had a nice run into the close. >> they've been underperforming, obviously. they hold the most juice when it comes to what the index adds a whole is going to do also, you probably want to see cyclicals do better again. you don't want to see the defensive sectors lead the way >> yes going see thank you for your last word mike santoli, that does it for us in overtime i will see you tomorrow. i'll send it to "fast money," which starts now right now on "fast," so long 75 the fed chairman saying bigger rate hikes than the one we got today are not on the table for now. stocks roaring higher on those words. the dow climbing over 900 points, rallying for the third straight day is this is new power put for the markets? it's not just stocks rising, bitcoin getting a big-time bounce could this be the start of a new move higher for crypto not everything is sunshine and rainbows and unicorns. the fed warning inflation is too darn high. one says this chart of diesel is a sign prices might stay

stubbornly higher for some time. welcome to "fast money" in the heart of times square. i'm melissa lee. brian kelly and dan nathan, karen care we start off with the answer to what the one question the markets wanted to hear could ceci a 75-basis point hike in our future? >> 75 basis point increase is not something the committee is actively considering >> from the moment those words left the chairman's mouth, the major averages were off to the races, rallying nearly 3% across the board. s&p 500 posting the best day since may 2020 now i'm going to ask to pause here, because before we get to the men who asked the chairman to speak those market-moving words, i'm going come right here to our desk first and ask you guys this question based on what he said, do you think 75 basis points is off the table? raise your hands no one >> yeah. >> it's still on the table

okay >> let's get to senior economics reporter steve liesman interesting how the markets respond and how the traders actually process his words, steve. >> yes it's interesting the fed and the fed chair powell delivered what they were expecting to deliver, 50 base point rate hike today. a plan to slash the balance sheet. but powell threw the market a bone and the market went scurrying. take a look at the big change. you want to look at the equity market i'm looking at fed projects here before this meeting, there was a 51% probability according to of a 75 basis point rate hike at one of the meetings may was existent back then, june and july after towle powell, it is now down to 7% i don't know if you have 0.7% of a person there who can vouch for that, melissa. but here is the whole spectrum of where the fed futures market is priced now. down 10, 15 basis points on

each so still very aggressive here for sure, but not necessarily as aggressive as it had been. look, you have to remember this, melissa. powell instead of saying hey, we're not going to 75, he replaced that with we're doing 250. that's a pretty deal for the next several meetings. the fed is going to neutral. it considers neutral 2.25, 2.5 purse. i don't think anything is going to stop it what he did say, are you at 330, 340, 350, he said we're going to look around neutral, probably go somewhat above it. he is not playing the game i want to quote my friend, a smart forecaster never forecasts around two turns he told you what the forecast was for the first turn he's not playing the game with the second turn. >> neutral, steve. do we have an idea, a good idea of what they mean by neutral >> it's a good question, and had i not needed to ask that one question, it was the second question on my list which is mr.

chairman, sir, where is neutral and what do you think about neutral now? i didn't get a chance to ask that i was trying to get a feel, as you remember from my follow-up tell me why it's going to be 25, 50, or 75 one meeting or another. and actually, we have a reason the jobs number coming up. so if the jobs number comes in with a higher unemployment rate or a lower unemployment rate, do i then think it's a 50 or possible to go to 25 he took 75 off the table and he said 50 is just fine i think, you know, i'll throw this out to my friends there on the panel. we've had a kind of decline in this notion of the fed put but i think we learn today there is not necessarily a fed call-out there powell doesn't seem to have any interest in driving the market lower if he doesn't have to. so he threw the market i think an important bone. i didn't realize how much the market needed that 75 to get off the table to find its feet but i don't think powell said, you know, he doesn't need to

drive the market down necessarily. but he is certainly not going to be in there supporting it if it falls again. >> unless of course you think all the action today, or most of the action was driven by algos, because most participants, or many participants still believe that it could be on the table at some later date. dan, that was your take we were talking about. >> are there still actual participants isn't it algos any way >> nobody is trading. >> steve, we're still here they can't get rid of it here is the deal there was lot of talk about the stock market, and you just said throwing the market a bone. when you think about how the market sold off from that second day of the year, from an all-time high, the s&p 500 sold down 15% in front of the first 25 basis point hike that we got there. so they sold the rumor, they bought the news. we had that big rip. i think all of us were like if they had said 75 might be on the table, i don't know what the market would have done actually, the market might have rallied too. maybe hitting it hard like out of the gate might have been good

