tv Fast Money CNBC May 9, 2022 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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back, the market ripped. here market struggling, economy so far seems okay. >> right and the bulls would argue thank goodness for that cushion of excess savings without it wihere would we be fascinating market day of course, four more to come this week. that does it for iota iota let's get to "fast." on "fast," a monday sell-off the major rhythms getting hammered again tech getting hit the hardest the nasdaq down over 25% this year inside the staggering market destruction coming up. plus, bank stock blues, jpmorgan, citi, morgan, goldman, bank of america down 17% this year tonight one of our traders is wondering are banks so bad they could be good and later the crypto collapse. bitcoin dropping nearly 20% in the last week.
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i'm melissa lee. this is "fast money. the heart of times square on the desk tonight we start off with a new week new week begins with a new wave of selling over the last three sessions s&p 500 dropped more than 7%, today closing below 4,000. things are worse for the nasdaq. since last ythursday down more than 10% amazon fallen 13% in three days. we don't like the way things look and said sell and not one, not two, but in two dozen different languages. by the way, we checked in with him after hours, guy he says sell he doesn't like the way things look still what do you say? >> i have trouble with the english language the other 11 won't suit me particularly well. last time we chatted was tuesday before the fed meeting we had a good conversation about what we thought would come out
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one of the points we made there was impossible for the fed to be any more hawkish relief rally sorted up to the 4350 level we got it. we said sell it, 4,000 is in the cards. this makes sense to me i will say this, my opinion. the only panic i have seen was wednesday i just talked about when the market went up 1,000 dow points now you get to levels. i mentioned 3750 a couple of times. i'll show you how i get there. $221 of s&p 500 earnings for the 17 multiple which is reasonable gets you to 3750 i think that's the reset that the market needs. >> yeah, jeff yhow did you feel about the sell-off was it closer to capitulation? the vix surged higher by 15% in a single day selling across the board, energy, recent favorite, sold off. semiconductors down 5% i mean, damage being done to apple and microsoft, the two
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stalwarts. >> yeah, i want to see some more relative to capitulation even from a technical perspective, like vix above 40, 99 percentile in the put call ratio, percentage of stocks making a new three month low in the 50 to 60% of the s&p we are not there yet. i take no pleasure in there but i keep bringing up apple i am not short apple certainly but the price action is important. and i have been pointing to it time and time again that upwards sloping trend line from october of 2020 was battling with it and finally broke. this is the first time it closed above that trend line since october of 2020. i think that is significant. you saw similar price action in microsoft, tesla looks to be breaking down a little bit, but everybody is focused that direction. i think awhere you want to be looking is the copper gold ratio rolling over, pmis rolling over.
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these are stocks that performed relatively well and now you are starting to sea weakness when i think is going to happen is the economy continues to throw, inflation peaks, rates peak and you need to wade into some of these growth names no one is going to ring a bell at the bottom. you have do it now do it in a measured way. >> what have you been doing, karen? how do you feel about the market >> i am intrigued. l clearly i'm always net long. that's painful to be in a market like this. i am seeing things that are really starting to accelerate into terms of the pendulum swinging so, obviously, i am long google is my biggest position. i am long meta, long apple, long microsoft. i am not long netflix now. just looking again today you know the pe on netflix is now? it's 15 times. 15 and change. that's amazing to me that it's come all the way down. not that there is not more downside, there is but i think that the igv which is the software really high
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flyer kind of names i think there is more room to go i know they are down a lot, but i still don't think they are cheap and i think that that sort of convergence of what i think as the value google, meta, i'm still long that and short the igv. i am looking at a lulu i would love to buy. it's down, i think, maybe 150, 160. not quite sure also that's still not cheap. it's getting closer but still a multiple high 20s, maybe 30. i'd love to see it in the low 20s or 25. so that's a kind of thing i would like to buy. but i'm not really a seller here i love to see, as jeff said, love to see the vix just shoot up it felt not panicky today, sort of bad for sure, but not quite that absolute sort of capitulation quite yet pete, you probably have a better since on the vix and whether
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this was the day i don't think that's it. i think we may see a turn around tuesday, tomorrow. i would probably be a buyer then. >> pete? >> well, there is certainly an interesting thing about the vix today was the fact how tight was that range when you see 32 to 35.5, i always keep an eye on the vxn which closed above 41 for the first time in over a year. it's been over 40 but closed over 40, over 41 today so that i think says a lot because what's really been getting hammered and we know it's been the nasdaq obviously, the dow has gone down as well. when we look at the nasdaq and the punishment that has been delivered there, it's not just the mega-cap names it's the combination of all of those different three and four multiple names, zero multiple names that are absolutely crashing it feels like daily i think there is a lot going on within the markets themselves in terms of the structure and like you said, there are a couple of
