today by 2%. process of elimination, that must be you. >> it is it's a trading at an all-time high it's great to own it on a day where you see the roblox down 10%. laggards are really laggards >> okay. good stuff thank you. see you in the "ot". "the exchange" is now. thank you, scott hi, everybody. welcome to "the exchange." if you thought netflix was bad last night, it's worse this afternoon. the shares are down 37% now. the company is worth less than $100 billion is it too late for netflix to turn things around we'll talk to the analyst who called this one right. laura martin is here and why she just upgraded the stock. but is what's bad for netflix good for other parts of the market like oil, for instance? why our guest says this makes him even more bullish on energy becoming a bigger and bigger

part of the market yesterday in earnings exchange, we warned you investors were more excited for ibm than netflix. today we tackle tesla, united airlines and alcoa, first, dom on the markets. >> this guy is going to have that alcoa call on metals later in earnings exchange i'm getting ready for that right now we have a very interesting trade developing in the markets right now, because we're reverting to some of the themes we've seen over the course of the last several months right now the dow industrials up 361 points that represents roughly session highs right now. up about 1%. one-third percent gains for the s&p technology the nasdaq composite off 100 points roughly three quarters of one percent to the downside. a gap. watching what's happening with the hot sector in today's trade, and it's due in large part to one company in particular.

we're talking about procter & gamble up 2.5% not far away from record highs it comes out with an earnings report that was better than expected for not just revenues but also for profits it also upped the forecast for a key level of sales growth going forward. that's what has those shares higher near session highs, that's propping up a lot of the other staples names like walmart, coke koe in a, hershey and hormel foods. they've all hit record highs at some point in trading today. watch that consumer staples trade. by the way, later on this afternoon, procter & gamble ceo will be on with the folks over at closing bell for a big, big time interview talking a lot about inflation, talking about the consumer trends and what not. a must-watch interview there and closing bell at the 3 p.m. hour today. we're going to end as kelly mentioned, with the stock in today. it has to be netflix it is down now 35% off the session lows kelly mentioned that it's worth a little less than $100 billion right now.

to give you an idea of what it was at the peak, just in the fall of this past year, it was over $300 billion in terms of that size. it was at one point in the history, bigger than disney. that's how far it's fallen netflix the stock of the day one to watch i'll send things over to you >> one of the most incredible market stories of the past couple years that's saying something. dom, thank you netflix is the big story. we have all the angles covered with julia having the latest from the company mark douglas is the ceo of mountain he has our advertising angle covered. molly wood has the competition and streaming, and laura martin has our trades today she's upgrading netflix to hold from underperform after being vindicated with her call for the last few years that they should and woulded a add an ad-based tier julia? >> the company lost 200,000 s

subscribers in the first quarter. and things are going to get worse before they get better netflix goiding to the loss of 2 million subs in the second quarter instead of guiding to the addition of 2.6 million. as for the slower revenue growth, netflix blamed market penetration, competition, sluggish economic growth, inflation, and pass word sharing to 100 million households. to help reverse that slowing growth, they are working to turn some of those households into subscribers, and in a big 180, the co-ceo saying he's open to advertising, saying it gives consumers a lower cost choice. >> allowing consumer who is would like to have a lower price and are advertising tolerant, get what they want makes a lot of sense so that's something we're looking at now we're trying to figure out how the next year or two

think of us as quite open to offering even lower prices with advertising as a consumer choice >> meanwhile the co-ceo says they are focussed on improving the quality of the programming as well as the programming recommendations. >> that was one key plank this -- the opened missed advertising. did they talk about any openness to sports and live news programming? >> a very good question. because those were two things advertising and live news and sports two things that netflix has been very clear it was opposed to for a long time. in the earnings call last night, there was a question, now that you're open to adds, does this mean you might be open to sports the answer was not for now they see a clear path to usiiin ads to bring down the cost of a profitable engagement with advertising. they said it's not clear that sports would do the same thing for them sports rights are expensive, very competitive space and

