sold off hardly. are >> we're going to have to see if they add the 5 million subscribers we think they are. netflix was industry wide or company specific >> guys, thank you i'll see you in the o.t. "the exchange" begins right now. thank you, scott i'm kelly evans and it's a new month, a fresh start and we were hoping maybe a fresh start for the market but the worst month in 14 year wheres. the nasdaq joins the dow and s&p, which have also turned lower. one of our guests insists we're close to the sell off. weal are say why and what are his plays. weal are look at the least bad stocks and we're just 48 hours away from a huge fed meeting everyone expecting a half point

hike and here to explain why peek inflation talk doesn't matter and the fed can't afford to be complacent but first out to bob with the latest on these markets. bob. >> and kelly, we are are essentially sitting at the lows for the day and not a lot of conviction by the dip has been replaced by sell the rip let's look at the major industries s&p 500 nearing the lows of last may. not quite there. dow industrial just below the sgoo sfwift-week low it's essentially at a 17-month low. some of the beaten up tech media telecomstocks are are bouncing a little bit paypal has had a horrible start at the year. netflix. they're all bouncing nicely although off of their highs. not a lot of convictions banks a at new lows. all the big money center banks

goldman, morgan stanley. bank of america has significant china exposure citigroup also goo-week low. not just tech. industrial boeing, rockwell, general electric kumens engines at 52-week lows as well. finally a stock that was an out performer last year, nasdaq. a new 52-week low. dramatically out performed last year on all the tech trading and transactions obviously equity clearing and tragd new 52-week lows >> thank you very much and 2.99% on the 10-year today why are yields suddenly swieking after taking it easy amid the stock sell off last week rick >> you know, the lead up to the federal return meeting should never be underestimated.

it's like getting ready to go to a doctor's or dentist's appointment. the markets get nervous and you can see all maturities and all maturities rights now, across the am tire two lou 30, the cycle high yield closes and it's almost back to back. we miss bi3rd of the basis points in maturities on friday the notice that when it traded above 295, it hit a big pocket because that was the previous high close and that takes us oo november of went 18. since we closed up here. however, let's do zoom we're so close to trading back to 2008 with respect to where yields are as we start to trade and hold over 3% 10 year very similar and look what happened when it traded above the previous day's highs. boom, another air pocket hit and we trade above 294 and right

now, if you zoom it, the highest yield close at 2018. you see what that high is? that high in november of 2018 is 3.24%. which means all your technicians in reare search land are going to say three and a quarter, three and is a quart rber. zoom that back to february 2011 because then we get the to yields we haven't seen in years. one of the reasons why yields are going up, beside the fed meeting is remember, all stimulus is fuchgable. ifthe u.s.

>> inflationary pressures are reetreating. david has been warning investors that a hawkish fed will have to go over the market now he says they'll have to act hawkish and stay hawkish no matter how inflation is in the long term. what's it all mean for investors? david is the chief market strategist at jeffreys good to see you again and you're not about tosay the battle's been fought. here a we go now we can all have smooth sailing ahead from here. why not? >> first of all, kelly, we're just beginning this tightening cycle. wore going to get a 50-basis point move we had the 25. we're going to get expectations set in stone with theal baance sheet and i think we're going to discuss how the balance sheet might get more quickly wound down in the event that inflation

does not come down faster and thatted can be through things like asset sales, which i think we've also discussed i think the market has to be prepared for the fed really setting up to battle one of the largest or the largest inflation move that we've seen in nearly 40 years something that none of the fed officials have ever experienced. they've never sat on a committee when inflation was at these levels >> do you think they're going to use the meeting to prepare for a 55 basis point in the future >> i think that's possible i think we're going to find if they go too fast on the front end, they're if wing to invert this curve, much like at the beginning of the year and then they turn to the balance sheet and opened that line of thinking up as a way of also tightening financial conditions

and the curve steepened back up. i think they're going to focus more on the balance sheet to make sure they don't invert that curve. a 75 could really rattle the curve. and i think shake a little bit of confidence in their ability to either execute a soft landing or do this without some sort of major effect on growth that said, i do think a case recession in this tightening cycle is probably a very reasonable base case that we're going to get >> a base case recession, which is similar to what we heard from one of the former fed officials. we'll have that later in the show you're basically saying there's no way they can avoid a recession at this point. is there anything they can do? >> i don't think we should is all get that scared about this a couple of quarters of negative growth surrounded by a couple of quarters of positive growth is not the end of the year. weevl are only averaged a little

