22 the second day of the fed meeting. you know what that means "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box." we're live i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and an drou ross sorkin as mentioned, things were pretty calm yesterday this is all happening as we await the fed decision coming later today. right now the dow futures indicated up another 137 points. s&p 500 by 37, the nasdaq by 41. maybe not a bottom maybe it is. at least a plateau as we wait to hear from the fed. the treasury market is sitting where it was yesterday at uft

3% 2.956% andrew >> thanks, becky we've got a lot going on this morning. there's a plan to phase out russian crude imports over the next six months. the plan picked up steam after they backed up the idea. it includes extensions for slovakia and hungary which are highly dependent on russian energy, giving them a longer period for a phaseout if you will joe? >> it's still like we're in this place where they're just going to argue back and forth and ratchet things back up they can do than it may stop it to a certain degree, but the natural gas is what they're so dependent on by doing this, you wonder if they're going to say, okay, we'll cut you off at natural gas too. >> the wind stopped blowing in germany?

you need natural gas, there's no doubt. i hesitate to segue in to steve with that. it's not related at all. it's fed day i'm sorry, steve it's steve liesman did you sleep last night sunny guess you don't sleep all week with a week like this. >> >> no, joe. i haven't slept. i wrote a song, if there's any time left to borrow, i'll sleep tomorrow. >> that sounds like a dead cover. >> i can get you the lyrics, joe. it's part of my fourth e.p. album, my vanity album. >> is that true? >> i actually did some recording, yes, on original stuff. >> yay he's got an e.p.

>> it's not finished i've got some rough stuff. you know who i work with, joe? shaun peleton, the drummer for "saturday night live." >> no kidding. >> yeah. >> >> you are a renaissance man. >> it's forthcoming. let's talk about the fed here. let me do the day job because the night job doesn't pay at all, joe this is a historic day as what it's expected there will be a fast and tourous tightening cycle, one that will riden from the '80s. the fed funds market once again raising its outlook for how fast and furious this cycle will be joe said it already. $95 billion monthly balance sheet reduction.

everybody's looking for the phrase where the fed says it's going to move expeditiously toward the neutral rate. that's the new buzz word it's certainly to get you at neutral rate maybe as soon as the summer. take a look here fuehrer turs market pricing in 3% by year end it had been around 270 as recently as last week and the terminal rate or highest rate in the cycle at 344 in august 2023. it had recently been as low as 313. so the market has added back, i don't know what you call it, 40, 50 basis points of tightening in the past couple of days. why is it's been the pattern since the rising inflation report the fed chair has called the labor market tight to unhealthy level. he received no report. 11.5 million jobs.

there's no reason to offer any relief the fed has somewhere it needs go it's going to get there just about as fast as it can, joe. >> and speed might be of the essence, steve if you do it fast enough, you might get some help from the end of lockdowns hopefully, but we never know some of the supply chain issues have to do with money growth, don't you think? >> he thinks the inflation numbers are going to fall very sharply in the summer. i wanted to read you one of the headlines in his report this morning. he says it's too soon for chair pow toll sound less hawkish despite falling stocks by that he thinks it will be time, he think, by this summer

not the consensus view he said you add base effects and the things you're talking about. ian thinks -- we both follow ian pretty closely he thinks you're going to get this big drop in the summertime and that's going to allow pow toll ease off. he's saying today is not the day powell is going to do that 50/50 and then i think it's possible if you get help from the inflation rate grourks to 25s. >> ian is not arguing that they shouldn't be front end loading this right now, right, because that's the basic consensus. >> yeah. >> you've got to move quickly and sharply. >> do as much as you possibly can, but be flexible by the way, morgan stanley saying the same thing this morning that powell's going to be flexible. he accident want to be optimistic again, that's for sure but if you do get help and the current outlook ends up being

the correct outlook, perhaps they can do a little bit less here >> back to you, you could not get robert hunter. >> we also lost bob harlow. >> uncle john's band, great lear sichlt reminds me of bernie toppin do we still have him >> bernie is still around. there are some wonderful documentaries. >> lyricists, you take it for granted. the melody's important, but the classic -- >> i can't -- >> can you imagine the world without uncle john's band? >> i went to a fish show and they're terrific musically, but they doge have the lyrics, joe. >> you know, we link in a weird day and age. i hit up robert hunter to look at that -- see what was going on with him you know what came up. >> no. >> robert hunter biden i didn't know that was his name.

i swear. >> joe, how do you bring it back to that? >> i tried to hit up robert hunter and that's what came up oh, my god. >> we were talk about it >> you blew the mood. >> total serendipity i didn't know -- >> that's not serendipity. it's the opposite of serendipity. >> there's a method to my madness. >> thank you, joseph. shares of amd are higher after the company reports earnings sales jumped by 71% year over year which also beat expectations and the current quarter sales forecast was better than the street was expecting. every one of amd's line of business grew by double digits up by 6% ceo lisa su will be on "squawk box" later today in the 9:00

a.m. hour. when we return, lyft shares are losing as much as a quarter of their value overnight you can see down by more than that, down 27%, that plunge pushing uber to push up its quarterly report that stock, uber, off by 12% they'll be jumping things before the opening bell as a result, the stock is down, only by 4% right now we'll show you everything that's moving those stoxx when we come back. later moderna expected to report later on. moderna's ceo stephane bancel will join us this is "squawk box" and this is cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairdifference.com he'd crunched numbers day and night. that's it. to maximize profitability.

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spend. it took a toll on uber which is releasing its earnings this morning at 7:00 a.m. originally it wasn't supposed to report until after today's "closing bell," but the stocks starts dropping quickly last night after the earnings from lyft were called people are anticipating maybe they got better results. we'll see in just a little bit by the way, we'll be speaking with lyft's co-founder john zimmer you look at gas prices, what's happened with that it's skpebive. it's a tight job market. you've got to lure people into these these. >> i'm surprised we don't know what we're going to see later, but i think you're not going to see nearly the same

kind of incentive structure as uber. >> maybe they'll start moving their earnings up. >> i think this is a lehman moment -- you never want to use the word "lehman" naeg there was a perriod where banks reported their earnings and were in terrible trouble. lehman brothers, because they wanted to show strength, eased up early. >> what's the difference between the two driving company? >> we'll talk to zimmer about this as well there's been an operational question about which of these

companies, frankly, has better operations >> i mean in terms of the compensation they have to pay drivers. do they have to pay a different structure? does uber do it better, or is it a well-known rant? >> people have differing views there was an argument made over a year or two ago that uber had invested in more than the actual app itself and a loss of the back end systems that actually work with the drivers? >> again, we'll talk with zimmer about all of this. >> what did you say? >> there are not as many people -- can i tell you a story? i had six college women that needed to get back to philadelphia on a sunday night they were going to take an ub sneer let's clarify this was your daughter and friends. >> this was my daughter. couldn't -- wouldn't happen. booked ten different car

every one of them canceled wouldn't do it won't duo to filly and beige they cancel on the phone, come anyway, they put into your driveway, and they get a $5 cancellation fee. >> really? >> yeah. we had to stand out there. we knew they would get $5. isn't that crazy they get to charge $5. >> no. there's a cancellation fee. >> have you ever triem to get in >> this is bad society on both sides of it. if you're going to make it, they've got to show up and you've got to pay for it you can't do the arbitrage. >> you can do it cheaper than philly

you can't get anyone to do it. i would do it for $200 let's talk starbucks it's up in a big way this morning after results that were in line with wall street estimates with the company announcing it's going to be suspending guidance for the rest of the year, setting lockdowns and union push joining us to talk about this and so much more is sara bank of america senior research nachlt good morning to you. >> good morning. >> people were happy extremely happy. maybe life is relative, but people seem to be happy with these results. what did you think >> yeah. i think that's exactly right the results as you said were in line, but when you contemplate

all of the head wynn star buck has been talking about inflation. the fact that the company was able to meet expectations is fairly remarkable and a testament to how strong the demand is everywhere else. people had been guarding themselves for some announcement of investors in partners, employees, and maybe technology, and they gave that the reality is it was relatively modest in nature and we're going to see returns very, very quickly in the form of better. in addition to a billion dollars in the stores, the partners, that's going to be raising of salaries and things like that, investment technology, is that going to to be enough?

