raising the question, how much do you have to charge to actually make money? they seem to have been pushing to a point where it's already very expensive perhaps for all of those services. yet, the real question is about long-term profitability continues. that's going to do it for us on "squawk on the street. "techcheck' starts now good wednesday morning welcome to "techcheck. today amd trusts the processing, sales jump 70% airbnb says investor is here to stay, booking rebounds, stocks are higher all eyes on ride hailing companies. once again chasing growth with big incentives and will uber have to follow t. company pushed up earnings to get in front of all that derrick bosa says he doesn't

think so he says that's a lyft problem. >> our q1 results, we're on a strong path of emerging out of the pandemic our focus on profitable growth, product innovation and operational excellence over the last two years has set us apart from the pack. our mobility team is demonstrating phenomenal execution, demand and supply back to the competitors and rapidly innovation all while delivering record margins despite the mark crow turbulence that we all see. >> uber shares down by about 11% or so. it's going to take you back about a year and a half. d.u. raised this this morning, asking how durable the ride-sharing models. you listened to the calls last night which you tweeted were tough. >> the lyft was was really tough. uber was a little better there was caution at the end what may be a lyft problem now

is likely to be an uber problem in the future. if lyft is spending, is uber going to have to because drivers are able to switch so easily despite the rewards and loyalty programs between the two apps. i spoke to dara after the earnings call and i wanted a little clarification they're expected to -- we're going to get to the president. >> we'll take a listen >> 600 olympians waiting for me keep me too long and they'll rush the place all kidding aside, the biden administration released new information that we're on track to cut the federal deficit by another $1.5 trillion by the end of this fiscal year. the biggest decline in a single year ever in american history. the biggest decline, on top of a

$750 billion drop in the deficit last year, my first year as president. we also learned for the first time since 2016 the treasury department is planning to pay down the national debt issued to the public this quarter. for all the talk the republicans make about deficits, it didn't happen a single quarter under my predecessor, not once. the bottom line is the deficit went up every year under my predecessor before the pandemic and during the pandemic. it's gone down both years since i've been here, period they're the facts. why is it important? bringing down the deficit is one way to ease inflationary pressures in an economy where a consequence of a war and gas prices and oil and food, it's a different world right now because of ukraine and russia. we reduced federal borrowing and helped combat inflation. this process a good news, but it didn't happen by itself.

the previous administration increased the deficit every year it was in office, in part because of its reckless $2 trillion tax cut i know you're tired of hearing me say that, a $2 trillion tax cut that was not paid for, was not paid for a tax cut that largely benefited the biggest corporations, 55 of which earn $40 billion in profit and paid not a single penny in income tax in 2020 the wealthiest americans like the billionaires on average pay just 8% in federal taxes the previous administration not only ballooned the deficit, it undermined the watchdogs, inspector generals whose job it was to keep the pandemic relief funds from being wasted. remember at the time i kept say they're going to fire this inspector general. they fired the inspector general. in my administration the watchdogs are back the justice department has a chief prosecutor for pandemic

fraud who is going to go after the criminals who stole billions in relief money meant for small businesses and american families but never got to them, got in the pockets of criminals when i came to office, we took a different approach across the board. with the american rescue plan and other actions we started to grow the economy from the bottom up and the middle out. rescue checks and tax cuts for working families, gave them just a little breathing room and put food on the table and a roof over their heads remember the first year all those long lines of automobiles lined up and going through a parking lot just to get a box of food in their trunk? we got vaccination shots in arms that helped us go from 2 million americans unvaccinated to more than 220 million americans fully vaccinated we made it easy for millions of americans to sign up for coverage under the affordable care act, saving an average of $2,400 a year. as a result of these and other

economic recovery plans, we recovered faster than projected. a record 6.7 million jobs created last year, the most in the first year of any president in american history, and the fastest economic growth in any year in nearly four decades. and looking ahead, i have a plan to reduce the deficit even more which will help reduce inflationary pressures and lower everyone's cost for families look, it's a plan that let's medicare negotiate the price of drugs as they do with the department of veterans affairs we can cap the price of insulin at $35 instead of the hundreds of dollars, thousand a month in some places. my plan provides tax credits to utility companies to generate clean energy those companies are required to pass those savings on to families i met with about a dozen of those utility ceos in the white house. they confirmed this plan will lower energy bills for families

