than 50 is 75 possible >> 75 is not something the committee is considering. andliesman will be here as we follow jay powell's path he'll be on. and the fed ordered the biggest rate hike in years, what should you do with your money? and we bring you new data on inflation and consumer spending trends from mastercard and cnbc small business survey. it's thursday. is it? may 5th. 2022 i know what i want more breakfast. "squawk box" begins right now.

good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin check it out we have seen quite a week. especially yesterday if you look at the u.s. equity futures, a slight pull back. dow down 133 s&p off 25 nasdaq down by 108 this comes after the fed fueled relief rally dow up 1,000 points. a gain of 932. that is about 2.8% by the way, it was the least best performer s&p up 3%. nasdaq up 3.2% it all came after the comments from jay powell. the treasury markets took all of this in stride what happened was it was already priced in to the markets

10-year rate is where it was yesterday. you are talking 2.954% 5-year treasury is lower it is at 2.938%. 2-year is 2.83%. the crude oil is rising again. a lot of concern with russian oil which is no longer used in the eu right now, wti up at $107.88 that makes you wonder. andrew, we have the man who sparked the rally with this question >> lies-mania. 6:02 in the morning. the fed sparked rerlief rally he may be responsibility steve. >> thank you, andrew just doing my job. i guess my promotional people are writing the intro. the federal reserve delivers the 50-base point rate hike as

expected an flnounced the plan to reach billion a month. combination ratchets the fed up to the most aggressive tightening the chair took 75 points off the table and replaced it with 50 over the next two. the reasons is that powell put guardrails in. the may meeting saw the fed recommit to being predictably hawkish. here is the possibility of the soft landing over what he stated in the past. >> i think we have a good chance to have a soft or soft-ish landing or outcome households and businesses are in strong shape you are looking at excess savings on balance sheets in the sense they are substantially

larger than the prior trend. businesses in good financial shape. labor market is very, very strong so, it doesn't seem to be anywhere close to a down turn. >> i think investors might be mistaken if they heard an all clear signal from powell the fed moving fast on rates and the balance sheet. powell is going rapidly to neutral which is the 2% to 2.5% range and will further go above that he said he did take off the table the 75 basis point leap for now. he did not limit how far the fed may have to go to get control of the inflation. andrew >> i'm curious when were you in the room and heard the answer, was it clear that the market would take off or the market -- it sounds like you are saying the market misunderstood what was happening. >> look, i stand back and say that's interesting why did that happen? i don't second guess it. i did go back this morning and

look at the tape let's go back to april 18th. when bullard said to me that we could do 75. the market was nonplussed. it was at 11:20 on thursday, may 21st that mary daly said we could do 25 or 50 or 75 we will deliberate it all. thatis when the market on the s&p went down 9.6% to 4.065% that remained unchecked. the idea that the fed could be random or could do 75 and the market could be worried -- that fre freaked out the market we will not do 75. the market liked the idea of the

guardrails powell said we're going fast down the highway, but we are going to obey some of the lines on the road and we will be deliberate and tell you what we are going to be doing. that helped the market out did it go too far? i don't know that's not my job. i cover the fed. >> steve, there have been times when we asked whether market players in they saw the fed really wasvigilant we thought some market traders liked the fed to be more hawkish than what we thought maybe bond traders do press the buy signal when the fed goes further. i don't think it -- it is the punch bowl always works. that should be the default position if it looks dovish -- they will never want to take their medicine right now

stock traders. no >> i think that's right, joe this has been an historic time and massive readjustment to what's happening it has been difficult to move from the fed being wide open to the fed taking away, as you say, the punch bowl i think powell is right to one extent matters how you take the punch bowl away. i think what he did yesterday was put a kibosh on the randomish and outside talk going on he said we will do this, but do it in a deliberate way i want to make a quick point, joe, if you don't mind it is about the cnbc fed survey. it came in earlier this week more dovish than the market. it was more closely aligned with what powell said than where the market was priced. i think that is an interesting tell which is the people who answer on the fed survey listen to the fed and observe the fed

they know the market prices the way the market prices and nuanced of how policy will go down that was a great atifying outcoe the fed pointed to a way of a dovish fed than the market priced in. it is worth taking a look at the market this morning. itg aggressively. it is going up 100 basis points by august and 200 basis points in the next couple months. >> it could matter it could matter whether people like paul tudor jones who was on the other day -- a whole class of people that think we sort of let it get out of hand and we need to get it under control sooner rather than later. >> right. >> it is weird you see a slower move higher embraced like that it could all be reversed >> the issue is you still look around and it makes sense from the perspective that we don't know what will happen with a

recession coming on quickly and higher inflation prices. i like hearing they are still paying attention >> a group of people every day who think we are behind the curve. >> we will move and more decisively and look at the facts. that leads us to a bad place. i like they are watching and seeing how they will react >> steve, this ends up being just a respite from the down trend we have been in yesterday. we were behind the curve we need 75 >> i want to echo something that becky said right after the meeting, i called paul mcculley sometimes with a beard sometimes without a beard. >> do they have phone service up on that mountain where he is in the lotus position >> he is still one of the smartest guys on monetary policy

and fixed income he said a rule of forecast, you never forecast around two turns. i'll never forget that the significance of that is to becky's point. powell knows he is going to neutral. he has to get there. he told you he needs to go beyond neutral he doesn't at this moment have to tell you how far he is going. joe, what you are -- >> he doesn't know what neutral is. >> they have an idea they have a place. 2.25 or 2.50 maybe they get help from the inflation numbers or maybe paul tudor jones is right and larry summers. he doesn't need to forecast that now. you at home are free to play the fed game and say you know what the fed is going further i don't believe what powell is saying and i have a different take or take the other side and maybe by the summer with the supply

chain stuff back on the market you know the story how this ends powell is saying i'll go further if i need to and i don't need to tell you now >> you think it is kibosh. on "seinfeld" it was kibosh. >> even if it is not officially. it is grown. >> is it brinksmanship >> what's up >> brinkmanship. >> sorkin, i was going to talk about booking holdings we don't have time now did you look at that, lies >> we'll talk about that after the break. >> they lost so much money did they have netflix? they had a huge loss based on -- we'll find out do you know? they should focus on travel

bookings that's probably good advice for a lot of companies marketable not bitcoin? >> you see where bitcoin is this morning. were you surprised >> yeah. we will have katie on. did it hold 40 >> just below. coming up, getting ready for the trading day ahead. plus, we will talk technicals with katie stockton we will dig into the jay powell announcement with former fed vice chair roger ferguson and glenn fogel and david rubenstein and judy shelton we have ceo dara ayosrowshahi st tuned you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc

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comcast business. powering possibilities.™ thanks, paul. my fellow xfinity customers! the biggest week in entertainment is here! watchathon week presented by xfinity rewards! with free access to stranger things from netflix, the boys from prime video, starz, hbo max, and peacock. and we'll make this a national holiday. nay. holi-week. just say watchathon into your voice remote to watch now. on today's squawk planner, the bank of england is set to release the interest rate decision it is expected to raise rates for the 40fourth consecutive meeting. that comes after the fed raising rates here earlier this week and then earlier in the week,

australia, too back here in the united states, we get weekly jobless claims and productivity data at 8:30 a.m. on the earnings front, we hear from conocophillips and kellogg and spirit airlines. joe. stock surged and treasuries fell after jay powell took a 75-point hike off the table. joining us now is katie stockton a big bounce back, katie we had a lot of technical damage recently in terms of the market coming down. did that reverse things yesterday or do you think we're still in it? that's the wrong way to shake your head. you are going like this. can you go like this >> i would love to the conversations have not been

all that fun lately with my clients. there's not much positive to say about this market right now from the technical perspective. with yesterday's move, it feels like we have short-t term that last days, but it could be a bear trap. we have a loss of upturn momentum there is downside momentum if you see real deterioration in the momentum gauges. as the same time, if you look at market breadth, it has been terrible, especially in april. we saw major expansion in the number of stocks participating on down days that is rarely a good thing for the market and those of you that are following shorts, take a step back. you can see head and shoulders if the s&p took out the 42

support level, that things could get pretty bad. >> it coincides with what i was talking to steve about fundamentally. the markets always seem to embrace, i think, the easy money. if a question is answered in a way that market players perceive the punch bowl stays longer. it initially goes up i don't know if you call it a sugar high or what does that eventually come home to roost do you think the fed should be going further faster and make us feel good with only 50 basis it makes us feel good, but will that be a long-term negative >> some contrary perspective is the market tends to bottom that is the stuff of market

bo bottoms. it has to get worse before we can feel like we can get back into the marketable force. there are few positive technical catalysts to take advantage one-day move like that gives me pause. when you see knee jerk reaction, the rallies tend to be fast and furious. it suggestion the market is in a down trend you see that year to date. i think we will see the breakdown below 42 >> you don't always need to talk about bitcoin. you made the case that bitcoin is coincidence with the stock market with terms of moves or leading the market did the 40,000 level hold or would you say -- you're shaking your head again the wrong way.

you think 27,000 is the next objective or did it hold 40? >> it didn't hold. >> give or take 1500 does it matter if it is 38 or 40 >> it feels eerily quiet in crypto the bitcoin chart is broken by my measures. if you look at the sideways price action, that is enough to break support level because they are moving targets that 40,000 was broken decisively a good couple of solid closings below that level we had a neutral momentum, it puts support at 27,200 it suggest thes there it is more down site risk it rolled over don't give you much hope if you look at the correlations, it has been high with the equity

market versus the nasdaq 100, it is 84% in the last quarter we see bitcoin treated like a risk asset equities may break down and we can see the same from bitcoin. >> at leeast you are not saying good things when you shake your head yeah, everything looks great your words match your head shakes >> it's more fun to be bullish, but times we have to take a step back and realize the risk management is appropriate. >> yeah. on both of those markets and you are warning there may be more to come thank you, katie next time you come on, you may shake this way instead of that way. >> hope so andrew >> coming up, bill gates out with a new warning about elon

musk's purchase of twitter sort of. we have details after the break. here is a look at the s&p winners and losers "squawk box" will be right back. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today.