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areas within the market that actually are doing okay. look at names like walmart and caterpillar. there is a couple of names out there just standing up a little bit better they are really going after the high multiple names. now, that also drags down the apples and those because when you see those etfs move, they are moving to the downside, they are going to pull down some of the big mega-caps with them or at least add to some of the selling. there is a big combination of things going on right now. i would say one last thing does it feel a little bit, because it did for me today, like there was some kind of liquidation going on i felt that a little bit today, the way things were cascading to the downside across so many different blocks, the same kinds of names it kind of gave me that feel today. >> yeah, as you mentioned, guy, at the top, you know, it was broad based. winners are being sold along with losers. when we had the collapse with arc and decline in energy names
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here did it feel different this session versus others? >> i know what pete is saying. without question it feels like something happened clearly i am here in a couple of weeks from now we will know. it's never one cockroach as everybody knows. if there was capitulation one place, it's going to cascade i'll say this. pete makes a great point all of these names are obviously multiple dozens, hundreds of etfs when passive investing was in vogue, those names benefitted from in flows of cash. my concern has been when passive becomes active, it's not going to be active on the way up you are starting to see some of that now as well that's a great sign. i saw something before we came on about goldman sachs pulling back an saks that's a really good sign. so some of the excess has been taken out. i don't think we have capitulated yesterday. >> when ylook at the spac
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collapse, arc collapse, bitcoin collapse which we will talk about later on in the show, those are good signs that people are pairg back in terms of risk exposure where does that leave us in terms of -- i mean, it doesn't feel like there are you many catalysts to the upside because we are looking out at a long range potential fed increases. we don't know the size or magnitude or the scope so here we are just sort of hanging out waiting to see if we actually see a slowdown appear in our numbers >> yeah, i think that's generally right. and to your point, the action today was decidedly risk off rates were down, right people were buying treasuries, staples, even though they are expensive. so you can tell the mood of the market precisely by the way things traded today. i would warn investors in this kind of market in a down trend, i think the bar should be a lot higher in terms of calling the all clear signal if you go back to 2010 as an example, i think there have been # 5 instances of daily positive
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3% moves on average during those moves the s&p was in 14% drawdown. those moves happen in bear markets in down trends be careful look at some of those technicals i mentioned to try to figure out whether we should call all clear and still pay attention to apple, pay attention to microsoft. i think those names still need to give back more if we want to be confident that we are reaching a bottom. apple, microsoft still above their average valuations over the last ten years should those stocks be asforded a premium? yes. if you were to retrace some of the premium currently being paid, you are maybe talking about 6, 7, 8% down for microsoft, 15, 18% down for apple. those are reasonable reference points. >> our next sees opportunity in a particularly beaten up group, big cap tech tom lee is a cnbc contributor. what did you make. sell-off today first >> well, you know, it was an
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ugly day looks like another buyer strike day. i don't think there was a ton to be encouraged by, if anything it might have been the fact that the vix didn't really spike as you guys mentioned and i think in terms of capitulation, i think some of the retail-heavy stocks were the ones taking the biggest hits like whether it's something like an arc etf or the stay-at-home stocks so i think that's another encouraging sign and i would say a couple of things that i saw in other markets that interested me was i think the odds of future fed hikes actually dropped whether it's technical or not between now and year end, the market is pricing one less hike and we have had the curve steepen. so if someone was trying to see a glimmer of hope today, i actually think it's that the market has taken enough punishment that it's actually taking some of the hawkish buyers out of the fed. >> you are sticking by your year
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end 5,100 target on the s&p 500 which is, you know, quite a bit away from where we are at least currently, tom what brings us there i mean, is it big cap tech that's the area you see opportunity in right now >> yeah, i think that's symptomatic of the risk/reward that's there you have netflix or facebook at 11 times earnings or google ex-cash at 14 times. so these names which can still grow faster than gdp are now trading at a four point multiple discount to the market there is something else that investors have to keep in mind if you compare market valuations today to even the 2000s or even the 2020 top on earnings yield less bond yield, stocks are actually still cheap so until the ten-year gets to something like 5 or close to 6%, you don't have that much compression in private equity
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multiples. of course, day to day stocks can get liquidated and there could be no buyers, so we have so sloppy downside days from a fundamental perspective, stocks aren't really demanding a lot of things to go right for you to have positive return. >> tom, it's karen thanks for coming on, especially today. so i know energy has been a big favorite of yours. the sector, in general was today -- did today make you think any differently, that it's played out, or that it was down with everything else in the market >> yeah, i mean, energy took it pretty hard today. it's still up 36% year to date so even though today it's down 8%, which is pretty shocking, i think that energy down is actually a sign we're closer to capitulation because it's one of the groups that no one -- very few had losses in. and so someone selling it today is actually someone trying to raise cash so it's a little bit like energy