>> some of it is $200 billion incremental. they had announced some of the investments before they've had a cease. new partners, tenuring partner this is somebody that's a pork to be reckoned with. certainly over the last couple of years so as we think about the inkru mental investments, i do think they're very specific about what that means, and it means, you know, ensuring there's not wage compression for the tenured partners in the stores to ensure that there's more -- there's less turnover which is critically important to a restaurant i think what they laid out with respect to both investment in wages and technology makes the job easier and frankly more fun as a result are both sufficient to really improve the partner

experience and all of that. >> when i said -- sara, when i said, is it enough, the reason i ask you, you go to a starbucks today and there's a line there's a hydrogen line. that's a great thing in some ways for starbucks but a terrible thing for starbucks the through-put issue becomes a big conundrum insofar as you also have employees who don't feel so happy because they're on a bit of a conveyer belt having to rush through this because there's a line p. >> the short answer is yes if you think about their store operations in america, you're talking about a 10% increase across that's mostly wages, but it has other expenses too it's a nontrivial increase for sure and it addresses exactly what you're stalking about,

which is the complexity has increased as you can imagine with mobile order and pay. it's very, very easy to add a lot of specializations to your drink. so it's the combination of technology and higher wages that ee going to p. >> i think what you heart hin saep on the call last night, they're very foe could on making sure their partners are compensated the way they need to be that's always been starbucks' overriding approach to partners. this is meant to address, you know, all of the concerns. >> sara, i'm asking you whether it's going to work i'm trying to understand whether it's enough, whether you -- the

unions that are in play right now say to themselves, you know what, i'm going to step awade. all of these improvements, does that change the dynamic around what happens, and, therefore, does that change the die nachlic as you think about this as an investment i don't know if you're anti-union per sail. do you want it to succeed, not suck side? >> let me say this if those get addressed that's the ben i think that's the pands this this is on. >> we're going to to leave e coming up, elon musk

there's words he's detailing some of his plans for twitter to potential investors. "wall street journal" report has some detail that we'll bring you back after the break here's a look at winners the inerin in it. >> announcer: this cnbc program sponsored by truist wealth where we focus on person to-to heaven wealth

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elon musk told investors he could return the company tony vesters three yearsafter buying it that's what he said in "the wall street journal" in that report in the newspaper musk has been speaking to investors including private equity firms and reduce the deal he plans to pay. the rest is coming from loans. he tweeted last night twitter will always be free for casual users but there may be a slight cost for commercial/government users. >> i like that. >> i would call myself casual. i need to emphasize that again and again and again. it's something to look at. >> what's so fascinating about what elon is doing -- and i talked to a number of investors about this on monday and

yesterday as well. there are two groups of people he's talking to. he's talking to large investors who are in the company now, fidelities and others. what he wants them to do is roll over into the deal that lowers the price unto itself talking about taking new money and then he's talking to hievt equity money, others and the like what's interesting is he obviously publicly said what he said at that ted conference two weeks ago saying i'm not in this for the money. now he's having to make a business case for why people should roll into this and invest into this side by side with him. of course, one of them is changing the business moodle the other is the tantalizing prospect if he's successful and given the amount of success he's had over the years, it's impossible to bet against the man that he would become so

successful he would turn around and bring it back to the markets. >> what's the interest among fidelities and the like? that would be a trickier seshlgs it would seem to me. >> i think from the conversations i'm having, there's a very mixed view. there are some people who think, you know what, you've got to bet on elon. look what he did with tesla, spacex, the other companies and all of that, and let's get in on the ground floor of this next great opportunity and there are others who say this twitter is actually very, very different from the sort of manufacturing piece. he understands factories better than anybody in the world, but twitter speech, content, media, he's quite successful at it unto

itself on twitter right now, but that that may be a very difficult and different type of challenge. >> he didn't do badly at paypal, but i did ask ron barron yesterday what he thought about this move at twitter especially since we saw the sell offof shares he had a tongue-in-cheek-response, and said, what do i think about the recent drop which was right before the 1200 to $800 decline before -- >> he want stoos get in on twitter, doesn't he? >> no. he looks at every stock differently. i don't think he's concerned by the swings in the tesla shares. >> i don't care if elon makes money. let's see if he says you're worth $200 million

no problem until you try to do it there's a difference between having liquid $43 billion. >> especially when you pledged half of your worth already. >> noebls could think about it they are billionaires to us. >> well, they're billionaires to everybody. >> they're billionaires to everybody. it sounds like a lot of money. >> it is a lot of money. >> then you think of people who made a lot of money over their career and you fount that thigh broke. >> i'm told the minimum to get in is $250 million if you have $250 million, i think there's an opportunity. >> i know people i'd need a lot of help, andrew i sthi we both would. >> okay. i'd need a lot of help. >> we'll talk more about all of this in just a little bit.

when we come back , inflatio nation as we look at restaurants. now we look back at yesterday's winners and losers >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g isfast, reliable, and secure our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers our best deals on every iphone. ♪ ♪

good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square here are the futures, which have improved since we began the show they're up market closed higher yesterday we're all holding our breath though we don't know from whence we go from here, but the fed's going to meet today. i don't know whether the outlook could jar people because we know it's going to be 50. i don't know whether -- is this a buy or sell the -- sell the news, buy the room -- buy the

room, sell the news. >> usually there's a fed drift down during fed minutes but lately it's been a drift up. maybe it's changing over the last few months. we'll see. >> your buddy made a lot of news yesterday, andrew. >> who >> your buddy, paul jones. >> i've got a lot of buddies who are you talking? >> that was kind of a reality check, i think, for a lot of people. >> yep. >> you remember paul tudor jones, davos. >> i do. >> there's a case in china cacall ed coronavirus, which is a wild card. >> look. he was right on bitcoin. >> yeah. >> i mean, in terms of when he came in.

we've got breaking news. cbs health has the latest. we want to get over to bertha coombs. >> we have cvs health well above estimates. earnings coming at p222 per shar on revenue of $76.8 billion. that's 11% year over year and more than a billion dollars over the estimate, and the place where they got it -- by the way, they're raising their outlook, but among the highlights, aetna health insurance revenues were up 12.8% that's where the revenues were well above expectations, revenues increasing 674,000 across all their product lines and medical costs were in line we've been hearing from the big insurers that we're not seeing as much of an impact from the omicron wave and we're starting to see a little boift a return to normal when it comes to medical costs.

in terms of their pharmacy services sales, up 8.5% driven by what they call better purchasing economics and specialty with prescriptions up 5% on new clients despite pharmacy reimbursement pressures. meantime retail sales were up by 9.2% driven by over-the-counter covid test kits offset by a weaker cold and flu season incidentally overall operating income down 2.4% the company setting aside $484 million with florida over open dwroids. that's to be paid out over 18 years. the thing people are going to want to hear on the call is what they're seeing with the medical costs and what their expectations are as we move into the second half of the year in terms of some of those drivers coming from covid testing and

vaccines. >> >> i have to ask. you have a cool mere behind you that says cnbc i was sort of studying that. what is that. >> that's actually a poster that i just printed up and put on there. >> it looks great. it looks great. >> thanks. coming up when we return, inflation in america we're going to talk about rising prices and the tough market at restaurants. we're going to do that after the break. and then stephane bancel will join us a reminder you can watch us any time live on the cnbc app. we're coming back right after this you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

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it's time for the latest installment of our new series called the federal reserve bank of "squawk." this is where we talk to small business owners around the country to try to figure out how they're marraging inflation, wages, and how they're doing as the pandemic recedes our goal is to give you a look at it from the ground level. food prices are surging at the fattest price in decades, piling more stress on consumers who are already stretched thin joining us is willy diegel

it's great to have you here today. this sls kind of a weird place where consumers have a lot of money and there's a lot of demand out there too what's happening what do you see as the sum of all that. >> well, during covid, i built three restaurants and i'm building a house in the ham hamptons i stay busy. i'm involved in so many things to hire and retain people, you paid $150, now another $250 a week if you want to build a restaurant, furniture, equipment, everything is up anywhere from 25% to 100%. a walk-in box, lead time is six

months, maybe nine months, cost is double. then you have all of your product. mae meat meat is up 30% seafood, lobster, up 100%, 200%. so everything you're doing you have to adjust and engineer your menus smarter, wiser, shrink your portions, raise your price as little bit. beer, wine, liquor, allocated. hard to find items, again, distribution is tough. so you have to adapt to everything but the number one problem right now is still -- i opened those three restaurants. it's getting open full time and finding enough staff to fill the positions and that's even in every business across the board, becky. >> willie, it's a tough time to open a business. you've opened three restaurants during the pandemic and have more coming on the way you must have seen something

about this there's a demand and you must have found a way around higher prices. >> being an entrepreneur is not always the easiest during a negative, i try to get positive, and when everyone else says no, i tend to go. i shore up a lot of opportunities to work with them and prices came down i was growing beforehand and i said let me jump on it it's okay about the prices, the inc increase the restaurant business, you don't look to make money the first few years. you buy properties, develop them, build your team first, and you'll be rewarded later great people is what bring your restaurant to life finding good people today, willing them to work is very hard. >> willie, what's the consume err demand like.