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welcome back to "squawk box. bill gates making comments on the elon musk $44 billion deal to take twitter private. he spoke yesterday at the wall street journal summit. gates, i don't know if you got a chance to see this, guys, was

quizzed about his views on elon musk because of the tweets we saw two weeks ago where it appeared that elon musk had screen shotted his text messages with bill gates where bill gates said he would shot tesla and musk said if you short tesla, i cannot talk to you about philanthropy and bill gates said he did extraordinary things for climate change and musk did extraordinary things for climate change the valuation of tesla and you vote against tesla was not a sign for climate change or not he was asked about what he thought of twitter and what elon musk would do with twitter he suggested he thought musk would do great things with twitter or he was hopeful.

there was a little bit of a warning at the end where he suggested that if he made it worse, maybe bill gates would speak out against that he wasn't betting on it. >> never underestimate elon. if you are shorting the company for a long time, it is hard to do that. you made the valid point misinformation is out there. bill gates has been tagged with the idea he is tracking people with the vaccines. he comes with this with hesitation to see how things are twisted the last couple of years personally >> he didn't like the body shaming of one of the tweets that elon sent out did not sit well with bill >> he said he would work with him.

>> he is trying. >> whatever happened here -- i don't want to say water under the bridge bill gates is appearing to take the high road. >> you want to return to the grace and as ivcivility we saw g the trump years. people were nice to republicans and the deploradeplorables. all of the grace that the left shows. you want to rernturn you don't want to see a pregnant picture of bill gates. >> grace and civility? >> we have to get back to where we were during the graceful and civil years that we saw. >> no grace. that was not grateful. >> on either side. >> oh, no. a false --

>> a severed head and i want to punch him? that is civility from the left >> you know me i don't like any of that stuff things have been done on both sides that are innappropriate. on a relative basis, if you kept a ledger on the blockchain on one side is much higher than the other. >> you ever watch "the view" here which side is more intolerant? >> you are more intolerant >> no, you >> get real. >> we like each other here anyway, when we come back, new data on the american economy. consumer spending and the health of small business. that's next. big pre-market declines for ecommerce companies. well dig into reports from e-bay and etsy.

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. checking out the futures after an a really big move yesterday added when the question asked and the minutes and hours following and it just accelerated into the close giving back a little this morning. in individual names, andrew, e-bay. >> shares are following. $1.05. current quarter consensus falling. shares of etsy are falling after

earnings met expectations. guidance weaker than expected. back off 11% executives blaming the guidance on tough comps and inflation and the war in ukraine becky. thanks, andrew cnbc and survey monkey out with a small business survey. kate rogers breaks it down kate >> reporter: good morning. small business ownersconfident,e sure a recession is on the way the index for q2 found 8 in 10 owners expect a recession in 2022 6% say the economy is excellent. 44% say it is poor a third say it is fair there is a political divide with more republicans than democrats are confident things will turn for the worse. as for the top issue on main street inflation. a key issue for nearly 4 in 10

small business owners. fewer are raising prices 17% say now is a good time for businesses to raise prices with 1/3 saying it is a bad time to hike. likely a time to lose customers when everyone is paying more for everything confidence is at an all-time low. we will have more on the small business playbook event this afternoon. tune in for that back to you. kate, thank you very much. in the meantime, mastercard is out with new data. the april spending report measures in store and online sales. mastercard says retail sales are steady and up 7.2% year over year joining us with more on this is steve sedof. he is the mastercard senior adviser. steve, the numbers are strong. people are worried about inflation and recession and they

are supposedly cutting back on spending that is not what you see when you look at the numbers. >> that's right, becky we are seeing a strong consumer. we have seen it throughout the first quarter. the consumer is healthy and continuing to spend and importantly back in the stores again. we are looking at store volume up 10% while internet volume is down about 2%. so what we have seen is a back to stores and cutting across all categories of retail apparel is strong. strong luxury and jewelry performance. i think what has happened is we had gone back to pre-pandemic environment in the sense that people like ygetting out and thy want experiences and pr surprisingly, the consumer has a healthy balance sheet. they may start to dip into savings a little bit overall, we are seeing a robust

consumer there may be an inflation that is driving a part of the 7%. overall, the consumer is still shopping and shopping across a broad range of categories. >> you brought up a key point. these numbers are not considering inflation. inflation is 7% or 8%. it sounds like the consumer is spending the same amount in terms of purchasing power. they just have to spend that much to keep up? >> that's a fair statement in terms of volume is probably relatively flat. a lot driven by the price inc increase the consumer has the money in the pocket to go ahead to continue to spend sdp. >> we heard from kate rogers that owners are reluctant to raise prices they are worried they will lose customers. does that fit the sense from retailers? >> i think the brands that have

pricing power are taking pricing. what you find is that it is driven by the strength of the brand. if you are a commodity brand and price follower, you are not a leader brands that have the pricing power and brand equity, i think they are taking pricing and carrying through on the supply chain increase you are seeing that with the earnings where you see reasonably strong earnings in the first quarter. >> we have talked about the weakness with the online consumers. e-bay. people are back out and getting back out there they are not stopping spending, but not continuing to see the growth online. >> if you look at it pre-pandemic, we almost doubled the direct-to-consumer internet sales. let's call it 9% to 18% of commerce there was the belief of the death of the store in the

beginning of the pandemic. now we are gone to a situation where the internet has slowed and stores are back. the reality is a reversion people want to shop anywhere they can buy products. it is not online the online brands are having a tough time where they are not having enough stores brands like warby parker are opening up a lot of stores and the stores are obviously being very strong on the internet i just don't believe it is an internet versus stores it is both it is not just stuff it's also experiences. we are now into a world where people want to get out and they are going to restaurants and starting to travel the travel numbers are very strong i think the internet was overhyped relative to thinking it was just going to be about the internet that's why you see such a slowdown in the number of the internet brands.

>> reversion to the need of the online shopping. are you expecting? >> it was double the level pre-pa pre-pandemic >> steve, thank you. steve sad ove. telling us the numbers that is taking place in the country. joe. coming up, meta slowing the pace of hiring details after the break. don't miss our interview with uber ceo khosrdara khosrow in the 8:00 hour >> announcer: currency check is sponsored by interactive brokers. the professionals gateway to the world's markets.

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shares of bookings holdings are higher the travel site operators beat revenue for the first quarter. $27 billion in gross bookings. the ceo glenn fogel says they are preparing for a busy travel season he will join us in the 7:00 hour first on cnbc. the actual numbers and some of

the gains year over year and compared to 2019 have you seen the commercials? is that idris elba i think that is what he is doing. have you seen it, sorkin he is pretty smooth. idris. he's cool. something about being lit. he says this isn't lit unless you say literal. that is what the name. little little they could impact to some extent the bottom line in the future. doing an amazing amount of business you know what that market capital in the company is? $80 billion. i checked it a couple of times is that possible $80 billion? priceline and kayak and all those other things you use it you must use it, andrew?

