commercial side. what we also see now because of the geopolitical tensions, there's also a cyberwar out there which actually drives also a higher adoption of the cloud because customers now are really trusting big tech players to take care about the security of their data >> s.a.p. and apple also also expanding their partnership on supply chain apps that allow iphones and ipads to be used in warehouse and delivery s.a.p. has about 25% of that market >> thanks, frank "power lunch" starts now ♪ john, thank you very much, and welcome, everything, to "power lunch." i'm tyler mathisen, and here's what's ahead on a busy hour. stocks are whipsawing, equities soar, then tumble, then climb back again the volatility just not stopping our market guests from putting her money to work, stake in the ground, says it's a time to buy. she'll tell us where and why she

calls this a tremendous buying opportunity. plus, havoc in the energy markets. that's been a telltale, the bulls now back in control, at least for today. mat gas after a dramatic two-day roughly 20% pullback we'll sort through the chaos and ask an expert if the commodity market is broken. >> hi, tyler, thanks for having me let's start with an intraday of the dow, which was up, and then down, 358 at the low and now we are higher by about 151 points the s&p now up 1% on track to avoid its fourth straight losing session fif we can hold here. the nasdaq climbing 2% outperforming the other indexes. in addition to tech, communication services and health care are the best performing sectors, and the transportation sector is weighing down, csx, union pacific, norfolk southern, they're all down more than 1%, but off lows of the session, bob

pisani is tracking the volatility from the floor of the new york stock exchange. hi, bob. >> that is the keyword, courtney incredible volatility and absolutely no trend. i want to show you the s&p 500 this is really extraordinary we had an aggressive move down in treasury yields, below 3% they sold right into it. we moved -- the high print was right after the open, about 40 u68. we moved 100 points to the bottom around 1230, and now we've turned around and we're almost 100 points off the low, not quite. you get the point here, that's not the dow. the s&p moving 100 points, high, low, and then back up again here good news is tech's holding up w we had a little late afternoon rally in tech. most of the big names are not far from their highs apple, microsoft, micron, nvidia, incredible volatility in that group the amazing thing to me today is a lot of money is moving around. i watched these etfs which are proxies for the market, there is very big moves in industrial etfs, consumer discretionary etfs, financials, energy etfs.

100% more than normal. some people are moving money around rather aggressively right now, not clear if there's any trend in that. the overall trend is still down, other than tech we've got a lot of new lows out there, banks, a lot of the big money center banks and a lot of the larger regional financial banks like pnc financial at 52-week lows today. a lot of the big industrial names that did so well earlier in the year, january and february also hitting new lows general electric's an old story, but dover, i thinker sol, these are really big global industrials including sort of general chaos we're seeing in the global economy also at 52-week lows what is the problem? we are arguably on the cusp of a bear market. you get what's called bull traps. these are false signals to buy, and not value traps. signals where the bulls think it's okay to go in and they start buying you see what happens here today and they just sell right into

it there isn't sufficient buying power to move ahead here so the technicals oversold, for example, that word you hear often, not always terribly reliable in these environments you're an old hand at this as well you've lived through this for a long time. we had this at the end of 2008, remember when the great financial crisis, we thought we had a rally going in december 2008, and then it went all the way down to the bottom, march 6th, another big leg down. it was a heartbreaking thing to watch. i think you would agree, be careful here. >> exactly let's talk a little bit more about that, bob, as the v volatility picks up. our next guest is saying it's time to put money to work. the current landscape offers a tremendous buying opportunity. let's bring in courtney garcia, senior wealth adviser at payne capital management i assume you just listened to bob who has a positive view that is really diametrically opposed to yours he was using the phrase bull trap for today he was talking about the idea

