opinion. >> jason, want to thank you. a nice way to tease what we have on monday. ben bernanke is going to be with us and you'll see his comments on inflation and crypto as well. it's been a heck of a last three hours, guys. >> it has. way to crash into the weekend here >> a long day. good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cr cramer futures with a bounce on this friday the 13th. stocks still on pace for the worst week since january i got some optimism about china lockdowns, bitcoin above 30k and the latest in the elon musk twitter circus musk served drama about his future on the twitter deal, sending shares on wild swings. a bottom or a bounce

futures are poised to own sharply higher as the s&p fights off official bear market territory. after the crypto crash, bitcoin rallies, robinhood shares surging. we will start with the markets as we try to end this volatile week with a bounce jim, for the week, about 1200 points not unheard of >> no, i think this was the week where i think people were more confused than i have seen in a long time. dan ives, who is the 5:00 anchor or the 6:00 anchor, just kidding, came out with a piece today that basically said i have been wrong a lot, but i have been right a lot, so therefore, this might be a good time. it's the zeitgeist the zeitgeist, which is basically, look, we're just precipice moment, i don't know which way it's going to go but i think it's positive. a lot of people think we're at this precipice moment. i think it's going to be negative the chasm, dichotomy between those who think it's going to be

good and bad is the deepest i have seen since 2007 >> that's an interesting comment. nasdaq is down 1% for six weeks. that's only happened four times. >> this is incredible. >> you still think it's not right to be directionally long >> so let's talk apple, because apple is the elephant in the room i want to buy apple. i upgraded it for the travel trust. it's been straight down. do i have a reason well, how about i had sanjay on last night who is the ceo of a real company, micron, and he said phones are good okay phones are good. higher-end phones are good the only thing that's weak is a low-end pc, which is chrome. when he was on our show earlier, people misinterpreted him saying phones are bad phones are good. let's say she realizes there is political pressure on him, there are other people not crazy about his view and he says we're done, may 17th, we're done you think you could get apple at

$144 you have to pay $160 i'm going to say i'm going to pick a couple stocks and not saying a line in the sand because when you do a line in the sand, obviously, you are going to get sandbagged. do i want to buy apple or sell it i want to buy apple. do i want to buy invinvidia or l it do i want to buy metaverse or sell it? i think zuckerberg is doing the right thing. he's decided not to spend like a drunken sailor why is that bad? yesterday, deirdre's interview made me feel like i have to buy the stock, so when you actually talk to the companies, like i did with sanjay last night, say the multiples are so low, this is really good you just need one thing to go right. you need china to go right and then you'll be saying, it was down, down, down what was i thinking? that's kind of where i am. >> you did tweet, you need certain things to go right in china, certain things to go right in russia.

you don't need all of them at once you don't need all of them at all. >> russia, we're winning the war. ukraine is us, we changed it it's britain, anybody who thinks we're not winning is not looking at any of the casualty reports or watching these incredible satellite images and i really think that yesterday, the most important thing that happened was finland, which had been defeated by russia in 1945, decided to come out to be in nato. now sweden is nato if everybody is nato except for russia, it's not good to be russia and by the way, china is backing away from russia you have a point where a man is out of his mind, a 70-year-old man who lost his consciousness who won in chechnya in 2000 and thinks he's going to do it again, clearly incorrect in everything he's done you have real leaders in china that are now coming out. you need another real leader saying maybe this policy is no good and you want to stay short apple, be out of apple

is that right? i don't know is apple having a good quarter no how many times do i say stick with apple ever since my daughter had a blue and pink ipod, i have been long it. i'm not backing away if you take a look at a chart, we put up a chart of nvidia, the worst chart i have seen. honestly, it's so horrible that i want to buy it because it's like, i look at it and say okay, that's it. that chart is horrible sell nvidia. wait a second, it's cut in half. they're do a lot of good things in the omniverse when i deal with zuckerberg's people, they're actually doing well it sells at 16 times earnings. what am i waiting for, carl? am i waiting for the world to end to be a buyer? i'm just saying i see stocks i really like and it's not amazon. i talked to people who are close to amazon yesterday. and they said don't write them off. i was thinking what a conversation to have, don't write off amazon

amazon six months ago was the greatest company on earth. >> on apple, your point is interesting, b of a says the definition of capitulation is when folks sell what they love and so they say watch the 100-week at 137. that's a big one the 200 week at 97 but you don't want to wait >> i can't you know, tim cook is a very smart guy. they don't have china. they have said that. they have already given you the downside of china. every single one of the phone companies wants to give you an apple. i just bought an apple, my daughter doesn't watch so, it's okay for her birthday. the ipod pro it came, like an amazing device. i felt like saying, well, they make something, and they sell it for a profit where they buy back stock and it's no longer an expensive stock. it's not it's not expensive nvidia, okay, nvidia is 23 times net shares i'm used to 70 times net shares.

metaverse, omniverse, by the way, he's working. i don't think people understand. he's working and getting the best engineers john rick attello from unity, what is happening at omniverse is very powerful and if you listen to wall street, these guys are a bunch of clowns who lost their minds and it's time to throw everything in with sam bankma bankman-fried. no, i'm not throwing my hands -- no, i'm not going into -- i took my ethereum and sold almost all of it because my banker wouldn't take it. i was willing to pay jpmorgan to take my ethereum so i could have peace of mind. no, instead i bought this nice farm my buddies and i are going to this weekend. >> we'll talk crypto in a bit. we want to get to twitter in the a-block. down sharply in the premarket,

off the lows, just hours ago, elon musk tweets the $44 billion deal is, quote, temporarily on hold pending details supporting calculation that spam and fake accounts do indeed represent less than 5% of its users. musk linked a reuters report from a couple weeks ago which does cite a regulatory filing mentioning that stat he followed up with a tweet saying he's still committed to the acquisition, but earlier this week, he was very clear that it is not a done deal >> there's still a lot of things that need to get done before this deal concludes. there's not even been a shareholder vote, and twitter has not yet filed the proxy for a shareholder vote so there are still some outstanding questions that need to be resolved so it is certainly not a done deal >> of course, it comes amid the discussion about the margin on

tesla, the discussion of other financing yesterday. the firing of a couple key twitter execs. let's bring in david faber for guidance on how to think about this >> good morning, carl, good morning, jim listen, it's musk. and so it's all new. he makes his own rules and you know, even when it comes to mergers and acquisitions and contracts, apparently, he thinks he can make his own rules. perhaps he'll end up being correct here you do default to sort of the law, default to the contract to a certain extent so i'll lay that out for people as best i can at this point. he signed a deal to acquire this company at $54.20. a lot of people point to that reverse break fee of only $1 billion. true, a small fee, but that only comes into play if there are regulatory objections he couldn't get around. this is about him already potentially being in breach of the merger agreement by casting doubt on the deal itself it may be one reason why he followed up with that next tweet

saying still committed to the acquisition. that certainly seems to have the fingerprints of his lawyers on it saying you better put something else out because you're supposed to use your reasonable best efforts to get a deal done, so that did follow. interestingly, didn't do much to the stock price in terms of bringing it back up. this is not a surprise in some way. the stock has been off all week, of course, with the weakness in the market its high was that last thursday when he detailed all the equity investors who were coming in to join him in this deal, and we gave you some specifics in terms of the video presentations that he had made to those investors about his plans for the company. it was up in the 50s then. you can see where it is now. there's no clear sign that this is going to change anytime soon. if you're the twitter board, where are you right now? maybe you tell morgan stanley and elon, we're going to talk to you this weekend if you don't make it clear you're still committed to this deal in every way, we're going to potentially sue you in delaware next week for breach.