>> i'm a kayak guy >> kayak guy what will that do? collate everything and give you the best price >> give you options for different places and different times. >> not just for white water rafting tours? >> nope. >> could you book one of those online >> have i tried? never tried. >> andrew? do you think something in idaho >> probably not. you probably have to put the credit card in the slot in the computer, joe. >> i know. i'm giving you a bunch of boomer material to work with. i'm drumming up the ageism suit i got going. anyway what about facebook? >> this is you >> it is mat ti meta >> we're waiting for you >> another one i'm an expert

web 3.0. i know everything. meta is slowing the pace of hiring the person familiar with the plans tells cnbc that meta will stop or slow hiring for senior or mid-level roles after doing this for entry level roles the revenue growth slows and the company dealing with macro issues and inflation concerns and global undcertainty. the spokesperson tells us that they regularly reevaluate the talent pipeline. and given the guidance, it is slowing the growth facebook will continue to grow its work force to ensure to focus on long-term impact. we didn't talk about cinco de mayo that i understand. on a thursday, you don't want to waste it, do you cinco de mayo on a thursday. that's a day where you almost

can already be weekend >> taco thursday >> margaritas. something like that. thursday, you have one more day. >> it's only 7:00 a.m. we can get rolling right about now. salt on the rim? >> salt on the rim you like blanco tequila? >> i got to be honest. i like a frozen markgarita whatever you put in it, doesn't matter. >> what do you use the parasol for? >> it makes you feel fun and in the mood. >> i'm with becky. figur anything with an umbrella in it. >> me, too coming up when we return, the fed hiking interest rates by 50 basis points for the first time since 2000. think about it g

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welcome back to "squawk box. jay powell getting a vote of confidence from the markets after the fed hikes rates 50 basis points left a 50-point basis point on the table for the next two meetings >> a 75-point basis is not

something we are considering we raised 50 basis points today, and we said that assuming that economic and financial conditions evolve in ways that are consistent with our expectations, there is a broad sense on the committee that additional 50-point bases should be on the table for the next meetings >> each jumped about 3%. and i want to bring in former vice chairman of the federal reserve as well as a cnbc contributor. good morning also, do you think that the markets overshot, understood it properly what is the take away in. >> first, when i heard all that, it's very much by the playbook one is a little bit of guidance,

validating i think what had been priced no priced into the market at least for now. i thought the markets reacted frankly, relatively strongly to what to me was not technparticuy startling news and i thought they ignore add a few things th were caution from the chair. >> what do you think they misunderstood? >> i think the points of caution were three one is he described the possibility of a soft or quote sof softish landing. he described that as a plausible bath and certainly pointed out that they have very plblunt too and some things may be beyond their control. so it's pretty clear that he has

a preferred path toward a soft landing, but there was some flexibility built inaround that, that maybe it will be more softish and perhaps they can't control their destiny as fully as they'd like >> roger, when bullard started bandying about this 75-point basis point idea, do you think that was an unauthorized sort of idea, and to put that into the market place in part, potentially to sort of dampen where things had been? can you sort of take us behind the scenes of how these things happen does that mean that powell won and bullard somehow lost? is there something else to this >> no, i think bullard has been speaking very much for himself he obviously, as everyone on the committee, as they said, is focussed on inflation. i think there are judgment calls as to exactly what the pace should be. one took note, i took note of the fact that there are no

dissents yesterday so i think part of what may have worked well was this clear commitment to two more 50-basis point moves, and i think that perhaps would have gotten president bullard a little bit more comfortable it obviously is going to be case by case. tore another thing is they toughened up their language to really emphasize that inflation is a clear and present danger they are clearly stating inflation is job one, and you heard jay powell say that in his address to the american people i think that also helped president bullard feel that the committee was on the right path in his perspective >> roger, we'll continue to watch this and we'll at acontint have you back. thank you. when we come back, book holdings is one of today's big

movers ceo, glenn foegele will join us to dog to talk about the resurgence of travel o talk aboue resurgence of travel talk aboute of travel. talk about the resurg of travel.

welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kiernan and becky quick. after we got that news from jay powell yesterday, sending the markets higher the dow up about 185 points, nasdaq down about 118 points and this after the fed raised interest rates half a percent. if we see what we expect to see, we would expect to have 50 basis points on the table at the next two meetings we will hear from steve liesman in just a minute on the rate decision, and later, david rubenstein's going to be joining us to discuss what it all means

for the economy and markets. and in the next hour, author and economist, former fed nominee, judy shelton, will be joining us as well. a couple other big stories to tell but this morning earnings, dom chu is here with a look at premarket movers of the. >> they're on the move fresh news on that earnings front. becton dickinson is where we'll begin. shares are down a percent or so. this is the medical technology and supply company it's at 1.25%, strength in becton's medical supplies business helped offset some dropoff in its covid-related testing revenues on balance, you can see a company that's just about frat fflat for the year then you've got shares of

seaworld thinner volumes. the parent company like its namesake parks,less also busch gardens. if you strip out the effects of international guests and those if large group gatherings, attendance was actually 16% higher than the first quarter of 2019, which was pre-pandemic so on balance, sea world shares up 28% over the last year. and we're going to end with a check on arguably the most important stocks in the market, the four members of the so-called trillion club, apple, microsoft, alphabet, amazon. each of those tstocks right now gained in yesterday's session, some in a big way. for apple, microsoft and alphabet, 3% to 4% gains the big move yesterday, powering that, we are seeing a hillittlet

of that pull back. keep an eye on those stocks. they did power the gains yesterday the we'll see if they stabilize a little bit more in today's session. we also have other breaking news that just took place this morning. elon musk appears to have lined up $7.2 billion in funding commitments in equity for his bid to buy twitter according to a new sec filing, the filing listing investors who committed funds, they include oracle larry ellison and sakwoiqua capital. elon musk, when he completes that deal, he had previously been criticized saying that his bid undervalued twitter. there are a couple other names in that filing we have to keep our eye on as well i don't know if -- but

fascinating, what he does do, becky, is take some of the pressure off elon musk in terms of how much money he's going to ultimately have to put up. >> and tesla shares, too i'm looking at the list right now. bamco is on that i think they've got $100 million. larry ellison, i's up for a billion dollar commitment for thcht sequoia has $800 million commitment on some of these things, but it will be interesting. we reached out to ron. >> there's a line in the filing, becky that seems to suggest that there's still conversations going on around whether jack dorsey would roll his stake in i don't know if you saw that >> i did not see that. i'm just looking at the chart he put out. >> and then we knew ellison's mai name has been there all along. >> they're tight >> and aligned to some extent,

getting close to 54.20 now when it was down at 48 you were like neighbor won't p ha we still got regulatory issues and in europe, they're horrified over there, not surprisingly in they have some of this, last week is when europe said they were going to move forward with all these restrictions if we tell you on any social media platform that we don't like what you're doing you're going to have to deal with that. if he does win this bid, it's a global company, he'll have to deal with them the new regulation rules >> is the way the european rules work, they can take up to 6% of your revenue, annually, if they feel that you were not, you would effectively lose the case. but that's what the fine is. >> he's not their native son, either, know what i mean he's one of those ugly americans

that they're jealous of. he's here now, and they've got s.a.p. >> likely hard to create a bifurcated version of twitter. this is what europe's trying to do everywhere, whatever those rules are, effectively come here it will be interesting to see how that changes the dynamic of his interest in twitter and what he can ultimately do with it >> all right, let's kick it over to steve liesman he has more on yesterday's historic federate decision what it meant, and what we can expect and how the banks are reacting teach, take it away. >> let me start with bank of england raising its rates by a quarter. what they are doing is they're now saying that their inflation forecast has gone from 5.5% to

10.25% they now expect a contraction in the economy. now they're thinking the economy m co will contract. they are seeing their rates rise by mid 2023. the committee hiked rates by 50 points fed chair jay powell also saying it's likely the fed will hike 50 basis points at the next two meetings, but then of course he said this. >> 75 basis point increase is to the something the commit see actively considering what we are doing is we raised 50 basis points today, and we've said that, fen, assuming that economic and financial conditions evolve in ways that are consistent with our expectations, there's a broad sense on the committee that additional 50 basis increases should be on the table for the

next two meetings. >> there are other dovish moments to the hawkish statement. powell was upbeat on a softer, softish landing meaning essentially no recession is in his forecast, and the possibility of inflation may have peaks but he was taking 75 off the table, which seemed to capture the market's attention it could be that powell's putting guard rails around it. george gonical recess write is the name of the game in a world. investors should not confuse that uncertainty with how much the fed will tighten with an unwillingness to tighten >> it's an expectations game jay powell has this unfortunate task of taking these investors

who are willing to stampede the market in one direction or the other. they take off running, okay, rein it back in. he's not going to do enough. he's just got this constant game of trying to corral the market, which inevitably always tries to run to the terminal point. as soon as you hear any hints of what he's thinking f >> it's a great point, becky but i don't though, i'm kind of having a monday morning quarterbacking episode on thursday here's what i'm trying to figure out. is there a way for me to figure out that the market was so tightly wound about this 75 basis point thing. i went back and saw what i reported that week that this whole notion came out, the week of 4/20. and i said the whole time i don't think the fed's doing 75 that was one two, is if you look at how the market traded, it traded down

from that moment that mary daley started talking about 75 basis points i think they took 500 points offer the s&p. you pneed to sort of pay attention to what gets the market in fits here, and it was this notion of 75. and i think powell was perhaps prepared for this question obviously, he doesn't know what i'm going to ask but what's clear is that he made a definitive statement about this he wanted the market to know we're not doing 75 >> i tell what you that tells me, steve, listen to liesman, ta take it to the bank. >> but you're right, becky, the market gets cross ways and sideways and gets in fits about things and wouldn't let it go. in a sense, you could maybe say that was a failure of the fed overall to communicate that. but of course -- >> i don't think so.

