tv Closing Bell CNBC April 29, 2022 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT
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tomorrow this stock is up 10% this year, so it's not that everything is broken right now, but there is a violent rotation taking place. >> let's see what happens in the next hour. thanks, everybody, for watching "power lunch." "closing bell" starts right now. thanks, kelly and tyler. stocks are struggling on this final trading day of april, near the lows of the session. it's an ugly ending to an ugly month. the most important hour of trading starts now welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen here's where we stand, down more than 600 on the dow. it's being weighed down by pretty much everything, it's broad. every sector is lower in the s&p 500, 2.8%. amazon is hitting consumer discretionary particularly hard. that sector is down 5.6% look at the nasdaq, it's down 3.3% worst month of trading for the nasdaq since back in 2008, the depths of the financial crisis
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didi is seeing strength in the chinese internet names, ford, nio, at&t and alibaba. coming up today, chevron's ceo, mike wirth, joins us to talk about his quarterly results that are sending that stock lower, although it's up more than 30% on the year let's get straight into this market sell-off. joining us now tony dwyer. tony, if i've been reading your recent notes correctly, you are expecting a little bit of a reprieve in the market it doesn't feel like that today. >> no, it doesn't, sara. we put that out wednesday when the market was getting smoked then our policy since december, i have this line, don't just do something, sit there and usually it's the other way around now i think the historical sentiment measures by either investors intelligence, news letter writers, but especially the american association of individual investors, the
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readings go back to, even in the bear market of 2008 when the bears were this high, you found some kind of footing obviously it's not working today. again, it's a small move this is a tumultuous and dicey environment. we've talked a lot about it that's going to continue to be that way. >> what makes you think besides negative sentiment we'll get some meaningful uptrend in the market if you look at the reasons why we're selling off, it doesn't seem to be getting better. and that is higher inflation we don't know whether it's peaked or not. weakening growth we don't really know how much we're slowing. and then china slowdown, global growth slowdown and we're starting to see some warnings in earnings, like amazon. >> sara, this is an awful environment. i don't want to make the case that we're going to have this major uptrend that starts wednesday or today and goes on for the rest of the next two or three years. the problem that we have as you
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depict, you've got the fed in a box. their two main mandates aren't getting better and they can't, they're lagging indicators so inflation is excessively high and the unemployment rate is historically low that's not going to change enough over the next couple of months to really change the dynamic of the fed raising rates. but they're raising rates into not just a global slowdown but a domestic slowdown where china is shutting down again and they're a mess because of the covid shutdowns. you've got europe if they're not in a recession, they're on the border of it because of th russia/ukraine war and now in the u.s. consumers are beginning to slow down because of the impact of higher inflation and higher interest rates. while that sounds so negative, even in the heart of the great financial crisis, like post bear stearns, post lehman, you had some meaningful bounces. i think we're on the cusp of one of those potential.
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>> and so where do you want to be when that happens do you want to be in big cap tech which has been hit the hardest with the nasdaq and bear market >> it's economically sensitive in the big cap tech. here's the difference of what was happening in 2008 and now. it's more like 1994, i think, frankly. the fed is tightening. they're not easing so typically when the markets are in trouble and it looks like there's a potential recession, global economic slowdown, you get the global central banks begin to ease. this is not the case in the u.s. so that's creating the issues we have. >> and the bond market is sending some funky signals as well you'll just keep marching higher the bond market seems to be much more focused on the inflation story. the break-evens of more than 2.5% on 10-years and the stock market is more the slowdown story with the defensives outperforming. so which is it how do you hedge against that stagflationary environment where
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we're getting mixed signals like that >> i'm glad you bring that up because our thinking is this could be a lot like 1994 now, obviously inflation was going down in the '90s there was a surprise fed rate hike in february of 1994, another in march, an unscheduled one in april and so whether or not there was inflation or not there was a massive move by the fed in that. once you got into the june low, you got kind of a whoosh like we're getting now. that set the stage for the market to rally into the summertime because the market began to believe that there was signs of an economic slowdown and the market had already discounted what the fed was going to do. so you were into this oversold situation. remember, march was the worst bond market for treasuries since february of 1994 not since the great financial crisis or other recessions but the problem was, and this is