i don't know that's one guess another is, jim, this is a guy who makes his own rules. until this deal is actually completed, it will be in doubt does he want a price cut maybe. will he get one? who knows. completely unclear for the twitter board whether you aseed to some sort of price cut. if you did, you would want a giant reverse break fee that would be applicable in all ways. again, it's uncharted territory. it's musk. i can't tell you how many people said was he high when he did the deal or when he tweeted that what other person would anybody say that about, yet this is the world's richest person, and he's incredible in what he does, but he does it in his own way. >> he's making a mockery of everyone, which is rather extraordinary, with the s.e.c., whether it be his law firm, whether it be the whole traditional system i will say this, david the oddest thing, what he's saying that he may not be happy with is what he has been saying

is why he wants to buy twitter all the phony accounts now he says maybe there are too many phony accounts. he's so mercurial. does he do it because it's enjoyable? >> he must get some enjoyment out of it. as i said, he is a man who has always followed his own rules, and to great, incredible success. success the likes of which we have hardly ever seen in the business world i always come back to that, people can question him in so many different ways, but yeah, when was the last time you started a company sending rockets eventually to mars when was the last time you started an ev company that sells millions you know, we can go through it there's nobody like him. >> a paper route >> you had a paper route you did pretty well. but they're not going to talk about you in the history books, sorry, jim, but they will about him. whether or not this is one for the history books, i don't know. nobody does. his basic contention is there might be fraud here.

he waived due diligence, said i don't need to do that. now he's looking back at 10k, where they made it clear, front and center, saying there are a number of false or spam accounts in existence they performed an internal review of the sample of account, reading it here, and they think the average or false spam accounts in the fourth quarter represented fewer than 5%. he seems to be saying, well, i'm not sure that's true if he can prove that and prove fraud, he's out. he doesn't have to pay his billion dollars. if he could prove some material adverse effect, both of those things seem to be difficult for him to do at least at this point, jim, so we're left just wondering where it all ends. >> yeah, look, i think you really have it down, david i think that -- i think he is able to get out, which by the way, moves the stock of tesla way up tesla is one of the key stocks in this market, apple, tesla, weirdly coinbase matters microstrategy matters.

you come in and everything feels better because the possibility he's done selling tesla, which would make him the world's largest company again, gives everyone great comfort so does he really want to cut the price? does he really even care yesterday, i thought he had the financing and i wasn't worried about it >> he does, he has the financing. >> then what is he doing >> morgan stanley i think feels quite comfortable, particularly with all of the other equity investors involved, the fact he is still committing an enormous amount of his own net worth to this acquisition if you were to allege fraud that you then prove, does the financing get tougher? could it be pulled by the way, if the financing were pulled, then he's out i think he paid a billion, but he's out but again, that's highly unlikely what seems more likely is if he wants a price cut, not quite sure how he gets there probably end up in delaware court. always uncertain if you do in some way you know, many phone calls this morning with a lot of diverse

opinions in terms of how this g goes one kampcamp says he makes his n rules and make gets what he wants. others say the law is the law. you can't renege because you are unhappy with the price this is not over at $40, you tell me how much that reflects an independent twitter or where that stock would go where there not the $54.20 deal. >> i would think it would be around $30.32. i don't think it's doing well, and the pinterest cohort is doing so badly, obviously, we know meta platform is not doing that well. carl, we all grew up in a school of thought which is there are judges, the executive branch, there's a notion of a supreme court. >> checks and balances >> yes, and he missed that class. he didn't take the civics class. and so it's very difficult because, like, will he obey? will he obey

>> so if you -- what would you tell an investor that say got burned today on these tweets do you think they should join a class action or is this what you get? >> class action, you get 15 cents. i think the lawyers make a lot of money in class action twitter is valued $32.33 if he goes away, and you get upside if he stays if you stay, you're banking on a guy having the time of his life, and i would rather bank on someone who is worried about his life this guy isn't i wish twitter were doing better then it would be easier to say listen, hang in there. >> they are cutting back on hiring actually, rescinding some offers as they freeze hiring. >> they have something like -- a number of engineers. they have as many engineers as some of the other companies -- they don't have as many as alphabet, but why not buy alphabet yesterday, we had an unbelievable interview they're doing so well. why do we have to buy twitter? why do we have to hang on musk's every single word?

he's a huge amount of fun. i wake up and look at my musk file and see how bad the sixers did. i go right through it, but you have to wake up with musk. it's not like windchill when i was growing up, but you have to watch musk because musk is the most entertaining figure in the world today. but he makes it interesting, but that's not what i want i don't want to invest in instrsting >> david, our thanks to you. enjoy today in our nation's capital and appreciate the guidance from the road our david faber. >> when we come back, bitcoin rebounding after a tough week for crypto look at the premarket. for the week to date, dow down 3.6. 'rba aer bakwee ckft are (dad allen) we've been customers for years. (dad brown) i thought new phones were for new customers? we got iphone 13s, too. switched to verizon two minutes ago. (mom brown) ours were busted and we still got a shiny new one. (boy brown) check it out!

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...prime video... ...starz... ...and hbo max! just say “watchathon” into your voice remote to add a channel or streaming service. take a look at the s&p leaders this morning we talked about twitter and them pact of musk's tweets. tesla is going to be a beneficiary, up almost 7%. a month ago today, it closed at $1,022 we'll get cramer's mad dash, countdown to the opening bell after the break.

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cramer's mad dash. a good day to keep your eye on ford >> periodically, i make some -- not aspersions, but jokes about adam jonas why? because he's the most entertaining analyst today, but he's also brilliant. i know he's brilliant. i try to speak to him a lot. but he upgrades ford today what i want to give him credit for is the whole way, he said sell it. sell it. so it got to his price target and he went from sell to hold. and that's what you want a good analyst to do. he's talking about the possibility that, you know, look, they have got a lot of things going for them. they have the right vehicles and he goes, look, he cut the ebitda, but it's still a situation where he feels they can do the numbers and what i really like about it is that the negative factors include moving -- there's issues where he's talking about rolling forward discounted cash flow and they need to spend a lot of

money on lithium, they had $3 billion in terrible commodity costs but this is what a good analyst does sticks to his guns says it's a sell and then it gets there, and he upgrades it. i'm going to congratulate him because i know he thinks i make fun of him i don't. lenny bruce was like the greatest comedian ever an ironic guy. he writes every day. he's brilliant, and this was just a great call. >> he does keep his target at $13. and he is still assigning zero valuation to the ev business >> right, but i'm going to say he's wrong on that because i think farley has a great lineup. and i think he's going to surprise people being able to get what he needs in terms of batteries and in terms of semi-conductors including perhaps major semi-conductor companies that are going to commit to him. >> that's the framework behind jonas' work, who can guarantee supply for a long time, his argument was that's why you buy tesla

>> now he's warming up, i'm not saying he feels jim farley has it yet, but i'm saying this is research as it should be i like ford all the way up he said don't like it all the way up i managed to sell some for my travel trust very high, in part because of his work. now it gets down to where it is and i want to say, adam, i love you. i called you this morning to tell you i love you, and you didn't call me back so i'm saying it directly to you right now. >> nice interview with squawk this morning as well >> i was jealous because he's good >> opening bell in about five minutes. don't forget, you can catch us anytime, anywhere. just listen to the "squawk on the street" opening bell podct. 'rba ia ment i'm dan o'dowd and i approved this message. tesla's full self- driving technology.