too. i don't know >> yes it's so interesting to say if you told me what it was going to say before this and said make money on this, right, the only way to make money is to sell the information. it wouldn't surprise me if another take on this whole thing would have been wow, they're behind the 8 ball here why would they take that off the table? what does that get him i don't see it as it is off the table. hidden in that is data dependent, right you get a couple of hot numbers, and i think 75 should be back on the table. >> which by the way is not a fetch from what he has said and what he continues to say and yet the markets really took that bone, steve, and ran with it so what was your take here >> why paint yourself into a corner. >> yes. >> you need to maintain maximum flexibility right now. we've all said we're behind the curve on here. we might need to accelerate this thing. i don't understand why you would indicate in the slightest fashion that no bets are off the table. for myong it was off the table he said it's not in the

immediacy of what we're planning to do. if that is not a walk-around to answering a question, i don't know what it is. i can understand that you don't want to spook the markets, but i don't think the difference of 25 basis points is the difference between us being flat or us being up 2 1/2, 3% it didn't make sense to me. >> everything we're talking about is the risk of this rally. what we've seen is you get days you're up 3%, you come in tomorrow, and you're down 3% so the risk here is tomorrow the market wakes up and says hey, wait a second, the fed is still behind the curve and they're not even going to catch up they really needed that 75 basis points i think i don't have to wait and see how this works today's rally made sense in one way. there was a 51% chance of a 75-bit hike in june. if you were short and you were valuing stocks on that, then you had to cover because now that probability came down. so that's new information. i don't necessarily think that's sustainable, but we'll find out over the next couple of days >> nor is that information then

to be long or go longer than it's to cover your short, not necessarily information to be long steve, i'm -- did he answer directly, and forgive me if he did and i missed it because i was sort of in transit did he answer directly how far he is willing to go, you know, in terms of sticking by that 50 if he sees, you know, financial conditions really tightening and maybethe economy going towards recession in any way >> he did and he didn't. and i do want to respond to bonawyn which is this notion why take it off the table. i think it's fair to recall that the fed is asking the market to digest an awful lot here something it's never happened before we haven't done a 50 in 22 years. we've never done $95 billion of balance sheet reduction over a period of time here. i think what powell is saying to you -- and by the way, he's also pulled forward a whole lot of rate increases here into the

future i don't think he needs 75 to do it right now because of how much the market has already priced in so in answer to melissa's question, he told you he is going to neutral, probably a little bit of above neutral. he is not forecasting how much above. remember he said look, it may be that inflation is peaked and we don't know it yet. he is reserving the flexibility to go either way he may have to go where at the worst possible outcome here, but he is just not forecasting it, because frankly, he doesn't know >> steve, it's karen let me ask you something melissa touched on, which is what is neutral. is this the new neutral? i sort of thought 2 1/2ish was the old neutral with a different inflationary environment than the one we're in now i was wondering it is 3? what is it >> you know, the fed is forecast between 2 1/4 and 2 1/2. there is some notion on a short-term basis neutral may be higher. and then the real question you want to ask, because it's a

little bit more answerable than your other question is why i'm going there is what rate is needed to really slow the economy down it is some place above that. it may be 3, it may be 3.5%. certainly when you look at that chart i put up earlier of where the market is headed, it's headed to 330. that's what it thinks is where the fed needs to go right now in terms of bringing down the inflation rate. >> steve, it's always great to see you. thank you. >> pleasure. >> and what an amazing question, steve, really. you sent the global markets rallying there this is all, of course, in the hope of killing inflation, right? check out, though, this chart of diesel fuel, hitting another record high, up 75% compared to a year ago bk here says this is one of the reasons the fed is going to struggle to get inflation under control. what is diesel telling you >> yeah, well, listen, we're seeing diesel prices almost double this year and you're seeing diesel splice which we got today at 10:30 below the five-year average, significantly below.

