buy. >> yeah, even some of the questions that are around this transaction, you know, sort of hangs in the balance, but think it is going to go through and maybe likelihood is much better than not, but we're going to see. victoria, i owe you another appearance i apologize this is so short i'll let you go. i'm out of time. victoria greene joining us i hope you have a great weekend. "fast money" up now. >> closing out market with a major sell-off nasdaq down more than 13% this month. the s&p off to 9%. dow down 5%. next week a fed decision, so how should you position yourself now? plus, charting a course for safety the chart matter is here to tell you where you may be able to build a defensive position in the market and later, shares of alibaba trucking the trend today, a look at why the biggest tech stocks in china ended the week sharply higher this is "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of times square. i'm melissa lee. tim seymour, yocourtney garcia n

jeff mills a rough end to a rough month the nasdaq plunging more than 4% today. bringing its losses for april to over 13%, the worst day for the nasdaq since september 2020. worst month since october of 2008 and the highest growth names taking the biggest hit arc fund down 29% this month the s&p and dow dropping today the s&p posting the lowest close of the year, now off 14% off the record high. january 4th. for the second friday in a row, the dow ended the week with a nearly thousand point loss leading the way lower today, amazon, 14% loss was the biggest since 2006 the company cutting $205 billion from the market cap in the last 24 hours that, by the way, is more than two netflixes. as we get ready to kick off a new month, thank goodness, a new month is coming, what is the market trying to tell us

tim? >> exhale. a week when 50% of the s&p reported and i've got a couple more stats we lost a trillion in faang, market cap this month. we're within 20 basis points of two-year notes which closed on a high for this cycle, december 2018, low end of the curve rates are important for equities 20 bits away from back up may 2008 all of these things, but, look, the earnings this week, the good and the bad of apple was for me what i heard about was supply side dynamics, we heard that largely from the companies that reported i thought we heard a little bit of demand side from their services business. but really we haven't heard demand side issues from anybody. and that's the part of this that concerns me when i talk about rates. the consumer is doing just fine right now. if you listen to most of the companies, they're telling you their business is very strong, what the market is doing is trying to price in where we are. fed going to go 50, going to go 50 the following month probably or more.

and when was the last time that happened i'm checking my history book, but i can't find it. >> 50 and 50, potentially 75 what you're saying courtney, are you feeling good about the consumer or do you think we don't know yet the impact on the consumer of all of this, inflation or rising rates? >> we have to continue watching it for sure. i think there is some positive signs with the consumer. when you just look at the spending reports, despite the fact that inflation is high, the consumer is spending they have so much cash they're sitting on after the pandemic and willing to continue to go out. that's where you want to look at companies with pricing power people are willing to still travel, still go out despite prices going up. that's still a positive sign, but we have to continue watching it. >> yeah. i think the consumer has been strong i think we need to keep in mind we have come into this with a consumer that had a higher savings rate we're starting to see them dip into that, access credit and that credit is now going to be coming at a more expensive rate. while i do think that is a pillar of strength for the time being, looking forward, and where we should be pricing stocks on a forward basis, that

is something to keep in mind >> there is a limit to price increases. they can raise the price, but how many -- at what point does the consumer start bulking at these price increases, which we have seen already for the past year, nine months or so. >> yeah. we heard it from some of the staples from the company like gap, where they rely on discounts quite a bit and that's going to be problematic for the companies with pricing power because margins will get squeezed the companies have been building inventory dramatically i feel like for previous demand, not future demand. what kind of situation do they find themselves in when the consumer pulls back, they have all these inventories, they have to discount them, that does concern me a bit here going forward. and i think we talked about this maybe off air last week, but talking about consumer demand and just generally the fundamentals, so the stimulus checks we're all aware of, a stat that made my jaw drop was over the past two years, consumers have taken out $427

