the most expensive, most crowded stocks and that is why the more money is to come out of them than any others so i don't know that we've hit rock bottom jobs number, if we get clear of it, there is no inflation scare, who knows. if we could get some relief. >> yet another thing to watch. appreciate it. that is mike santoli i'll see you tomorrow. "fast money" is now. right now on "fast," a stunning reversal of fortune from a fed fueled rally to a rate surge sell-off, the nasdaq getting just hammered today. suffering the biggest one-day fall since june of 2020. tonight we're going to go inside the numbers and the markets and ask where do we go from here and plus from techs pain to oil gain, crude is climbing and some think much higher. we'll speak with a top energy analyst to help us navigate the kmo kmodid complex and we'll ask our traders to

give us one name at right price that could be a buy. good evening or good afternoon, i'm brian sullivan in for melissa tonight. this is "fast money" and on your desk, tim, karen, bonawyn and guy. let's begin with the sell-off on the street the major average doing an about face the s&p 500 dropping 3.5%. dow down more than 1,000 points. and once again big tech taking the biggest hit. the nasdaq tanking 5% closing at the lowest level since november of 2020. effectively, wiping out the year and a half of gains for all you investors out there. the big names you know, getting hammered, amazon down 7.5% apple 5.5% google under 5% and microsoft do you know about 4%. that is hundreds of billion dollars wiped out. but it wasn't just them. way fair losing one fourth of

its value today. etsy down 17%, e-bay 13% and netflix and tesla down 7% and 8% remember how much we've talked about how important tesla is to the market because of all of options and derivatives tied to its equity now all of this happening as rates roared higher. the ten-year yield above 3% and now most mortgages are above 5.2% that is what happened today. question now is where do we go from here. and last night, the traders on the desk were not buying the rally. but let's talk about today guy, there is a lot of blame going around n. your mind, is there one reason why we're seeing today's big swing >> well, think people come to the conclusion and realize is that the fed is no longer underwriting the market number one. the unwind of the balance sheet

will not be particularly pleasant and it is figuring out what the right multiple. and we haven't run from this we've been steadfast a 17 multiple in this environment for the s&p is not unreasonable $220 worth of earnings is not unreasonable and that gets into the 3750 level that i've been putting out there for a while. i think we get there i don't think that is catastrophic i think that is extraordinarily constructive but i think getting there is somewhat painful. >> 3750 so you look at maybe another 400 points off the top tim, are you as negative bearish as guy is. >> i would tend to look at it, the 220 to 230 and i think we're probably consensus is around 225 hasn't come down what has come down is what we're willing to pay for stocks. i don't think you've seen eps has gone higher as the years have warn on the first quarter has been fine. we have the numbers on 80% of the s&p at this point. and they've beat

but that has me concerned. i think as a look at today, it wasn't about technology. yes, nasdaq again underperforms the s&p but look at consumer discretionary down almost 7% look at auto parts down close to 8% and then couple that with some of the things that we saw on the macro. we got labor productivity which was the worst we've seen in i think 47 years or something. i think it was since 1947. but then the labor costs that are buried within the numbers, up 7.5%. mark zandi will talk about the payroll and the labor numbers there. but i think you have a couple of things going on. i think it is the consumer at some point catches up to the fed and let's not forget what happened with rates today. an enormous day for the ten-year at one point up 18 basis points before pulling back a bit. but tough day on rates. >> and karen let's follow up on what tim is saying if you dig inside of the market, let the market tell the story, consumer discretionary was the hardest hit. and we know the economic data

around the consumer has been strong the problem is it's backward looking. is the market today, and this year saying to you that second half of this year and early next year the consumer is going to take a hit and company earnings are going to take a hit? >> do you think the market is saying that. i don't know if the market is saying that louder than what will actually be the case. but the more the market said it, the worst that is for consumer sentiment, even if balance sheets are fine for the consumer to the extent that the consumer has money invested in the stock market, that any agood thing but what i thought was interesting today, even though the amount of the move versus yesterday was similar range, this just felt very, very different. it was just absolutely across the board. there was nowhere to hide. and nowhere to hide. and so that was interesting. i'm surprised the vix didn't get higher because it started to see it feel panicky to me.