i think almost 20% below so what's happening here is refiners are out there and saying hey, we got to make some more diesel so we can keep these trucks rolling but they're pulling that oil that they otherwise would have put into gasoline for the summer driving season so you have these two kind of things going on where prices are going to stay higher in all energy classes, and there is nothing that the fed can do about that that's a supply side issue so you may want to raise rates you could raise rates to 5%, and it may not impact this at all. so in my view, this is why i think the fed is probably going to raise a lot more than what people think, and inflation is going to be a heck of a lot stickier than anybody thinks, or at least that the market is pricing in. >> right the fed can only address demand side of the equation, not the supply side. and in fact a lot of the inflation that we're seeing right now is supply side inflation. so that is the pickle that the fed is in. >> right so steve just said it. the last time the fed raised 50 basis points was may of 2000, and they did not know at the time that they were basically

going to hike into a recession they thought the economy was pretty good. they were trying to tamp down an asset bubble at the time and when you think about that, fed funds was at 6.5% in 2000, and it went down to 1.5 at the lows in that dot com crash period and then in '07, we were at 5.25 they brought to it zero during the financial crisis here we are, we got back to 2.5% in 2019. we have a black swan event it brings it to zero, fine they screwed up. we all agree that. they just kept on going and we have this asset bubble plus inflation, and now they might have a weakening economy and so to me, if you think that the s&p 500 down 15% in what we just saw this year encapsulates everything that we just talked about, you think that's it no way it's just not going to happen. to me, the last two times we saw this, got cut in behalf that 50%. in both instances, tell me where i'm wrong. it won't do birdie i don't know >> steve makes some good points.

taking or at least framing 75 in a way that is a bit more conciliatory to the market you got to keep in mind, i think people have a hard time shifting out of this qe situation we've been in for the better part of two decades. now we're raising rates. we've come out of this accommodative situation with covid, et cetera he makes a point why send additional shockwaves to the market. all i'm saying is given where we are here and now given that most tools are not going to address the issues that we're seeing, somewhat wages, but the supply situation that's really leading to a lot of inflationary pressure, the commodity pressure that's leading to a lot of commodity pressure, why -- why send additional shock waives i'm willing to kind of think on that my line of reasoning is given that we need to attack this, and we're behind the eight ball, why would you put anything out there that refrainious from doing everything necessary or possible to attack this and nip this is in the butt. >> don't take anything off the table, basically. >> maybe he doesn't think he

did. >> i don't think he did. i don't think anybody at this table thought he did today actually. >> right >> it's just the market reacted as if he did i don't feel that he did. >> that's a really good point. remember, what the fed has been doing is they have done a tremendous job with the communication channel. so let's watch over the next couple of days when these fed governors come out and start saying hey, wait a second, maybe 75 bips is back on then we'll see if this rally has legs if it doesn't hold then, then i'm with dan. >> we saw everything across the board rally, right broad-based rally, everything up 3% and more. commodities also rallied across the board. if you believe the fed and if you believe that the fed can engineer some soft landing and tame inflation, should commodities also rally, bk >> should commodities rally? >> yeah, absolutely. you have two things going on today. you had a weaker dollar, right but the commodity story isn't necessarily a demand story it's the supply story. >> so the fed can't control. >> the fed can't control it.

also, remember, china is closed right now. so all that commodity demand is not even out there in commodity prices are at this level i think we've got an issue coming into the summer all right, coming up, we've got some earnings coming your way. shares of bookings holding, tripadvisor and etsy on the move we'll bring you the numbers yet. more, what is next for the markets as the central bank battles inflation? the details ahead. do not go anywhere "fast money" is back in two. i'm only 21 but i've never been afraid of hard work. i waited tables to help my family make ends meet. i dreamed of going to college and the kpmg future leaders program helped me get there. with a scholarship, mentorship and support, i graduated with degrees in biology and philosophy.

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and present, can continue to get the tools they need to build a future of unlimited possibilities. welcome back to "fast money. we've got an earnings alert on etsy, the online retailer meeting estimates but the stock sinking on disappointing guidance the conference call got under way at 5:00 p.m. christina is here with the very latest >> melissa, with consumer spending pinched by inflation, retailers like etsy are starting to take note etsy's cfo saying consumering have less disposable income and many places to spend it. the market is reacting to the weak guidance for q2, despite higher seller fees, and we also have disappointing levels of active sellers and buyers, both