>> you say you have to shrink portions and increase prices what does the consumer play? >> georgia was different georgia didn't have as many controls for covid as new york did. now once new york opened up and we didn't have to have the vaccination reporting, injecting for everybody, you saw a huge wave of people then once gas prices hit and got higher and the inflation started getting relevant, the government was telling people it was 8% to 10%, but if you were in the business or any business, you saw inflation at 40e%%, 50%, 10% that would be for geflts and traffic to slow down right away. i seen a huge adjustment they say people have a lot of savings, but i think people are scare and saving still and not spending as much so since gas and inflation hit,

i see traffic had dropped about 20% willie, i want to thank you for being with us. thank you for taking the time to be with snus thank you, becky. i love that green blouse too. >> thank you take care. >> thank you. airbnb, the company hitting a key metric it's the first time it's ever happened for airbnb. atto'sext.

. airbnb said book nights and experience surpassed pre-pandemic levels. that's a key metric. joining us to talk about the latest on this earnings report and some of the biggest movers, chief investment strategist at hightower. a cnbc contributor there were a couple you were interested in, in the last 24 hours. did you buy some starbucks, too? >> i did buy some starbucks, and i'll continue to buy the funny things about starbucks, this was kevin johnson's quarter, so now howard can take it and improve upon it. i thought the comps were much better than we expected, and we knew china was going to be disappointing, and a comp that is ugly, but that's probably the worse that it gets we know eventually, china's going to reopen. now we have a cup catalysts.

now they can invest the money into the company into products, probably food and people and stores so that's good news. then vyou have the september analyst meeting. we'll hear from howard at the vision, the new ceo, permanent ceo. i like it. it's trading 23 times earnings, but stork is down from last july i like the risk-reward here. >> that's weird, isn't it? nothing has really changed at starbucks, to be down 41%. the stock business is tough, stephanie. >> it is, and that's why i always look, this is quality on sale this is like the definition of how i try to invest, right number one or number two, blue chip company, great balance sheet, doing all the right

things, maybe struggling a little bit from the macro, but that gets you an opportunity, at 23 times forward, i like it. >> how could airbnb not possibly be a beneficiary of reopening. maybe we reclose down the road, but it seems to be a no-brainer. but during the pandemic, people were going local and going airbnb airbnb should definitely have better results from here >> absolutely. and we've heard from the airlines, hilton, ex-paid yeah expedia down 14% yesterday that's a buying opportunity to me, because all of these companies and industries are talking about the reopen we've been talking about reopen for a year and a half. a 7% year-over-year growth rate and room nights over 100 million

for the first time ever, that's also really very telling and bookings up 67%. across the board, airbnb did a really good job. only problem in my mind is it trades at 84 times earnings. expedia got hit yesterday because costs were a little higher there are definitely pockets within reopening that you can invest in. >> we'll talk to lyft later. what are your comments about lyft also is uber, should it have been sold? it's a no-brainer, it seems like, and they moved up their report any bright spots here? >> well, actually, i thought lyft's quarter in terms of ebita margins were better. they're making progress, and also the active riders increased and revenue per active rider did better than expected

it was their guidance, as you guys were talking about, because you have to invest this is an investment cycle for lyft, and that's why the stock is down. you want more operating leverage you want to have already had investing happen and as a result, their results are going to be muted. uber, i think, probably the quarter will be fine are they going to heavily invest in the business? do they need to? probably so, but i think that uber is in a better position they're in a little bit more of a balance versus lyft as pure ride share >> you highlighted amd is that -- >> yes >> you add, you subtract, where are you? >> well thrash, that one, too, n and it trades at 22 times earnings so finally the stock is trading at a reasonable valuation. and you know what they said, they continue to gain client processor share. guess who they're getting share

from intel. and we knew that a couple years ago. i would absolutely avoid intel, and amd is trading at a very attractive valuation operating margins, guidance up i really like the story. >> the ceo was on squawk on the street, i believe. >> yep >> thanks, steph >> thank you when we come back, uber moving up its quarterly release after investors hit lyft really hard for its guidance. uber was down in sympathy. it doesn't want to be. right now, uber shares down 4.3% we'll bring you the numbers right after the break.

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welcome back to "squawk box. let's show you the futures right now. head of the open this morning,

we've got news we'll be bringing you in just a moment the dow up 123 points. here's the news. lyft shares tanking after reporting quarterly results, and uber pushing the numbers up a day. dedra bosa joins us with more. i should say from afternoon to this morning >> very early in san francisco that's right they moved their report up, their release up and can you kind of see why the results are better than expected it's a revenue beat. the street was looking for 6.1 it is a loss of $3.04, largely due to that accounting loss from its stake with di di we're not going to compare that. this is what tanked lyft shares. they have an adjusted ebita.

the company expects 28.5 and 29.5 bookings. the consensus was a little less than the low end of that range and we got comments on the analyst call in about an hour's time, he says the driver base is at a post-pandemic high. and we expect it to continue without significant investment this is a contrast to what we heard from lyft, which analyst investors latched onto, that is that they're going to have to continue spending. that will hurt their adjusted ebita profitability. uber focussed on driver supply early on last year they went big with it. 250 million in the first half of

last year. that's the problem with lyft shares that have been down as much as 30%. investors want to know how much they're going to spend clearly very different stories this quarter between uber and lyft, back over to you >> we're looking at the stock moving around. it's actually moving in the wrong direction. it was off about 3% when the news first hit it's now hopping around a little bit. we'll see where things land this morning. but go back to the issue we were talking about in the 6:00 hour, which is there's the spending piece, but how much of this do you think in terms of drivers deciding to drive on uber, drive on lyft is an operation story at this point. >> it's a good question. uber likes to say that now they have the eats platform, so drivers can get business from both sides, but you look at lyft, they have a fleet management services, a rental program for their drivers, and the old sort of saying is that

they were kinder to their drivers. but the manager has been different from a few years ago it's been very, very competitive between the two. there was also some comments that their hlead in the market catego category is at a multi-year high the market position has been stable it's worth asking when you talk to him again, later, andrew. >> one question, what percentage of drivers drive for both services so they can flip a switch and say i'm lyft driver and flip a switch and say i am a uber driver if lyft says they going to put more on driver subsidies, how much pressure does that put on uber, and what percentage of the drivers do that? >> that is a great point because

so many drivers are on both platforms. i don't have an exact number when i get into a uber, i always ask them it is so easy to switch between that so many drivers do that, and that's a really good question if lyft is going to be pouring money into driver incentives, that could be pulling them away from uber. the question, is this a good business both of these companies are trading so far below their ipo prices from a few years ago. it seems like the market has decided that they aren't >> i just, i go back to that old saying when it comes to the airlines you're only as smart as your dumbest competitor if your biggest competitor is spending a lot more, you may not plan on spending a lot on driver incentives, but you may not have a choice >> uber shares haven't moved

that much, i have the feeling maybe investors are trying to digest that big headline loss, due to that didi safety. it's a good point that you bring up u are up are they going have to spend in the rest of the year because lyft >> we appreciate it. an interesting aside, i don't want to say it's hard ter to switch between them, but you lose various incentives. the more you use the uber app, for example, the greater access you have to better, bet ter rides, rides that are closer to you. they gamefy the system if you drive a lot on the system you have access to make more money. and if you try to switch between them, it actually does make your job much harder, and lyft does something quite similar. even though they do have them on

their systems, if you ask the drivers, it gets very complicated to flip the switch at will. >> it's smart, it's making it more like frequent flyer miles i guess it's just the constant a arbitrage. riders are doing it for every car they order it's smart to put those incentives in there to keep them for a long time. >> and you don't want to miss mr. zimmer and wela will have the uber cen

tomorrow we'll discuss all this in the interview. other movers let's get to dom chu who's going to bring us some of those. >> let's get to some of the biggest earnings movers. cvs. the family benefits manager, retail drug store giant easily topping consensus estimates for both profits and revenues, due in part to strength in its insurance revenues and more robust sales of the covid testing products bit way, cvs was raising its full-year profit forecast, that's the reason you're seeing those shares up 0% over the last year. next up, shares of regeneron up about a percent and a half or so the biotech company reported quarterly results that easily

beat analyst estimates in profits and revenues, thanks to its eye disease franchise, also the due picksant skin disease franchise. and we'll end with a check on some of the bigger movers tied to earnings from last night. in addition to lyft, star bbuck up 6%. sales growth jumped by 12% advance the micro, the computer chip maker, gave a strong guidance piece for its quarter and full year. airbnb's up about 4.5% better forecast. it sees booking and nights experiences and everything else around there back to pre-pandemic levels. so joe, there's a good amount of green, driven by fundamental improvements that are schematically going along this earning season line getting back to pre-covid levels and you're seeing that with some of these

names this morning >> all right, dom. great job, see you again i think, before too long >> 8:00. see you then a lot more on squawk ahead, including this moderna ceo stephane bencel will be with us here are the futures, dow up cnbc holding its stock draft challenge. you have $100,000in virtual bucks to play the game can you track your progress, trade to win and play for free maybe i can get my kids to do th lth eyike doing that "squawk box" coming right back your record label is taking off.

