probably fwichb me more of a loss i wanted to incur >> i'm doubling down >> you're just doing that to be provocative. all right. i with will see you tonight on fast "the exchange" with kelly evans befwinz right now. thank you, melissa welcome to "the exchange." and as you know there's no letup from the sell issing pressure today. the 10 year soaring to 3%. the gasoline dropping to record highs and all of this with key inflation ratings in the days ahead. our market's are stuck until powell gets aggressive we have a bunch of different stock picks to go through. plus, financials are dropping.

should you still be banking on the trade taking off, says one of the guests. and we've got a beaten down pandemic name and sgo-week lows. we're going to preview three big names ahead in earnings exchange and to the very latest on these markets, bob >> and bottom line is we're not at the lows but not far from lows and 52-weekicize where we're at. s&p 500, the old low is 4061, may a year ago we look to close at a 52-week low. remember it harls a vaev r 7 year down and tech's moving a

little worse than the overall market consumer staples holding up right now. if you look at mega cap tech, down but roughly in line with the markets. but some of the tech names nvidia's down 6% apple's about 15/16% off its two big-week highs there's a bifurcation between the bigger cap tech here this has been going on for weeks now. coinbase was $400 a year ago when it was going public if you look at the down side leaders, it proportionately goes and on the down side free port is 25% off its recent highs. finally, there's a little bit of hiding in the consumer staples 52-week highs in campbell soup and kellogg's at a 52-week high.

and all out performing dramatically in the last five or six trading sessions >> fed chair powell may have signalled the 75-basis point hike won't happen anytime soon richmond says thomas quote, i never rule anything out. so i think anything would be on the table. he's not a voting member, fyi. and "i think we can stay at this pace and really see how the markets evolve." again, not a voter and of the min minneapolis fed >> i am confident we're going to get inflation down to the 2% target but not sure how much we're going to have to carry before getting in on the supply side. >> let's welcome in professor of

economics at stan sfrd if john taylor,. >> it's good they moved last week a bit but by all calculations the inflation rate is higher than corresponding interest etrates i think if they do it in the kind of way mentioned, 50 basis points and maybe more than that. i think we're at 2% the end of the year should be the right direction. we're not there yet and that's the question the move is maind ay a here as -- hasn't this been just as damaging releasing 75 basis points has unleashed havoc in the market? >> i think the fed is committed

to getting up to what they think is neutral that said, we don't know for sure if that's neutral our own analysis suggests we need to get to 3.5% plus you don't know how much the run off will have in tightening monetary condishes and so does the fed and we've already seen mortgage rates move up more rapidlyen the the 10-year treasury they haven't taken that off the table yet either we're if wing to see a lot of evolution in what the fed does you're going to have to see an increase above 5% before inflation settles down to 2% you're seeing a hard landing

no matter how you get there. it may be where we slowly get there or more rapidly. and they're not sure about what the exfrnl shocks are going to be or on the supply side as well >> i always think of you as more balanced, and you are. so, to hear you say we have to get the unemployment rate up to 5% is shocking to me is that what you think is being price ared in the markets? because we're talking about an increase to the current unemployment rate to what you think is necessary that has never happened without a recession. >> it's going to be quite difficult. and when the fed chairman says there's a path that theoretically could get to where are demand and supply magically meet, there's a path it could han and i would argue unpaved

and full of pot holes. it's kind of akin to driving with the rearview mirror without any cameras in the back of the car. you don't know what kind of obstacles you're going to hit. this is using both levers together in theal balance sheet. no longer paint drying in the background as we saw previously. our issue is 11.6 million job openings when the fed wants it closer to 1 bit 1, hard to get there ease heal without a risession. >> markets basically pushed back and said you're putting the wrong priority forward and we're not going to give you the priority it is you seek. it's almost as if they're saying tell us you're going to do what dianne's describing and not

