real, a lot of surprise when he came up with the financing and so i think there's this sense that things just happened really quickly and everyone's trying to figure out what it means. and especially these employees are trying to figure out what it means for them >> good stuff. that's our julia boorstin. she'll be following that all hands on deck meeting, have any reporting coming up in "fast money. i'll see you tomorrow here "fast money" does begin now. right now on "fast," elon musk buying twitter for 54 a share in cash. all-hands meeting this hour. we'll break down the deal and the ripple effects plus a trade up deal on netflix. one of our traders has cut the cord on this streamer. the stock is down another 3% today and over 38% in the last week and later reversal of fortune. stocks stage a big monda afternoon about-face this as alphabet, microsoft start the countdown to big tech earnings can you trust this bounce? we'll debate that. i'm melissa lee live from the nasdaq marketsite here in times square this is "fast money. on the desk tonight here in

studio tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nathan and guy adami. good to be with you all. we begin tonight with that big news out of twitter. the board doing an about-face, accepting elon musk's offer to acquire the company for $44 billion in cash. musk will take twitter private if the deal gains aapproval, and in his first tweet after the announcement he used a rocket, heart, and star emojis plus a statement about the deal former ceo jack dorsey will walk away with almost a billion dollars in cash as part of the purchase twitter holding an all-hands meeting right now at company headquarters we'll bring you any headlines as they cross the tape. shares of the social media platform rising at least 6% on this news. its highest close since november still short of the per share offer on the deal. so does this deal make it to the finish line and what are the ripple effects across the social media space? happened pretty fast, dan. what do you make of it >> it did. i don't think anyone thought it was going to happen this fast, and obviously this is different than a streenlt buyer here for a whole host of regulatory reasons and i think the biggest issue might be just, you know, the

financing. again, he's levering up his tesla shares we brought this up last week if he's leveraged so much, maybe robert frank on the network had this tweet thread earlier today, maybe 50% of his tesla shares are pledged, you know, to do -- the fact of the matter is that's a trillion-dollar stock. it has the potential to go lower. and in the past he has had margin calls so to me i don't think it's a done deal from that standpoint i do think it's interesting that strategics couldn't buy it doesn't seem like there was too many other private equity bids pour it. so what is he getting for $43 billion? i'm not really sure. >> well, it's not cheap. and you're somewhere around 30 times ebidta somewhere around seven times revs and you've got a guy who's going to take hold of a company that doesn't necessarily agree with the 5 billion ad model that's in place right now. certainly tesla's not advertising using advertising anywhere in traditionally. so this is one of the biggest tech deals of all time, though you can't pooh-pooh that and i think certainly social media will maybe never be the

same and i don't know what that means. i just know that this is significant and there really aren't that many other players in the social media space and twitter is clearly one of the most important >> karen, you don't think the deal's going to get done >> no, no, i'm short the stock today. i shorted the stock. and i think that the risk-reward here from owning the stock and hoping the deal closes at 54.20 is so not compelling that it makes me want to be short, which i am so a lot of things can happen. right? the deal can take a long time. that's one the market could get nervous we're going to see earnings on wednesday. or thursday morning, i'm sorry or thursday afternoon. and those could be bad the spread will probably trade a little wider the one thing that really doesn't work in this short is if someone else comes in. however, given how quickly this deal came together makes me think there weren't a lot of other parties. maybe zero that were interested now, anyone else is free to come in if they choose, but it makes me think they should have scoured the landscape a little

bit and they probably didn't come back with much. then there is also what if this deal doesn't close and elon says i'm out and i'm done and i'm getting rid of my stock? the down side in that scenario, meaning the up side for the short, i find so compelling that i'm willing to have the likelihood that it does close in -- that's a most likely scenario >> the down side, let's be clear, could be pre-elon or even lower because now we know that there aren't any buyers out there. the premise is that it trades lower just because maybe it takes a long time. >> takes a long time one thing i do want to point out, though, it does look to be -- we haven't seed the agreement yet but i did read there is no financing kng. that's something the board really was concerned about so elon has said i will not have an out because i can't finance it so i don't know. i think it's not a great own for sure and an interesting short >> what karen is talking about, in the old nfl there was a head coach that said the forward pass, three things can happen

and two of them are bad. interception and completion, the thing being good a completion, potential touchdown. i hear what she's saying and the smart thing to do if you're long the stock is take profits. but they do report thursday before the bell and maybe they'll surprise people to the upside i actually think you can stay long this name and look for a price up to 60 bucks there are a lot of analysts pre-elon musk that had $60 price targets on twitter i think it might go there -- >> you think someone else is there? >> i don't know if anybody else is there >> then it can't go there. >> where's the touchdown >> can't trade higher than that even if they blow -- >> it couldn't trade anywhere if people thought there was someone else there but on its -- i don't think that it's going to trade on its own >> well, that's -- >> what is the touchdown, though it's an interesting conversation, especially -- >> monetize things better. the last couple quarters they've shown signs of actually figuring it out i mean, i understand what you're -- look, the right thing to do, take profits, let this thing play out, maybe it trades back to 47 and we'll see i think it can trade higher from here