immediately. my plan includes tax credits for consumers to purchase electric or fuel-cell vehicles, new or used, which will save the typical driver about $80 a month not having to pay for gas at the pump the tax cut is for folks to buy solar panels and heat pumps, more efficient windows and doors for their homes, estimated savings, $500 per year on average. we can do these things by making sure no one earning less than $400,000 a year will pay a single penny more in federal taxes. all we're asking is that the wealthiest americans and largest corporations begin to pay their fair share, at least part of their fair share you heard me say before, i'm a capitalist, i believe you should be able to make as much money as you legally can, just pay your fair share there's no reason why a billionaire should be paying a lower tax rate than a teacher or a firefighter. that's sharp contrast to what today's

republican party is offering if they hadn't put this in print, you'd think i was making this up. senator rick scott of florida, united states senator who is reading the national campaign committee released what he calls the ultra maga agenda. it's a maga agenda again let me tell you about it it's extreme, as most maga things are it will actually raise taxes on 75 million american families, over 95% of whom make less than $100,000 a year. among the hardest hit, working families imagine you're a family of four and don't makeenough money to have federal taxes because you don't make enough money to pay them you pay all your taxes but just don't make enough. under this new plan, this tax plan the ulta maga agenda, while big corporations and billionaires will pay nothing

more, the working class folks are going to pay a hell of a lot more it goes further than that. this extreme republican agenda calls for congress -- i'm not making this up either, you've got to really think about this requires a vote, if it were to pass, every five years congress would have do vote to reinstate or eliminate social security, medicare and medicaid. social security, something seniors have paid in for their whole life and it has to be reauthorized every five years? again, it's hard to make this up, but then again, it's a mega agenda meanwhile, millionaires and billionaires and corporations skate by imagine that, just imagine that. i think it is truly outrageous i've offered a different plan, a plan rooted in american values

of fairness and decency. wealthy folks and corporations will pay a little more billionaires will have to pay a minimum tax. again, most importantly, no one making less than $400,000 will pay a penny more in federal taxes. we're going to protect the strength in social security and medicare, not put it on the block every five years let me remind you again, i reduced the federal deficit. all the talk about the deficit from my republican friends, i love it. i've reduced it $350 billion in my first year in office. we're on track to reduce it by the end of september by another $1 tril -- >> we'll continue to monitor the president. some remarks centered around rebuilding the economy post covid, vaccinations, the ways in which employment has returned, dee, but really centered around deficit reduction, arguing under

the prior white house deficit increased every year, that it's come down every year since he's been an office, targeting president trump in ways we've not yet heard from potus lately. >> this coming on the second day of the fomc meeting where we'll get a decision nasdaq down about 1.3% lyft nearly a third of its value down today the problem there is they couldn't really answer a direct question on the call last night. in a way, neither can uber, because they don't know in terms of how much they're going to spend in terms of drivers incentives, regulation, et cetera that's maybe one of the core problems of the entire ride-sharing industry. there's still so many unknowns. >> a big part of it. look at uber and lyft, their business more of a mud wrestling match than a sprint that was promised pre ipo remember the talk about driverless cars and changing transportation the world over

and the one mega app that got you everywhere that's not what's happening here they're not breaking away and changing the world then at the same time, you've got airbnb that doesn't have to pay property owners to list their property, right? the incentives are a bit morale lined for them, and things are lining up for more efficient use of that capital under airbnb's platform they're arguably the most successful direct-to-consumer name even though they're not selling a product, it's a service. not having to pay so much for marketing, they're the first stop and people are coming back again and again. >> and profits, john that's key more profitable. >> eventually investors like those, yes despite lyft's insistence that big investments are going to pay off, clearly the market has turned today and in the last six months as growth stories coming out of tech neat a little more meat on the bone joining us now, somebody who has made headlines over the last few

