tv Fast Money CNBC April 27, 2022 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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>> a bit better, a lot of selling has happened in the last three, four days i'm not saying all of it is done that does it for us. "fast money" is now. solveness in the back half of the first quarter, we'll go inside the numbers. will 2022 go down as the year we hit social streaming, and the market impact of those stocks tether to the digital
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do domain this is "fast money. on the desk tonight, we start off with an earnings alert on meta platforms >> well, melissa, the company grew actual users. that's up from 2.91 billion. it was slightly lower than anticipated. i did speak to meta cfo, who noted it was sequential growth in every region, except europe, which was, of course, impacted by the war and shuttered
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operations in russia in terms of second quarter gui guidance tell mess that revenue would have been higher, and they do expect in the second quarter to not only have that in the impact, but further foreign exchange headwinds as well but longer term, reels are a great opportunity for monetization of course, we will hear much more on the call that just started a minute ago >> julia, thank you, up 16.5%, but the setup is the stock was down more than 40% since it reported its last quarter. karen, what did you make of this
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quarter? >> thank god, i think. i thought the tiniest miss, but with the stock at this level, expectations were clearly looking for something, especially heels of alphabet last night, and facebook trading down, what what it was today i thought it was good, especially in the context of this was a 13 p.e. stock earlier today. not even including the cash, so that's an extraordinarily cheap -- i don't even know -- the ebitda number is maybe eight or nine. that's ridiculously cheap for a company like this. any hint of, okay, things aren't falling apart was met with a good reaction. i always like listening to the call, because sometimes there's nu nuance, sometimes they drop the bombs, so i don't want to say the worst is over for sure, but i'm very pleased with the numb
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ers i think a lot of this beat is really revenue experiences. if you look at the numbers, they came in significantly less we'll get more information on that before we see the after-hours move, you can't have bought facebook at the levels all the way back in october 2017 if you think about it, and you think about where the revenue growth was year over year, and this is the slowest growth since they ipo'd, we digested this, expected this. it's kind of a relief when we've been dealing with netflix. we had some sense in the last quarter where they had contraction, so all of these company that have a core platform and business that's not only growing, but thank goodness it didn't contract today reality is still very distant
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julia talk about the reels business, and we were talking about that where small business and thing about where their core advertiser base is, and very good for them. i do think this is something to be excited about. >> the concern about reels is it was cannibalizing times spent on other feeds that were better monet monetized karen had mentioned the conference call is usually where anything can happen. we've seen this before and here, hearing that the back half of the first quarter was really impacted by war, that it's going to continue to see fx exchange there's still a lot of questions in my mind, at least, about the quality, the nuance of that guide. >> i think this is a relief rally, same thing that everyone else was saying. retch growth is the slowest since the ipo, this is a company that 97% of retches is ad
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generated. if reels is not monetizing the correct amount, or as much as other segments, and that's the future, then that's a problem. this is you called it, it was down 45%, so this is a bounce that probably on a technical level was due. in the call, to karen's point, are we going to heard anything about the ad track changes are we going to hear anything about that that's what really put a lit on the stock. the problem is we don't know where user growth is growing they had a one-off year. the company told us the metaverse will take years and cost billions. i don't know what the strategy is, and i don't know what the benchmark for success is as well so, yes, it's a great little bounceback this is a rerally, but i don't think it's more than anything than that.