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is a small weight. so it's a mini kernel that people are selling fundamentally, the sell-off isn't changing the fact that there isn't enough investment in energy and too much capital was allocated to esg so i think energy is still a group that people want to own for the next few years but again the fact that it's breaking down is making tough to say that stocks have found their bottom but i think it's, obviously, much closer to a bottom. >> all right tom, great to speak with you and get your perspective thank you. >> thank you. >> tom lee jeff mills, i go to you. because you tweeted this out and you can incorporate what you think of tom's take on the markets is that clorox and nvidia traded the same forward private equity. and i think that encapsulates the market we are in you wonder if nvidia should have been at that level and if clorox is overvalued here how do you think about that?
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>> strange, right? in the short term it doesn't matter it's going to get bought if the market continues to behave this way. i thought it was interesting you kcan make an argument that nvidia trades 12 times sales now trading at the same forward multiple as clorox i think is interesting and speaks to what tom is talking about which i think is buy quality growth stocks in this environment i think what he believes is that you are going to see a peak in inflation over the next couple of months. the market will start to re-rate what they think the fed is going to do, and then people are going to start to open their eyes to relative value plays like that whether it's next week, wlits next month, and whether these stocks have more downside to go, like i said, no one's going to ring a bell, but it's worth taking a look at some of these quality growth names that have earnings, that have real cash flow because ultimately i think
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that's where investors will huddle moving into the second half of the year. >> you think there is more downside than some of the higher valuation tech names i am thinking of the ark names you were active in some of the ark names today. >> yeah, mel, for the last week they have been buying the ark f, the fintech. they have been doing innovation and buying puts. they have been aggressively buying those puts, as a matter of fact, right at the money puts that they are looking for even further roll down because as it's gone down, they have been rolling down with it, a and continuing to be with that trade. yeah, i think the high multiple names are under attack right now. that's why people are going after the ark f and k. i think it's interesting some huge option paper from, too. better talking 20 and 30,000 at a clip and that comes at a point in time these have fallen already it's not like they just started. these are already on their 52-week lows and they continue to buy puts into this push to the downside the one thing i'd say about
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energy would be this when i look at the price of oil today down significantly and nat gas down 12%, i think that explains a lot about why energy was under so much pressure today. it has been moving almost tstep by step to the upside and once again to the downside. think i that's the rationale i don't think people were selling because it was the winner i think they were looking at that price of crude and nat gas pulling back significantly. >> coming up, banks getting bruised in today's sell-off. one says the beat down is getting started. the financials next. plus, big tech takedown. faang getting hard asmoy"etnsp enr the grouwh "ft ne rur
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>> i think it's something work looking at you crawl through the wreckage and look at some of these things i will tell you i can't remember the last time, maybe karen knows, that bank of america and jpmorgan were trading at the exact same multiple to tangible book they are both trading about 1.7 times tangible book. now, listen, you could say that bank of america doesn't deserve that and maybe that's true jpmorgan certainly deserves a premium multiple and 120 was the level we talked about for a while. jpmorgan this valuation which you haven't seen maybe in 15 or so years makes sense and bank of america, by the way, this was a level we topped out at this 35.5, 36 level right before covid hit in january/february of 2020 so banks, people have been waiting for valuations to make sense. i think they actually are starting to make a lot of sense now. >> they may be making sense but then you may be worried we are heading for a recession, because of the markets that equity issuance and trading and all those good things that make a
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lot of money for these banks drying up, karen how do you think about banks' multiples now in this environment? >> to counter your point, those are good points you make to counter those points we have higher rates and we have been just waiting on banks so long, no net interest margin, they can't make any money, and that's not the case we saw they could do that even when spreads were tighter. we will see wider spreads now. that's a good thing because they do that as, obviously, a significant part of their revenue. i think that the customer is still in good shape. credit quality is in excellent shape. that's a positive or negative, and i understand that. but i think that in a market where people are looking for cheaper valuations, this is a pretty cheap valuation now, i was looking at jpmorgan today. that's definitely on my list bank of america is my biggest bank position and i know pete