that we may be on the cusp of a bear market. you don't see it that way at all. i don't know whether you're in the minority or the majority here explain your position. >> yeah, and i think that's what you really have to take a look at right now we're seeing some extreme selling pressure we've had many days where we have 80 to 90% downside days everything is selling off. i think what you want to look at right now is why are the markets selling off and are some of these companies going to weather through this and if so, you just need to look at this as scooping up some more shares while they're cheap, and i'm not going to call this a bottom i don't think anybody who comes on here is smart enough to say this is the bottom of the markets, but i think you want to make sure as you have cash on the sidelines, starting to buy in here, if there's further downside, it's a wonderful opportunity that you only get these every one to two years where you see large pull backs it's a great time to start to get into the markets here. >> really what you're saying is execute on a dollar cost averaging strategy at this point because if the market goes up,

you're still going to lower your average cost per share if the market goes down, you're going to lower your average cost per share. >> yeah, you want to kind of hedge your bets that way i do think you just want to be sure about where you're adding your investments right now what you're seeing right now is tech has easily been a thing that's selling off the most this year as interest rates are rising i wouldn't be surprise first-degree you do see some sort of bounce in that after the extreme selling pressure we've seen i think you want to look longer term here. you want to focus on some of those cyclicals, those things that are going to do well in a rising interest rate environment. >> before we get to a couple of your picks, which are a little out of the mainstream for these times, i want to go to your forecast for the economy in this quarter. you think it could bounce back to a 3 to 4% rate. i think that's a little higher than most of your peers would say right now. what gives you that kind of confidence. >> i think what you -- the way you want to take into account here is the fact that markets are pricing in all the extreme

negative news right now, and there could be a lot of positive upsides right here there is a lot of thought that we can see inflation starting to peak it could start to come down here later this year. we could see maybe the fed is a little less -- or more dovish than people are expecting. none of those positive surprises are in the markets right now, and i think what you want to take into account is that can actually surprise the markets a lot more than some of the negative news, getting more of the negative is already priced in, but anything positive i think we can start to see -- >> but i'm asking about the economy. i'm not asking about the markets here what tells you that the economy may be ready to -- i mean, are you in the camp that that first quarter print was an anomalous one because it was mixed up with export, import numbers and so forth and that our basic trend right now is back to 3 to 4% >> yeah, and i think a lot of that has to do with having a really strong consumer right now, and that has been a big argument, too, of is the strong consumer just in the past, or are they going to continue to be strong in the future and i am of that camp, we are still seeing people are sitting on a lot of cash

they are actually not spending that down as fast as people would expect, and there is still a lot of demand going forward. i don't know about you, but i have been traveling a lot recently all of those plans are packed. the airports are packed. that's not people just having spend, people are wanting to get out and travel they're wanting to get out and do things. >> i'm going to turn to the other courtney here today and ask her to pose the question about nordstrom, which is one of your picks. >> i find it very interesting that you have nordstrom as one of your picks and you note the dividend yield, which certainly it does have it's not usually a reason i see people pointing to nordstrom why do you think that this is particularly a name that could see a recovery if the consumer remains as strong as it sounds like you believe the consumer is and will continue to be? >> yeah, and of your retailers i do like nordstrom. they've been really strong they have a loyal customer base. they have a lot of your flagships in some of your major cities like new york city or san francisco, which have not had the same kind of foot traffic they had pre-pandemic. that is starting to come back.

you're starting to get that tourism back in. that can add to a whole segment of their business that has not recovered yet. i think they have a lot of room still in their earnings and sales to grow, and they're still trading at relatively cheap, they still have a lot of room to run prepandemic levels >> we have to move rather quickly, i'm interested, merck i kind of get, it's a big -- partly a bet on keytruda, which is a multi, multibillion dollar cancer drug, very successful one, you like at&t because they've gotten out of the entertainment business you like them as a pure broadband and cellular play. >> mm-hmm. and again, think about the fact that we're in a rising interest rate environment you want to be in some of those companies that have pricing power, and at&t is very much one of those they had a huge increase in subscribers last year, and they're spending a lot of money to get more into 5g and fiberoptic networks and get more into that customer base. again, they're one of those companies where even as inflation is kicking in, they pay one of the highest dividends in the s&p 500 and they have that pricing power, which i