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us looks like a big beat for you guys in the first quarter, and you're reiterating your covid vaccine guidance for the year. tell us how you're modeling what you're going to see from the pandemic and vaccine orders as you see cases increase and you expect sales to be bigger in the second half of the year >> yes, good morning, and thank you for the invitation as we look forward, as we've been saying now for a while, as we move into endemic, we wills expect the second half of the year to be stronger. as you know, we are looking to -- omicron booster, which we expect to get approval in late

summer very strong interest, as we see in the virus is muitating to be more and more infectious, and there's waning immunity. you look at those two things together and try to project yourself into the fall, in order to boost people in the fall weva better adapted vaccine that's why we are reiterating the $21 billion position as you know, does not include any contract with the u.s. government >> right, the funding argument goes on in congress. i'm thinking about the fall, though, stephane you had results on a vaccine which was proof of concept, because it didn't include omicron. we understand you having working on a combination of omicron and the original strain which could be what gets selected for fall you expect it to be approved in late summer.

the fda is getting together in late june to discuss which strains should go into the fall vaccine. what if they say it should be ba.2 or what are these sub variants of omicron? could you pivot that quickly or do you believe it will be omicron and that will work well? >> so if we follow the science, and i think the product that you talk about, the clinical data, the better variants, which show superiority against omicron, these mixes believe that the omicron product will provide strong protection against whatever variant is out there. it is true that -- to pick a new strain at the end of june. if you look at the timelines, i don't think any manufacturer will be ready in august to fill a channel with product, because that only gives you till july to

make products in the tens of millions of dollars. we believe in the science that the booster will be the right choice and any company will have to provide protection for the fall >> hey, stephane, in terms of people taking this vaccine in the fall, what, what, what's your expectation, given all the politics around this, given everybody's sense ofbeing, frankly, tired, unfortunately or fortunately, with covid, what percentage of the country do you think actually will get theis booster in the fall, and what does that mean more broadly? >> yeah, it's a great question it's true for the u.s. and the rest of the world. as you knows, the u.s. is actually a small portion of our revenues, compared to the rest of the world indeed, in the u.s., there was not a big uptake of the fourth

dose what i really hope, andrew for people is that people at a high risk, with co-morbidity factors, health care workers, so on, those people will want to get protected. and they had realize that there's waning immunity. if you don't want to get sick, if you want to have a normal of lie, you can go to cvs or walgreen and get that booster. >> i want to ask you also about a group that hasn't had access to the vaccine yet, kids under the age of 5 we know you've submitted your application to the fda for two doses, and the fda tentatively set review dates in june you've submitted data for basically going up to age 18 in different packages you say these submissions will

be completed in about two weeks. so what can you tell us about your expected timing of when this could potentially be available, and if you expect the fda is going to sort of review all the age groups under 18 at the same time or focus on a group that doesn't have a vaccine yet. >> so current understanding, and i want to be careful, because i don't decide what the fda leadership decides they will review all the data for the age group, and -- the advisory board in june so we are working toward a june launch now, given the timeline >> got it, and i also want to ask you about your ginormous cash pile, $19.3 billion in cash, equivalent to short-term investment what are you going to do with all that money can we expect a big mna from moderna? >> the first policy is to grow

the business most companies struggle with product expiry and what comes next where we have a platform, what we announce this morning is a full program to be in place in a few weeks. the company is now -- program. the omicron booster, the cmv, that's for phase three we working hard to use the money outside of infectious disease. and i'm ex-scited that this yea we will have data in patients. if you think about the number of programs that we could accelerate, it's actually quite large. that's number one. number two as you said was licensing mna.

we have done two licensing deal in the last two months the team is very, very busy looking at situations both in the u.s., as well as outside the u.s. licensing for the mnas and then buyback. a buyback in august. we've announced a new -- we believe in this platform and reducing -- in the mid to long term >> all right, thanks so much for being with us this morning >> thank you >> thanks for that interview, meg. you might recall before going public, moderna was a disrupter in the list, it can be revealed on tuesday, may 17 on air. and online at

cnbc.com/disrupters. give you plenty of time to prepare for that what's today's date? >> may 3rd >> you've definitely got to put that on your little iphone thing, calendar-type things of it's tuesday, may 17 put it in your brain when we're going to release that. when we return, we'll get a read on the housing market and how inflation and rate hikes are hitting one area of the market that was flying high during the pandemic, nfts we'll talk to an nft investor. by the way, check out shares of marriott, the chain revealing its results. the stock up by 1.7% airbnb, any hother hotels, anywhere you want to stay, all those are doing great business right now. "squawk box" will be right back. time now for today's aflac trivia question. what year was nasa founded

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now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what year was nasa founded

the answer, 1958 it is the first increase in mortgage demand in months. let's get right over to the breaking data. diana olic's got it. what happened, diana >> mortgage applications rose for the first time since early marches, but i wouldn't get too excited. it was due to a very brief and teeny drop in interest rates last week. but those rates are already back up again, tiny, but it was a change, and as a rushlgts who whoever was waiting to refinance jumped in. really really, it was the home buyers driving the application. applications grew 4% over a week but we are right in the middle

of the spring housing market more inventory is coming out, but not enough there is a sizable move, and they held there yesterday as well as we all await the big fed meeting later today. and for mortgages, it's less about raising the fed funds rate but news on how the fed is taking itself out of the mortgage-backed bond market. >> we were talking yesterday with roger ferguson about that the fed's been a big purchaser of those if they decide to start selling some of those mbss, what do you think the impact will be >> the rates are already going up, but the private markets should come back in. people are looking for good investments, and the housing market is still strong there's a lot of demand out there. remember, you have the millennial generation coming in, better job growth, better income

growth, so people able to buy, and that i would see as a good investment so it's going to be up to more private investors to come in should the fed pull back but we know it is already having a negative impact on rates, keeping them higher. >> diana, thank you. still to come, gary van of t vainer chuck joins us stock right now off by 25% "squawk box" will be right back. 's “dreaming”] [music playing] ♪ imagine something of your very own. ♪ ♪ something you can have and hold. ♪ ♪ i'd build a road in gold just to have some dreaming, ♪ ♪ dreaming is free. ♪

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welcome back to squawk roku has teamed up with apollo the pay tv and streaming channel. lions gate announced there was talk about selling or spinning offer stars. now lions gate combined with starz! with 50 original shows over the next two year in many ways, maybe the streaming war is just heating

up we've got netflix on one side, roku on the other guys and this was one of the last puzzle pieces, independent puzzle pieces available in the market place >> yeah. i don't know we've had discussions that, on starz! someone said, i think it was someone and it was not in a positive way, and we wering talking about, is julia roberts playing martha mitchell on starz! or something? j >> i haven't seen it, but i'm told it's fabulous, though have you seen it >> the point is there are no movie stars left, and they can fall so far to the point where they're on sort of, what would you call the tier for starz! >> it's completely opposite. >> content may be king, but it's got to be something i want to watch.

i remember the real martha mitchell, and i don't think very any i much interest in her or john mitchell >> this goes to the larger issue which is if you are willing to pay up, and that's what apple did effectively. you could argue that apple boughti bought its oscar julia roberts is one of the last bona fide stars in hollywood we're going to pay up to get her and sean penn. >> did you finally see "coda"? did you cry like a baby? when her father was holding her vocal chords >> it's a very well-done film. >> the other thing that this

brings up is lion'sg gate, it will be small enough, and content maybe, you know, are three, there's some questions about it. >> it reminds me once again of our great friend bill murray and "groundhog day." i've got never network interested in me >> qvc >> i have other networks c clamoring. protecting users on social media and the impact of transparency senator chris coons of the judiciary committee is going to join us to discuss "squawk box" will be right back.

