data friday, may 6th, the day after cinco de mayo. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box." here on cnbc, we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. it is friday after a heck of a thursday and week. check out the equity futures you might expect we have seen relief rally if that is the case, go back to sleep. that is not happening. dow futures indicating off 31 points again, this comes after the big declines we saw yesterday. nasdaq this morning down 31. s&p off 7. yesterday, the market gave back all of the gains from the relief rally wednesday and then some.

dow was down 1,063 points. a decline of 3%. it was the best performer. the s&p was off by 3.5%. nasdaq plunged by 5% it was off its worst levels of the day. still the worst day since june of 2020. for the week so far, the dow is flat the s&p is up by .30%. the nasdaq is down only by over .10%. this comes after several volatile sessions and the huge flush last friday. everybody thought we were back from the levels. we are not if you have been watching the nasdaq, we are looking for the nasdaq on track for the worst weekly losing streak since 2012 if you add up all of the losses to date. treasury with the 10-year yield at 3.079%. the price of bitcoin tumbling after stabilizing the day before

you see right now crypto at $36,381. >> all the questions yesterday morning about steve's 75-basis point question and how it was taken. all questions still relevant they have different answers as this point we'll talk to kumar about it i think it was the punchbowl is good and let it stay now we're not going to address what we need powell managed to disappointing both sides in terms of rates are headed up, but -- >> he realized no matter which way they go, will it address inflation so quickly that it causes recession or not address

it enough and inflation causes recession. >> i was going to say trennert has been hawkish about this the entire time. liesman was right about this yesterday at 6:02. effectively, i don't want to speak for him. he said the market doesn't really get it which is that just because he is not going 75 basis points, it will be bad that is the narrative you heard yesterday. that is the realization that this was actually happening. i don't understand why we knew it was happening it just sunk in in a way that was surprising. >> i said it to judy shelton all of the worries of behind the curve and this and that. look at this perfect landing on the aircraft carrier 747.

beautiful three-point touchdown. within eight hours. >> 747s don't land >> yes >> you said huge flush. >> yes markets got flushed out. >> people dump stocks and it is flushed out. >> it takes you in that direction. look at the markets lately you might be thinking. you have to wonder if there is forced liquidation a move of 5% plus in the nasdaq in a day that will get your attention it will make you sit up. >> the one thing that still hasn't happened, all of the growth funds with the private stuff, they haven't marked any of this yet. i don't think we will settle out. when that happens -- that could

take this situation down. >> somebody we talked to earlier this week was pointing out the private markets move behind as you were talking about that is not something that happens a day or two later that is something that happens months we heard from lee cooperman last night about his thoughts on the market we always talk to lee and what he is thinking he said the market is crazy, but bottom line, we are likely to keep heading down. he said he thinks the fed or oil will put us into recession at this point he says recessions tend to happen every four to five years. he says he remains a seller on strength at this point just a familiar voice. somebody we talk to often. those are his thoughts as of last night in the meantime, today is the day. jobs friday. i don't know if we will focus on jobs friday or focus on the

market and whether the market will move on whatever this number turns out to be the countdown to april jobs is on the number to beat is 400,000 jobs the unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 3.5%. given all of the news we heard from this week and the markets, i'm not sure how much, frankly, the markets will focus on this item >> i thought, too. the gdp number was a shocker if a lot of things start to point to the horrible word -- that's where paul tudor jones took me. stagflation. what he said about it was -- that's two strikes three strikes and you're out

when you have slow growth and high inflation that is the worse possible world for financial assets that's when they do sync up. stocks and bonds they both get crushed. it will last a while that is what is scary about the codger i remember i do remember. i was just getting into the work force the last time it happened. you feel helpless. you feel helpless. volcker, it was amazing what he did have to do he was an assassin he kept raising and raising and raising and raising and raising until we got a 40-year disinflationary? >> i think the trouble with the jobs report today is you can look at it glass half full no matter what the number is. if it is a strong number, you think this is going to give the fed room to keep running and raising rates. if it is a weak number -- by the way, if it is a weak number, you

think not only are jobs not out there, but the economy is in trouble. employers with the 11.5 million jobs open from earlier this month, will have to pay more money to get people to take the jobs >> you know what else is in the report wage data. >> yes >> not just jobs that will add -- that can lead to stagflation not great job growth, but wage increases are good, but it adds to the narrative the fed might be -- they have more work than they thought sri is going to 3.5. bing immediately. >> as of this year >> immediately he is raising it >> expectations. >> raising the tar geget to 3.5 he calls him uncle jay he is pretty -- not very complimentary at this point.

shares of block are higher the company known as square reported a miss on the bottom line the cash app is shadowing weakness generated $578 million in gross profit the gains for block offsetting the 10.5% decline we saw in yesterday's session. doordash shares are higher orders rose 23% from a year ago topping $400 million for the first time revenue above. a loss of 48 cents a share was wider than expected. zillow shares are down sharply. the company's earnings beat expectation. the guidance for the quarter that caught attention here it was between $900 million and $1 billion that was way below what the street was looking for at $1.8 billion. in a letter to shareholders, executives said the 2022 housing

market is uncertain with inventory levels low and page views at record highs. demonstrating the supply/demand imbalance. i'm not sure why they are not able to capitalize we turn to it with the pandemic and now demand high and the shortage i don't know why they have not been able to capitalize on page views and people checking things out. coming up, the wednesday relief rally on wednesday wiped out last friday's selloff. head spinning. we talk strategy here he comes after the break with sri kumar we will talk with mike novogratz. kudos to katie stockton. she kept shaking her head. not that way up and down. you are watching "squawk box" on

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sri, a lot of things are happening in sync. you get selling and you see bonds go the other way and yields come down the wealth effect seems a rush to safety and quality. for whatever reason, that did not happen this time they are in sync in a bad way. do you think it is all a commentary on chair powell missing the market in hindsight? he has had a couple of days to look at it >> two points, joe one, you were spot-on when you said you were talking about the potential for stagflation. i wrote about stagflation and impact it will have on bonds and equities as long ago as last october. i think we are going toward stagflation. the reason you don't make money in equities or bonds is stagflation damages both as you said a minute ago.

inflation brings down the value of bonds and the recession causes corporate earnings go down and hurt equities so you have to find other places to hide gold and long-term investments. second, as far as chairman powell was concerned, i think they forgot to brief him that he is the chairman of the federal reserve. he probably went to the press conference thinking he was the cheerleader for equity he came out saying he was paul volcker. he is no paul volcker. he says he will not raise interest rates by 75 basis po points at the same time, he thinks fighting inflation is important. it just doesn't figure, joe. it is inconsistent if this is the way they are going to run policy, that's the

reason why i hiked up to 350 immediately. >> where were you before and what is your timeframe when do you expect 3.5 >> i look for 350 within the next six months. previously i was looking for 325. now i just hiked it up for 350 i think the risk to the forecast is as we get closer to it and we may have to push it up even more i don't think there is relief. there is no goldilocks here. the damage was done with miscalculations from the chairman and fed there is no way they can cut it at this stage. >> when you were talking earlier, i thought of one more thing which is not helpful inflation hurts bonds and then the slowing economy hurts earnings and knowing the fed's response will be higher rates.

that contracts multiples. >> absolutely. >> lower earnings and multiples. you are getting it from all side it harkens back to tpj could not be a worse environment for financial assets everything is aligned. it is aligned. a perfect storm. not a perfectly good storm. >> that's right. that's why stagflation is difficult to control that's why it takes a lot of pain to bring it back. i don't think it is enough in the policy setting environment to do that so you don't have a paul volcker either. you have a combination of a perfect storm. >> sri, 3.5. think about what volcker had to do we are a long way away from anything and to mention those two time periods is ridiculous

at this point. they are so different. that was the last time we dealt with something like this do you expect it to totally get out of control there's been a lot of money and wealth created over the past 10 to 15 years while the fed has had a couple of things to deal with the financial crisis and pandemic easy money has been around it makes me think there's trillion dollar companies and nfts, there's art. is all of this in for a day of reckoning at some point? will people's wealth come down a bit? is this the flip side or will technology save us we are doing things faster and efficiently. a lot of great things happening. >> all of the points you mentioned is true. that is one side of the picture. if you were wealthy and a chunk

of the portfolio you are able to invest in the stock market, you have done very well after 2008 this other part of the picture, the majority of the population cannot invest in equities. they are dependent on bank interest income. retirees do not put much money in equities. these two groups have essentially been battered by the ben bernancke policies in 2008 and janet yellen and now jay powell is doing it you have a situation where you create wealth for the wealthy and at the same time, it comes at the cost of the majority of the population which is low and middle-class income earners. >> on top of everything else what they did hang on to now doesn't buy anything. >> exactly the reason why you didn't have

inflation for ten years is because we impoverished the poor and middle class they are the ones who are spending they couldn't spend. you have less inflation. with the fiscal stimulus, you have money in the hands of the lower income dprgroups, inflati came in january 6th, i switched my projections from higher interest rate to lower interest rate. the stimulus was going to be given to lower income groups and that was going to push up inflation. that's what we see happening it's a very clear picture. that's why i worry, joe, that my 350 expectation for the ten-year yield may be on the loet w side you talk about volcker i watched it it was the beginning of my career i watched with admiration and

fear at the current time, i only have fear i don't have admiration. >> okay. trying to think of something good it's friday sdp. >> i was thinking of the inequality problems. >> sri, that's a fact. the fed. if you have crappy policies fiscally and the fed has to continually step in and all of the policies to help the people you are planning to help, ends up hurting them because of the markup of assets of free money it adds to the income inequality that's where we are. i don't know how long this lasts. we have to go, sri we will have you back. is this a year-long problem? two years? quick answer >> i think it is quick answer. it is going into 2023. longer we have to wait and see. >> thanks, sri. >> thank you, joe. always andrew