>> or brent thiel at jefferies was interviewed on cnbc today and he said he thought things probably looked so bad the board just gave up and that was his takeaway from how quickly this deal came together >> to tim's point, though, in this environment that we're in right now, to see a company like this as not growing, they're not monetizing, they're not growing their user base and their sales are not growing. their sales growth is like half that of snap right now so the fact that this thing is going to trade at seven times sales for this size at a 43 doesn't make a whole lot of sense in this market environment that we're in. so i'm kind of in karen's camp i don't think there were too many other bids. largely because we know that strategic can't buy it for regulatory reasons but again, i think tim made this point really well last week, is if he doesn't buy the ad model and you want to go to more subscription things the business might get smaller before it ever guess bigger and that's why it needs to be retooled in the private market so who knows but they're competing with -- we've talked about this. amazon's ad business is like 30 billion. this is a $6 billion ad business right now. so unless something happens they

might have just gone to the wayside anyway >> well, just to extrapolate, if the ad model goes away for twitter where do those ad dollars go, and is it so small that it's not really of significance to the other players or is it >> i don't think it is look, i think it's significant for snap, and i think there's certainly a dogfight for this. but i think these ad revenues are there and i think they're there for all the platforms that are out there and they're going to continue to grow. i just -- i look at it as the business that they have now while imperfect is one that i think there's plenty of people that believe that there's still optionality in how they begin to monetize and now i'd be more concerned about cannibalizing that model >> just one other thing about this deal. if you've been following the trump spac at all, this is maybe not the death knell, but i don't know, the bells are tolling. because if there is now a free and open public square, public forum, i know trump said he won't be back. >> yes, he said that today

>> but i bet he wouldn't be able to help himself. that wouldn't surprise me at all. just a tweet like "i'm not coming back. that could happen. would that shock you if trump tweets "i'm not coming back" but what does truth social hold as a raison d'etre free open forum i guess with trump on it. but six months after the deal was announced they still haven't filed a proxy. what's up with this deal this is -- something's wrong >> my question is it's interesting to hear all the critics because a lot of people think that free speech equals a playground for the far right, a playground for extremists, a playground for misinformation. but that would actually be shooting yourself in the foot in some respects because you might get those people back but you're going to lose a lot of power users on twitter that reside there and use the platform right now. >> i think that's the concern. and elon musk, wildly successful we don't even need to get into that but is he the arbiter of discourse on the internet? and i think that concerns a lot of people.

and that's certainly where this deal leaves him right now. >> but that should be a concern no matter who's in charge, that whoever is in charge is the arbiter of information it just happens to be -- >> i'm not saying -- exactly it's one person. and right now we don't know what the process is going to be we know they're going to open up the bots, allow editing. he with know they're going to try to make it more open source. but that's the concern >> then the next question is what does this mean if anything for tesla stock, which dan brought up if tesla starts to move lower for whatever reason, what does that mean for this deal? what does it mean for tesla stock? what does it mean for elon musk? there are a lot of things. tesla reported earnings. we talked about it that day. dan said it on this show this was the earnings release we said that people for the last three years have been buying the stock ahead of it was a great release the stock is actually lower than when it started. right? or right around those levels so that's something to think about as well. how many pots can you have his hands in right now in terms of tesla, twitter, space sxx all the other things >> just think about the market we're in

facebook on september 1st, 2021 was a trillion-dollar market cap. that's the same as tesla there wasn't an analyst on the street who rated it anything other than a buy there were very few investors who didn't think it was anything but cheap and was going higher and you know, tesla, to guy's point, they put up that quarter, it was amazing, the margins, the guidance, we talked about it that night but listen, this thing could be a $300 billion accident waiting to happen because all you have to do is look at the rest of the nasdaq and see it. some of your favorite social names. you know, google this morning was down almost 20% from its all-time highs made just a couple months ago. my point is if this stock were to go down precipitously for any reason, that deal could be -- you know, could not be such an easy thing i'll just say the last thing if he's leveraging all of his stock in tesla to buy this company, they should buy it with tesla. okay at least the shareholders have the up side. because they do have all the down side if for any reason there are margin calls in a difficult situation if this stock were to be cut in half >> but convert to a tesla stock

deal -- >> why not >> i'm not saying -- >> you about think about this. if you're a tesla shareholder and that stock goes down and he's got margin calls that means the bank that loaned him the money has to sell the stock. and we saw this a couple months ago when he tweeted out hey, smi sell some stock to pay taxes and what happened to the stock it went down 20% from an all-time high. so to he m i don't -- listen, you know me. >> elon musk has used twitter as a platform for marketing the company. >> it's not the craziest idea. >> salesforce wanted to buy it >> it's not crazy. i just want to make sure i understand it. then they wouldn't have debt they'd just be issuing shares effectively at this price. >> he bought solar city. >> we'll see >> let's brink in top-ranked tech analyst mark mahaney. evercore what's your reaction to this deal and how does this impact the space you cover? >> well, it's surprising that it closed so quickly. but clearly the board was