>> of course powell cannot, just to be fair to powell, he cannot express the committee's decision ahead of the committee sitting and deciding and talking, right? >> i just think he's talking to all of us who have a.d.d. when it comes down to this. the entire market wants to hear one thing, we want to know the answer, and we want to know it now, and we run that direction as soon as we think we know what he's saying. this is a much more nuance game there are a lot of moving piece the there are a lot of things he has to consider, he and the committee. it's a lot more nuanced, and he's willing to admit he doesn't know the answer. thanks, teach, we'll he sao you later. when we come back. pent up demand for leisure travel you bet, people want to get out there. we will speak to the ceo of the largest holding company, and what they're hearing as people

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stocks delta, booking holdings, marriott, royal caribbean, all up double digits in the past two months and joining us now is glenn fogel, president and ceo of booking holdings, boci don't wat you immediately complaining, it doesn't show today's move, does it that's not fair. let's look at what's going on today we showed it up 17%. i just checked my math a couple times. what time did you set the alarm for, like, 3:00? >> i am happy. travel is coming back. this is something that everybody feels pretty good about.

in i >> if you don't follow closely, i was wondering if you were a really crappy investor or something, because you did have a loss of marketable securities of 700 million, but you invested in these company when is they were private you've got didi and other companies that you think long time are where you want to be. but every quarter you have to disclose how they've moved but that's up side and the down side >> it's interesting. rarely do people tell us when the value of these equities have gone up, but you're sprabsolutey right. we're still in the blanl china obviously a different way to try to access companies, with didi, huge customer bases to reach out to these are things that are obviously going to be volatile right now it's a bit of a

downturn for them, but this is for the long run >> exactly some of the numbers, also, i had to check a few times a lot of them like hundreds, na gains of like 100% in some of your metrics what's more appropriate to measure against? both i think are pertinent >> i do like to look back to 2019, when the world was normal, to see how are we doing against that time period because i agree. sometimes you look against last year, and it's just not really rell rant. t april still going strong, very pleased about it, and i think we're all excited about this summer >> you know, the flip side of that is your marketing expenses, sales and marketing expenses, they were much lower during the pandemic, obviously. and they're going to go back up, i would think.

and some people are pointing to that that is correa real part oa side of the income at the same time you need to spend to make money, and you're ramping that up spending quite a bit at this point. >> well, there's no doubt that i am very interested in making sure people are coming back to travel, that they remember who we are and i want to lean into this time period where people are beginning to think about interest travel. i want to make sure people are thinking of us we definitely are going to make sure that our name and things that we do well are in front of the customer's mind-set. >> who's my idol he can still do commercials. i think he can do anything for you. i've seen him in a movie he's playing basketball one on one. now you have idris elba who i mentioned. he can't be cheap.

>> listen. good people in this industry, they cost a bit of money, that's correct, but we always want to look at our roi, and we're very pleased with what we did at the super bowl i think we getting brand awareness in the u.s., which is important. >> with idris elba, you just can't help but get attention i don't know if you saw "the wire" or any of the things he's been in. i guess i do watch a lot of tv, but certainly noticed that i didn't think europe was necessarily going to be such a bright spot, because, you know, there's a horrific war going on, not too far from a lot of destination spots, but that is not holding people back at this point? >> well, you know, it's hard to

know what would it be if there had not been this. and i think your words are correct, joe, a horrific war and if there hadn't been that, how much stronger would the travel be. certainly, the european traveler is coming back, and no doubt, when that terrible war broke out, we were impacted, eastern europe particularly, but people are till thinking okay, i'm going to go travel and people are doing it >> do you think in terms of your forecast where's covid now this your view, what do you say about the lockdowns in china, the different variants here. would you say it's in the rear view mirror? or is it still a large part of your future risk factors for the company? >> no, i think it has to be, in everybody's risk factors nobody knows it's interesting, when we did our call back in november, going over the third quarter, but it was our fourth quarter

nobody was thinking omicron at all. we were thinking okay, things are going to come back, and omicron came out, and we're like, ah-oh, what's going to happen it is a risk, but people want to travel, and people are looking at what are their personal risk, and if they feel safe to travel, they start to travel two things that help us, one, people feel it's safer to travel, and two, governments reducing restrictions or eliminating restrictions, and i really wish the u.s. would eliminate the restriction that requires people to take a test the day before you get on a plane to come to the u.s i think that's hurting the u.s. travel industry. we have nipeople in europe who y i won't go to the u.s. these people would come to the u.s., and i really wish the administration would look at this and say is this the best thing to do. >> 10% on your 85 billion. you're bigger than boeing, your market cap >> well, you know, joe, our

market cap's still below where it was in the past >> i know. bookings holdings. it's really, i think that's a credit to what you've been able to accomplish at the company pretty amazing and andrew uses kayak, and apparently, it's motte just for trips to the snake river >> i think we have to remind andrew that kayak is part of bookings holdings. >> i know that, that's why i said that. >> thank you, andrew, thank you very much. >> i've been using it for ten years, 15 years. i don't know how long it's been around >> around three years. i don't know whether that's true no, i'm kidding. it has been around that long already, right ten, 15? all right, glenn fogel, thanks

appreciate having you on >> thank you very much coming up, we're going to kayak away, because apple store workers in maryland beginning union drive over there, we'll kayak over there the third store to do so will it lead to a labor battle with the company we will have both sides of the argument and much more on yesterday's rate hike. david reubeubenstein's going to with us. time now for today's aflac trivia question. the pioneer steam coffee and spice mills is none to be the first company to mass-produce coffee thcoannoextsnde mpy w is uer what name in the answer when cnbc "squawk box" continues. his unexpected medical bills. aflac? - (whimpers) i don't think he has any candy in there.

am i at least going to get hit hard enough to forget this? nobody is going to forget this, ever. (bat hitting) - ohhhh i'mma call his momma. aflac! aflac!

now the answer to our trivia question the company now exists under what name? the answer, folger's employees at an apple retail store in maryland this week file add request to hold a union

election after a store in atlanta became the first to file it comes as amazon warehouse workers have organized several union votes with mixed results will this push tech's growth john for the is here to weigh in on all this. >> more than half of apple's employees work in retail and unlike the staff in cupertino, retail workers aren't making hypercompetitive wages and benefits they are going to push the company's ability to design how work gets done that's going to cut into apple's profits. this extra bit of bureaucracy is going to cut down on apple's innovation i don't fault the workers for

w wanting better pay and flexibility. but the problem with this union situation is the gap this opens up between leadership and the workers. now look at amazon similar problem. gentleman who led the successful push at the one staten island. unions are going to make it that much harder for leaders to make m smart adjustments. >> apple isn't approaching it the same way amazon did. which do you think would be a more successful take >> on the other hand, union organizing might be what tech needs. this could be good not just for workers but for the companies themselves it's no accident that two of the most successful companies in tech, apple and amazon have the bulk of their workers in retail

and logistics. amazon needed its delivery network to drive convenience and loyalty. at the same time, the overall tech-driven u.s. economy is pushing us toward people working alongside software in stores and robots in warehouses the danger is in the process those workers will get rift behind as the brookings institution outlines in a pookbook this year i say just like apple built and scaled platforms in ios and the app store, workers need a platform to scale their voice and represent their interests in this emerging economy. and it became claear during the pandemic where workers felt like their concerns weren't being heard quickly enough they haven't created economic mobility for entry-level workforces fort union focuses on the right

priorities and management doesn't antagonize the unions, they could give as you healthy future in the ai-driven economy. >> the mantra in silicon valley has always been move fast to break things these tech companies, though, have picked up so many of the old-line economy things when you're talking about retail, the warehouses and maybe they just haven't adapted quickly enough to the needs on those fronts. >> i think that's part of t this is the big work. unions have focussed a lot on pay and benefits and see majority in this economy, retraining and actually that economy, how do you get a warehouse worker into being a coder or marketer within amazon how do you get a retail store employee actually on a tr trajectory that gets them into cupertino. you have a lot of underrepresented demographics of workers in these workforces, in

retail for apple, and they talk about wanting to increase diversity and opportunity. if they can figure out that pipeline, even with the help of unions, it could be good for them >> that's really interesting, the idea of training so you can get an entry-level job to eventually get into this panacea of where the great jobs are. that would be kind of amazing for those companies to figure out with or without a union. that's a really interesting pipeline thought john, thank you. >> thanks. mm-hm. still to come, david rubenstein will join us for his reaction to yesterday's fed meeting, the rate hike, what's happened in the market since then and we are expecting the latest read on jobless claims you see the dow futures down by about 170 points. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box.