blinkb with no matter what that means for the conomy >> i agree with that completely. the fed needs to indicate what it needs to do and if it's still below any neutral rate, that's not going to be nice by any calculation. that means they have the ability to slow the inflation rate it needs to be forward looking, explain what it's after. we have a big conference on friday and so many people were saying the fed is behind the curve. let's get back let's explain how we're doing it and i think that's key at least 3% by the end of the year but it probably will require more >> you said your own rule implies they need to be at level

of 5%. just say what you said a moment ago one more time. you think there's a window for them to not cause that much more dam snj and what do they need say to pull that off o it neetsd be pronounced, discussed. they're working on that for sure and you're right and you get 5% that's why i say get to 3% and this year it may be required more than that i think that's the key that's why i like rules and strategy so much and it's not skrus the fed, by the way. this is a global issue communicating in central banks is important and the more communication, the better and least harmful it will

be >> do they need to put 75 basis points explicit laeback on the table? >> i wouldent be so specific as that but if they did it in the right way, it would be fine. the rules and strategies have never been so far off as they are now. just getting back to these rules and strategies will be what is needed to have if you like a hard or a soft landing >> we appreciate your thoughts and the dow down 556 points and the nasdaq down almost that much my next guest is turning to global dividend players to find value. president and ceo of thornberg investment management.

reaction to what you just heard there? what is the overall -- i don't know if advice is the right term but tell them why they need to bother being tin the market righ now. >> going back to neal this morning. the finish of the statement is we don't know how much help we're getting on the supply side, which means more needs to be done on the demand side and that means slowing the economy. this is really the back drop we're talking about. investors need to be invested in the context of having some element of growth over time. but this is -- make no mistake, this is going to be an extremely volatile environment with the support of liquidity and monetary policy being removed from the market place. >> let's talk about the specific place you like i with would say some are

dividend players you have, in technology, games like sap and visa. capitol one and j.p. morgan. >> first of all, all of this together, these are portfolio-level conversations. what we've seen is investors pushing all the money in on just one answer whether it's large cap tech or whatever it may be they got over indexed to the growth that's important but if you're over indexed, you can't shift easily if you're down asap is a great example of some balance. so -- but it's a cheap tech name and really a global company. so, it does have a nice dividend as investors shift from the multiples on revenue to net income to balance sheet, you're going to want to look for those

stronger in the latter two and s&p is more. >> again, i mean, dividend's a moving target, not just because of stock prices but because of bond yields. >> and bonds, high-quality fixed income looks more attractive what wreev are seen is real rates rising as fast as they did in the taper tantrum and prior to that, there's no other time where it was quicker. and they have out fur formed and those have dividends it's not an either or question both sides are protected >> i throw in the towel.

we're being driven at this point by sentiment, as much as fundamentals and everyone should prepare for a time of hauler volatility. wore in a market regime change less liquidity this is all happening in real time so, we're shifting and the great thing is investors are finding today opportunities for the medium to long term and that's what we're focussed on >> it's only when you're going home, i don't know maybe i should find something else to do >> believe me, everybody's got those days that's for are sure. >> jason, thanks for your time good to see you. still ahead, energy prices are sliding along with the broader market but not before pump prices jumped ahead of

recareered levels in the weekend. we'll speak to one energy portfolio manager next simon property group are down from their recent highs. peloton up 90% the action, the story when the trade in all three in earnings exchange here's a quick look at the dow down one and three-quarters of a percent. s&p is above the 4,000 level right now. we're going to have more on that later. 28% off its highs. back in a moment

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welcome back, everybody. energy stocks are sliding across the board. marathon, apa, some leading the decline. marathon is down almost 12%. the whole sector is up 40% this year it's one of only two sectors still in the green so, today's pullback a chance to go bargain hunting our next guest brings six picks he likes rob at tortoise capital the one thing to point out is it's not like the oil prices are are back 70 or $80 a barrel. we're where we are before the

massive release. and yet the sell off tells you how much anxiety there is about recession in the market. >> i think there's probably profit taking as you highlight the sector's been up quite high relative to other sectors this year your concerns about the economy slowing and both global and domestically can drive energy stock on a day-to-day basis. and a lot of people talk about it on your program there's a lot of dividend yields coming at it energy's essential to everything we do in your life and not going to go away anytime soon. >> i mean, i know you have picks but -- especially days like this, where you have indiscriminate sell offs, if you're sitting at home, go buy these three or four names right