metrics came in lower than estimated. and keep in mind about half of etsy's active buyers still only make one purchase a year and etsy also said, quote, they are nowhere near saturation as the majority of their active buyers are still in the united states there was an interesting tidbit on this conference call that's going on right now etsy claims 10% of adult men in the united states and uk shopped on etsy at least once in the past 12 months i'm not sure about our panel, though >> we'll ask, christina. thank you. now bk, i know you have gone on there to buy a crocheted apron a couple of times in the past. >> that's right. >> but it's interesting to hear the guidance and how it's framed, in a world in which there are many more choices. christina mentioned having less disposable income, which is surprising because you think the consumer is in such good shape, can spend, spend, spend. and we're hearing from them there is less disposable income. >> we heard from a couple other companies as well. this is not necessarily that

shocking when you think about the product etsy sales, it is purely discretionary. nobody needs a mack may shirt or a mack may apron. >> some people might. >> some people i did. dan got me a really nice mack may pot holder it was very nice, thank you. but you don't need it. so that's the point. with etsy, though, i think this tells you that the edge state of the consumer is weak and it's not as strong as maybe the market priced in today >> so a couple of things, the consumer that's clearly one, although i don't know if that'setsy pointing to it when maybe it was little more etsy remember what a beneficiary etsy was of the pandemic. >> masks. >> masks were huge but people wanted things for their homes. pot holders. >> mack may ones. >> exactly so there is that and now the stocks could in a lot. the p/e is a lot, lot lower for sure but still, if you think of this as a pandemic winner, and we're coming out of it, as they're saying, we have a lot more choices, you can go into a

store, for example so that's sort of a confluence of some bad events forrette it is they did a great job during the pandemic but i get why it's down. should it be down. >> buyers only making one purchase a year? >> it's crazy. >> and the year was 2021 >> right not a very robust kind of business here. let's move on to book holdings here. tripadvisor. 390 a share. miss for tripadvisor both stocks are moving higher over what is expected to be a busy summer travel season. let's goat to seema mody with more from the report >> reporter: a record $27 billion, a jump of 129% compared to the prior year. books ceo glenn fogel says it's the highest quarterly amount in the company's history, citing an uptick in international flight searches on kayak and the largest sequential increase in alternative accommodations in the first quarter. that's the business that competes with airbnb and

expedia's vrbo despite the threat of inflation, executive says summer gross bookings are tracking 50% higher than 2019. those comments from executives sending shares higher by as much as 12% here in after hours but let's turn to tripadvisor. the company seeing a 229% increase in experiences in dining in the first quarter year-over-year long-time ceo steve coffer, he is stepping down the board appointing matt goldberg as the new ceo. stock is up 6% here in after hours. melissa? >> seema, thank you. seema mody so no macromet pot holders. >> i'm surprised it doesn't have any more dutch ovens these are the perceived areas of strength you've got to travel sector or these pockets within the travel sector, we've got health care and energy those are the areas of perceived strength but i begin to wonder, are we reiterating the playbook of demand full bore we saw in a lot

of other stay at home names. you've seen this across the board. you take a look at uber and lyft definitely there is bifurcation there in dynamics of their customers. i begin to wonder, is this getting a little long in the tooth? >> monday on the desk we were talking about expedia's, pretty decent results, really good commentary it meshed pretty well what we heard of united a couple of weeks. tuesday morning the stock was down 15% in a straight line. it really goes to show you just as far as sentiment right now, look at how the glass has turned from half empty to half full in 48 hours i'll just say this this is a company guy. the same thing about expedia pretty defensible as far as business model, 72% gross margin, growing sales 20% a year for the next few years again, i just think that these are the sorts of companies you want to be in for reopening. who knows when that will happen. here is the last point you got to look at people like etsy and think about why they're saying what they're saying about the consumer the consumer is no as strong

we know what happened over the last two years, why consumers' balance sheets were in great spots now, and the inflation picture is really going to kind of play i think a big role in what we think of the consumer over the next three to six months or so so to me, i suspect that we see consumer drop-off in the next few months or so but if you're buying a ticket, you're buying it ahead of time you're booking vrbo, you're buying it ahead of time. i don't think that's a great indicator for that. >> he said buying a ticket look at the airlines we all me they have been doing quite well but some are starting to say we're going to reduce capacity because there is a pilot shortage but then it goes back to the energy play. what is going to cost to run these planes again and as prices creep up and people say well, i did my blowout trip to hawaii, i don't know if i want to do another one to peoria, i think things start to die down. >> all right coming up, we're charting cheddar. could a strong dollar hit a key either area of the market fighting inflation the chart master will lay it out. stocks slugging off a half point hike as the central bank

tries to fight inflation more on that next. you're watching "fast money" live from the market site in times square back right after this. you'll always remember buying your first car. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price, our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine.