>> coming up in just a little bit. we will talk about peloton they are looking for investors you have to hear that story. we'll talk about that and more on yesterday's big selloff and the moves and what to do about it here is the look at the biggest pre-market winners and losers of the s&p 500. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist wealth. where meaningful relationships matter most. they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

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welcome back to "squawk. peloton is exploring the sale to

shore up its business. according to a report in "the wall disstreet journal." it is looking for players to take a 15% to 20% stake. high has fallen from $15 billion last year to $5.5 billion this week i talked to barry mccarthy, the new ceo, six weeks ago, he said they may need to raise more capital. they may have to go out and do that they are trying to change the business model lowering the price of the actual treadmills and cycles and whatnot. effectively trying to amortize that over a higher subscription price. that stock off 1.5%. joe. you got the treadmill. you got the treadmill? is it padded >> i'm a proud treadmill owner treadmill plus the one they don't think is as

safe as it it should be. they improved it through software >> there are flats and you see the wood waves >> that's what this is like. >> it is on a belt. it is worth the money, andrew. it is worth the money for the wood waves that's what i'm using. i'm running a lot. my knees are questionable. >> it is better for the knees. i don't think they are selling that one any more. >> you haven't gotten worse? let's talk about boeing. i checked. under $90 billion now. a lot of things -- i would have said this company now worth more than all the companies are now worth more than boeing are not boeing is moving its headquarters they just moved from seattle to chicago. >> 12 years ago. 15

>> now they will move from chicago to arlington, virginia of tvirginia we all should move closer to washington i'll not call it that. the move brings the aerospace giant closer to regulators and to d.c pentagon officials, lawmakers. it's a win for governor glen youngkin which wins the best state to do business every year. also because of the close proximity to the giant gravy train that comes out of d.c. where all money is spent so effectively. >> satellitrcasm bug over you how do we know his mouth is moving. when we come back, ecommerce stocks plunged yesterday we will get a new read onk of as

new data next. the good view of what is going on as we head to break, look at yesterday's winners and losers let's focus on the losers in the nasdaq etsy down by more than 10% >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers our best deals on every iphone. ♪ ♪

good morning welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. futures have improved. all in the red we were down triple digits when the show began even after what happened yesterday. possible that -- be careful what you wish for -- it is possible it could turn positive you get positivity and it is immediately hit with another wave nobody knows we have the jobs report coming at 8:30.

a lot of stuff -- a lot of stuff that should compel you to keep it here. keep it here whatever your channel is you put in 47 and it goes to some higher number it goes to the hd side of things the geneius of the xfinity box right, andrew? you don't. >> i'm a new yorker. >> that should offset the close proximity to museums and takeout food that right there should override the other stuff. >> i'll get myself a flex, joe >> get yourself a flex that's a good idea. >> get myself a flex. >> it sounds like something you can use with your treadmill. it's not it's a tv product, right treasuries sri kumar has been pretty good on this stuff. he said for years it would stay

at 1%. it did or close to it now he says 3.5. he he said. giant flush is the operative term that happened with crypto. just like clock work yesterday bitcoin rebounded and looked like it would go above 40. not yesterday. not with the market and what it did yesterday. it is treated like a speculative asset. >> treated because it is a speculative asset. the ultimate speculative asset >> when people need money and losing money somewhere else, they get money from bitcoin and it goes down maybe that changes some day. at this point, it is just like we said. it didn't look like the dog. it looked like the tail. >> yes yes. yesterday. in the meantime, bank of america institute is out with the latest data on consumer spending

finding credit card spending is up 24% compared to pre-pandemic levels will this latest market plunge spoil the shopping spree joining us is david tinsley. david, these numbers are interesting. you very broad reach we said it before. you have 1 of 2 households you get a really good read of what is happening across america. there have been a lot of concerns people saying they would spend less because prices are up and traveling less that is not what you are finding in the data. >> thanks for having me on you are right. 67 billion customers and we see a lot there for spending that's going on in the u.s. and what we are seeing in april is the data is good. total payments up 25%. credit card payments up 13% in the year to april. within those lower income households, we are seeing

spending up on pre-pandemic levels around 33%. so, i think right now, the consumer is in very good shape there are lots of other metrics we look at with the institute. we feel comfortable where the consumer is right now. >> let me try to poke holes in that p people will look at this and say yes, but spending is up, but are they paying off their credit card bills in time? >> we look at that data as well. there's no sign of the deterioration there. we also look at balances and savings and checking accounts on consumers. they still have quite a lot of cash saved from stimulus checks. particularly if you look at the lower-income households. they have money in the bank to shore up economic turbulence right now. there does seem to be a buffer with the consumer to weather

some of that. >> here is another yes, but for you. yes, but how much of this is because prices are up? how much is based on transactions up or how much is because of inflation itself? >> that's obviously the $1 million question inflation. numbers are up 13% on the cards. it is not all big picture. it is not all inflation. transactions just in the slight if you like. 8% year on year. sure, inflation is driving some of that. you see gasoline prices and stuff. one of the things that is happening that is really interesting and from the graphic right now, you see the swing back to services spending going on largely incompincomplete during the pandemic, people were refraining from spending and travel and entertainment and eating out now people are getting back out to doing the things they love.

airline and travel up 60%. t there's a big switch in the data as well. >> david, we are watching the market collapse and watching all of the boom sayers say look out below and it will continue your numbers show a strong economy. what do you think when you see that >> what i think is, you know, the fed has the difficult balance. it has to land the aircraft on the carrier and hopes the landing is soft and not too choppy when we look at the consumer data, we feel reasonably good about that spending is high at the moment labor market is driving the figures. we will probably see that again today being wiped out. we see more money in the bank for many consumers than they had going into the pandemic.

so, there are buffers in there we must not be blase about this. there are buffers to make us feel comfortable. >> maybe the most important thing you have seen is what is happening with the lowest core of individuals we worry the wealthy have gotten wealthier, but we worry about the bottom core tier of americans? >> in spending terms, the core tier of the pre-pandemic spending is up 33% if you look at the labor market, many of the jobs growth, spectacular jobs growth we have seen, has been in those relatively lower paid jobs we look at wage growth in those jobs it is clicking in and double digits it is over 10% some cases 15% to 20%. admittedly, had this is an

unusual situation. right now, the lower income distribution is relatively well. obviously they have issues with inflation and stuff. again, things look okay, i would say. >> how quickly would you know if there was a problem if there is something that was signaling look out below that the tide has suddenly turned? >> that's a good question. we're getting had this data in real-time essentially. we get weekly and monthly data reads. we are looking extensively across the balance sheets of consumers and end goings if there is a weakening, we willisee it relatively quickly. >> david, thank you. that's why we have to have you back we appreciate your time. call us immediately if you see it turn. >> i will. thank you. here is the latest coming up, the fda limiting the use of the johnson & johnson

vaccine. now they tell us details after the break. we expect the april jobs report at 8:30 a.m we will have live coverage and ana analysis you can watch or listen to us live any time on the cnbc app. we'll be right back.

fda is limiting the use of

the johnson & johnson covid vaccine. the agency says the shot can be used in cases where other vaccines are not available or if an adult elects to receive the johnson & johnson vaccine because they would not otherwise get one. the fda determined the risk of rare and potentially deadly blood clots warranted limiting the use. johnson & johnson shares down 1% this morning andrew. fast thcinatifascinating. we have more coming up market turmoil we will dig into the selloff in tech stocks and potentially some buying opportunities as folks try to figure out which way this is headed. as we head to break right now, check out the biggest year to date losers in the nasdaq 100. netflix tops the list. "squawk" is coming back right after this

welcome back to "squawk box. tech was hit badly from the selloffvestors looking for opportunities for growth in the sector the question is is there any and where? joining us is the portfolio manager on wall street and reporter and cnbc contributor. paul, i'm starting with you. i'm curious what your reaction was to the selloff yesterday and to the extent you would be a buyer in this market i think there are people who say i'm a long-term holder these are good prices. you heard some of our other guests today they think this is a one-way road and it is going down.

