>> john deere. i uglike this for the long term. >> jason, your final >> i like abbvie almost 3%. i think it plays well into this environment. >> i'll show you the market as we go out. officially a bear market i'll see you later "the exchange" is now. >> thanks, everybody let's repeat it once more with emphasis it's officially a bear market. the s&p down 20% from the record high the 24th. and dow is on track for the monthly losing streak. and says powell needs to go big and now. why the case for further tightening remains strong.

and it's time to get into tech, just not the regular ones. and software,b cyber and social. but first the markets. and dom chu has the latest numbers. >> we started off positive and we're not there now. we eare tilting towards the lows of the session 3832 is that level at the highs today, we were actually up roughly 43 points in the s&p. at the lows of the session, down roughly 77 sob, with you can see tilting at minus sfwoin towards the lower end of the trading range and 11,104 under performer. dow down 450 points at this stage.

1.5% declined. this season so far has shopped up to be very much about the back end of earnings season and retail-specific stories. if you look at ross stores, down 24.5%. this on disappointing earnings and maybe ey disappointing outlook, factoring in things like inflation, consumer spending they're taking down a fellow retailer in tjx companies. and walmart, target, they're still showing weakness and even best buy on the big box electronic side down remember, consumer spending makes up 70% of the u.s. economy. and tesla, it's tech, it's consumer discretionary technically consumer discretionary.

th thosal allegations could be down i would point out that if you look at the record highs, at this point, we're down roughly 48% after athe record highs for tesla. weal with see if there's any can kind of a bottom >> with the dow down 500 points. tech stocks with the nasdaq down from its highs and pretty much nothing's been immune. even the stalwart apple has been hit. the next guest has ideas that could pay off in the long run. portfolio manager at goldman sachs asset management it takes a strong, stomach, i

guess, to be steering the ship right now. where to you think are the best opportunities? >> thanks for having me on about the most complicated tech-investing environment i can remember and it's an important time to be talking about where we do see opportunities. we are still big believes in most of the tech ecosystem if you think of what's happening in semiconductors and semicap equipment. we think there's tremendous opportunities. we don't have an edge on the macro and clearly the economy has slowed and pretty dramatically out there as always, we're encouraging in investors to have a balanced view so, we are seeing a lot of

opportunities in software specifically i think there's a belief that software's going to do relatively better in a tougher environment because we feel companies are investing i don't know if you caught it but when bath and body works reported, they went through difficult times. what they talk about is they're actually accelerating invest isment to capture the opportunity. they're taking their tech spend up to 100 million this year because they view the imperative of making the digital transformation happen. that's what gives us comfort >> one more big-picture question do you think this will prevent tech stocks from falling into a post 2001 kind of slump, post

financial crisis kind of slump >> i don't think so. and there's a couple reasons behind that. fundamentally, these are solid and i'm sure we'll talk about microsoft. their businesses are performing at high levels and we expect them to. we've had an environment where all the tech stocks have sold off. we think that creates an opportunity for differ engsiation and there is going to be winners and losers and hone in on where you think we have insight. >> there are four. microsoft but hub spot tell us about the last three concisely. why these jump out as opportunity os

>> maybe i'll start from the bottom and work back up. kla is a semiconductor manufacturer you're seeing a move to reinvest in our manufacturing footprint for semis specifically kla is if wing to be a prime beneficiary of that. the this is earnings for a business we think has real opportunity, as well as tremendous effort. the fundaments are rock solid. it's trading at the lowest premium. a discount to the market >> not even a word yet

>> both have different demand drivers. but they're both generating free cash flows room for operating leverage. and they're often growing the business at a high rate. hub spot has been growing in the high 30s rate e. and they're driving up their price points we think they have set very appropriate guidance to take into account macro and uncertainty aspects. this looks like a really attractive entry point al allose so a midcap name but they're doing management software that's exploding as people go through the digital transformation wave. so, we look at those names and traced so much of their gains

with great fundamentals and think there's real opportunities. >> and a quick word of everything out there why microsoft? >> if yu want to talk about one of the begsst managed companiesi the world, look at microsoft they've done a good job scaling their business a-plus management team and move to the-cloud and the offices, with a move to office 365 it just continues to do very well and we have a high it gree of can confidence in their ability to execute and microsoft should be able to take other tech companiesb, as a well as a take share of the stock market as they can bundleal in low products and ones that tend to be more attractively priced.