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a really important point, sara when the bond market acts like this and the currency market acts like this, typically something breaks you had the s & l crisis in '90, the mexican debt crisis and orange county declaring bankruptcy at the end of '94 of course the asian economic crisis a lot -- it's a tumultuous environment so we're just thinking we get this oversold bounce on sentiment and some of the technical stuff. >> so just play it out '94, there are similarities as you say. the bond action is searchly one of them. but inflation is much higher and there's a feeling the fed will have to stomp on it until it breaks something and that's going to be very painful for the equity market. so what happens next there was a reprieve in the summer of '94 and didn't it ending on a down note for the year >> remember, our call for the year was a plus or minus year. i get a lot of questions about what's our target, it's a plus or minus year. from the august peak you went back down as orange county
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declared bankruptcy and you had other fed-related issues to the lows and then you closed the year unchanged basically you had that year-end rally. so it's different because inflation is not going up like it was in 1994 a good comparison is to think that the market is just beginning to go down, you've got nearly 50% of the nasdaq down 50%. so this is not like, wow, it's just beginning, it's been going down and at some point in '94, i'll never forget, ralph used to talk about the stealth bear market and that was what was happening in '94 and it's what's happening now. the a.d. line has rolled over and so many stocks are going down again, it sets the stage for an oversold rally whether it's sustainable or not, sara, is going to depend on if the fed is able to see the economic data slowing down enough to allow backing off from their aggressiveness and rates begin to come in on a market
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level. >> and whether inflation also can come in. well, it's not plus or minus right now, it's minus. the s&p is now down 13% for the year. >> that's right. >> tony, thank you as we're making new session lows, down 700 on the market dow. dow on pace for its fifth losing week in a row. up next, our exclusive interview with the ceo of chevron, mike wirth. the stock taking a dip on earnings but it's a big winner on the year as oil prices lerea multi-year highs you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. wealth is breaking ground on your biggest project yet. worth is giving the people who build it a solid foundation. wealth is shutting down the office for mike's retirement party. worth is giving the employee who spent half his life
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taking another leg lower, down more than 700 points right now on the dow every dow stock pretty much lower. there are a few bright spots but every speector is lower on the s&p. mohawk industries is the best performer. the world's largest maker of carpet and wood flooring products reported better than expected earnings thanks to record sales and multiple price increases. people still spending to renovate their homes meanwhile, chevron quadrupling from a year ago. it follows a surge in oil prices hitting a peak of $130 a barrel back in march. joining us is the ceo, mike wirth. mike, welcome. good to see you. >> it's good to be with you. >> clearly the profits were a good story, but some gripes with
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the refining, international refining revenues. wall street a little bit underwhelmed what do you make of the reaction >> well, sara, as you said, it was a very strong quarter. four times better than a year ago and really our best quarter in a decade. we're delivering on our commitment of higher returns and lower carbon our first return was 15% midyear we'll close on a renewable fuels acquisition that we're very excited about and in a market that is moving quickly and is volatile, there are certain timing effects and other things that are difficult for the market to anticipate but it was a very, very good quarter. >> what about on the cost side how are you dealing with all the issues, from wage inflation to everything else going up >> well, we're a long-term business so we plan our work and work our plan. there are inflationary pressures in the economy, but much of what we do, we've already contracted
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for, we've permitted and laid it out. and while we're seeing some pres pressures, it's all very manageable, within our budgets and we are not seeing anything that's something i don't think our company is very well prepared to manage as we go through this cycle. >> certainly the higher prices said you said, mike, in a release today that you're doing your part to boost domestic supply, and i know you have increased it this year. but it does feel like you and some of the others have been a little reluctant to really turn it up at a time where we need u.s. energy supply very much right now and europe needs it even more. >> well, i would see it a little bit differently, sara. our first quarter u.s. oil and gas production is up 10% from last year. our capital spending is up 30% from last year on production we raised our guidance from 10%
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growth to 15% growth today and first quarter was the highest production we've ever had, nearly 700,000 barrels a day. so we are committing capital to this market. we are growing production and we are adding supply. >> but overall isn't u.s. supply still below 2020 levels? >> well, it's below 2019 levels. if you look at 2020, in the depths of the pandemic production came down because demand was contracting and there was no place to store the oil. in this market, sara, demand always moves faster than supply. on the downside as we saw in 2020 and then in '21 and this year as the world economy opened back up, demand has surged very strongly and supply doesn't typically respond as quickly but it's coming. we see it in the u.s., we see it around the world. >> i also want to talk about the cash returns because that was a big part of the story today as