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>> this is not a high flying, high multiple tech stock here. how are you feeling about meta >> i think the biggest problem when you think about earnings, let's say you're taking the price to earnings, you have a certain amount of certainty around the earnings. if there's not any by plan around it, you have some risk to earnings you don't have the top-line expansion that you were hoping for you. i think that's reflects the saturation, the level of market control this company has, and that's a problem, right? it really raises the ire of regulators we're already seeing that in europe, and i think that's a real risk to the bits long term. >> i understand what you're saying, clearly -- they've been in positions before where they need to pivot meaningfully they've been able to do it
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these expenses that they have sort of guided toward, remember, it's so strong that they can afford these imagine what it would be without them that would be extraordinary. it's never traded as this enterprise value, the ebitda to your point, the stock handled traded here for five years the company is so much more profitable i understand the flip side of that argument is yes, but it's growing so much more slowly. >> with the five-year mark, though, five years ago, would you look at the potential growth that facebook was looking at and think that it was as good as the moment in time that is now five years out. >> of course not your point is that the saturation in the core platform is part of the concern it's the same saturation we're digesting, and ultimately, though, karen's point is a very good one forget growth at a reasonable price, yes, 6% quarter over quarter growth, bus tape think
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of the digit at ad growth. boy, facebook and google are so out there, so ahead of everyone. i know there are headwinds from the economy potential coming i know advertisers pull back a little bit, but where else are they going to go i think this is where you get to with facebook:i'm not dying to own this stock guy doesn't necessarily -- i think he hates the company, i think is what he might say, but he doesn't necessarily hate the stock. it's heart to hate the stock facebook being treated like a high multiple tech, but it's not. >> let's bring in gene muenster. what do you think of this bounce >> i'm relieved. loup is a shareholder, the 2 billion dau number, remember
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they had a headwind related to eastern europe the dau number, that's the core value ultimately, which facebook has. we know that that's the reason elon musk bought twitter he could have started his own social network, but getting those connection in place is critically important so maintaining that in the face of tiktok is strong evidence that this network also, rpu was up 4% year over year as we think about the hand-off of stories to reels, to this competitor to tiktok, and the monetization piece, they're made progress in terms of making more money from each user there are two pieces that were more encouraging around this unfortunately for investors, they are still going to hear a lot about tiktok from their people around them, potential use tiktok themselves a lot, and
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i think that some of that concern is not going to go away on this print. we're going to fast-forward three months and we'll be on pins and needles to guess what that number is, but tonight we can rest tonight knowing that network is intact. >> gene, when the company tells us the ad tracking changes will cost or potential could cost $10 billion in 2022, and that's coupled with who knows how many billions for metaverse ramp up from there, even though this was a great relief rally, and you mirrored that sentiment, do you think there's too much aggray ae for a person who's not a believer to invest right now >> i think you have to take into consideration what the valuation is some of the thoughts that karen
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all -- everything you said is absolutely true. it's also true, assuming they can hit that number for next year, which i think is doable, it's trading now at 14 times when you think about gray areas, i think about it in the context of valuation and relative to the opportunity. so, yes, those two factors, iefa and navigating building their own tracking platform, that would be a piece to tiktok, but also there's a sense of owning a company that essentially make a shot at the metaverse. i'm a believer of the metaverse. i've been pretty vocal it's a world i don't want to be any part of it, because i think it will consume more and more of our time as an investor, this is a segment that will continue to gain attention in the years to come so, steve, putting it together, i think it falls more into a green area than a gray area from
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my perspective to get a shot at the metaverse in a critical company, that combination usually doesn't line up very often. >> thank you for being on, gene. i agree with almost everything you said what is the right multiple >> so, we're -- let me jump forward six months from now, once recession is priced in. i think it will impact all big tech, but i think this should trade generally at what earnings growth should be at. that should be somewhere in the 18 to 22% range. >> you don't think recession is priced into big-cap tech that wasn't pricing in the recessional all? >> no, i think we'll get this relief, the numbers will be strong
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i think investors will quickly shift their attention to what happens in the june quarter and september quarters i vividly remember as an analyst, in the pulpbacking with the financial recession, is the feeling everything is going great with the companies, but there's something out there that could really slow things down. in fact, that does happen. i think we still haven't hit the bottom here. it's going to be bumpy across the board for all big tech once the numbers starts to get ugly, say in q3, q4, once companies start talking about it, from my perspective, that's where the bottom is. i want to end on a good note that sets up 2023, i think will be a solid year. i think you need to be positioned in these companies, exiting this year, in anticipation may i dare say a great year for tech in 2023. >> a silver lining to a
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rece recession. gene, thank you. let's get to qualcomm. jon fortt has been digging into the numbers. >> there's a cupping things to pay attention to one is qualcomm's story on handsets themselves, qualcomm did particularly well. in large part that was samsung's galaxy s-22. they have 75% share, their chips in that fine versus 40% of the s1 a year ago. i spoke to him before the call, and this speaks to qualcomm's ability to make better chips in the past samsung used their own chips.