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i haven't heard a good argument why anybody shouldn't put at least 1% of their liquid net worth in bitcoin anybody can afford to lose 1%. you don't have anything in your portfolio that can go up 10 times or more from here. >> that's bill miller yesterday talking about bitcoin. he's long said 1% of your

savings, what the heck >> that's what i have, that's all i have left in it. i couldn't find a bank that would take it without giving me too high of an interest rate bill is a streaker there's some times where bill is like the most important invister in the world sometimes he would tell you he's cold the fact he has humility i always love, and i always love hearing from him he's had amazing calls over time i think this is not a gutsy call i think 1% is good most of the people i hang out with have between 1% and 5%. >> of crypto overall in their portfolio. of their savings or net worth? >> net worth which i think is a lot but i happen to be -- i'm in a crowd fortunately we're old sxrer andd some money everybody hates the dollar they're looking for an alternative to the dollar, and that's why they're not in it because they think this is the greatest thing. they just think the dollar is the worst thing. >> that's gone the wrong way, but we'll see if it changes.

we'll talk, maybe one day payments as a mechanism for payments, these things are moving slowly. even as the prices move quickly. >> yes, and i do think like nfts, we heard coinbase wasn't doing well with nfts and then we hear they're doing great with them i want the story, i want the market to get away from the coinbase robinhood and start focusing once again on companies that make things, do things, pay dividends, pay back. i'll give you a return on capital. but we need the market to focus on that. and then that's how you get to a bottom not through craziness. not through craziness, but i do like things. i came away last night, i was speaking to regina, my executive producer she goes, jim, this is when you always say buy apple what are you doing you're right apple is good. now, will luka put out a note on monday saying listen, we have to cut numbers because of china he could, and that would be the bottom like it was last time >> at the big board today, we

should mention, it is disney celebrating the movie premier of sneakerella, a four-time nba champ over here doing the honors at the nasdaq. it's monterey celebrating their recent ipo >> the action in disney yesterday was extraordinary. i was going over both the cfo call and the actual call, and it was so tremendous. yet, the analysts came on and knocked it down. i swear, i was talking this over with my wife i said, i swear, none of them were on the call if they were on the call, they would have said, wait a second, i have to buy the stock. people don't even do work anymore. they have just made up their minds. that's one of the things that's disabling to me right now, people have made up their minds. how can they make up their minds without listening and watching the incredible analyst call yesterday? which was an amazing call. and yet no one cared i mean, i was talking to sanjay after. he said everything, cell phones

strong, autos strong, internet of things strong >> margins, capital return >> and no one cared. it was like, that's just another guy coming on. talking his book no i mean, he's a real industrialist. he's got the biggest u.s. fleet of foundries i have global foundries on the day before tom cawfield sold through to 2023 and his stock went down. at a certain point, we have to stop thinking, sam bankman freed, thank you very much maybe you're allowing us to focus on whether it's time to buy some of the airlines idon't know. i just find that we had this great trade going on people traveling and everything, and suddenly people say america's best is doing poorly >> the top dow component right now, axp, on the news of the downgrade yesterday. >> i make these calls. my life is nothing it's a miserable life because all i do is call these people.

my wife is saying, will you please do something else other than call people that's what i do for a living. and these guys, i keep saying, as bad as they say, no they're not giving me inside information, but what they are saying, is jim, it's consistent. it's consistent with what i have been saying. it didn't fall off a cliff and i know that that's not -- i mean, look at that list of stocks walt disney went to $98 yesterday. goldman sachs, i don't know how good their quarter is, but they're taking 3% from visa. anyway, everybody wants visa >> you sold some boeing? >> i said to myself, i refuse to lose any more money. there's a two-horse race just two horses. there's airbus and boeing. >> airbus has pulled ahead on orders this year >> i said enough, calhoun, enough i have better opportunities. i'm using it towards the funds it's a major defeat to do that i don't mind saying that

i told that to the people in the club honest managers admit they made mistakes okay i made a mistake i thought boeing was a better run company. i thought boeing was the company that saved my father in new gu guinea it was not the same company. it's a different company it's a hands-off company and i found it unacceptable to continue to put charitable trust money in that company. without them being able to do dreamliner, without getting china orders the last one was the defense orders were so bad look, i can sit here and be a complete moron and close my eyes to it or say, you know what, i'm going with jenson wang i'm going with vidia so let them take boeing up i hope it goes up. i hope it goes to $200, but i have better things to buy. >> we got to mention energy. you have crude almost back to $110 you have gas futures record high gas crack spreads at a record high that's going to get some

attention. >> buy valero. that's because the diesel fuel i mean, last night, i had -- i had the real faang on, diamondback. they are making so much money that i'm not saying you should be investigating, but they're not spending a lot they're making fortunes, doing a variable dividend. if you want a faang to buy, you buy diamondback. buy diamondback here because the xpr, the president is -- it doesn't last forever we're at dangerous levels for the xpr. they can't seem to keep the price of oil down, and faang has more than anyone so diamondback is a great story. just a great story >> diesel inventories are something we're going to watch all summer long. jim, the casinos, is this a bounce on the hopes of a lockdown lift? >> absolutely. people believe now the lockdown lift could happen in the next

two weeks. it could happen this weekend there the problem is all the public health people i deal with are saying we don't know why they're doing what they're doing. we just don't know why they're doing it now, in the last -- i'm sure everyone who is watching in the last days knows two or three people who got omicron if you have, if you have the vaccine, then you have to find out by using the abbott labs test i have been far more sick with laryngitis than i have with omicron. omicron immunity lasts for four months then you have to have the booster. why do they not tell you that? i don't know, they're cowards. i have done more work on this than they have, it's frightening. four months after omicron, you need a booster if you do it, you stay out of the hospital that's what you want to do chiba's policy, there will be people -- we will discover that there are people who vote for president xi we will discover that president xi is not immune we will discover that vladimir putin is not immune. these people are not immune

because they do not -- you can have famine. you can have revolution. you can have mothers against wars those of us who remember vietnam and saw what happened to president nixon and how he had to pull out of vietnam and people said, wait a second, that will never happen. i have to tell you, the footage out of kharkiv is just incredible that's a russian army in retreat. not unlike the '94-'95 army in chechnya, not the 2000 army where putin decided to level grozny this is 1994-1995 russian army that went with its tail between its legs >> it didn't stop yellen from saying the looming food crisis is going to get worse. >> she's right i can't believe tyson foods had a slowdown in the price of chicken, pork, beef, but we have 13% of the world's calories offline, but people still aren't trading down

i had moulson on last night, people are still not trading down in beer they're still premiumizing in beer moulson, very good story doing a lot of good things miller is doing much better. and they have, by the way, the topa cheecho, that's going to be the hottest drink for the sucher >> you want to focus on real companies with real things what do you do with the firm this morning >> i talk to max a lot max had very few bad -- almost no bad buy now pay later he even had an aaa abs, asset back, of his owns. and max is good. they had very few defaults that stock can go higher max is a very smart man who really has good analytics about who should be able to get -- by the way, and if you don't pay, he works it out. >> they did have a small credit provision as opposed to a