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likes goldman sachs. i also have wells fargo and then i have pmorgan stanley they don't have the lending exposure, as much credit exposure but they do to the market of investment banking, no spacs, that kind of thing. and then the asset wealth -- asset and wealth management which morgan stanley is big in and jpmorgan, obviously, big in as well. bad markets sometimes that can hit that division, but for bank of america they are in touch with that customer brian moynihan said three weeks ago, and i don't want the world has changed that much in three weeks, the customer is in very good shape the balance sheets are in very good shape so bank of america here is also very attractive. >> jeff mills, to counter the counter to my point, i'll say higher rates are great unless you -- they believe that the economy is going to be in a recession. consumers and businesses aren't going to borrow money.
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so banks won't make those loans. and make the money off the net interest margin. you think banks are going lower. >> yeah, and i appreciate what guy and karen are saying, but that's it. i think when the fed is hiking into an economic slowdown, when high yield spreads are still as tight as they are, there is room to widen and credit to tee tieriate, i think multiples will continue to compress it's a macro call. i think the underperformance can continue. >> peter, golden >> i love it that was just a fairly recent addition around that earnings time i got it around 312. it's trading one times book. when i look at that and jpmorgan and bank of america and i look at some of the other names, morgan stanley, it's the cheapest by the way, this is a great trading environment. it's not always easy for everybody. i get it when you are looking at the commodities and equities and all of that, they had $8 billion in revenue this past quarter of the nearly 13 billion that they
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reported so they are to go a lot of things i think right on the goldman sachs side of things i like it at one times book. i know guy's got to like it at one times book it's inexpensive and in the markets that we are in right now, when you look at pristine market when you look at the books themselves for each one of these banks, this one's got as good a book as anybody else and i think trading one times is way too cheap. it gives me the opportunity to own it and sell calls every month. coming up, the nasdaq drops more than 4% we got the detailsahead. plus, bright spot today. walmart managing to close out in the green. more on that in a few. you're watching "fast money" live in from the nasdaq markets in times square. in times square. back right after this this strengthening client confidence in you. before investing consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information.
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welcome back to "fast money. a sea of red for the third straight session the s&p falling more than 3%, the dow tumbling more than 650 points, the nasdaq suffering the worst losses down nearly 4%. check out the staggering amount the mega-cap names have lost in the market since last thursday that, by the way, more than $1 trillion in three trading days let's dig deeper into tech here. palantir an all-time low a host of other software tox 52 week lows. let's bring in tyler, the co-head of citi's equity research great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. >> i am wondering across the
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coverage, what has the multiple kplam collapse been like and how much of it do you think is justified and that some stocks may not have ever justified the multiple that they once were at and where do you see the opportunities? >> yeah, i think no question it's been a challenging six months for a lot of software investors, particularly those that are newer to the setter you are seeing the first bear market in software for a long time i think we are shifting from a growth at all costs mindset to a growth at a reasonable cost mindset and much more of a focused on profitability versus just looking at sales. i think you are seeing investors batten down the hatches, owning names that have weathered downturns that have the earnings and free cash flow support we think it's time to be more selective. >> like which names? just microsoft names like microsoft, the big cap tech names >> i think that's part of it certainly names that have large enterprise customer bases, they
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can pull levers. so microsoft, service now, even some of the more value names like info mat ka that we cover on thosmaller capsize. if your time horizon is multiple years out, snowflake, some of the highest growth that does generate free cash flow positive margins. given the pull become in some names, if you are looking out multiple years, which admittedly is tough to do now, there is still some good opportunities. >> i want to ask you about palantir guy watches this very very closely because it's one of the names he thought you would buy at the start of the year the guidance was disappointing some other analysts on the street say the second half could be better because you have tailwinds like the u.s. budget getting finalized and wars, that helps palantir where do you stand on this and more specifically in terms of
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the revenue it derives from spacs we are seeing a major spac sflaps collapse across the board. is that revenue in jeopardy? >> we have been cautious on palantir for really the last year concerns that have benefitted from the pandemic. growth was slowing and they were doing some unusual things such as investing in spac companies to derive revenue growth we were concerned that that would ultimately come back to hurt them. and you i think that's what you are seeing with the quarter, the second quarter guide missed kpaigs, was below the street the second half, i think it's too early to say clearly, the company did reiterate their full year guide. but it does imply a steeper second half ramp and they didn't provide a ton of details on the contracts, the timing when those can close, large deals are always tough to predict. so we still are celebrated on that one i think there are better opportunities elsewhere. >> tyler, jeff mills here.
