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tv   Tech Check  CNBC  April 22, 2022 11:00am-12:00pm EDT

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verizon. >> not getting a good response to their earnings. twitter up about 4.5%. maybe people looking at the package introduced by mr. musk there are plenty of doubts, but he seems to be addressing them as we head into the weekend. that's going to do it for us "tech check" starts now. >> good morning. today, bend, don't snap, a miss on sales and profit. what results mean for consumer internet stocks. and disney is on thin ice. the stock is near a 17-month low. and a special day on cnbc. don't miss a live interview with the secretary of the treasury. >> you don't want to miss that one. we start with snap and what
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results mean for the rest of the ad market. apple, meta, twitter, all up next week. a lot of people are saying this is a company growing its users faster than facebook and twitter. >> they show strong corporate fundamentals, and strong head winds. they had 2 million more than analysts anticipated the company also forecast the addition of more users for the second quarter, saying they see as many as 5 billion ahead of expectation. plus, before russia's invasion of ukraine, the company was saying the company's revenue was growing 44%. afterwards they paused spending and so far growth is down to 30%. here is the red flag
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the company guided between 20 and 25% overall growth that indicates expectations that things will get worse over the rest of the quarter. they say the ios changes limits ad targeting they list things like splupply chain shortages. they say this may forecast other online digital ad stocks, like alphabet, meta and pintrest. they will have to see how much all of those macroimpact other players. >> especially since companies like meta have more exposure
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>> can you break down the call last night and how snap wants to use it or reassure customers they are not using it? >> it is the latter. fingerprinting is the next frontier in terms of minimizing ad targeting it's a way companies keep track of who you are snap says they do not use fingerprinting and say snap is well insulated from a crackdown on fingerprinting, which is something they rely on when it comes to this particular fingerprinting issue, snap is well positioned. >> julia, that chart of the last few hours, especially last night, shows you although the conference call quickly answered some of the questions, but it's obvious investors have a hairpin
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trigger on any news on the event. >> absolutely. this was a fascinating microcosm of what is going on. we have to wonder how each much the social platforms are doing with their own roadmap to establish growth this is a company that has finished out many of its challenges it had accelerated revenue up to the point where it hit the wall. that was from what happened after russia invaded ukraine and all of those advertisers hit a pause. but there is a question of who is better or worse positioned when it comes to navigating those head winds snap gave a lot of details of what the growth rate was at various periods of time to show they were doing well and then they were just facing these challenges
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snap has figured out how to navigate the apple navigating changes, but it is an on going process. >> fascinating last night. dow is down 520, nasdaq decline of almost 1% although it is outperforming dow, down 9%. the second derivative of growth we are seeing flatten out, right >> that's right, that's accurate >> what happens to your forecast where did you take your numbers? >> we took our numbers down. our outlook for the coming quarter is in line with the high end of the company's guidance. i think julia did a good job of laying out some of the drivers and feedback we got from the company. i think there is a bigger issue and it's this intersection of concern toward growth stocks overall and expectations
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embedded in the stock. if you look at changes made in our model beyond the second quarter, we took a more conservative view of long-term growth i think investors are already there. i think the analyst community was been slowing to understand that some of these challenges will be sustained. i have some concern about stories that are considered reacceleration stories there is a lot of uncertainty. i felt like snap was very transparent about it i think the stock is a good value, good idea, but we are in a transition period where people need to accept that reacceleration is challenging. >> give me some examples >> look at stocks across the board. an example of something that came out just this week was netflix talking about user growth or member growth reaccelerating as you get out in the future i am not saying it's impossible,
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but i think we need to take a hard look at the information in front of us, what the challenges are in the industry and maybe take a bit more -- i don't want to say cautious, but just realistic view of the potential for reacceleration there is member growth, advertiser growth. i think over the course of the last year we were excited about the sky being the limit and now we are seeing a number of head winds. we have opportunity for growth for businesses i just don't know why things reflect upwards from here. >> many people have been focused on the slowdown from netflix numbers, but you are actually looking for acceleration is this an opportunity for netflix? >> netflix gave you guidance for the second quarter of 2 million decline in members beyond that the outlook was to return to growth, so that is a