wouldn't necessarily add that much value for them. it was a not for now on sports and news and there aren't that many sports rights up for grabs, and a lot of the tech giants are increasingly looking at those rights as well >> absolutely. julia, thank you laura, i will turn to you first, if you want to tackle that aspect of this first is it a mistake for netflix not to be openly pursuing sports and live news right now? >> yeah, i think the key point is they need to innovate faster. they need to not be the last streaming service to add an advertising tier when everyone has one. they should be doing even if it's sports adjacent documentaries like the big michael jordan, they can be doing content around live sports even if they aren't directly bidding for live sports rights they're doing stuff with f-1 i don't know if you think of car racing as sports but they should be doing things in the ancillary market. and news you can get news free on your platform, and that's -- as long

as you rev share when you get advertising here, you should be able to sign up a bunch of the news services just like roku. >> laura, do you want to react to what an extraordinary 24 hours this has been for the company? it is i think poetic justice that you've upgraded them to market perform >> yeah. we've been a sell on this one for a really long time it was really painful going through covid, because they had a couple months where they were really strong. look, i would say this we were right for the right reasons meaning they needed an ad driven tier to compete with everyone else. they need to figure a way to bundle their service they need to figure a way to bundle the way disney and peacock and paramount have bundles, and hay need to have a broader genre of sports. the consumers -- the job the consumers want done is entertaining them in leisure hours. you got to have news

programming. and similarly with live sports where there's something fantastic going on in the sports world, you need to be able to have access to that, and their competitors do they need to solve some of the genre issues as well as the business model issues as well as the bundling issues to low return we think they're on that path. i found yesterday blamy of external factors and them reacting i think they need to put more of that blame on their decision making being slow. so i'm hoping that this sort of slap in the face of these numbers they're reporting is a wakeup call for them to start looking side to side, because many streamers are doing much more innovative things they need to copy the more innovative streamers >> mark douglas, let me push to you. one of the things laura pointed out was the openness with the advertising, the platform sounds like it could be at least a year away how much more quickly should they be moving and can you respond generally to how this will change the landscape and

the opportunities in streaming? >> yes so i think it will take a bit of time for them to introduce advertising into the platform. there are a lot of decisions to make is it ads at the beginning of the shows, during the shows, is what content is it again there are a lot of decisions to take that's going to take a lot of time. fundamentally, there are consumers want to be entertained. and if netflix brings in a price point on the level of a cup of coffee in new york city, there's just a huge number around the new consumer set going to netflix. and i think that's not just in the u.s. where they have 70 % and 80 % market penetration. i think the opportunity worldwide from netflix to continue to expand the user base is incredible. i would be buying netflix all day long today at this price >> no one is stopping you, are they >> i hope -- follow me so the price moves up. i'm all for it

>> i love it mark douglas, making a move on netflix. molly, let me turn to you, molly. there are a couple things here like laura said. the company's own strategy is maybe no longer bearing out the way it once did when they were the early pioneer with their huge success in streaming in fact let's talk about bingeing when you watch some shows on apple and the other streaming platforms, they make you watch once a week like the old school tv channels used to. what does it do? it makes you stick around for a little while longer. you can't just watch a show in a night and cancel it the next day. what do you think of the streaming competition, and why are the stocks down? is the whole field oversaturated? isn't anybody benefitting from their declines >> you know, it's interesting. netflix certainly was the pioneer of -- netflix is an innovator. they were the pioneer of what we came to call streaming fatigue there are so many options right now. and netflix tried to build a mote in effectively the worst

and most expensive way possible, to pour money into content, which i can tell you is not a good strategy. it's expensive, and there's so much of it that it's hard to compete. so they created this sort of populist product, but at premium pricing. i am not happy as a customer to find out that i was paying 20 a month to subsidize 100 million people password sharing when netflix even before going so far as introducing something like ads, netflix could be slicing and dicing the content and offering tiered subscriptions. let people password sharing pay $5 a month for just the library, or if you want to just get movies, create a tier for that i think there's a lot of innovation that could have happened all this time, and netflix prioritized growing and then pumping out lots and lots of forgettable content that to your exact point, you could consume really quickly, and then be done with, meaning you're on