think is really important in this environment right now. >> courtney, thank you for your time today we appreciate it courtney garcia. >> thank you for having me. >> you bet. now to a key pillar of the economy, housing and a new report that points to a major shift, but is more homes for sale a good sign or a bad sign diana oleg joins us from washington with the latest and the decision diana. >> reporter: i don't know if i have the decision, court, but i got the numbers. so the supply of homes for sale could post its first year-over-year increase in three years, and it could happen in just the next few weeks, that according to new data from realtor.com. inventory was 12% lower in april, but that was the smallest year-over-year decline, actually, since the end of 2019, and another reading covering just the last week in april shows inventory down only 3% from a year ago. so realtor.com's chief economist danielle hale said spril data suggests a positive turn of events is on the horizon for weary buyers of course not for sellers.

weaker affordability is tra translating into fewer potential buyers the shift in supply is due to that drop in sales thanks to the recent spike in mortgage rates which has made already expensive homes pricier. the average rate on the 30-year fixed has jumped more than 2.5 p percentage points since the start of this year and home prices are up 34% since the start of the pandemic. the growth in supply is being head by mid-sized family homes as fewer are going under contract, despite this being the heart of the spring market, which is when that family demand usually happens most, courtney. >> i am curious, diana, why is the growth in supply being led by mid to high family homes? can you elaborate on that a bit? >> i would say prices. it just has to do with affordability. when you seymoue mortgage rates that much higher, it's going to knock people out of that market. perhaps they want the lower priced homes, but there are very few of those available you already had more of the higher priced homes to begin

with then they become pricipricier. supply just bloalloons. >> got it. thank you very much. coming up, folks shares of vivent lower today, the stock down about 30% this year, if spending is moving to experiences as we hear so often, what will it take to turn vivid around we will ask the ceo. plus, a one-time pandemic darling faltering, fintech and a restaurant-related play, we will trade three of the day's big movers this hour as we head to break, take a look at shares of biohaven pharma surging 70% on an acquisition by pfizer and let's see, there's the biotech etf, there you see it up 3.5%

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welcome back to "power lunch," i'm dominic chu, we wanted to bring you a market flash on what's happening with national vision holdings, which is on pace for its worst day ever after missing estimates on revenues, the eye exam and glasses provider ticker eye also slashing its outlook sciting headwinds including the omicron variant for covid, staffing challenges, weaker consumer confidence, and risks of a possible recession as well as,

of course, geopolitical instability. those results are also weighing on direct to consumer glasses provider warby parker which is down double-digits so far today. and then by the way, we want to also call your attention to what's happening with sewofi technologies, it's just resumed trading after that inadvertent early release/leak, down 12% about $0.75, i'll send it back to you >> thank you very much shares of vivid seats sharply lower despite reporting record revenue in its first quarter and raising 2022 guidance. the stock down about 30% this year the company acknowledging there was an impact from higher than expected event cancellations and also point to some challenging macro headwinds including high gas prices stan chia is the ceo of vivid seats. stan, thank you very much fo being here why not raise your profitability forecast if you are expecting higher revenues? what kind of costs are weighing

on the business that would prevent that part of the guidance from being increased? >> yeah, hi, courtney. thank you for having me today. when we look across the landscape and where we continue to perform, you know, i think as we talked about, we certainly had an unexpected cancellation impact in this first quarter despite being our third record setting quarter across revenue and gov and beating, you know, consensus across every line including the ebitda line. that, you know, $4 million impact to cancels was something that happened that really wasn't even covid oriented, right, we looked at just an anomaly in the industry driving a disproportionate cancellation impact as we looked at raising guidance through the rest of the ye across all the elements, i think us keeping our ebitda in line really takes into account the headwind that we encountered in the first quarter. >> okay. so are you expecting these cancellations as you're men mentioning not necessarily covid related, are you expecting