days on this very topic, invested in a lot of this innovated, benchmark capital's bill gurley. good morning. >> thanks, john. >> good to see you let's start broadly with what's happening in this market and people's expectations of what should be happening with valuations going up and what eventually happens in the real world. how do you read the market today in the context of what's happening to uber, lyft and then on the other side airbnb >> there's a lot in that question i'll start with where i think we are from a venture cycle perspective. people talk all the time about how venture is cyclical. what i don't think they realize is the pattern really resembles more of a soft tooth than a sign wave we tend to risk going slowly over a long period of time it's hard to know when that's going to come off. when it does come off, it tends to come off in a singular moment or what feels like a singular

moment so many people will highlight that i myself was worried about valuations five or six years ago. you can say, wow, it was way too early. certainly didn't change what we were doing from a venture perspective, but when it does come off like it has in the past few days, and this is the reason i put that tweet out, people need to adjust their expectations really fast, especially in the private companies. there's this remarkable false security that cops from the fact that you don't have your price trading every day, where you may think your company is still worth what it was last time you raised money if your peer group of public companies are all down 60 to 70%, guess what? you are, too, you just don't know it. it's super important to know where you are. it's super important to know if that dollar of capital you raised yesterday cost like a third the price of the dollar you'll need to raise in the future, because then you might want to be a lot more

conservative about how you operate. >> let's translate that, even for public marketing investors what do you say to a stitch fix, an investment of yours, which has had a rough go in the public market right now and is trying to, i imagine, retool and realign its model for what consumers want right now to what degree do they need to take a signal from what the public markets are saying to what degree is it really about getting that fit >> one thing that i do it translates into the public market, and you guys have been talking about this on air. when you have a frothy world and everything trades on price-to-revenue multiples, people talk about all kind of numbers and don't talk about the bottom line. you have a kind of this adjusted that, and people want real earnings they want real free cash flow now.

all these companies that have lived in this high-froth environment for the past decade, they kind of have to adjust. i think the sooner they do it the better it's not easy when everyone in your organization is operating in a singular fashion for ten years. i give a lot of credit to brian chesky and the quarter they put together at airbnb super impressive. >> what's interesting about them is they did take the valuation hit in the private markets before they went public. when it comes to uber, a lot of that profit isactually in the private markets. it has been lagging. spoke to dara this morning who said they will eventually get to net income profitability we don't really know when. even if it gets there, what's the company worth? obviously you invested in it when it was promised to be this disrupter when it was talking about autonomous platform. now it seems like a plat form with an expensive labor problem. what's it worth?

>> i don't think that's what came out in the past 24 hours. one of the reasons i've been such a big marketplace investor is these networks are susceptible to network effects where you get a winner-take-most where you have the scale provider having an advantage one of the negatives of the environment we've been in that i think we're no longer in is that you can spend billions and billions of dollars on this mass subsidize asean. that prevents what plays out in markets. i looked at what uber and dara put up the mobility unit at uber is growing way faster than at this point in time. lyft talked about needing to subsidize supply dara didn't have a problem at all. i think what we may be seeing is a settling down, overt capital being pulled out of the system talking about the wave going out

and you get to see what people really look like i think we're starting to see what the business really looks like i'm open. >> that may be true. the wave hasn't gone all the way out yet. i wonder, if uber's biggest strength is its network effect, now that it's not doing autonomous driving anymore, tesla is working on robo taxis does that get disrupted or taken away >> i've been pretty outspoken on this i think we're 20, 30 years away from full self-driving personally i actually think it's a problem that could be solved quite well with an open source approach like what is being done in china. i've never considered that a big risk for the company going back to the network effect thing, think about it from a driver perspective if you feel one of the players is accelerating away from the other, are you going to spend more of your time investing in that platform? as dara said, you also have the

opportunity to do delivery and driving. so you have more opportunity, more density all those things matter for a driver >> what if lyft is all of a sudden paying you more >> but it's incremental subs sidization they know it's temporal. take a look at the lyft quarter, negative 150 million in free cash flow. almost 200 million in a quarter, and they say it's going up this isn't going to go on forever. they have 2 billion in cash they can't spend a billion a year in negative free cash flow. that's my point. all that stupidity may be coming to an end in terms of growth subs dizization. >> how would you advise companies to shift from growth to liquidity