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nfts have been dropping in

value. just this morning, elon musk has changed his twitter profile picture to a montage of nft images and then tweeted, i don't know, seems kind of fungible to me >> nft, fungible or not. >> joining ussa is a big believ in nfts. to me, it look like he's saying you may own one are of these apes, but i can put it up on my profile picture. why pay for one of these things. how do you view what elon musk pointed to >> i'm not sure. elon's got his finger on the pulse. and's one of the big projects no the nft space. ki take a picture in front of a lamborghini outside. doesn't mean i own it. i can take a picture outside of

an apartment in manhattan, doesn't mean i own it. the blockchain is a ledger that shows ownership. this is what always happens when there's big technology changes just by clicking or putting a picture doesn't mean that you own it, just like in real life >> right then again, you have to separate, eventually separate the wheat from the chaff >> yeah, that, that is the far more interesting point, everyone who's watching this knows in '97, '98, '99, 2000, wall street gave outrageous, obnoxious valuations, because they sensed that the internet would be one of the biggest shifts. but it did not make sense, and over the last 25 years we've seen those companies, the same thing's happening with the nft

space. the consumer blockchain is going to and profound change for everybody watching this, this minute but to your point, 97%, 98% of it is not going to be, so e everyone needs to think what's going to be the amazon, ebay and paypal of this generation. >> that is what we're trying to figure out you almost need to be a futurist to see how everything fits together so i don't know, internet 3.0. how does it all work you've got blockchain, so you can definitely see ownership you've got a payment method based on the blockchain that can

you transact w yoith with how's it going to work and why does it seem so pie in the sky at this point? what's it going to look like >> the same thing everybody said about twitter. this program in 2007 and '08 would talk about who cares if people are eating pizza or walking the dog. in reality, it was the framework of modern communication. having a double breasted jacket in vr is silly, but every ticket being an nft not getting funded by a record label but by fans, you're talking about profound technology shifts. i've been through web be one and web two, i'm incredibly

empathetic to people trying to figure out these technologies, and it does take a half a decade to a decade for them to really hit the potential, the people that are really most enthusiastic about this. pay attention to who is actually driving these businesses figure out, like, which projects actually have real-life utility, taking advantage of the smart contract in the real world this becomes, looking at the jockeys, p much like picking up stock by the way >> hey, gary, what do you make of the idea that there are so many fakes out there there's some fake nfts some people argue 80% of the nft market place is fake all these folks are having problems across the board. what makes a nft special to the degree it has a residence is its fungibility issue, that it's not supposed to be fungible. the second it's fungible, isn't

the whole thing upended? >> i think this is a lack of education. unfortunately, when there's gold rushes, the reality speech are going to have their worst come out. and to your point, right now, people are not accustomed to be the non-custodial holder of their assets, so people are falling for scams, giving up receipts, clicking on fake links. they're not fungible to your point, they're not the real thing and it's black and white on the ledger and verifiable. but unfortunately, when someone thinks they're going to win something or get something for free, they let their emotion jump in and make early mistakes. no different than all the credit card scams we had in 1996 and '97. when i was helping my dad, all people were saying nobody's going to do this because people are getting their credit cards scammed. it takes time for technology to

catch up and fix some of the vulnerabilities of human behavior >> you started, gary, taking me where i need to go with what you think the utilitarian purpose will be for a lot of this stuff in five years. do you have more for me? and can you, you know, speak slowly so i might, so i might understand go five years, ten years because when you wake up in the middle of the night you go oh, my god, i could use it for that. >> everybody did that withes internet in '97, '98, '99, can i sell stuff can i talk to people every membership will be a nft it can be something you can collect royalties on

transactions country club memberships there's some ways for the issuer of the intellectual property to benefit from the transactions. in this month, had on ebay, there will be tens of millions of disney items sold as collectibles ebay will make it big. the human that tones wowns it, make it big. disney will not. in the future, they will when everybody who watches this says it's silly, i ask how many have, as parents bought mine craft tokens people are going to communicate through the digital assets they

own, but on top of that, they will have a utility, a high-end piece of art may be the access to have dinner with that artist four times a year. that is what the block comchain enables. people will start to see the opportunities within that framework. >> johnny walker partnership >> this is what i don't understand about the f partnership. i don't want to drink wine in the meta verse >> i don't want to drink wine in the meta verse either. >> tell me about this. >> johnnie walker was the icon ix siconic stature item as i march trying to build something, it's a pretty signature moment i'm pretty excited about it, get

this and the physical nft. i think that's the thing people are struggling with. i would much rather drink a glass of wine with you in person but in 20 years, just like doing a zoom meeting, if it feels 83% like we're drinking together, that's better than the fact that we couldn't be together at all because you're in singapore, and i'm in millan. . >> i want to you behave yourself. >> yes >> there's a series one, series two. >> by the way, v-con u.s. bank stadium, they own v brands they're coming, snoop dogg, farell >> drag me i'm not kicking and screaming. somebody's got to do it.

thanks, gary see you later. s chfrmt nts when we come back, chris coons. chf "squawk box" will be right back

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holding a hearing focussing on the impact of social media and the privacy tradeoffs that consumers make of the joining us right now is senator chris coons, the chairman of the judiciary sub committee. and is going to be leading this hearing. there's so much happening right now when it comes to social media, concerns about privacy, concerns about misinformation, concerns about what this will mean leading into the next elections. but there is some bipartisan thought here, some areas where you've been able to reach across the aisle and find things that we should all be able to say yes, this is wrong and we should fix. >> that's right the and thank you for the chance to be on to talk about this. senator ben sasse, republican from nebraska, my ranking member and i will be holding a hearing this afternoon about my proposed platform accountability and transparency act i put out a draft proposal now a few months ago, senator portman of ohio, senator klobuchar of minnesota are joining me in

proposing this legislation it would do ale accept many but important thing. it would allow angle deppic research into the algorithms that drive social media platforms. lots of folks noticed when frances haugen came and testified about how they had information about how their algorithm harms young americans, inning in in particular, teen girls we don't really know what they know about the operation of their businesses and its potential impact so this would be a data driven transparent way that companies o

would be able to push back and say wait, wait, that's getting into our private, secret business critical to our business and the ftc would enforce whether or not companies were fairly giving access to researchers to their data. this would allow congress and the public going forward to be better informed, to understand, based on data, what these social media platforms are actually doing to our society i think that's the right foundation for any legislation or regulation moving forward >> this seems pretty reasonable. this is not something where the far right or the far left is saying, you're trying to steal our platform or quiet our voices or do anything else. i mean, this seems reasonable that everything else is so politicized. does that keep it from the reasonable from actually getting done how much support do you have on this right now what's the odds? what's the likelihood that p.a.t.a., whatever you call it, would be passed?

>> half after today, i'm hopeful we'll get a number of democrats and republicans on board i trained as a chemist and believed in the value of data so that we can understand what's actually going on. i do think there's a path toward enactment. congress hasn't taken any meaningful step to regulate these big social media platforms because there are such sharp differences around politics. this is a way for us to have some transparency, to get under the hood and actually understand the consequences of these social media platforms. >> could you do this without having somebody else along the path stick some riders on it that make it crazy >> that's the challenge of legislating, isn't it? one of the things that will also give us some lift is that the eu is moving ahead with legislation. the state of california is moving ahead with legislation. so what i think might initially have been some industry

resistance, as we have listened to them and modified the legislation in a way that's responsive to the legitimate concerns of industry, and as there are other areas, both a big state in our country and one of the major competing areas in the world there is openness to this type of regulatory insight. >> aneesh chopra, who severved the obama administration came on and said what elon musk is suggesting he would do goes a step further than this elon musk said he would open source the code for twitter so everybody could see it that's why aneesh chopra's kind of behind elon musk taking over twitter though a lot of people on the left are not. >> that would be a positive step forward, if we had more transparency about exactly how some of these

largest platforms like twitter, like facebook and instagram operate. these companies also have rivers of algorithms, and to target how they encourage users to spend more time engaging with their platform, in there is some of the most interesting and compelling data, data about how these platforms drive social division, how they impact our our self-concept or how we see each ourselves frankly, if elon musk were to make twitter open source, that would be a big step forward. >> you mentioned the eu going ahead with it is, i think it's much bigger step, that government can say to any of that's platforms, they don't like what they're putting out there, they don't like how something is affecting their view of democracy in the process.

that's a much bigger hurdle. if all of these companies like meta and twitter and any of these companies have to then go ahead and deal with that, they shouldn't have any qualms about what you're asking >> that's right. as you may have picked up, my stock and trade is being the reasonable guy, the one lowho is putting forward balanced proposal that would make it possible for us to do a better-informed job of regulating this this space you're right, what the eu is proposing is much broad arer and has a much bigger bite >> senator coons, thank you for your time this morning >> thank you okay whc when we come back, the latest on the fed. we'll get you up to speed on everything you need to know ahead of the meeting next. and we've got an interview with john zimmer. we're going to be digging

through that company's quarter the stock up 25% afterts i earnings report last night we'll talk all about it. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc.