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recapping our top story, the fed says so long 75, and wall street says hello rally. the s&p jumped 3%, its best one-day gain since may of 2020 the dow surged more than 900 points, its best day since november 2020. and the nasdaq roared higher by 3.2% but our next guest isn't cheering the fed's moves today he says the chair is too optimistic and thinks powell is just winging it. peter bookbar with the advisory group and cnbc contributor great to have you with us. not that i care what twitter says necessarily, that were so negative

welcome to the party here. why do you think powell is just winging it in reality, isn't that what he should do? because we don't really know what will unfold so there is going to be a certain degree of quote, unquote winging it >> oh, i agree they're going to raise rates they're going to shrink the balance sheet and see what happens. part of the winking it was he was asked a question why aren't you starting qt now instead of waiting until june 1 he said we just decided to pick that day there was no science behind that then he was asked well, what's going to be the impact of qt well, we just really don't know. well, if you don't know the impact of qt, then why would we have qe? how would you know the impact of that there is a lot of throw stuff against the wall and see what happens. and i think they did that on the easing side, and they're going do that on the tightening side >> hey, peter, it's bk he talked a little bit about the

path to a softer, softish landing where. do you stand on that it seems to me that that's a pretty narrow needle that he needs to thread. >> well, this is going to be the most aggressive tightening cycle in 40 plus years between the rate hikes and the shrinking of the balance sheet. and considering how dependent economic activity is to cheap money, how comment markets have been to cheap money, i don't think it's possible to achieve a soft landing. >> peter, it's karen i think it's a question i asked last time you were on. if you were magically the fed chair today, what would your policy be? >> well, i would do what he is doing now. the difference between myself and jay powell is prior to this in terms of the amounts of easing and for how long they did it but i think he is on the path that he should be. and then we just get to see what happens. we all debate about what's priced into the markets, what's not. what's not priced in i believe

yet in full is the economic impact of all this the bond market's priced in pretty much all the rate hikes working again and then some. but i haven't seen earnings estimates for this year change at all and if in fact they've gone up so if there are low odds of a soft landing, which means we're going have a recession, well, that means earnings numbers are going to have to come down and the economic impact of not just what the fed does, but what the boe, the bank of canada. a global synchronized monetary tightening, i don't think the economic impact of all this has been fully priced into markets >> you know, peter, we were just talking about the notion that powell has control over the demand side and not the supply side, and we're seeing commodities go to these levels even with china's most populous cities effectively lock dodd unin some way, shape, or form. how do you see this playing out? let's say by fall or the end of the year, where do you think we

are in terms of the impact on a consumer near the u.s. and what we're seeing in terms of inflationary pressures do you think he gets at least some of the inflation out of the system >> well, i do believe that the rate of change and inflation has peaked out here. and it's just a question of how much do we fall. but there is a lot of price increases in the pipeline. i'll listen to a lot of conference calls, and companies are still going to take this year, and it's next year to recapture lost profit margin and then it gets to the question, at what point does the consumer blink in the face of these rising prices. and on the low end of the consumer, they're already beginning to blink whether etsy is a tip-off or seeing some others, the question is when do we get to these that breakage in other parts of the income strat ca column that's when the consumer says i'm going to wait. i don't need to do this right now. i'm going to wait to see if things cool down in terms of

pricing. i think we're running up to that line that we're about to cross over, which then has obvious economic implications. and then you start to see an eventual decline in inflation. but it's the inflation that eventually breaks the inflation. >> right peter, always great to get your take thank you. peter boockvar in peter's note earlier today before the fed decision came out, he made the point of the u.s. consumer being so used to discounts. remember once upon a time everybody waited until november. even past black friday, until a week before christmas to do all their shopping because prices would come down. here we are in a situation where it's assumed that the consumer is going to pay up price increase after price increase on toilet paper, on dog food, on pampers. >> on gas, on food the list goes on and on. listen, i think one of the most important thing peter aid, and he does really thoughtful work and he does listen to dozens and dozens of earnings calls, and i think that's where you get a lot of good stuff. earnings have not come down.

we had gdp in q1 that contracted we have all these inflationary pressures. they're still staying high so you're telling me s&p earnings are going to be up 8, 9, 10% no way i suspect they come in mid single digits, maybe low single digits the high valuation stuff, we're seeing that compression right now a down 50, 60, 70% we have not seen it in the mega cap names. i think that's the next shoe to drop this summer. >> the fed's willingness to be income destruction, wealth destruction within public markets and private markets. one thing that i think is flying under the radar is destruction within the housing sector and how that ties to the consumer. i don't think you really are able to tighten down spending in a way when people are still able to access additional credit in their homes. now those rates have continued to rise. but i think that's another shoe to drop that i'd be very interested to see how the fed is going to handle that. >> the desk is decidedly negative tonight i mentioned that before. >> karen is probably positive.