under 2% since covid first began. i think we have to accept that this inflation scare, and whether it's come from over aggressive policy or from supply shocks, doesn't matter it just has to be dealt with and we're going to take the medicine ia feel it today, for the last four months. but we got a heck of a run and we have the tools to deal with recessions too, if we need to and it gets really bad, we've done that in the last two recessions pretty well i think the number one priority is getting this inflation down and the idea that somehow a little growth scare or modest recession is going to dislodge the fed's movements here to fight inflation is a miscalculation >> do you think the market has priced this in and at what point do you turn more bullish sn. >> a lot of it depends on the trajectory for inflation and

supply disruptions, as well as how the market responds and the economy responds to the higher rates. i think wore going to watch this inflation trajectory through the end of the year. bad comps in the third quarter it's fwo eing to be a dicey one. but i think there's reasons to be optimistic on why growth is pt going to collapse we have a strong labor market wk, strong housing market. a lot of those are are fundamental driven and not rate driven look, we have a negative 1.4 gdp print. and we could get that with the unemployment rate staying low. we have is a lot of supply problems they're different than demand issues i'm not that scared of a recession. i'm more scared that politics get in the way of fed fighting the inflation and that would underline a lot of the

credibility they built up over the last forty years i think jay very much wants to go aggressively against this inflation and think he has the green right to the do it >> what's the point of fed fighting inflation, causing a are recession and responding to the recession, when they could just threat resolve itself >> i say look at the inflation trajectory over the last 40 years. we've come can so far in beating inflation and beating what was a terrible situation for the economy and for the central bank coming out of the '70s and early '80s we are have real risk ares we coulddislodge long term if the fed does not show it control them and it needs to show that it needs to show it can use qe when we need it and take it away when we don't. to the extent that inflation stays sticky and causes gridlock in the economy and there's

long-term inflation expectations get undermined, that really puts the fed in a predicament when we need them the most, we get a ovid, we get a 2008 or we get any major recession. so, i think it's very important for the team maintain the credibility they've earned and i think they're doing that the market is pricing that win inflation expectations in the long end and break evens in the five-year, in five year in particular and they have to keep that and i'm confident in that. it's not always fun and games. we can't always enjoy the medicine of qe >> and we'll know it's time for a new era when the broken hearted hat is gone. >> we still got it rimtser still here i'm still wearing it >> put it away >> we're going to bring back love soon but it ain't time yet. >> i think we went down 20 points just seeing the hat

now, on top of what you just heard, the former vice chair was on "squawk box" this morning sounding his own dire warning. >> i think a are esession is, at this stage, almost inevitable because they don't control supply and we've seen how volatile supply can be with the shut tn in china and uncertainty about oil prices up and down, etc. the probability of a recession is, i think unfortunately, very, very high. >> my next says take a deep breath, relax everybody. the significant damage we've done is behind us. let's welcome in david cats, the chief investment officer you choose to batthal prevailing narrative here for what reason and why to you see things more constructivebly? >> we're taking a longer view. you always sound a lot smarter

during a down market being negative because they're so pronounced and are rurts easy to focus on them and assume they never get better the market is also looking at a lot of the positives stocks are are now selling at about 18.5 times this year's earnings and 16, 17 times next year's earnings. rates are going up but still relatively low we expect relief by late summer, early fall and we're more optimistic about the economy spoke with all the banks and what they're seeing is a strong consumer, strong businesses. so, we think the glass is half full is being priced as if we're going to the recession everybody is talking about you're able to buy a lot of great businesses at very attractive prices. historically, that's been a good time putting money to work >> you like the financials in particular and why

name they're all places you think investors can look >> the businesses are doing well they ultimately will be a beneficiary by higher rates and people are starting to borrow more but you're eyeing them at 10 to 10 and a half times earnings we think it's a good time putting money in them and we're liking more and more of the market we like industrials, select technology there's lots of places with very good businesses selling at really attractive valuations 10/11 times earnings historically you've made a lot of money in that corrections generally, after a correction and right now we're at 12/13% for the s&p. you are recover backio your highs within about five months and those returns and downs occur when they're least expected people will be negtive after the first 10% recovery the time to buy is when things