good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc we're live from the nasdaq market set in times square i'm becky quick, along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. green arrows across the board, this comes after gains for the markets yesterday. dow futures now indicated up by 120 point, the nasdaq up about 50 treasury yields are just about with are they were 24 hours ago. just above 3% for the five year. meantime, uber in the quarterly report, the company be beating revenue.

uber saw ride volumes increase uber moved its release up after lyft shares tanked on earnings last night we will be speaking with the uber ceo tomorrow. it will be the first time he will be on tv talking about all of this. but just a little bit later this hour, we'll get an opportunity to talk to lyft president john zimmer about that company's results. it's quite, quite the earnings to look at both of them side by side we'll have an opportunity to talk to both of these gentlemen over the next 24 hours together. >> thank, andrew lots more earnings out it this morning. dom, i said you would be back. there are people waiting to go to work because i said you might, and here you are. let's do this and let them get off to whatever they're going to do today >> let's get these folks up to speed and ready for their morning calls, morning briefs and whatnot. some of the bigger earnings

movers besides the uber and lyft story, we've got a big name in hospitality and leisure to get to, it is marriott check out those shares, higher but over a percent around 3,000 shares of volume, this is the world's biggest hotel operator, it reported a profit with a surge in demand in travel now revenue per available room or rev-par grew by 96% over last year travel wasn't going that well last year. marriott also says if demand continues to improve like it is now, it expects to resume its share buyback program. next up you've got shares of brinker international moving the opposite direction, in a big

way. down by 10%. this is the parent company of restaurant chains like chili's it's a weaker than expected earnings forecast despite results at its established locations. that is citing a tough environment for labor and commodity costs. those shares down 12% now. and we're going to end on a massive premarket drop this is shearares of tupperware down 22% t was a miss on profits, a miss on revenues they cite the war in ukraine and russia and fundamental changes made to its overall business so tupper ware shares also down massively 22% in the premarket

i'll send things back over to you. >> tupperware, we used to talk about it all the time. because tupperware parties are so much fun, i don't floknow why that would ever go out of style. i don't understand brinkers. everybody's going out again. why aren't they going to chili's? i love chili's, you know why because of labor costs there's two sides to every balance sheet, income and expenses the bottom line is affected. i'm sure the top line's got to be bet are ter at all these pla. >> people are going out and spending more money, they're willing to go out and spend more money at places like chili's, whether it's for baby back ribs or anything else, but they're doing so in a way that's not allowing chili's and other restaurant operations to fully realize so margin gains they could have in the past this is going to be a scenario where this is a new paradigm

if inflation stays the way it is >> it's hard, anecdotally. what do you think dominoes pays for people who are making pizzas right now? i was surprised. >> i don't know the answer do you know the answer >> i do know the answer. $13 an hour. >> that's it >> i would think that's good >> they can't keep, they can't keep people or hire people >> you look at amazon. >> go ahead. >> they're actually much higher. >> yeah. >> i would say 13 sounds low in this environment right now >> there are places still single digits >> when i turn the screws on him, what's his restaurant chain paying $9 or something. >> it depends on what part of

the country are you in >> just me >> it's you. >> thanks, dom we'll get today's big fed decision in just a few that's the wall. >> those are production cues >> that's why i'm going to qvc central bankers widely expected to hike interest rates half a percentage point in a bid to help tee in inflation. julia coronado, the president and founder of macro policy perspectives you both paid to think all the time about the fed we're expecting really insightful things here, and we need it, seth. it's obvious we're probably going 50 beyond that, what do we know about what they're going to say and what they're facing in.

>> that's a great point. they've telegraphed 50 really well, they've also telegraphed the decision of unwinding the balance sheet and having that runoff start at the june meeting. so i think a lot of the details about the tightening of policy over the next couple months are clear. i think where the surprises come in and where we have to pay a lot of attention is, does chair powell, in the press conference, does he lean in or does he lean out from the prospect of a 75-point basis or does he lean in or does he lean out f i think it has been so well telegraphed that there shouldn't be that much surprise. >> julia, i've had both viewpoints expressed the one is that the fed's going to overshoot because of what, it's not transitory, but maybe it's one-off factors causing this type of inflation. if they go, let's say what seth just said.

let's say they do 50 and they imply they might go 75 could they overshoot is that necessary? >> whethen you say overshoot, you're saying take the funds rate above what people expect to and neutral. that's possible. >> yeah. >> there's two different concepts one, are they going to go beyond kn neutral. their estimate is above 2.5% will they go above that? maybe. not only is inflation high, but the underlying demand in the economy is strong. the reasons they might not have to go that far or that fast is that they are doing balance sheet tightening at the same time and some of that's priced in, but not all of that. we fknow there's some flow effec to this. they have both tools of tightening acting taintat the s

time, and also the other things acting to sloet economy down is the removal of fiscal support. that was if full evidence in the q1 gdp report. are consumers becoming more price sensitive as the fiscal cash fades away? that's a dimension we're watching for in the inflation numbers. there's a lot of things acting to slow the economy down not just the fed fiscal policy, the shock of headline inflation from the war in ukraine and the feds using two tools at the same time,so will they go too far too fast that certainly a risk. on the other hand, we've got an incredibly strong vert irtuous cycle. it's the ingredient to end the expansion. that couldn't look better than it does right now. consumer balance sheets are

strong so i mean, from a fundamental perspective, we've got a lot of underlying momentum to weather this tightening, and i think your question may be one reason that the fed stays at the 50 basis point per meeting base rather than accelerating >> seth, the flip side is that there's some people that think it's already too late of the and that we hear genie's out of the bottle toothpaste is out of the tube. horse has left the -- i dmoon't know what your preference s can't unscramble an egg. someone yesterday said you might need an assassin, like volker, that's ready to just do things that are just unheard of it might work it was very painful at the time,

but it almost ushered in a multi-decade era where inflation wasn't something we worried about about. is that necessary or not >> if i need a metaphor, you're the man to come to >> i'm the man i liked mixed metaphors. but you're barking up the wrong neck of the woods there. >> unquestionably, the fed's going to have to slow down the economy. i take julia's .100% there are other factors that are slowing down the economy as well and therein lies the challenge for the fed. what i used in my metaphor, they're trying to land a jet on an aircraft carrier in a storm they've seen one training film, and they haven't really been through a training mission themselves, and there are a lot of cross winds going on. so it's going to be difficult. but i don't think there is anything baked in the cake that says that they are absolutely going to have to cause a

recession. i don't think that is in a volker style, let's intentionally cause a severe recession to bring inflation down i think there's inflation in the system that is frictional because of commodity prices. but there's got to be some in that inflation as well that needs the economy to slow down to get it under control. >> seth, julia, thank you. i think both of you agree, it's not going to be a walk in the cake for the fed at this point thank you. coming up, is this snee. >>. >> yeah, go, go. >> we'll be back

welcome back to "squawk box. adp private payroll's coming out for the month of april coming in at 247,000 that. that's a miss. march was up by 24,000 the you see at the bottom of the list, the non-farm-pay rolls, this is below that looking at good sector, pretty good, 46,000, service sector, 202,000. but the really interesting part is when you break it down by business size and why this may be true, this is the second in the past three months.

we've seen this massive decline in small business employment, we don't know the reason for that it could be small business is feeling the effect of inflation earlier than others. small business is losing the competition for workers. they just can't pay what big businesses are paying. you see that massive increase of 321,000 in businesses that have more employees moving by sector, leisure and hospitality, up by 77,000, all the way down to professional business services, and manufacturing, 25,000. that's a pretty good month guys, real quickly, i'm looking at the high frequency data, a little mixed there they're having trouble with the idea that you have the two holidays, easter and passover, in the middle of the survey month. one is showing weakness. one's showing strength both showing a bit of deceleration in the job market that we're going to have to

follow to see if there's any impact at all. >> steve, it's, i don't know i'm, i have a different question, which is later today do you want to tease us with what you're going to ask >> you know, andrew, i honestly don't know what the exact question is right now, because a lot depends on what powell wants to say we're sort of in a new regime here and i know you've been following the reporting that we've been doing which shows that we've ratcheting up for the outlook for rate hikes if you have that graphic, it's pretty darn dramatic, right? and i've never seen, between the two surveys we did in march, for example, and today, a change in the outlook for the fed over a six-week period the way we've seen it right here between meetings so i want to see what kind of, i don't know, bounds you put it,

that he puts on how tfar we're going to go. you might ask, is 75 out-of-bounds. i think those are some of the areas, but see what he says first and that is the way i would react, to see what's the missing piece in our outlook for the federal reserve. >> must watch tv must-watch tv. thank you. >> super size it, maybe. >> yeah, they extended it on thursday nights to keep people there. and once you've missed the top of another show you're not go being to switch to another network, you're stuck. >> we should do that at the top of the hour. >> hand it to the next show? >> that's an idea. coming up, details on a chinese

h hacking unit this news out short time ago and john sozimmer joins us. as we head to break, check out the shares of moderna, if you will, up 6.5%. above estimates. also reiterated its signed advance purchase agreement we spoke about what's ahead. >> we're going to look to boost reporting. we are rteeirating the $21 billion.