convinced that there was -- that funding was secured. there weren't any other bidders, as karen pointed out and they probably weren't that confident in their ability to deliver their 2023 financial goals which i and other people have been somewhat skeptical about. and they probably also realized that markets were in a bear market, and it's kind of hard to see the growth equities coming back quickly so the path of least resistance was to agree to the bid even though it was a first bid and really not even to negotiate on, just to agree to it. to me it's a little bit like when linkedin sold to microsoft. it was a pretty quick deal and i guess they just didn't feel like they could get the stock above 54.20 on their own in the next year pull the plug, close the deal. i'm just surprised it happened so quickly but it's done >> hey, mark it's tim what do you think happens to this business from a guy who self-proclaimed doesn't believe in it? >> i agree with what dan just said a few minutes ago, which is

a little bit of a surprise but i think he may be dead right advertising business in a be going south before it recovers at twitter there are two customers of twitter here, there are the consumers, all of us and then the marketers, they're the people who spent $5 billion last year, which is a decent chunk of change, on the twitter ad platform musk hasn't mentioned anything about some of the product innovations that marketers have been looking for that this current management team has been focused on if anything he's talked about a subscription model that our survey work suggests maybe 13% of twitter users are really interested in. if you're an advertiser, if you're a marketer that's on twitter now, what are you gowing going to do? you're probably going to be shuffling to some other platforms, reddit, tiktok, facebook, snapchat my guest is twitter ad revenues first go down. i doubt that causes any funding problems or financial problems for musk but i think those ad dollars are going to go down and those dollars are going to go to other platforms. >> where do they -- i mean, which platforms do you think, mark and also, the 13%, maybe the 13% is the audience you actually want to show your ads to

>> that could be i like that point, melissa yes, i'm sorry i've done survey work on twitter for i don't know, eight years or something like that. every six months by the way, i've never seen content moderation as i amajor key issue for users. i don't think putting in more or less moderation is going to dramatically expand the user base but i think a lot of the initiatives that musk has talked about, editing of tweets, removing some of the character limits, i think there are some basic user-friendly steps that he and hopefully his new management team can take to make the service more friendly for users. i think good product innovation has been an issue at twitter for years. subscription business, though, i just think it's a small percentage of people who really want to pay. and yes, those are probably the most attractive targets for advertisers, so there would be some cannibalization there and finally in terms of where the ad budgets would go to, i think twitter's largely been an experimental ad buy. i can't imagine a marketer would go first in on twitter and then buy google or facebook so my guess is those dollars

would kind of shimmy back, move back toward facebook, google but also to reddit, tiktok and snap. i think there's a couple of different small winners from this >> mark, great to get your thoughts thank you. >> thanks, melissa >> mark mahaney, evercore isi. guy, do you think there's any read-through to the other social media names in terms of this business -- basically mark was saying that the board said you know what, we can't do it, you take it. >> snap maybe. dan can speak to snap. pinterest, i guess you've got to put them out there the one that's going to be fascinating this week is facebook think about a stock that's been cut in half from its all-time high the level that stock traded to, the market cap it had, to cut a stock like that in half over the course of 3 1/2, 4 months is remarkable so i think we're going to find out a lot more about the entire space when facebook reports. >> and if you think about facebook over the last quarters, their ad growth has been staggering think of the tailwind that's going on in the digital ad space. think about what google and facebook and to some lesser extent then tiktok and snap and

others are fighting over but facebook still dominates and this is what's interesting about this if anything, you'd think that this would either put a bright light on just how strong that ad business is at facebook, unless of course as guy says there's something that we don't know the market's been trading facebook like this for multiple quarters, though and it's going to come back to they are still in the sweet spot of really advertising today and they are -- i don't see that being given up >> elon musk is a very smart individual, correct? >> true. >> yes >> i wouldn't be surprised if this thing goes back to being a publicly traded company within -- >> that could happen >> and thank you, morgan stanley, who lend me the money you're now the lead underwriter. >> that could happen i mean, it's elon. anything can happen. >> all right let's take a look at this live picture at twitter headquarters in san francisco the company's currently holding an all-hands meeting as we speak. ceo parag agrawal telling employees the company will continue to operate normally

the chairman saying the board decided musk's offer represented best value for shareholders. we'll bring you any other headlines as they cross. coming up, stocks staging a major reversal in today's session. the dow erasing a nearly 500-point loss, and there are a few parts of the market catching our traders' eyes. we are digging into the moves in just a few but first, no fix for netflix? shares continue to drop. one of our traders is calling it quits on this one. the details on the trade, next wee t e te wn as'vgothlasthe"ft money" returns alright, so...cordless headphones, you can watch movies through your phone? and y'all got electric cars?

