gains are the behind us. so we see inflation coming off -- and ultimately our view is that will keep the fed pretty much on track with their dots. all right. katie, appreciate your time. you have a great weekend we will see what this market has in store next week i'll see you then. "fast money" is now >> on "fast," say a heart stopping trip that took us almost back to where we started the week so what did we learn and where do we go from here those are the questions we are going to tackle. plus, after a wild week, traders are putting together their week ahead watch list from semis to apple to interest rates and more we will find out what's on their radar. and later the chart of the week. a shopping behemoth that dropped 7% this week and over 30% this year see if you can guess it, the name and where it's headed is

next i'm tyler mathisen in for medicalist a lee this is "fast money" in the heart of times square. on the desk tonight brian kelly, steve grass owe, jeff mills and guy adami. bumble i am so lonely here at this big desk where i haven't been in two years. you all are home inyour places i wish you were here where i could see your bright shining faces. let's begin wthe woke with the bruising week we had where we almost ended up exactly where we started on the dow and s&p but there were a lot of bumps along the way. meanwhile, for tech the selling was nor pronounced the nasdaq falling more than 6% the last two days. the question is where do we go from here? guy, what do you think >> i miss you, tyler as you know, so lonely a great song by the police you need to call the bond police

because that's driving everything right now you are asking the question where do we go from here i think we can continue to go lower. i don't think it's over yet. i don't feel any panic -you know, steve is there, has said 3,700 i think 3750 it's a rounding error in terms of where we think it's going i'll say this. in terms of valuation, you put a 17 multiple on the $225-ish of s&p earnings and that makes a lot of sense to me. >> steve, since he mentioned your name, you have been saying down lower on the s&p, what do you think? >> yeah, i think that's right. i think 3,800 is where i'm focused in on. i have been talking about that level. i think if you look at where we're at in the s&p cash and where we came from around that 4,800 level, we still have some more wood to chop. everyone is focused on 4,000 that means to me that it's wrong, tyler so the big fat round number, the

big fat round numbers is where everyone wants to put their chips. usually that means that we can overshoot those levels so a lot of this stuff is done through electronic trading lent electronics don't have the feeling of a human being they can overshoot for me it's 3,800. but that could be a take a look and see to see if you get some support at that level. so i agree with guy. i think we can go lower. you sort of have to hold on to some dry powder and see where the chips might fall once we get there. >> you know, on wednesday we heard from chair powell that they weren't even talking about potentially doing a three quarters of a point cut and it seemed that day that everybody cheered that that was the best news of the day. it's off the table it's not being discussed then thursday we see the market reacts very, very differently

and today in the last hour, scott wapner talks to mr. tepper and he said, boy, that was a blunder taking 75 basis points off the table. they are boxed in now. they have got a credibility problem. and that's why the market is stumbling the way it is. so what do you think of what tepper said, number one? and number two, how do we go from euphoria on wednesday over the idea that the fed is taking this number off the table to despair on thursday and friday about it >> yeah, well, geez, you got couple hours there is a lot in what just asked me let's start with whether or not the fed is boxed in. powell made a mistake. he shouldn't have said it. it's easy to walk that back. we saw it coming today some of the fed governors out there said listen, i would be up for a 75 basis point so, yeah, it was a mistake i don't think it was disastrous. i think there are other things going on on wednesday we were on the

desk, we talked about why was there a rally? the rally in my view only made sense if you thought about it this way if you were short this market thinking that you are going to get 75 basis points in june, then when they take that off the table for the time being the odds of 75 basis points came down, that triggers short covering that's all that was. then the reality set in. we had the bank of england said we are going have a recession. you had interest rates here in the u.s. start to move higher. you had oil prices move higher and it all just started to fall down so i don't think -- i won't think all of the market was cheering anything on wednesday it was a mechanical short covering in a market that the liquidity isn't that great. >> jeff mills, this sell-off feels sort of texturely, the texture of it feels different than recent sell-offs that we've lived there whether it was the spring of 2020, which was steep and sharp and a fast reversal