car vannah is used as a cautious example, a company who didn't raise money until they really needed it in the words of morgan stanley, obviously in a much more challenging high-yield environment. >> any time you're choosing to execute in a model that's super in aggressive where you're doing that in the public market, you're more susceptible to risk when the winds change as they have here. the only way that you can start to get out of that is to either move towards free cash flow positivity or to provide some type of confidence to the street based on unit economics contribution margin that you're going to get there everyone knows this, right when we go from these positive markets to these glass-half-empty markets, every assumption is skeptical and puts the onus back on the company to prove that they're right it's a tough position when you've heavily invested like

that and the winds change. >> bill, what do you see happening on the vc side i'm starting to hear more that investors are being chooseyer and we're entering a phase that those strong up to this point and well capitalized, my end up kbg better capitalized and buying out some of the smaller companies at lower valuations than the smaller companies had hoped they would have. are you hearing any of that? i know you guys invest at way the earlier stage, but you hear a lot. >> i haven't seen that yet what i talked about earlier about hoe slow people are to come around from a perception standpoint, unless they're running out of money and doing maybe an auction sale, and we may see some of those, they don't. if you spent the past three or four years thinking, a smaller company thinking you're worth $500 million and that market

clearing price on m&a and you have 150, no one is eager to go run that sales experiment. it takes a while for everyone to get their expectations around the fact that we're in a new world order. a great phrase, i've only know this because i've lived through it twice i've seen how long it takes. that may end up happening but hasn't happened yet. a bigger question people have is whether the broader limited partnership market will keep funding what's been going on in the late stage market which has been really the price setter for all these companies. i think that's still a big question mark. >> what role do ipos, how many come to market and what their performance is, or direct listings f you prefer, what role do those play in how all that plays out and how quickly.

>> i think it takes a while there, too, for the same exact reason which is all these private marks were made and they sit in the head of the founder and the executive team and they know their percentage ownership and they think about their own net worth. unfortunately people mark to market in their head when the world shifts like this, when a sass company -- high-growth sass company used to be 30 times revenue and now it's eight, there's a lot of reframing, a lot of adjustment that has to go on in people's minds. unfortunately i think the ethipo and direct listing market get delayed. >> in your tweet, which was a remarkable series of tweets. you talk about the generation of investors who have been hypnotized by the latter half of this bull run, i just wonder, don't you think there are some

of them who have at least heard about the financial crisis why has that history been so erased from their experience do you think? >> part of it is simply that they don't have the exposure founders of these companies are often quite young. they might be in their 20s or even teens occasionally. so they just -- their only perspective on the valuations and the market is what they've seen in their life it's not like intentional naivete, it's just that that's the frame of reference they have and haven't read a buffet bt bok and if they did, they wouldn't believe it because it's so far off from what they've seen just like the old reality we had to play, now we have to play this reality >> all right, bill good judgment comes from experience which comes from bad judgment bill gurley, thank you >> thanks, john.

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welcome fwook "techcheck." i'm carl can't nilla julie will have more on why match is falling in a moment, plus a look at airbnb. let's get an update with frank holland. >> around 2 1/2 hours from now the federal reserve will announce its decision on interest rates a half point hike is widely expected along with a move to start reducing the central bank's $9 trillion asset portfolio. wall street looking for any hints about how aggressive it will be with future hikes.

intuit will pay more than $141 million to customers it's part of a settlement with all 50 state that requires intuit to spinsd its free-free-free ad campaign the company says it changed most of its practices and expects a minimal impact ford's april sales fell more than 10% that's an improvement from the declines of 20% in february and march. the company, along with every other automaker, has been struggling with a semiconductor shortage lisa sue joined us on "squawk on the street" with a look at how the acquisition of xilinx factored in to the quarter. >> xilinx grew 2% in the first