look very negative but you're getting good businesses at attractive prices. >> let's name a couple of them that youall a so like. alphabet, even our parent company, comcast, which has had a rough stretch lately >> theyhead a good quarter, good outlook. woe think as a long-term can company, great company, great price. we like the management a lot google had a great quarter and that's a really good price for a great business connectivity is electronics. great play second derivatives on a second vehicle a lot of company as are talking about their china shutdown slowing their business they upped their guidance. sell at an attractive 12/13 times earnings they're far more of a communication and wireless cell phone play and they're getting

it at a great price. >> we appreciate your coming on, giving investors hope and strategy thanks for your time today >> great to be here. have a great day quick programming note, brian moynihan will join us on power lunch. we'll ask him about the market, the fed and a whole lot more coming up here big names like meta, apple and amazon are near key levels of support are what happens if they break sfloou we'll ask katy a estaukten and a the tech sector is down 20% from its all-time highs. we're going to look at six pillars of the group to see where the stalwarts amid the sell off are and there it is. on the screen. wish i could circle that can i walk over the? let's walk over there, everybody. you got to see what's are going on right now the 10-year yield -- here i

come 3% there we go, everybody the woman in the shadows pointing out the 10-year yield has punched above 3% for the first time in a couple of years.

if you're a small business, there are lots of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. but when you choose comcast business internet,

you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security. and you choose fiber solutions with speeds up to 10 gigs available to more small businesses than any other provider. the choice is clear: get unbeatable business solutions from the most innovative company. get a great deal on this limited time price with internet and voice for just $49.99 a month for 24 months with a 2-year price guarantee. call today.

yes welcome back to "the exchange." the s&p is nearing the 4100 level that we're going to ask my next guest about we're going get technical analyst from katy stockton, who joins me now the 10-we're treasury yield punched above 3% could you start there and tell us what the implications of this move are >> well, you know it's a very psychologically significant hurdle and yet, it's not really an important resistance level for it we referenced the high, which is three and a quarter. are weevlg are seen very positive or upside momentum behind treasury yields and that's no change today but it is just sort of a round number that we can see as another threshold being cleared by them. >> that means what you think for the implications -- i know

you're bearish still on the market but you say there are are still glimmers of hope does this change any of that >> not really. i mean, we've seen 10-year treasury yields trend higher and sharply at that for a couple of months it's not been good for the equity market. we're watching for more of the same at this point and the same way that treasury yields are are not reacting to over bought conditions, we're seeing the s&p 500 and other major industry industries not retookt over sold conditions it's testament to the momentum in either direction behind both and i think we should assume, especially as these levels and thresholds are are cleared, but to the upside by treasury yields and down side by major embassies, that weal with see more of the same >> it was really 4200 you were watching, especially on a weekly basis. what now >> that's right.

so, that leave as breakdown in our work, pending conformation this friday. about 4200 and that, unfortunately, would mark a confirmed breakdown and for those of you that follow the charts can see the same thing i'm seeing, which is a head and shoulders top potentially. the target level would boo bcome secondary support of awfully 38.15. and it's arer really the best thing, in my opinion, that the, mat lends itself to in terms of risk management. and at least that's a level to help us understand what down side might be. >> i want to ask about specific areas that you're watching we mentioned a blue chip name. but what are the glimmers of hope because everything you're describing sounds like it's sending a clear signals the arer more selling pressure coming >> i mean, i think we know we're in a higher volatility regime or cycle.

and that kind of environment tends to have embassies sideways overall or trending lower. and we tend to see, defensive sectors of the market out perform. outper fourmance doesn't mean they're trending higher. it forces us to live in a relative world where we're looking for out performance and acknowledging the fact that there's down side. it's going to be more difficult to take advantage of any individual stock on the upside we pulled the list of defensive sectors. we were looking for new ideas of which it's difficult to find them because so few have positive catalysts we need momentum buy signals and we're not see ash lot of that right now. we came across proctor and gamble, pg, pulling back from are resistance where are you would expect it to pull back