now? >> when we look at what's going to steer the global energy sector going forward, it's energy security and decarbonization. classic example of a stock that fits both of those energy security. they transport liquefied natural gas all over the world 60% went to europe that's helping improve energy security and transporting natural gas why is it decarbonizing? emitts 50% less emissions. and this is what we like in the particular environment high income securities are important. end bridge is the largest pipeline operator in north america. they have is a 6% dividend yield and operates big infrafrustructure project. you need to use existing

infrastructure they're going to be able to decarbonize, whether it's through carbon and in the meantime, you're going to get a nice dividend while it continues its carbon footprint >> and i see here eqt, pioneer, pxd, shell and chevron where's exxon on the list? >> exxon's a great stock too all the energy stocks. if you think about it, it's hard to find any company at s&p 500 that are grazing guidance and meeting their guidance most are lowering guidance base aically the entire energy sector is raising guidance for 2022 but we like shell and, in particular chevron a little bit better based on valuation and

because of the yu yufrs and things like renewable fuels, sequestration as well. >> we'll leave it there as this is not the last time we're going to talk about this good to have you on. thank you. still ahead, shares of rivian are going to an all-time low. let's also check on the dow heat map. only a handful are in the green but there are a few. a lot of the staples names walmart, amazon. 3 m, home depott one of your worst performers, chevron and boeing ar

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welcome back to "the exchange" right now. the dow low with a minus 653 we're still about 100 points off that level but feeling heavy at the 1:00 hour. the s&p down about -- 14 or 15 points above 4,000 and the nasdaq is down 3.5%. energy is the worst performing sector it's been the best all year, followed by tech, real estate, consumer discretionary only one iis in the green and we'll get to that in a moment. rivian plunging to an all-time low as ford and others begin to unload some of their shares. and rivian expected to reported first quarter results after the bell on thursday the positive sector today is

consumer staples those safety plays campbell soup, clorox even and general mills up 2 or 3% and clorox had a tougher pandemic hang over but these are the places people are going to hide >> hi, kelly >> the president of the european counsel is the latest western with leader to visit the country to show support. it toured odesa with ukraine's prime minister and saw a building damaged by shelling a senior u.s. defense official again characterized russia's military efforts as incremental and somewhat anemic. the prime minister of sri lanka has resigned after weeks of protest. this was set on fire after those unhappy with the worst economic crisis in decades. they want the company's president out too.

he is the prime minister's brother. and in boston, celebrity chef mario batali arrived for the first day in trial connected to a 2017 allegation of sexual misconduct while taking a selfie with a female. batali's waved his right to a jury trial a municipal court judge will decide the case. tonight how new york state is getting ready for a post-roe america. 7:00 eastern time. >> thank you very much see you then still ahead three names getting ready to report, including peloton. the short-term options are implying a move. and we have all the keepings you need know in earnings exchange next ve and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price,

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welcome back, everybody. time for earnings exchange we still have big names set to report, like disney on wednesday. let's look at the action, story and trade on three companies with results on deck in the next

24 hours and we'll start with xpo logistics. those share ises hitting a 52-week low today. and the proxy for spending as well as insight into cost or labor head winds and with our trades today, founder and ceo and cnbc contributor frank, what will you be watching >> first is eps. they're forecasted to climb 46% year over year by analysts but this follows a long string of transportation companies beating estimates. and the second thing to watch here, what they're going to keep and what they plan to spin off they're planning to keep the less than truckload trucking segment. so, the question is what are the revenues and what is the margin? and the plan to spin off what's the performance of that

like right now they're going to watch both because right before you spin off something, your stock is about to trade i spoke to ceo and chairman, brad jacobs and he believes it's unvalued as a conglomerate and believes it's going to unlock a lot of value for the stock >> is xpo at 52-week lows because of macro or micro, labor pressures and cost issues? i know it can be both but what's the narrative? >> it's really macro because things don't line up to what you're seeing out there. we talk about a rate reis session because rates were going down rates were actually negative, down 10% over what they were 2021 and up double digits from 2019 what kind of performance is xpo