tailwind last year they extend the shopify partnership. >> that was very important >> gmv was in line, revenue ahead. >> he did great. >> this was max last night take a listen. >> consumer is alive and well. they're shopping, they're buying they're paying their loans at least to affirm quite well, and generally speaking, things are going koaccording to plan. the stock market does not seem to have an actual impact on our underlying business which is performing really well >> by the way, he said that amazon is doing quite well obviously, shopify when harley was on "mad money" last week, he was saying yes, we know things were slow, but we're number two. what matters to me is max has an artificial intelligence model which has correctly proven you should be able to get buy now pay later. there was a ridiculous piece about how his late charges are

making all the money he doesn't charge late fees. >> sort of the whole point >> the one thing about the car that doesn't fly it was such an insult, the journalism we're seeing right now is amazing the whole point of max is he doesn't charge late fees and it said the hidden late fees -- there are no hidden late fees. >> his view on the consumer is going to get ratified next week or not with home depot, walmart, target, ckohl's >> i planted saturday and everything i planted was in the woods blowing away on sunday you need good weather. if you get good weather, you can come in and buy home depot it's that simple >> really? >> this is your last weekend you can plant really this and next weekend. and you know, you have to plant or else you miss the season. >> b of a this morning makes the point for those looking for a

bounce, should be heartened by the unwinding of the short yen trade and to a degree the long commodity trade. although today you wouldn't really notice it >> look, i think we come in today and the world didn't end i think a lot of people felt that stable coin was going to be the next -- i was going back and forth with my nephew, which is also my head writer and my only writer, and he took out, i do a draft. it's called masonizing i said look, this could be as bad as housing and the draft came back and said of course it's nowhere near as bad as housing i never bet against my nephew. he said how could you possibly put this stable coin in with the destruction of america through housing? and he's right 2007, 2009, no but we do have a 2000 problem, where there's a lot of money in things there was a piece out today about toast. which is toast is a point of sale >> they guide above. >> they guided above, but their

cash flow is down dramatically their free cash flow and i remember my old restaurant, we had one of these guys, another guy comes in and says listen, i want to pull your point of sale out and put in another point of sale. how much does that cost? we're giving it away how do you make the money? we're figuring that out. that's a bad business. point of sale is a bad business. don't own those stocks >> you're not a fan of toast here >> no, because in the end, everybody wants to be toast. you should be a fan of doordash if you like toast. i like tony shu. i spent time with him. i think tony is one of the hardest working people on earth. they're going to win airbnb is going to win but you have to go through some pain while they win. because they have to spend a lot of money to win. i don't know if you watch brian chesky's film about what airbnb is doing i thought it was interesting about going by destination

>> you can do architecture you can do - >> i liked it. >> a bunch of new features >> a lot of people said, jim, you just like brian too much i have a graduation coming up in washington, d.c. i always stay at the same hotel. and my wife said we're not staying at a hotel, we're staying at an airbnb we're going to go and find places that look like castles in georgetown thank you, brian chesky. >> a look at airbnb. we mentioned the casinos, responding to some optimism on china lockdown and talking more about the pandemic's affect on china is eunice yoon with a look at the economic impact of the restrictions >> hey, guys i'm on a street with a lot of shops here in beijing. the sign behind me is becoming a very familiar sight. it says closed until further notice because of the pandemic so beijing is not officially on lockdown, but it definitely feels like it.

streets are very, very quiet, even though it's a friday night. most people have been mandated to work from home. offices, shopping malls, everything has been shut and then it's also really difficult to get around because public transport as well as taxis are heavily restricted now, the most heavily affected really have been a lot of the small businesses, and these small businesses are major employers in the city. one of the reasons why the leadership has been really concerned about jobs so i have been talking to a lot of little street vendors some have been doing whatever they can to try to survive that generally has meant we have seen curbside, a lot of small vendors putting whatever they can, sometimes even entire spreads of their menus, trying to sell their goods on the sidewalk one noodle seller who normally would be bustling and busy in an office tower said that she was only able to sell about 5% of

her normal sales there hasn't been a whole lot of relief for these people. in fact, today, beijing said that there were only 51 new infections however, the restrictions just keep coming. and the one that a lot of people here are talking about now is that china has said it's going to bar overseas travel for many of its citizens because it's mainly focused on non-essential travel and the government actually had denied today reports that some of their authorities have actually snipped up and cut up some passports of chinese travelers who have returned to the country when they came -- once they arrived at the airport. >> we're seeing headlines over here, we're seeing predictions from companies that the lockdowns get lifted in june we're seeing headlines about victory over the virus being announced in the weeks to come

is that being telegraphed to local residents in any way >> it is in that we have heard from city officials say in shanghai have floated the idea that maybe by some time in may, there could be an end to this lockdown period. also, there's been projections for possibly in june, just because the numbers do keep going down, but it's still very difficult to say for example, here in beijing, there have been many more buildings that are going into lockdown and the way the lockdown period works is that if one positive case is in your building, then the building is locked down for 20 days. and if there are any other new infections that come up within that period, another ten days is added to that building so you could see how the 20 days plus the 10 days plus another 10 days really adds up for a long period of time which is why the whole city is on edge and people are stockpiling. >> china is a great and powerful

country, and an advanced country with a decent medical care system they have biontech if they wanted to use it they could make it so omicron is like us, where you take a couple days off and then you're back at work i still do not understand why they do not adopt a western way of doing things because then this would end and they would go back to having great growth. what is keeping them from adopting a western style of medicine >> i think you just answered your own question. and that is that you describe it as a western style solution. which the current administration is showing that it's allergic to so especially because this year, president xi jinping is supposed to be stepping in with a political reshuffle towards the end of the year, possibly an unprecedented third term, maybe going beyond that. with that in mind, the idea that a foreign solution can now be

the way for china after the messaging for years has been that the chinese way of zero covid has been very successful compared to what is seen as a kind of a messier way, kind of live with the virus of the west. this is just not palatable in this political environment >> incredible. incredible how unfortunate and ill-advised their strategy is. great country. >> your reporting is so valuable to us here stateside >> a quick reminder, you can get in on the cnbc investor club with jim sign up to find out more cnbc.com/jointheclub use the qr code on the screen. before we go to break, we did get powell confirmed yesterday the vote, 80-19 and then he gave an interview to npr saying if things get worse, we're prepared to do less if things get better, prepared

to do more right now, ten-year is above 2.9. back in a moment

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mornings where you've got energy and consumer discretionary leading. check out the airlines big percentage of gains although bouncing off of depressed levels yesterday, jim >> very good sign. >> delta back to 37. southwest almost back to 33. we'll get trading with jim in a minute dow's up 225

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i've got a couple of upgrades about krispy kreme. they're willing to give you a donut with the vaccine i think that's good. in china, that could solve the problem. general chow there they've got to do something. i wanted to come home, honestly. i want her to come home. i love her so much stuff she has to say is so difficult. but donut, krispy kreme, hspc

likes it with a name like that, it's got to be good i have zebra, which is a point of scale company then hostess twinkies. they're so bad for you i had a donut that had caffeine in it. i didn't sleep for three days. >> but to your earlier point, the key to the market is not in these names. >> no. the key to the market is to go back and look at the fundamental companies that are doing quite well and have been totally lost in this fray about sand bank and robinhood. is coinbase okay and whether there's tether we've got to get away from that. we've got really good companies doing really good things stocks have come down dramatically >> got a good weekend planned, i hope >> i sure do cbs book coming out. very positive. >> we will see you tonight and