so when i look and see things trading down integers at a time. people just want out at any price and as painful as that is for me, for my portfolio, i think it does set us up well, is this the bottom, who knows you never know until after but things are a lot more attractive today than yesterday. what happened to change it i don't know but we all yesterday thought that rally was misguided. >> i wonder, bonawyn, are they more attractive today. i understand you want to buy low and sell high and that would apply that valuations remain the same but if earnings come down faster than the market, then is the market sort of, quote, on sale do prices look reasonable to you now given we don't know what earnings are going to come down in the next few quarters. >> reasonable. that is a key word and that is a tough one. >> it is a cop out word. >> i copped out.

i definitely think things look better on a relative basis on an absolute basis, i don't have a crystal ball. i still tend to think that the trend is down and to the right we're going to have violent rallies and the vix is telling you as much and you mentioned corporate earnings, guy and tim and karen, and i think it is a combination of multiple compression and earnings revisions. so those are two levers that you have there that lead us lower top in inflation and then the uncertainty around the consumer. we've looked back and you said backward looking, that is what it is. they've held up well through covid, with the government that was infusing the market with liquidity, infusing the consumer with liquidity, and all of that is being taken away as rates are being ratcheted up i don't think that stacked up well. >> ray dalio put out a piece about bubbles and he wasn't saying this is a big bubble, he was compareling it 20s and 1970s

and he said a bubble has a high prices relative to traditional measures of value and unsus sinable conditions, the fed, and many buyers an broad bullish sentiment and a lot of purchases being financed by debt that last point, don't want to speculate. but did it feel like to you on the street of dreams, big firms might have gotten blown up a bit. margin calls forced selling to raise money? >> specifically today, it didn't feel that way to me. i'm sure it did happen but we've seen it all along. it happened, it happened in the nickel market. we've littered with situations that speak to exactly that and maybe we'll find out that some people are -- some institutions are getting blown out. that is toward the end and not the beginning. and i think we're on the precipice. and i think karen is spot on if you want to take a silver lining, maybe the fact that the

vix didn't go up more than it did and quite frankly today i thought the vix would be north of 35 easily and it wasn't maybe people are positioned for this and that is why you see a penning. but again it does come down to earnings, what you're willing to pay for them and in a higher rate environment and the one thing that i took from today, the fact that you didn't see a relief rally or a flight to quality in the form of bond market, is troubling and i'll say it again, bond market is flat out broke, you could out me on twitter but it is broken all orn the entire curve 10-year yields should not move 15 basis points in the course of a few hours. it just shouldn't happen. >> and it feels like, tim, that there was a bit of a liquidity issue in the bond market or has been it is not a monetary, it is a liquidity issue. so we're getting big swings in bonds, which do you think that is similar to why we're getting these -- by the way, both to the upside and to the downside

1,000 point moves are a sign of maybe a broken market all around >> well, the mortgage rates at 5.27% and where we're seeing credit markets, they're getting worst. so they're at 2009 levels and if you think about affordability in the housing market, the fed probably loves this. they don't love lack of affordability but they like to slow down the housing market that they are -- that the number one reason why it was goosed higher when i look at credit spreads, we talk about it all of the time we're not saying there is a major credit surge here and there is a credit crunch per se, but look at high yield which started the year in the low 3s and now at 410 look at corporate credit these are big moves on a small term basis they're not in the big picture of where things would get ugly but i think credit is a concern. you talk about at long end of the u.s. treasury curve, fed has no control over that they're controlling the short end. the dynamics in terms of the

runoff and the balance sheet dynamics they talked about yesterday, you have to get other buyers in there other than the federal reserve. the japanese have stopped buying and i think it is a problem. >> it feels like the bond market has broken loose from the dock and doing its own thing. and bonawyn, you have these leveraged etfs, two times up this and two times down this, using leverage, using debt, using margin, whatever it is, do you think that these are -- and not plaming one part of the market but are they contributing to some of the volatility that we're seeing >> oh, without a doubt they're contributing to the volatility i think they're also contributing to capital erosion. we talk about where do we see flight to. were names like dust and sqq and q and yang and soxs. these are all inverse etfs and i haven't been around that long. around 20 years.