potential one off cancellations to continue throughout the rest of the year as a possibility >> i think that's really a hard thing to forecast. ky go back and just say what we saw in the first quarter with, you know, really top acts in the foo fighters with the really unfortunate death of their drummer, as well as celine dion and, you know, major league baseball's lockout, all three of those things happening in one quarter we feel is an ano, ma'am lee, but certainly can't really predict the future in terms of whether that will be a regular occurrence >> that makes sense, let's talk about what events are popular, vivid seats obviously offers tickets to a wide variety of different entertainment type of performances or sports events, what is most popular, and what are ticket prices like are you seeing inflation in the prices of tickets just like we are in almost everything else? >> yeah, you know, i think across the board we've seen great interest as i think folks really look to get, you know, two words live events as they are, you know, enjoying

experiencing moments together with their friends and their families when you look at sports, we've seen a great interest in the first quarter. we had the best super bowl we've ever had we've seen the strongest ncaa both in the regular season with coach k's final game at home as well as the tournament itself bringing in some of the highest demand that we've seen you look more recently just this past weekend f1 in the sports category triple what our '19 sales were over this past weekend again, and you know, with ticket prices north of $3,500, so i think as you look at the market and certainly us as a marketplace that doesn't set prices and prices are really more of a reflection of the demand, i think demand continues to be really, really strong, and as you look at the concert side, a lot of great acts, elton john, lady gaga, they're all out there touring, and certainly, you know, i think artists look to get back on the circuit, i think they're finding that consumers are just as excited to see them as they are to get out there and

tour. >> so there's been a lot of discussion about the consumer in the united states, most of us believe the consumer has been strong there's debate about whether or not the consumer will remain strong in the face of all the pressures that we're facing. is your view that indeed consumer strength will continue to be present, especially when it comes to events like live sports or live performances that we've missed so much of in the last several years >> yeah, i think, again, i look back to what we've seen, you know, in our business where we've seen, you know, on average order size climbing at about 3%, we looked at this last quarter that we just put out, again, record setting quarter, and average order size when compared to 2019, still up 12%. right? so i think that would tell us there's still so much demand going on there, and the other stat that we look at, which i think is a great bullish indicator again, how much are people willing to travel to events, and what we saw is consumers are really willing to travel almost 20 miles more than what they've done in '19

so we see indicators again that live events remain a key area that i think consumers remain really excited to go to. >> and interesting traveling even as those prices go up whether it's gasoline or airline tickets or everything else social worked with travel. stan chia, thank you so much for joining us, ceo of vivid seats. all right coming up, hunting for yield off the beaten path, where investors are looking for dividends in this market plus, old reliable, ibm actually holding up well compared with the rest of the tech space we'll discuss that in today's working lunch, and as we head to the break, during may we celebrate asian american and pacific islander heritage and featuring some of our cnbc teammates and contributors here's richard bernstein adviser's deputy cio dan suzuki. >> my advice to the community would be don't be afraid to stick out. prove to people that you're unique and that you're much more than your racial identity, and don't forget that it's a two-way

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it has been -- i probably don't need to tell you a rough week for stocks since wednesday's post-federally the dow has dropped 1,700 points in all since then. that's about 5%, and that is leading some people to get in on the hunt for yield s seema mody joins us with some of the unusual places they're finding it. >> as we continue to hunt for yield, let's look at the high yield corporate bond etf ticker hyg which has about $19 billion in assets under management trading higher today it did sell off last week as part of the market's reaction to the fed and is now trading at its lowest level since april of 2020 we looked back over the last three months, it's down less than the broader market off by about 6%, compared to the 10% decline we're seeing in the s&p 500. this does have an average yield, hyg around 7%, much higher than the ten-year, and even energy

real estate stocks that generate the highest yield in the s&p 500, junk bonds also tend to be more speculative and higher risk the bull case has been that if we do see a rapid decline in inflation and a subsequent slower rise in interest rates, this part of the bond market will thrive. advisers recommends looking at u.s. energy bonds that are sitting on less debt and have a stronger need for investments in energy infrastructure. courtney and ty. >> one of our earlier guests was sort of having some yield hu hunting stocks as some of her picks. >> i'm frank holland, here's your cnbc news update at this hour in ukraine as the war enter the its 11th week, russian forces firing new hypersonic missiles at the vital port city of odesa overnight. that attack killed at least one person and destroyed a shopping center and a warehouse the. the corrections officer who helped an alabama inmate escape triggering a massive manhunt is now dead authorities say that vicky white