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reacceleration i think they will return to growth in the back half of the year but when i look beyond 2022, do i think the pace of growth will accelerate beyond that i am harder pressed to say that. >> are people too negative on streaming? we have seen a number of stocks get beaten down, but if you are talking about a race acceleration for the future, the end of this year >> i think the pendulum tends to swing too far any time we get a substantial update on information. in the case of netflix, i think there were two data points in particular that do impair the long-term view of streaming. one is where the company runs into resistance with respect to its member growth. i think at 220 million global members, that is more than what
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the case had been historically second is profitability and what the profit margins look like i believe the investment community believe we could get well beyond the 20%. i do think being negative on every streaming company in every case is extreme and not accurate there is a difference whether you are streaming music or video, ad supported or not i think the pendulum has swung too far on streaming as a category >> disney is back to levels we last saw in october of 2020. you have a hybrid myriad of concerns the streaming element, this new wave of political risk can you talk about what would it take to get you to put a buy on
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dis? >> sure. it is hard to speculate i would put a buy on it. a couple things the company is sustainably good this company has the most unique collection of intellectual property of any media company in the world. that drives sustainable value for a business, whether in a traditional television channiel platform release, it's excellent. so that is foundational to what we think about that said, at these levels there is still an expectation of success embedded in the company and there are head winds you mentioned in the political environment, questions within that there is always concession concerns with the park business. we continue to look at the stock as closely to fair value than to put your money to work
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to get back to social media, do you think content spend will continue at these record levels or ease up >> for the near term context will continue to grow at record levels these businesses haves been trained or rewarded to grow at any cost we have seen nearly every company spend and pursue -- >> hasn't that changed though? >> well, i think the paradigm is changing and you are seeing it it but i don't think you are hearing from the companies that they are focused on quality or unique spend within their brand. i think you are hearing things like doubling down on creative excellence, continuing to grow our spend. there really isn't a change in thought process that says we want to be really excellent at what we do at a profitable level. we are still looking at pursuit of growth at any cost. >> a lot of your names will be printing in the days to come
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look forward to touching base. >> thanks so much. janet yellen and christine lagarde are coming up on the other side of the break. i may be close to retirement, but i'm as busy as ever. and thanks to voya, i'm confident about my future. voya provides guidance for the right investments. they make me feel like i've got it all under control. [crowd cheers] voya. be confident to and through retirement. welcome to your world. your why. what drives you? what do you want to leave behind?
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for just $49.99 a month for 24 months with a 2-year price guarantee. call today. the s&p is down by more than a point. it has been quite a ride the fed indicated a 50 basis points increase on the table hi, sarah. >> hi, and i'm welcome to be here with christine lagard and janet yellen thank you for doing this i have wanted to do this for a long time. secretary yellen, i have to start with the market having a bumpy day, down another 500 points on the dow. it has been a rough start to the year
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are you concerned about the volatility as treasury secretary and the influence that might have on the country's mood, sentiment? your predecessor once called the stock market a report card on the white house. >> i don't take the stock market as reflecting the u.s. economy i think the u.s. economy has been remarkably resilient. when you think of the shots that have affected the u.s., the pandemic, commodity price increases, supply chain issues the u.s. labor market is doing extremitily well frankly, i take that as the strongest indication of how the economy is doing we have continued to create jobs
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back to prepandemic levels i think the u.s. economy has been very resilient in the face of enormous shocks >> the war in ukraine, how does that affect your view of the european outlook >> it is a sad outcome i am thinking about the people in ukraine, the devastation and the economy, the severe damage it's inflicting on ukraine you may argue that ukraine is not part of the european union, but it is applying for membership and is right next door we thought warlike this would never return again that's the first horrible shock.