i know it is probably 40 for you. but i've been around long enough to remember xiv and that used to make money hand over fist. short the vix and these things were highly profit ability and lever up your portfolio and you see that precipitously so i would caution the retail investor to proceed with caution or steer clear all together when it comes to the levered etfs you have days like today when you get a pop in volatility, a rush to the downside but over the long-term these things tend to be dish. >> it is incredibly good advice, people coming into the market when the pandemic hit. and stimulus check and the market goes up, up, and people are learning some very painful lessons in the last couple of months here that probably nobody expected all right. so where are we going? well your next guest warns the market may not still have priced in the economic slowdown that

could come, that could mean more days like this one mark zandi is from moody's analytics and you're kind of a consumer specialist. you heard us talking about the consumer what the stock market is saying. is that the consumer may be in trouble. do you agree with that >> no. not in trouble b brian, the fundamentals are good. >> now but the discounting mechanism for the future >> you're right. they may be having slower consumer spending growth and the consumer has been on a tear, and powering economic growth and we do need to see the economy's growth rate slow and that is the federal reserve's objective here and the key channel through which that happens is through consumer spending so we need to see growth slow or the markets will -- i don't think they're discounting the consumer pulling back because that would marine recession. i don't think that is what the

markets are saying at least not yet. >> do you see a recession in the next 12 to 18 months, because if you do, even a small one, we need to technically, but that was weird because of government spending and stuff, if we have one in the next 12 to 18 months, is the stock market then acting rationally >> i think the economy will avoid recession. i think it will be a close call. i think probability is high over the next 12 to 24 months with inflation as high as it is in this very difficult environment. you have two major supply shocks out there hurting global economy, the pandemic an the russian invasion so recession risks are awfully high here. but think we'll be able to navigate through i don't they the stock market is saying recession i don't think that is what it is saying it is saying, hey, look, interest rates going up, we have to adjust to that and we need a slower growing economy and by the way profit margins, which

have been extraordinarily high, if you go back and look at the data, margins are as hig they've ever been in the data back to world war 2, it is hard to imagine that they'll continue to move higher so you add that all up, stock prices have to go lower. but it is not adding up to a recession. not at this point in time. >> mark, it is tim we got some labor numbered today and productivity down and that is covid related but the labor costs are the problems here i think and i would love to get your view as we get into a big payroll number tomorrow. what would be the best number for the markets so put your "fast money" trader on but tell me about the tightness in the labor market and that component of inflation that is putting pressure on the fed? >> yeah i think the best number tomorrow would be something like around 350,000 jobs created during the month because that would show that the growth rate in the labor market is starting to slow. because we've been at 500 k per month on average for more than a year and that is obviously really fast. unemployment has been coming in

rapidly and it is already low. so we need to see a step down in growth and that would help calm the nerves in the bond market. you talked about bond yields and it is a bad day in the bond market so this might take a little bit of concern out of bond investors. so to some step down in growth would be encouraging if we got a hot number, something north of 500 k, i think that would be a problem. something south of 350 k, i think the market would say that is probably measurement issue, seasonables which are going to effect the numbers so around 350 k, i think that would be just -- the markets would enjoy that and find that very productive. >> that would be the goldilocks scenario and this is a fed that is threading a needle economically mark zandi, we could agree on that have a great day karen, not to get wonky and weird, but at the end of the day a stock price is the measure of the cash available after operating expenses and debt service. and then you sort of divvy that

up and give it amongst the shareholders i think mark made a good point if you think earnings have peaked, what else is there to look forward to? and i think maybe the market is telling us that story. >> i guess, although i think all stocks are not the same, right so i think there are some where earnings have peaked and i certainly think the ones who are pandemic beneficiaries, those earnings may have peak and they have been thrown out with the bath water and even if the companies don't grow earnings that the valuation and the generation of cash flow will just make it too attractive. something like a cvs, companies like that. that are kind of boring, not sexy, weren't high fliers at any point but just deliver and so i think that those sort of you know, pedestrian kind of names are a good place to hide. >> karen, thank you very much. we're going to hear much more

from everybody coming up after the short break. and there will be a special report of today's sell-off tonight at 8:00 p.m. eastern it is markets in turmoil here on cnbc and i'll be with you here at 8:00 p.m. more on the fallout from today's brutal sell-off. and the dow down more than 1,000 points but oil held up pretty well today. considering. we'll going to dig into the energy space and see why it is bucking the trend and where it is going to hit. oh, by the way, earnings breaking as well shares of shake shack and block on the move after reporting their numbers. we'll bring them to you and the stock reaction when "fast money" n'yoda ganhet after this dot u reo ywre at do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech.