>> you know, i wish i had a crystal ball i was shocked by the action yesterday. particularly after the action the day before i have been on the program several times in the last weeks and months and anti-tech i'm known to be a tech fairly anti-tech even though i've been known to be a tech investor, but i do think there are some good opportunities because we're at the end of quarterlies so i've heard enough and i wouldn't go all-in tech, but i would go some in tech. and i think there are interesting ideas that can be bought here and now. >> give us some of those ideas i'm sure there are some folks lekking t licking their wounds this morning. >> i'd put a bit in the market, i'd go if sln slowly

arista and i'd buy some tesla. it was up 17% yesterday on its report, versus a negative tape, and that's silicon motion. >> you say you'd buy some tesla? >> i actually would. i actually think that the growth is very interesting, and i do know you would never buy tesla with any kind of valuation metric never had, never would, but i d think it would be on my list of select, not necessarily tech, but techish names to buy here. >> what are you hearing from investors, private equity, we talking about just the marks that are takes place in that space in that they have not been marked down but how are you, you know, what is the prevailing view about whether there's opportunity here or not? >> thanks, andrew.

this is an incredibly, incredibly challenging environment for many investors we have not seen stock and bonds fall simultaneously like this in decades, in data going back to the 1970s. so i think this is a really, really tough environment for investors that i've been speaking with to navigate. and i think one challenge is that if you bought the dip earlier this year. if you looked to the faang stocks and tried to buy those at a discount earlier this year you've gotten burned even some of the biggest tech names are sitting on huge losses this year. think about bill ackman where he bought netflix and ended up sorely disappointing after the recent quarter's earnings results. i think even stepping in to find these discount can be challenging from how much foreselling do you think was happening yesterday in >> i think yesterday's move was

incredibly puzzling. just so many traders i was speaking with to see that huge drop right after we saw that post-federally a we are seeing moves we haven't seen se seen since 2020 when the pandemic was first sweeping through. >> what's your macro take on which way this market is headed? are you of the view that this is going to be a very choppy, if not rough road, downwards? or warren buffett always likes to say, whether stuff is lower, people freak out, but that's when you're supposed to buy it >> i'm in the latter camp. the way i look at it is we're not going to see these troubles go away. some of them are multi-year lasting. but if you show me a couple months where we have

decelerating still up, inflation, we've already had the fed put out their very aggressive, hawkish road map for raising rates the next year or two. fan we get any whiff of any easing in the action in ukraine i think we can trigger a rally that being said, i don't expect it today i don't expect it tomorrow i still would, don't put all of your plumoney to work, start tou some of your money to work now. >> on the faangs, since some of our viewers are still holding a lot of the faang stocks, are you of the view that you would hold them would you sell them at this point? i know you mentioned a couple of them there, but what would you do with a netflix? >> the only faangs that i trust are microsoft, apple and google. and i don't care how much amazon or netflix are down or even meta i don't trust their models,

because they're going through a met more fossis in all of those businesses if you want to pick up or don't own it, i would encourage you to hold google, apple, microsoft, because i think over teime they will be just fine, they will be resilient, but not the other faangs from the other thing we've been talking about the last couple weeks is the retail investor in this whole thing we've been following robin hood. how much do you think the retail investor is even playing -- i hate to use the word playing -- but involved in this right now. >> so data that we've looked at has showed that retail activity has fallen this year during the volatility it's too soon to say hey, they' they've gone away completely, but there's certainly been a decrease in activity it's in line with other corners of the market where a lot of the trade has come down to earth, whether it's bitcoin prices

falling. you know, some of that bullish call option activity, that was all the rage that's come down, and we have seen that retail stock trading diminished in the first quarter. >> hey, paul, final question i don't know if you've spent anytime looking at crypto. we've cracked 35,000 or below 36 into the 35s the tail or the dog for you? >> you know, i continue to worry about crypto maybe i'm too old school i am not naïve to think that we won't have a world dominated some day by digital currency, but i don't flow if it'set reyum or bit coin. s super speculative. >> appreciate it we'll see where this market heads today and job number and everything else that's coming

with it, becky >> when we come back, we'll bring you the jobs report. but before that, billionaire investor, mike know voe grats joins us we'll talk to him about that and check out the futures. dow futures down by 76 no rebound at this point, despite the fact that it lost more than a thousand points yesterday. nasdaq was down by 5% styeerday, indicated down another 60 points and the s&p which was off by 3.5% yesterday indicated down15 more

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good morning, and welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin and the focus for investors this morning, april jobs report, and yes, there's major meltdown. the dow dropping over 3%, the worst day since october 2020 the nasdaq suffering its worse

day since june of 2020 and sitting at its lowest level since november of that year. let's show you where things tannesand this morning dow off about 75 points nasdaq looking to open down about 60 points. the s&p 500 looking to open down about 15 points. put on your seat belt. let's show you the ten-year note as well. we have crossed the 3% threshold, closing in on 3.1%. i don't even know what the analysis is. as people start to understand that maybe stagflation is here, as people seem to be thinking the feds too dovish, too hawkish. >> i think it's a mix of things. >> i'm losing the plot here. i thought we knew what was going on >> can you give me a scenario for the jobs number that either

causes to take off positively or causes to sell-off negatively. >> i think whatever we get from the jobs report, i think it's glass half full. >> asymmetric. glass half empty >> if it comes in at 200,000, you say that's going to do some work for the fed >> we need the wage gains to be, i think that may be more important than the overall number what it tells us about inflation. >> are we paying up, that's when you get stuck in that cycle, if wages are continuing to climb and climb rapidly. that means the fed has a lot more work that it's going to have to do that describing ines investors it's called taking stock or tanking stock. it was down a thousand points or

down again on monday, up again wednesday. yesterday, giving all of that back, and then some. and by the way, the nasdaq is the real bad performer we talk about the dow, just because it's bigger in terms of point size, but on a percentage basis. the nasdaq is the one that's really been whipsawed all over the place. yesterday down 5%. and when a major average loses 5% in a day, that is just something to take note of. >> yeah. and that would be the one that you figure it could happen to. >> right big up on the way up. >> yesterday we had bookings and holdings, it's like thousands of dollars a share. they have gone, the high flyers are way up dom chu, dom chu's a high flyer, looking at what is moving in the free market. what is it, the wells fargo this

week >> it is, yes. >> got to get my mind off all this stuff happening >> at this point i almost want to put one of these apps like fan duel or draft kings on my phone, it might take away from what's going on. 's it's been a rough week for all of us. bitcoin, i bet $3 on a game last night and i made $15, and i was in a really good mood. the mets came back and scored seven runs in the ninth inning >> did you see the poor players? >> them aparnd the guardians, a made $15 >> and i looked at bitcoin and i tried to calculate my losses there, and it didn't matter. >> grlass half full or half empty. >> accentuate the positive

anyway, all right, so let's take us through the market action you mentioned the high flyers. let's start off with one really flying high right now, that's the energy complex generally speaking, but i'll hone in on the natioural gas trade wti, up. it's that natural gas trade, $8.90 the last move. it seems modest, but if you take a look at where we are right now, that is, i've lost track now, it's either a 13 or 14-year high at this point for natural gas prices we spoke a little bit in the discussion yesterday, this notion that gas prices, they're fundamental drivers, the geopolitical risk, the situation in ukraine and all of a sudden we have warmer weather in the united states and canada,

surging demand for things like power, electricity, air conditioners, all that sort of thing. if you are a natural gas consumer like i am for my home, you are seeing it for sure in your bills and you will continue for a while. so that gas trade is important let's take a look at some of the other fundamental moves in markets today for companies actually reporting earnings because they're still going on right now. cigna's one to watch keep an eye on this. it's a health insurer, and it reports profits that came in better than estimates and raised a key metric of operating metric so cigna shares could be one to watch there. by the way, it was helped along mostly by its pharmacy benefit, health services business so cigna shares, keep an eye on those. and then you got to check on the trillion dollar club there are still four members it used to be five tesla is still below the 1

trillion dollar mark but microsoft, apple, the only one showing some gains is alphabet meanwhile, anywhere from 4% to 6%, 7% losses. i like to point out, joe, and you guys know this some viewers who don't tune in to this show all the time. new viewer this is morning, those four stocks are very important, because they make up a tenth of the s&p 500 and nearly 40% of the nasdaq 100 so as these stocks ifgo, so goe the market and they are lower again today. we'll see if that sticks >> thanks, dom, we'll see you again, hopefully, next hour. i don't know who knows. i don't want to tease you if that's not for sure. >> that's a begigger tease. >> i may see you guys later on

i am going to head back to my desk it's jobs friday steve liesman joanins us with a preview. a lot riding on this, and it's hard to say how the market will react no matter what the numbers are. >> i have an answer. i want to walk you through what we're looking for here you have the turmoil in the markets, fear of recession, looking for another strong jobs report there's a reason here for concern about weakness, and i'll go through this. 400,000, that's down a little bit from the 431 that we had last month unemployment rate ticking down again. i think that will be one of the all-time lows we've ever had average ouhourly wages, 0.4. there are some worries that hiring could be weak, coming from concerns from the war in ukraine or the rising energy prices and inflation bigger worry, there may not be enough workers to hire steven stanley of amhurst

writing the main question is how long businesses will be able to true in hundreds of thousands of new workers before the pool of workers begins to dry up and morgan stanley says we continue to expect labor force draws people back into the labor force. that's the debate. the data leading up to the report has been mostly strong. the jolt's showing 11.5 million job openings jobless claims remain at or there historic lows, but the keys to this report beyond how many are hired, how many come into the workforce and how high wages had to rise to attract them becky, it was you or joe asking what was good for the market you show me a rising participation rate and lower wages or at least modest wages, that would get us on the track to saying we're maybe perhaps resolving the labor issues we have in this country >> what are the odds that you