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apple is planning to make more of its own chips, and he's arguing they'll beat them out. i asked, what's underneath that. a big part of it, industrial tablets. thing about people working in warehouses and other settings, perhaps coming back to work. ar/vr is a part of that. that's a big part of the business that's not handset. he said in china they're growing share, but at the same time the overall market is having issues. at the low end, he said they were seeing some weakness. there are other companies out there you may want to real through to their guide, qualcomm's guide factors in a covid recovery at the end of this june quarter the 2k3w50id, of course, was a beat as well if that doesn't happen, you have to factor that in, too >> jon fortt, thank you. tim, you watch semis very
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carefully for many reince. their diversification from apple , a what they're not highlighting enough, is the 5g connectivity, the low processing limits that gives them a competitive advantage, but most importantly, and i think this has been emphasized by jon, i'll emphasize that 11 to 12 times makes this very, very cheap. the other semis, this is a company that i do think that this is something we'll get excited about. i'm not sure we've seen the bottom yet >> what does this tell you about other semiconductors >>. >> when i look at qualcomm, it looks similar to other charts, but it underperformed so intensely, that back in october
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2021, it jumped from about 135 to 184, right around there they have all round tripped. it's back down nvidia is back down. their main thing is handsets they're not the enter net of things thing they're not the car, not that everything nvidia and amd is they're trying to migrate towards misthat's a very low percentage of segments, but they're going to run face first into the animals in that segment, which is nvidia i think all the semiconductors will run into that anyone ordering a semiconductor that they can get their hands on, which means six months down the road we'll have too many chips. >> julie, do you agree with the pendulum people are over-ordering, so we will have a glut >> i absolutely agree. we thought having the level of
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consolidation in the chip sector that we do have would eliminate that, but with supply chain issues, you're seeing cases of double ordering. i think we'll see more of the pendulum swings. it just makes sense. you know, a lot of chips being produced for iot, et cetera, they're really simple moddie style of chips it's not nearly as profitable, either. quite a lot in back taxes. amgen's quarter pretty much fine, but it is that dispute with the irs and not it's first
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dispute, the stock is being driven down more than 5% amgen says the irs wasn't $5.1 billion in a dispute over the way it allocated profits between the u.s. and puerto rico for that period. it could add interest on that, as well as a $2 billion penalty. that's on top of the $3.6 billion they're already in dispute over from back to 2010 for the same issue they are contesting that they say they play to contest this vigorously, but they're also being audited for to 16 through 2018 amgen says this will take years potentially to play out. >> man, an irs audit is never fun. >> amgen has a home run relative to the peer group. if you look at the numbers they just announced, you know, i
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think the product guide is still something that's very impressive look, these substantial in terms of a hit on profitability. i think it's something you have to weigh these things tend to work themselves out somehow, but the stock down 5% right now, without knowing the degree of that inquiry, i would just say it's time to take a pause. coming up, there are a lot more earnings we have to get to tonight. results from ford, at the adock and paypal coming up is there a big threat of looming with the reopening of the chinese economy? 'lgeso aio, xt
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we have an earns alert on ford, saying first quarter profits were dragged down by the stake in rivian, but they are maintaining full-year guidance jim farley will be on "mad money" next hour tim, what would you ask him? >> i would not waste time on the arrive jan i don't think that markup or markdown was terribly official i would ask about precash flow obviously we want to hear about the fast-forwarding of the ev business, the interest in the f-1509 lightning, but the cost of the business and what they can do. >> agreed. rivian is just a non-event it sounds like a gm redux. we'll see what they have to say,
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and that f-150, that's going to be gigantic. >> reaffirming, both of them have reaffirmed. let's get to the market here the nasdaq rising over 1.7%, falling about closing basically flat tesla gave up nearly 5% gain nvidia swung from high to low. what do the moves tell you the session felt kind of weak. what did you make of it? >> you know, i think we keep coming up against these hopeful rallies of people trying to buy the dip. there's just not the same level of conviction as we had last year so, i think it's hard to get really super-enthusiastic. i understand that the tech sector is down 20, 30, 40, big names down big numbers, but at