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well, may of 2000 was the last time before yesterday, that the fed hiked interest rates by 50 basis points in one shot. so what else was going on m that month, back in 2000, when, if

you recall, it was before this country really realized what a worst case scenario looked like. the next year, remember? i think we were all focussed on chandr cha chandra levy a stamp was 33 cents and the yankees were on their way to winning the world series a big mac cost $2.39, and aol's $182 billion purchase of time-warner had just been announced a few months earlier 22 years later, how are things different in the economy we're going to ask the carlisle group david rubenstein that's coming up next. then we're going to speak to former federal reserve ninomee, judy shelton you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

i would say i think we have a good chance to have a soft or softish handing or outcome if you will households and businesses are in very strong financial shape. you're looking at excess savings

on balance sheets, excess in the sense that they're substantially larger than the prior trend. the labor hark is very, very strong and so it doesn't seem to be anywhere close to a downturn >> that was fed chair jay powell announcing a half-point rate hike, the biggest in two decades. let's bring in david rubenstein, carlisle group's co-founder and co-chairman. it's good to see you at times like these when we're trying to figure things out. what do you think this morning we knew it was going to and 50-base-point hike >> it is ironic that the federal reserve increased interest rates by more than it had in two decades and the market is euphoric the market was afraid that the

fed might think flinflation was bigger problem than it is. but we to have to get back to the reality that we have a very high inflation rate, higher than we've had since the late 1970s we still have the war in ukraine and russia that we're dealing with and we still have an overall sense that the government of the united states is somewhat dysfunctional and can't get things done as quickly as it should i'm very pleased with what the fed did and think it made the right decision but we're looking at 50-point base increases in the next two meetings i don't think it's tightening so much that we're going to slow down the economy the central bank's main mission is to make sure that the currency of the country is stable and not inflated into oblivion we still have to recognize that we have real challenges, economic challenges in the united states. we're not going into recession anytime soon, but we do have

economic challenges. >> the last time we talked to you, you sounded, i think, a little more sanguine about the outlook of what was happening with inflation you pointed out this was nothing like what we saw in the 1970s, that we were dealing with inflation and the fed kind of had its arms around it it sounds to me that you are a little bit more concerned about inflation. we did hear from the bank of england. they increased their expectations to more than 10%. are you thinking the same thing? that maybe we could be dealing with much more inflation than we'd been anticipating >> yeah, the fed is off of its position that inflation wasn't transitory it's clearly more long lasting and deeper than we once had thought. it's not as bad as the 1970s when i was in the white house, w we had double-digit inflation. when you have inflation in the

system, it takes much longer to get rid of it than to get it into the system. i think the fed is doing a very calibrated job and the market was very pleased that the fed is not dogmatic in what it's doing, to have such high interest rates that it might kill off an economic growth pattern. i think the economic growth will be okay. it's not going to be staggering, but it's not going to be as good as last year inflation is a little bit more of a problem than i once thought it was, but not so much of a problem that i think it's going to give us heartburn in terms of recession or anything in the future >> i feel like it's jay powell's job at this point to kind of corral these investors that run one direction or the other they get really concerned that inflation's awful and he's not doing enough, or they come running from the other direction that he's doing too much this is just attention deficit disorder on the part of the

markets, and he's trying to corral things to say we are dealing with it. we will expect more rate hikes, but we're taking it in stride. i felt a little better after hearing that yesterday >> thefederal reserve historically didn't come out and have press conferences and couldn't and try to calm the markets. the fed did thing and the market later figured it out under ben bernanke went to press conferences or briefings, and now we have a more regular press conference format when the fed takes action jay powell has an advantage, and he speaks english. many times the fed chairs speak, you know, a different kind of language it's hard for people to discern, but because he's not a trained economist. he's a lawyer like i am. he's a person who can actually speak reasonably well in the king's english, and as a result of that, i think markets can be calm by what he says i think the market felt he did a

very good job sprainexplaining e was bptabout. the reality is we still have some inflation, and we still have economic growth keaconcerns but the war in ukraine is probably going to take a longer period to resolve than we once had thought the and the supply chain in energy and food is going to be impacted by that and inflation is going to be higher than we thought it would be when we first thought the war would go away in a couple weeks or so. >> the other day, david, we had paul tudor jones, he started out and people confused what he meant. he said that jay powell should, should, should not want that job. and it sounded like he was not doing a good job i don't think that's what paul tudor jones was saying he was saying the job so difficult right now he should look for another job because nobody sthould want it

the fed has so few tools to deal with inflation it's almost self-defeating my question to you is let's say the biden administration goes through with the student loan or other inflationary, what would be seen by the markets as inflationary policies, that would just hakmake it hard ir. are you confident that these two opposing forces can be rectified, and we can succeed here >> well, i think the congress of the united states feels that anything that's seen as inflationary is probably not going to support right now so the administration would have to take administrative action to get anything done. i think the congress is done for passing any major legislation before the midterm elections that's just off the table in my view, and congress is not going

to do anything of any consequence in that regard >> this is not the time to be an activist congress? >> there's a time and place for everything and i think right now the markets are concerned more about inflation than by economic growth and as a result, i think you're not going to see congress do anything there's not that much time for congress to do anything, but i think before the midterm elections i don't think any inflationary-type spending or things you would call inflationary would come out of congress it's just not realistic. >> i think about the things you've done with your fortune. they always seem to tieback to history, to america. you bought one of the only copies of the magna carta and gave it to the national archives you spent money to make sure the washington monument was repaired after it was damaged now there's a new story that you are looking at the washington nationals. at first i thought that's a little out of context, the sports team, but then i realized this is a huge piece of mayor

kau that and one that could use your help, they have something like $230 million in deferred compensation on the book, another 5 million in debt, they could definitely use your help are you eyeing the franchise >> it's interesting. of all the things i've tried to do in my business career or thr philanthropic career, i've never gotten as much attention than baseball let me just say that i was not a great baseball player. i thought i was going to be a major leaguer when i was 6 or 7 and realized when i was 8 or 9 it wasn't going to happen. i still have a love of baseball, i'll just leave it at that >> they could use your help, i think. fro >> yes, they could >> hey, david, wanted to ask you another issue in the headlines over the past call it three days a lot of business leaders seem to be privately chattering about it but not so much doing it on television or quite publicly,

which is what we've heard from the supreme court, or at least this draft opinion, and we now have a lot of companies who are getting e-mails from interest employees and the like you have businesses in virtually every state in the country, and i'm curious what the carlisle position is on this. >> i don't have any comment on th that it's just not something i'm prepared to talk about i do feel that the economy, which is really my main focus, is in reasonable shape and we shouldn't worry about a recession in the near term that's my main focus right now >> what do you tell the female employees that work for the various portfolio companies that you own? >> well, i haven't had any conversations with anybody about mig b anything but the economy the economy's what i've been fo focussed on. i haven't had any chance to comment on anything else in the near term.

>> we tants towant to thank your time and being with us it's good to see you again >> thank you coming up we'll talk about elon musk like up $7.2 billion to buy twitter what it could mean for the social platform after the break. and we've got a lot of news. judy shelton will be with us uber ceo on the battle for drivers. also nknow what black stein. "squawk box" coming right back with all of it they deliver real time data and business forecasts when you need it. i think it was fine how it was. (air tool sound) to help you stay ahead of the curve... or you could use workday. the finance, hr and planning system that helps cfos make better decisions faster. on the other hand, we had a great fourth quarter. for a accelerate your decision-making world. workday. for a changing world.

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welcome back to "squawk box," elon musk lining up 7. billion m funding commitments for his bid to buy twitter the filing containing investors who committed funds to help finance this acquisition including oracle's larry ellison as well as fidelity and sequoia capital. good morning we're looking at the price of twitter closing this terms of that aush rbitrage what do you think? >> i think it's been about

a hundred dollar overhang on tesla. i think the chance of the deal getting done, they called it 80% poor, now it's probably 90 to 95%. i think this is a positive showing that it's not just musk that's going to run it he's going to have other partners, and i think that's something that's very important for the street all around. a game of high-stakes poker, this is a great move >> the name of the list is binance, which is in the crypto world. what does that say, and i've talked about theiis on the program, the fact that he tries to use twitter and effectively create a fintech or payment platform >> i don't think that's coincidence. i think this is, you know, looking kind of two, three steps ahead. how are they going to ultimately change twitter the easy part for musk was

buying it. the hard part will be fixing it. you look at ellison, sequoia, binance and others it shows tea leaves, crystal ball in terms of some of the strategic ideas in terms of how twitter will be transformed. >> what do you make of the possibility, he's not on this list, but the prospect of him rolling in still exists, jack dorsey, of course. >> look, i think that would be a smart move to bring him in obviously, a big core dna of twitter. that would help internally, dorsey is someone the history of twitter having him more involved, i think it's a positive this all came down to musk gets twitter, and as we've talked about, ellison was always going to be the whisper in the ear him being nvolved, not surprised. but you look at some of these others, it's not just musk that's going to turn around

twitter. ultimately, i think a lot of the rolling up the sleeves is going to be some of these other partners and their teams that transform twitter. it's great all around. >> dan, how much have you, how much time have you spent really looking through this new law out of europe and what it means for american companies like a twitter to be able to pursue a more open or less-moderated approach to content. can effectively elon musk do what he says he wants to do and still comply with these laws? >> i think that's going to be the tightwire act, and ultimately sim filarly to what musk has done in china he's going to have to do in europe. from a content perspective, those are onerous, right in terms of some of the situation. he's definitely going to have to

do some hand holding, and that's why i think a bit of an uphill battle, clearly, but that's why he needs to bring partners on. can't do it himself. this was the missing piece in the puzzle is what we got today in terms of these partners >> dan, my understanding, though, is that they are all supposed to be passive players in this. so when you say that they're bringing these guys on as partners as opposed to investors who are just riding along, how do you see ha distinction in. >> i think it's a gray line. i mean passive technically, but i mean ultimately, they're going to be strjically involved in the business you're talking about a who's who that have been involved here, and i expect more that could ultimately come on and they're not just doing it to help their friend musk i mean, i think they look at twitter as a platform that can be transformed and that's why it comes down to musk bought it and it's about answering the phone calls to see

who else wants to get involved but they're putting in, call it $6 billion, $7 billion they're they're not just doing it for their health >> thanks for helping us when news like that breaks. we'll talk to judy shelton for her reaction to yesterday's fed meeting. when the central bank hikes rates for the first time that we've seen i i'm glad i don't read what's there, plus our interview with uber's ceo "squawk box" will be right back. . this is how it feels to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. this is what it's like to have a comprehensive wealth plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn.