billion of cash out refis from their homes. still untapped equity in houses, but now they have to get that at double the interest rate so all of this super charged demand we received over the past couple of years, starting to dry up, just as the economy is starting to naturally slow and i think we talked about this last friday, very similar day, google was the canary in the coal mine. it is a reasonably valued stock that broke below previous year lows and we kept saying, okay, what is the next shoe to drop? amazon was, nvidia was, microsoft is testing the previous year lows i hate to continue to be so negative, but i think that's just the kind of market we're in now. >> it is feeling like big tech is starting to crack at this point. if you look at the market action today, midcaps did better compared to the s&p 500 or broader indices. >> smid and small caps, they're supposed to do better in an environment where think about the economy and think about all

the offshoring and the strength of the dollar is another big stat from this month, we look back on april, the dollar rallied 5% this month. an environment that should be very good for small to midcaps with consumer that does well i expect they'll continue to outperform here. the couple other market things i think about here, we're going into a month of may. if you believe in seasonal dynamics -- >> are you going to say it >> here i am i'm sure guy is listening somewhere. i think the fear factor that tends to overshoot in may, as we get into june, and sets up for great summertime rallies, just throwing that out there the other thing is we keep talking about, hey, facebook, excuse me, facebook hadn't grown this slosloa slowly since pre-ipo they haven't seen that kind of slow growth. the market rallied 20% into the pandemic and we keep talking about these prepandemic levels we were a market that i thought was even a little over its skis going into that period where we

rallied. we're putting all companies, especially amazon and try to weigh them where they were pre-covid, and i think that's the exercise, i'm concerned about even where we started. >> so where -- the question i guess is for people at home now, when is it time to start thinking about buying or it feeling when you look at the vix for instance and we're 5 points off the 52-week high, not typical mixed action, do you start thinking soon? >> i think you should start putting together a shopping list, certainly. the vix being at this elevated rate can -- keeping in mind the regimes we have been in historically have been sub 14, sub 12 levels. i think this is an opportunity for you to actually be using options to get into positions. and that's why part of the reason why i think we continue to see such an elevated rate in the vix, people are putting in call positioning as opposed to building in core positioning now. >> selling calls on long stock

>> selling calls on long stock and buying calls as is opposed to buying core positions so i think options are a way for you to lever into that and then as we start to look better from a technical standpoint, you start to sell a more core position. >> i don't think it is a bad idea to start the dollar cost average in here. we had a sell-off, especially in tech i wouldn't be surprised if we see a bounce here. but i think you want to make sure you're taking advantage of that we're looking at the consumer now and the sentiment for where they think the markets are is at historical lows. there is this euphoria, people were get nervous, it could be a good sign. so just start to get in slowly. >> i'm going to try and be the sunshine on the desk. >> as you always are >> actually i'm not, but, jeff, isn't this just all positioning ahead of what will be a 50 basis point hike next week is this just sort of pregame for

next week's fed party and next week will be fine or okay? >> yeah, it may be but i think i alluded to this on twitter, i think, last night, when you see these huge moves of 5, 6, 7% into earnings and then see these 10, 15% reactions to earnings, it is indicative of a market that just doesn't know where to price a lot of these stocks i think it is because of the federal reserve. we know we're getting 50 do they do what they say they're going to do? i think these are important questions to ask ourselves one thing i think i'll add a little bit of sunshine here, look at amazon and look at facebook this week just as examples of the megacap tech stocks, amazon came into the week with the highest pe ratio, 53 times what did amazon do this week it was down 10, 11%. i don't know where it closed today. facebook was the opposite. it came into this week with a 14 times forward pe, and what did it do?

it was up for the week so it doesn't mean that facebook is going to be immune to future selling, but at the same time, it is clear that some names have rerated from valuation standpoint and some have not the market is giving those names some credit for better valuations i do think that's important. today was also indicative of that i think the qs were down 4.5%, facebook down 2.5% if you have to be long, i think the valuation is important now. >> i saw what you tweeted about this -- the big swings being a sign the market doesn't know how to price in the risks that we face right now, but i think that applies to the big moves upside that we have seen. it works both ways i think we just don't know what the upi'side is, what the downse is, we don't know if china is going to get worse, not to bring the laundry list as to why you should be gloomy, but this is what -- this is the struggle that the markets are having in terms of finding a valuation for the names. >> and i think apple would be