going to give out. and if you look at trends, they're going to beat the estimates but the question is by how much and how does the market respond? >> what would you do with the stock? >> thanks for having me. if you're holding the stock i think you hold and frank is right about mentioning the macro level environment we're seeing we're seeing consumers spend so, you want to be careful as far as what companies are invested in. and strong priegs pow wr the customers. their volume, they're able to increase top line with that pricing power and their less than truckload segment is the one i zeroed in on frirltsz the small to medium-sized businesses, which is a growing part of the overall i believe. i ning vesters can hold on that stock. i wouldn't keep buying in this

environment. you want to be careful what stocks you're buying >> remarkable. we'll see what happens after hours. "mad money" xpo logistics ceo. >> and shouldn't they be reopening beneficiary but the shares were down 26% and they're just 4% above the 52-week low from last week >> court >> you know, obviously, the mall is a place that we've all been focussed on for a number of years. there's been times it has looked good and times it hasn't sometimen property group is considered the best of breed they have a lot of the a-rated malls. we just have to remember it's as goods a it's going to get from simon property group and as a subsector of the group, the biggest underperformer year

to date. down 26% that is something many investors are going to key in on that operating income is always a key metric i think we're going to want to understand bigger trends is in-person shopping still seeing a resurgence? we're seeing a a lot of downward trends from ecommerce players? and is simon property group the best in breed? and remember simon also has taken on interesting investment strategies with some of the believers and in some cases names that had been bankrupt and names that are almost there. investors want to know are they looking to make more acquisition targets or look at more of the spacs but that could potentially be are revenue generating going forward. and what's happiening with the retailers in the traffic

our consumers consolidating trips. are they going to the mall less but buying more on each trip that's good commentary from ceo, david simon, who's always a glass half full ceo. >> i think you have to be, spaelgts these days. we have simon underperforming. and huge mall out this way in new jersey, one of the best in the area is the head wind interest rates? courtney mentioned a lot of tact a factors but i'm surprised these have been such a a terrible investment. >> i think it's a double-edged sword. post pandemic was everyone going out post pandemic and they inkroesed occupancy. but if you're reading the tea leaves, there's a little bit of fear from consumers on inflation. there's companies with wages

so, i do think they're best in breed. are and if you want to have exposure to that, you should hold your shares but the down side risk is consumer good havlier and what's happening with overall fear of inflation and 23 they're holding on to the dollars rather than spending them. >> and seemed almost unfair you have the entire category contracting. and the mall category is contracting at the same time >> just like everything, you have to read between the lines when we got the master card monthly retail sales data, it again showed an uptick indiana-store sales. it's not always acause the board. some categories are going to bestronger luxury continues to be strong, despite inflation and everything going on in the macro economic environment. and in a number of categories, home furnishing is still strong and way fair is not a

beneficiary, at least not recently, as of that category. >> this is liquidity reseeding and some action across the board. we'll be watching simon's earnings today and last but not least we turn to peloton, which hit a new all-time low we got the reports from the minority stake holder. and options are a 24% move post earnings dianna >> this will be the first quarterly earnings report with new ceo barry mccarthy at the helm of course they'll be looking for any remarks about additional cost cutting as they're report 250g report a fiscal third quarter loss compared to a 3 ecents loss a year ago and mccarthy did say there would be a lot of cost cutting ahead it already announced it will raise the price for its monthly subscription while lowering the

bike and trid prices analysts will watch subscriber growth closely it currently has 6.6 million 34e78bers. a lot to listen for. again, the first time with the new ceo at the helm. >> maybe that can get life back in the stock you're still steering clear. >> this is a growth stock i'm lucky not to own and it's low churn rate. obviously have a new voice in management but the reasons i wouldn't own is a look at the haj major reinstruction. it could effect the bottom line i think in margins and i don't think the demand will be offset by reduction demand is slowly going away and still have supply chain issues and they're dealing with the highest rate hikes we talked about earlier. a lot of head winds for peloton.