>> i wouldn't say i'm all that negative i'm skeptical of this 900-point rally that powell took 75 basis points off the table this market can rally. the equity investors want the decide, this thing can rally earnings estimates haven't come down he can go for it >> you believe it? >> i might not believe it, but i'll trade it. >> well, thanks, little miss sunshine i had a couple of things i actually thought were positive in the housing front there were two companies that reported too, residio, which is a spin-off from honeywell and bxe, also in the housing-related business both giant earnings and big forecasts. and why would you need to put out a big forecast in this market they must feel very confident. the other thing is the s&p, we always talk about this all the time, it's not a monolithic one-stock thing. the igv kind of names, the super high-tech software where ones get crush and things like a cvs today at 11 times earnings there is a lot of value out

there. >> it is kind of monolithic. there is five names that make up the weight of the stocks and the nasdaq 500 those names make about 45%. so it is monolithic. i think the fed buys apple all the time apple was trading 1% today, it really was, keeping the s&p and the nasdaq not looking nasty when i look at dozens of stocks that were down 5, 7, or 10% or so i think there is some funny business going on there. >> plunge protection >> i do. berkshire hathaway is all apple. coming up, could the strength of the u.s. dollar spell trouble for one key area of the market? carter worth is hitting the markets the lay it out plus, ride-sharing stocks slamming the brakes after rough results? is it time to drive away from this trade the details ahead. > ba itwney" is ckn o. >>the "fast money" podcast follow today on your favorite podcasting app we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money. the dollar falling today after the fed's big rate hike. but the chart master says its overall continued strength could be a headwind still for stocks he is sounding the alarm on one sector in particular let's go to carter worth of

worth charting carter, what do you see? >> sure, all sorts of things but something for everybody today. think about it friday the dow was down 939 points, and today it's up 932. here we are basically from last thursday bears, bulls, but still the fight goes on. staples, consumer staples, let's examine the circumstance and relation of the dollar first slide. we know that certain companies do a great percentage of their business overseas. so you can see the names here, but these are big names, and all of them have 50% plus of their sales outside the u.s. and so a strong dollar hurts those type of companies versus united health, a top 15 company has zero percent of its sales outside the u.s. for reasons that are obvious the next slide, just as a summary, basically we know the dollar is at a 20-year high, and we know in principle strong dollar is a headwind for u.s. companies, u.s. stocks, and

basically 30% of the s&p 500 sales come from overseas but then it get downs to which sector maybe is the most sort of impaired by that and it's consumer staples. and so let's look at a few charts, a few tables first, what you see here is the eps growth correlation year-over-year, sector versus the dollar and you see it right there on the bottom staples have the biggest problem, if you will, when the dollar is strong and so what i would say is there is a conundrum you can see it as written in this slide staples are the single most defensive sector and yet staples are the single most exposed to a strong dollar. so if one wants to be defensive, this is an area the strong dollar is a problem. so look at this ratio chart. this is very telling this is simply taking staples divided by the s&p, nor this case the spider's xlp relative

to the spy and i've used the 150-day moving average. and that is since '09. there have been three other instances when the staples were this extended over trend, and each and every time they've started to underperform. and i think that's the risk here and staples would be a favorite underweight for us and finally, a chart of the u.s. dollar we know that when you quickly approach a former high while it looks like it's going to be a breakout, that's not the sequence more often than not, before exceeding the high, you have to contend with it. so we got literally to the penny, to the january 2017 high, and we started backing away. and there was an accelerant today. dollar dropping both fed so the strong dollar is a problem for staples. you don't like them and want to be on your way and we do think that the dollar should pull back here because it's way overdone. >> all right carter, thank you. carter braxton worth of worth