>> for the long run. >> that's right. >> thank you so much for your time especially on another tough market day we appreciate it well, some in the markerate saying the fed will start slowing down tightening talk because of the growth we've seen others caution we should tighten more we've got some positives and a lot of signs of inflationary head wind. minus 11 in may. that was definitely a bad surprise unless the bad needs to be in the good column. core sales were higher than expected and that basically just matched the inflation rate the philadelphia fed manufacturing index slumped back to the lowest numbers. and weekly jobless claims

318,000 that points to more hiring in annall a ready stretched labor market all of the data is basically not bad or good. it just says we're stuck at this point where inflation is still a problem. the yield curve signaling a strong demand. still 1.8 points and that overall still points towards nominal demand growing strong hey. and now earnings show corporate america reeling from inflation even even names that were with expected to benefit. that call -- that has him call tooling go bigger. >> he needs to act and act now with a much tougher stants he could do a 100 basis points hike and he should after the super inflation dezagsers we just got from target and walmart, everyone

should understand the urgency of the situation. j >> joining me is the chief financial economist at jeffreys. can you respond to jim's point did corporate america show us that inflation is hurting more than it could behelping? >> i would agree ewith that. the fed has locked itself into 50-basis point moves i think the probability is extremely low. and that means not a neutral rate until september at the earliest and that means inflation will continue to build on itself. we obviously saw a lot of cracks developing in the retail sector. so far the tracks seem more in a pop structure than top-line growth the customer is very resilient they're demonstrating ability and willingness to spend and i

think that will continue the fed is going to z to work quite a bit harder to dampen demand and ultimately push inflation back towards where it needs to be. >> you think they'll probably have to hike north of 4% is that right? >> i think that's eventually where we'll have to get. i don't necessarily thing the mark 's going to repricing that soon i think we'll need a lot of data proving otherwise before investors are ready to take rates higher from here might take three months or more. but at the end of the day, i don't see how -- it was a control growth just enough to push inflation back down i think that might have been possible and they started last year when the labor market was approaching equilibrium. we already have historically tight labor market conditions

and everything keeps tightening. stabilizing growth i think they'll have is to create and typically ewhen you start to push unemployment up. it tends to create a vac where personal income slows revenue and that leads to more layoffs once you get in the negative feedback, it's hard to get out of it. it's a question of when is that going to happen? and i think it's more in a 24-month time frame but i think at the end of the day, the fed is going to have to kill the cycle. >> sounds like you're saying the cycle is about to commit suicide anyway >> i mean, i'm actually quite constructive on growth this year

i think we can still average 3% growth what typically causes recession is corporate america has been through a long margin compression that's burning cash, that sees the balance sheets and shifts to cost-cutting mode. i think that's 18 to 24 months away >> if they did something more shock and awe style, raising a full point like jim suggested, i mean, something truly we would think is almost crazy right now. do you think that would fix the problem? would it set us up for a healthier economy in the next five to ten years as a result? >> i think either way it's goin to hurt. do you want to take something in the near term or more pain down

the loine and i think the more latter scenario is more likely >> we know they'll only be pushed to move afwresz greszively instead of doing it at the moment. coming up. transport stocks have been declining despite earnings going up my next guest is saying the stocks will change course. the names he sees leading the reversal plus there's one group that has been a bright spot clean energy up more than 6% this week. lithium and battery stocks higher and as we go to break, a quick check on markets dow sinking 550 points s&p 3820 down more than 20% from its highs. we're back in a moment