quarter. we see them growing low twebts which is a great growth rate if you add that on top of amd, we'll grow 60% year over year into 2022. >> joining us for more on amd, senior semi analyst matt ramsey. good to have you interesting point about xilinx, prior revenue was 31 and has essentially doubled it is it that good of a fit >> i think it is we've been a big proponent of the amd/xilinx merger for a long time it brings amd into industrials, aerospace and defense, non-consumer markets as lisa mentioned in the spot you just did, because of some substrate supply investments that amd has made, they can open up new supply for xilinx to grow into the demand they have and

asp should be good given the supply-demand gap out there. it's a great fit and we'll be looking for them to talk about integrating the two roadmaps together >> a series of lower highs and lower lows since 160 last thanksgiving now we get more chatter about a cautious view on pcs, across the industry on gaming how big of a threat is it? >> i think from my perspective it was kind of the needle that they needed to thread last night on the call. you've got big upside from the server business, the most important business at amd and a conservative view on pcs which i think the market was pricing anyway lisa talked on the call last night about high single digit assumptions in their model for the pc tam but the fact that due to share gains and enterprise notebook and shift from chrome toward enterprise and the overall market mix, they're going to grow their pc revenue.

that will be a nice complement to a server business that's going to probably more than double so it is a risk. i think investors have very much calculated that risk, especially with some of the demand and disruption in eastern europe because of the war and zero covid shutdowns in china that affected supply in the short term admitting to the risk and taking a conservative view is about as good as they could do for amd and i think they'll still grow the business this year. >> we're often talking about companies richly valued versus those that have high quality revenue and earnings arguably amd still falls into both camps i think the pe -- trading around 21 times 2022 earnings and 18 times 2023 is that okay in this market? can you buy it at these levels that are so much lower than where it was before, so you might think of it as a discount, by historical measures, that's a

rich valuation. >> it's a great question, john i think you can. sub 20 times pe on five dollar earnings next year give or take is great value for amd if you think about where their most important growth is, in the service business, that's mother t more than doubling you mentioned strong profitability in the numbers for amd. we're looking at a service business that will double in revenue and have operating margins expand by 15 points. you're adding sooir links who has extraordinarily healthy margins and much more broad exposure then you have the opportunity going forward for them to still enter new parts of the tam they're underrepresented in enterprise in pc and server, they haven't gotten into the server market which xilinx can bring them into. there's a lot of growth left here that the valuation i don't think represents as much as the stock has pulled back.

>> matt, appreciate it always a fascinating -- a lot in there that speaks to the broader industry, too. >> thanks, carl. up next. stay with us here, we're talking airbnb don't miss expedia ceo peret kern tomorrow at 11:00 a.m. eastern. don't go away.

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let's get you another market place mover. airbnb, the stock is in the green this morning after reporting a solid quarter with revenue growth of 70%, bookings topping $100 million for the very first time, outperforming the broader markets. here to discuss, greg greeley, the former president of airbnb he also spent two decades at amazon greg, great to see you. >> likewise. >> you left airbnb shortly before the ipo it was a very different company. some people questioned its financial discipline during the pandemic, it made a lot of cuts to the workforce, the marketing budget, scaled back on hotel ambitions. are you surprised by the pivot you've seen brian chesky make while leading this company >> no, actually not at all brian has been very focused and

very clear on what the vision was, and this has been going on for years, about how airbnb can really be a great extension platform with that pivot, though, what brian recognized and has highlighted multiple times is that travel has fundamentally changed. airbnb is in a great position to kind of play out on those opportunities as people are living and working remotely and doing so on airbnb >> greg, i wonder why did you leave just ahead of the ipo, especially when the company has been able to even grow from that point in its valuation, has grown so much also in the public market >> i'm really proud of what airbnb has done. i left for personal reasons unrelated to the vision. it was very clear that airbnb was going to be successful, and i've been very supportive and very happy with that >> greg, i wonder what you think the model would look like today had it not been for covid and this massive acceleration of the