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welcome back to "fast money," everybody. we have an earnings alert on shake shack shares heading higher in the after market as the burger and chicken chain continues to lose money. gown to kate rogers with more on the numbers app the call >> well as you mentioned, it a mixed quarter for shack and that stock has been bouncing around after hours. loss per share of 19 cents, that is 3 cents besser than the lost of 22 cents analysts were

expecting. revenues at $223 million for the quarter ahead of the $206 million projected same store sales lower than anticipated at up 10.3% in the quarter. guidance also a bit lighter than expected for q2. shack is down about 40% and closed lower by about 6% and on the call the ceo noted there was meaningful momentum in march and april after omicron headwinds in the beginning of the year and said that can bes urban shake shacks grew 19% with same store sales over last year the company said it took price in march and said it is about 6% to 7% higher in terps of menu prices over last year but that does not include delivery prem yums which we know are getting more expensive back over to you. >> thank you very much let's trade shake shack. to you, tim. kate mention the down 60% in four months an the stock has lost half of the value from the pandemic high but you wonder about a name like this and think

is the market repricing stocks like this to just where they were before the pandemic and kind of go back to the way that we were when all you could do was order fast food? >> but it is not the same company and think there is a sigh of relief in terms of the reopening element. this is a reopening trade. and so we should be looking at new york city and the urban centers where shake shack not only has their strong hold but where they have the pricing power that randy who was a friend of the show and has talked about this business for years. they are continuing to grow and continuing to have higher margin and more pricing power but i'm very concerned about the labor costs and input costs and think they're going to be the ones where that kind of guidance for next couple of quarters are the different makers stocks down 49% over a year. you've started to put in possibly a bit of a bottom here. although i think today was more of a relief than a chance to say it is game back on. >> guy, your take on the shack

>> listen, restaurant margins came in almost 230 basis points better despite the fact that some of the costs were up almost 3 300 basis points so good for them running their businesses more efficiently. i guess bad for them on the margins missing same store sales. not a big deal, just a small miss there and it comes down to valuation and to your earlier point, brian, are things getting back to where they were pre-pandemic. i don't think that thing does and i mean shake shake i think it was $40 pre-pandemic and i do think it trades into the high 40s, low 50s and stay on the side lines until then, it was a $128 stock a year ago. and block out after the bell today. stock jumps after hours despite reporting a miss on the top and bottom lines that earnings call getting underway moments ago kate rooney is here to break

down those results kate >> brian, well the call is telling us a lot the stock just popped after block cfo gave some updated numbers for april. she said the cash app is accelerating and there was 15% growth in april, also seeing double-digit growth for the square seller business and overall payments volume. so some good numbers for april it looks like the stock is up 10%. and the cash, that is the consumer and payments banking app for block, it is usually the higher growth area during the pandemic but in q1 the seller business grew faster with gross profit jumping 41% versus 46%. i talked to the cfo after the numbers came out and i asked her about inflation that is a big question for a lot of payments companies and if it is weighing on the consumer. she said block has seen strong growth across both discretionary and nondiscretionary spending. on the call she said they're not seeing a deterioration in

overall consumer spending. so different from what paypal said last week they will continue to watch the broader macro environment. for the cash app, you talked about the cash card being some of the fastest growing areas and teens also adding to some of the growth jack dorsey talking about bitcoin. the block revenue miss was in part because of lower bitcoin trading volume but gross profit is about 3% of that total is not a more profitable side of the business but one that jack dorsey talks about a lot on the earnings calls back to you. >> thank you very much. bonawyn, what a weird, i mean block accentuate this is market it fell 10% today. it is up 10% after hours so it is kind of a bizarre move. but does block matter to the macro markets or is it its own thing? >> i think it matters. it is exposure to the sme segment. you have the exposure to the reopening play but if we start to see cracks, you are exposed