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the end of the day, who's to say that high was really the right number i think they moved back to more of a reasonable valuation. i'm not super enthusiastic i understand investors hesitancy to get back into the market. it's an opportunity to sell stocks, and they lost that whole thing of, oh, i'm getting my money back there's no more psychology, i'm getting my money back to where i was x amount of weeks ago, x amount of months ago it's i just want a bitmore tha the big red day where i felt gutted ultimately, i think everyone thinks the market is going lower,s probably means we're within an eye shot of the bottom i think it will have a 38 handle
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bottom >> there's also a bit of a fomo retail investor, who had been the fuel for bounces in the past we saw that with the robinhood layoffs. that really underscored how the retail investor has pulled back. >> you know, i would ecto the same sentiment it may seem like there's a lot of doom and gloom that comes off this desk. i do think when you look at where the consumer is, sentiment is terrible. sentiment is certainly to a case where it's easy to look at the charts, they closed lower than yesterday's close. to be clear, the charts did not enjoy today. they are closes below. give me a reset of the expectations and then -- >> take a look at netflix, karen. aren't you glad you got out of
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that one down 5% today. >> yes, i am yes, i mean, on the heels of alphabet, right? but i don't know, i feel like i'll just step back and watch for a bit longer. >> it's interesting when gene said he didn't thinking big-cap -- we have not gotten to the point where they have priced in recession if that enters the psychology, there's more wood to chop to the down side. we know mechanically valuation at higher interest rates will make stocks worth less we still don't know how these company will function in that environment the fed is going to hike 50 bips next week, and probably next month. i think the market needs to sort through some of it, and i don't think it happens overnight. let's turn to china.
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the impact of lockdowns are affecting tyson. let's get more from the senior policy analyst at longview global great to have you with us. great to be back, melissa. it's so reminiscent of the early days of the pandemic, what are you telling clients, or how are clients planning for continued supply chain disruptions have we learned anything from living through the supply disruptions during the pandemic? >> i hope we have learned what it means to have a situation where china goes into lockdown i'll tell you, melissa, there seems to be no end in sight. xi jinping has maid it clear pandemic control will remain in place, die speed the pressure internally and externally to try to have a more reasonable
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control policy i don't see that changing anytime soon in fact, we're hearing about additional cities outside of beijing, and places like inare mongolia, home to mineral production, starting to shut down i think people have to prepare themselves. >> it sounds like the supply chain issues won'tbe pretty. i hate to say it, isn't it different this time around, in that the population is protesting they are protesting the lockdowns at this point. tyson is diverting food shipments, so there are food issues, there's inflation issues you know, the people of china don't want this to happen this time doesn't that undermine xi jinping? >> i think you hit it on the head we had protests in wuhan, but this was much more controllable. this is shanghai with lots of
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ex-pats, lots of middle-class chinese. they were not just prepared though this draconian left of a shutdown jinping is tied to this policy he has touted this policy and his system at being to better manage an outbreak than democracy. he has to see this through, that means a lot of pain for chinese citizens, and ex-pats there. >> i have read conspiracy theories as to would xi jinping would go to such draconian extremes we're reading about cases there's one or two cases in a bill, and they construct fences around that building is it possible in your view, but the china expert, that perhaps china is doing this to show the rest of the world what a grip
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it's got, in terms of the supply change and the power it has? >> i've read a number of those stories as well. china doesn't have to prove to the world this has a grip on power. it does. i'll tell you reasons why they're afraid one, the efficacy of china's vaccine are nowhere near as high as moderna or pfizer or j&j for that matter. for that reason, they're concerned. you have to remember how old the population is. and then finally the health system whiles steps to progress have been made, it's not strong enough to handle a pandemic like this so there are some legitimate reasons for them to do this. we may not agree with how strict it is, but it's not just to prove they have power.
