was only after it broke the last quarter that it started to be in range i can think about it i am intrigued by it i still think they have some leverage to pull i understand the sentiment that after that earnings release, but remember, they are not very good at predicting their own subscriber growth. we have seen them do a bunch of just be way off the mark. i think netflix would be the last one that they would cut one other question mark, bill akron bought a lot of stock at about 390. i'm interesting to see if he's

out there buying more. i'm long going in. it's not a very big position i'm sort of -- i don't know. i'm more optimistic than the street is ant bout this one. >> all right, let's get to mark and see where he stands on it. in terms of where expectations are, do you think they hit the mark in first quarter for subscribers and more importantly, their outlook for june do you think they stick by the two and a half million which is the forecast right now >> i think these are the two most important matters out there. the stock trades on and off based on some numbers. i think the number is probably ballpark right the content slate turned out to be strong after they gave their guidance things like "inventing anna" did better than most people thought. it could be a little rich but two and a half million again on the street, that's probably

ballpark right the bigger issue is netflix unless they surprise you, it's kind of gone x premium growth. you nused to be able to could want on a business that can grow now it will grow mid teens, maybe high teens but largely driven by our crew i think it's kind of in the trade range for the foreseeable future >> how do you forsee potential weakness that may not be accounted for by the street that should be their engines of growth their the russia either they suspended operations there. that's up from the previous quarter. how do you see the inflation issue when it comes to playing out netflix growth

>> i think it will shake out but it's probably not going to happen this year it will be a few years out the real issue for netflix in terms of generating where did my 25 million subs go, that's for all the bulls are looking out for. i think the challenge was climbing the hills in asia it's a big region. we did survey work we found it in japan that's one market i know it only reached 14% penetration after five years in western europe and north america and latin america. you're entering a market where you need to have big sub growth where you have a lot of local compe competition. i think it makes it harder to grow in the way that we wanted in the past. it brings us back to the stock and trading range. 15 bucks in earnings next year the market will put a 20 to 30 year multiple on that. it's an interesting trade to the long end

we're not going to get open ended multiples we had before. this is like price line 7 years ago. the valuation range gets a lot narrower >> mark, it's tim. you make me want to jump out a window on this the story on netflix was really saturation in north america. that actually they were d developing localized content they were able to meet an audience in india and asia pac pacific. if you're telling me they are questioning the ability to have that, shouldn't we be questioning the high teens growth number. i'm with you there i think we totally reset expectations but i'm very concerned on your outlook for their foreign growth >> well, i think that's the issue. i think that's where my 25 million subs went. i think netflix itself wasn't sure they had big number whence they launched in india. they talked about getting to 100 million subs they are lowering prices in india. you don't lower prices if you

got a great demand problem like you've got in other parts of the world. it's a lot of local entrenched competition. i was struck by our japan survey results. i know these are different countr countries. it's hard to gain the sub growth they did netflix is a phenomenal stock, service, et cetera, et cetera. did well in western europe the next growth has got to come from asia. i think it's harder for them to do that. i hope i'm surprised i hope they blow it out. if they start getting into an ad supported business model, that may be the real net growth curve initiative i know whether they will do that or not yet >> when you take a look across tech and big cap tech, which stock is a barometer for this sector i don't know if they let do you do that but just taking a broader look at what one report actually had an impact on your

universe >> i think the companies i covered. this answer will not surprise you. there's two names i've covered that had the broadest reach. amazon and google. amazon will give you a read and the health of the enterprise very few companies can do that by the way, that growth has recently reaccelerated i think the trends are in tact that's going to be the great read through to the rest of the space. we got problems in amazon, we got problems in a lot of places. >> mark, thanks frs your take. appreciate it. >> it just lost touch with reality and what we had is a correction the answer is in the work.