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well you're getting back $10 billion of stock, exxonmobil with 30 billion. what do you say to the politicians that might criticize that move and say stop rewarding shareholders, it's consumers that need relief at the pump. >> well, sara, we just talked about what this market needs to help prices moderate is more supply our production in the u.s. is up 10% year on year look, we're in a position with a strong balance sheet to do it all. we've increased our dividend per share 6% in the first quarter. we're investing to grow both our traditional business and our new energy business. spending this year will be up almost 50% versus last year. we're maintaining a very strong balance sheet. part of our value proposition to shareholders is return excess cash through buybacks once we can satisfy those other needs. so we are investing in growth and new supply and can reward our shareholders at the same time. >> speaking of politics, mike, i'm sure you know congressional democrats are talking about an
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investigation into the big oil companies for price gouging. what would they find >> i think they'll find the same thing they have founding every time that this has come up over the 40 years i've been working i think they'll find nothing in fact i testified at a congressional hearing just a few weeks ago where we made it very clear that we don't control the price of oil, gas or refined products and we have no tolerance for price gouging. these investigations tend to have more of a political dimension to them than a practical one. and i think that the outcome will be the same as every other one that we've ever seen >> drop 760 on the dow it's been volatile clearly the war in ukraine is a big part of the story. where do you think prices head from here? we got as high as $130.50 back in march do you think we'll see that level again? >> well, it's a market, sara, that is -- it's not an equilibrium right now, it's a
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very unstable and unpredictable market we've got demand being somewhat constrained by lockdowns in china and air travel that really hasn't returned. and yet on the supply side, we've got concerns about supply impacts of this conflict and sanctions and the other things that have emerged in response to it it's a market that is pretty finely balanced right now. inventories are at low levels and there is -- there's a lot of upward tension in the market i hope that the conflict in ukraine is resolved sooner rather than later and through diplomacy, and i think that would take some of the pressure off of this market if that's not the case and if we were to see further escalation and further actions, that could put pressure on it in the other direction. so it's just -- it's a volatile and unpredictable circumstance right now. >> right what would that look like? what happens if germany -- if europe gets cut off from russian gas, either by russia or by an
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oil embargo that it imposes? what does that look like in the market >> well, i think everyone is trying to find ways to re-route supply lines right now to meet the needs that exist in europe and could increase in europe if we were to see some changes in policy or supply out of russia the fact of the matter is normally these markets are in a state of constant flow and supply and demand are two very largmbers that are very close to one another if you were to see a significant amount of supply come out of the markets right now, it's very difficult in the short term for that to be met from other sources because those supplies are going to other markets today. and so that's why there is risk of an upward move in oil or in gas if we were to see further disruptions or changes in the situation in europe. >> so how -- so how do you deal with the uncertainty how do you plan a business
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without knowing whether this many war in ukraine is going to ending or could go on for years and what the next chapter looks like do you look at it as a traditional boom/bust cycle in oil prices or is this different? >> well, you said a keyword, which is cycles. this is a long cycle industry. commodity business is very capital intensive. the current price of the commodities that we sell really doesn't impact our investments outlook or our strategies. we have to look through that to a long-term view of supply and demand, technology and markets across cycles and that's what really drives our strategy in the near term you focus on things you can control you focus on safety, protecting people and the environment, focus on cost control and execution. and then markets are what they are. and so you focus on the controllables and then you take what the markets offer t two years ago they didn't offer
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much we had negative prices just two years ago. today it's a very different world. we can't overreact to either one of those, we have to try to see through those to the long term. >> mike wirth, thank you for joining us from chevron off earnings today appreciate the time. stock is down 3% take a look at what's happened now. we are lower, sharply so again down 723 on the dow. s&p 500 down 3% almost right now. every sector is lower. consumer discretionary hit the hardest off amazon but you've got weakness across the board. real estate, technology, financials all down at the bottom of the list the nasdaq down 3.4% ending april on a sour note. still ahead, we'll head out to omaha where mike santoli is getting ready for the berkshire annual meeting but he's not off the hook for dashboard he'll take a closer look at apple which is one of warren buffett's key holdings that stock down almost 3%. we'll be right back.