are going to see a drop in wages? i would bet a lot of money we don't see that but you watch this more closely than i do. >> so slim to none i don't think we're anywhere near that. and that's what i keep looking for and asking when we talk to company executives are we near an equilibrium level where we have the wage right to bring the people in and create the pool of available worker, and i just don't think we're there yet. we have had some good gains. over time, a certain amount of years here perhaps it may create moderation in wage gains, but right now, people who are leaving jobs for new jobs are doing very well. what we need to figure out is what is the wage gain to bring some people who retired early off, bring them back into the workforce and some of the people especially in the 25-54 range. those numbers are closer to where they were before the pandemic, but they're tstill

below. >> but with 11.5 million job openings right now, it's hard to imagine that the hourly wages won't go up for some time to come there is discovery to bring back those who have been out for a couple years >> i don't think we're near there. and you're right, becky. there's a ways to go, right? if you think about that whole process, wages go up they don't necessarily work their way into the nainflation r consumer spending numbers right away right, so businesses figure out what they need to hire and figure out what do i need to charge to make a profit off of that so there still may be a kind of wage-driven inflation coming through the system, and i think that's one of the things that powell very much fears >> steve, thank you. obviously, we'll see a lot of you today. check back in with you in just a little bit >> sure. coming up, we will talk about it yesterday's selloff wiping out all the gains from wednesday's

fed-inspired rally jaceson trenert's going to join us to discuss what investors should be doing. before we head to the break, though, take a look at some of yesterday's biggest losers in the s&p 0. quk x" coming right back after this

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whoa. the futures this morning off the big selloff yesterday. more red again this morning. joining us is jason trennert, at strategic research partners, a baird company. in behind sight after yesterday, you have a lot of reasons why the market was down. do you have why it went up wednesday after steve liesman's question did you think that was ill advised to be buying did you expect something like happened on thursday to follow on wednesday >> i didn't expect the

magnitude. i hate to criticize the man in the arena, jay powell, but he achieved the worst of both worlds it's one thing if stock prices are down a lot, and you say well, the fed's on the case. they understand. at least you get something for it here, i'm not quite sure the fed really achieved much you just have lower stock prices, and it's mainly because the fed, i think the market is worried that the fed is going to pullity pull its punches and it's not going to take it seriously enough to get it under control in any acceptable period of time >> in hooklooking at your notesu seem to be saying two things that can't happen at the same time your view is that the fed put is still fairly far out of the money. they're not going to do anything based on weakness and asset prices that's not going to be what

causes them -- >> no. >> all right but then --so then at the same time, you say they're really not doing enough so you are saying that they're messing up on both sides, then they're going to let asset prices fall and continue to be in a hiking cycle, but not quickly or not far enough to make a difference for inflation. >> yeah, no, and that's that is correct had a chance to forecast inflation. and it whiffed from a professional responsibility point of view, they have to tighten, they have to make it seem that they have control of inflation also from a reputation point of view, the fed's reputation is on the line, and that counts for a lot. and in my opinion the fed put is

gone for the time being. that presents a particular problem for companies that have to rely on the capital markets to, for their operations if you're self-funding, if you have a lot of cash flow, if you can distribute money in my opinion, those companies are very much at risk until it seems as if the fed has inflation under control, and right now it doesn't seem as if it's under control >> you were probably busy, were you watching sri kumar earlier >> i did not >> here's what he said we've had, basically assets being marked up from easy money from the fed for ten, 12 years, while normal people, or not normal, but people that don't maybe have a lot of assets or

not a lot of money in the stock market, they're getting no return on their money for ten, 12 years, so they're sort of falling behind, and now they're hit with inflation on the money that they have left. that's a really hideous combination. >> i really do think that's part of the populist movement over the past 12 years. i really briefelieve that. if you have a venture capital portfolio, fed has been positive for you. if you are just a regular guy or regular gal who has a savings account you get kneecapped and if inflation's 1.5% or 2 and cpi's 8.5. you're getting 75 basis points on your cash, that's not acceptable and the fed, in my opinion, the fed is very much going to be a

political issue this november. inflation was a significant political issue in new jersey and virginia this past november and i think it's increasingly going to become a political issue as we head to the midterms in six months. >> okay. let's just sketch the worst case scenario and the best case scenario which one do you want to start with i want to leave people on a friday with the best case scenario that means we have to do the worse case and we could run out of time. how bad could inflation get if they raise, let's say they don't go as vlasicfast as you want tho go how high could rates end up in your view and where would that put the stock market >> well, joe, theoretically, you can't get control of inflation if you have negative real rates

across the yield curve if inflation's 8.5%, and ten-year treasury rates are 3%, there's no way you're going to get there. in my opinion, the fed's fund rate is going to have to go to something like 3% to 4% and the fed's going to have to hope that the inflation falls to something like 4 >> i said if we start with the worst -- and immediately, i hear a rap in my ear. they're following along really well do you have a best-case scenario, maybe the supply chain eases. and maybe the fed doesn't have to do nearly as much and maybe we're back on track. is that a possibility? >> it is a possibility >> okay, thank you >> it's, i'm sorry it's very much a possibility >> it's not you. okay that is a possibility. i just wonder, on you, because there are some frightening

scenarios and then there are some not-toso-frightnot-so-frigg scenarios. student loan >> not anymore i had them after i got out of grad you paid them off in. right thing that was stupid. >> i'm going to send a bill to the government know what i mean >> yeah. all right, trennert. front wards, backwards, it's all the same i which it was isi we used to do trennert, isi. when we come back, the ceo of spotify putting his money where his mouth is in make ing big investment in his company. and oil prices rising for a third straight session

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now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what is the world's fastest production car the answer the koenigsegg jesko absolut, reaching a maximum speed of 330 miles per hour spotify ceo tweeting a message announcing he's going to be investing $50 million in the music streaming company saying i've always been vocal about my strong belief in the company and i am investing $50 million in spot i believe our best days are ahead he said had that tweet the announcement coming in a time when tech companies are out of favor with wall street.

spotify shares down 55% over the past year. and this goes to the question. are these companies on sale, guys and i don't know if his investment unto itself is going to turn things around, just given the plaqmacro factors. >> when insiders start buying, what do they know that we don't in they're not always right, but it's gad t it's good to follow the insider selling and buying at least he's got some confidence >> and he's a long-term holder if you plan to hold the stock for a while, i'm hoping with all this stuff you'll be a winner if you're long enough >> the insider buying and selling is always better than the stock buybacks, because with the stock buybacks they're playing with monopoly money, house money. when it's their own cash, it's

not monopoly money >> 100%. still to come, a pulse check on energy, as oil continues to move higher. we're going to talk about that, get you up to speed, bring you some of the top picks this that sector, next head to a break, take a look at your crypto prices bitcoin seeing its biggest interday drop since january. we're going to talk with mike novogratz in the next hour stay tuned you're watching "squawk box. th this is cnbc, and markets, yep, they're in turmoil

among all the volatility, energy moving decidedly higher this week. check out natural gas prices they've been surging with the benchmark surging to a high. joining us is the head of global commodity strategy at rbc chodity mchod commodity markets.

and let's talk about this decided move up with natural gas and oil. it's happening despite lockdowns we've seen in china. >> we're very focussed on the situation with the new european sanctions. when the europeans have come out and indicated they are indeed looking to wind down imports of crude that looked like potentially happening in six to 12 months. that's 2.2 million barrels of russian exports to europe that will now be in the balance there's a question, would india absorb that? but the europeans have come out and said we're going to make it incredibly difficult to ship this product, to basically ensure insure cargos. >> this has gotten way more complicated, and way beyond what we had originally thought.

rob, you're looking at this as something that's going to last years and years and really affect the way we view all of our energy here. >> yeah, becky so energy security has become really, really important right now. so that's really been elevated we've got low inventory. halima's right but actually, that's where the u.s. can play a really critical role the u.s. and canada can play a really important role in enhancing domestic security and global energy security as well >> there's a lot of stocks you like in this play. let's start with hefchevron, ju because berkshire hathaway increased its stake in chevron along with bank of america and apple. i forget what the fourth is. but with that, what are you seeing here that makes chevron stand out among the pack

>> the ceo is outstanding but we need more oil and gas production in north america that's going to help alleviate the high prices that we have right now. we need more, but the future of energy actually also involves decarbonization, and how does the world dekar bohnize? and chevron has indicated that not only can they embrace it but they can participate in it as well they're doing a lot of things with renewable natural gas, renewable diesel, things that will really help the world dee cash niez as well. while you do all this, you get a nice dividend, two times the s&p 500. >> halima, natural gas has really been the story. because while we're talking about europe blocking oil coming from russia, they have not got ngote into gas explain the backdrop for that. >> the europeans are of mooing

moving on oil. but in terms of natural gas, they're obviously concerned about the economic calamity if they were to have to get off russian-piped gas immediately. they're not moving on gas yet, but the highlight is, russians have indicated they will weaponize exports into europe. they have already cut off poland, bulgaria, a number of european countries are coming up on their deadlines, and the eu is telling them they cannot pay in rubles. the question is, are we going to see cascading cut-offs of european markets and there is no easy replacement product out there. there is no spr for gas. and yes, we've had more lng going into europe, but there is nothing that could back fill a

major russian gas cutoff right now. >> you have a couple of natural gas stocks >> if you look at chenieri, we're energy independent export. and chenier e is the best for that they are doing all dhthey can t help reduce europe's reliance on russian gas. the other thing is there's not a lot of companies in the broad market meeting and beating expectations and raising 2022 expectations the other place is eqt, the

largest natural gas producer in the u.s. if you haven't listened to their ceo, toby rice talk, he's a fantastic speaker. it's a great opportunity for investors to get exposure to u.s. natural gas that's really going to help improve energy security going forward and also, eaveryone know this is i think, natural gas dekar bohnizes as well you reduce carbon emissions by 50%. >> you've got an energy perspective play in bridge >> yes, once again beat expectations. big dividend yield so that's one reason, but when you look at enbridge, they're kind of doing everything, all of the above, what we think at tortoise is going to be successful they're providing energy security, critical infrastructure we can't have energy security without critical infrastructure.