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that's pretty well established >> thank you good to see you. >> thank you, melissa julie? >> i think we continue to see it ripple, and the minute there's a shutdown, at every step around the way, there's so much complexity in the supply chain, you get these waxes and wanes of supplies so you get places where there's too much containers empty in the port of long beach they're not evenent to get them back, right? it ripples through the system. so right now we're seeing transportation be kind of soft, but i think there's absolutely a case where you have to build back inventory, and it becomes full again warehouses are at full capacity right now. my concern now is there's going to be a lot of seasonal merchandise that will come to us way too late, and then we'll have a major inventory overhang
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that's hard to wind down profitably, so i think there's a lot of risks, especially those selling seasonal merchandise. >> >> is there a silver lining to this and the impact on the chinese commentary >> yeah. it's accommodating they have to worry about the currency, though the yuan has had a major move. there are some folks that feel there's more pressure on their economy, and if you look at some of the biggest stocks, whether it's the kweb, but tencent and alibaba continue to plunge to new lows capital control and flow of capital in and out of the country is something i think china should be worried about. coming up, volatility victory. the market continues its wild ride how can you shield your money? we are laying out port follow for protection, next. we're all over the after-hours moves when "fast money" returns
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the index is on pace for the worst month since march of 2020. what options do you have tony zhang joins us. >> in this particular market, when volatility is so high, there is one simple strategy that almost every options trader has at their disposal to provide some downside protection, that's a covered call this is a strategy that requires you to have at least 100 shares of an optionable stock or etf, where you can sell a call option against that stock, with the stock as your class rule against the obligations of that call, which will jerch rate income it obligates you to sell your stock at that specific strike price. just to break this down and look at it from a graphics perspective, one of the best
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ways to understand this strategy is you're giving away future up side of the stock you own in exchange for upfront income you can receive today. this will reduce your cost basis, provide a bit of downside protection by the premium you're collecting in this particular environment, you're just going to be able to check more premium if you look across the street, you're going to find premium just about everywhere you look one of the examples i have here, the strike price on robinhood, that's a strike price 30% above the current price of the stock in just 30 days, that annualizes out how about 44% yield on that cover call that's providing a lot of attention here you see this across the board in many of these technology and
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welcome back to "fast money. check out shares of teladoc. they're down now by 39%, posting a miss on revenue, issuing disappointing guidance it was tweeted a half hour or so ago, it's off from pre-pandemic levels investors saying the business looked worse today than pre-pandemic karen, what do you make of this? >> ay-yi-yi, clearly this is one of them, the guidance, though,
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the giant miss and then you're going to be light, bad things are going to happen. there's also the $6 billion impairment, which is a non-cash charge, but what was that from >> only $41 a share. >> it's just staggering. >> it's crazy. >> i'm not picking on callen, but this was the preview record. they had, it looks attractive. it was trading half the pre-pandemic level that's fair for an analyst to make that call this is the post are child of 2.0 or the modern version. in other words, think about the sweet spot.
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let's get to another earnings alert paypal posting a revenue beat. kate rooney has all the details. >> significant splash for full-year guidance, withdrawing the medium-term outlook, dropping revenue growth expectations to between 11 and 13% for the full year, eps also lower than what wall street was looking for. the ceo kicked off the call with a bit of a mea culpa he said shareholders expect more from us than the track record has delivered. he takes full accountability for that as for why they're pulling that medium guidance, he said paypal is looking to level set expectations in what he calls a dynamic environment. he talks about increased global security, and incremental inflationary pressures, also
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e-merit spending, so a bit different from what we heard from amex and visa he also talked about user engagement versus growth, and they focused on checkout, as well as doubling down on the digital wallet. >> user engagement instead of growth as the metric, and he wants to switch that that's a red flag, i think, for investors. >> well, yeah, they changed the way they're doing net new active accounts they had about a 750 million account target they completely scrapped in the entire quarter they said the stage last quarter. this time they talked about how that's going, and really focused on more engagement. kate, thanks karen, you own this one. >> i do. the bar was low, where you could slide under the bar, if you
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don't actually even need to touch t. that's good enough i think seeing fintech getting annihilated, but things are coming down to what i think is not a crazy multiple >> julie, how are you feeling about fin tech eve to me it's just a hot of hot air. with paypal, why is it so clunky still? they haven't been investing in that business. i look at shopify and what up apple wallet is doing, and they're just eatic their lunch i'm concerned the product is not a as good as it can be fundamental it's a very strong business. >> i think back to the pinterest attempted deal, steve, and a lot of folks on the desk were
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questioning why would they do that pinterest is up 10% in the after-hours session. what do you make of paypal here? >> the company told you they had no ideas for growth when they were trying to buy pinterest you said it with teladoc this one, the pre-pandemic level was $120 this stock is trading at the pandemic low i would say away from this one traditional names are more -- more value oriented. i would stay away from this one. coming up, digital dilemma, elon musk buying twitter in the middle of an ad spending slowdown the deiltas are ahead. "fast money" is back in two. introducing icy hot pro. with 2 max-strength pain relievers. ice works fast... to freeze your pain and your doubt. heat makes it last.