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and as secretary yellen said, it has an impact on all of our economies around the world, but probably a little more so in europe because of the proximity. if you know history and a map of the world. clearly geography speaks loud and clear and we are taking a triple hit, if you will. one is trade which is luckily, relatively minor, and the second one which is maj sor is commodi, and the third is confidence. it has loerpd growth it will have an impact on inflation, that it will increase going forward. it's downside risk on growth, upside risk on inflation on a time when all of us were recovering very strongly after
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the biggest waves of the pandemic we are in this response mode mine is price stability and yours is the economy >> do you think inflation is going to get worse or do you see it having peaked in march? >> it may have peaked, but inflation has been high. i think the shots emanating from this unjustified attack on ukraine will prolong inflationary pressure. so the outlook is uncertain. as you know, the fed is taking steps to bring inflation down, but i think we will have to put up with high inflation for a while longer >> as you said, they are focused on curbing the stimulus program. you will determine by the data whether you are ready to raise interest rates to respond to inflation.
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are you all on the same page on that with ecb, and what do you do about some members who want to be a little more vigilant on the inflation part and raise rates. >> we look at projections, look at survey, look at con summers expectations very carefully. we monitor the risk of second round from price wages to prices to see how it could anchor or deanchor our inflation expectations in europe we decided in europe we had to stop the emergency special purchase program that we had we did so in march we decided in february and march, that we would be reducing the net asset purchases which was the traditional program to
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support interest rates this is likely to happen in the third quarter. it could be early in the quarter if numbers continue wait we have seen them. we have to be data dependent and sequential third quarter, high probability early in the quarter, and then we will look at interest rates sometime after the end of net asset purchases, we will look at increasing interest rates. it is not fixed and set yet as to exactly when we do that, but the journey has been unanimously at our last monetary governing council meeting. we are on that path and going to carry on step by step, as we have agreed. >> is there a chance would you not raise rates this year? >> we look at inflation numbers. we look at inflation expectations
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we look at wages and we look at how we can best deliver on price stability if the situation continues as predicated at the moment, there is a strong likelihood that rates will be hiked before the end of the year. how much how many times remains to be seen and will be data dependent. >> the fed has already started raising rates and there are expectations that we will see three 50 basis points over the next few minutes how many can the economy handle without going into recession >> i strongly believe in the independence much the fed and similar to the comments that president lagarde just gave, i know they will be looking very closely at incoming data, that their strategy will always be data dependent and they want to
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bring inflation down and be sure that inflation expectations remain aligned with price stability. they will calibrate what they think is appropriate to achieve a soft landing by keeping the economy on track and growing >> i wanted to hit on something you have said, secretary yellen. you told europe to be careful when it comes to an embargo of russian oil and gas, and that it would be damaging to the economy. can you elaborate on what would happen if that guess through >> i want to make clear it's up to europe to decide. we are fully supportive of europe's plans to reduce its dependence on russia for energy supply over time we recognize our own situation with respect to dependence on imported oil and gas
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different than the europe situation. it's up to them to decide what to do. my comment was simply that we have already seen a jump in oil prices, oil and natural gas prices have been especially high in europe. there is a possibility, for example, in imposing an import ban on russian oil could boost prices even further and raise energy prices further throughout the entire global economy. we have spent a good deal of time this week in the meetings we have been in, worried about the overall global outlook and particularly emerging markets with high debt that have high exposure to kmod can i price increases. that higher global oil prices
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could have a damaging effect as well >> europe is currently spending $850 million a day to russia for oil and gas. how do you look at the impact on the economy and do you have a contingency plan if europe decides to cut that off? >> i think the comments made by chair yellen is relevant with respect to the purpose we have is the purpose to implement a boycott irrespective much the outcome or is the purpose that we work to reduce the output by russia it would increase the treasury
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of russia, that's a complete failure. so do the europeans at large look at other sources, diversification of supply, intensification of fuel sources? absolutely the european commission along with the leaders have decided to ban a complete supply of coal. that's what they are saying. i am not privy to that but we are looking at how we can significantly reduce supply of gas and find alternative sources. you may have seen that the president from italy has gone to visit a few companies until he was stopped by covid, to see about alternative sources. there are lots of discussions taking place between the u.s.