>> are there any glimmers of hope and any names in the fitinize category? >> not in connected fitness. but we're seeing a lot of good news around -- buzz around names like planet fitness and that's because you're looking for the discount, spaelgts when people are digging deeper into their pockets to pay for everything else instead of inflation. when you have peloton and these monthly fees to work out at home, that may be the first thing to go. but they're launching all sorts of new things on the apps, new racing, new music ventures, all sorts of things like that. they don't seem to be pulling back on the content but are it's the media content really pushing forward. lowering the price may bring some demand back in but that's a pricey tread no matter how you slice it and leaving the house, a lot of people may choose to do

that now >> they're going back to the gym but not the mall what a great america we have emerged as thank you. realau appreciate it as with el. coming up, we have a tech on the check trade for better or purse. the nasdaq is down another 3%. we've got all the biggest movers with more than half the index down by 50% from their highs stay with us

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welcome back to "the exchange." the nasdaq is trading at 11,775. 25 bosa joins us with more on some of the big dekleiners after the past week. which has been a wild ride to the up side and now to the down side >> and that continues to be the

big question in the sell off and mega caps led in the past decade or so investors trying to figure out what the bottom is some could argue they are still expensive on a relative basis. amazon is trading at a 40-time forward pe multiple. microsoft and apple 25 and 23 respectively alphabet's forward pe has stolen to 17. it is becoming increasingly clear that the mega caps, what we called fang for year said is trading less and less like a group. look at earnings growth where have they broken down? looking beyond the large caps, they continue to be far worse for midcaps and the less large tech chip makers continue to be under pressure affirm, with asana continue to

bleed in today's session as we hear from ober's ceo to employees. the market is getting inflation. they want to see profit, free cash flow, which. >> of the younger names will struggle with. >> we talked about this last week when she was watching key levels in tesla and microsoft. with apple 150 we're only a couple dollars above that right now and with microsoft we've broken below 270. that was a name for a lot of people that had held up relatively better amid selling pressure is. >> i would put apple and microsoft in that group. that is concerning you have growth earnings season with, even alphabet in terms of ad head winds and metta for a long time. so, investor ares are watching closely and as we continue to see levels broken, they're going

to look at val usings. but it's getting tougher out there. >> and we all have to reremember, these are mega buy back programs. at least we can't criticize them for buying at the highs. at least we hope not still ahead, higher interest rates are supposed to help the financialalal. so, why is that not happening? this sector is still down double digits our next guest is here to make his case and we're celebrating asian american and pacific islander hair sj. here's j.p. morgan managing director, joyce chang. >> one important thing about the aegsz american community is it's not a monolith there's diversity of asians not recognized i grew up in rural iowa and which isn't that typical i think growing up chinese, one major value is humility.

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welcome back take a hook at some of the big bank stocks. all more than 25% off the 52-week high even with the supposed tail win% of higher rates. tailwind of higher rates my next guest says sentiment is as bad as it's been since 2020, but earnings haven't been this good in years. do you buy or bail on the trade? for more, i'm joined by jeff hart, senior bank from piper sandler. why is sentiment so bad? is it just the recession concern? >> that's the primary driver interest rates is clearly a tailwind, and it was an expected tailwind coming into the year bank stocks had higher rates priced in and they're materialized and what's changed especially with the war on ukraine and how inflation is stepped up and therefore a spike in credit loss, and i think that's really what's weighing on

the banks and it's been a differencemaker for bank stocks in the last couple of months, probably >> understandably, investors don't have to be the ones who call the recession thing correctly and therefore they're staying away from the space, but there's plenty of people who think this is a valuation correction at least in the near-term. i wonder if some of the problems with banks are the labor costs and this is what j.p. morgan said at the turn of the year >> the banks have seen some. i think actually, especially for everyone involved in banking, language was such a good year and trading, as well and they've had some artificially elevated expenses and it won't be as bad this year, and i think the expense is probably not going to be as big an issue at the end of the day when you're investing in financials, you have to make a macro call because they're closely tied to the economy. if your macro call is you have