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good friday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. the bulls trying to put a little polish on this another losing week one of the worst since january you've got the s&p up about 63 points dow 32 k, we're flirting with 4k consumer sentiment out a couple of minutes ago and rick santelli's got it. hey, rick. >> yes, carl, a big miss here. expecting a read in the neighborhood of 64.0 we ended up with 59.1. a huge drop. this is the lowest of the year and it u serps at 59.4 we had in march. granted, it's preliminary and things could change following 65.2 if you look at current conditions, also a miss at 63.6.

that follows 69.4 last month's final. what lies ahead on expectations? a real big miss here 63.6 versus 62.5 now to the inflation numbers, shall we 5.4% on the one-year inflation outlook. that matches last month and both those reads are the highest since, well, 1981. and if we go back on the five to ten-year rate, it's been 3% for several months running january was 3.1. that was an 11-year high we see interest rates have jumped back up after a couple of day reprieve, but we are still well off a 2.92% on ten years that 320 intraday high from monday morgan, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you. we're 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three big movers that we're watching we're going to start with affirm

soaring after reporting a smaller than expected loss the buy now pay later company also raising its full year revenue outlook. the stock is up almost 27% right now. keep in mind, it's still down about 75% year-to-date plus, robinhood shares also surging after ftx founder revealed a 7.6% stake in the company disclosed by the way, via a deregulatory form when there's possibility of taking on an active investor role. stock is currently trading up almost 20% and making the crypto exchange billionaires robinhood's third largest shareholder, those are down 42% year-to-date speaking of crypto, we're going to end with micro strategy and what's been a volatile week. dropping more than 25% on both monday and wednesday amid the broader crypto market's tumult

up about 27, 27.5%, carl >> meantime as you know, it's been a wild week for the markets. yesterday, fed chair powell said he can't guarantee a soft landing. steve liesman joins us now on his confirmation and some media he did after that. >> yeah, and the outlook for rates here, carl whether there's a soft landing or not as he said, is possible, but not assured. it's going to depend on how high rates go and how fast, but neither powell nor any fed official has explained with much precision just how much rates have to rise to beat back inflation and there's speculation they may go further than the market has priced in. hitting a terminal rate or the highest rate in this cycle of 3% in august of 2023. that would mark one of the most aggressive rate hike cycles in decades, but could it go higher? here's some reasons why that could happen for example, the fed would need

to adopt a restrictive policy to combat inflation an upward shift in the long run inflation or the neutral rate. a wage price spiral and end to factors that have kept inflation in check for example, globalization, savings and progress on technology jeffries writes quote, the fed funds rate will probably have to rise north of 4% in order to break inflation's back however, recent evidence from unilever costs to ism reports suggest that the floor may be shifting higher. here's one way that perhaps you could get to 5%. a 1% long-term average real funds rate that would be normal 3% underlying inflation then the fed would go 1% above that before the great financial crisis and its artificially low rates of the past 14 years, the nominal rate was 5% or higher. more than half the time. 4% or higher, two-thirds of the time the real funds rate was almost

always positive compared to this long running negative rate of the post great financial crisis world. such a rate, obviously, carl, would present a long-term challenge to risk assets across the spectrum carl >> a lot of people don't remember those days, steve, but they're getting familiar in a hurry. thank you. let's bring in mike santoli to talk more about that and what a reeducation process this is for a lot of investors >> if nothing else, i think the range of outcomes, how it goes from here, is something on every investor's mind. i think none of that is happening soon enough or at least we don't see the direct path here to where you're pricing anything in. but it contributes to that general sense of things can break in a lot of direction diff directions in a sharp way and i think that's what's been hanging over the market. used to be if the market had this kind of setback and you saw

financial conditions tighten, you'd quickly get people saying fed's going to throttle back that's not really happening so that's why i think we're in the spot we're in. skeptical. i don't think it's this cycle's business necessarily to get to 4, 5% on the fed fund's rate you've got to believe that recession risks would intervene. the bond market suggesting that. that's the kind of stuff you put it on the too hard pile and figure out if the market's going to hold the lows here. >> that's been the take of the luthold group. economic surprise. and just now, inflation expectations why do you think they're not budging higher >> you know, i don't know. i mean, i do think there's a sense out there that we got the cyclical bump. you're dealing with fiscal contraction. the markets themselves, they really do have that effect you don't usually get much below a 20% drop in the s&p unless you get a recession.

is that because the market bottom or the recession didn't happen i don't know i think right now, you're in tactical mode. you know, yesterday's lows, we got down to almost 20% everybody, bull and bear alike was like, okay, maybe this is enough for now there's been some comprehensive selling. fear and greed index was pinned at the minimum levels yesterday. you've had people flushed out and you get to this point where a 7 to 10% rally from there is just like a blip on the chart and doesn't change anything structurally we've been in 10% range the last eight trading days so there's just a lot of play in the system here >> in terms of a lot of play, mike, we've seen the crypto market in the last 24, 36 hours stabilize. we saw that big fall in the faang stocks and big tech week. that seems to be stabilizing you're starting to see a reversal there, too. a lot of linkage between those two markets and margin calls and

the like and crypto and folks moving into more liquid assets to sell. how important is it for those big cap tech names to keep moving higher, at least stay stabilized from here, for the market to continue to bounce >> i think mathematically, it matters a lot for the indexes. they're very widely held i think people have anchored on them as are things good or not the nasdaq 100, that whole class of stocks relative to the broader market has just rolled over pretty distijtly. it didn't look like it's going to be the leadership group for quite some time and that's still where the greatest valuation excess was built up. what we did in the s&p 500 has gone back to something you might call a neutral type. >> well, as we said, back to 4k

and almost a 3% gain this morning on the nasdaq. talk to you in a bit >> a lot of neutral talk here this morning now to twitter elon musk adding new wrinkles in his plans to acquire the social media company. juli julia boorstin has the latest. >> that's right, morgan. wrinkles in the plan and giving investors whiplash this morning. elon musk sending twitter shares down over 10% after he tweeted out a couple of things his most recent tweet said he was still committed to the acquisition after a couple of hours earlier he tweeted out, quote, twitter deal temporarily on hold pending detailed supporting calculation that spam fake accounts do indeed represent 5% of users. with that tweet, he shared a story from reuters from may 2nd about a twitter filing that day disclosing that false or spam accounts did represent less than 5% of users. now, this twitter filing about those spam users came after musk said that a top priority of his

was to remove spam bots from the platform musk's tweets this morning raise speculation that musk could be looking for a way out of the deal he can't afford the $1 billion break up fee or could be looking to renegotiate the bill at a lower price tag. twitter closed yesterday at 45.08. its market cap, more than $9 billion less than the $44 billion that musk agreed to pay for the company. now with today's stock decline, it's now down about 10%. that valuation gap is of course growing. musk's personal wealth has also declined tesla stock is down by about a third since he disclosed his twitter stake, though we see it up about 5% today, this morning, so making up a little bit of this on speculation that maybe the deal won't happen. this morning's tweet could draw attention from regulators, the sec and ftc are both

investigating the deal and the timing of musks disclosures about his twitter share purchases and all that adds yet another element of uncertainty for the deals closing. all of this comes as twitter itself is influx the ceo pushed out two of the company's most senior executives yesterday. the executive overseeing product and revenue and he announced they're putting hiring on hold so a lot of questions about the future of twitter. >> yes more will be revealed. julia boorstin, thank you. still to come, bitcoin bouncing back above 30k, but still on pace for its second week of declines and later, we'll check in with apple's rod hall trading higher by 2% still losing the crown as the world's most valuable company this week. down more than 20% from its 52-week high we have a lot more "squawk on the street" ahead. don't go anywhere.