to that middle or lower level market so you kind of have to weigh that with both hands i do think the market is a bit bullish on the after pay acquisition and looking for a bit there. i do remember when when everything that was roughly correlated to the cloud or block chain or de fi, multiples were expanding at a rapid rate. it is -- you juxtapose that now where that is behind us. but part of that is timing they have not made the full transition to have the bottom line contributed from block chain related or coin -- or sorry coin related transactions. and because of that, i think that the pullback we've seen in those spaces hasn't effected it the way it has effected some of its peers. >> thank you very much on deck, it was not all bad today. a lot of the energy names were in the green but not all oil and gas stocks are created equal. we have names in the market. and also another name saying

what sell-off? was albemarle the oil of the electric car movement. we'll get trades on both coming up when "fast money" returns (all): all hail, caesar! pssst julius! you should really check in with your team on ringcentral. oh hi caesar. we were just talking about you. yeah, you should probably get out of here. ♪ ringcentral ♪

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indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. welcome back to "fast money. if you are just catching up on the markets today, it was another rough one. the dow down more than 1,000 points the s&p 500 losing 3.5%. but big tech taking it even harder and nasdaq down 5% now hitting the lowest level since november of 2020 well the energy etf, the biggest one, the xle did fall today but it was up earlier in the session and it is the only green s&p sector year-to-date.

now many energy names breaking new records this week. commodities as well. look at natural gas. it is more than doubled this year diesel prices soaring to new highs. if you could find diesel here in the northeast. and lots of names also recently hitting new highs like devon energy, phillips 66 and exxon-mobil. let's talk about it all and bring in michael bradley from energy market strategy, to talk, mike, it is great to have you on listen, before we get into the the individual stock names i wan to talk about oil. it was over 110 today. and it ended lower but it was $111 and change earlier today even with the coming release, the 160 million barrels from the strategic petroleum reserve and the senate moving one step closer today to allowing the president to sue opec for market manipulation it all seems like it is adding up to a higher oil price over time what do you think? >> yeah, brian, i mean, look, it

is all about supply and demand and right now we just don't have the supply if you look at opec. >> opec is basically maxed out we only have a couple million barrels of spare capacity. how far does demand or price have to go up to hit demand and we don't know what that is yet we talk about 125, 150, some people up there at $175. we don't know. demand will have to be hit it will have to get hit and see where price goes that is what it going to determine. there is no reason it can't go higher because, guess what, we're heading into summer and that is a stronger period than we've been in the last couple of quarters. >> and the question that everybody has been asking, mike and you've been doing this a long time, my man, where does that demand destruction kick in. i was in california yesterday morning, $6.50 a gallon, and that was pretty much every station in l.a. but there were lines. there with people pulling in to fill up because they have to

is there a price point where demand kicks in. we were higher in '08, inflation adjusted. >> we haven't seen it yet. it is not $100 is it 125 or 150, we don't know. we'll find out in a fairly quick fashion. we're going into a seasonal, china is off right now and when they do come back on we'll have strong zdemand and not supply so we'll find out pretty quickly. >> hey, michael, it is karen finerman thanks for being on. how do you think the china slowdown fits into the equation and would they be buying itfro russia at a steep discount how do you think this plays out? >> well like i said, it is going to be where we're going on a seasonably strong period and the fed is raising rates and not doing anything at this point in time. but what i said beforehand, in previous periods we have supply

dictating what supply did. and the u.s. doesn't have a lot of production to bring to market and opec is not there. and i see demand getting better over the next couple of quarters so we're going to see prices heading higher. >> and any names you like more than others right here, mike >>go ahead >> any names that you like here. not all oil and gas producers are built the same some are hedges, some are not hedged and any gas names that you like more than others here >> yeah, we've been saying since the beginning of the year, we like oil services because activity is going to be improving. pricing is improving and earnings will go up dramatically so you pick names like haliburton, liberty and helmer and payne. and the larger cap names and we continue to like devon and diamondback and pioneer and conico but go with the names that are delivering the most return of