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i would be interestied in your thoughts on a stock like salesforce middle of the road, right? it's not cheap like a facebook or google now but not in the same bucket as a snowflake absolute multiples reasonably high, but never really traded this cheaply some thoughts on that? >> yeah. i think middle ever the road is a great way to describe it our concern is we like the business i think the timing of this business, you know, going into a downturn potentially front office spending tends to get hit a little more than infrastructure spending heading into a downturn. we also worry that given the pullback in the markets that a large m&a deal could be on the table. obviously, this company has a history of doing m&a we saw them do slack, big acquisition, about a year and a half ago which really kind of disrupted this whole organic
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growth margin story. we worry that you could have growth slow a little bit because of the pandemic -- sorry, a downturn, and valuations coming in could mean that they could do another large deal. >> tyler, thanks for joining us. nice to see you. tyler radtke, citi. >> guy, i think i was channeling 2021 palantir was your hope trade now we are on to the -- so you actually dropped it. but how are you feeling about the space overall? and tyler mentioned snowflake. if you have a multiyear time horizon. >> yeah, actually makes it worse. i love palantir 25, 21, i can give you the numbers trading 7.5 bucks now. among the myriad of things i have been wrong about, that's on the top of the list. they have been cautious on it. obviously, justified i will say this quickly. i will go to microsoft real quick. i want to talk salesforce and some of these other things microsoft i think pete would agree, right now at 264 i think
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it closed you are trade to go 23 times next year's numbers. you haven't seen microsoft at those levels in three or four years at least now, the push back they are not going to get that $11. that's fine. but i think that their trajectory is fine and in terms of valuation this is about as most compelling level it's been in a way long time >> karen, you still short igv? >> i am. i was looking -- it's right back to where it was before the pandemic and you could say they have had all that growth they have all lost a lot of money. not all. some some of those high-flying software names have lost a lot of money they should be lower than here as we've said numerous time, pendulum swing, past fair value. i don't think the igv is at fair value. >> all right coming up, a green arrow and a sea of red walmart staying positive amid
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welcome back to "fast money. walmart not letting today's sell-off get in the way of gains, shares climbing 1%. some of the other big box retailers manage to go stay in the green amid the carnage so should you bet on these big box names? i mean, in theory, pete, this is where you go no matter what, times are good or times are bad? >> you are totally right i think walmart finally got into a position after being overpriced for long period of time and sort of the stock kind of holding stagnant nor a while and starting to move to the upside as the earnings got better when you look at a forward of 22 times earnings that's reasonable i think. i think. maybe it's a little bit inflated i think that's reasonable. i can't figure out target. i love that. you know that i know that name i have been in that stock a long
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period of time i think they have done most everything right stock was 260. i think it's closer to 225 now when you look at the forward pe and the teens, thisis too cheap i take target over walmart i have been trading walmart a lot. it's been a great trader they are in the right place at the right time especially if you add in sam's they are positioned well. >> guy, walmart or target? >> target. i mean, pete's right i have a walmart closer to 21. doesn't matter i mean, target right now is trading at 14 times the 16 or so dollars they are going to earn next year. it's too cheap you could say target doesn't deserve a walmart multiple okay maybe. it deserves what i think is a market multiple between 17 and 18 and you can do the math on that i think target should be significantly higher i agree with pete. actually, it's not recent. a year ago an all-time high as opposed to walmart so target over walmart for sure. >> all right
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check out kohl's, dropping 9% today, sell-off shareholders gearing up for a board of directors vote on wednesday. karen you have been watching this closely what do you think? >> yes, and i am long. there is a shareholder vote on -- it's a proxy on wednesday. and what's before the shareholders is to vote on do they want to keep the old slate current management or do they want to put in the activist slate. and so to me the issue is a board has two main jobs. pick the ceo and, two, decide on the destiny of this company. are they going to adopt mark 's new plan to maximize shareholder value, tlnshere has been many, or sell the company and they claim that they have run a real process to sell the company, even though that was four months ago. we should have heard more by now. this board should really delay the annual meeting and let the shareholders vote after they have decided what they are going to do with the destiny of this company. are they going to keep it and