yeah. the future is crunk! (laughs) anything else you wanna know? is the hype too much? am i ready? i can't tell you everything. but if you want to make history, you gotta call your own shots. we going to the league! ♪ music ♪ ♪ dream, dream when you're feeling blue ♪ ♪ dream, dream that's the thing to do ♪ ♪ music ♪ when you see value in all directions, you add value in all directions. accenture. let there be change.

this is xfinity rewards. our way of saying thanks, with rewards for the whole family! from epic trips... to the original jurassic park... on us. join over 3 million members and start enjoying rewards like these, and so much more in the xfinity app! and check out jurassic world: dominion, in theaters june 10th. this is elodia. she's a recording artist. 1 of 10 million people that comcast has connected to affordable internet in the last 10 years. and this is emmanuel, a future recording artist, and one of the millions of students we're connecting throughout the next 10. through projectup, comcast is committing $1 billion so millions more students, past...

and present, can continue to get the tools they need to build a future of unlimited possibilities. welcome back to "fast money. we've got a trade update for you. netflix shares in a freefall after the company's earnings nightmare last week. karen sees stranger things ahead, selling her entire stake today. so was this decision cake? explain yourself, lady whistledown. >> oh, my goodness lady whistledown >> just a tiny bit of history, i've liked the product for a long, long time. never owned the stock until last quarter, when they missed. the stock went from i don't know, high 500s to under 400, where i dipped my toe in the water. this quarter happens, i lose half that toe. i wait three days, as we talked about, on the third day, which is friday. i bought another toe and a half, let's call it. so i have two toes in.

thought about it a lot over the weekend. spent some time thinking about it more and decided, you know what if i didn't own any i would have a lot more clarity thinking about this, so let's not own any. i sold it today, thinking that we're going to see some more streaming earnings coming up we're going to see paramount on the 3rd. we're going to see disney on the 11th and i feel like regardless of how -- if paramount puts up great numbers, people are going to think oh, competition is really getting to netflix. if paramount puts up terrible numbers, people will think wow, the whole streaming business is off. i feel like just the filter now is all negative for netflix. it's not expensive here, but the pendulum could swing further so i decided i'll be all out for now and just watch >> what are you doing with your toe? >> so my toe, i've lost a toe here too and i think karen and i dipped our toe in that same difficult water, around the same time. to me i'm not ready to say that that same tailwind -- the death

of linear tv and what was going to be the rising boat that reese hastings has cold us is raising all other boats, rising tide all other boats. i also think geopolitical factors. i think there's some dynamics around covid and going forward i think the lack of a linear move higher in subs is -- should not be something that bothers us the valuation here is something that i think makes sense what happened to all this unique content they were creating what happened to all these people that were saying this is not about a conduit, this is not a pipe, this is actually a content company? they've gone very quiet here i'm not ready to -- karen may be right. she's going to be the person with more toes than me potentially in another couple weeks. >> the content is not enough it's not enough good content we made three netflix puns >> since when? and again, i hear you. i totally hear that. >> the co-ceo said we need a "bridgerton" every single month. we need hits more frequently and hits more frequently equals

more money spent >> 68% move since november, when everybody -- you know, you can flip the coin. all the negativity, that was all the endorsements and ringing just enthusiasm about the stock 4 1/2, 5 months ago. so clearly things have changed but how much of the change, 70% says a lot i'll say this. disney now at 20 times next year's numbers, about as cheap as it's been in a while and earnings, to karen's point, on may 11th to me that's how you trade this netflix move >> p/e is 20 now >> and three times -- i think it's less. >> here's the thing. you all lost your minds if you guys don't think that this stock going from 700 in mid november to 200 and not done going down is something that you want to extrapolate to some other story. so bringing that back to the a block, okay? this was a cult stock. it was one of the first meme stocks it's been around, it's been doing this, defying all of those bear cases and reed hastings had to redefine this company and pivot and do things over -- as long as we've been doing the show, right? we've been talking about this. and there's been really smart

investors have been in carl icahn his friend ackman. i mean, everybody. >> carl made a bunch of money on it >> bill ackman lost a foot >> what i'm saying is this is a market moment when netflix, which was the poster child -- the meme stock of the post-financial crisis market that we have been in has literally just lost 70% and it's not done going down. and you just sold it after three days i'm not criticizing. what i'm saying is means it's not done and you've really got to start thinking about some other names that might be able to do this in your portfolio >> i hear what you're saying why does it mean it's not done i feel like we've seen this crescendo of a lot of different stocks what makes this whole market move feel so painful for a lot of our audience and people on this desk is we're looking at stocks that are down 60% to 80%. the fact netflix is down what is it, 80% -- >> but's this the first time we have multiple $100 billion market caps doing this since facebook turned around since netflix turned around. >> it's a market story