a permanent fly-will, and pumping money into content like that is a black hole >> laura, to puta point on this, we are seeing big declines across paramount, across the disney, the rest of the landscape. even though we're saying there are aspects of those models that netflix needs to emulate what does that tell you about the value destruction investors are worried about here >> so yeah, i think the question that netflix has raised is is the total number of streaming subscribers smaller than we thought, and are the unit economics lower than we thought. the enormous content budgets, disney is going to spend 30 billion of which 20 is on content. are they ever going to pay off but by the way, if the answer is no, that means we get consolidation faster there will be three of these in three years instead of three in ten years. at the end of the day, a winning strategy is to lose streaming. and get bought by one of the big guys >> mark, to that point, i was

thinking about this. netflix is now -- this is really thrown open the whole industry i mean, when the incumbent looks mortal, all the sudden really interesting things can happen. i don't know what kind of combinations, advertising opportunities. the consumer is crying out for someone to rebundle it >> yes, but if the avshlg consumer i think there have been studying done saying they're willing to spend roughly $40 to $50 a month on streaming entertainment. so netflix, i've always said, netflix fills the hours between everyone else's hit shows. and even their own hit shows when you're like what are we going to watch, the first choice is let's go and see what's on netflix. that's not going away which means netflix is not going away. and then you have basically the other players trying to fill premium spots. netflix has always filled this position they have a huge content library, and i think consumers, that's how they think of them,

and that's not going to change one other thing is those 100 million subscribers that are using other people's pass words, that's the first group i think as was mentioned to start charging this lower tier price point to you're looking at just a -- they could increase a customer base by almost a third just off those subscribers. and that i think is an incredible opportunity that we're looking at, not like a downturn for netflix it's an upturn, i think. >> we are one of those password sharing households my husband's sister's account. laura is, too. laura, can you quickly comment on executive turnover? i mean, if we're about to enter a different era in which consolidation is key, does that require a different management team >> so -- wow, that is a question i have not gotten yet today, but anyway, let's address first the employee turnover. as you know there's a shortage of labor in america right now.

and specifically relating to netflix, they last achieved this in 2018. if you joined this company in the last five years, you're not making any money on your equity. i expect people to leave and go to paramount orb warner brothers that's a problem for them. the most important asset you have is your content creatives creatives and executives i expect them to start losing people that will be a late indicator to fast value destruction as they try to attract people with their louzy stock price. >> does this -- are we in a different and new era now for streaming, and if so, what should the leadership look like and what should consumers expect >> we unquestionably are, and again, although netflix may have pioneered this shift to streaming and digital, if i'm going to pay $40 a month for streaming, it's going to be increasingly hard to justify netflix being half of that if they don't innovate.

without immediate signs of innovation, whether it's creating new pricing tiers or figuring out how, for example, to do that shared watching experience where maybe one party is renting a movie to watch, right? there are sort of so many opportunities for innovation i think if you don't start to see that in the next three to six months and all we see is we might pivot to ads eventually, i think you have to ask yourself real questions about leadership. there's no doubt at all that the landscape has changed. everyone came for netflix, and netflix did not change to keep up with them that's a problem innovation absolutely seems to be the keyword here we'll leave it there thanks this was so much fun laura martin, mark douglas, and molly wood coming up a bold energy call that is connected to netflix's call we mark two years since oil prices turned negative first, small caps

underperforming the s&p since january 1st. they're still beating the broader index over the past two years and the case for small caps to get back in leadership is next on t"the exchange." your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

welcome back to "the exchange." 20-year bonds up for auction highest yield across the curve maybe it will tell us something about what's going on with japan's demand right now rick santelli is tracking the action at the cme for us >> you're right in focus in tune with the markets, kelly. yes, they figured big into the auction. 16,000,000,020-year bonds. the yield, 2 .095. that's well below where the one issued market was trade. that alone gave it a good grade. my grade on this auction, a plus does it get any higher than that the internals are fabulous highest bid to cover in all 24, 20-year auctions here's the thing indirect bids that include foreigners that include the japanese. 75.9%. i have never seen a number that high it just blows away all the other

numbers for the other 24 auctions it means that dealers only took 8.7%, because investors, especially foreign ones, were fighting for the 20-year and indeed, as you look at the charts, you can see clearly be that we had a bit of a rise in rates. that's an understatement, of course earlier in the week. but the drop that started yesterday from significant levels, especially foreigners, said if you're going to grab an instrument, grab the one with the highest yield on the curve kelly, back to you >> remarkable stats. rick, thank you. all right. we didn't quite cross above 3% on the ten-year yield, but so far the rising rate environment has been a head wind for the small caps my next guest says that's about to change and it's goim time to get offensive. sandy, it's good to see you again. has the main head wind for small caps been that the defensive positioning is what's mostly been working in this market?