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bitcoin trying to bounce back this morning above $30,000 after tumbling to below 26k. to discuss how we should navigate, william quigley. also the founder of tether and worldwide asset exchange great to have you back on the show i do want to get, it was a wild

week pretty jaw dropping in term of some of the moves we saw across the crypto asset class in general. i just want to get your thoughts on that activity, the flushout we've seen whether the worst is over. >> obviously bitcoin is back up and most of the other cryptos are back up from their midweek lows maybe around 10% on average. today, some of the stable coins disappeared. tether's holding in strong i'd also say that we are in the exact midpoint between the prior happening, which is when the crypto miners gets cut in half that was may 2020. the next one is may 2024 it's may 2022. and typically in that midpoint, things get a little slow, which is what's happened now you add to volatility in the stock market, the recent

correlation between the stock market and crypto, and then you know, a stable coin collapsing and i think crypto's fared pretty well. >> to hone in on the stable coin piece of the puzzle more specifically, usd collapsed, imploded it's tied algorithmically to its sister coin, the luna. unclear what happens with that now. tether might be back tied to what you cofounded, tied to a dollar, but we saw that fall briefly to below a dollar. walk me through what this means for stable coins not only in terms of what it means for increased scrutiny, but in terms of the health of this market. noting that something like tether is backed by actual assets z >> yeah, and that's the key point. there's three types of stable coins. ones like tether that are backed

1-1 to a dollar or marketable security then there are stable coins that are also backed, collateralized by another crypto. those have tended to do pretty well because they're overcollateralized maybe 1.5x then you have uncollateralized stable coins that use an arbitrage mechanism to keep them stable those are experiments and the biggest experiment luna collapsed. so i think there will be rhett sans going forward to rely heavily on uncollateralized stable coins but tether is at $80 billion roughly in assets. it did drop to about 95 cents instead of a dollar. i think this was pure just panic selling and now it's around a dollar again tether has weathered the storm of course, it was the very first stable coin and i think it makes

sense to people because it's easy to understand for every tether, there's a dollar we hind it. that's an easy thing to understand luna did not have that luna was like a death spiral bond where you know, it was pegged to another crypto and as that crypto lost value, they had to produce more crypto yesterday, there was maybe 30 million lunas when i started looking at it. by the end of the night, there was 7 trillion or so lunas and that's when it all stopped so i think stable coins that are collateralized are very useful they're the most traded cryptos on earth and they're essential because anytime you do arbitrage, you need one side of the trading pair to be stable and i'd say they work pretty well, but these experimental coins, they have a lot of work to do. >> okay. so, it raises questions about just how speculative the crypto

asset class more broadly is right now. do you see this given the fact it is still young in early innings in terms of crypto currencies more broadly as part of the market shakeout and flushout if you will that happens with a new asset class or do you see this as a reflection as just how risky some of these coins are in general as we've seen this explosion within crypto currencies >> maybe all of the above. crypto currencies are much more volatile than any other globally traded asset class that's been born out of the last ten, 11 years. having said that, if you look at something like bitcoin, while it's volatile in i think 11, one or two of the last 11 years it's finished in the red. the only other asset that has performed better than that globally traded asset has been u.s. securities. so on a more, on a longer time

frame, it's done very well but in the short-term, particularly around every three weeks if you break it into that increment, it's incredibly volatile it can move up and down, 10, 15% in a two-week period that is, it's not an asset that you should be, you know, holding money in if you need it in the next year. i tell everyone who asks me if you're going to put money into crypto, you should have a five-year holding period if you need it within a year or two, it's probably too risky of an asset and it is an experimental asset too. there's not just one crypto, bitcoin or ethereum. there are thousands and thousands and a lot of times, there are innovations that are being applied and some of these don't work out so it is definitely buyer beware but the advantages of block chain and of crypto currencies in terms of ease of settlement, full transparency, low cost and just strictly innovation is so

high that i think it will be, it will be fine we will weather these shaky markets. whatever happens in the traditional markets, assume it's going to be two or three times the bumpy ride in the crypto market because it's young and smaller market >> william quigley, great to get your insights. thank you for joining us >> sure. as we go to break, let's check on the meme names. game stop and amc, both still on pace for some double digit weekly declines. carvana may be the newest name of the bunch trading higher anmer yesterday's gain at 25 meti dow's up 450. (mom allen) verizon just gave us all a brand new iphone 13.

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annpple shares are down ove 7% on the week joining us this morning, goldman sachs analyst, rod hall, who's been stubborn at neutral great to have you back good morning >> thanks for having me. >> we had you on back at 180 and couldn't get you to move off the

neutral then now around 140 do things look more interesting? >> well, i mean, it's, you know, from a valuation point of view, apple's still pretty expensive if you look at the s&p trading on 16 times maybe, 23 earnings, apple's trading on 25 times. that's still over a 50% premium. it's very expensive relative to the s&p and we think for what apple is, which is a company that, it's a great company struggling to grow and i think that as we move out of this covid period, you're going to find out that you know, what we've been talking about, that difficulty growing, the fact that the subscriber base is now pretty well maximized, growing at gdp type growth rates. if anything is probably going to trade down from here that's not just going to be great for that multiple we don't think. >> what do you tell people who think look, there's got to be

some kind of coiled spring, maybe small, if in fact china loosens up or is that, tactically, is that a move you're just not interested in? >> i do think china tactically could improve from here. we see all these lockdowns how long can that go on? eventually they're going to have to unlock if things get a little better there i think that could be a source of upside for apple. on the other hand though, you know, we're all sitting around wo worried about the consumer in europe, the consumer in the u.s. and if that were to weaken, then that wouldn't be great news for apple. i will say this earnings season, demand was pretty good apple did fine on demand all the indicators, qualcomm as well sonos just reported this week. all this stuff that serves the higher end consumer is doing pretty well right here >> the fact we did see this dramatic fall in apple's stock price this week, what do you

attribute that to? is there anything fundamentally that has changed in recent days where the company is concerned or is it really just a reflection of broader market dynamics playing out across multiple asset classes right now and investor psychology? >> yeah, one of the things that really surprised us in the covid period is retail investor parti participation in apple and a lot of other stocks. people just had more disposable income and your average individual investor went and put money into a bunch of things we think that's a theory. you can't necessarily prove that, but probably the case. so what you're seeing now is those popular retail stocks beginning to reverse i think you see it in other names, too tesla, nvidia, et cetera even crypto. you guys have been talking about crypto a lot this morning. there are a loft different asset classes, those are beginning to