it hasn't seen the same loss that the broader market has and also it has exhibited very positive relative strength we're looking for the names that have decent are relative strength and trying to stay the course on those while otherwise managing risk by exposure to other asset classes. >> the vices also, the volatility gauge comes up as one that doesn't look terrible is that a good sign, bad sign or a different market than we've been in, in the recent past? >> i think latter. it's obviously an indication of the higher vault tilt regime you can see it afirms that and tellesses us that market sentiment is something we need to pay attention to. and currently telling us that market sentiment isn't bearish enough to suggest we have an intermedium term low at hand they face a minor are resistance level in the mid-30s

be nice to see relief for volatility and upside. it may allow support to be preserved yet another week >> proctor and gamble is our glimmer of hope today. thank you are for joining us still -- still ahead, the union battle with starbucks is getting hotter with the interim ceo taking aim at howard scholz details on what the union is alleging down 36% on the year and the s&p is down 14% in forty-four months, the nasdaq has the worst month since 2008 and every sector is negative is this a normal correction or something more sinister in the works? and let's do a dow heat map check. amex, boeing and visa are the worst performers as the 10-year

touches 3% for the first time since 2018 event planning with our best plan ever. (manny) yeah, that's what i do. (vo) with 5g ultra wideband in many more cities, you get up to 10 times the speed at no extra cost. verizon is going ultra, so your business can get more. ♪♪ in the future we'll travel to incredible places with the help of magical technology. but what about today? i want my magical future now. ♪♪

i have places to go. ♪♪ rocks to climb. ♪♪ sights to see. and flights to catch... i can't wait for what tomorrow will bring, but in the meantime, let's enjoy the ride... ♪♪ cal: our confident forever plan is possible with a cfp® professional. a cfp® professional can help you build a complete financial plan. visit letsmakeaplan.org to find your cfp® professional. ♪♪ your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire flexshares are carefully constructed. to go beyond ordinary etfs. and strengthen client confidence in you. before investing consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses.

go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully. welcome back, everybody. take a look at star stocks at starbucks trading at their lowest level since july of 2020. union reps are out with a letter filing a charge with the nlrb against starbucks and interim ceo, howard scholz kate >> hey, kelly. the union alleges in the filing that starbucks, via comments made by schultz violated the

national labor relations act comments were made to u.s. store leaders last month that they were reviewing benefits program and that new benefits couldn't be extended to stores that haven't been unionized without separately contracts said they had an immediate and profound chilling effect nationwide it offers workers to testify that starbucks baristas read about the comments shortly before voting and some pulled is support last minute. as a result, costing a union win at one location in virginia and claims store managers have quote parroted the comments have having a coerse vs effects and saying, quote, this is not a matter of howard's choice or opinion. this is the law. any new benefit cannot be unilaterally given to stores that voted to unionize during a collective bargaining.

howard remains to build the future of starbucks with partners side by side. really, for the first time, the unio scholz actions in particular saying they were in vailation of the federal law >> and interesting to watch amazon and starbucks to come out much more strongly as they continue thanks for are bringing that it to us. you can read more at cnbc.com/pro and now to a cnbc news update. thank you very much. a form orphiladelphia police officer is being charge would murder for shooting a young boy in march the district attorney said ed sol mendoza is facing charges, including murder he's accused of firing three shots at the boy during a foot chase, the final shot went into his back after the 12-year-old threw his gun away and was lying facedown

on the ground. a former new york city police officer who claimed he was acting in self defense has been convicted of assaulting a washington cop during the january 6thth rb capitol attack. webster, seen here, was accused of tackling the officer and grabbing his gas mask. and russian soccer teams, including the national team, will not be playing in european competitions next season are andue afau has thrown out the country's bid to host the euro tournament. in response to russia's invasion of ukraine tonight on the news with shep smith, the raucous republican primary being vacated by republican rob portman two of the frontrunners came close to a first fight during a debate weal are see you in about half an hour. >> thank you still ahead, if you thought

supply chain woes were over, think again. why the supply chain could be snarl aed for years to come and what needs to be done to get 'rba itwcourse wee ckn o.

♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

welcome back we're 48 hours from the fed's decision wednesday and the fed hfs also embarking on an afwreszive shrinking of the balance sheet. they're doing quantitative tightening at twice the pace of any previous drawdown and the fear is aggressive rate hikes could be messy for markets and the economy. joining me is the chief economics commentator at the "wall street journal." what would you say, ahead of this meeting though, to a pretty concerned investor base? >> i don't think i have much that's very comforting, kelly. as you and i have been talk about, the fed's got a real problem. all they were trying to do prevent inflation from going up. and i think that's one of the reasons they're in this rush to start run offs on the balance sheet.

as you were mentioning a minute ago, the last time they did this, in 2017, because inflation was so low, they weren't in any hurry and proceeded gradualy, maxed out at $50 billion a month of run off they wanted this to be as boring as watching paint dry. but inflation is 8% or higher. they want to get the rate down and basically waited too long to start the process oaf tightening financial conditions that's one of the reasons they're going to ramp up quickly and do it much faster. unfortunately, for investors, they're going to be much less swayed by the pain in the markets than we're seeing today. it's going to make much less difference to them in terms of how fast they go >> the goal is more or less a tightening of financial conditions what about the supply chain piece? a lot of what you're saying is predicated on wage gains and

inservice inflation. we shouldn't discount the supply chain. >> inflation is occurs when demand exceeds supply. what central to is move interest rate ares around they can't do anything about supply and we have a situation where are we have strong demand. first it was like covid, then russian invasion of ukraine and now protectionest actions and other things going on. indonesia banned exports of palm oil. the thing i worry about is we're facing many years where an environment keeps throwing up siply shocks because of this it's not just a period where we had strong demand and price spirals, we had one supply shock after another. that just makes life really hard for central banks. >> because if the fundamental

problem is too much demand, you creit shortages everywhere if the fed doesn't fix this, politicians are going to try to. and we've seen pretty interesting proposals aimed at containing inflation and the longer this becomes intrenched, the more political fire power, that fiscal policy makers are going to have to bring this down their way andcreate an economy less dynamic and more inflationary in the medium term. >> it's not encouraging when the best solution congress can come up with is cut the gasoline tax at the federal or state level. so, that is not helping. however, let's step back and look at the cyclical picture for a moment one of the things in the market is i think we have three hits to ecom and growth happening at the same time.

first supply shock like higher energy prices and higher food prices second of all, there's no more fiscal stimulus. the degree of fiscal tightening is almost a record and the fed is urk withing on the short term interest rate and long-term rates. they're up more in the last six months than any six month period back to 1994 that's a triple barrelled dose of economic head winds the market and economy are going to have to deal with. painful as it may be, these forces will start to have the usual, predictable effect on demand and inflation >> in which case, maybe we can get back to normal after a tough year of sailing ahead of us. we thank you so much for all your time with us. gregory from the "wall street journal. still ahead, we're digging through the wreckage to find names holding up in what cnbc is calling our six pillars of

techple p. - look, this isn't my first rodeo, and let me tell you something. i wouldn't be here, if i thought reverse mortgages took advantage of any american senior or worse, that it was some way to take your home. it's just a loan designed for older homeowners and it's helped over a million americans. a reverse mortgage loan isn't some kind of trick to take your home. it's a loan, like any other. big difference is, how you pay it back. - find out how reverse mortgages really work with aag's free, no obligation, reverse mortgage guide. eliminate monthly mortgage payments, pay bills, medical costs, and more. call now and get your free info kit. - other mortgages are paid each month, but with a reverse mortgage, you can pay whatever you can when it works for you. or you can wait and pay it off in one lump sum

when you leave your home. - discover the option that's best for you. call today and find out more in aag's free, no obligation, reverse mortgage loan guide. access tax-free cash and stay in the home you love. - you've probably been investing in your home for years, making monthly mortgage payments, doing the right thing, and it's become your family's heart and soul. well that investment can give you tax-free cash just when you need it. - learn how homeowners are strategically using a reverse mortgage loan to cover expenses, pay for healthcare, preserve your portfolio, and so much more. - look, reverse mortgages aren't for everyone, but i think i've been around long enough to know what's what. i'm proud to be a part of aag. i trust them. i think you can too. - trust aag for the best reverse mortgage solutions. so you can - retire better.