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welcome back to another ugly session here on wall street. here's where we stand right now in the market, down 715 points just off the lows of the session. the s&p 500 down 3%, the nasdaq down more than 3%, capping off what has been a terrible month for april, especially for the tech-heavy nasdaq, worst sense back in 2008 in the fall take a look at today's top search tickers on cnbc.com amazon getting the most interest no surprise. the stock is plunging, down 14% off of that weaker revenue forecast and some misses on operating income apple also giving back 2.6% off of the disappointment in that guidance that we got on the costs that are rising related to supply chain 10-year yield in the third spot, unusual. 2.89 on the 10-year.
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tesla is up maybe 1% on news that elon musk did tweet that he's done selling shares and meta down 1% a little more resilient after a double-digit rise off the back of what was viewed as positive earnings apple shares weighing on the dow. up next, we will debate whether apple's pullback is actually a buying opportunity "closing bell" back in a moment.
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we're sinking into the close. the s&p is down more than 3%, capping off a brutal month, now down more than 8% for april. berkshire's annual mega gathering in omaha is under way. our mike santoli is there for the festivities. for today's dashboard, mike, you're looking at some of warren buffett's top holdings, including apple, because it's lower on the back of earnings. >> yes, it is lower, sara. obviously down 3%, not a real tremendous move off of those results. but clearly not immune to the pressure what's interesting is over time, since warren buffett and berkshire hathaway have bought their stake in apple, how it's become revalued. take a look at how it compares to coca-cola, which of course is a decades-long holding of b buffett's. they both are in parity. about 25 times forward earnings.
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most of the past decade when he was acquiring his shares, apple was seen as a hardware company it was not given a generous valuation. and buffett's insight or his case that he made when he bought it was it's actually an everyday consumer product consumers rely on it they're not going to switch away from it. it's a premium brand, margins can stay high. it was the same type of observation he made many years ago about coca-cola and so far has been rewarded, sara. >> always looked at it as a consumer staple too. so the valuation finally caught up what about berkshire hathaway overall. it's been pretty resilient thanks to holdings like coca-cola and being in some of the right spots isn't the economy. what do you expect to get this weekend, to hear >> i think it's almost a guarantee you're going to get reminders about those long-term principles, about don't bet against america over long periods of time, the stock market can be very rewarding he points out the dow was under
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100 when he first bought his first share of stock shorter term, it's tough to say. higher rates, this cocktail of higher rates, stubborn inflation is somewhat benefitting parts of his business if you think about it insurance has been a bright spot with the financials. obviously energy infrastructure and utilities a big part of it railroads have also been very strong so the components of berkshire hathaway have been in favor at the moment also extremely strong balance sheets as his are. and his stock portfolio has a lot of the steady consumer staples type stocks that have been largely resistant to the recent bear turn in the markets. >> yeah, up for the year but sort of ran up into march and has come right down in april on some of these slowdown concerns. mike, looking forward to a lot more from you guys there, you and becky. tomorrow don't miss berkshire hathaways's shareholder meeting. it will be streamed live exclusively on cnbc.com. for more on the apple earnings, let's bring in collin
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gillis trying to figure out here what to do with the stock you say buy, correct why? >> yeah. listen, the guide was somewhat disappointing, right but it was all about supply, not demand i think that's an important point that needs to be made over and over again apple's miss was really about supply it didn't have supply issues and didn't stop sending phones to russia the growth would be 9, 10% which is fairly robust so far inflation has not hurt apple's demand i think the ecosystem, wearables are double digits and you have a whole slew of new products coming out so it's a supply issue which is temporary, not longer term historically when apple has a supply issue, it's demand -- meaning it should get better for apple. >> that was your question on the
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conference call, wasn't it, amit, about the supply and the headwind and whether investors should look at it as a deferral. so what did you learn on that front? >> i think apple management is being extremely cautious and guarded about how the next six, nine months play out, given everything that's happening in china. but i think the fact that historically it has been more about demand getting deferred rather than destroyed. what i tell you, historical trends hold up this is getting pushed out if i want an iphone and can't get it, i'll wait for the iphone to come out. i'm not going to go buy a samsung or huawei. >> collin, you're not as convinced on the stock move. is it about what we've seen so far or is it about something you got from the fundamentals and earnings last night? >> you know, first off, there's a lot of great things about apple.