the place i would go right there too. it is a company that extraordinary numbers, but let's look forward we know how great of a quarter it was i look at a company that ultimately at 27, 28 times, which is a hybrid multiple between hardware and software business, do i pay the same amount for april until this environment? apple, where you had a buyback announced, a company from a dib perspective, this is a company that big and large pension funds and people need this kind of income and predictability, it catches a bid for that reason alone. at a time when you're competing now with interest rates for those kinds. so apple is not worth what it was yesterday. even though apple as a company, gene munster said this last night, they're continuing to execute on a product cycle that is incredible. i don't think we're paying the same amount today. >> what struck me as ironic was that there are some concerns about fidelity opening up bitcoin to retirement accounts, saying bitcoin was going to be too volatile and we're seeing

massive swings, in big cap tech names, big cap stocks, amazon, up or down 14%, facebook, the same way how do you regard risk in your portfolio in this environment because where people used to go to find relative safety, now seeing big swings as we see cryptocurrencies. >> yeah, well, i think the good news is to your earlier point that you're getting downside swings and upside swings and where you're getting upside swings where the valuation is already been beat up so you can get a little bit of a sense in terms of how companies are going to react to different pieces of news based on how they have been priced to date you look at the companies trading above tipple multiples, even if the earnings or other information is pristine, they're still getting sold i think that's problematic as it relates to bitcoin, i saw an interesting chart a couple of weeks ago, and if you look at

high beta, low beta stocks in the s&p 500, the top beta companies, the lowest beta companies, and you chart that up against bitcoin, they're moving almost in lockstep, that high beta factor in bitcoin have been very highly correlated this year i think that probably continues here as we move forward. certainly no sense in trying to hide in a place like cryptocurrency likely worse there. >> let's bring the chart master in for more. carter worth >> let's -- before we look at the charts, i think it is important to say this, that the most likely setup or history shows that the precondition for shocking with weakness is weakness and so just look at -- let's take the 2007, 2008 period of the market, before we look at the chart, what we know is the market had gone down for a year, peak in october of '07, october of '08, down 30.

question we came in on monday, and the market drops 23% that week think about 1987, we were down 17% that fateful sort of friday -- october 16th, that monday the 19th, we dropped 23%. the precondition for weakness, shocking weakness, is weakness and the question is, it is tempting once it gets overdone, this is -- we got the nasdaq down 23%, the s&p down 14.5, 15%. and so i just would resist the temptation to think oversold, overdone, cheap. yes, maybe as jeff was saying something like facebook, which truly has been rerated but my goodness, what if many more things get rerated as badly as it has been rated or netflix. that implies much lower prices let's look at the chart of the s&p. there are unfilled gaps below. immediately below, of course, is the one from a year ago.

it was the 5th of april, 2021, and simply getting there would be about 3% lower. i think that's a lot, we'll get that probably next week. the real question is is it finished we haven't had a capitulation day and you typically will see that now, can you buy things in principle? i think it is best to postpone all new buying how about this home building up on the week the ishares, here sis a monthly table. outperformance down ever so slightly the trailing one month, but on the week actually, the ishares home construction etf was up up this week they're very few things that manage that. and here is an instance where they were rerated lower for such a long time, i think they're stabilizing and if you have to buy something, it is as good an

area to buy as any. >> wow, carter it feels like we're trying to pull teeth out of you getting a buy in the market. we have seen so many things -- i immediately thought -- is there anything that carter worth would think is so bad, it is good, because i think a lot of people out there at home might think, you know what, this drawdown in amazon has got to be is bad, it is good. what do you say? >> yeah, i guess i'm inclined more toward facebook, netflix, something really dropped in the order of almost half amazon is bad. but amazon was just day one. it is not duration-based facebook has been declining for a long time. there are people who just today finally abandoned their amazon, to say there is plenty others who haven't. it is a well loved stock, it is well owned, and there is a lot of capital that could come out >> all right, carter, good it see you. thank you. see you on "oa," 4020 is his