enbridge provides that we're going to need more canadian oil and canadian natural gas. they have pipelines that can transport from canada to the u.s. just as importantly, like chevron, enbridge is committed and to participating in this energy transition and to dee carb niezing so they announced a carbon capture hub in canada. they are doing other things with hydrogen, experimental projects with hydrogen, using hydrogen commodities. hydrogen is very dekar bohnizing as well. >>your firm is tortoise, and i guess that's because you're telling investors the tortoise always wins. slow and steady wins the race

versus the hare, but some have performed like hares lately, taking off to the races. >> the rest of the market, becky and joe and ann drew were talki about the market at all time highs every day. energy stocks were a long ways away from all-time highs in a lot of cases they are still a long way away from all-time highs. what stocks do well. it's energy tostocks they offer the ability to capture the potential upside to those two environments and they're reasonably valued. and then the free cash flow yield of the sector is three or four or five times higher than the s&p 500. that's why we believe there's opportunity here to go higher. >> halima, thank you for setting the table for us, letting us look at the big picture. we'll see you both soon.

>> thank you >> thank you lot more coming up ahead we're going to take a look at the markets ahead of the jobs report at 8:30 and which way it could head, depending on which way those numbers turn out and check out the moves on the nasdaq this week we'll have more on the move in big tech in just a bit "squawk box" coming ra bteack after this trying to make sense of these markets. tending hives of honeybees, and mentoring a teenager — your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your passions, and the way you help others. so you can live your life. that's life well planned.

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welcome back to "squawk box," futures now 117 on the dow, sort of in the mid point of what we've seen this morning, down a little less, down a little more. horrific day in the nasdaq yesterday, don't see 5% days much adding to those losses in the premarket, the s&p down about 21 jobs report, andrew. >> let's talk about it, because the countdown is on. we're about 45 minutes away from the number forecasters expecting the economy add 400,000 jobs last month, that would be the 11th

straight month at jobs at 400,000 or greater the big question is what wages look like and out fed reacts to that if wages go up, which you think would be a good thing for people in some perverse way could be a bad thing for the markets and even the broader economy >> once you get into that, that wage inflation spiral, that's the concerning thing liesman made a very good point he the participation rate's going to be a thing to watch you had hwill have to pay to gee people in. there are 11.5 million job opening also this country. that is a lot of jobs to fill. lee cooperman did weigh in with us we were going back and forth last night

look, the market's crazy, but the bottom line is we're probably going to keep heading down at this point he thinks the fed or oil will push us into a recession points out that a recession comes every four or five years in our country and we are overdue at this point. he remains a seller on any strength at this point probably not what you want to hear on friday as we get towards the jobs opening, but that's what he says right now >> he didn't have a recession during the pandemic. >> no. >> too short >> we flooded the system with money. fiscally and from the fed on both counts. that's why even though the market dropped so sharply, we propped things back up >> the duration is a key part. we closed it down. i mean, the number, the gdp number was certainly qualified but the duration was not long enough, and it was totally external, from external factors.

when we come back, as joe mentioned, technology getting crushed in yesterday's selloff, a 5% decline for the nasdaq. we'll have more from the tech sector after this. and later, we'll be talking crypto with mike novogratz "squawk box" will be right back.

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and high flyers continuing to drop further away from their all-time highs the joining us now with reasons to perhaps remain optimistic and where to put your money, a partner at gray croft you have a little bit of optimism amid all this pessimism? where do you get it from >> i don't think you can be a pessimist and invest in these companies. so look, companies -- we need to be long term, right? so there's a lot of trends over the next five to ten years that we're still really excited about, whether it's telemedicine or some of these trends in work. obviously, you're seeing some of those pandemic-era darling stocks getting hit but there are still area that is we're excited about, but obviously, in the short term, there's a lot of turbulence to say the least.

>> ellie, the other question, we talked about earlier during the broadcast today is just how many of these private investments are not being properly marked yet to reflect in fact where the public markets are and what that ultimately could do. the public markets meaning there is this vicious cycle that could emerge >> yes so it's certainly a lagging indicate indicate, right. but it takes some time. we're seeing it show up in some of the later-stage companies as it makes sense the growth valuations, companies closest to ipo are the ones most closely tied to multiples, and you're starting to see some down rounds you're starting to see an overall shift in economics away from growth at all costs which is kind of the prevailing

sentiment over the last few years. you're starting to see all the shifts the certainly, there's an awful lot of markets that haven't been adjusted, but that's also because they get adjusted a little bit differently. but we are going to see more of that it's, it hasn't even adjusted all the way through to the earliest stages. we're just starting to see that, so it really does take some time to work its way through. but, you know, the flip side to that is for every later stage company that's starting to do layoffs, and we are starting to see that feagain. you're seeing a lot of those people end up with multiple job offers within a week, right? so there's still, you know, a real wealth of talent out there and places for these people to go so we're spending a lot of time

making sure these companies can gettin get access to that talent. >> one of the issues was there was always the sense that six months, 12 months later we're going to raise more capital. that capital, obviously getting more expensive i think that's one of the big concerns >> it is capital's getting more expensive. the prices are changing. and even the indicators that matter to those investors have changed. so that is going to be painful for companies who don't have control of their own destiny in the short term and don't have balance sheets that can, you know, kind of get them through the next call it 12-18 months. so, you know, everyone is taking a hard look at the companies that need additional capital you're seeing people look internally and make sure their own portfolios are capitalized, you know, as well as they can be

and then taking steps to, you know, to make sure esh'sverybods going to be okay, but yes, it's going to be rocky. and the prevailing sentiment is that flat is the new up. >> when you think about where we are in the market, does their feel like 1999 to you or frankly, 2000? i don't want to say 2008 to you. but if you were to think of a comparable period, and i ask, because there are a lot of public investors who are watching this broadcast right now, waking up trying to figure out what to do with their portfolio. okay, is there still another 10%, 20% down here if not, this a great buying opportunity? contextualize it >> sure, no, i don't think it's 1999 obviously, there's a lot of great companies out there with

real business models you know it's not all, you know, we're not all talking about impressions. right? things have changed to some extent, right, there's obviously areas where you could poke holes, but there's a lot of strong companies if you probably bought a basket of a bunch of companies that i don't know, over the past 18, 24 months, the companies that went public, over five years you would do very well, you could do very well, depending obviously but there's probably some really big winners in there so i, you know, i do think there's reasons for optimism that it isn't 1999 these trends are persistent, and zoom has gotten crushed for example, but zoom's place in our lives isn't just going to disappear. you're seeing it in e-com, too if you look over 2019, it's still much, much higher.

these things are persistent. certainly, there are area that is were overheated, and we're seeing that normalize, that ten-year trend to multiples or below. i don't worry that it's a dotcom crash. but we are seeing some correcting but in terms of opportunity for those looking more over the long term, there's some, there's definitely, on, telemedicine, teledoc is getting crushed that's not going away. it's till early there. so there's various ways to, you know, invest in those thing, and i'm still bullish over the long term >> ellie, i afrey i agree but. wish of th which of the business also have success. given that you're in the private space, to the extent that we have wealthy investors out there who have cash on the sidelines, do you say allocate into this

market right now or allocate to the private markets because there's going to be a whole vulture feeding frenzy that could happen potentially in the next six to 12 months? >> the public's obviously, i think that ends up being a timing question. the publics are being, adjusting quickly, obviously you're seeing that here. and some of these things are solid businesses and appear to be on sale at the moment, if you're taking a longer look, and you see kind of cross over investors and later growth stage right now allocating to public because those multiples have adjusted more and you know, are seeing opportunities there so i think there's going to be opportunities in both places and but private does take a little bit longer to adjust to the public market realities. and so we're kind of in the middle of that, because these

companies don't necessarily need to come back and raise for another, you know, obviously depending on the company, another six, 12 months the but once we go through a cycle there certainly will be opportunities there. >> okay. ellie, we appreciate it. thank you so very, very much joe? and coming up, mike novogratz joans us to talk markets and this week's big moves in crypto. and the jobs report is coming in about a half hour. about 8:30 we'll give you the instant analysis as soon as it break diana olick talks about this the online zillow company, revenue came in higher than expected but revenue guidance was $900 million to $1 billion and the estimates are $1.8 billion

that's lik th that's like you could drive a truck through it the 2022 market is uncertain inventory levels very low. that say it is all right there supply and demand in balance "squawk box" coming right back