capital. most of the companies are delivering between 10% and 15% return of capital and some of the firms over the next three or four years will buy back 40% to 50% of the market cap. so it doesn't matter those are the names that we like and on the refinance side, we like phillips 66 as well. >> so go ofs, oil field services mike bradley, congrats on the new firm thanks for joining us. appreciate it. tim, so he's saying oil field services and guy has talked about schlumberger in the past your take. >> i thought you said tim. i'm with him 100%. don't think we're close to demand destruction in terms of price. i didn't know that the administration is suing opec for price man ip lation which is also laughable i won't do it on this day. that there will be time for that i'm sure butvalero makes an all-time high every day and psx and mpc,

we talked about that name in the paul with paul sankey when it was a $60 stock. clearly oil didn't get the memo about fighting inflation and i think it continues to go higher from here. >> there are three ways to make money in the oil sector. one is the waiting in the s&p 500 will grow. i'll mention it every time in if i need to. in this environment, when you have the fundamentals so good it will double back to the 20-year average. but then what companies are doing, conicooco phillips, theye called best two-way player so their exposed to the higher commodity and they'll return 10% back to the shareholders and they grew the capex 8% which starts to get you worried if it is old school. it is not what is going on the sector has totally different capital discipline that is what mike referred to, they're buying back shares, that

is the third leg of the stool. royal dutch is buying back a ton of stock and i think they're well positioned in terms of capital discipline. >> and marathon mpc raising the cash flow estimates, i believe that was yesterday morning or afternoon. thank you. let's stay with the energy trade. because shares of albemarle topping the tape they mind the oil of electric cars, lithium. and demands are strong and so are earnings and lithium prices are expected to remain elevated for evs as well albemarle. i mean super bright spot is it sustainable? >> i think so because we haven't begun to scratch the surface in terms of transitioning away afrom fossil fuel cars to evs from a much more way

and one thing that you said, one thing that you said prior lead me to here is whether or not they are fully hedged or have flexibility around their contractual obligations. well lb fitted into that niche nicely they have pot spaces but able to renegotiate to take advantage of the surges that we're seeing in prices so if year able to navigate that nimbly and i think you're seeing it translate into the share price. >> thank you very much albemarle maybe not one of the few bright spots, maybe the brightest spot in the entire market today we have an earnings alert for you on zillow. and the online real estate market place it did beat on the both the top and bottom lines but look at that, stock down 9%. investors clearly not impressed with the forward guidance. karen it is not a company -- i doubt you own it but they've had a lot of problems >> i do own it. >> okay. there you go. >> i will -- yes

>> it is having trouble getting out of its own way and i'm being polite. >> well i bought it after they got out of the home buying business which i thought was a absolute disaster. a very capital intensive business and they realized we made a mistake and we're getting out of it and so the rest of the business, the imt, which is the zillow website that we all know and the information and then they have the premier agent business that part of the business was actually fine in the quarter as they said. however, the guidance for the second quarter which is historically a very good quarter, is lower. so that is disappointing but even more important than that, is sort of the proxy that it is for the housing market in general. so if they have less traffic to that site, it tells you the housing market is cooling, i think it is a great business they finished the buy back and they're doing another buy back so i like the new asset light business, but clearly it is just trading the sentiment to the extent it is a technology firm, which is really is at this point. technology and broker -- sharing

broken revenue but then those stocks aren't trading well i do like it though, and i'm long and it is painful for sure. >> guy, everybody wants to call themselves a technology company. i have a website, i'm a technology anchor, i suppose but zillow, 5.2% for the 30 year fannie mae fixed rate mortgage you look at home sales going forward, it is hard to be that optimistic >> affordability is a huge concern. we talked about it last night or two nights ago on the show tim mentioned 30-year rates and you just brought it up as well these are not tail winds for zillow karen mentioned the buy back and i think, i think they authorized another billion dollars in a buy back which is not insignificant of a company their size. i think that is about 10% of the market cap so that is interesting but the stock doesn't trade well and i think it continues to sort of grind lower here home builders, pulte homes down to levels where it might be worth taking a look.