moving back up, or sell-offs that the fall of 2018 when interest rates were rising or the sell-off in the summer of 2011 when things came back fairly fast. this feels like, i'm going to go back to what guy said and steve said, that we're not done yet with this sell-off and that the return, the return trip is going to look different, too what do you say? >> yeah, this is more your typical bear market sell-off you get big up days and big down daresst days, one step forward, two steps back i feel like that's what we've been used to over a longer time period 2020 very different. 2018 very different. i said it's indig tv of a market that doesn't know where to put multiples on a lot the growth stocks that are high percentages of these indexes i sent in a chart. it's not perfect i think it gives you a little bit of a guide as to where we are from a

valuation perspective because pes is the most important thing right now. it's a very simple chart it's just the pe of the triple qs against the ten-year treasury and the ten-year is inverted on the chart. in turns2020 pe ratios fall and interest rates fell. pe ratios slung back the opposite direction and huge multiple expansion we are seeing the opposite said. we have seen a re-rating of multiple in the qqqs but rates have risen there is more to catch up on the downside from a valuation stand point. the last thing i'll say which is interesting a lot of these stocks that outperformed, have been the cyclicals, because growth is getting punished th look at the charts of all of these stocks they are now all testing various support levels because i think what you are going to see is the economy is slow, you are going to see interest rates peak and then i actually think growth

stocks, quality growth stocks with real earnings, real cash flow end up being the trade between found the end of the year if you have to be long and you are thinking about how you want to be positioned, you want to be moving in that direction, buying that weakness. >> quality growth stocks, he says, guy. i heard a comment on scott's earlier show, the noon "halftime report," you have heard of that show, right, guy >> mm-hmm very familiar with it, yes. >> i heard someone that this time around don't -- you have to change your playbook don't look to the old market heroes to be the leaders of whatever comeback we have whenever we have it, that the leaders may -- that the leadership of the next round up, when it comes, won't be the classic, the apples, the alphabets, the facebooks you have got to rethink that do you agree with that >> well, it's interesting. if you look at amazon for

example, it's not like it traded particularly well. look over the last year and a half google as well it's not traded particularly well so in a lot of ways the argument has been made for you in terms of the way those stocks behaved. there will be new leadership i am convinced that energy has been the leadership, obviously, not a huge portion of the s&p but it can be continue to be leadership so, yeah, you've got to change the playbook if green bay packers won a lot of super bowls with bart starr running four plays the league caught up to him. i think that happened here in the broader market rkt the best teams, most memorable teams of my lifetime, i got to say. since you brought up energy, the top performing sector yet again today pushed higher by big moves in nat gas and crude and today the only names, the only ones in the s&p to hit new highs, conocophillips, pioneer, occi

petroleum. >> hello let's run through some of those numbers. u.s. oil gains up 5% and hovering around 110. natural gas the highest since august 2008 this morning the contract did ultimately reverse the gains but it's around 8 bucks and rose 10% on the week for the year now up 113% one area that's really come into focus recently is diesel with prices hitting new highs the u.s.'s refining capacity has fallen in recent years, especially on the east coast, and now europe is also fighting for these products diesel has been called the workhorse of the economy since it powers tankers, trains, trucks, planes this is adding to inflation concerns across the economy. and take a look at this chart which shows retail diesel prices which have hit a new record every day this week.