welcome back, everybody. tech stocks have been drilled down lately. we're looking for the names that have with stood the sell off >> the nasdaq, it's already down over 20% this year alone what's actually propping up the index? let's break it down to six pillars. software, hardware, cyber security, the cloud and 5g i want to hone in on three, starting with hardware of all the tech giants, not only are they facing antitrust issues but providing a sobering warning about the upcoming june quarter. we're seeing broad declines across pcs, servers and hard drives

the best of the batch include hp, enterprise, teledyne and corning. the downward trend in hardware is weighing on the chip sector the best year to date include texas instruments, an log devices, intel, broadcom, and qualcomm all in the red and selected qualcomm to provide technology for the next generation of autonomous cars. it's not all a sea of red. cyber security still chucking along, despite many firms remaining unprofitable sale point up 32%. leidos and check point up double digits just this year alone. we can see, by many of the the out performers that big tech isn't saving the day this time around >> to put it mildly. so, with none of the names she mentioned yet but there are names in these sectors that

could be safe haven buys here. founder and president of jewel financial. your three picks across the six pillars. what are they? where do you look and what would they be? >> thanks for having me, first of all we're going to have to drill down deeper. names i think a lot of people might not be familiar with to find value the first is the security pillar and we like net scout here it's a small cap they had an outstanding fiscal 2 quarterback in november. we're going to watch closely to see what they say. this is a company trading 15 times forward estimates. a little bit more than one times book with $7 per share in cash they're servicing, basically the energize software world with their energy solutions and poised to prooefr their upside the second one in the semiworld

and you have to drill down and they make a chip with sillicon car bine that services the electric vehicleal market. this company is trying to return to profitability, they also report this week but we like this in the chip space because of the tie to electric vehicles. and finally in the 5g pillar, we're going with siena here w they're the 5g play, helping all things infrastructure. it's trading 14 times next year's earnings. those earnings are set to grow about 25% and it's relatively inexpensive, trading two point, four times sale. a fieskg, a semiand a security pillar is is what we're looking at it. >> it's interesting. we've had similar segments where the theme is if youvl are heard of it, don't buy it.

why is it that we're looking for the really under the radar names, that you almost never hear mentioned on cnbc or read about except maybe 35 pages in >> not yet, right? so, i think we're going through a transition phase i think this market, with as painful and frustrating as it is, you had christina talk about the old leaders and they're falling. and unfortunately, they're taking the embassies down with them because of the market cap it's a market-cap weighted index. what we're looking for is new leadership to emerge and maybe they're the names that end up on the front page in a few years. but we find them before anyone else sfwlo you mentioned net scout and we'll see both reports this week io aren't more nervous about the way earning season has been going. should they let that dust settle first in case there's a shoe to drop >> i'm happy you brought that up

because you're right earnings has been very, very difficult. even if you report decent numbers on semithis morning. great numbers in the stock well off the day's high. there's zero rush here lat these are not earnings plays rights now these are just new themes we're watching we have a smaller than normal position going to the earnings for sure i think if they have good reports, and then they actually sell off on those reports, we'd be looking to that names >> we with appreciate the playbook appreciate your time and markets are extending last week's sell off so, is it too soon for investors to go bottom feeding for some of the most beaten-town stocks sn we're going to get the take next

hybrid work is here. it's there. it's everywhere. but for someone to be able to work from here, there has to be someone here making sure everything is safe. secure. consistent. so log in from here. or here.

assured that someone is here ready to fix anything. anytime. anywhere. even here. that's because nobody... and i mean nobody... makes hybrid work, work better.

♪ ♪ ♪ welcome back everybody, look at these three major averages they are well off their highs. the dow is off 12% off their highs and the s&p is 15% off its highs. the nasdaq is 25% off of its highs. all the major indices here are negative on a 52-week basis and

there are signs emerging as we look at these figures that it might not be a correction. let's get to mike santoli at the nyse >> kelly, in terms of magnitude of the decline for the s&p 500 it's nothing extraordinary the average intrayear decline in the s&p since 1980 has been 14%. so we're right in the zone there. however, exacerbating exactors this time around that does make it seem as if it's a bit more than just a textbook pullback or at least has the prospect to be. one is the losses that investors are taking on the picked number side it's been so much time above the level and when it did, it did pinch equity valuations even more and that's happening when you have slowdown fears. it just reduces the amount of risk taking capital out there if you're losing on the bond side, too. the other part of it is is this 2018 playbook. i was want one that said it was going to unfold this way and