now we're a bit more correct as far as where valuations need to be what i think is interesting is what businesses are actually protected and what businesses are going to have troubles with regulations. i think that's the risk of big cap tech in that regard, netflix is better positioned than most of them >> valuations are more correct, guy. for netflix in particular, what stood out to me in mark's sk interview was 300. you could be long at 300 that looks about right to him. >> sometimes companies grow into their valuation the wrong way. the stock goes lower and grows in that way. i think that's what's happening here it hasn't traded well since earnings i'm sure karen and tim would

agree, julie as well google add 18.5, 19 times next year's number. it's too cheap in my opinion you've seen google come out with some ridiculous quarters, meaning good quarters where they go up 10, 12% post earnings. i think the set is up there for google >> karen, i know you're hoping for that you mentioned the stock split in the last hour of "fast money". i'm wondering what you think there is left to do with the stock split since it was announced. >> i think a lot it's lower than where it was when they announced that great quarter and where they announced the stock split. i think that quarter will be great for some of the reasons that guy is saying but remember travel is really important to them and we've heard from the airlines how hot travel is and so i think we'll see a nice boost there and the other thing is the stock buy back especially

with inflation meaning your cash is worth less and less i hope you're biuying aggressively then there's the wild card of how big will retail be in google post-stock split they are sort of prohibited now. there's no baby google to buy. one lot of option would be expensive for a lot of retail. i mean, i feel like you have an outstanding sense of where the retail investor is do you think that this will be one as interesting to the retail investor as a tesla? >> i'm not sure about that only because we haven't seen the as astronomical moves as we have. i don't know if google captures the imagination of the amc, gamestop crowd they love options. they're willing to trade options in almost anything we'll see on that front in

particular as opposed to the stock. tim, where do you stand in terms of your barometer? >> it comes back to me. these companies are not going away overnight coming up, are the airlines really to fliy to pre-pandemic levels take a look at the dow jones transportation average down 10% so far in april. is it time to lit the brakes in the transport. we're taking a closer look you're watching a special edition of "fast money" live in

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supersonic wifi only from us... xfinity. welcome back to this special edition of "fast money". united, american and alaska air just out with news that maybe a tail wind for the airlines they said the mask man date is invalidating it. the cdc doesn't have the authority to enforce this. that basically put the biden adminia administration on watch. they had to come up with a decision do we say we will appeal this. do we say the doj sdtill believe the mask mandate is in effect. we're not enforcing it but we're assessing our options.

here is what the statement says from the white house the agencies are reviewing the decision and assessing potential next steps in the meantime, today's court decision means cdc public transportation masking order is not in effect at this time therefore, tsa will not enforce its security directives and emergency amendment requiring mask use on public transportation and hubs at this time they recommend people wear masks in indoor transportation set settings maybe by tomorrow we'll have clarity in terms of what this means. i bet there's a lot of people in airports, on arm wirplanes who e saying what will you do. hopefully we will get clarity. i talked to an airline executive who said that doesn't help us a lot. is it in effect or not and not at this time stuff one way or another make a decision we're waiting to find out like everybody else what is the final decision going to be in terms of are they appealing this decision or just

drop it all together >> do you have a sense whether airline execs think having no mask mandate is a help that people will be more willing to fly and take flights if there are no masks required or maybe people won't want to fly if there are masks required >> melissa, i'm not sure how much of a benefit it would be at this point anything you do to make it a more comfortable experience will be welcome with people we're no doubt will be talking about this where the three airline executive who is have earnings this week we're talking about united on wednesday and then on thursday you hear from american and alaska all of the airlines have come out and said, look, if you don't have to wear it in a restaurant, at the library, if you don't have to wear it almost anywhere else in the united states why are you wearing it in an airplane or the plane. they have the data to back up their belief that the planes are as safe as can be when you have the hep filtration systems and another other factors that are part of what they believes make

it a safe environment. they have calls for the masks to come off for some time we talk to ed last week at delta. he said that believe it should come down. i think hopefully from the dot and the doj within the next 24 hours. >> phils, thanks for that. good news from delta what are you watching in terms of which airlines and what metrics? >> i think what is important to keep in mind is we're comparing to 2019 and every one is focused on whether or not corporate travel will return it's about 70, 75% to normal that includes a will the of good

freight. other capacity is down once i cater more to leisure travel particularly with this summer and the mask lifted i would be more inclined for a business like alaska which really has do i undea better lo structure. delta is the best run och majors and trades at not that much of a

premium to an american or united that's your trade right there. it's delta over the other two. airlines are some of the great trading stocks in market they failed here slightly testing the upper end of this. i don't think for long i think they will continue to break out and many have done a decent job hedging out some of these. >> guy, which would you trade? >> is this a would you rather at 6:00 are we playing this game >> i'm not giving you a choice it's open ended. i don't know what you characterize it. >> delta airlines. dal. tim just alluding to it. the quarter they put up was fantastic. you're looking at numbers in some metrics were pre-pandemic levels it was a $62 stock in january of