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good morning, and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc, we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm here with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin dow's down by about 155 points

this morning after a gain of 930 points yesterday that huge relief rally that we saw when jay powell said that 75 basis points is not even being considered at this point it eased the market's concerns a little bit about rates getting raised so quickly that it crushes the economy. the nasz dak is off by about 106 points, it was up by 3%. and the s&p, which was up by about 2.9% yesterday is indicated off by about 26 points if you've opinionbeen watching treasury market, things have frozen you see the ten-year just about where it was yesterday we've got a power-packed final hour of the show for you today. dissecting the fed's rate hike and what it means for investor, america's biggest companies and your money in a couple minutes, we will be speaking with former federal reserve nominee, judy shelton.

and uber ceo dara khosrowshahi will be joining us >> first let's get to mike santoli. he's been tracking the action after yesterday's huge fed-sparked rally. how do you read this. >> i heard you talking about how to figure out why there was such a dramatic upside in stocks and a dovish response that filtered through bonds, just by take 75 basis points off the table where had the market been beforehand the s&p was up 125 points. in the last four days the range was 250 points rally took to where it was last thursday it show you the market is clenched up for more you she iee this in the s&p 500f

this is one tenth the level of the s&p 500, but it gives you the basic move this is ultimately what's been capping rallies in the 4600 range. a holot of people think the mart might have trouble getting above 4400 people are assuming it's bear market rallies maybe that helps for a while there's definitely more pessimism that we could feed off of as we spill back a little bit at the open right here toks and bonds down together has been a real struggle for a lot of investors take a look. it's 60-40 roughly equity and fixed income, it's global. and you see this steady downtrend. we've taken a piece of that back that is why investors are so skeptical right now. they're losing on both sides

semi conductors and the banks. this goes back two year. didn't really rescue the charts. as you can see they both kind of fell below where they had been about a year ago. and so that's not necessarily telling you that they're returning to leadership, but they did have pretty pronounced balances yesterday, and there's at least a chance that they can get back on the beam, becky. >> i think that was the perfect description, just this idea of the market being clenched up that's totally the situation what jay powell did was to talk the markets down and not send them too far in one direction or another, keep them on the straight and narrow path for discovery. we just had david rubenstein on and he made the point that jay powell is somebody who speaks plain english. >> without a doubt it also is very telling that jay powell as well as brainard

recently have recastfraiinflati as the populist issue and the thing that will most help main street if we can get it under control. and absent the comment powell made yesterday on taking 75 basis points off the table for now, i think you could have read everything else as net hawkish he still says the rlabor market is unhealthfully light so it really was just about the market he said can you set one of them aside for now. >> he started this whole thing not as a message to the markets. the market's listening, but he said this is a message to the american people. that probably matters, too thank you. the federal reserve's 50-basis point rate hike is the first time in 22 years that the central bank has taken such

action here's jay powell on what could be next. >> we need to really see that our expectation is being fulfilled. that inflation is under control and starting to come down. but, again, it's not like we would stop we would just go back to 25 basis point increases. it will be a judgment call when these meetings arrive. but our expectation is if we see what we expect to see, then we would have 50 basis point increases on the table at the next two meetings. >> joining us to talk about the market reaction, jude eye shelton, a senior fellow, author of "money meltdown." and how often do you get that fancy op ed in the wall street journal that's always front and n center do you have to write something really good for them to take it? or is it on some kind of sdmuld.

>> it's not on any type of schedule, and yes, you have to write something really good. i'm always highly interested when they want to put one of my views up >> ten is huge, 25 unheard of, and 50 is what we're saying. but whether n you're up in the d days, we used to do 50 basis points, but when you're up at 18%, 19%, whatever the volker number was, it doesn't seem quite as drastic was it drastic 50 is probably, it was seen as being dovish by the markets, or at least the outlook of no 75. >> well, if the fed were pursuing contractionary monetary policy, which is what you would do if you wanted to shrink the money supply in order to fight inflation, you have to raise the real rate of interest. so i think the market was

relieved that he wasn't talking about fulfilling the logic of that approach, because then, if inflation is at 7% or 8%, you're talking about putting interest at 9% or 10% you think of it now. if the fed went up to 5% but you still had inflation at 5%, that's a zero percent rate so i think there are people who have been saying, even ex-central bankers have been saying, actually everyone from larry summer to larry kudlow have been saying that if you want to get in front of inflation you have to move quickly and definitively, and you have to have a positive increase in the interest rate that exceeds the rate of inflation. >> i was thinking yesterday, watching the market reaction, that when i spoke to you today i would say, see, jude y, all you

hand wringing, all your worries about being behind the curve, look how great the market reacted. you must have been wrong about being so, the fed is behind the curve, or there's no price discovery, but all tayday long we've been talking about leaving the punch bowl always seems to excite the market, but it doesn't necessarily mean in the long term that it's the right thing to do. how do you view the market reaction yesterday >> well, i guess we're kind of turning these fed press conferences, following an fomc meeting into psychology sessions because jay powell was very comforting personally, i, i thought the opening message on behalf of the american people was not so fre great. i mean, if he had stood there and apologized and said it is

our job t, it is our mandate to give you stable prices, that's what we do on behalf of the american people, and i'm sorry, we failed in that, then i would consider that quite sincere, instead, to me it came across as sort of a we feel your pain, we're very committed, and here's what we're going to do, so long as developments occur that are in keeping with our expectations but what he didn't acknowledge is that their expectations have been drastically wrong, and that people are paying a high price for that now >> is it still possible to have a soft landing because there are extraneous things that could align in our favor, and whether it's because of brilliance by the fed or timely action or whatever, you could land this economy softly if inflation, if supply chain

issues ease, covid, get that under control in china take your pick of what e trainous factor that you want to use, but it still could, it still could have a favorable outcome, do you concede that, jud judy in. >> let's hope that happens let's hope that is definitely what happens, but you've had some people on today who talk about very strong consumer purchasing power and people coming back to stores and wanting to travel and spend money. we do see very low unemployment rate that does say to me we are going to see a spiral in wages, because you have companies competing to get those workers all the fed can really do to fight inflation is raise interest rates and i think the mistake is, is in looking at this as if the money supply problem. because the fed's been increasing the

money supply for years, and we didn't get inflation we we really got inflation from fiscal issues and the government putting money in the pockets of people who weren't contributing to increased supply. so now when they say they're raising the interest rate, what they're really doing is limiting access to capital. that is that it's going to become more expensive for people to be able to borrow, and these could beindividuals and companies that wanted to borrow precisely to increase output, to increase supply of goods and services, which is what would be helpful in fighting this kind of inflation, but, instead, i think the fed is going to risk that at the same time they're trying to kill demand, they're also killing supply so, in some ways raising interest rates is working against the idea of a pro-growth environment that would reduce the supply more commensurate

with the existing demand >> do you, we had david rubenstein on, and david, depending on circumstances, i think, is fairly friendly towards government programs and intervention, just throwknowing for years as i do. even david said now is not the time for student loan. i think biden will go ahead with that, president biden i should say, may go ahead with that. that would be inflationary at this point and self-defeating for what the fed is trying to accomplish as well as other versions of build back better 2.0. >> certainly and i agree. congress, and particularly certain certain members of the senate. fortunately we have joe manchin and kyrsten sinema

things that put money in the pockets of people and don't increase supply, things that only add to purchasing power in the sense that you go out and spend it, of course that's what's inflationary. that's the excess demand that powell referred to, i think that they are preventing congress from going too far in that direction, but that is not necessarily going to prevent the biden administration from give aways, including, if you cancel student debt, then all of the payments that people should have been making are now available. they can spend them on whatever else they want so that becomes additional purchasing power without the, accordingly, increase in supply. so that's inflationary you see that governor newsom in california's talking about sending checks $200 checks to a large group of people in