died of a self-inflicted gunshot wound after a high speed car chase with u.s. marshals that escaped inmate casey white is now in custody. and parents are struggling to keep up with a nationwide shortage of baby formula made worse by abbott nutrition's massive recall that recall was triggered after four babies were hospitalized, and two of them died after consuming abbott products. cvs and walgreen's now rationing formula, limiting customers to three items per purchase. and a california district attorney will not be filing criminal charges against mike tyson. this comes after he was recorded punching a first class passenger aboard a flight last month both the passenger who has not been identified and tyson, they both requested that no charges be filed if you go online, you can see some of that video fun fact, mike tyson was heading to the cannabis conference i was at when it happened, tyler. >> oh, my goodness i remember the altercation there. that's alarming, isn't it about the baby formula thing. >> that's so terrifying as a

parent. >> not being able to get it, scary stuff. ahead on "power lunch," folks, nationaural gas prices hitting record highs diesel prices soaring, we'll break it down in our weekly meeting with bank of america's francisco blanch. and pella done, should investors avd oiit at all costs? we'll be right back. s your soun. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire you'll always remember buying your first car. but the things that last a lifetime

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and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities.™ we've got 90 minutes left in the trading day. we want to get you caught up on this wild market day if you like volatility, you like the vix, it's a vixen right now, bonds, stocks, commodities all in focus let's bring back bob pisani from the new york stock exchange. >> while volatility and no trend particularly look at the s&p 500, 100 point move from the 2top to the botto around 12:30 and almost 100 point move back. that's no trend and an awful lot of volatility. 20% of the s&p 500 is at new lows today that's over 100 stocks, big name dow stocks, we've got boeing, nike, disney, home depot, jpmorgan, banks of new lows, a lot of them. goldman sachs, seven, eight,

nine, ten stocks at new lows how many new highs on the s&p? how about just two, kroger and of course general mills, and they're down they were higher earlier in the day. mega caps holding up well. that's one of the reasons the markets rallied back a little bit. apple's up 2.5%, micron and nvidia also bouncing we've seen new lows in the retail sector as well. the xrt is at a new low, amazon new low and some of the big discounters tjx and ross stores new lows as well. now to the bond market, money moving into bonds, prices going up on this day, and yields are going the other way as they always do. the ten-year back below 3% today, 2.977 right now after hitting 3.17 yesterday, that's the highest level since november of 2018, let's go now to the energy markets, which are experiencing almost as much volatility lately as stocks, oil back down below $100 a barrel,

and pippa stevens has the details. >> hey, tyler, closing under that key $100 level and adding to the 6% declines we saw yesterday, pbm attributing the slide to the stalled eu sanctions on russian energy, which is shifting the focus back to economic considerations, and wh what slowing global growth means for demand wti is at $99.69, brent crude at 102.38 both down about 3 1/3% nat na earlier if the session it traded at $6.43 also wanted to note that gasoline prices are surging yet again. the national average for a gallon hit a record $4.37 today according to the aaa retail diesel also hitting a record of $5.55. this is the 12th straight day it's hit a record, and part of this is because of the surge in

oil but lack of refining capacity starting to play an even bigger role, which is sending diesel, jet fuel and other refined products surging >> pippa, thank you very much. our next guest has been pretty concerned about the energy markets and expecting the turmoil to remain well into the summer let's bring in francisco blanch, head of global commodities and derivatives research at b of a global research. we ought to call this tuesdays with francisco welcome back my friend, it's nice to see you. >> thank you, tyler. thanks for having me. >> why don't we talk about a couple of -- a little more obscure parts. why has diesel been going as high as it has i saw it over the weekend well above $6 a gallon at a station out on long island >> well, so very simply, tyler, russia is one of the largest exporters of petroleum products, the largest one being the u.s. of a russia comes right as number two. it has roughly 6 million barrels