ability to work from anywhere. the tools were already in place, but getting that through people's heads almost required -- this quickly almost required something like what we went through what would the company have looked like without it >> it's probably difficult to speculate on that. i think what is important to see is that, what you're seeing is the pent-up demand for travel right now. we've had this two-year period where people were afraid to travel and the airbnb team had been doing great work in preparing for that i see it when you look at the expedia results, talked to the ceo of get your guide. and everyone seeing the results of this pent-up demand for travel airbnb in particular has the unique category of being able to live on airbnb. >> greg, i wonder what you think about the impact of inflation and higher mortgage rates on airbnb's business. we look at it from the perper speculative of uber and lyft,

any impact on raising prices certainly when it comes to gas, tight labor market, having to do with driver supply seems to have a very different impact on airbnb and demand for its inventory. what do you see? >> when you look across all the marke marketplaces, the consumer marketplaces, you're seeing a very different impact. certainly with amazon and ebay, there was a real bump from the stimulus checks last year that are driving some tough comps now. there's this pent-up demand for travel that's helping airbnb, expedia, booking.com and others. what's very clear that we may have pulled forward some of the consumer purchases from 2022 into 2021, but people have saved up for travel. there's going to continue to be -- the thing that the marketplace does, as people are tightening their budget if they need to, they're finding a broad

selection on the marketplaces for -- if they need to trade down on their travel selection when it comes to higher prices and mortgages, i think it's good to remember that services like uber and lyft, airbnb were all born out of a very tough and difficult recession. i do expect you'll see, as people are grappling with some of these inflationary pressures, that will be an incentivized supply on lyft, uber and airbnb as well. >> greg, of the marketplaces that you just mentioned, uber, airbnb, i would throw in lyft and doordash, there seems to be investors valuing airbnb and doordash so much higher. what do you think is going on at the ride-sharing companies and why haven't they been able to catch investor attention >> certainly you've got a

different dynamic going on when people were afraid -- during the pandemic, afraid of contracting covid, you definitely saw pressure on the rider's side and the driver's side as you look at ride sharing platforms, they're definitely getting back to prepandemic levels, even above prepandemic levels lyft is just below from the standpoint of thenumber of drivers. i think as people get more comfortable in those environments, you'll see continued growth there as i mentioned, there's certainly a tailwind for the covid and pandemic-related services in the delivery i think people will find they like that convenience. i think you'll still see growth in there the next 12 months, as people work through some of the economic realities here as travel opens up and as businesses open up, i think you'll see a little different reaction or customer behavior on each of those platforms.

>> greg, thanks so much for being with us today. talk to you again soon we hope greg greeley. >> my pleasure, thank you. after the break, roku looks to invest more in content. first let's get a check on crypto "techcheck" is back in just a moment

we've got a leadership change and poor guidance over at match today, and shares are down julia has more >> carl, shares were down as much as 8% yesterday after reporting results. the stock is now down about 3%, this despite match beating on the top and bottom line. here is what is weighing on match shares the company forecast weaker-than-expected revenue and guided to full year revenue growth at the bottom end of the range. it also announced ceo is stepping down. stressing it was simply for personal reasons another area of concern, the company estimates a $10 million

impact to revenue per quarter from the russia-ukraine conflict google is moving toward mandating apps use its app store billing service which match says could result in $6 million a month in costs on the upside, the company also saying they believe new e-regulation could force google to change that policy so that's costs could end up being short-lived. with match approaching 100 million monthly active users, analysts are saying those are mostly tinder users and that app continues to see solid user growth web bush saying tinder is exploring other features that are more social than they are about dating other analysts are pointing to potential and a female-focused bumble rival launching from tinder in the second half of the year. >> this makes me a little worried, julia, when companies with a very focused mission, about dating, they start having

a lot of mission creep bumble has had some of this. now match. do you want to meet work friends on match i don't know it seems like crossing the stream, like facebook dating you don't want that either plus when you've got tinder direct revenue up 18% year over year, the other brands up 22%, i wonder about the health of one of their more popular properties >> tinder is really the heart of that business right now. i think you make an interesting point about mission creep. if you look at some of these features that tinder and some of the other apps have been investing in, the tinder feature makes it feel more like a tiktok competitor it makes me wonder if there's this tiktokification, everyone pursuing the short attention span, the new generation of people with incredibly short attention spans who need to be engaged somehow. are they including these features to make the app more

appealing, or is it really just about mission creep, as you said, jon? >> the tiktokification of everything i like that. the dow turning negative after the break we'll talk more about today's fed decision means for tech the s&p 500 technology sector still positive over the last 12 months we're back in just a moment. cal: our confident forever plan is possible with a cfp® professional. a cfp® professional can help you build a complete financial plan. visit letsmakeaplan.org to find your cfp® professional. ♪♪ do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had