california again, it's just purchasing power that does lonothing to increase supply. and this is what concerns me even if the fed went to 10% and kept saying we're responsible for stable prices. if the government is finding ways to undermine that by adding to the money in people's pockets without increasing supply, then it completely negates what the fed's doing, which is also very damaging in its own way. and for what? for nothing. you could still have the inflation. >> so you, you, to warn about things like this, it is a goody i good idea. and do you really think this comes home to roost, judy, in your gut your gut feeling, does it tell

you that we're going to have to go much further in trying to step inflation. >> because volker said once it's out it's much harder, david mentioned that as well, it's much harder to get it under control. do you think we're going to have a problem in the next couple years that we're not anticipating right now or do you think it's going to be, you know, it's good to bring it up but probably not the worst case fair yoscenario l won't come to pass >> i think in the next couple years, maybe sooner, we're going to recognize the need for serious monetary reform. i think if you look at the logic of punishing growth, of trying to kill demand as your only tool to fight inflation and you're not really willing to do what it takes, that is the fed would be chasing inflation. let's say that we don't get that

soft landing and it's not because the fed isn't om niche yents, they aren't, no one ever could be, so i think we have to look at is there a way to move to a better monetary foundation instead of just, that is, you know, the last three republican platforms talked about the need for monetary commission, evaluate whether we're getting the best performance of the economy under the way the federal reserve operates i mean, we're seeing that they're not really providing the stable prices. at what point, let's say inflation doesn't go down for the next six months or a year. what would it take, what are the parameters of performance that would get people to say we have to be doing something different.

we can't have the stagflation of increasing inflation and dampening growth it's just not a good way >> right >> to provide the proper monetary foundation for the economy. >> very good judy shelton, thanks when can i expect to open the journal and see hat, next week soon it's probably a good time for you to write something, you think is this. >> probably a good time for me to write something >> okay jude y thanks coming up, we have our first interview uber ceo and we ask him how he sees the ride sharing service rebound after the pandemic and we check out where natural gas is trading it settled at its highest level in more than 13 years. stocks jumping, including for

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a couple of the big stories investors are going to be following this morning, the bank of england followed the fed in hiking interest rates. today's vote was 6-3 to raising rates from a quarter point and meta showing the pace of its hiring as it faces weakest revenue growth on record, and other business challenges. meta plans to stop or slow hiring for most mid-level and senior-level roles, this after holding off on adding entry-level engineers in recent weaks. the company regularly reevaluates its talent pipe lane opec plus has agreed to increase output by another 142,000

barrels barrels in june. all that relief at the pump consumers haven a been failing about to to be reversed. >> i would change that opec plus >> what about apple plus >> that's a good one >> walmart plus. or espn plus or disney plus how about disney plus >> oh, not disney plus >> oh, yes, i'm all there. when we come back, uber ceo will join us you're watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

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a little more than an hour till the opening bell on wall str street dominick chu joins us now. the fed raises rates and you disappear. >> what do you mean the fed, i was here yesterday >> we haven't seen you this morning. you got preempted. >> i was in the 5:00 hour. leis mania was part of the story

in a big way we're going to do the earnings headlines. when it come to the e-commerce side of things it's down decidedly. let's start with shares of shopify down 13%, after the provider of business e-commerce solutions is just kind of, i do don't know it was a big miss in terms of profit, compared to expectations a key metric of how much sales volumes flows through its platforms resulted in a more cautious outlook they said they would buy logistics firm deliverer for 2. million and the shopify fairs are down 13%. then wayfair, 180,000 shares of volume so far.

now 7.5% down side this is the online home furnishings retailer, bigger than expected loss even though revenues beat expectations the the number of active customer accounts dropped by 23%. so maybe the pandemic shopping trends are fading a little bit and we're going to end with a check on twitter, up 2% over 1.5 million shares, so very active this is off the extended hours high those gains are being helped of course after a regulatory filing showed elon musk detailed $7.2 billion in financing commitments for his proposed takeover of the social media company, including from oracle founder larry ellison. i'll send things over to you we got breaking jobless claims coming up and then live with the ceo of uber you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

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because happy customers are music to our ears. genesys, we're behind every customer smile. welcome back to "squawk box," rick santelli here with live breaking news initial jobless claims expected

to be in the neighborhood of 180,000 to 200,000 last week's 180 now becomes 181,000. we move lower. another post-covid low this is the lowest level since 1970 if we get under 1.35 million, then we would be in territory of 1969 so back to 1970. and productivity, first quarter preliminary, and this is a shocker, folks minus 7.5% that is a huge drop, a huge drop in productivity. and labor costs soaring. 11.6%. that is the highest level since the first quarter of 2014 on unit labor costs so these are not good numbers. allan green span once said if

you're looking for the silver bullet in the u.s. economy, it would be productivity. this doesn't look shiny and not much like silver to me becky, back to you >> rick, thanks so much. steve liesman joins us with more on this. and steve, rick hit the points that are really the high water points productivity down 7.5%, and what about the higher labor cost, up more than 11%. >> i'm going to take a step back and relax on these numbers i'm going to call it covid-ductivity. if you put up the quarterly change this productivity, can you see that, as you look at the left hand part of your chart before we had the pandemic, what you'll see is that it's pretty stable doesn't go up, doesn't go down a

lot. then you look at it now. its if it goes up and down like this people go into the workforce, people leave the workforce look at that volatility you've had there. somewhere, if you draw a line between those peaks and valleys, there's a new average that comes out maybe a little higher on productivity because of some of the innovations from covid and people working at home but right now it's hard to discern. you had businesses adding workers in what ended up being a negative quarter for growth, adding like the economy was booming. a million and a half people so far this year. you haven't put those people to work yet plus you lost a lot of low-wage income jobs, lower productivity jobs, those people are coming back we have to wrap it up. we'll come back over teime and watch this number.

this is not the time to be concerned about it, i would suggest. meantime, we're going to talk a little uber right now ride handler uber has more people taking rides. but uber reported a loss of $5.9 b 5.9 billion. it moved up its earnings results after the lackluster results of lyft it's great to see you. a day after these earning, which had been bumped up i'll le i'll leave it to you, you bump them up why? >> we saw unprecedented volatility in the market as whole. you talked about the lyft lackluster results we didn't want to leave our

investors out there for a full day wondering what's going to happen we ready to go an all-time high for us. ebita profitability of 168 million, well above street estimates, and then our indication for next quarter of ebita continuing to increase 240 to 270 again indicates the kind of strength we have coming out of this pandemic we want to get the facts out there as quickly as possible for the market place and for our customers. >> what about lyft continuing to spend on incentives. you said you're not going to be doing the same but why you don't feel the pressure, because i would imagine if they're going to be spending on incentives, there could be drivers who want to

make a switch. >> i think andrew, what you're talking about are two completely different entities we benefit from the benefits of scale, globalization, diversification and from discipline if you talk p scale, uber is the number one player in the market place. an earner who wants to come back, they're going to come to uber first, and when they come to uber, they're super busy, so whereas they may have tried out lyft or some of the other competitors, they are very very, busy on the uber moplatform, an that's benefit of being the thum number one player. the u.s. has trailed that of other countries in terms of reopening. so we have been adding earners and drivers to the platform for the past year. we have built those muscles, and also we've leaned into some

countries outside, and as a result of the global diversification and the skill set that we've formed doesn't make us overly dependent on one country, the u.s. or coast, the west coast is opening up a bit slower than the rest of the country. so globalization has really helped us out. diversification has helped us out. not only do we help you go someplace where we help you get anything earners can sign up for uber to earn dlelivering food, iphones r moving people and were able to bring a number of couriers onto the platform and upsell them into driving it's a unique differentiator that we have m tin terms of the platform and last but not least, it's about discipline i've been around the block the days of investing and hoping for the best are over. we are investing, but we are

bringing profits forward re quickly. we've indicated that we're going to be free cash flow positive this year, and as can you see from the results this last quarter and indications for kninext quarter, we're delivering. we're a completely different animal than lyft to compare us is like comparing apples and oranges >> what's your expectations longer term about pricing in because we have seen indication in the pricing part of that a lot of people thought was a function of covid and how few drivers there were but today, as you have many more drivers on the platform, wherever i seem to go, the prices are still quite elevated. how much of that is sustainable? is that something you want is it something you don't want >> we don't want necessarily high price, and i think our prices are indicative of inflation in general not only is it broad inflation in the market place but in terms of car prices, gas prices, et

cetera, that's hurting everyone's pocket books but hurting our earners' earnings so to speak prices are elevated at ranges that we don't want because it hits, you know, everyone's pocket books one way or the other, whether prices are high or low, for us, it it's about the secular penetration. those continue to grow at very, very significant rates growth in terms of trip volume and gross bookings pace from q1. so for us all signs are actually quite positive >> when you talk to investors, and i hate to raise, but if you look at the stock price over time, it's obviously down. when you talk to investors, what do you think the single thing is you need to do to get that stock price up again