2020 coming up, we're checking up on the health care stocks. jb hunt up a little over a mers after earnings tonight jim cramer shares his thoughts that's just ahead.

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hitting a 13-year high as they struggle to find their footing. the stock volatile after reporting a top and bottom line beat with mixed signals. where could the stocks be headed jim cramer weighing in on the state of the freight industry. >> lots of people have seen the transports come down, particularly the trucking companies. thinking this has to be the chance why wait until the fed is finish fightening that's a very refreshing view. i've made that mistake many times many my career why is it a mistake?

stocks react to number cuts. every time the fed raises the number cuts will occur and all the freight companies. you would only know this if you traded multiple freight cycles like i have. i think a stock like jb hunt is driven maybe later. maybing the beginning of 2023. we at the charitable trust sold u.p.s. why? when the fed starts tightening, it's a very difficult stock to own. we're very close to uber to uber freight. we who runs uber freight and he

says the fright rates have dropped 25, 30% in some cases. that's in the spot market. it's very good prelude of what happened after long term contracts roll over. how can i get into a business where i know better than anyone else because i've got it from the source that it's coming down and coming down aggressively here is my take. don't be in a hurry. it could end up being a great investment being early makes it into a very bad trade. >> the question is what if you own let's say a u.p.s. as jim specifically singled out or a fedex. karen, you own both. does this concern you that the spot rights have come down >> i think they have not come down

that's one thing that's a really thing. jim is particularly good at that it's not traded at a valuation like this in really long time. really doing a fantastic job of making them a more efficient organization and doing high margin business. fedex has been less good at that fedex has the upside or down side of having a big opportunity of margin improvement because they haven't been run as well as they could have been the valuation there at ten times earnings i feel like at ten times earnings, it's hardly frothy and a lot of sort of bad things are priced in. i'm hanging onto both.

>> jim outlined it pretty well jb hunt is down about 23% from if all time high back in march. i totally get what jim is saying >> if you look at fr transportation, it's been under

pressure there's going to be pressure you know what i say, it's like not all stocks in the sector are the same just like not all my boyfriends are the same. there's some quality names that you can own. a name i would think of is a company called old dominion. they have proper network effects that protect their business. in a soft ir market they can do well it's a durable business. >> i love that sjulie delivers that with a straight face, no smile or nothing not all my boyfriends are the same will it set the tone for health care as we hit the heart of earnings season check out deere touching a new all time high. stay with us

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this is going to be a big week for held care names they all report results. what is next for the sector? let's bring in jared good to see you. j and j, you say it's got something for every one in its different lines of businesses will give you various reads sboosinto other companies. what are you looking for >> j and j does have three core segments in some part it dictates the way

investors look at lhealth care over the short term by way of growth and what's happening with pharmaceuticals and devices. i think of the two segments that investors are focused on, the device and diagnostic business might be the most important. this particular quarter, just given how much we spoken about the recovery trade and procedure volume, medical utilization broadly speaking what they have to say about that not only in the quarter but commentary around how april is doing and forward looking statements with respect to that. >> i'm curious do you have a sense of where the flows are coming from. how does that play into how investors perceive this earnings season is it almost less important but maybe less important because relative to the rest of the market it seems safer? >> yeah, there's so many

different varvariables at play here when we look at what's driving it, i think a lot has been broader industry safety or defensive trade that's being put on by investors that looked at many areas of this sector, pharmaceuticals and managed care come to mind, distributors as well there's probably been a first move or advantage in terms of generalists looking at lhealth care as a safe haven that's probably attractive to specialist to look at it in a more positive light as well. it's probably a combination of both >> 16 times of next year's numbers. it does not get a big cap pharma it's nowhere near what a procter & gamble i say 16 times is too cheap.