level. netflix and maybe meta is worth putting on your list tim, what do you think >> i look at meta, i'll push back on jeff to say i just think these kinds of rallies, massive rally, but still failed at the 50 and it was more oversold than anybody. and if the question at facebook for the last year and a half has been around quality and d rating of a company that isn't even around the broader market and what we're paying for stock ets, facebook, we questioned what we have been paying for facebook for three years. no reason it should outperform now. we heard from them it will take years for them to monetize the metaverse. i don't like we have defending 330 on the triple qs or 220 on the semis and the s&p closed to a fresh low today. on the lows. so these are things that at least from technically, carter makes it sound like, hey, it is a foregone conclusion the next couple of levels next week, who really knows that's the issue buying oversold stocks and saying there is a handful of ones, i say you can't invest in

a bad neighborhood right now the market is a bad neighborhood. >> that last point, tim, spot on we were here yesterday, talking about how can we be more constructive going through this earnings period. the backdrop, the macro economic backdrop, we are not in an accommodative situation where you can sit here and try to catch falling knives the continued volatility that we have seen, facebook down, whatever it was, 35%, it popped up 18 and i think settled around low double digits, that intraday and continued volatility is telling you there is still a jostling between buyers and sellers. that's not where i think it is established, base core positions. i think you still continue to invest via openings in the short-term, and then slowly as courtney said start the dollar cost average into a core position. >> over to mike santoli, in omaha, ahead of the berkshire hathaway annual meeting. it is the first time this meeting is being held in person since before the pandemic. we do want to get your thoughts

on this major market sell-off, mike we're talking about capitulation, the fact there aren't too many signs that one has been here. >> no. i wouldn't say there is anything particularly definitive. it doesn't check off every box it is one of those things where real ugly close on a friday, all the trend followers are basically kind of pushing in the same direction lower so you have that against you so i don't think there is a moment when you can say, okay, it is here, this is the flush we were looking for we're in the general zone. the market certainly, though, has passed up a bunch of plausible reasons to find some traction in the last couple of weeks, right it was april, obviously you had some decent earnings last earnings season, once we cleared through the big tech earnings, the market kind of released higher after a construction and, you know, i think it is worth keeping in mind, we did get a bounce in march whether we got the actual confirmation of what the fed was going to do after having sold off into it.

and the stock buyback window will reopen. i can point to a lot of different things, but just in terms of market action, you have to say, you know, it is definitely a show me situation and there is plenty to prove, ugly friday closes as a reason that people say, you know, they're untrustworthy for the buyers >> interesting, mike, you mens mentioned the march bounce here we are with the possibility that 75 basis points is starting to be priced in the market for the hike after next week so that adds yet another layer of uncertainty to the markets here as it sort of, you know, faces off with the bond market because the bond market sees this already >> exactly bond markets race to the spot where it seems like the fed is going. the stock market, not as linear, it is not the only thing that matters to the equities, the path of the fed. i do think there is a case to be made that that piece of things

is psychologically priced in but it just doesn't leave you a lot of daylight. doesn't leave you this long runway to say, yeah, now it is time to reload on risk because of a lot of the play in the range of outcomes out there. there is also the sense out there that the fed is not unhappy to see equity valuations come down, if it happens in the continued orderly way without big dislocations, the way it has been so far, because equity valuations is really the one piece of -- that goes into financial conditions that haven't really tightened up to what you might consider more neutral levels yet all those things are in the mix. at some point, people get too negative, it becomes a buy, maybe we get the pendulum swing in terms of reactions to earnings next week, even note bulk of the market cap is already recorded. >> tell us about what's going on behind you, mike how many mascots have you taken selfies with so far? all of that. >> i have made a cursory circuit