all the other crap has been selling off for a year, year and a half know what i mean and now we're getting to the stories where the valuations -- those people who were wrong on the way up like me, now they care >> why isn't it a great time to own a company that's not expensive -- >> what's your time horizon? >> well, with the markets dislocated and again, this is the kind of environment -- i totally agree look, i don't feel great about where the market sits. and it was a nice recovery we're going to have a market block coming up later in the show but i do think something like a netflix, and maybe even a facebook, unless you think these companies have businesses that are totally broken, this isn't a time to throw them out it's actually a time to be nibbling on them when the market is absolutely throwing them out. >> we are getting started on "fast money. here's what's coming up next >> announcer: a major reversal on wall street stocks rally to close in the green. but which market moves should you keep an eye on the traders break it down, next. plus, biotech bounceback the group showing signs of life after a rough week

so is this trade the cure for your portfolio the details ahead. you're watching "fast money. live from the nasdaq marketsite in times square. we're back right after this. (vo) some bonds last a lifetime. some bonds inspire confidence, and some you grow to rely on. these are the bonds worth investing in. for over 50 years, pimco has reinvented fixed income to create opportunities for investors in every market environment. so, no matter what happens you can build the bonds that mean the most to you. pimco, a global leader in active fixed income.

welcome back to "fast money. markets staging a major rebound today with the dow erasing nearly 500-point loss to end the day up almost 240 points the s&p and nasdaq also rallying into the close mega cap tech leading the gains as we count down to this huge earnings week. alphabet and microsoft jumping more than 2% amazon and meta rising more than 1% but it wasn't all good news. big banks continuing to trade under pressure with wells fargo dropping more than a percent the stock, which had been

leading the sector all year, is down more than 5% this month and take a look at the plunge in oil prices wti crude dropping nearly 3% taking the rest of the energy sector along with it every member of the oih was down today with schlumberger putting in its worst day since october 2020 what is the message the market is telling us, guy >> not sure. volatility traded north of 30. i think a lot of of what you saw today is classic -- those countertrend rallies we've seen the last 3 1/2, 4 months i think this is exactly it today. i think the market's struggling with what do interest rates mean, what does the yield curve mean the bond market volatility is staggering to me i think the bond market's broken i'll say this. if you start doing the math, i still think 4,000 in the s&p is a foregone conclusion. in the form of $230 worth of earnings, 17 1/2 multiple, which is reasonable. that gets you to 4,000 there is a shot we overshoot to the down side from there >> on top of all this things are getting worse in china on the covid front. two of the wealthiest cities are basically in lockdown or on the

verge of lockdown, shanghai and beijing. >> yeah, i think the numbers we're going to get out of china for april are going to be significantly worse than what we've seen different companies are giving us some insight. we'll get china pmi later in the week this could be our a block or discussion or b block discussion in tech. i'm not saying yield bonds are moving higher but i think we've priced in a lot of fed is it peak fed i don't know but this is very supportive at some point to make a cap check and back to the banks, we've had now almost two weeks, ten days to digest bank earnings and i think first of all if you look at bank earnings over the last six quarters five of those six quarters it took them two weeks to digest their earnings and then you saw anywhere from a 12 to 24% move in the banks i think there's your chart and environments where at different times we were struggling with where yields are. if you look at theearnings power of these banks, karen talks about that higher rates ultimately are -- i know we look at 2s 10s all the time but these

banks are making more money. and i know we all talked about credit but if you look at the high yield credit spreads, and i know we talked about the h.y.g., they really haven't moved yet. i think banks are worth looking at and i do think we've priced in peak fed and i think this is good for i.t >> our next guest says stocks aren't oversold just yet it's time to go off the charts with chris teagueus. what do you see for stocks right now? >> i think it's very tempting to look the athese intraday reversals and believe some good durable rally is starting but i'm more skeptical of that view. as we kind of laid out this morning i'm just not convinced we're at some deep oversold or capitulative moment. even today sitting with 40%, 45% of stocks above their 50-day moving average on the s&p. that's hardly a flush. i want to see something in the 15% or 20% range to even begin to entertain the idea of a good oversold condition here.

i think on any rally, circle this 4400 area that's the declining 50-day moving average i think it's going to be difficult to do a lot better than that. when i look within the options market for evidence of fear call ratios still remain pretty benign you've got some spike in put calls on friday. but not in that 99th percentile range we're looking for. and even when you kind of smooth the data out over a week or two weeks, looking at the ten-day average of put calls, those are still way too benign in terms of the type of anxiety that you want to see at or near a low i don't think we're really there internals with price i don't think the sentiment is there. you mentioned the semis. i recognize the semis are down a lot. semis are down something like 25 from the highs decent reversal today. but remember, in the pre-q.e. regime down 25 was really only about halfway of what a cyclical group would correct. semis from 95 to 2000, the best

five-year run for semis ever, came in 0% twice right? cyclical groups when they go down tend to go down closer to 40 or 50, not 20 or 25 i'm skeptical of bounces in semis. i'm skeptical of bounces in the qqqs and i think 4400 on the s&p's about as good as you can do on a rally. so what can we own here? i do think some of the weaker hands have capitulated or are close to energy. and you see that in the flows. if you look at the xle flows, there's good support in them i've called 66 to 68 range a three-month average of flows looks pretty liquid eighted here you've seen a lot of weak hands retire positions over the last few days that's interesting to me from a contrarian perspective one name in particular, pioneer, pxd, really back to some major support. 215, we bounced right off that today. i think it's a decent area to think of some washed out energy stocks but big picture, mel, i think this market's not oversold i don't think there's enough anxiety or fear out there. i think people are largely still