reverse now. >> finally, rod, some of the macro desks are talking about apple as that last standing general in a capitulation event, people sell even when they hate to they talk about support at 137, which would be the 100-week. then at 97, the 200-week how do those numbers fit with you right now? >> we don't think, when you have me on, i'm really here to talk about fundamentals and what we think. the market decides valuation apple is trading on this huge premium to the s&p 500 so just purely from a value paation poif view, carl, you've got downside. but if you look at fundamentals, every time i come on, i talk about arpu's and apple's is inflated by about 20%. it's up over 20% in covid over the levels it was at pre covid,

we think we're forecasting it goes down a little bit next year but you know, that could go down by 15, 20% take your revenue down another 15 or 20% and you know, your earnings go down, fall out from under you and you're already trading on a high multiple so it really just depends on what happens to that arpu and what the market decides it wants to do with its multiple. i think the market is going to start thinking about something close to the s&p 500 as it realizes that our thesis on growth is probably more accurate than maybe the popular thesis. >> all right that would, like we said, you've been resolute and would certainly have big ramifications for indices given the weight it's going to be an important story in the future, rod have a great weekend good to see you. >> same to you thanks for having me after the break, we'll speak with kara swisher and get her take on the ongoing twitter deal itr.n that's playing out o

twte shares are down 10% right now. we're back in two. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

sweden is signaling it's preparing to end two centuries of neutrality in europe. at a news conference today, government officials released a report saying if sweden joind nato, it would quote, raise the threshold for military conflicts and have a deterrent effect in northern europe and tie to its external aggression. finland says it wants to join the western military alliance. brittney griner's detention is being extended. she will remain in custody for another month. she was arrested in mid february accused of having vape

cartridges in her luggage. and thousands of mourners came to eastern jerusalem today to the journalist who was shot and killed this week while covering a raid in the occupied west bank. some witnesses said she was shot by israeli soldiers. it has called for a joint investigation, but the palestinian authority says it will do its own probe. that's the very latest back to you. >> thank you very much twitter is plunging after elon musk walks back the $44 billion twitter deal, tweeting it's temporarily on hold due to concerns about the percentage of users that are fake. but says he's still committed to the acquisition. joining us this morning is kara swisher, "new york times" contributor and pivot who tweeted this morning chaos it will be, kara talk about what is happening versus what he should be doing right now? >> a couple of days ago, i said

he's got to reprice this and he's probably going to do something like that, walk away and i got a lot of response. i said twitter was going to be in the trench of other tech stocks if not for this deal so he was going to pay too much for it and he doesn't want to given the declines of value in tech. i think he's trying to look for a better price everybody knows there's bots all over twitter and social media. i think the issue is he's negotiating a better price and if he can't get it, i guess he'll walk away. and take the billion dollar walkout if he's smart, he should do that. then come back later when the stock stays in the duoldrums which is where a lot of stocks are. >> you mean buy on the open market at a lower price? >> try to make another offer then when the stock is cheaper why would you pay $54.20 at this

moment wall street has it $10 below that now it's dropping more it should be even further given how much value other stocks. netflix is off 75% great businesses like airbnb are off. why not get it at the lower price so he's going to jam them, i guess, then try to look like a hero buying it at $15 billion rather than 44 or some other price that's not, but that sets up a whole range of things including other people wanting. that's a pretty cheap price for twitter. we'll see what happens it's chaos, like i said, carl. brand musk >> oh, yeah. yeah and all on twitter and of course in the name of transparency i would imagine. or at least maybe that's how he -- >> it's the bots it's not the price it's the bots. that's why he's concerned about the bots. >> i am curious about the bots, i am because it's been an issue on twitter for -- >> sure. >> forever, right? >> right >> are the bots lucrative to twitter?

is there a reason it's been so hard to get rid of them up until this point >> it's hard to get rid of them on all the platforms this has been a big issue. a lot of this anger is started by bots and humans become a part of it. i did a podcast about it and everything else. this is a problem for most of these companies is that what is really happening, what is the actual use by human being. that's a big concern to advertisers and others so there's all these fake accounts that are just there for variants for some degrees and some malevolent. it's a problem as a business it's like having, i'm trying to think of an analog situation it's just fake is what it is so that's a real problem it's like fake subscribers it's not limited to twitter. twitter's a good place to create anger. it's not good for business to have bots, no. but this is well-known this is not something that's fresh and new. maybe he got more information

about the problem. twitter's tried to combat it, but i'm sorry, he wants it at a lower price. that's what this is all about. i'm sorry, i'm sure he's concerned about bots, but this is about a lower price >> yeah. and that's why i brought it up because i was wondering, he's starting to go through the books and financials maybe in a more meaningful way, more is being revealed and wondering whether there could be a bigger risk or impact on the business model there than perhaps investors know, but to your point. >> not if it was a subscription business i thought he was getting rid of advertising so what's the difference i can see them there with his half glasses over his eyes looking at the books this is because the price of this thing is too high that is it he needs a lower price and he should get a lower price because of what's happening in the market it's also happening to tesla it's going to be more expensive for him. he's putting his business at risk and tesla's shareholders are thrilled today it's a real risk

can't pay that much for the company anymore. and so he wants to renegotiate and this is him doing that that's the only explanation i can see. >> bots, sure. >> bots. >> response on twitter is so precious your partner, scott galloway, my deal to purchase the music catalog of rem is on hold. the tweet about being committed, we don't see the price of digital paper being worth the price of paper it's printed on what kind of hit does his credibility take, if any >> this happened before with the 420 thing a while back i think most regular people who are paying attention to money understand he can't pay this much so what he should have done is say these prices have dropped, i want to renegotiate the price. that would be straightforward i think. you know, when i did tweet this a couple of days ago, several people, very smart investors said he's going to walk away and reg renegotiate.

anyone with any sensibility understands that, especially with the decline in tesla stock. i suspect he's getting pressure from his investors, too. why should they pay $54.20 when it's worth significantly less on wall street and now less more. and it will go down further, by the way. >> that's thing really quick we're out of time, but what do you think is behind the firings yesterday? is that on the assumption that this is going to in fact close >> no, they're not making these decisions based on that. i don't quite know i think you know, they always have a production snafu at twitter. they're not moving fast enough to change. elon could tweet that and that's 100% correct kvo kvon, terrific he's tried to push out a lot of stuff. still needs more discipline. nobody quite understands it,

honestly because both these people have very good reputations. so it's just, he wants to run it his own way. he may not even be ceo so i don't even understand that because you know, elon's sort of, or sources said, which i assume is elon, that he would be the ceo temporarily and find another one so that's not good >> it's keeping us all busy. that's for sure. >> jazz hands everywhere by the way, he loves chocolate milk just remember. >> he does love chocolate milk not with a straw have a good weekend. >> it is delicious he's correct >> kara swisher. >> as we head to break, check out the biggest laggards on the s&p for the week, which is still poised to end lower. led by twitter, which is down almost 18% also cruise operators, norwegian cruise, royal caribbean, boeing is in the mix as well. down 13% as i mentioned overall today on this friday morning, markets are