around here, i think a lot of selfies with shareholders, that's for sure, with berkshire hathaway you see inklings of concern. i got multiple questions, is the s&p going to break 4,000 this is a crowd that is around for a few cycles for the most part they're probably pretty happy to see how berkshire hathaway shares have outperformed pretty nicely in the last year, the last few months even coming through a lot of this, they get that quality premium in there. so i will say, first time for a live meeting in a few years and people are definitely embracing it they crowded in here pretty tight so far today >> mike, good to see you mike santoli quick programming note here, you can catch the entire annual meeting right here on cnbc.com, starts tomorrow, 9:45 a.m. eastern time so you got buffett this weekend,

a slew of earnings next week, the fed, the jobs report it is a busy week, courtney. how do you start thinking about the week given the sell-off we saw today? >> well, clearly i don't think the earnings are what's driving the market now earn ings have been good other than amazon which is grabbing our attention. i don't think earnings is what is going to be driving this. it is the fed and what is happening with the jobs report it is what is happening in the macro economy, that's what people are worried about moving forward. >> yes. >> i think it has been a tech sell-off so far. i think there are other opportunities of interest rates do continue to rise, inflation is there, you want to make sure you have inflation hedges and that's something investors want to continue keeping their eye on. >> invest like buffett, though if you think about it, this is the ultimate long range investor, the ultimate opportunist you see the sell-offs, what he did in banks coming out of the financial crisis, you know, look, he's typically by the way berkshire tends to be characterized as a financial, even though it is now according to at least the 13 -- from year end, this is a 43%

apple stock. one of the reasons it is so defensive, apple is so defensive. you look at the other holdings in there, what we expect about warren is he is ice water during these moments. he's cool, calm, collected, long-term and outperformed over time that's the message to investors here if you're buying great companies and top holdings include bank of america, coca-cola, craft heinz, these are companies that will be there tomorrow and the case of coke and heinz and they outperform in this environment. >> what is defensive in this market, jeff is defensive today the same as defensive was a week ago >> i think in terms of what's going to go up in the market when it is going down, i don't think anything is safe now back to my comments earlier in the show, i think the valuation matters. it is not a great timing tool. i think in this market, investors are looking for companies that rerated and can still show reasonably good profitability in a economy likely to slow what i'm heading into next week, i said it last friday, i want to

see how facebook reacted this week, it was a stock that rerated, i wanted to see the reaction, was the market giving names credit for that rerating i think amd is somewhat of a similar name here, i'll be watching that closely. i want to look at apple, tesla apple specifically, it is one of the names that hasn't cracked yet. sitting right on that rising 200 day moving average what does that do next week. and then finally from an earnings perspective, a company like starbucks, for example, exposed to retail, expose to higher prices in china, but the pe is at its low end of its range. what does a stock like that do after it reports all these things will be telling. it doesn't mean the stocks are going to go up when the rest of the market goes down are investors giving credit for low valuations and still solid fundamentals that's important to determine indiscriminate selling from investors that are trying to pick their spots finally. >> which earnings report will you be watching? >> i'll look at starbucks. i think it might be a

challenging earnings season for them, given where the consumer is, given the head winds they had in terms of employment and labor costs and the unions around them. that gives you a barometer it is like a ubiquitous name, everyone expects to have their coffee in the morning. it gives you a pulse of where we are from consumers, where we are in terms of work and traffic. >> inflation, wages, china, all wrapped up into one. fx. >> i'm fascinated by uber and lyft uber, this is a company that hasn't made money, we're holding those companies very accountable in this environment. and the reopening trade alive and well. >> time for the final trade. did you notice they took no commercial breaks? jeff >> i'm going to be a seller of apple here see pain in the name for the market to bottom. >> courtney? >> energy trade, chevron here. >> cvs, low valuation, and

elastic demand >> tim >> walgreens, i think it is the same place there are parts of retail that are very defensive, parts of the pharma business picking up some steam and tis a safe place to b on valuation >> that does it for "fast money" on this friday don't go anywhere. "options action" is up right after this esg is responsible investing. who's responsible for building esg into your investments? at pgim, the pursuit is on for outperformance. as active investors, to outdeliver with customized strategies, integrating esg best practices into our investment decisions. as asset managers and fiduciaries, to outserve,

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