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are we only see a slowdown at the smaller players? and for the others there is no alternatives, so marketers spend there? >> i think there will be a lot of challenges across the board this is all a trickle effect you have this entire market that's going to start experiencing a lot of uncertainty. inflation for the large privates that raise they're facing a tougher fund-raising environment those people were spending a lot on these ad platform it is you won't see that as much for them they'll by trying to think about preserving some of that cash >> to the extent there's that competition that won't be as well situate the could that be the strong survive >> when you think about twitter,
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in an ad stack that's been challenged historically, especially on a direction response size, it will be tough in an environment where people are pulling back the taywind in the secular, digital ad world is such a massive market it's only growing, it's not going anywhere linear tv is dead. isn't this a story of a relative outperformance from company to company? you know, facebook is what we hear, you tell me, getting its lunch cleaned by tiktok, even re reddit, so talk about that. >> it's all time horizons. long term, absolutely. digital advertising will continue to rise, but in the short term it's going to be disrupted, i see a lot of disruption in q2 people are tightening ad budgets, not spending as mvp they're starting to think more about what does it look like for
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the next few months, so i think it's going to be interesting to see what q2 looks like. >> do you think short-term marketers pull from twitter, given the uncertainty about how the platform will be viewed under elon musk? >> they have six or so months before the merger finishes i think uncertainty will hurt them it's unclear if they will continue to operate as they did before or will they get tentative, and then post the transaction, does elon musk fundamentally change how they think about advertising? >> thank you for being here. >> thank you for having me. how are you feeling about the twitter short? >> i'm feeling good going into tomorrow's earnings. i think that won't help. it's really about the merger -- the risk/reward, you know, add it on dwighter, you hate elon, i
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don't hate elon. i think he's a genius. he could walk away, pay a billion. if that happens, there's a ton of down side >> it seems that when we look at the world that twitter is in, and there's nothing in terms of this monetization that's changed -- and this is my frustration. we heard very different things 18 months ago -- i would tend to agree with karen the cyclicality of the digital ad market, he's right, under a lot of pressure. that's not really the issue the companies are facing i think they're wrestling with who really is in the driver's seat i think advertisers really have no place to go. up next, final trades.
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i think guy is going to appear >> i better do better than last year i don't even think i know. i can tell i, i didn't want to take bitcoin, but i took it. great crew tomorrow. i don't know how they invited me to this thing yet again. an exciting day. a couple stocks post-earnings, we have meta, pin, paypal, united rentals. on the down side, amgen in a tax dispute with the irs and teladoc just getting creamed julie had to go. thank you for joining us steve, kick us off they had pricing power i would rather put my bought on mcdonald's.
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>> karen >> the three-day rule turns out applies to up side as well i would wait, buy meta. >> walmart see you tomorrow stock draft. 2:00 p.m thank you for watching back here at 5:00 for fast. my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "a mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. other people make friends. i'm just trying to make money. 1-800-743-cnbc or@jim cramer. and nasdaq dipped .0%.
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