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i'm sure i'll touch on the services business and all the pieces investors love. but the reality is the company's growth is slowing and it's going to be slowing even more in the june quarter and likely even more in the september quarter, right? because this is still very much the iphone company 52% of revenue comes from the iphone, and that growth was only 5% that includes that you had 19% growth in the americas so if that slows down over the summer, which is very likely, given some of the consumer pressures and inflation, this is going to put pressure on apple >> so, amit, take the other side of that. if apple is not immune to it, what does that do to the rest of the companies you cover? >> i think apple's issue is, again, on supply not demand. demand seems to be holding up well if apple has supply issues, you worry about everyone else, especially those with a heavy china manufacturing base
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interestingly enough through the trump era, a lot of companies, pc companies, moved their kpaflt from china to mexico apple never had the tariffs, never moved out. but to the point on the growth concerns, the comparisons get amazingly easy for apple so i would argue as you go forward, you're facing easier compares, you have a product cycle and so as long as inflation -- >> so you disagree on the growth slowing plan. >> i think growth will be good for them once you get past the supply issues. >> final word, colin >> tim cook has said that there is demand issues already showing up in china. if you're looking forward, likely that demand is going to decelerate or is it likely demand will be increasing in the next few months? it's more likely to decelerate >> there you go. two views on apple, which is
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down 3%. amit, colin, thank you both very much. the dow is down more than 700 points, another one of these final hours we just collapse into the close joining us is ben emons. was it the amazon and apple spark that sent markets tumbling or just this is how it is lately, the path of least resistance appears to be lower >> hi, sara. yeah, i think the stock story is weighing as you noted, amazon being down almost 13, 14% really hitting consumer discretionary sector, almost 5% down so it tells you what the impact still is of those stocks as the index is declining the broader market takes a big hit on this. interest rates are reacting to the core pce data and employment cost index and that's what is weighing here. we're going to have a federal
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reserve that will signal a series of rate hikes of 50 basis points and the market once again is readying with that with the downside. >> so what do you do in this environment? the defensives had been working really well and then there's some concerns now about valuations >> yeah, for sure. and i think that if you think about since the ukraine war broke out, sectors like staples and materials had an outperformance that's changed because of china coming in with the supply chain disruption so it's even more conservative where you would have to resort somewhat to a cash level in your portfolio to offset this but nevertheless, sara, i think you're coming out of a really bad month. we don't know what the next month will be but one thing we could say is we're getting in some of these technology at much cheaper valuations so there will be opportunities on the offensive side.
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so i think pay attention here as we get into the fed meeting. >> ben emons, thank you for jumping on the news line increase those cash positions. let's get back to mike santoli who is in omaha but of course watching every tick here, mike, as we see another pretty brutal session. the nasdaq 100 for the month overall down 13% not getting better how does it set us up for may? >> no. yeah we're actually challenging the lows for this correction we're trading on the s&p 500 here below the closing low, which was from back in mid-march around 4170. we had an intraday low on late february back when we first got the invasion of ukraine by russia, that was in the low 4100s. the bottom line, though, is we're pressuring what has been the low end of this trading range for months what's interesting again about it and maybe a little bit fatiguing about it is that it's not really that headline driven.
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it's kind of this kind of slow, sagging action draining away and reducing equity exposure you have bond yields up again today. some treasury yields are higher. a lot of talk about how the 60/40 portfolio is having an awful run and that makes people more defensive now, can we make a stand here? who knows. the market has refused a bunch of plausible reasons to try to find its footing not that april used to be historically a strong month, but even the final days of a month like april where you've been very weak, often you did get a lift we've been talking for days about very depressed investor sentiment. that still remains true. but the overall market is not terribly oversold and sentiment is not a catalyst, it's a background factor that should allow the market to bounce down the road, but it's not something that really necessarily operates on a short-term basis, sara. >> mike, stay close. thank you for all of that talk
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about the levels let's bring in charlie from aerial investments charlie, you predicted that the nasdaq had run too far too fast and that these faang names will collapse and the growth names and value will outperform. it finally happened. you waited several years for that to happen, but now everything is in a downtrendi so what do you expect to happen next >> well, we were two things at bubble levels. we had growth in tech stocks and we had bonds both trading at irrational levels we had interest rates that made no sense, negative real interest rates. we still have negative real interest rates so those two things combined with the power of inflation, which you and i have been talking about for at least 18 months, which continues to be underestimated so you had those three factors bubbles and bonds in tech stocks and unforeseen by the market inflation. that's all coming together to produce some areas of return i mean i am feeling everybody's
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pain, but the fund that i run was flat on the year as of this morning mostly through commodities. oil and fertilizer stocks and growth stocks have held up very, very well here >> is that still the play? >> say it again? >> is that still the playbook? >> absolutely. >> against inflation, through commodities? >> absolutely. these names, these operating companies -- i wouldn't own the raw materials, i'd own the companies. mosaic and apache. mosaic, there's going to be a lot of demand for fertilizer we have food shortages in lots of the world corn is $8 a bushel. there's going to be a lot of demand so that's the way to play this the other way to play it is to keep your bond portfolio short we still should have the 10-year treasure row way above 2.88. that number will go to 4% in my opinion certainly this year.