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and europe at supplier-purchaser levels but we need to be guided by the ultimate intent that we have and that's clearly underway and under close review >> because of the energy dough penne -- dependence, is europe facing stagflation? >> if you define stagflation as a long period of very high inflation, the answer is no based on what we are seeing at the moment we are not seeing stagflation either in the baseline that we have or what we are considering. there is a lot to be considered, the scope of our sanctions, any measures down the road and how the war figures out as well.
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we have to be attentive to what's coming. >> on the sanctions front you spoke tougher, secretary yellen, calling on china to use their influence to end this war in ukraine and threaten they risk a changing attitude from the global super powers and global economy. china has not changed. they appear to be buying russian coal why are we not putting sanctions on china >> we want to be careful that china doesn't do anything to undermine the impact of our sanctions, and they are continuing to buy coal and oil isn't a violation, isn't a way of attempting to evade our sanctions. we would like to see china actively work to resolve this
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crisis and use their relationship with russia >> why aren't you doing that >> -- and hopefully putting this to an end. we hope they will be more active, but i have not seen china really undermine the impact of our sanctions in their behavior so far. >> do you see china as a downside risk both from covid, when they are locking down a city like shanghai and also a geo political confrontation with china? >> when we look at the risk at the moment and concentrate on china, there are some potential risks arising out of china we have suffered the bottleneck of covid we know from studies, that there are about 12% of goods just pending waiting somewhere in the
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world to unload, to arrive at ports and containers to be driven to destinations this is the third time that it's at the highest level at the moment there is no doubt that it is related at some level to the blockage placed on shanghai because of covid i don't think it's just limited to shanghai. i think it goes beyond that, that there are activities reduced because of covid policy. so it is an issue for the rest of the world it is an issue for china as well when we look at the projection for growth that they have, it is certainly much lower than what they had expected and were hoping for we heard 4.8% versus 5.5 which before that was even 6%. so domestically they are taking
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a hit. you have to add to that real estate and housing sectors which we saw in the last few months are suffering. it's not a rosy situation anywhere and certainly not in china. we are suffering as a result of that >> i know you said the u.s. economy is very strong, but there are all of these risks, talking about slower global growth, talking about china lockdown making supply low for investors talking about a recession this year or next, what do you tell them? >> i don't expect a recession. we are moving in a time where there are developments in russia/ukraine, commodity
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markets, the china situation these are all risks, but the imf this week issued their new world economic outlook they downgraded their growth forecast for the united states this year, but they are still expecting growth -- >> 3.7%. >> -- of 3.7% which is solid especially given that we have 6.3% unemployment. we have a lot of strengths in the united states. we have just a very strong labor market, household balance sheets are in good shape. financial institutions are strong that's a strong starting point so there are risks out there, but i'm expecting a solid year >> do you worry about a european recession? >> the shocks that the global economy are experiencing have a
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negative impact on growth. unfortunately they are escalating inflation those are problems to all countries, including europe. >> do you worry about a u.s. recession? >> we try to support each other. whether we worry or cheer, there is a great level of support and cooperation between us this has been rejuvenated, if anything, because of the russian invasion of ukraine. it helps find out who the friends are. >> one thing i want to mention, because of the war and speaking to two of the most powerful leaders, who are women, which doesn't get said enough, the women in these conflicts president lagarde, you always make a point of talking about as a result of some of these wars >> that is the case. women were the first victim of
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covid. when you look at numbers, because we are beginning to check numbers. you see those that lost their job most, who cared for elderly most, those who found jobs with great difficulty after the pandemic, were more women than men. about 6% of women lost their jobs during the pandemic and 3.2% of men as an example. not to mention the perennial lower salaries for women than men. and women have enrolled to fight in the war they are brave and courageous, but they are also the prime victims because they are the prime persons who are raped, victimized, killed eventually in the atrocities we have seen. women and children were not spared women are often used as weapon as enemies
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it has always been the case in wars i don't think this one is any different at the moment. >> thanks for sharing that it's a depressing note but an interesting one to end on. >> do you remember south africa? >> yes, i do >> she used to say men go to war and women clean up the mess. i think it will be the same again. >> we need more female leaders thank you both for taking the times. christine lagarde and janet yellen >> that's sarah eischen with an historic interview the lead is going to be that inflation has peaked from y