a day of refining capacity we've seen a meaningful curtailment of russian exports as we've seen a lot of companies going for self-sanctions, and then of course the u.s. has also sanctioned russian energy exports as has the uk. so that's tightened a global refining system, that's number one. number two is we've also seen the chinese reducing their petroleum product exports, that's also tightened the global market and as a result we've seen higher diesel prices in new york harbor, which is why you have those high prices in new jersey so it kind of comes together, it's a global market and russia and china has reduced their export volumes quite a bit that's the bottom line. >> oil down today, natural gas higher today after a couple of days of very steep sort of counter trend losses there what's going on in nat gas >> well, natural gas is a global markets as well in some ways

but in the case of the u.s. it's still a local market one thing we talked about last week or the week prior, the global coal prices are ripping you think oil is expensive at $100 a barrel. just think about this, global coal prices are also close to $100 a barrel of oil equivalent, and typically coal trades at a fifth of the price of oil, once you adjust for the value it contains so coal is supposed to be $20 a barrel and it's $100 a barrel, and that's dragged up the price of coal in the u.s. as well. lifting up the room for gas to move towards the upper end of that utilities will use either coal or gas to generate the electricity, so when the price of coal goes up, the price of -- that also lifts the price for natural gas if you have a tight market remember we had coal in the winter, so demand was pretty strong into the winter and also

remember in the case of the u.s. market, we have -- in the first quarter and also in april, so we lost supply. we had pretty good demand, and we ended up with a deficit, and then this coal market is ripped so i think that's the story on gas. it's kind of connecting to that -- a global energy crisis so to speak. >> and if we look at wti crude or brent crude, at what point does economic slowdowns, the united states globally begin to impact demand for fuel, and then ultimately hit the price what's the average equilibrium price for wti and brent crude in your opinion as you factor in what may or may not be going on with economic slowdowns? >> well, courtney, thanks for the question it's hard to tell because remember this is all happening simultaneously and i think that the pullback in equity markets and fixed income markets could signal already an economic slowdown, and they'll eventually get priced into

weaker demand growth, but i think what we've seen so far is that in the case of u.s. gasoline, we've hit record levels yesterday on the wholesale markets which will feed into higher prices at the pump i still think going into july had, 4th we're going to see a strong gasoline market. past the summer, things will be different. we don't know what china is going to do in terms of exporting more petroleum products, what russia is going to do. we industria we still have china in lockdowns and it seems like beijing is moving towards levels the same as shanghai. i think that could eventually support the oil complex throughout the next few months so i'm a little concerned about the macro for sure, but i do think that the recovery of the post -- that we'll see post

lockdowns in china will be very supportive to prices. >> got it. fra francisco blanchs thank you very much for joining us here today we'll see you soon. >> thank you. ibm hosting its think conference, that stock down. an the old tech name a safer bet th new growth? john ford brings us the interview with the ceo >> announcer: the bond report is brought to you by pimco, a global leader in active fixed income [bushes rustling] [door opening] ♪dramatic music♪ yes!

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if you wait long enough, you will find that the dow had turned negative again, and now the dow has turned positive again. it was down 300, and it was then positive, and then it was negative and then it was positive, and now it's positive again. by 53 points they told me when we were in the break, they said we're going to do a market update because the dow turned negative again. i come over here, say hello to john ford. >> there's a little green line. >> my goodness now to our working lunch. >> the chart looks like christmas, red and green. >> that's why you are here until this year a great stock market was one that went way up an now a lot of investors would be happy with one that isn't going way down they'd be happy with that, wouldn't they?