pretty complacent. i'm steptical of bounces >> just to clarify, chris, in terms of wanting to see sort of a 20% flush, that's from highs on the s&p that's another 10% or so >> yeah. today we have s&p i think at the max was down something like 13 qqqs was down closer to 20 maybe we're halfway there. maybe we're 60% of the way there. i'm not convinced we're the full way. and i think in particular look at that put-call data. when you're at or near a agood low, you're going to see big anxiety in the options market. we never have that in late february and we really haven't had that thus far over the last several days >> chris, good to see you. thank you. chris verrone of strategas what do you think of his forecast >> we all look at the vix and he's talking about the put-call ratio. and that gets us to the vix. i am surprised it's here guy was talking about today on our call of midday i'd like to see a big flush out

of the market and so the vix being much higher as another buy signal here it's sort of a no man's land >> this might surprise you but i agree with almost everything that chris verrone just said listen, obviously i'm a very damaged market participant here. i have a lot of scar tissue going back to the post dotcom, you know, protracted bear market but today's action was so bearish. i know you're all excited because we bounced a bit and we had that reversal and whatever to see the banks act the way they did based on what tim just said, the action has been since their earnings, really all year long to see oil crater the way it did and stocks like schlumberger down 10% to see the material stocks act that way that felt like something that i was really familiar with back in '01 and '02 and trying to play for that one step forward, two or three steps back in a bear market that's what today felt like. >> tim said before that the markets have priced in a lot of fed. have they priced in a possibility of a recession or is that what we're trying to grapple with right now >> i think the bond market has

priced in a lot of fed i'm not going to speak economics. i say it all the time. i'm not smart enough or humorless enough to be an economist. but i'll say this. i think the bond markets priced in the fed i don't think the stock market has at all i think that's what we're struggling with. dan's point about schlumberger, it's amazing that the valuation that that stock trades at, to move down 10% in a day is incredible oih in the course of four trading days traded down almost 20%. and none of those stocks are particularly expensive so there's something broken out there, just haven't figured it out there. >> rate counts up 58%. exxon reports on friday. i'll say this, they've never been more financially disciplined. they have 8 billion in upstream earnings they have ex-poerkz to chemicals. highly free cash flow regenerative i aagree with what chris said about that the weak hands are out of the energy space fallen 68% in three days these companies are well position >> one of the biggest names in big tech microsoft on deck to report earnings after the bell tomorrow options betting that could be a

trade higher mike khouw joins us. >> we saw microsoft trade above anch options today implying a move of about 6% or so by the end of the week. that's significantly higher than the 3 1/2% that the company has averaged over the course of the last eight quarters and the most active options were the weekly 300 strike calls, nearly 22,000 of those traded for about 1.23 apiece and buyers of those are obviously betting microsoft is going to trade higher. quick point, the last two quarters the stock did actually rally, close to 7% in the three days that followed earnings. and that could be what they're betting on but i would point out that kind of like what we were just hearing all the panelists saying, i think when we look at the options markets it's a little premature to get too ecstatic at this point i'd like to see the vix up well into the 30s before i think it's evidence of a washout. >> mike, thanks. mike khouw, more "options action" tune in to the show 5:30 on friday. can you believe this bounce?

we're digging into that trade next plus verizon, a real buzz kyl in today's session. we'll tell you what had investors hanging up on this trade. tus.ston" s when "fa mey rern

welcome back to "fast money. biotech seeing some healthy gains today. the xpi biotech etf popping more than 2%, rebounding from its worst week since january so is this trade in recovery let's get to meg tirrell for more on biotech's move higher. hey, meg >> hey, mel. well, it's really interesting if you look at biotech today it's really the names that had been the most beaten down that are actually doing among the best today. you're seeing the xbi etf up more than 2% compared with just less than 1% for the ibb the ibb is bigger cap names that influence the etf most of all whereas it's smaller and mid-caps for the xbi and you can see over the past two days the xbi has outperformed the broader market but that's bucking the trend it's been showing for the last year when it's been really terribly beaten down one of the things really driving sentiment into these names is a clinical trial success, something biotech have not been seeing enough of over the past year from a company called

encarta. this is a very small company about a $250 million market cap. before it more than doubled in trading today on this clinical trial's success in cancer. very early data. we hope to see more pretty soon toward the end of the year but that really driving that stock higher and also just kind of driving sentiment in a lot of more beaten-down biotech names higher other winners you saw today, moderna, that's been beaten down a lot, although it's a much different profile company. biontech same story. intelia therapeutics, which is working in crispr, as well biotech investors hoping for more about clinical trial data like this one. mel. >> meg, thanks meg tr rell. guy, where's the trade here? >> amgen, you look at amgen the second largest holding in ibb i think it's about % behind moderna at 9%. within a whisper of its all-time high we made in the summer of 2020 they report i believe wednesday after the bell you can still make a very compelling case on valuation i think they're going to blow