>> i think we need to deliver. the stock price is, listen, it's frustrating for me and for investors who have made bets on us, we as a management team have not only delivered on every single promise that we've made but exceeded those promises as well we've put a marker out there for 2024 we expect to meet or exceed that target and based on our track record, i think betting with us in terms of results has proven that that is a good bet. we absolutely believe it's going to translate in to the stock price. but we all hold a lot of stock we're frustrated we're heads down, we are accelerating profitability at this company you look at our guidance for q 2. it is above what street estimates are. we have many, many avenues the markets want to see free cash flow, and we're going to

deliver, and whethen we do, we think investors will be rewarded >> every consumer has concerns about this when we're at the gas pump now this morning gas, or oil prices are back up at $110, maybe a hill norlittle north oft you guys introduced that surcharge, i wonder, did the drivers think it's enough to compensate them? candidate did the consumers think it's little enough that it didn't bother them? >> it hasn't affected consumer sentiment one way or the other, and you can see that by the volumes growing, bookings 39%. that's a very, very healthy business if you compare it to almost any public company that's reported, it's well above it in terms of scale. so the consumers accepting it, it's reflective of prices that

consumers see avenue where everywhere. we designed it so it would account for 70% of the increase in gas prices. we think that's a fair load for us to offer our earners, but i can't say they're happy. no one is happy about these prices, and we're hoping that inflation calms down in the back half of the year especially as it relates to gas prices earners are getting out there. earnings themselves are elevated the drivers who drive more than 20 hours on our platform, in terms of their earnings per hour, they're earning $39 an hour flexibly. we are seeing earners come onto the platform to deliver food, shop or drive, and the flow that we're seeing in terms of drivers on our platform is quite positive we obviously want it to be more profitable and gas prices to even out

>> dara, just on food, food delivery, you're obviously competing with doordash. and people are back in the world again. what do you think that looks like longer term and what do you think that margin looks like on that business longer term >> so food, our food business on a constant currency basis grew 15%. profitability, the business is profitable now profitability improved by over 200 million in terms of ebita. long term people want delivery to their home. it's about food next hour, grocery next hour, sometimes next half hour if you're apple iphone in the next couple hours. the secular weight of people want being the convenience of on-demand drelivery of all thing is absolutely there. so we see very, very strong growth rates in terms of food, grocery and other things

and you're seeing with our uber eats business t, it is profitabe and we expect 5% increases in those margins. in our advertising business, margins are very high, it allows restaurants, brands to display themselves for consumers who want their goods right now that business has tripled on a year-on-year basis, and i think it's going to add significantly to our profitability going forward. >> and finally, it's a complicated one, we tried to talk to david rubenstein about it earlier this draft roe v. wade decision has a lot of people talking inside the business world, but often times silent publicly. what's going on inside uber in terms of that conversation is there something you'd say publicly about it? >> it's a conversation that's going on now these are deeply personal

subjects i personally brieelieve in a woman's right to choose, but i respect there are a lot of people who don't we are thinking about our employees. we want to give employees the ability to choose, help them out, travel, expenses, et cetera, if they want to do so. and with drivers in states where there might and driver who happens to drop off a passenger at an abortion clinic, if they suffer from a legal suit we want to help them out right now personal beliefs are whatever they are. we want to make sure we take care of our employees and stand by earners >> we appreciate you being with us today thank you so very much >> thanks for having me. joe skbtay tuned, "squawk box" will be right back

let's get down to the new york stock exchange, jim cramer joins us now when i come back, if i ever come back, i'd want to be a rock star probl probably an aa rock star. i wouldn't want to do all the other stuff. >> that's an interesting proposition. that may be right. i'd want to to it with van morrison he's always angry. the audience, sometimes you can say i don't like you guys and leave. >> remember miles used to play the other way, although he was the greatest >> turned out to be that were you supposed to be watching coltrane, who knew >> where i'm going with this is i want to come back as a technical analyst, because you don't have to figure anything out. you have to look at what's going

on, and katie stockton said from what she sees we're not out of the woods yet. we don't have any value on the fed, right or wrong. she thinks there's more work to do are we out of the woods after yesterday? >> i tonight think necessarily out of the woods, but you saw some cliches the reason i say that is because we are seeing one by one these little bits of inflation go down i mean, i wanted to say last night, i was watching, 5:00 show, palm oil has come to down. big deal that's what killed colgate palm oil was important you check that box and say it's not that bad kellogg, i thought they'd be hurt not that bad check that clorox, i thought they'd be hurt by chlorine. not going up as much each time you deal with the individual companies it's not as bad. it's gotten better than it was three months ago that doesn't mean it's better than it was a year ago, but it's in the right direction.

>> you mentioned that we haven't had the sentiment turn enough. but how surprised were people that it was bought yesterday in a big way? oh, my god people are buying dips maybe sentiment has turned and people are pretty negative >> i'll tell you, when you look at -- every stock that does well, the price targets are cut because stocks are up so high. the market has been annihilated. i don't know why anyone would think -- it's been crushed the robinhood people, i don't know, i mean, bye. there's been so much carnage yet people still think the market is hanging in you and i, joe, we know when a 3m has gone from $200 to $140, that's a big deal. i have ten 3ms i could name right now. most of the nasdaq stocks that don't make money are crushed

immediately. i think there's been so much damage that i think that we'd be surprised if we get two more federate hikes and the market goes up. >> thanks, jim we'll see you in about eight minutes. the new cnbc investing club. point your phone at the code on your screen. gn will take you there to si up "squawk box" will be right back.

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as you probably know to, elon musk has secured $7.41 billion in funding to take twitter private. that cuts his own margin loan to $6.25 billion from $12.5 billion. a lot of big names, larry ellison, baron asset management. we've been hearing from ron baron this morning asking why he's doing this. ron says he has done initial diligence, two days' worth, of course never complete. obviously interesting plan twimter is a private company, as sketched, very interesting my guess he says two to three times return next four to five years if successful. the purchase price is cheap

since the business has been so poorly run, incredibly cheap and would have remained that way if musk had not offered to acquire. in the meantime, investors who were happy that the fed consumer sentiment the door closed on the 65-point basis points rate hikes powered to its best day in more than two years. noah black steen is senior portfolio manager at dynamic funds. are you surprised by the fed or was this your expectation ahead of hearing powell saying 75 basis points not on the table right now? >> there's been so much rhetoric since the last meeting, intermeeting from fed governors coming out, some former fed governors talking about bringing down the stock market with tightened financial conditions the market got carried away 75 basis points that still means we're starting qt and have at least two 50-point hikes coming.

looking at the overall market, you've had an enormous move in treasury yields more to date and mortgage rates, almost 70% year to date. it doesn't happen on a quote machine on your desk, tick by tick, second by second, but there's no way mortgage rates won't have an impact real estate has a much longer life in stocks fed has to be careful. there's a lot of tightening that's occurred especially given how far mortgage rates moved in the relative asset game, mortgages and housing has a much larger and significant impact on the overall economy. dialing it back a little bit is not unwarranted, and being a little more data dependent is not unwarranted at all. >> have you been a buyer with the market we've moved pretty significantly over the last several days 900-plus points yesterday, third day in a row of gains to the markets but it got us back to last thursday as rick santelli

pointed out. have you been a buyer on the dips in the last several weeks >> look, i'm a growth so it's been a tough market since november as soon as the macro took over, growth stocks have been pummeled here the s&p 500 is still about 7% off of where it was on the march highs when the 75 basis point talks went around and former governors were talking about bringing down the stock market i think we can rally back to there for sure depends if, you know, if that brings up another governor to talk the market down i think overall, though, you know, we're seeing two mad jobs reports and we're just beginning to see cie the effects of some of these rates moving through the economy. growth stocks today, on a relative valuation multiple they're at some of the lowest levels since they've been since 1980 it's an area i focus on. i hear the analogies of nasdaq 2000 from some bears out there

i get the emails making that analogy. i was running the same fund i'm running now back then and many of the people emailing me were in grade six at the time so, you know, facebook is almost at the same p multiple as altria, formerly philip morris that wasn't the case in the year 2000 our analogies on how bad the market has been or 2008, worst nasdaq start since 2001, worst month for the s&p since the pandemic and sentiment is awful and terrible there are a lot of catalysts for a move higher for sure and we've -- typically when we've passed peak inflation, it's been good for the markets march was probably peak inflation. the question is how low does it go >> noah, great to see you. thank you for your time. a quick check on the markets. there are some red arrows, dow

futures down by about 175 points, but again that comes after a gain of 930 yesterday. s&p futures off by 31, the nasdaq off by 131, and tell me if i'm correct, tomorrow is the jobs report, right can you believe it's that time of the month already >> no way. >> yes way >> there it is >> cinco de mayo get ready. >> don't forget that >> that does it for us today we'll see you back tomorrow. it's time for "squawk on the street." good thursday morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm david faber with jim cramer. carl has the morning off let's look at futures getting ready for the market open 30 minutes from now a bit of a reversal certainly from that very strong day yesterday. that's kind of where our roadmap starts, of course, with that fed-fueled rally and where stocks are going to go from here as you saw, of course, looks like we are going to be down at least at the