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good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. pretty dark out there today, a lot of rain. i'm here with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin this is coming after the steep decline from yesterday if you were looking for a bounce back this morning, nope, at least not yet. dow futures are down about 113 points, the s&p down 18. we did see yields pick up. in fact, the ten-year note at

this point is yielding 3.087%, getting closer to 3.1% as i mentioned, we're coming off a historic day on wall street when the technology shares in particular got slammed the nasdaq down by 647 points, a decline of 5% just for the day it was the index's worst day on a percentage basis in nearly two years and the third worst point drop ever. apple, amazon, alphabet, microsoft and meta all getting hit by 4% or more. amazon was down by 7.6%, and that gets us set up for where we are this morning, andrew >> y >> yes, it does the a little matter of a hugely important economic number, the april employment number coming up your way at 8:30. it's projected 400,000 jobs wered aed last month we have an all-star panel to analyze what it means for your

money as well as the economy we're covering all the bases the stay tuned as we get closer to the big number >> thought we were going to talk about the dow. guess not. first, though, we want to get more contex on yesterday's historic selloff our senior markets commentator this gets confusing. i thought it was santelli, but it's santoli >> people are very apprehensive yesterday and very historic reversal to the downside in terms of the magnitude so we're just about 1% above the interday lows for theiis entire

move you can say we haven't made much down side since the march levels it look like the highs are pretty well stranded here. some of the makeup of yesterday's sell-off has people starting to feel as if the selling intensity reached a kra schenn dough you mentioned the wholesale declines in the big nasdaq stocks so we'll see if that's enough for now. but basically, rates are pressuring stocks right now. yields are going higher, storks are stock are going lower. it's kind of hanging around there. it looks a little more, yeah,

sure resilient. half of all s&p stocks are down at least 20% from their high so it's pretty, that's the biggest pressure point, talking about yields here's yield on the ten-year inflation-protected security so this of course is the real yield. this is after anticipated inflation. and what you see is just above zero right now we've been in this negative real-yield territory for a long time it flattered their valuations for a while. we haven't been solidly positive since 2018 into '19. in one level this is maybe rough news, means the rates are getting toward a neutral spot where it's going to restrain the economy. on the other hand, inflation expectations have not spiked at least based on how these securities are trading in the last few weeks

the problem is more near-term inflation expectations, and that's what the fed has on its plate, joe >> what are ma and pa investors supposed to think? they see wednesday, oh, awesome. and then thursday, it seems like it's just hard to, there's a lot of machines and algorithms >> yeah. >> but that doesn't help in terms of people that are just trying to figure out, do i buy what do i do with my retirement money? am i worried about things when there's volatility like that it doesn't benefit anybody. maybe not as much on a percentage basis, but it is disconcerting. >> it shows you that the market seems to want to seize on a different variable each day to decide which way it's going to go wednesday's reaction was oh, maybe the fed's going to be a little less hawkish than anticipated or feared.

then the next day is oh, they may not have a handle on inflation. it's a changing story constantly volatility in the short term feeds on it eself it's not abnormal. obviously, if that's where it stopped. i guess you'd have to say you want to build a portfolio that can with tastand something like that big picture, it's a relatively narrow path to a soft landing. >> good to have you on happy friday. >> is it a narrow path or is there a path? i think the question is, is there a path at all? meantime, bitcoin getting slammed in the sell-off, suffering its worth drop since january. total market value worth below $700 billion bitcoin now at $35,824, cracking

the $36,000 mark you're looking at the rest of them all off as well for the most part with the exception of ripple there joining us right now is michael novogratz, galaxy founder and ceo. what do you think is really happening here let's talk about the fundamentals, to the extent they're fundamentals but even the way you think this market is moving where are the fault lines at this point >> listen, we not going to get a soft landing when inflation gets as high as it gets, you need to put the economy in a recession to stop inflation. you've got inflation expectations that have become a little unhinged. until i can look my employees in the eye and say you're lucky to have a job, you have to say, would you like salted popcorn or buttered popcorn on the days you come in to work.

it's everywhere, not just in the high-end jobs but all the way through the spectrum until that shifts, until we see layoffs, until we see not 11 million people looking for jobs, you're not going to see inflation come down. so we're going to go through a painful stagflation process. we're in it. what you're seeing now is big liquidation. markets are always ahead of the economy. so you look at the arc fund or some of the big hedge funds that are down that often leads to liquidation. market senses broolood and goeso those positions. as long as the nasdaq and other assets are selling off, crypto won't trade spectacularly well the bright motnote is, it's aman how much institutional capital is starting to line up to come

into the place blackrock, blackstone, citadel, apollo all building major kricrypto efforts. so it's completely intuitive to me that there's a backstop somewhere in crypto. i said earlier in the year i tho thought bitcoin would be 30,000, 50,000 we're edging toward the lower en end of the range that's setup, unfortunately, it's a painful one for most investors. >> 30,000, put your macro trader hat on again for a second. which is to say, and i'm sure you're getting calls like even the last 24 hours, what do i do? what's happening here? p y if you're an investor who cares about where the market may be two or three years from now but

no not necessarily in 12 months you may need the cash in three years from now, four years from now, do you look at this and say this is one of the great buying opportunities of all time? or do you say hold onto that cash because the buying opportunity hasn't even shown itself yet in. >> i think you have to scale in, and you've got to pick your asset class. like crypto's been very correlated to the nasdaq that correlation will overtime break down you've already seen the data of the break down it's gotten closer to the one than the three but i do think there's more pain to come. >> and when you -- >> so i look at the nasdaq i think we can be, you know, within the next few weeks we ca be at 12,000 and then it will bounce and i think the final destination will be somewhere around 10,000. what's different than '08,

different than the covid crisis is the cavalry isn't here. we're going to grind until a new story shows up and then it takes off again. it's not going to be nearly as pleasant to plunge in and buy the low. if you did it during covid, you look like a hero eight weeks later. there's not a lot of hero trades out there. >> and when you say grind, is the this a japanese grind? >> no. the american economy has more vitality if i look at the world of crypto every day, it's awe inspiring. i have no fear over our long or medium-term hold i do have a fear of how much

liquidity drove prices so what happens after the big collapse is you get up and down years, and they're hot small years. you might have up 20%, down 15%. we got used to this amazing ride fueled by cheap money, and that story is over. >> what holds bitcoin at 30,000? if that's your fall line before things get much more complicated. >> i just see buyers everywhere i go, people are getting structured to buy. i mentioned the four big, you know, those are the bedrock firms or four of the bedrock firms of our financial services business and when they're make bing majo efforts, we see it with institutions, with sovereign we wealth funds, and so bitcoin itself provides a really unique asset, and people have bought into that story, and then the

blockchain or web three, like that's happening it's not a story it's a reality so with nfts, all of those systems are being built on every day, and i'm just seeing options. i actually feel great on a medium-term basis about our business, our industry i've opinion saying it non-stop. it's going to be a rough year. >> and mike, what was your thought, i'm sure you saw some of the clips if not the whole thing, warren buffett over the weekend, and maybe not a new comment about it, but he thinks bitcoin is going to zero i think he would, i think, and i think he might say look these financial firms are getting into this space but they also got into spacs and all sorts of funky approaches to a lot of things they didn't believe in to begin with, they just thought there was money to be made

there. >> listen, for every skeptic, i can give you six, ten spectacular investor whose believe in bitcoin so from credit guys to macro guys, there are 100 million people around the world that have bought into bitcoin as a store value. and so i kind of think the debate ended a while ago right abby johnson at fidelity there are people that all buy into bitcoin so yes, charlie munger who's reaching the tail end of his investing career hasn't gotten it yet but i think the preponderance of the evidence is on people that do get it, and as you go younger and younger, it's not even a debate >> how much of this market, of the crypto market this is do you believe is leveraged and that that leverage was used to buy other, either other crypto or nasdaq stocks

effect effectively? >> yeah, listen, there was plenty of leverage most of the asian exchanges were built on that leverage a lot of that leverage was retail so it's a little bit different than what we're seeing in the equity world where a lot of money has been institutional crypto institutional money is really only of the last, you know, 18 months. but there is leverage in the system and what you're seeing is bitcoin and ethereum outperforming all the other coins right now. people go to the safety. so some of those other ecosystems really not blown up on leverage, and those are down 60, 70, 80% already. >> mike, we want to thank you. we've got the jobs numbers coming up. we'll see if there's a goldilocks number in there thank you.

as andrew mentioned, the number of the morning, we are closing in on the april jobs report that will be coming your way at the bottom of the hour, just about 13 minutes away. we'll be all over the data and the market reaction as we get ready for the final session of this wild week on wall treat keep it right here, "squawk box" will be right back what if you were a gigantic snack food maker? and you had to wrestle a massively complex supply chain to satisfy cravings from tokyo to toledo? so you partner with ibm consulting to bring together data and workflows so that every driver and merchandiser can serve up jalapeño, sesame, and chocolate-covered goodness with real-time, data-driven precision. let's create supply chains that have an appetite for performance. ibm. let's create.