charting carter was highlighting the relatively outperformance to the s&p 500. for the valuations too, relatively high compared to the s&p when you take a look at a proctor, a kimberly clark, coca-cola. they're natural the 20s, 26, 28. procter & gamble is in the 30s >> because it's been the place to hide, right you get decently high dividends. you look at it as a defensive type of sector if you are going to have a soft landing or a recession or something like that, you probably want to be in these games. if you still want to play that game, though, you can stick with the domestic ones. one that i am long as i mentioned before is altria all u.s.-based they don't necessarily have to worry about the stronger dollar. so that's one way to play it the other thing i would say is another part of the rally today, weaker dollar, people say maybe i don't have to worry about the dollar anymore so that boosts the rally so that could go on if we get a weaker dollar in the short to medium >> i misspoke. clorox is 36 all the rest are in the 20s. >> it's part of the argument

that people, guy makes it all the time that now that apple is a value stock, it trades at a glows stock multiple and it really does look like a consumer staple. a lot of people kind of put it in that category it is not immune to technology kind of secular shifts, that sort of thing. but again, if staples are going to have all of that overseas exposure you got think all right, what's going on in europe are they going to be in a recession soon enough? we know some of the issues there are just worse than they are here, and we don't have a lot of great visibility on when that war in ukraine ends. so to me, i think some of those staples that do get a loft exposure from europe, i think that's probably a tough trade at this valuation right now. >> so i think about sort of a derivative of that, a walmart or a target that walmart has some overseas exposure. but the majority is in the u.s. where they have costs that are in those foreign currencies. so that's a benefit to them. so i kind of like walmart here i like target here for the same reason target is entirely u.s >> coming up, the crypto climb

bitcoin jumping after a rough year for the space what is next for the trade here to break it down. plus, zero stars for the ride sharing trade uber and lyft hitting the skids as stock disappointments is it time tdreay? ay tuned if you invest in the s&p 500 your portfolio may be too concentrated in big companies. this can leave it imbalanced and exposed when performance varies. invesco's s&p 500 equal weight etf, rsp, is spread equally across the s&p 500,

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welcome back to "fast money. check out lyft and uber, both getting hammered today on the back of two very disappointing sets of results. uber dropping 4%, more than after reporting a loss of 5.9 billion before the bell, while lyft had its worst day ever, falling nearly 30% are the options traders now betting things can't get any worse? joining us no to break down a wild day of action in the names, mike >> typically when you see these kinds of huge moves, you get huge options volumes that wasdefinitely the case today. lyft traded 12 times the average daily call volume. uber traded well over 4 times the daily volume in lyft, the activity was mostly short dated, a lot of stuff expiring the end of this week. one of the trades was a purchase of the may 13th weekly 23 strike calls. those were extremely active. and that included institutional purchases including one under just 5200 contracts, for about 77 cents a contract.

buyer obviously betting that lyft could rebound by the end of next week. and that's modestly out of the money considering where the stock is now and uber, the situation was a little bit different so here the trade that caught my eye was a purchase of 2500 of the june 40/50 call spreads. those traded for $1.23 ultimately 10,000 of those traded by the end of the day that is well out of the money. in fact, uber would need to rise at least 50% for that trader just to break even and the higher strike call that they sold is 80% out of the money. it is possible that a trade like that could be used as a partial hedge against a short position but either way, it indicates some assessment that there is a possibility that the stock somehow rebounds that would be quite a move >> all right, mike, thanks mike khouw speaking of uber, do not miss the ceo, he'll be on "squawk box" tomorrow 8:30 a.m. on cnbc. bonawyn, higher or lower on uber and/or lyft? >> ooh, that's tough

lower. >> they go lower >> yeah, i think that option trade is purely them saying things are so bad that they've got to be good in the interim. nah, no. >> here is lyft. down 30%, down 80% who cares how much it's done i like these guys and i like their business model i prefer them to uber. we like the domestic focus it's got a $6.3 billion enterprise value right now it's probably almost there they have a lot of ash karen was just saying 2.3 in a $7 billion market cap. probably goes a little lower in the near term. but this is a name i think when we get back, we're going to see some strategic m&a maybe this is the sort of name. >> lyft gets bought? >> a lot of data there a lot of data. >> who would buy them? >> aren't they all going to autonomy isn't that the thing i'm just saying. they've also been doing this for ten years now and they have a lot of data about this stuff for me it seems like a very

cheap asset and brand that would be hard to replicate. >> for more "options action," tune in friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time coming up, bitcoin bounce. nearing the $40,000 mark once again. brian kelly is here to break down the crypto trade next "fast money" is back in two.