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yellen, but she said there would be relief. >> she said we will have to deal with elevated inflation for a while to come, even if it has peaked in march. i think it's a narrow path to a soft landing that's going to be somewhat comfortable i think that's pretty fair even though christine lagarde said no stagflation. what does that mean? i think the whole spectrum is out there. i think that's what the markets have been struggling to account for for a while as we have valuations come down and a lot of the hot money cool off. >> and the other thing is the way we are tied to the eu and their vulnerability is so much more >> they are dealing with a rate shock at the same time this inflation and growth scare is
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more dramatic because of where it's coming from, from negative to positive rates. that is something we have to consider and worrying about the china shutdown supply chain thing. chinese supply chain acting up all of these make for a complex backdrop, one we were not used to last year, even when it was a linear path. >> sarah asked secretary yellen about potential chinese sanctions, but we get an indication those were in the works. we are seeing beaten down adrs is there more that could be done that would affect them to the downside or perhaps the suggestion they may not get through, we may not see anything >> obviously there is more policymakers can do and that has to be one of the risks that whoever out there.
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it doesn't seem front burner if you want to prioritize, maybe that's one of the things to worry about because we are not already fixated on it. for those stocks, policy makers trying to fight multiple battles here obviously against inflation, and then you have the sanctions piece of it. the complexity of the backdrop i think is what has made for the market frustration >> stepping on the accelerator and the brakes at some time. mike, great interview. after the break more on snap and the broader market and shares of verizon, the phone losing 36,000 phone subs, which is less than the 49,000 expected
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many victims blame themselves when they hide those things and don't talk about them, it's a huge, huge suppression. it's important you talk to someone. >> giving these students a chance to re-evaluate one message could allow for so much in the long run, could even save one life which could make a huge difference to me
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stocks continue to move lower. the dow is down more than 550. let's talk about some of the changes. our next guest is skeptical of some of the biggest names of the week including netflix it's great to have you what is front and center of tech as we go into the earnings season >> good morning. thanks for having me i think the tech valuations in the public market have been more than cut in half in the last three to four months the sentiment has gone from growth to profitability. it takes a long time for companies to go from the growth mode to profitability. a company spending 60 or 70
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cents per dollar for growth, they have to cut that back product costs, marketing costs have to get cut back that will take time. you are starting to see some of the effects companies are doing and having on growth rates >> you take a name like meta which is down another 12% this week, more than 50% from its 52-week high is there an opportunity to pick up some of these names heading into the season? >> it depends on your perspective on demand. so far we haven't seen a decline in demand. quarterly results are coming in line if not better than expected if you believe that's going to continue, most of these stocks are cheap. if you believe we are going to go into a recession and demand will decline, i think they are
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expensive. >> take some of these work from home baskets of stock say travel basket of stocks they have almost reversed all of the covid gains. shopify back to a pre-covid level. would you expect that trend to overcorrect or flatten out >> i think they have overcorrected. they made gains during covid and i think some of those gains will sustain. the covid stocks have had a huge pendulum swing netflix, zoom have had that. i think it has overcorrected but in the same way growth stocks have done because of a willi willingness or want of profit from investors >> we could do it on e-commerce or streaming after the week now. is cost discipline the new religion >> it is, but long-term, what is the best for a company versus
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what is best for the stock price? i am a firm believer if you have a growth opportunity, you should be investing into that if you are a company that could potentially see slowing demand, you have to be very careful with spending so software companies, i think there are interesting software companies especially in the security base and industrial base that will be counter cyclical in the world if we go into recession we are long in frontier computing. we have three portfolios that are doing extremely well because of that. also we are leaning heavily into web three and that's leading because of currency, not crypto
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there are only 19 dates that have online gaming what is happening in florida and other states will push states to get more tax regulation and that will allow for regulation to open up more gaming so there are companies that is will benefit from that. >> what did you make about the comments from snap last night about their visibility and how the war in ukraine is hindering that is that a warning for not only me meta, but other sectors as well? >> advertising in europe is going to decline advertising is one of the first things to get cut in slow growth i think the war in ukraine is affecting that but i think carl knows my view on social media. i am not a fan every generation has their own social media app they use.