welcome back to "squawk box. we kind of got a little bit of a, like jargon, but a little risk on trade today. bitcoin is up quite a bit, above 39,000 >> that's weird. you've got the fed meeting, the decision being made today. we know a lot of what we're anticipating there, so maybe it's baked in at this point. we'll see. >> energy prices, we'll take a quick look at that there's news out regarding that. you can see up almost 4%

back to 106. do i sound smart >> when somebody else say it is, like this, then they sound smart. >> you sound like a trader and it's asymmetric. >> you know it sounds smart when you are making fun of it when you are saying it. that's smart-alecky. good morning >> good morning, becky the cyber security firm says it's uncovered a cyber security issue. the group's nickname, one of them, is winnti. they've targeted biotech and

pharma sectors among others. among the things stolen so far, are designs for clean energy components proprietary customer and personal data from a defense manufacturer and business units and network architecture the investigation began in 2021 with a large corporate customer in asia but soon learned that those in north america were also affected they also appear to be scooping up other information like employee e-mails and customer data for possible extortion or br black mail they called theis group one of the most prolific in existence and they've briefed the fbi and department of justice on their

findings >>. >> this is kind of terrifying when you hear about the scope and that it's been going on for three years at least >> the question is how much value has been extracted from the u.s. economy they think it's in the trillions of dollars, not in the billions of dollars, as a result of this group. that is an enormous number and gives you a sense of the scale of what the chinese are trying to achieve this seems to be targeted at cutting edge industrial manufacturing techniques so the chinese government appears to be trying to steal the highest of high-tech manufacturing processes to leap frog their economy forward and catch up to the united states as the dominant comply in the world. i think what a lot of people don't understand about this chinese espionage is the huge scale and thevast amount of money they are extracting from the american economy >> as we try to come up with

talks back and forth, and how do you do that when that's happening throughout back door >> right the traditional thing in espionage, there's a gentlemen's agreement that countries are going to spy, and that's okay, because it helps everybody get intelligence on where everybody else is, but this is different, because industrial espionage is aimed at eroding the u.s. leadership on planet earth, really what this is doing is stealing information that can be fuel for the chinese economy, and you're looking at an enormous operation on the chinese side. people don't fully understand, i think, the back end of this the way the chinese steal this information with their cyber spies and work through chinese government entities to funnel the information back minto chinese economies. there's a huge back end industry here >> thank you very much when we come back, we do have breaking trade data. then we'll get reaction to

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welcome back to "squawk

box. rick santelli here with exciting, live breaking news it was one of the key reasons why we had negative gdp announced last week for the first quarter. this is not going to help. minus 109.8 billion. that is the largest trade deficit going back to january 1992 recordkeeping, and by a wide, wide margin. the nearest, closest trade deficit to that was in january, when it was about 89.3 of the and last month now revazed to minus 89.but boy, minus 109.8 jumps ahead. our big demand for imports definitely hurts us on the gdp side, but it does give us a glimpse of demand in the u.s. being a bit brighter spot than

in other economies, and of course the inventory issue, we did a lot of inventory building, and we all know why. can't get parts, supply chain issues, manufacturing issues of the the fourth quarter saw a surge in that, but the surge abated in some extent. inventory is a key to this economy moving on eight cylinders, so this was a big factor we are expecting the amount of debt to be peaared down a bit. debt that we have is one reason, inflation may be another reason. but the other is tax receipts. when you actually have better tax policy, you can bring in boat loads more money. andrew, back to you. >> rick, thanks to you we should tell you uber is out with its first quarterly results. and a gap loss of $3.04 a share,

largely due to an accounting loss from uber's stake in didi guidance coming in above expectations and the company's driver base is at a post-pandemic high. they expect that to continue without what they call significant incremental incentive investments. that's a little different from what we heard from lyft. we'll be talking about that in just a moment, but we will be joined about their same time tomorrow on the program. meantime, uber was originally scheduled to report first quarter results after the bell but moved its release up after lyft reported its results last night. it gave light second quarter revenue guidance and said it would have to keep on spending for driver incentives. joining us, john zimmer.

i'm so grad lad you're here wit to help explain what's going on. they came away with a very negative impression about what the incentive costs would be speak to it if you could, and i'm curious what your sense of the reaction is. >> yeah, you know, we are focussed on the rebound, you know, q2 is an opportunity for us to kick start a big year of growth we're really happy with the numbers we've put out in q1, beating expectations on revenue, on adjusted ebita and the simple message is we're going to invest in q2. we understand the market reaction we don't love the market reaction but we're going to put up numbers into q2, 3 and 4 that show payoff in the long run for the stock. >> why do you think the market has reacted as negatively as it

has? >> it's a choppy market environment as a whole the market wants to understand the business model coming out of the pandemic and we've asked them to make investments that we think are the right thing to do for long-term profitability and to get supply and demand into balance. coming out of q1 where we saw the omicron spike. >> explain this if you could one of the things that happened, this morning, because uber was anxious that their results or stock would get pounded similarly like yours when they felt that they were not in the same place, how do you see the incentives and the cost of those incentives that you're going to be putting in place for drivers differ from what uber is saying, which is they're saying they're not going to have to increase spending >> i'm not going to comment on what they're saying or doing, we focus on youour execution.

etas year-over-year improved by 30%. we're in a good place. what we call service levels for those eta s are in lean with industry we are seeing on the horizon more growth. we just faced down a pandemic, bringing the cost structure in b better alignment with the state of the business. it feels right to us of the. >> can you put some numbers around what you think that incentive plan may have to look like and do you think by putting that plan in place that it's going to actually force uber to have to do something similar >> you know, the numbers that i can share, what we shared on the call, the adjusted ebita guidance of 10-20 and the revenue guidance up to a billion dollars, which, you know, would be the first time hitting that target or near that target, you know, since the pandemic

so, again, i can focus on what we're doing. we feel like it's a great long-term investment, and we care deeply about our shareholders, which is why we're making the investment. we care deeply about the reaction and are going to put up numbers in q3 and 4 as well as q2 to prove this is the right decision >> hey, john, i guess, looking at your numbers and looking at uber's, and i know you can't comment on theirs, but they basically say they're not having a hard time finding drivers. it sounds like you are having a harder time. are they paying more or is there some reason you feel like you have to pay up to get drivers? >> i wouldn't say we're having a hard time. we saw 70% driver activations increase year-over-year. so we're actually having great progress bringing new drivers and keeping drivers on the platform >> then why are you going to pay more >> we're going to invest in getting more drivers and keeping drivers, because

passengers are coming back, and they're looking to service levels and q2 is going to be in a critically important time to demonstrate that we're bringing supply back in line with demand. you know, we just came out of a pandemic, and the spikes in demand are less organic than in typical times, and what weave he a found through the pandemic is doing something like this pays off over a couple quarters, and that's what we're doing. >> we were trying to put this in context, and i understand you don't love the comparison between the two of you, but it is a due only. i'm trying to figure out if you're the dumbest competitor or brilliant in a way that you're going to steal these people back and they'll have to follow suit. >> we're confident in our strategy we've been in the market, logan and myself have been in this market for ten year.