$5.51 according to aaa. >> wow let's trade this who wants to jump in here? b. bk, what would you you be doing in the energy sector >> yeah, it's the refiners every name you mentioned out there is the ones that are benefiting from this not only is the spread to make diesel increased, but also gasoline remember this is the time of year a lot of refineries switch from diesel to gasoline for the summer driving season and what they are doing is they are tooley delaying that switch to produce more diesel. that's going to make the spread on gasoline coming into the summer even wider. so i think you have got some runway on all of the refiners you just mentioned. >> how about you, steve, what do you think? >> yeah, i think this is sort of toppy for me a lot toppy for me jpmorgan talked about $175 a barrel of crude. i think with the headline coming out now that the u.s. has to

replenish the strategic oil petroleum reserve, i think that all says to me that even though b.k. brings up a great point about peak driving season, i think we have seen the worst for crude as far as spiking. so i think you want to be a seller of these. if you think of the market rallying again, energy is too small of a percentage to move the needle the market can continue to go down with energy actually going up i think energy has plateaued >> so you think energy -- the run up in energy shares is largely played and the as is the run up in the price of oil >> yes i think that come year end we will see $65 for a barrel of oil and you have to remember something, tyler we are going into midterm elections. and i know that this administration does not like fossil fuels, but in order for them to win on -- in the

midterms, the democratic side, the price of gasoline has to be lower. the price of oil has to be lower. and politics makes for strange bedfellows. >> and inflation has to be headed down and we haven't yet seen, by the way, the kind of food price inflation that may be coming our way guy, what do you think do you see $65 barrel oil by the year end >> listen, a lot can happen. i will be 75 at the end of this year i'll probably forget about what i said five minutes ago. i will say this. i think crude grinds higher. the fact that we trade today 94 and were able to bounce quietly, i don't think the crude trade is over and the supply demand fundamentals line up a lot of people point to russia and ukraine as the catalyst. maybe. what i said is the seeds were sown for this long before anybody was talking about russia and ukraine. i think crude grinds higher.

i think the refiners have been the trade, valero makes highs seemingly every day and flphills 66 continue to do the grind as well i wouldn't count on oil just yet. >> we will take a pause. the week ahead watch list. traders are going to parse through the noise and pinpoint the most important in the health of the economy later our chart of the week delivering serious losses to investors. whoops, that was a clue. ren atra aadn "fast money. last a lifetime. some bonds inspire confidence, and some you grow to rely on. these are the bonds worth investing in. for over 50 years, pimco has reinvented fixed income to create opportunities for investors in every market environment. so, no matter what happens you can build the bonds that mean the most to you.

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comcast business. powering possibilities.™ welcome back to "fast money. the street brace ago for another wild week next week. earnings season resumes. investors get key inflation data what is on our traders week ahead watch list steve grass owe, you go first. >> yeah, i always look at initial job list claims. i looked at this for my whole career it's one of the few leading indicators in the pack of economic looks that we get from the government and now just think about what we have been talking about for the last quarter

inflation. this is going to give us an insight into how the fed sees inflation, are they really knocking down inflation mentally and what that number really looks like so paying close attention to it, especially in the environment that we're in currently. >> b.k., what's your -- what are you going to have your eyes on next week apart from inflation you can't choose the same thing that steve just did. >> i can't i can't. yes, i take the derivative of that, interest rates one component is the inflation expectation and what we saw this week was when the 30 and ten-year bonds started to sell off, roller skates going higher, that's when the markets started to tank. i'm watching ten-year rates like a hawk for any indication one of two ways either they will go higher or the bleeding has stopped and maybe things have stabilized. >> yeah, and i think what was the ten-year today 3.12 i think the highest since 2018 back in november of that year.

jeff mills, what have you got your eye on for next week? >> i know everybody wants to know what the market is going to do in the short term whenever you are talking about that it's all about price action, all about technicals that's going to tell the tale to let you know if a rally is real, if it's not and maybe the two prices that matter the most in my mind are apple and microsoft. will they save the day so far they sort of have they are 13% of the s&p 500 but now they are testing very interesting technical levels apple in particular sort of having the battle of its life with that upward sloping line from october 2020. we will see what happens there for context, you know, where could the stocks move and what might that do to the index from a valuation perspective, if these stocks give back half of their valuation premium relative to their average, retrace about 50% of their pe multiples, 10% down for microsoft, 17% down for apple, will they get there i don't know that's a reasonable reference