to have a recession, you have to stay away. the fed is not going to hike as much as the market thinks and the economy is growing all of a sudden these banks are looking attractive with the bad news priced in >> i feel like i'm talking with you in the past. you'd like the big money center banks typically. who do you think is best positioned for this environment. >> i find myself coming back to the big universal banks, right bank of america tops my list j.p. morgan is there, as well. if we actually do go into a recession, these guys have the scale, uniquely to defend their bottom line, but to also go out and gain some market share if you're struggling. if, on the other hand, the economy turns out to be okay and we don't go into a recession, i mean, these guys are leveraging interest rates and they lever the capital markets and that kind of thing. sitting here today, the safest place to be whether you're bullish or bearish is bank

stocks is a company like b of a or j.p. morgan >> it sounds like the problem is it's not whether or not i would have to tell you, this is when the chatter about it stopped because until the chatter stops it's not going to go away as the concern weighing on their performance, is it >> no, that's true what we will see is the slowing of the inflationary pressures and we will see as we get into the back half of the year and slowing in inflationary pressures and certainly any positive news on the war front in europe. it's easy to -- it's not easy to forget, but that's a major headwind, if we can get a truce or peace in ukraine/russia and dial it down a bit that is what it takes to get people in. we still see loan growth as good, and that macro economic outlook seems to be what has the market scratching its head >> it's a great point and we

haven't talked about the ukraine lately thanks for joining us today. jeff hart. >> let's check on the markets. the nasdaq right now hitting session lows 3.9% and 473 points and it's trading at 671. half the stocks in the composite are down 60% on average from their 52-week highs. as goes the nasdaq so goes bitcoin and it's been a rough year, down 31% since january bitcoin today fell as low as $31,000 -- $31,003, that's back to last july levels and it's back to july is the bottom? sight? we'll have the latest next

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♪♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ welcome back bitcoin down almost 10% today, nearly breaking below $31,000. we got $3 shy of that level. let's check in with kate rooney

with what's driving the losses kate, it's not your fault. we should be checking with the share. the big one is what's happening in broader markets and the fed that's driving that. bitcoin hasn't been able to decouple from tech stocks, namely the qqq which tracks the nasdaq 100 and because of that, you have fund strat and other firms now looking to equity research for signs of what's going to happen at bitcoin they're looking for a bottom of $ $21,000. they are recommending buyers for puts for downside protection and still bullish on the long-term chart and for the second half of this year. analysts at glass note point to poor sentiment, capital outflows and overall derisking in these companies. they note high degree of urgency and that's often measured by higher fees that investors are willing to pay and outflows from canadian etf so those are the only spot bitcoin etfs at this

point. there have been strong inflows since november and in the past two weeks there's been a significant reversal in that trend. there's been a lack of demand across both the larger whale wallets and what glass note is calling the shrimps. those tend to be the smaller investors and all of this % causing pain here for the crypto investors. in the past month bitcoin investors fell into a loss and 40% of bitcoin investors are now under water. back to you. >> shrimps i remember a stat from a while ago and it might be outdated now, but you had said that the typical entry point for the people in the wallets was around $22,000 and you wonder if we have to get to that level before we've really capitulated for the short term holders it's high errand $47,000. it's gone up for the buyers. if you think of anybody who has

bought in the last three months and likely under water how long can they hold on and are they willing to wait that decade time horizon that people say is the payoff for bitcoin. >> i'm glad the whales and the shrimps, we're all in this together in this big ocean of crypto kate, thank you very much. kate rooney. all right, from crypt onto stocks when will the selling pressure stop? we are looking for signs of of a bottom and we're, snorkeling on "power lunch." that does it for "the exchange." i'll see you in a moment tyler, take it away. and welcome, everybody, to "power lunch." i'm tyler matheson the selling on wall street not letting up at all not in any way, shape or form the s&p 100 trading below 41,000 and nasdaq below 12,000 this hour a look at stable stocks and stocks that can help ride out the volatility and the technicals on tech names and one of our guests make