through those prior all-time highs. amgen is the play. and if you want to sort of spread your chips ibb. >> in the ibb it's worth pointing out that moderna and biogen are responsible for 70% of the pain you've had in that index. again, at one point moderna was close to 8% of the ibb biogen's been a disaster since announcing their controversial alzheimer's. if you look at ibb amgen and gilead have been stalwarts and those are balance sheets that in this environment are not high-flying biotech stocks, they're actually very conservative companies >> coming up, will april showers bring may flowers for bitcoin? after a double-digit drop this month. we'll break down what is next for crypto but first verizon shares dropping today what is behind this tradlor?e we the trade on that name and more right after this break ♪ i want ♪ (production manager) ♪ i want the whole world ♪ (supervisor) ♪ i want to lock it all up in my pocket. ♪ (ceo) ♪ i want today. ♪ ♪ i want tomorrow. ♪

(warehouse worker) ♪ presents and prizes and sweets and surprises... ♪ (driver) ♪ of all shapes and sizes. ♪ (dispatch) ♪ i want it noooooow! ♪ (vo) t-mobile for business has 5g that's ready right now. what if you were a global bank who wanted to supercharge your audit system? so you tap ibm to un-silo your data. and start crunching a year's worth of transactions against thousands of compliance controls with the help of ai. now you're making smarter decisions faster. operating costs are lower. and everyone from your auditors to your bankers feels like a million bucks. let's create smarter ways of putting your data to work. ibm. let's create

when hurting feet make you want to stop, it's dr. scholl's time. our custom fit orthotics use foot mapping technology to give you personalized support, for all-day pain relief. find your relief in store or online.

welcome back to "fast money. can you hear me now? shares of verizon dropping analysts at goldman sachs downgrading the communications company to a neutral lowering their 12-month price target from 1 to 55. this of course after earnings and guidance which really disappoint that sort of set off this decline. and dan, you're flagging this. >> just surprising price action for a company or stock that has a 5% dividend yoeld.

in a place where consumer staples are doing really well and people are not so concerned about those valuations to me if you're looking for defensive, this has obviously been the age-old one of them that doesn't act particularly well and for investors to kind of hit the sell button the way they did over the last three days is really surprising to me. >> best thing about at&t, those commercials number one, and collectively at&t and verizon where hope goes to die in both those names. we've said for a while, avoid them, dan nathan but you want to play in the deep end of the pool. t-mobile reports this week bouncing off that recent low i think tmus is the place to be. >> tim's got at&t. >> yeah, i've died there too tough show for me. it's hard to like verizon and at&t in an environment where you've got maybe a 3% two-year note this was a yield play. we say this on this show all the time and my arguments in favorite of at&t were never because of the dip we say this, buying a stock for a dividend yield could be gone in one day and that's something i think is very important to

understand but i do think the fiscal discipline and really unwinding a very bad day at at&t some of the parts the worse. >> coming up could bitcoin's move higher be tied to rate hikes? you should be watching much more "fast money" in two. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

make fitness routine with pure protein high protein. low sugar. taste great. high protein, low sugar.. so good high protein, low sugar, mmm birthday cake and for a cheesy crunch, try pure protein snacks.

as a business owner, your bottom line and for a cheesy crunch, is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts... saving you up to $500 a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities.™

welcome back to "fast money. check out the crypto comeback. bitcoin and ethereum finishing in the green after a rough start to the day and look how similarly these two cryptocurrencies have traded with the nasdaq 100 this month what was supposed to be a store of value is now trading like a tech stock why the sudden shift in sentiment? let's bring in simplify asset management ceo and co-founder paul kim to break it down. paul, great to have you on >> thank you for having me yes, great question. and i agree with you completely. it's trading like a tech stock because we're all essentially waiting for the fed to come out and actually lift rates as they've been telegraphing for months, and then most importantly i think there's a lot of earnings coming through clearly the markets are struggling the tech sector broadly but bitcoin which trades essentially like the nasdaq in the past few months is waiting for a catalyst we're all off the highs and we're just waiting for the next leg higher or lower, but it's

really, again, all eyes on the fed right now. >> so what is your positioning in bitcoin right now and are you just holding on to it or are you cycling out of it because there are so many unknowns as you outlined >> so we don't actively trade bitcoin. we're much more of a strategic investor it's in one of our etfs where we invested as a partial investment for advisers to get off zero and i think that's okay. much of the etf world has been built around passively investing in exposures and bitcoin at 1.8 trillion, or crypto broadly at 1.8 trillion means it's an investable asset class. it's historically done very well and right now it looks a lot like tech exposures. but clearly when the right catalysts come it could go back to being more of a flight to safety or a gold 2.0 but for now it looks like the nasdaq 100 >> so what's your biggest position right now, paul >> our largest position is basically bitcoin. i mean, that's the biggest