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unbeatable internet from xfinity. made to do anything so you can do anything. welcome back to "squawk box. this is cnbc let's get you caught up with some of today's top business stories. boeing is going to be relocating its headquarters from chicago to arlington, virginia. this comes after a previous move from seattle to chicago. it would bring it closer to lawmakers and the u.s. capitol as it works on relationships boeing says it will keep a significant presence chicago and the surrounding area eye company bausch and lomb, the first ipo, high profile, in

months this ipo would value them at $6.3 billion the and peloton is hook looking at selling a sizable minority stake a stake of about 15% to 20% is under consideration. that stock down about 3% >> $89 billion want to hit it up to look at the market cap and highs and lows and stuff. i looked at the news flow. here's the -- >> not a steady drip steady torrent >> avlon says boeing has lost its way. yahoo finance, 13 problems boeing isn't fully recognizing boeing can't seem to do what

airbus can value now less than spacex >> that's a reversal remember when boeing was leading. coming up, the government's april employment report. they're expecting 400,000 jobs we're also watching the shares of under armour. they are down almost 20% after the company reported an unexpected loss for the warquar and gave a disappointing outlook for 2023 "squawk box" is coming right back

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coming up, we've got the april jobs report. that breaking number next. our all-star panel is ready and waiting for predictions and instant analysis stay right here. u' watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc we have that number coming up in just a moment.

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welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. we're a few minutes away from the government's april employment report. let's bring in our jurors panel. sarah malik. austan goolsbee. kn m nila richardson. sarah, let's start with what you think the market is going to be, focussing most closely on, in your view. we only have a minute and a half >> two indicators, labor force

participation for signs of wage inflation and is there any demand destruction we think neither moves the needle from what are you most interested in, nada? >> i would say the labor force participation. we are still ways before we were before the pandemic. we saw some participation of working-age women last month i want to see if that is continuing, and also hourly rage >> austan? >> i think it's not what's in the jobs report but all the stuff happening in the background the fiscal drag, services coming back at a speed we don't know and the balancing act that the fed is trying to do here >> nila, this is the luck of the true when you're done, we can go to the number and hear from liesman and santelli

what's important >> wages it's f it's front and nercenter for everyone in it could be foul is fair, fair is foul if it's too good, neighbor's bb maybe it's bad. the number should be hitting momentarily. >> yes t should, it should be c momentarily. remember, it was in 2000 that the nasdaq first traded over 5,000. it took another 15 years to get back over it after the tech wreck. still don't see the numbers populating yet here we g wo. the unemployment rate moved from 3.6 and stayed at 3.6. so we're still hovering at very lofty levels

3.5 is where we were prior to covid. on the two months of pay rolls, there's a revision of minus 39,000 average hourly earnings on a month over month basis were only up .3. that is a miss if you look year-over-year, they were up 5.5. a nice solid number. and on jobs, 428,000, an even dozen over 400,000 i would have picked 410,000. so i would have been close 406,000 is private pay rolls 55,000, well above expectations on manufacturing, and if we look at the work with week, 34.6. and here we go the labor force participation rate, and it is a miss 62.2, 62.2, down

and where was it pre-covid in february of 2020, it was 63.4 if we look at the underemployment rate, it actually moved up from 6.9 to 7% so many are going to say ah, it's not a great number, but i will continue to say jobs, jobs, jobs, 428,000 isn't bad. my opinion is, it's a good number we haven't seen a lot of volatility in the fixed income markets here the equity premarket opening, definitely has improved. i'll throw it back to you mr. kernen >> we did turn positive, briefly, on the dow. now back negative. the alleis maniacs are waiting >> i want to echo what rick said i was looking for participation rate, the most important thing to me.

it's still good to see 428,000 jobs come through. and it's hard to feel all that bad about the world when we're putting that many people to work i forget what the number is. this is maybe the 12th month in a row we've done plus 400,000. with all the other stuff that's happenings, it's still good that we're putting people back to work we did see the wage number come down a bit i'm just looking, joe, into how we got into the low participation rate i'm interested in how that happened i did see what i thought was good distribution. factory jobs did well. services most of the jobs were private sector whatever else is happening in the economy, and there's a lot of stuff to worry about. a lot of that stuff is down the road, you've still got to be happy. >> nela, you mentioned wages, so what do you think of that number >> i think is tthis is a very sd

report we saw really robust jobs numbers. so the labor force participation of course is concerning, but the pact fact that jobs were able to be added at a steady clip, especially when matched up with the eye-opening productivity declines that we saw this week nal all in all i think this is a fre great report >> austan, if you're depressed about the kcubs or white sox, just remember, could you be from cincinnati >> one of them had to win. >> it's a good day for you what was the highlight of the report >> the highlight of the report,

unless i heard it wrong out here this chicago, liesman began by saying i want to echo what santelli said. what's happening in maybe joe will buy me the dinner he owes me >> we're not there yet >> nothing happened. nothing happened in this report, i don't think, that is going to change the underlying fact so, in a way, it's the goldilocks report, but it's goldilocks in an awful situation. it's not going, the fed is still going to tighten we're still up against this, can we manage a soft landing, how do we balance out the fiscal drag versus the comeback in the durable goods demand that big manufacturing number still makes me a hill worried that we're going off of high consumer spending on physical goods, which we know is going to come to an end when people start shifting back to services.

>> okay, sarah the last should become first in this case first became last industry like the inflation number i think it's a strong economy, but we go ming into cpi next wek we're happy out here because of the warriors, joe. >> yeah. i'm not, we'll see they got that one guy. morantz that you got to worry about. you may do it. it's complicated it wasn't right in front of me so whatdo you make of this >> so i do agree that this is a good report, but i am concerned about the decline in the participation rate we shouldn't read too much into

one month's report, but this is part of the reason we've been seeing pressures on wages. so workers are dropping out, again, i think the pressure on wages could continue and, again, the question is, where is the fed going to end up i'm a bit skeptical that the fed is going to be able to get us to a soft landing and monot cause recession given where we with inflation and unemployment so i think there are some signs that are of concern. maybe the quiet before the storm. >> let's broaden it out. and we're going to go back to nela, and what did you make of the comments wednesday, the 50 basis points, the no 75. are we behind the curve? are we going to land softly? all those things >> yeah, so we won't know, unfortunately, until we're well in the air what the landing looks like and we're just getting started the takeoff looked pretty good,

and then it looked really d turbulent on the incline as we saw yesterday. we're still far away from a meaningful signal that inflation has gone down and i am concerned about the lag effects of things like housing and how that will eventually feeds back into inflation. i think there's an assumption that inflation will go down in a straight line and the fed can pursue a doctrine of gradualism even if it's 50 basis points every meeting. but we flowknow that there's la inflation. and re-boosting it again could cause some more turbulence in the market >> austan, you think jay powell is -- what grade would you give him? i don't mean your university of chicago, ivy league grade of inflation.

>> a real grade. and appreciate your consistency. no inflation, the economy, you want no inflation in the grid. i got to give him an incomplete so far because we have to see how we manage this thing down i think they've been slow. it's totally understandable why, when covid broke out, the worse was not going to happen but we've stayed in a position that we're still waiting as if we were still waiting to see if the worse was going to so i think going back to normal is on path. the question is, as these supply shocks are hitting us, and we've got war in ukraine, et cetera, there is a danger of going too far, if you raise too much too fast you're going to reinvent the

lesson of why tightening into a supply hshock doesn't work >> quickly, austan, should we forgive student loans? >> you know i haven't been that big on blanket forgiveness of loans. >> with what you're charging there, you really get, you know, it just -- >> they get more than their money's worth, joe, and you know it >> are you sfwhback we lost you for a second what about jay powell? there's nothing worse than an incomplete that means that you're just not showing up or something. you should at least be turning in all your homework >> is that a question for me >> yes >> so he didn't show up i would say last year, but i think he is really in a tough bind i think they, i mean, it's the same story everyone's telling.