we understand the balance of supply and demand, the return on investment, and we just faced off two years of a pandemic, improving the cost structure, making smart investments, and we're focussed on continuing to do that. we are confident in what we're doing and can't comment on how others see things. >> one of the things we were talking about is the platform itself and yes, this would be a comparison between the uber platform and the lyft platform but some of the steps you're taking and uber's taking to increasingly make it harder for drivers or, or at least incentivize drivers to stay on your platform rather than this constant switching back and forkts the more rides you do, the more opportunities you get do you see a time, we talked about their, you can pop back and forth and back and forth, and you said it was fine do you think in the future that's still going to be snien. >> >> we are still continuing to

invest in a driver rewards program? we are able to see which drivers are most productive on the platform and providing those drivers with the right reasons to stick with lyft we will continue to get better and better at identifying the top drovers that add the most value. and keeping they will on the platform, but part of the benefit of this work is the independent contractor nature and the ability to make that choice. >> what is the real impact of fuel cost on the business in terms of even interest by drivers to get on the platform or stay on the platform in this moment >> we have not seen a negative impact from gas prices as we said on the call, driver e earnings average about $24 per hour we did that to respond to the fact that gas prices are coming

up but haven't seen a negative impact in terms of driver earnings or prices of rides to returning passengers >> strategy longer term. what do you think of the taxi market i raise this because obviously, this is becoming a big issue in new york city. won't only just be black cars or camrys or whatnot, but tapping into these networks of taxis in other cities >> it's not a focus of ours. not that interesting obviously, as i said, we've been in this market for ten years we've seen this before. it creates a bad user experience often. it's difficult to make work, because taxis aren't equipped to take a street hill and there are different regulations around the pricing of those rides we saw 70% increase in driver activations, and so we're confident in this focus on the

ride sharing m in this case and don't have plans to add taxis to the platform >> we appreciate it. we hope to have you back so that we can see where things land next quarter by the way, what's one thing you think investors should be looking for next quarter i know you've obviously put out your guidance, but in terms of measuring this, and we'll see, the stock i should say, john, unfortunately, hasn't moved up while we've been speaking. it's sort of been hanging around the same place the whole time. and i'm just wondering whether you think that in fact it might have even gotten marginally worse, whether you think there's some kind of misunderstanding here >> i can't comment on whether there's a misunderstanding i believe it's an overreaction for one quarter of investment, but i understand and have talked to investors and will continue to talk to investors they want to see demonstration

of leverage in the model, and i'm very confident about demonstrating that in the second half of the year, and in the roi of making this investment in q2. this is what investor also continue to look for show me the leverage in the model. we will show that. and we look forward to doing so. >> john zimmer, we wish you lots of luck, and wela will be watching before going public, lyft was cnbc disrupter company, and the tenth annual list of private innovators will be revealed tuesday may 17th on air and online at cnbc.com/disrupters. still to come, the fed meeting. asque we head to a break, we ch

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the new york stock exchange, jim cramer joins us now. i saw one of your tweets that i thought was interesting. howard schultz is back

but when he was sort of talking about what he needed to do, it was kind of jarring that it had gotten to this point, i think, was, and that's why maybe the stock is down so much. >> yeah, i mean, there was a guy there, kevin johnson, he ran it for a while. and if you listen to the conference call, howard's going, howard's not going to agree with me on what i'm about to say. it made you feel that whatever happened in the last five years, don't worry, i'll save you from it i'll fix things, and that buyback wasn't that good, i'd rather give it to the people you kind of felt like the thing had gotten completely wayward. i look at it differently they had a big covid outburst in china, and kevin got hurt by that, but when i listened to cole, i fit bad for kevin. kevin johnson, he did a pretty good job, but after i read this, maybe i have to reassess how he did it, and i thought that was kind of brutal, frankly.

>> really? that's interesting a lot of times the new ceo, it's like, well, you throw off everything in the kitchen sink, kind of wipe the slate clean that's sort of a common thing to do, i guess. >> kevin johnson, a really good guy. look, these are very trying circumstances. i think he did a very good job but the litany of things that howard indicates they weren't doing either was an attempt to be able to say don't unionize, i'm going to fix it or that this company really lostity its way d i'm back the previous ceo, frankly, i thought did a good job and deserved better. >> i'm a big fan of kevin's, i did a good job of making it a

digital company. you used to walk into a starbucks and the baristas had a smile on their face. they'd write a nice little note on the cup there was a sense of joy, the whole situation. and that has sort of changed in part because of their success by the way, because they now have these lines out the door that have changed during the pandemic people aren't staying in the store. it's become a sort of factory in there, and that's what needs to change. >> that's a piece of it that i don't think, i think it's fair to say kevin didn't focus enough on and now, that's why quwe're seeg the union effort >> tips were down dramatically because of the way everything was digitized. the through put was so impossible there were so many people coming in these are thing kevin should have thought about there are a lot of people who work at starbucks, and they just didn't seem to communicate between the baristas and the

upper level, and i think that howard was very upset about that don't forget, they hired a person who was a known union organizer in buffalo hired her by mistake that was ill-fated. got to be a less and less pleasant place to work they were not ready for the cold drinks they didn't have the ice machines going there were a lot of things that were wrong we just didn't know about it until howard complained about it >> jim cramer, we're going to see you -- i know we've got to go uber/lyft, is this unfair? >> it's a veteran company. on this kevin johnson thing, he was not doing that bad a job the buyback was good at 55, 60 he was thrown under this bus >> jim, we'll see you in a

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we have a news alert for you this morning robin hood announcing the company will introduce stock lending. it expects to be available to all customers by the end of may. and, becky, i think this suggests -- remember we're just reading that statement in regard to warren buffett's comments over the weekend they were saying they did a lot of shorting. stock lending to me is suggestive of shorting or at least allowing others to short based on that lending, fashioning a sort of move insofar as that when you think about it, you know, they've talked about how shorting is somehow bad but now they're doing it i don't know we'll have to dig in more to better understand exactly what they're saying when you say you're in the lending business, i think that's what this is saying. >> it sounds like it by the way, you pointed out yesterday, andrew, the other part of that statement said they don't allow day-trading, which

that's kind of what we think of them doing joe was just saying maybe there are limits to how much you can trade any given day. >> there are limits to how frequently you can do it or how many stocks you can in a given day. but there is the prospect that you can -- i don't know. if you're trying to do it every ten minutes, yes, you can't do it like that that's true. >> right there's somebody we might be able to ask a little about this ahead of today's fed decision, a poll that asked contributor where is they see the most upside for the rest of this year 36% said the energy sector 29% said tech. 21% said health care 7% said discretionary, another 7% said materials. we asked what one stock they would want to tell their investors about right now, they picked unitedhealth, pal lopalan others joining us, sean, when you hear something like this, robinhood

saying they are going to allow stock lending, it sounds like shorting does it sound like anything else to you >> yeah, no, i think stock lending is a distinct business activity from going out there and actually shorting stocks maybe you think about it most of the major brokerages out through the offer some sort of stock lending program. it's actually for some of the traditional funds, it's an important part of their business is lending out some of the securities they hold so i don't know that i would compare this to the same thing in terms of -- for people who are shorting it's not just robinhood. it could be anywhere they can lend those securities and make a bit of return on the borrow rates of those securities. >> let's talk quickly about what you're anticipating, what retail investors are anticipating this has been a really well-telegraphed idea we'll see a 50 basis point from the fed

today. what do you think in terms of this announcement? >> i think the 50 basis points hike is more or less priced in it's been well telegraphed i think investors expecting that i think it will come down to any details we can get on the balance sheet runoff, what that's going to look like. i think more importantly, what is going to come in the june meeting. right now the market knows to price in some sort of adjustment to that fed funds rate at pretty much every meeting for rest of the year the question is are they going to frontload those hikes, try and spread them out. right now the market islooking for an end-of-the-year fed funds rate around 2.5% how we get there incrementally is the big question. i think any commentary in thes preor afterwards is going to be what drives any sort of meaningful action that will have staying power and followthrough many the sessions to come. >> what are investors doing right now on your platform

what are they buying or selling? >> the one thing we've seen so far, it's in the past month or two, especially with some of these commodity hikes, price spikes that we've had is where they're going is they're holding some of those energy names what they're doing as these energy names are a little more resilient to some of the sell-offs that would be higher they're taking profitings in those and finding some of these beat-up names, particularly in the tech sector, but i think it's worth pointing out they're looking at megacap names, the tech company where is they're profitable is where they're graf stating towards, particularly in the semiconductor space. we've seen some elevated demand for names like a&d in nvidia who have the high-speed computing market is really what they're targeting. that is really some of the names we're seeing and going to. but they're bag lot more selective in terms of wa they're going to do. they're not saying i'm going to

buy semiconductors they're particular about which names in the semiconductor space they're going after, not just in tech but other sectors as well >> amd's ceo will be on "squawk on the street" in the next hour. what do you hear about investor concerns >> so, i think right now investors are focused on, you know, what is going to be playing out here with inflation and how the fed is reacting to that, what the impact will be to the economy. we got that first negative gdp, but tlt a little different in that the consumer spending component that was still somewhat robust came in a little bit below what expectations were, but a lot was driven by that net export number was what dragged us into negative territory. if the fed can't get inflation under control with the a plan as it stands, are they going to have to escalate things more,

going to have to wti ithstand a pronounced recession that is an overhang on the market and i expect it to keep us in a range moving forward >> thank you great to see you uber shares have take an bit of a down. join us again tomorrow "squawk on the street" is next >> good wednesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber major indices aiming for a third day higher eu proposes the ban on russian oil and adp weakest in the year, the latest sign of slowing growth fed expectations, investors waiting a more hawkish fed, expected to hike rates by half a point for the first time in ma