what say you >> i think that's probably right. they have done good job of licensing technology probably a little more of that the device business in general, i think will start to trade better once the consumer business is jettison i think all three of those categories deserve higher multiples. they are doing what they can do do inspire investor confidence, getting rid of consumers is helpful. something that spits out mid single digit growth for the company in that category would

also be helpful and potentially get the multiple of that business higher maybe in line peers with the group >> karen, you have a question? >> i do. you touched on the reopen trade. can you tell me how far along we are in betting back to normal? do you still think there's a lot of juice left in that trade? >> it might be more for fa pharmac pharmaceuticals. it looked like when you added up all of the revenue numbers for the vast majority of the sector, they did pretty well in 2020, 2021 not obviously up to their potential. i think a lot of the revenue that was lost in early 2020 due to the pandemic much of that, too me was probably made back over the past 18 months.

there's probably some left but i don't think there's a tremendous amount of juice left the way we talk about a recovery trade for the hotels or airlines or casinos or some of the other travel and leisure segments that are compared to medical devices from a recovery standpoint i think pharma has not gotten enough credit. maybe there's rem conciliation >> jared, thank you. good to see you. >> you bet thank you. >> julia, where do you stand on health care? >> i think health care is an interesting sector for us especially for me as a small and mid cap portfolio manager. i don't have a lot of access to these larger pharmaceutical companies that have the durable business models that i like. i look for at distributors companies on the vet side. those are the types of businesses i like. health care, i agree that health care is a space where

generalists are coming and hiding out >> tim, which stock in earning season will you be focusing on the most >> i just -- i know we spent a lot of time on j and j but i think it's important when you consider the breadth of where they are they will give you 7.5% organic sales growth i think you'll hear j and j talk about a head wind. it's probably going to be 1.ethl have to start hearing from some of these bigger multi nationals especially in the pharma space

>> i'm curious about the aspect and are you focusing on pharma because you think investors aren't thinking about that as much as they do have that head wind or is pharma more susceptible to this? >> i don't think pharma is that much more susceptible. i would say some of the industry companies would be under more pressure when you add in the inflationary price inputs. i think they'll have to talk about that i think it's significant >> coming up, oil closing higher for the day up nearly 15% of the last week. what the move could mean for your money we're taking your questions so tweet us we might just answer you on the air.

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imagine a community where millions share ideas and trade stocks, crypto and beyond. to the moon? in other words... etoro.the power of social investing. welcome back to a special edition of "fast money." you united airline s s is dropping mask man date. masks are also optional now on alaska airline flights julie, i'm kcurious what your thoughts are in terms of whether this will attract more travelers

or deter them. >> i think we all reach add certain point of fatigue with masks and wearing them i think overall it will probably be a positive. it's hard to say over time but the wonderful thing is that these ventilation systems work really well and sanitizing the plane which sounds awesome to me remember how gross those seats could get. i think net we're all beneficiaries of it. i think it will be positive. >> every one laughed at me when i brought clorox wipes on the plane prewill h-pandemic and wi down everything. >> why am i not surprised you were doing that? any way. i don't think this will change that story i really don't i think social security a great headline it's a great headline for our kun tremendous and the world it seals you tells you where we fighting this pandemic people are flying. there's pents up behavior.

they are paying higher prices and they will continue to do that i'll be on plane tomorrow, i expect to not wear the mask. >> karen, does it make you feel any better or more confident about the reopening trade in general? >> it does i don't know that it changes for flying i personally will probably still wear a mask. i think we'll be surprised to the upside in all kinds of businesses very consumer focused ones, mainly things like a live nation and talked about ulta beauty is a big reopen trade even amc has put up giant numbers. >> let's move onto the energy

sector it's up 15% over the past month alone. guy, your final trade on the 5:00 hour of fast money was a stock within the sector. i think there's a lot of room in these names. >> tim >> the character change within the energy space is interesting because oil services under performed energy significantly for sick months of this rally. over the last month they are up about 500 basis points i think there was -- there continues to be news out of the

administration >> julie. >> i don't want to be at the whims of putin and what's happening in europe. energy is a tough place to play. i'd rather have 20 to 30% be 90% markets. i'll take that business. thank you. >> all right coming up, we're going to answer a buchb of your burning questions as we head into the heart of earnings season and right after we wrap up the special edition of "fast money" it's time for the news with shep smith. we wilbeig bk.l rhtac ♪ ♪