the fed waited too long. they misread the signs and signals and dug themselves into a hole like i said, i'm skeptical they can get us out of this situation without a recession. the data show that since 1955, the fed hasn't succeeded in cutting inflation appreciably without causing a recession in conditions like we have today. if they do it, that would be, that would be a big feat >> let's see, sarah, did you weigh in i've been jumping all over the place, then i've got to get to steve and rick i think did you give a grade yet >> what we saw wednesday was a relief rally, because the fed took 75 basis points off the table. thursday was a reality check the inflation is driving yields above 3% and now the question is are we going to end up in a recession we still see a path to a soft

landing. because the fed fcan't take ther foot off the gas that would get you to the soft landing. i agree the path is narrowing, but it is still our base case. >> steven, who wants to g o. we couldn't believe steve started by saying something nice about you, rick. >> you gave us one-day reprieve. it was his question that led to the answer of 75 off the table but therein lies the conundrum if many of us believe that the fed has been really late to the fix-it-up party, why does it matter what they take off the table in the end, it's all about the markets. first of all, balance sheet. the markets follow the balance sheet. and the markets have been early on this one, miningeaning look t

t-bills. the fed's going too slow the same could be said for the balance sheet issue. the balance sheet issues are being priced in now in my opinion. when balance sheets start to drain the stock market seems to follow it's a little bit of head of schedule so we need to pay close attention to that. in the final analysis. if you're looking at inflation, i think one of the guests said they think it's probably going to remain sticky i think it's the rate of change, and the american public is not stupid, meaning it's going to certainly quit going up as fast as it is but prices are not and i underscore, are not going back to where they were. you need months and months and months of minus signs. don't think you're going to get months and months of those and on the other data with regard to this jobs report, i would say that the rest of the world's in much worse shape than us i think it's really funny when i see the eurozone debating about what to do with oil and gas and

putin's somewhere watching it. it just seems really wired he's holding the switch. he can do it anytime he wants. and if there's one word about what the future of the economy looks like down the road, it's about the cost of energy if people want to keep energy prices high and the governments want to have secret meetings about really not being that enamored with fossil fuel at this point in history then we're doomed to slower economies down the road period >> you heard me say ivy league and university of chicago. you didn't think i was saying were you an ivy league school. >> now the knives come out, huh, joe? >> i have someone very pridoud f her ivy league education cal tech, none of them are, but even an old guy, i can remember which seven actually are you know what i can't name, though the seven sisters, like

radcliff, smith, you remember those? >> you should just stop, joe, you're going to get yourself in trouble. >> steve, rick was nice, he didn't throw down. he complimented you on your question >> no, no, no. i'm good i just want to say i think powell may at this point may need to do something to get in front of this. on balance, the answer to the question of whether you do 75 and taking it off the table, if you net it all out, i think it was probably a mistake i'm trying to work my way through what it would have been if we were leading our post press conference coverage with powell leaves 75 on the table. would the market have been any bet are off? perhaps the bond market would have been better off it's been the bond market combined with what powell said and the bank of england taking something of a muted response to its inflation problem, really, it's unhinged the long end of the market, and i think powell's

going to have to get control of that before the, the equity pl market can tabstabilize. it may be that what needs to happen is a little short-term pain he's not done that yet i ha he has sort of led the market hire higher >> thanks to our jobs panel. ivy, were there four to start? and then it became seven and andrew >> what do i look like the ivy league historian university of chicago. >> can we do a dow switch? you know how the 30 dow components keep switching? >> yeah. >> i'm thinking -- >> look, don't lump me in with

your elitist friends i'm out here in the heartland trying to keep it real >> go big red. of course. gets better every year >> okay. brown, columbia stay you got to keep yale, harvard, penn and clemson >> i don't think you're going to be able to take anybody out. the question is whether you want to add them in >> maybe add like they do in the football conferences >> joe, you're against that with the supreme court, so i don't know >> i know you're not, especially now. how many, you know, i think it hud be like the house of representatives. 450 plus or so >> 435 >> whatever, thank you we're solving a lot of problems of the world >> a lot of big problems today coming up when we return, we'll get his take on the problem of the morning, which is the market jim cramer's take on the mu jobs

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join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential. welcome back to squawk talk to jim cramer right now about this employment number and what you think it means. is this a goldilocks number?

if you're the market today, what do you think >> i don't want to necessary disagree with the narrative of two days ago, i look at this number and think, why did he take 75 off the table? this is a number where it's made for 75 they got a -- they got to keep rolling here they got to get them up. by the way, the bank of england, talked about out of -- how to stop inflation is with inflation. the people who run the central banks, i think they are oblivious to how strong these economies are. and they really got to -- they've got to slow them down. they have to and i think they have to slow them down now. but i just don't see it happening. not with these -- >> jim -- >> you got to take some big bites. >> for everybody who is watching this morning who is trying to figure out what they should be doing with their money in this market given the falloff that we saw yesterday, are you -- it

sounds like you're very bearish. do you want to hold in this market >> there's a percentage of this market, a large percentage of this market that are companies that are losing money that are growing. but they're not going to get to the promised land because they're losing so much money and they have to be avoided at all costs. and then there are companies like cigna that reported a great number so i mean, if you buy companies right now, if you buy shares of companies that make things and do stuff, that return capital to shareholders and are profitable, you will make money. but the universe of those companies shrinks. look, the s&p is, what, up this week the s&p has a lot of companies that actually do that. the nasdaq, no russell 1000, no people have to -- >> jim, what do you do -- there's folks who are looking at the nasdaq right now and says, it looks beaten down on a relative basis relative to alice in wonderland

might not be a great relatively. >> are the companies doing well? are they valued at a reasonable price? are they returning capital or are they doing some adjust in ebita that shows they're only losing "x" when people thought they were losing two "x. >> bingo that's the case. when you look at the nasdaq today, you say this is not fair value, this has more to go >> no, i mean, look, shopify on last night that's a great company and its stock price is almost to where it was january 3rd 2020. almost not there yet. got to go down more. in the meantime, they're spending a lot of money. they're not making a lot of money. that's not what i want i've got plenty of companies that are doing well that have good yields that are becoming great yields because the market is going down, accidental high yielders, and you can buy those like you can buy them in 2008. even in 2008 you could buy those companies. but you have to be very careful.

you have to buy companies that may be here next year, not companies that beat the bogus expectations by three cents and only lost 32 cents instead of 38 cents. that's what you can't touch, andrew you cannot touch them. you can't. just think, do you like toast with your lemonade >> jim cramer, always appreciate getting your perspective we're going to be listening to a lot more of what you have to say at 9:00 a.m. this morning. and you can check out jim's investment club as well over at cnbc.com thank you, sir >> thank you. quick correction to the record -- >> people at cornell are mad dartmouth, great place, great school is the university of colorado a possible addition? >> no. m m.i.t. is close though the futures are picking up before dropping back down to --

worse than we were dow futures down by 130 points joining us right now to talk the markets and the volatile moves we've seen this week is jim paulsen. jim, what do you think this is normally a situation where i would expect you to be a calming voice, but things are a little hairier than they have been are we done yet? >> yeah, it's nerve-racking. there's no doubt about that. we're playing with a lot of technicals here. we'll see if they lose support or not, becky. i'm worried about that too but i -- i'm still a bull. i think that this is a correction that we knew was going to come in this recovery at some point. and after the run we had, we probably knew it was going to be a nasty one and scary one and that's what we got going and i think it's a good time to buy into this, even if it does go lower for a little while.

i think it will be higher before the year is out. you know, this all comes down to inflation rate all the worries we have are tied to that in my view, becky. if inflation moderates will quick worrying about how high yields have to go or how much the fed has to tighten or a policy mistake or where we're going to have a recession, a lot of those things will calm down and i think, you know, today's page number again at 5.5%, that makes it six months in a row where there's been no acceleration in wage inflation in this country. and also the labor force has grown at a 3% analyzed pace in the last six months which is wonderful. today we created 428,000 payroll jobs without lowering the unemployment rate. we're showing some supply side capacity showing up. so i think, i think the tightening is going to slow demand and supply is responding. if inflation moderates, i think

it's a great entry point here of six months made for the stock market >> i sense that you're feeling a little more nervous yourself, though, too, just admitting this may not be the bottom. there could be more pain to come you're not strident in your remarks. >> i do, becky i feel nervous we've got a technical support -- i thought we maybe bottomed out earlier in march and now we're back down here revisiting again. on the one hand we revisited this area five or six times. i'm not sure we'll stay there a long time, becky no one is going to time this all right. i'm certainly not. and i do think that when i look ahead to the end of the year, we'll be at a fairly higher level than we are today, even if we go lower in the interim even rates, i think it's very encouraging that the two-year yield is no longer pushing up

the ten-year the ten-year went above 3% yesterday. but the two year yield is still where it was, 11, 12 trading days ago it did not go to new highs yesterday. it was pushing up longer yields. i think maybe a lot of the yield curve, one year at 2%, the two year at 2 and three quarters, is starting to get comfortable where it's priced relative to what the fed is going to do in the next several months. that's a good sign that maybe the rate rout is pausing and it could start to calm down anxieties right now. if they calm, i think there's a lot of upside given the earnings estimates keep climbing. >> we're looking at the ten-year right now, actually above 3% above 3.1% and that's an official number for that at this point earlier today, he heard it's headed to 3.5% immediately

how about you? >> i think we're closer to a pause. i think we're going to see the ten-year probably reach 4% but i'm not so sure that's going to happen real soon. we're closer to a pause than we are continued escalation we've had a continued escalation, and i think it's going to be more likely that we're headed for a pause i think the job numbers today are very comforting and i think that we're seeing more inflation evidence as commodity prices flatten out for more than two months the two-year break even rate was 5% in late march it's 4%. the two-year yield is starting to roll over to inflation expectation. there's good signs that i think will slow the bond market. >> jim paulsen, nervous bull today. but a bull nonetheless it's good to see you, jim. >> thanks. i feel a little like a sacrificial bull today. >> you might be. there is some blood in the

markets and blood in the streets. dow futures now indicated off by 170 points again, after a decline of more than 1,000 points yesterday. s&p 500 futures are off by 28 and the nasdaq down by 122 we've got a lot of ground to cover the rest of the day. that does it for us today. right now it's time for "squawk on the street. ♪ good morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer futures are wobbly following the jobs number for april. 428,000 is ahead of estimates. wages is up. we're going to start with the market's wild ride a day after that major sell-off resulting i the dow dropping yesterday's moves erasing the big gains from wednesday's fed-fueled