basically the fed stay too tight in a slowing economy and it was more indiscriminate in terms of the selling and we're not there yet, but it was a brief stab down below a 20% and arguably this might be happening without a recession, as well the earnings is still the part that remains relatively steady, and so it all has been about essentially reducing the amount we're paying for earnings and that's textbook when the fed starts to tighten and the profit cycle matures and the mega-caps are dragging on things and finally, kelly, it's still orderly as far as the fed is concerned and the three-year return on the s&p is 14% annualized and that's not exactly like we're cutting into muscle yet >> all right michael, thank you very much mike santoli one of warren buffett's top market gauges continues to show that stocks are overvalued even with the recent sell-off what it is and what it could mean for the next ve in ismoth

market we're back in a moment is just part of the hustle. ♪ ♪ opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. it's raising capital that helps companies change the world. it's making complicated financial concepts seem simple. opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality... ♪ ♪ ...writing new rules and redefining the game... ...and driving the world forward to a greener energy future. ♪ ♪ opportunity is setting a goal... ...and charting a course to get there. sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity... ...is someone who can make the connection. at ice, we connect people to opportunity.

if you invest in the s&p 500 your portfolio may be too concentrated in big companies. this can leave it imbalanced and exposed when performance varies. invesco's s&p 500 equal weight etf, rsp, is spread equally across the s&p 500, which reduces potential concentration risk

♪ ♪ welcome back, everybody. let's take a quick check on the markets. the dow is down 325 points stocks, by the way, started out in positive territory this morning. so this picture has been darkening, unfortunately, as we've moved throughout the session today. the dow is down 1% the s&p down just slightly more than that. it has dipped below 4100 now as you heard from katie stockton earlier this hour. it has come below 4200 and we are well below those levels right now. the nasdaq is holding relatively better and it is down two-thirds of 1% and it is in negative territory. the move in yields and the ten-year note there, you can see in the green in the top of your screen 2.975% and the ten-year yield briefly punched above 3% about 45 minutes ago 3.002 was the high mark, and as rick santelli told us, we've

seen this trading action going into fed meetings before with the sell the rumor buy the fact. another thing not helping this situation right now, remember last week when stocks was selling off we had bond yields moving lower and we had crud oil and the commodity complex rolling over and this afternoon we're not seeing that same trend play out and wto crude up .75% to back over $100 i ba barrel here's a look at the financials and you might think they would react positively, and the spdr etf has taken off here since noon and it's down more than 1.5% and the semiconductors off of the benchmark barometer segments have gone from green throughout much of the morning flipping into negative territory and the etf down half a percent. the tech spdr, the xlk down 0.8% as investors are digesting

earnings reports last week, others are simply looking to reallocate their money as the move, and we hit it shortly after 1:00 p.m the fed meeting on wednesday obviouslwi complex on that note, everybody. thanks for your time here on "the exchange" today tyler matheson joins us with "power lunch." >> thank you very much welcome, everybody, to woet power lunch" on a busy monday. i'm tyler matheson stocks are struggling to shake into may as kelly explained. there are opportunities amid the volatility, always are from staples to chips to homebuilders, we'll take a look at the stocks worth owning in these thre market moves

and the "power lunch" exclusive. a bank of america ceo brian moynihan will be with us and we'll get his take on the fed tightening, a slower economy, inflation whether the consumer is holding on amid that decades-high inflation kelly, we've got a big hour ahead. lots of guests, lots to talk about. >> we certainly do, hi, everybody. and we're near session lows and the s&p down 46 and the nasdaq down 83. so a pretty broad-based sell-off once again and the ten-year yield topping 3% about an hour ago for the first time since 2018, we are just below that level right now. in fact, let's get to rick santelli, he's got all of the latest on these big moves. rick >> yes as we look at the one-week cha charts of the curves, twos, tens, 30s and right up to the water line of 3% and we backed away as kelly described and part of that, of course, is the softness in equity markets it still has a back channel

towards a bit of buying and treasurys, but of course, we all know that the days of buying treasurys when stocks go down, those days, for the most part are gone because treasury is leading the way at the beckoning of the federal reserve and that is the nervousness in the marketplace and you will also see a one-week chart of the dollar index and for the most part it's a positive sign. remember, one of the issues with weak gdp we learned last week down 1.4% was the fact that we have record trade deficits which in itself is a slight positive because of the domestic demand that's a good thing. people want to buy things and the strong dollar, let's them buy more than it would if it was weaker however, here's the dark side of the strong dollar that if you look at other economies, emerging markets there's a lot of dollar-denominated debt in the world because at the time was issued that was a big positive and procuring those dollars gets to be an expensive proposition so wve