megacap in that space. and again, it's a very easy exposure to put on and from our platform perspective we offer a bunch of different betas including u.s. large caps, down to technology and again, this is a very important -- increasingly important beta for the adviser community out there. >> paul, great to get your thoughts it you so much for coming on appreciate it. >> thank you so much >> paul kim. karen, what do you make of bitcoin here we've certainly seen the nft market cool off. activity there has gone way down >> right i think as the institutional adoption of bitcoin has evolved to be pretty meaningful, wherever we see tough markets we see all assets correlate to one. right? that just happens. as people just pare down on everything they want to take risk off and i think that's what's happening here >> so it's not a bitcoin-specific sort of story at this point? >> i feel like bitcoin's the most liquid. it's the proxy for the space >> yeah. dan? >> it's funny. when you see those comparisons to like how growth tech stocks, i think ethereum, and i say to

myself okay, you might not believe in d-5 but you might believe in a lot of the web 3 stuff as it relates to communities and nft ands that sort of thing. that's what i would say is interesting, all those projects being built on that. the bitcoin stuff is really weird. it does seem that it's a proxy for global monetary this and -- it's above my pay grade. it just is you know what i mean eth to me if you want to make that tech stock thing and leg into that, we have this catalyst coming up, this proof of work, proof of stake and that should happen in the back half of this year and that should give that some support when you see a pullback and it does seem like it's going to pull back a little bit. >> i don't think it's coincidence bitcoin topped out when the fed started to be responsible, when they changed course in november the huge bulkhead for crypto will be if the fed blinks because the market sells off or something happens, that's the catalyst for bitcoin to probably take out the all-time highs. >> it's interesting, but gold

finally caught some legs when the fed really went into overdrive. and i know paul talked about he wasn't necessarily saying store of value one of the other dynamics we've discussed on this desk is that megacap tech stocks almost became the treasury market for crypto players where they were parking cash and i think there's certainly something to be said about some of the price actions we've seen as folks have had to deal with tax losses and/or just dealing with the volatility. >> up next, final trades flexshares are carefully constructed. to go beyond ordinary etfs. and strengthen client confidence in you. before investing consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully.

♪ ♪ i came, i saw, i conquered. (all): hail, caesar! pssst caesar! julius! dude, you should really check in with your team on ringcentral. i was thinking like... oh hi, caesar. we were just talking about you. ha ha ha. yeah, you should probably get out of here. not good. ♪ ♪ ♪ ringcentral ♪ cal: our confident forever plan is possible with a cfp® professional. a cfp® professional can help you build a complete financial plan. visit letsmakeaplan.org to find your cfp® professional. ♪♪ [ kimberly ] before clearchoice, my dental health

was so bad i would be in a lot of pain. i was unable to eat. it was very hard. kimberly came to clearchoice with a bunch of missing teeth, struggling with pain, with dental disease. clearchoice dental implants solved her dental issues. [ kimberly ] i feel so much better. i feel energized to go outside and play with my daughter. i can ate anything. like, i don't have to worry. clearchoice changed my life.

there's always a bull market somewhere and i spotted one that might be worth watching. plus my exclusive with whirlpool. watch or listen live on the cnbc app. welcome back to "fast money. some more headlines out of twitter all-hands meeting. ceo par ag agrawal saying there are currently no plans for layoffs after the musk deal. the chairman saying "a big part of this merger agreement is ensuring operative continuity, ensuring this management team and parag can continue." in response to a question about whether donald trump will be allowed back on the platform agrawal also said the company will speak with musk about the direction of the site although we do know that donald trump has told joe kernan that he will not return to twitter. we'll see what happens time now for the final trade here let's go around the horn tim seymour. >> let's go to the energy sector again. i talked about exxon earlier i do think you have a case here

when you look at the financial discipline there actually could be asset sales, there could be a $10 billion buyback. exxon to me on the sell-off looks very interesting >> karen >> so now that we get into earnings season, big tech earnings this week, and so for mow google is my biggest position they report tomorrow after the bell very interested to hear how it's going top i think it will also be interesting for facebook, which is later in the week >> dan >> you know, it's really nice to see meg tirrell in happier times reporting on her space, right? and xbi is so banged up. and the mid-cap and the small cap, that seems to be the place to be. maybe you just have so bad that it's good in xbi >> she didn't say vaccine or covid once although she did say moderna but she didn't say covid >> right or wrong? we're all in agreement on that one. next, celtics tonight. do the nets pull it out just for the fans in brooklyn yes or no. >> yes >> i think they get swept.

which is unfortunate for net fans but you don't play in new york anyway amgen reports this week. i like amgn, melms >> fun to be all here together in house thanks for watching "fast. see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 for more "fast. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica other people make friends and i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is to educate and teach you and call me at iphone phone -- at