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i think all of these social media apps will decline over time snap is more of a communication tool there is a lot of interesting things happening around communication. my telegram is lighting up with new friends joining it every day and less and less action on snap i think there will be a trend to move away from openness and oversharing to privacy i think that's the beginning of what you are seeing on snap. all of the things they do with ar and vr are a distraction. >> that's what i was going to ask you, focusing on the next leg of growth for the future, which is va. >> it will take five-plus years. it is a novel gimmick but not an interesting application that
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people are flocking to >> thank you selling is accelerating. dow is down 525.
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we continue to watch the markets and the nasdaq is now down about 1 1/3%. the biggest laggards are farmer names like deckscom, align technology, and carter further down on the list, alphabet shares are down 3% ahead of earnings next week. >> indeed. coming up, why one wall street firm says gaming is the best opportunity in media "tech check" is back after a quick break. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire (cto) ♪ i want the world. ♪
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we keep saying session lows. it's true once again dow's down 600+. we are at the lows of the session. s&p down more than 1.7%. dominic chu has more with what's moving in tech, dom? >> it's interesting because the nasdaq trade is maybe splitting hairs and it's outperforming today. the nasdaq overall is down 1.5% and i say only a little tongue in cheek because you mentioned session lows down about 1.75%. if you take at why this is important. if you go all of the way to the record highs as we saw last fall, this move lower today is not at the lows that we saw over the past year, but it brings us down 20% and perhaps what some traders out there refer to as bear market territory, this pullback of 20% or so from the record highs that we've seen keep an eye on the nasdaq
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composite, there is a focus what's happening with that technology and communication services trade because over the course of the past week, it has been an underperformer in many ways over the broader market technology, and s&p is down 1.5% netflix, a big driver of that 7.5% down side and that green side is something to watch industry watch, and the overall techtrade and three of the key parts to watch is the semiconductors you can see it is down .25% and the crane shares china etf, a lot of those are part of the nasdaq 100 trade down about 8% rid now within stocks. the stocks that you want to watch. though some of the worst performers over the course of the past week in this overall technology trade, the nasdaq trade overall have been netflix, no surprise on the earnings disappointment and paypal, and
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then ark the etf, deirdre, by the way is now down roughly 60% from the highs over the course of the last year and it gives you an idea thematically in that trade. we thought it might be an eventful week and the nasdaq on pace with more than 3% of losses this week. dom, thanks so much. an extended interview with janet yellen and christine lagarde on the show me iba iju as ckn st mont your projects done right
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if you thought earnings were busy this week, just wait until next week. we'll get amazon, alphabet, apple, microsoft, meta, d, along with a ton of other big industrials, boeing, cat, gm, 3m, pepsi and a bunch more. >> yeah. we'll be really busy remarkable to see the action, alphabet suffering more than some of the other big tech names and that's certainly something to watch out for next week, carl what we've seen so far in 2022 is the divergence in these big tech names enjoying the same success that we've seen over the last few years so we'll see what happens. some may earn the valuations and
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some, maybe, meta further to fall and come back. >> yeah. there was some discussion that the fed speak had quieted down a bit and the market was zeroing in on some of the good earnings, but today that definitely reversed as we're down 600 still, and the vix above 25 will be something to watch. so get lots of rest over the weekend and brace for next week's data and let's get to the judge and the half ♪ carl, thanks so much welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner front and center, unsettled stocks interest rates weighing on your money as this week comes to a close and we'll debate with the investment committee joining me for the hour, shannon saccocia, degas wright, steve weiss and josh brown lows 620, 1.75% and a decline for the s&p 500, the nasdaq is under pressure today and it's a 200-point loss

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