it is a lot of this has been taken out of the names home builders trade here might be really interesting, brian. >> i have to tell you, we talked to scott miner and elizabeth birton of hawaii and floits said they all like home builders. so agreeing with the great guy adami. and many of you want to rock in the free world, live nation posting a mixed quarter and saying the demand for tickets and concerts is soaring. revenue though did come in a little bit lower than expected karen, you own this one, a true consumer play. >> yes true -- a true consumer, this is right up your alley, brian even though the revenue appeared light, if you go through the sections of revenue, concerts was light. sponsorship which is a much higher margin was up very nicely and tickets which also has a

much higher margin were also up nicely that is the kind of mixed shift that you want. this is a fantastic company. they're just in such an extraordinary position they control so many venues. ticket master business is amazing and i'm sure -- i know how much you love music. you're probably out and about a lot. my kids are going to festivals all of the time. the growth, think they said 44% over 2019, which is extraordinary. it is a great business not cheap, but it is -- there is nothing like it. >> tim, but there is nothing like it because it is kind of its own thing, right, tim. i'm not going to use the m-word and it rhymes with opoly but they're pretty darn big. >> they are. and can squeeze anybody they want and artists know it too so in a world where artists have had the ability to go straight to market, they really can't and we'll save that for another show the other dynamic is their ability to price and that comes with also that kind of control the vip packages, the merch,

they are there and i think they overshoot to the upside in terms of demand. coy be down to my last cent and i'll find the money to see the who before memorial day. >> don't talk about what i paid for the tickets. but could they squeeze coming up, we're talking apple and good news. one options trader betting the worst may be over. details on that next plus more on today's market hit. it appears there is always value somewhere. coming up, traders will give us stocks that they're keeping their eye on it is the watch list and you'll see it but only if you stick around some bonds inspire confid, and some you grow to rely on. these are the bonds worth investing in. for over 50 years, pimco has reinvented fixed income to create opportunities for investors in every market environment. so, no matter what happens you can build the bonds

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welcome back to "fast money. look at shares of apple. they were not immune to the sell-off today and down 6% and the nasdaq closing out the worst day since june of 2020 and it is options traders betting that maybe, just maybe, the worst is over and the bottom might be in for apple. mike khouw joining us for the "options action" and what may significantle better times ahead? >> when you see big volatility, you see big volumes.

apple is always one of the biggest single stock options that we see. and today it traded 1.5 times over average daily volume. now much of the activity that we're seeing expires tomorrow but if we look out just one week, the most active contracts with a weekly 165 calls that expire a week from tomorrow we saw over 43 and a half thousand. buyers of those calls are obviously making a low premium bet that perhaps the worst could be in and the stock could rebound a bit by next week but of course, a lot of times you may just be playing for a bear market rally and sometimes those could be sharper than the ones that wee see in a conventional market. >> well said, thank you very much bonawyn, if you have to read the tee leaves on apple, would you say it is a bear market rally or real reversal? >> no. if anything it is more of a bear market rally but i don't think it is about that i think it is, as karen said, a flight to quality.

if wur going to get a bounce and that is a big if and that is a name that tends to hold strong regardless of market conditions. >> tim, like an apple. which i don't want to say is a cash equivalent. but if you look at a company with no prospects of going out of business and any time soon, a safety play apple has to be near the top of somebody's list >> well one of the things that apple did in the last earnings release that was heartening to investors is they confirmed what they expected them to do which is $90 billion in buybacks so what they could do in terms of buybacks an the div and cash up in a higher rate environment, i don't think they're going to but they have done that in the past what they're doing on the capital market side of the business is what gives it such a safety play. >> tim, thank you very much. for more "options action," be sure to tune into the full show every friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern tomorrow we'll be up

and we're getting the stocks that each trader is watching their watch list and the names 'rba itwmirern wee ckn o nutes. (dad allen) you know when you see a great deal on a phone, and then realize it's not for you? not at verizon. (mom allen) yep, they just gave us all a brand new iphone 13. (dad allen) we've been customers for years. (dad brown) i thought new phones were for new customers? we got iphone 13s, too. switched to verizon 2 minutes ago. (mom brown) ours were busted and we still got a shiny new one. (boy brown) check it out! (dad allen) so, wait. everybody gets the same great deal?