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>> so the flip side of your whole view, charlie, is if growth really starts to slow down we got a negative print on gdp a lot of people think we are going to slow, given all of these headwinds, including the fed getting aggressive on rising rates. if that's the case, wouldn't you want to be buying bonds? because we've seen some -- they're pretty extended right now, that sell-off. >> yeah. not at an 8% inflation number. i think we're going to have inflation actually up over the next couple months we're not going to see inflation peaking until the summer and then next year we're going to see inflation way ahead of people talking about 2% or 3% next year. so at those levels you should not be buying bonds. corporate spreads are still too tight. those are going to widen out keep your durations short. the other things to be doing are, frankly, real assets. don't be afraid to own a home here warren buffett talks about the value of owning a home and there is good value there.
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real assets look real good right now. >> charlie, thank you very much for joining us from are ariel investments. flat on the year, lerngdarned tt day. we're going straight into the market zone. mike santoli is here plus deirdre bosa on amazon's big sell-off, piper's chris doughnut we are near session lows again in this final hour of trade and it caps off a rough month for the major averages for the month of april worst month for the nasdaq since going back to october of 2008. looking at declines pretty much across the board there's the s&p 500 down 3%. mike, now down about more than 8% overall for the month we thought april was seasonably strong and that we were going to get a rebound here what do you make of the earnings do you think they are being taken as poorly -- do you think they are as poor as they are being taken by the market? >> i wouldn't say across the
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board they're as pour. they're obviously spotty and also the areas where you're seeing the beats are getting rewarded modestly. the big question is the market couldn't withstand huge mega cap disappointments like we've seen. that's a quite obvious statement. amazon, it's basically half and half apple, microsoft did fine, alphabet very mixed but skewed to the negative and amazon, netflix to the downside. all of those things are a little too much weight. where do we sit? almost 14% from our highs on the s&p 500. you've been chopping around this minus 10, minus 12, 13% for a while. the forward pe, because overall earnings have held up, is just above 18 right now for what it's worth, when we've bounced in the market over the course of this year, it has been in the vicinity of 18 times forward earnings we'll see if that matters going from here. >> so you're calling for a bounce, is that it >> i'm saying that the ingredients are there but they
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are also there a few days ago. >> true. amazon, let's hit it, you mentioned it getting wrecked after much weaker than expected earnings due to the slowest sales growth in nearly two decades and a huge loss from its stake in electric vehicle maker rivian the company also forecasting second quarter revenues that will come in lower than analyst estimates. deeds ra bosa joins us how much pricing power does amazon have and what's going on with demand? >> there's the stuff that amazon controls like the cost of prime membership, plus aws cloud service. but on its core e-commerce platform, nearly 60% of sales are third-party merchants. if you think amazon is having a hard time with inflationary and supply chain, what about those medium and third-party businesses that are using fulfillment by amazon to fulfill those orders for inventory, logistics, et cetera we know that amazon spent a ton of money over the pandemic to
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double its network, but what they said on the call last night is that that has actually led to extra capacity so this year was supposed to be a harvest year investors enjoy all of that investment but -- that amazon made over the last years, but now it's looking like amazon has still more work to do while it contends with some of the slowest growth we have seen out of the company all of that is a perfect storm and that is why you are seeing the stock just plummet today. >> this is a traditionally beloved stock by research analysts on the sell side. what are they saying today i'm sure the targets are being lowered, but are they sticking with the stock as a buy? >> yeah. i mean i think that the fundamentals haven't really changed. if any company is able to solve these problems, it is likely amazon b of a says that these problems are all ones that can be fixed so still largely positive. i did speak to a hedge funds manager, sara.