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: welcome back time to tackle some viewer questions. kate in georgia. >> my question is regarding deere. i bought deere and after russia invaded ukraine, i continued to add to my position as the stock went down. i still like deere a lot i like farming connecting with innovation and technology opinion it's close to a 52-week high is it okay to add to my position

here thanks bye. >> good question guy, what do you tell kate >> i like what kate is doing i think the all time high recently was 445 it has sold off a bit. into earnings and i think report on may 20th, if i'm not mistaken this trades a t a less than a market multiple. i think the stock continues the grinds higher from here. >> yeah. next up, a question from dan on a stock that's got plenty of people talking >> what's up "fast money" traders. i want to hear your opinion on tesla's bull run and whether or not we he see it climb with insu inflation at an all time here and what looks to be the start of bear market >> tim, what would you tell dan? >> i think the tesla story continues to have a good tail wind from production growth and a case where if you look at the profitability of the company they are continuing to show the

dynamic. i'm as worried about where they sit in the investment profile and the market segment that they sit. it's a high multiple tech name i think there's still pressure on those names i think they arguably weathered the storm well there's been fair amount of good news we have gotten some good production numbers i hate the valuation i've said that for a long time the company has executed by i don't like the valuation >> julie, what do you think? the thing with tesla and the real challenge is they only have a part-time ceo which is a shame. he also seems to want to run twitter. that's also pretty challenging i think the company has done a lot for the green power, green energy and all of that at the end of the day they are still bending metal. i drive a tesla. i can never see this valuation making sense >> all right next up a question from omar in new york sd >> this is omar in new york.

i was interested in twitter. i'm sure every one had heard the controversy surrounding twitter it's around 25% below what it was trading for in july. with the possibility of them going private, i was woerndi in how the company would perform if they were to pivot away tr advertising as their main source of revenue >> karen, what are your thoughts >> well, they are now -- i think right now the situation is much more about the takeover than w whatever the nfundamentals of th stock are and however they choose to tinker with the business model i don't think that matters now what matters is does elon really want to proceed? if he does, if he pays more he can end up owning it

that's really the most important thing. you have to have a view on that. we don't know what elo n will d with his 9.2% stake. we don't know where the market goes >> guy, in terms of the various things twitter could do to monetize its business better does the subscription service make the users a bigger pool or a smaller pool >> we talked about this last week dan mentioned this he thought if they went to a sub model would be worse for the company. people would flee.

i think it's too valuable a product to be trading where it's trading. i think the tail winds now in te terms of the stock price are there. >> next up, a question from travis on paypal >> i've taken the ride from 200 up to 300 down to 100. i'm curious if you think i should stay on the ride or get rid of it and be done with it. thanks >> stick with it tim or leave paypal >> it's certainly, you've taken that trip down the roller coaster where your stomach feels really awful i do think you see a case where the stock finds base i think the multiple it's trading at didn't make sense

this is a tech company but i think there's exposure to a consumer at some point here despite the jobs that are tight and the balance sheets that are seemingly fine >> we have bonus edition of final trades let's g around the horn. tim, let's start with you. >> i stay in this resource trade we have been dancing around it whether it's caterpillar or deere. we're nowhere near the end >> i don't know what my final trade is i don't know what tyler

technologies is. >> all right we'll fast forward then. it's the type of business i would like give me a balance sheet or give me death >> delta news with shepard smith starts now. masks on planes, not anymore. this is the news on cnbc a federal judge strikes down the law that requires face coverings. >> hates the mask man date the ruling and what the legal fight means for travelers nation wide russian missiles strike lviv the western city under rare attack as ukraine braces for the fall of mariupol. : murder mystery