>> that's exactly right. as rates go up and they're going to continue to, right, the fed has talked about 50 basis points probably more in may and in june and july as that happens it's a bit of a head wind. historically if you look over the last six rate height cycles, small caps averaged 17% from the first hike we think it is an opportunity to take advantage of let's call it beaten up sectors like technology or even look at the vanguard growth even on a large cap standpoint up about -- down about 14% year to date with vanguard value up about 2% that's 16% delta i just think it's time to play a little offense and it's a stock picker's market. stocks follow earnings we're going to find the companies that can do well look at netflix today. it's bringing down the market, but it's a stock picker's market you've got to be on the right companies. >> it's weird. you think if value is not performing if the financials are

supposed to do well, both would typically favor small caps >> right financials being domestically oriented and they have more net interest margin. they should do well. and rising rates and just look at the breakdown of the russell 2000 versus the s&p 500. the s&p is about 28% in technology whereas the russell is only about 14%. so if rates going up are bad for technology stocks, that's going to hurt the large cap index disproportionately to small caps. >> but people acknowledging the stock picking environment right now, you're looking -- is free port considered a small cap? >> yes >> on semi, which i think of as a bigger company in palamar? >> palamar is the smallest in that group they're going to earn something like $3 in 2023 and $4 in 2024 that's an insurance company that's growing at 30%, trading

at 15 times earnings i think that's a real value, the ceo has been doing a great job, and i think, again, eventually the stock price will follow those earnings, and on semis, a little bit bigger, and it's just -- it's really hitting on every cylinder they were supposed to get margins to 40% in three years. it's above that right now. that stock is also cheap, and industrial automation, and electric vehicles and 5g buildout i think that one is going to work well, and free suport is t last one it should work well as a hedge against inflation and also electric vehicles using about four times as much copper as combustion engine cars >> i can't wait to see what happens with the small versus large, but certainly the sectors that you've picked have been

working no matter what size. semis will be thes a terrific there. but copper insurance as we know and the dows have been strong as well it's great to have you here. thank you so much. >> thanks, take care we're going to hear much more about rates and inflation on on "the exchange" tomorrow there's a panel tomorrow with jay powell and christine lagarde. it's beginning at 1:00 p.m. eastern time while new home construction remains strong, sales of the existing home inventory keep slowing. it doesn't help that home prices are high and mortgage rates are now soaring. we have the latest numbers ahead. plus brace yourselves. another round of results are coming after the bell today. and we have a preview in earnings exchange. the action, the story, and the trades for tesla united airlines, and alcoa that's next on "the exchange".

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welcome back to "the exchange." here's your cnbc news update at this hour. in the besieged city of mariupol a ukrainian commander says his troops may be able to only last hours longer as russian forces continue to attack he urged the international community to help evacuate women, children, and the elderly from the besieged city in washington d.c. secret service officers shot and killed an intruder at the home of the pa roouf yan ambassador to the united states. people in the residents called for help when the suspect began breaking windows the film company producing the movie "rust" has been issued the maximum possible state fines for

firearm safety the new mexico regulators found there were willful safety violations ahead of the fatal shooting of a cinematographer. johnny depp addressing accusations of assault by his ex-wife. on the news tonight with shep smith, will jurors believe depp's testimony shep will break it down tonight at 7 eastern time. kelly, back to you >> i'll see you soon thank you very much. still ahead, today is the two-year anniversary of oil prices going negative. my next guest called that one his new call, energy not just rallying but hitting 10% of the s&p 500, and there's a netflix angle. he'll explain, next. ♪ ♪ connecting to opportunity is just part of the hustle. ♪ ♪