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they're more noin and out of ths name this fund manager told me he was short amazon because he prefers names like united. he said he was short and may take some profit, so that may be a bullish time. >> it's a profitable day for him, whatever that means mike, amazon down 15%. it's now down about 35% from the highs. just like another faang name after netflix and meta that has collapsed. i do wonder what the ripple effect is of that on 401(k)s, on index funds. these are so widely owned stocks that have been working for so many years >> right the pressure on the overall benchmarks and your average portfolio has been outsized. in fact just the way they rewarded you more than the overall market did last year i do think there's a secondary piece of it which is you've had to basically consider the potential for downside from these mega cap stocks to be greater than you thought a year
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ago. when you can lose a couple of hundred billion in market cap in a blink as you've done with a lot of these names, i do think it lends itself to being more defensive. the good news is by all accounts, all the brokerage funds say all the hedge funds are already defensively positioned they already have lightened up and so now it's just about kind of a bleed lower in a lot of these names. the average stock for better or worse is outperforming the largest ones this year. >> take a look, guys, at the dow. we are making new lows right now, down more than 800 points, 830, lows of the session the only dow stocks higher, honeywell and merck. everyone else are falling. it just goes from bad to worse as we cap out an ugly month for stocks one bright spot, chinese tech stocks who would have thought on this down day the kweb etf up 7% after reports that the chinese government said it may ease off on its krkdown of big tech firms and implement
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policies to encourage growth let's bring in gary dvorcek. what do you make in these tea leaves, the reports that they are going to change their tune when it comes to regulating big tech in china? >> hey, sara, thanks for having me on. obviously on the margin it's great to see that. the way i'm looking at it is these companies -- look at our giant internet companies and how they're struggling right now in a relatively good economy. now look at china. you're taking the same gigantic companies that their economy is dependent on and literally millions and millions of people work for these companies and you're putting on top of that the lockdowns in hanghai, a much weaker economy in china than the u.s so even on the margin with the good news that we're getting today, i don't think -- i don't think we're out of the trouble
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zone >> down 925 points mike, these stocks are so sensitive to any whiff of good news, on the regulatory front, on the china stimulus front. still 70% from the highs >> yeah. obviously they led us down into this kind of tech bear market. obviously very headline sensitive. i feel like they have largely been abandoned by many of the u.s. investors that thought they were great vehicles, because they had kind of two things going for them both china growth and just general faang attributes that's kind of gone. so i think they're effectively just trading stocks at the moment unless you really have some kind of high conviction that in fact longer term, policy is going to change and those markets will be allowed to flourish. >> so, gary, what do we need to see to see that, because you
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sounded a little tentative too in terms of how much room there is for these companies to do better in this kind of environment where china still is dealing with the lockdown and some uncertainty on the regulatory front >> yeah. well, i think the central government isgoing to support them from the standpoint of reducing the regulatory burden and a lot of the cybersecurity investigations and things like that the biggest overhang is still going to be the uncertainty around the audit issue, because that is not resolved and frankly the biggest risk right now to those stocks is what the s.e.c. does because, you know, they are -- there's a good possibility they'll accelerate the deadline for the pcaob compliance if they move it to this year instead of 2023, that means -- basically means two audits that are noncompliant and you're delisted that means this year's audit has to be compliant. so all these companies have to really scramble to solve their audit situation if that gets
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accelerated, if the governments don't resolve the issue. >> gary dvorchak, thank you very much the nasdaq is getting pummeled today, down 4%, with the dow down more than 900 points intel not helping, sinking after issuing weaker than expected earnings and revenue guidance in its quarterly report yesterday the chip maker did report a beat on the top and bottom lines for the first quarter, but mike, not being received very warmly in this kind of mark, especially when you have guidance that disap disappoints. afternoon t. irci., texas instruments, what have we learned? >> pc exposure is something you can't escape for intel and something wall street wants right now. this is basically looking a bit like the value trap as it's looked over the last years because it really does appear quite cheap.