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time for a gut check on roku investors have been seeing stars, management might be too the partner withes pe firm apollo global in a miept stake in network starz that comes after lions gate was weighing spinning off on selling it entirely. wouldn't be the first time they worked together, agreeing last month on a deal to air films after first viewing on starz. shares down shy of 3%, carl. the fed announcement in two hours, it has been the prospect of higher inflation and higher rates that turned tech lower and sparked what's now become incredibly six months of selling. mike santoli looking at that trend ahead of the announcement.

>> carl, it pulled the leash tight on the overall market, stuff that ran farthest, d disinflation, have been well assigned november, december when the fed pivoted hard, started to raise market expectations where rates could go the price of long term treasury yields, as that goes down, yields go up you see it against the nasdaq 100. very much in synch bonds don't normally move this dramatically one of the biggest bond crashes in decades actually. if you look at it over a longer term stand, over two years, yes, there's a vague relationship between higher bond prices and higher tech share prices, but it is not quite as stark. here you see the nasdaq 100 rising here as treasury prices go down. in other words, it was not always matched up perfectly. a lot else going on, growth expectations, people crowding

into faang names, and right now you see 20% decline in the nasdaq 100, a lot more matters than just where rates are because you have gone long periods when the nasdaq is doing its own thing relative to what treasury is up to. >> are you a fan of pattern recognition some are drawing that the s&p rallies, last two fed meetings. >> yeah. >> and ensuing couple weeks, about 6% >> very conscious of it, especially mid march when we got confirmation of expected rate hike and the market had been very weak going into it. it is a similar setup. sentiment is very slanted to the negative side. however, does the market give you the same play three meetings in a row, that's the other nagging question i think the setup is there to have a little relief after the meeting. >> jon, over to you. >> now, folks, if you missed our interview with benchmark bill

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one more thing your daily twitter takeover. the journal reporting elon musk has been discussing ipo for twitter in as little as three years, if his bid goes through the news comes amid reports that musk is asking private equity firms and wealthy individuals to contribute more financing. we're getting reports about the exit plan. guys, we didn't have time with bill gurly, but he is an early twitter investor he expressed enthusiasm about the takeover wonder if he has been hit up. >> this is ridiculous, from a guy, elon musk, saying not three weeks ago that buying twitter is not a way to make money. now before it is fixed, carl, he is talking about ipo in three years. >> yeah. there's a lot of reporting he did tweet about potentially

charging commercial and government users as he makes it free for i guess you call it retail users one thing we didn't mention was the tweet about nfts and changing his avatar and saying that seems fungible. >> seems kind of fungible. i mean, it's just been a gift to us business reporters watching musk tweet and his reaction to all of this. who really knows how it shapes up it is fun to speculate, jon. we have seen him miss targets. maybe it will be three years, maybe it will be never you never know >> keep that never on your bear side of the thesis also the free mason joke somewhat funny check a couple of stocks we talked about airbnb, amd, strong earnings to the up side but well off highs of the session, still in the green, carl, so far. >> indeed, guys.

by the way, tonight, the parade rolls on ebay, twilio, oil came off from inter day highs. got slightly better than expected inventory numbers and the vix is still below 29 with two hours to go until we get the fed and another 30 minutes after that for the presser let's get to the judge and the half all right, carl, thanks so much welcome to the half time show. i am scott wapner, front and center the market moment of truth historic fed decision is two hours away, your money hanging on every word jay powell says. the investment committee on what stocks need to stage a rally let's show you the markets 12 noon in the east. red across the board as we build up to the big moment at 2:00 the dow down by 15, trying to figure out where it wants to go. it is wait and see mode. nasdaq selling off a bit, 297 is the yield on ten year. liz young, big