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welcome back oil has been on a roller coaster ride of late surging to over $130 a barrel this year and prompting all sorts of government intervention to lower prices and yet two years ago today, its price went deeply

negative an analyst called the move on the exchange on march 19th of 2020 saying oil could turn negative has supply then far exceeded demand. that came true a month later he's back with another bold call which is that oil stocks will hit 10% of the s&p and that's as much because of shrinking in stocks of netflix as because of the up side for energy paul is back to does welcome, sir >> hello, how are you? >> just connect the dots for us quickly. your reaction to netflix is, and why you think that means energy which has shrivelled to 3% of the market could still grow substantially from here? >> well, the most important is the cost of capital. i think this is the most under analyzed part of the market from the point of view of analysts. the market self-analyzes it, that's kind of what it's doing with the overall nasdaq, the s&p, for example, where it's

implying obviously the fed raising rates, cost of capital going up and the value of equity, therefore, goes down if returns don't keep up if -- i hope i'm making sense. when you additional cut, for example, netflix's returns outlook, you really have a double whammy where you're looking at a much lower equity value. it could be for any tech stock based on the fact that your anticipation of a loss of future cash flow gets massively cut and in the context of rising cost of capital, your equity value is cut even more. that's basically what's happening with some of these names that were highly valued and very low interest rates, very low cost of capital with the very strong outlook, because of covid and people watching internet tv and so on. that's radically changed at the same time with the oils, what you're seeing here is very strong cash generation, and very strong cash return to shareholders in a tough market with buybacks, that's going to

make them outperform >> let's talk about the oil price. go ahead and ask for another call on this one it's really kind of fluctuated, hovered around the $100 a barrel mark for the last couple months since the big spike. where do we go from here do you see it going structurally higher does it matter do you think the energy can be 10% of the s&p even if we stay at current levels or go lower? >> i think generally speaking the argument is when oil prices are rising with demand rising, you'll outperform the s&p 500. i think at the moment the free cash flow of the equities, free cash flow yield is -- 20% to 30% free cash flow yield compared to the market at 2% or 3% there's a lot of power to that and all of that is considering about $85 oil. so at 100, we're definitely doing just great i was smiling because i think it was last time i was on you were saying it's been pretty calm in

oil. it's tough, the china covid situation. that's a head scratcher. that's huge for demand we think there may be 2 million barrels in lost nand that's a big deal. you assume that's going to come back, and then we had last week, the delta airlines ceo talking about strong demand for jet travel and transatlantic and business travel. there's more demand to come in a high price environment that's very powerful for the outperformance >> as china hopefully reopens and normalizes here, it's not like we have a big supply lever that we can pull so are oil prices going to spike again in. >> there is a risk of it as you know, this is for the governments pushing down, pushing out a lot of strategic emergency reserves we're still at 100 plus oil. you know, eve within that additional oil and you can't -- there's quite a long way to go but the market will get increasingly nervous about that

as a sustainable supply source and at the same time, the truly sustainable supply, which is going to be things like saudi arabia or the u.s. is very questionable in terms of how much more it can grow for example, yesterday we had the halliburton ceo on his call saying i think we're maxed out on fracking capacity in the u.s. right ow you can't make oil production with that fracking it's saying there's not going to be a lot of great acceleration in u.s. growth despite the high prices >> so finally, let's talk about your favorite places to be in the energy space is it refiners >> everyone who does oil is thrilled about refining. not only short-term, but we think this is a structural move, and you lose a lot of refining capacity in russia assuming that doesn't come back. so it's actually a longer term trade than just the usual -- that's one area. and then, of course, you know, if you're saying attempts on the

s&p, you have to love them all whether it's the u.s. -- a lot of better companies with better strategies exxon will do very well with high downstream earnings as well as high upstream earnings. the list goes on >> we'll see if you're two for two. paul, it's great to have you back thank you so much. and still ahead, tesla options are implying a 13 % move on the results while less than half the street is bullish on united and with aluminum prices 15% off the highs, does that spell trouble or not for alcoa we'll get the story and trade on each of the names ahead of the sus nit,exrelttogh nt. hing, it'e get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

welcome back it's time for earnings exchange. today's edition featuring tesla. let's get the story, the action and trade on all three key names reporting tonight. starting with tesla. it's beaten earnings estimates