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let management run it with their plan the same management they have had for a long time. or are they going to sell it to make shareholders tell you what they are going to do prior to your giving us the information about what you have zts decided to do with the company is not fair. you should delay and set a date in july and let the shareholders know when they have a lot more information. that will help them vote this i think you are trying to jam the vote down the shareholders' throats without enough information not cool. >> have you reached out to the kohl's board, karen? or ir? >> i have not reached out to the kohl's board they put out a letter. they said, let us run this process unhindered much that's fine delay the meeting. i don't think they want to hear from me, to be honest. >> well, they just heard note kohl's. all right. coming up, crypto carnage. bitcoin plummeting 9% today. brian kelly joins us next to lay
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it out rivian dropping 21% as the ev makers lkuexre got the details when "fast money" comes right back. joel, since kansas, we've taken our own path. we've never done what everyone else did. we took on the fear. we ignored the doubt. we loved the excitement. we believed. even when our path didn't make sense to everyone else, we kept going.
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. welcome back to "fast money. check out bitcoin getting hammered today the lowest level since last july. dangerously close to 30,000 level. our bitcoin baller brian kelly says cryptocurrency is trading in your lock step at the nasdaq. he joins us now. good to see you. so bitcoin is just trading like a risk asset and that's it >> i mean, well, so there is two things going on. number one it's trading like a risk asset if you look at the 30-day rolling correlation of bitcoin and the nasdaq 100, it's about 77% right now. that's about the highest we have seen but almost all year it's been above 70%. that is number one you have got that kind of flow the second thing that's going on is there is a stable dogecoin t coin backed by to bitcoin and they are trying to defend the peg against the dollar and they have to sell bitcoin to do that and that's accelerating the
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sell-off here. you have both elements coming in and that's why we're down almost 10% today. >> can one not buy bitcoin or should one not buy bitcoin until the nasdaq bottoms, basically? >> or until the correlation breaks, yeah so, i mean at this point in time you are going to have to bwait for that it's a question of the next phase of bitcoin will be maybe we see currencies break. look what's going on with the yen or rnb that might be the next catalyst. until we see that it's going to keep trading with the nasdaq. >> how do you look at currencies and see the moves and relate to what is going on with bitcoin when you see the yuan go down 1% and the dixie hit two-year highs. how do you take that information and translate that into what is going on with bitcoin? >> yeah, so the correlation between the dollar and bitcoin has been negative. so just like where the nasdaq is positive trading with it, when the dollar goes up, bitcoin has
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been going down. when i see stuff like the yuan and the rmb move the way that they move, i mean, those are extraordinary moves. things we haven't seen since the 1980s. that's currency markets breaking how does that translate in the bitcoin? bitcoin is an alternative currency just like gold is. so i think at some point in time when those currencies break, bitcoin is going to see some positive flow from it. >> hey, b.k., it's karen thanks for being on today. what do you think if the fed were to become a little more dovish, would that help bitcoin and, therefore, i guess the nasdaq or vice versa >> it would rip higher, yeah and that's what everybody is looking for, right so at 30,000, everybody is trying to buy the dip, is the fed going to back off the breaks a little bit my view is they are not going to, but the moment they do, and maybe that moment is when bitcoin is at 20,000, i don't know, that's going to be a big