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there you see on a five-year basis at the very bottom end of this range, it spent a tremendous amount the last four or five years, they continue to have huge capex. clearly investors could decide that it's moving in the right direction, they're making the right decisions and moving the company in a strategy that's going to bear fruit but patience is wearing thin and estimates are going down it's really hard to own tech stocks when the forecasts are falling. >> and it's hard to own it when there are questions about inflation and the economy and fed rate hikes information technology is the second worst performer right now -- actually third. real estate is down there and consumer discretionary as well mike, we're going into a fed meeting next week. are we feeling any kind of capitulation and washout ahead of what is likely to be a major catalyst is it already baked into the market we expect a 50 basis point hike.
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powell pretty much told us that last week. >> yeah, i think it's fair to say it's clearly baked into the bond market. in the stock market, you've had four pretty good washout days. you'll have to see how the stats stack up at the end of the day to see if you start registering some real dramatic today p-- capitulatory numbers again, after today that might change a lot of folks who have been riding this downtrending said the s&p should probably crack below 4000 to cleanse things and that's only a few percent down from here. >> bank of america's michael harnet said 4000 would be a big exit point for the market. the list of new 52-week lows is long today disney, lowest since july 2020 a lot of the banks are on it
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citigroup, morgan, all going lower. take a look at visa and mastercard under pressure as well along with the broader market piper sandler downgrading both names saying growing recession risks in europe will hurt revenue. chris, i thought the big news from visa is that they're not seeing any evidence of a consumer slowdown? >> right i thought the quarters for visa and mastercard was excellent the trends were all very good. what we're looking at and thanks to our macro team we're leveraging their research. some of the leading indicators of what should happen later in 2022 and into 2023, there should be some negative trends for europe that put pressure on europe so we're concerned about that because mastercard gets nearly a third of its payment volume out
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of europe. visa a bit less. but these are big markets for these companies. so if there's a recession in europe, there's going to be a little bit of slower growth, slower earnings coming from mastercard and visa. >> what about american express what about paypal? what about some of these other names? >> yeah, so paypal is another stock with significant exposure to europe, about 30% of paypal's revenue. that's a stock where with it being down 50% year to date, i think it reflects a lot of the european pain and some other phenomena like e-commerce concerns american express, less exposure to europe. it's two-thirds of the business. it's only around 15% is europe so not as important for europe for amex and we think american express is a company that benefits from the strength of high-end consumers, particularly u.s. based.
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>> travel too. >> so the strength of those high-end consumers and with some of the trends we're seeing for visa and mastercard is debit spending is getting to be kind of flat year on year. tump tough comps. tougher on lower income households. >> chris donat, thank you for joining us as we speak, the dow is down just about 1,000 points, mike, with two minutes to go in the trading day. yuck what do you see in the internals? >> yes well, it's relatively ugly, sara, but maybe not as skewed to the downside internally as you would expect to see or maybe would like to see. as you see right there, it's less than 6-1 negative to positive volume on the new york stock exchange you want to see maybe 8 or 9-1 to say people have sprinted out of this market the mega cap stocks have continued to be the pain point
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look at the s&p on a month to date basis the volatility index spiked back up it's tried to crack below 30 a few times this week and maybe another spike on the chart we're going out into the weekend at the highs typically not a bullish thing. i would want to point out, sara, remember last fed rate hike meeting in march the market was awful going into it it actually had a buy on the news response once we got the hike. >> see what powell says this time next week on wednesday. down 995 points here with less than a minute to go into the close. united health care, goldman sachs, are the biggest drags we're ending the month of april which was a brutal one for long investors on a very strong down note right now down 3.7% on the s&p 500 nasdaq 100 down 4.5% that will cap off the worst
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month for the nasdaq since october 2008 the depths of the financial crisis nasdaq composite down 4.3% the dow going out with a loss of 980 points or so that will do it for me on "closing bell. have a good weekend, everyone. i'll send it into "overtime" to pick up this breaking coverage of the sell-off with scott wapner all right, sara, thanks so much welcome to "overtime." you just haerds the bells. we're just getting started here. in just a few moments i'll speak to jeremy seagal on where stocks could be heading next. next week major companies are reporting their earnings and all of it will drive stocks. we begin with our talk of the tape and this brutal day, the worst for the nasdaq since the dark days of '08 has april been and now a treacherous may looms. what will it hold for your money?
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