the past eight quarters. the shares fell more than 11% on the results in january and they're down about 9% already in april phil is here with the story on tesla and danielle has our trades she's director of options at simpler trading. welcome to you both. phil, what are you looking for >> it's the numbers within the numbers that people are focussed on auto gross margin, how much pressure they're under as they open up two plants, one in austin, one in germany what is the company saying about the chip supply and production in china those are a couple of the wild cards out there. china in particular. they shut down the plant last four or five days of march that will impact q-1 numbers a little bit not a lot but a little bit but we haven't seen production resume so far in april it raises the question, how long will it be down? how much will it hurt? their production forecast, that's going to come out during the conference call. unlikely we see the numbers reflecting that right away when the numbers first come out, but

the conference call and obviously on the conference call it's elon musk what does he say >> right, and just to be clear, because there was -- we didn't know until -- i mean, so he tweeted himself that he will definitely be on that call around what time 5:30 eastern >> 5:30 eastern is when the call started. somebody tweeted at him directly and said are you going to be on the call he said yes. so now the question becomes, how much will he be asked about twitter, and possibly collateralizing his stake in tesla to fund a purchase of twitter? now, he's going to get some questions. he has a history when analysts continue to ask about certain things he doesn't want to talk about, if he doesn't want to talk about it, he'll saythat's it, i'm done i'm not talking anymore. it's going to be interesting to see a, how much he wants to talk about it and b, how much that dominates the conversation versus tesla's specific questions in terms of ramping up production this year. >> for sure. danielle, think of you as sort of a long-time tesla bull.

there was a tweet where it said watch out because tesla could go the way of netflix it pioneered to category, but here comes the competition and watch out. >> you know, i don't believe it. he has always tried -- i still can't figure out why, but i am a very strong tesla bull so perhaps that's why -- when you're looking at -- >> with this quarter yes, there's a variety of issues. you have supply chain costs. you have the shanghai shutdown but overall -- >> i think we lost >> danielle, you good. you want to keep going >> do we have sound? >> i think we're good. go ahead >> okay. should i repeat that >> all right so when you're looking at tesla over the course of the past quarter, yes, there are a lot of issues we had issues with shanghai. we had issues with the supply chain. but overall, tesla's done a

fantastic job getting past a lot of those issues, and when you look at the way that they have now opened two different factories, i think their guidance is going to be incredibly strong this quarter in particular due to the increased capacity loads they have however, i want to point out that on the earnings report, while it did fall during market hours last quarter, the overnight moves have gotten smaller and smaller and smaller over the course of the last three years. when you look at tesla, it's continued to price in a higher move throughout the course of the week and throughout the course of the trading day. but in reality, it really only moves about 3% overnight so i think that in the options market, particularly, looking at selling calls and puts on both sides with some protection, makes the most sense because i'm looking for a muted move >> yeah. we know you like earnings momentum that's what tesla shares have shown in recent quarters we'll see if they continue that tonight with everything else that is going on

and phil, stay with us we'll turn now to shares united airlines they also report tonight with two straight years of losses under their belt the street expecting much the same for q-1 to the tune of the about $4 a share amid high fuel costs and variant covid concerns but delta reported better than expected could united surprise to the up side shares are up about 3% this week >> whether or not they surprise in q1, i don't think anybody cares. q1 was a disaster for all airlines and then it turned around the focus is what are you seeing for q2 and the rest of the year? if the numbers and optimism are as strong as delta, watch out. i think this is what we're seeing for all the airlines. i think what we've seen is a true switch in terms of travel demand that is out there both leisure, and we're starting to see it more on the corporate side it's all about what does united

say about the second quarter, the summer, heading into the fall, that's going to be the focus, and then we'll talk with scott kirby during fast money tonight. >> all right meanwhile, danielle is saying you're feeling neutral to bearish on united. what do they have to do to impress you? >> i agree with everything that phil said. but the fact of the matter is that they're in a down trend, and they've already rallied going into the report. and even if they do move 2 % to the up side which is about what's expected, it's just going to move the stock directly into key resistance at about the $50 price point. for me, on a weekly chart, it's in a down trend. it makes the most sense to short it i just think overall the airliners -- they've done nothing over the course of the past 18 months sure, there was a trade right after the covid crash, but for me, it just doesn't make sense to try and bet on this to the long side when there's so many other relative strength winners you can focus on >> on a break you're saying of