let's all agree with that. jon fortt brings us up close with a ceo who took the driver's seat of a storied company at the beginning of the pandemic and says now turning a corner. >> tyler krishna, ceo of ibm, a company that's trading about where it did five years ago, to be fair, so is netflix, but ibm is paying out about a 5% dividend yield can ibm meaningfully grow from here arvin's an engineer by training. he's integrating software company red hat and spun out i.t. infrastructure company kindrel, whether it's companies or technologies, he has had a long history of studying how things work. >> i think when i was 2 years old i still have memories of this this, i was given a tricycle i found my father's -- and i took the tricycle apart. i've been known to take apart parts on their cars that i could find luckily my father was handy so

he could put them back together. >> right, and i'm guessing as a 2-year-old you did not put the tricycle back together >> i don't believe i did i believe i tried but didn't quite succeed. >> investors need to decide whether he's put ibm together correctly for this challenging moment ibm has a huge work force, about 250,000 employees at a time when labor costs are rising, but arvind says customers need skilled tech workers which he has. another big question is where ibm can succeed in a cloud-driven enterprise environment, even if it doesn't have the infrastructure business of amazon, microsoft, or google. arvind argues ibm technologies is going to help customers operate when they have to use multiple clouds. >> i really want to have a common pool of skills that straddles all of these clouds. may not be for every single application but let's call it for maybe half the critical applications if you want a common pool of skills, that means they're not going to learn each native cloud to the depth that layer that provides abstraction comes from the red

hat technologies, red hat lennox and red hat open shift that gives you that commonality that goes across public clouds and the private cloud. so i think you'll agree when there's a shortage of skilled labor, that's attractive to a certain fraction of the enterprises and to what they would view as critical, they want the resilience of being able to go across multiple clouds that's where the advantage comes in and those things can then run across that environment and that's how we would then get the software established i actually worry less about margin, worry more about people consuming it to get business benefit. margin is an outcome. >> ibm has had a lot of false starts in recent years, but i think the next 18 months are going to show whether he has meaningfully focused the company. can his expensive work force solve customer problems crisply enough to justify price hikes and can his software become the cloud's -- this ibm tricycle

might be faster than it looks, guys. >> so he said stuff there that you understand. >> yes >> but i don't >> here's a big part of it when it comes to cloud. so there's aws, microsoft's got azure, there's google cloud platform lately in enterprise, people don't want to be locked into just one they want to have options for all of them. he's saying, well, with red hat we have the software tools that allow customers to just write to that and use it across multiple clouds so they can be flexible for some things they might want to be specifically on aws and get real experts in that, but especially in a tight labor environment, customers want to be flexible and we allow them to be flexible. >> so is ibm then really a subsidiary of red hat or the opposite is red hat driving the bus here? z >> the technology is important, but remember, ibm's also got mainframe technology which is w actually growing very high margin they've got this big consulting business which is people that

help customers actually know how to use the technology, which he's arguing in a labor constrained environment, the customers can't afford to hire their own people >> we've got them here. >> can ibm keep the people and deliver the results that are going to allow ibm to raise prices and say it's worth it. >> you don't always look at ibm as a name that might be the sexiest tech investment, but is it more recession proof than some of the other names like it, an amazon or microsoft if you're looking to play cloud? >> when you're excited about stocks that keep going up and up and revenue growth that's in part driven by risk, then ibm is not so excitedm ing, but when you're worried about -- eventually they got to grow, they've had some good quarters of revenue growth. the question is whether arvind's strategy is going to accelerate that >> thank you very much. lending platform upstart sinking to put it lightly after the company cut its full-year revenue forecast the stock is way off its highs of nearly $400 per share

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today's three stock lunch is focused on three of the big egs losers upstart losing 60% of its value

after the company cut its full-year revenue forecast peloton shares is burning through cash and cisco is higher let's trade them with cliff hodge from cornerstone wealth. let's get started with upstart >> good afternoon. upstart is a disaster. down 60% today, as you mentioned. $4 billion of market cap has been wiped out and it's still trading at about six times next years sales estimates which are likely going to continue to get marked down. the stock is a poster child for what can happen during regime change like what we're experiencing now promising technology, blistering growth and the potential for massive profits, far off in the future where that growth trajectory keeps moving higher, that playbook is over we're in a new world