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get $400 off an eligible samsung device with xfinity mobile. take the savings challenge at xfinitymobile.com/mysavings or visit your xfinity store and talk to our switch squad today. welcome back here is a sneak peek at the cramer cam jim is talking with the ceo of clorox catch the full interview on "mad money. and do not forget, you can have cramer delivered right to your in box at the cnbc investing club sign up now at join the club or the qr code on your screen the crypto climbing nearly 6% as it tries to shake off its losses this year so far in 2022, bitcoin is down 13%. the move bringing other coins along for the ride, ether, solana, even doj coin is in the green. everything rallied so did bitcoin >> what's interesting is the correlation between bitcoin and the nasdaq 100 has been almost 70%. so it's been basically, the

nasdaq what we saw today is something slightly different when the nasdaq was tanking earlier in the morn and was down 1 1/2% or so, bitcoin was up that is the first time maybe the last couple of days we started to see divergence. you're seeing a slight, slight divergence there remember, bitcoin has been and will continue to be this hedge against money printing so everybody out there is saying okay, the fed is going to raise rates at some point in time, they're going have to turn that printer back on. and i think today people were trying to gauge when that is going to come. >> what's your outlook on ethereum you read almost every day about an nft going back on the market for much less than it was bought for. >> right >> and so you got to wonder, how about the coins backing it >> well, so the thing about ethereum, the big thing there is going to be the merge which is supposedly later this year it might have been this summer, but it got pushed back any time something comes with ethereum, you want to say it's going to take a little bit longer that is the big deal with ethereum everything is being built on it.

yeah, the nfts are coming down i've been skeptical because of what elon musk said today. they seem fungible you copy and paste them and you didn't pay for them. >> they're like jpegs >> to be clear, i think they're going to be huge, but not in the form they are today. >> you're missing it it's about community >> the land grab sale went up the other day. i got a question for bk, though. so part of the bitcoin story was the adoption of institutional investors needing to have exposure there is that that still the case? is that played out >> it's absolutely still the case because if you look at the institutions have barely come in, right? you have barely any pension funds, barely any major sfu institutions however, you are also getting macro funds in there which are trading it as a proxy for fed q liquidity. that's the dynamic right now the long-term trajectory for

bitcoin is still wildly bullish. a rht up next we have your final trade. (vo) verizon is going ultra! with 5g ultra wideband in many more cities, you get up to 10x the speed at no extra cost. plus six premium entertainment subscriptions, included! like disney+, music, gaming, and more! (mom) delightful. (vo) saving you over $350 dollars a year. and for a limited time get a 5g phone on us! no trade-in required. (mom) amazing. (vo) this is the offer you just can't miss! verizon is going ultra, so you can get more.

let's take a check on shares of amd this is one we addressed in after hours yesterday when they posted earnings. better than expected it was an interesting yesterday

trade, and i guess it really me rest flecked what happened with the broader markets when fed powell uttered those words the 75 basis points is not being considered at this time, dan >> yeah, this is a group that i heard you guys last night, i watch the show when i'm not on you guys were really good. you surrounded the trade here. listen, we saw a bad report out of intel we saw good results out of qualcomm, amd, there has been good result here is. we like to track this sector because it's fairly cyclical this is a cheap stock. the ceo had a great interview on the air this morning so yeah, it got on its horse it probably has some more room to run here. >> final trade time. bonawyn, what do you say >> berkshire i think this company has shown a toughness of being able to pounce and make acquisitions and turn with the markets. i'm sticking with them >> got the plunge protection put. >> karen >> i'm intrigued by dan's lyft idea this is a three-day rule one for sure but i think it's worth looking at 6, 7 billion enterprise

value? very interesting >> bk? >> if you want to play the rise in energy, exxonmobil, good dividend and they get good spreads. >> dan >> i like carter's charting of the xlp, the consumer staples etf. i would be a sell other after that too. >> thanks for watching "fast." see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 for more "fast money. meantime, "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. thanks" meantime "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica i'm trying to make you some money. my job not just to entertain, but educate, context, call me, 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer prepare for the worst, expect th