(mom allen) i think that's the point. (vo) now everyone can get a new iphone 13 on us on america's most reliable 5g network. (allen kid) can i have a phone? (vo) for every customer. current, new, everyone. to show the love.

all right, well over the course of the hour we've been talking about the pain inflicted on the markets, but remember this, you want to buy low and hopefully sell high. so lower prices could be a good thing for long-term investors. want to buy it at a discount so we want to know, what is on our traders' watch list at the right price and that is key. what is the one name they would be targeting right now karen, your name is an interesting one. it is not a name we talk about much the university of rhode island >> yeah, that is it. that is the name also known as united rentals if you could see that they reported earnings last week right, uri they reported earnings last week and their earnings were fantastic and eye never heard them so bullish and i've been following company for years. the revenue stream does not turn on and off quickly, it takes a lot longer to happen

also the other thing, this stock, this company actually is at the lowest debt to ebidta ratio i've seen in years so i lover the balance sheet is in good shape, trades at ten times earnings and we haven't seen the infrastructure bill which is already happening, it is getting paid for. the projects haven't happened yet. that is 2023 so there is a lot to love here expect for the market. and at ten times earnings, they bought back $226 million worth of stock at 323 during the first quarter and even during omicron. so this is a name that if i own those stocks and i just came into the market today, i would start here right at 300 or where it went out exactly, 301, ten times earnings and great company and good balance sheet las love the place >> bonawyn you're on the clock. what are you watching? >> can you see that? >> just do it. >> but at the right price.

>> nike. >> so i'll tell you at what level i'm willing to lace them up i'm looking at a name that hits on all of the things that i'm worried about right now. exposure to china, check mark. multi-national dollar exposure check. supply constraints check consumer, check. so i'm looking at this, if it gets to a 23 times, which would be a significant discount for pe, that brings you back to the pre-pandemic level around 97.5, 98, $99 and would you become up the truck around then. that reads through to all of the things that make me have sleepless nights worried about this market. >> bonawyn choosing nike thank you. all right, tim, you're up. your watch list pick is? >> i like what he did there. my watch list pick is apple. at $125. brian, again, apple is my call that is a market proxy as much as anything. i need to see apple at $125

before i could even feel that the market has gone where it needs to go. remember, apple is roughly 25 times earnings and another 20% lower brings you to that 20 multiple of 125. remember this is the level that the stock was at in august of 2020 this is the level that the stock was at one year ago before it broke higher this equates to about $3,800 on the s&p. and we know the weighting of apples so to me this is partially a call on apple and partially a call on the over market. i don't think markets find their place until apple takes out key levels and gets back to a level that i think it is built this enormous run and at 20 times, company makes a lot more sense than it did at 30. >> you're calling for a $31 drop in the price of apple after already being routed tim, apple >> look at what other mega cap stocks have done and apple is due to do the same thing and this is a one-third retracement off of a massive

rally. this is a $80 stock pre-covid. and you can't tell me we haven't pulled forward enormous demand in terms of apple products i'm waiting for that and last earnings we heard a little bit about the services demand i need to hear about hardware and we didn't hear it is mostly a supply story with apple. >> guy, round us out on the watch list your name is >> real quickly, microsoft 260. that is the prior hire back this time last year reasonable valuation i'm not suggesting it gets there. i think microsoft the most important company on the planet. i think if it does get there, you buy with both hands, brian. >> there we go united rentals, nike, apple and microsoft. up next, more picks. yo falras,ti aunurin tde sckrod. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today.

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and i'll see you at 8:00 tonight. right now the final trades tim kick it off. >> let's go conoco phillips. a major discount conico 10.5. >> bonawyn. >> soxs. i don't think it is long-term. >> karen

>> it got obliterated yesterday, lyft and yet today it was up i think this three day rule is now in effect. i bought some at the close. >> guy >> phillips 66. >> thank you for watchin my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramer america. trying to save you money my job is not just to explain days like today. call me, 1-800-cnbc.