rates are rising, the fed is pulling liquidity, investors should be looking for cash flows -- earnings and cash flows today. that's the name of the game. >> let's go on to another one where you can say there's a regime change and there is in the executive suite and that would be peloton is my favorite instructor, cody rigsby safe? >> i wife loves cody rigsby as well it's another example of the kind of stock that worked well the past couple of years that will have a much tougher slog going forward. peloton is a great product we have one in our house and i should use it a little more often. we want current earnings, current cash flows, neither of which peloton has. its sales are projected to fall over the next 12 months. the stock has already dropped 90%. they have a great franchise, a great brand, it's relatively cheap. this is going to be a longer term turn-around story

it will get taken out, but you have patience and -- we think there are better places to deploy capital today. >> peloton shares down 7.5%. cliff, the final name is sysco, not the tech company, but the food company. >> the food company. yeah, this one, this name fits a little better with the kind of factories that we're interested in currently this morning's results, sales up over 40%, earnings per share up 250% a nice beat and raise to boot. love management commentary aligning with some of the comments we heard from banks and credit card companies earlier in the reporting season with consumers favoring experiences over stuff we like that theme also nice to hear about management giving a nod to improving supply chain, so that's going to likely take a little bit longer to normalize not cheap. i wouldn't rush out to buy it on

a 7% up day but keep it on the watch list if broader markets continue to struggle. >> cliff hodge, thank you very much for running us through our three stocks in our three-stock lunch. up next, a look at the stocks that have been working in this turbulent market. yes, we found some

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the hunt is on for stable stocks in this very volatile market dom chu has a list of names that have been holding up, sir. >> holding up over the last week or so. so we saw what happened after the fed decided to raise rates but maybe not by as much as people thought and whatnot we saw the rally and the subsequent crash over the last week if you take a look at the s&p 500 overall, the move that we've seen now, that tiny little bounce you're seeing on the right-hand side still does represent a 15, 17% decline from the record highs that we've seen over the last week, though, believe it or not there have been green spots in the market overall. there's two specific industry groups i want to call out to show you what i'm talking about. maybe no surprise if you look at the consumer staples trade, the

ones that are less economically sensitive. people are always going to buy processed foods, diapers, shampoo and whatnot. it is names like kellogg, clorox and kimberly clark and campbell's soup, names like that over the course of the last week that have seen gains despite the fact that the market has fallen off. it's not even that they have fallen less than the market. they're actually winning in an environment where everything else is falling by the wayside so that's the consumer staples trade. not a surprise there what was interesting was to dig a little further and take a look at some of the other stocks that have been doing well over the last week. financials, but not the banks. it's the insurance companies take a look at these performances over the course of the last week. cigna corp health insurance up 5.5% to 6% cincinnati financial up 2.5% big insurance company in the s&p. and then travelers, a dow component, up about half a percent as well. so in an environment when you've got tech stocks falling 6, 7, 8, 9, 10% in a week, actually

having green performance for consumer staple stocks and insurance companies may be one of the places where the market does hypothetically take another leg lower and there's a near term precedent for some of that outperformance to play out in the coming weeks if it were to happen again. >> why insurers, because they seem to make money no matter what. >> it could also be the interest rate environment as things go higher, insurance companies in terms of rates, you have exposure with regard to fund future liabilities, there's a certain amount of money they can make in their portfolio if they can reinvest at certain rates and higher rates and whatnot or it could be there aren't as many natural disasters for those property casualty companies to have to finance going forward. but i would also point this out. none of these companies is going to compare with the performance of big tech, right we've made a lot of hay with the notion that the biggest tech companies in america and the s&p have lost over a trillion dollars in market value over the

course of the last three days so it's something to keep perspective on. >> and three years ago there was not one company that had a trillion dollars. >> and now there's other four. >> dom, good to see you. thank you all for watching "power lunch." "closing bell" starts right now. thank you, tyler and courtney it is another roller coaster session on wall street the dow had been up more than 500 points before turning sharply lower, then recovering now struggling for direction as we head toward the close the most important hour of trading starts now welcome, everyone, to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen here's where we stand in the markets. as you can see the dow is higher by 29 points the high of the session was up 500, the low was down 357. the s&p 500 up a nice three-quarters of 1% the strength is in the hardest-hit part of the market, technology communication services, netflix and alphabet working today nasdaq composite up