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buying opportunity for bitcoin >> give us a glimpse of the bitcoin ballers portfolio. i mean, obviously, your mandate is to be a crypto fund i am wondering how you navigate this and how you hedge yeah, so, i mean, at this point, you know we, all over the place. at the this point we are net short on bitcoin we are playing the downside. we are looking for a place i'd want to buy bitcoin, but for now, yeah, you've got to trade the market you got so i am going to be net short bitcoin until things change. >> that's the head line. always god goode to get your take, thank you. >> brian kelly, you hear a bitcoin ball erlich b.k., net short bitcoin, what do you think of coinbase, guy >> we thought about it for a while. throw robinhood in there as well karen asked the right question if this fed blinks for whatever reason, which would be a mistake, that's when bitcoin
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goes i will choose to use this word, parabolic. i don't think there is a coincidence that bitcoin has been cut in half since thanksgiving same time the fed got extremely hawkish. >> pete? >> i was thinking as you asked some questions of him as well as what he added about how the correlation is, mel, i believe he was talking about the nasdaq, right, about a 77% correlation, well, shoot, you know, i have never really given that enough thought of that correlation and that being that close, but you want to hedge your sself, having puts in tqqqs or something like that, you have superstorm form of a hedge whatever it is you are holding from the long side it's something i hadn't thought about before it was intriguing. this is a whole new world for me going forward with bitcoin i like it. >> karen, would you hedge your position with puts on the qs >> no, i sort of had it in this bucket of, look, this is money
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welcome back a sneak peek at the cramer cam jim is talking with the ceo of xpo logistics. the interview at the top of the hour an "mad money." and you can have cramer delivered to your in-box sign up at cnbc.com/jointheclub or use the qr code on the screen. rivian to a low today, the stock's worst day ever this after ford announced they will sell 8 million shares as the lockiup period expires. mike is here with the action mike >> yeah, so rivian traded more than six times the average daily volume we saw puts outpacing calls by
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2.6 to 1 right now the option market is implying a move of more than 17% by the end of the week after they report earnings and the most active options that we saw today were the weekly 24 strike puts we saw 31,000 of those for an average price of $2.14 a contract if you think that's cheap given the stock's closing price of 22.5 bucks or so the stock declined sted lie throughout the day and they had were trading as the day progressed many of those puts are in the money already. seems like the sentiment is bearish through the end of the week. >> thank you mike khouw with the "options action." pete, i know you noticed this trade. independent of that you have been trading ev names and i'm wondering if this is a reason, one reason, to sell rivian >> yeah, i got to tell you, absolutely we have been seeing this put activity not just today but going back to last friday where
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they were buying the 29 strike puts that expire this friday they seem to be pounding these ev names across the board and i think right now the best thing is just to step back, let the dust settle a little bit and keep an eye on things. when he turn again, i think you can feel a little bit better about the trade. right now the pressure is on, a lot to do with the balance sheets of these companies. i think phil lebeau was talking about that you look at the balance sheets there is only so much cash to go around and that's going to be a problem. >> "options action" every friday 5:30 p.m. eastern time next, final trades, plus one time high flyer that is losing 40 plus percent of its value after hours. stay tuned
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full year. this is a $400 stock in october, guy. >> down 90%. one of the great interviews in the history of cnbc took place when this was basically a $400 stock. go back and look at tyler's interview back then. quite frankly, still doesn't make any sense valuations matter. now, 90% lower and you are starting to see what is happening to some of these high flyers. >> yeah. time for the final trade pete >> i am going with the ark puts. they just keep coming after them it's going a little bit lower i think. >> karen >> yes, would you rather i would rather target. i have target. it i i like it here the price is value which they provide and they have a $15 billion buyback in place and they bought some of the stock 246. they what be a buyer here. >> jeff mills? >> dollar general.
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if you have to be long, this is a good stock in this market. >> guy adami >> amgen would have been significantly higher but for the tape valuations compelling amgen. >> all right thank you for watching "fast." see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica other people make friends i'm just trying you to save you some money. so call me at 800-743-cnbc tweet me @jimcramer. when all else fails, all else fails. we're seeing a
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