point for those two that i think will break. >> watch apple and microsoft, says jeff. how about you, guy >> well, i'll be watching you every day next week. >> thank you. >> because that's what i do, tyler. >> thank you. >> a little more granular, semiconductors you know, the smh, some of these semi names, so much pull forward. they have not traded particularly well. amd has been cut in half since its all-time high. nvidia not trading well. you need stabilization in the semis. so i will be watching the semiconductors, tyler. >> i am going to close this block with a quick question, quick answer, jeff mills if i am scared, is it too late for me to sell >> the answer is generally yes and my simple answer, and this is real advice, you don't want to have to be smart twice. you've got to get out and you

have to get back in. and i can't tell you how many people look smart in 2008, look smart in 2020, never got back in, missed out on a lot. you have 50% of the s&p down 20% or more. it's a hard game to play. >> thanks. coming up, a major retailer posts big losses this week so is this name primed there is another clue. i got to stop doing that prime to pop and later on "options action," looking at gold after a big week of volatility. that trade ahead stick around refa meyinwoinesmo "ston" t mut time

♪ chart of the week. welcome back to "fast money.

time to reveal it. it is amazon down more than 7.5% this week. whopping 31% so far this year. the stock losing more than half a trillion dollars in market cap. that's the size of more than two costcos, three times the size of a nike steve, you recently bought amazon >> yeah. so when i look at the chart on amazon, there is none of that can be denied. they announced a stock split, 24/1 stock split usually is bought it got so brought into the sell-off of growth and the whole sell-off of overvalued stocks during the pandemic, the stock went from 2,800 to 22 and change for me a 20% decline off of when they announced the stock split was enough for me to dip my toe. i think you might have seen the worst of the sell-off, even if

the market comes in, i think your downside is limited of course, it go-go further. but amazon web services, 36% with margins around 35%. $10 billion buyback. don't focus on e-commerce. the thing that got this story going was aws and that started when the stock was $190. >> guy, what is your thought on amazon we talked on the 2:00 program about valuations and if you look at the forward multiple on amazon it's still triple digits. >> still expensive in terms of absolute -- listen, yes, it's expensive. not as much as at its zenith a lot of people would have begged to buy at 2,800 now you have this opportunity here if you have a long term horizon like steve does, maybe another 7, 8% to the downside, but you

have been begging tfor this for to so long b now it's here. i think now is the time. >> all right there you go there is the call on amazon. around the horn. time for the final trade b.k., you get to go first this time what's your final? >> comment lent. a name that held up well is campbell's pork and beans, cpb a nice dividend as well. >> steve, your last shot >> so when i was looking at buying something today on this on a down take it was amazon or tesla. i think shanghai is getting better for tesla and i also think that with the twitter proposed purchase of elon musk people were overestimating how much tesla stock he had to sell. i think we are get some clarity there. i think tesla is actually a buy here, although as guy said before, maybe have a little bit more room to the downside.

>> jeff, you're next >> i take a look at disney i don't know that i would buy it into earnings. netflix report makes me nervous about streaming. that looks like big time support to me. >> guy, we got about 20 seconds. >> well, tyler, you know i dig you. i miss you i love to be there with you. you know what? it's always an honor to have cnbc royalty host apa corp next week. >> all right thank you, guys. that's it for "fast money. option"options action" is next u. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire (dad allen) you know when you see a great deal on a phone, and then realize it's not for you? not at verizon. matching your job description. (mom allen) yep, they just gave us all a brand new iphone 13. (dad allen) we've been customers for years. (dad brown) i thought new phones were for new customers? we got iphone 13s, too. switched to verizon 2 minutes ago.

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hey, everybody good afternoon welcome to options action. i'm tyler mathisen in for melissa lee. joined by carter werth, mike co, tony jiang welcome. another red day on wall street nowhere near as red as it was midday or late morning, but it finished off the lows of the day after a wild week. here is where we ended the dow and the s&p virtually unchanged for the week the nasdaq down 1.5% we got wild swings every day, carter what do you make of the action, number one