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the recent market volatility dealing a blow to the pension funds that manage retirement savings for state and public workers and the outlook on those fund returns for the rest of the year may be looking bleaker. joining us now, elizabeth burton, retirement chief investment officer and she's on the recently announced delivering alpha advisory board. great to have you back on the show is that right? is that your outlook, that things could get bleaker >> i think it's going to be a tough remainder of the year for sure i think there's going to be some activity in the equity markets which leaves opportunity for relative value, but makes it

hard there >> yeah. so how are you approaching the market right now at least up until now, this year, it's kind of been nowhere to hide. we've seen stocks falling. bonds falling. on the flip side, retirees are facing 40-year high inflation rates, so returns are probably perhaps even more in focus than ever >> yeah, i think you're right. i also think if you're just starting to think about what to do as a pension fund now, you're in a world of trouble. you should have been thinking about what was going to happen two years ago, which is what we did at hawaii. we started to think about the inflationary environment we're big battleships. you can't change on a dime so we started moving our portfolio away from things like rates. started getting more defensive in equity positioning years ago. so we've actually done well this year we're flat in the flat quarter, which i don't think a lot of pension funds can say. based on what i read in "the wall street journal. >> definitely that is

outperforming from what we've heard as well. so then given the fact that this metaphor of a battleship and that you positioned yourself starting two years ago, what does that mean for the rest of this year and uncertainty as it unfolds? how are you thinking about potential positioning not only through the rest of the year, but for the next couple of years? >> it's a great question and you know, pension funds do their asset liability studies once every two to three years. we're coming up on ours so we may change our outlook later this fall. but how we're going to go into the remainder of the year. we have a ton of liquidity most probably have more than they think so we want to buy the opportunities presented to us and we want to provide when those situations arise, but in the meantime, we are looking to be more defensive. there's nothing new i'm going the say there, right defensive stocks, but also we're trying to hold on to assets with

cash flow. so we added more to real estate and we're trying to in our fixed income portfolio, have some sort of fixed income there, too looking for some floating rates. just across the board where we can try to pick up pennies >> right i wonder if you think there's enough runway and safety in a commodity trade of any kind, really from here on out. is that getting too risky for what pensions do >> no, i don't think it's too risky. i've never been a huge fan of a long commodities position. i'm curious are they being specific about which one they choose because as you know, different commodities behave very differently depending on the inflationary regime. i think it's changed even in the last year what you should lead into, right? i think there's an opportunity there. i would do it more on a relative value basis and a long short basis than a long only strategy with a 2% hold

>> what is your take on the credit markets >> yeah. you've had some interesting data come out this week that shows there's inkrcreasing fear there, right? i think ifor us, we're trying t stick to higher quality. sli slightly prefer mortgages maybe although the fed's about to have some action there which pay put pressure on it but we're going to stay tactical we have not changed our position materially other than going to more private and publics >> all right elizabeth burton, always great to get your insights thank you for joining us >> thank you for having me >> as we mentioned, elizabeth is part of a great lineup of advisory board members for our delivering alpha investor summit that's going to take place september 28th in new york for details, head over to cnbcevents.com/deliveringalpha coming up next hour on tech check, we're going to check in with former board member peter

churnen on the ongoing drama we were on pace for the worst week since january now only the worst week in a couple of weeks with the dow up 420. (vo) every business, big or small, coast to coast, needs internet that can keep up with its demands. verizon has fast, reliable internet solutions nationwide. so you can power your business to do more. find the perfect solution for your business. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

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can we at least split it? nope. unbeatable internet from xfinity. made to do anything, so you can do anything. this is amazing! . welcome back, transports in the spotlight amid rising rates in inflation, the cast freight index writing a new note this week, saying that theprospect of freight recession is now considerable the report goes on to say that, quote, after a nearly two year cycle of surging freight volumes the freight cycle as downshifted with a thud. the transport etf is rising today, up 2% but it is down 15% for the year, and if you look at the dow transports, those are down 21% from their most recent highs in bear market territory as of yesterday's close. at the top three holdings for iyt, union pacific and ups down

double digits since the beginning of april and csx is also sharply lower and, carl, it's worth noting, it's not just the freight carriers that have seen pressure, really since the start of the year, it's also the passenger airlines too but on the freight side, of course, even as we're starting to see some of these volumes come off we're still at record highs, depending on what type of freight metric you break out the question is going to be, how all of this plays out and factors into what we know is going to be and already is slowing economic growth. >> tapes right now got a headline about a takeout bid for rider, rider is zooming on that news freight is going to be interesting. rail traffic hasn't been as bad as maybe some might have expected at this point in the cycle, morgan. >> that's right. there's been this dynamic, though, in general, given the fact that we have seen the supply chain bottlenecks and transportation challenges, where volumes had been lower, but shipping rates had been higher there does seem to be more of a

normalization potentially happening here that's the question, are we headed for a freight recession, or is this just a return to pre-pandemic dynamics? >> right, and of course diesel is the big wild card. >> that's right, that too. >> meantime, morgan, it is your last day with us for a little while as you head off on maternity leave. we do want to wish you and matt the best of luck with the baby, a big congratulations to all of you, including siblings remy and nico. >> i tweeted that last week. and carl, i will miss working with you and david and the entire "squawk on the street" team on a daily basis for the next several months but i do want to take a moment to just say thank you and send well wishes, not only to our entire team, but also to the viewers and listeners of the show every day because as you mentioned, in the coming days, hopefully sooner rather than later, our newest member is going to join us, another baby boy i'll be back a little bit later

after the summer in the meantime, i hope you guys have a great show, and a great summer and that everyone that's tuning in finds much to be grateful for, even in the midst of this market mayhem. >> we'll miss you. we've made it without you for a little while in the past but we can do it again. >> thanks, carl. >> markets going to break, dow up almost 460 here as we continue to shave a little bit off the losses of the ekwe back above 4019 or so. back in a moment this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done.

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visit letsmakeaplan.org to find your cfp® professional. ♪♪ it's been a rough year for restaurant stocks, continuing to deal with rising inflation and labor costs. kate rogers has that for us. >> the big story line, some stocks and companies holding up better than others yum brands missing estimates due to weak sales and china lockdowns weighing on business the costs were up 10% in the quarter. more than doubling the revenue growth hitting its profit margins. ceo david gibbs had a silver

lining if there's a pullback in caughting back, it will be favorable to yum wing stop missing estimates this quarter, costs higher than estimates. bone-in chicken wing prices up 14%. it is projecting meaningful deflation, that's something you don't hear often these days for wings going forward. chipotle, another standout in terms of pricing power the company said this quarter it had seen resistance from consumer on price hikes, a similar message in q4 of last year the price hikes offset the margin high of impact of beef, avocado and labor costs. 4% increase fi end of the quarter. names like cmt, starbucks and sweetgreen have been popular but despite the loyal customer bases, many stocks and companies have been absolutely hammered. every restaurant name is in the red. except one name, bloomen brands,

the parent company of outback steak house. >> kate rogers, thank you. that's going to do it for us here on "squawk on the street," and that's going to do it for me for the next couple of months, "techcheck" starts now >> see you soon, morgan. good friday morning, i'm carl quintanilla with deirdre bosa, jon fortt, and julia boorstin. where does the deal stand? is this a live renegotiation taking place over twitter? and what does the sec think? jon, a lot of discussion about whether or not it's a better price for twitter, whether it's trying to stem the losses in tesla stock, or maybe both. >> maybe all of it, i mean, the currency he's paying with got weaker, tesla stock and then the comps on twitter, other internet stocks also got cheaper, he's going to do buy something for a premiu