43, you can see it return to 35 a share. there's united around 46 and change united ceo will join fast money tonight at 5:00 p.m. eastern to react to those results, perhaps discuss and provide a little more color phil, our thanks to you very much for bringing us the story on that one. and finally, we turn to alcoa, the former bellwether the aluminum producer now out of the dow, but they've beaten esp estimates for two years since it happened those beats took place even before the commodities super cycle started. this year the shares are definitely benefitting they're already up 160% and they've generally been popping after results lately dom is back with that story. dom? >> so we don't talk about it as much like you said, back in 2016 in two separate companies and since then one of the companies split itself again but the alcoa that we know of today has been absolutely as you point out, on a bull run, and then that's thanks in large part to the runup in metals prices

exacerbated by the war between ukraine and russia today's alcoa is the so-called upstream business. it's that old world naught so sexy, not so growthy business, but it's now one of the hottest ones out there companies are clamoring to get their hands on raw materials like aluminum, even at these inflated prices. that optimism is definitely reflected as you point out in that stock price over the last 12 months, remember the s&p is up 8%. 160% gains for alcoa in that same time. that's pushed the market value to nearly $16 billion. that's by the way, more than the growthy helmet aero space operations split off from arconic. helmet is worth around $15.5 billion. the expectation, $3.45 billion in shares and the options market is pricing a move of roughly 5

.8% up and down. that's less volatile than over the eight quarters in earnings reports. >> it's the return of alcoa. danielle, you say this is one of the most gorgeous, bullish charts out there right now >> yes kelly, i love the technical chart on this one. i love the macro story behind it i think even the move today, it fellower it hit the 50 simple it's bouncing right there. i think it's at a great buy spot i hate buying stocks anywhere near highs right? but if i can get them when they fall and fall back down into an area of support, i mean, for me that's a great entry point especially when there's still up side potential when i'm looking at alcoa, yes, normally there's a 2 to 7% move over the last four quarters but ultimately, i'm looking for about $100 price point i don't think it's going to happen tomorrow, but i do think it makes sense for traders to either a, come in before

earnings and get long alcoa by sell puts or buying the shares if you don't like getting in front of earnings, which i know a lot of people don't, then you can just wait until after the report, after the news hits, and try to trade it higher in may and june this is a very strong a strong,. i want to ride it to a new high. >> all right thank you. dom chu, we appreciate it. they're not the only ones but a busy after hours session still ahead, despite what's happening with netflix this legacy name up nearly 9% this week thanks to a big earnings boost today. we have the name next.

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exchange." the dow near the session high up 388. about 30 points off that left and outperforming with a 1% gain the nasdaq down. although it's halved the earlier declines ibm was a mystery chart before the break. the stock on pace for the best day in two years and 8% revenue jump in q1 shares um to 139 the ceo will be on "closing bell" today 3:00 p.m. eastern with more on the results shares of lululemon squeezed after the retailer announced a plan to double revenue with international sales and mens and digital. shares are selling off tomorrow morning the ceo calvin mcdonald on "squawk on the street." home prices still on the rise despite moth rtgemoga rates

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welcome back, everybody. existing home sales not great, better than expected in march. with rates on the rise but there's a catch. diana olick is here with the housing data for us. diana? >> reporter: we were expecting a march but only because february sales revised much lower so suffice to say that sales are falling but prices are still on fire the median price of an existing home sold in march $373,300, an increase of march of last year and highest price since 1968 prices are strong because supply is not better. 950,000 homes for sale at the end of march a drop from the year before. what about the rising mortgage

rates? the sales are based on closings and likely signed in january and february when rates rose from 3.29 to 3.9. rates then really jumped in march and april and now 5.32%. it's nearly half of what it was a year ago refis are doing 70%. applications to buy a home down 14% from a year ago. the realtors' lock box indicator, it was down 19% in march from a year ago and has to be the higher mortgage rates playing into the market. >> still home construction is rising doesn't feel like the market is falling through yet. >> reporter: the new home report of yesterday we saw the jump in rental apartments and need that

but saw a drop in single family housing starts and permits we're seeing that on the single family side. >> that's a key point. i still like to watch a single family for the trend thank you so much. diana olick with the latest. that's it for "the exchange. "power lunch" picks things up right now. welcome to "power lunch. kelly will join us in a minute i'm tyler the story of the day is netflix. having one of the worst sessions ever down 62% in 2022 can you imagine that it is mass iive disappointing results.