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welcome back, everybody. plenty of people have been pointing to the transports as a sign the economy is weakening. gasoline prices a record 459 cent as gallon dosal prices is a 76 ner crease

year on year and the next guest says the bearishness is over done and freight shows the eeconomy is strong and still growing robustly joining me is a managing partner. let's separate fact from fiction right now. ewith eare seeing declining freight volumes, aren't we what's if wing on here >> quite the opposite. freight flows are continuing to grow -- go up. now woor we're seeing shifts and but we're continuing to see volume supposed laewe had all big huge problem congestion and 18, almost 19% more containers into the country in

2021 than we did in the previous 2018 that said when the beginning of the year, the first four or five months, tend to be the seasonally softest we've already proved 9% more containers through than ewe did in the last three months of 2021 so, arguably, not only are things not going down, they're accelerating >> and this is consistent with what anetta just told us why are the transport stocks doing so poorly? >> because the market always is trying to predict but it over preit tickets. what is steady eddie and consistently predicts every single upturn and predicts better than anything else, down turns is fraikt flow because it's the actual movement of goods. things getting made, shimmed, consumed frrt it's real

it's not emotionalal because it reflects exactly what the activity that's happening in the marketplace. >> we talked before earnings season when you said look, there's a couplel of names that will raise >> and they tid. >> j.b hunt and martin was the other one? >> that was the other one. ewe saw that a pattern repeated again and again. >> the group is town significantly. transports are obviously well off their highs. what are going to be the catalyst most would say eeventually they'll catch up with the stocks, etc. >> it's not true rirlgs just not true the market's preedicted 40 sgaegs 50 of the last eight recessions and freight flow is predicted

ten of the last eight recessions it's preticketed consistently, when it's going up, the economy is going up. consistently has allowed me smarter than i am about efor dicting the economy. because i know i can go home and trust it what is fear false imagined real. people are conjuring up all these things we welook at the underlying data, are just not true. yes, it's down sequentially. it's dropped pretty significantly. got 1-point up to $2.70 a mile that still significantly above where it was preecovid, a buck 45 a mile. and you might say oh, gosh,

that's horrible. when you back up you go ethat's pretty good. >> and some of the same phenomenon with target where we're over extrapolating to prepandemic levlts as a sign things are collapsing. >> if you look at the quarantine and subsequent margins, they were extraordinary and part a because being able to sell everything they haveb,b with everything they're getting in at full price you can barely keep the shelves full you can't keep them full now, when you're starting to catch up with inventory, and you're not moving necessarily everything, you say you can take 20% off. they start discounting it and they trend back towards the more traditional marges they produced prior.

and what tid they say? >> the margin reflengted higher markdown rates supply chain disruptions high cost related freight and increasing compensation and head count at their distribution centers. well, du this is not new news but the point is there's still, on top of what were strong elsales a year ago and previous quarter, they're still growing sales. so, whatever cost inflation was getting pushed into by retailers not discounting, that's going to go away. and we got run-away inflation fears. they're out there running around with their heads cut off >> donald, great to have you on today. still ahead, this stock one of the disasters down more than it 12%. the name and what's driving the

decline next plus snapdown 9% this week and down 73% from its highs. does that make it a cheap buy or definite bail? as we go to break, here's a look at the dow heat map with cater pillar, bogue and intel your biggest dekleiners, as the dow nears a 600-point decline. we're back in a moment (mom allen) verizon just gave us all a brand new iphone 13. (dad allen) we've been customers for years. (dad brown) i thought new phones were for new customers. we got iphone 13s, too. switched to verizon two minutes ago. (mom brown) ours were busted and we still got a shiny new one.

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welcome back to "the exchange." the markets are dropping boeing down almost 8%. cater pillar down 5.5% and nasdaq down about 3% right now. only 47 points above 11,000.

the nasdaq is down just this woke let's revisit what a brutal week it has been. we started okay. then sell sharply throughout the session. and then try to level things off before we close out. we're back to levels from november of 2020 right now the dow is down 15% this year. it's just kind of been a straight line lower, pucking up steam lately and deere is having its worst day since 2020 and the company was hit by supply chain issues and shortages. people piled in thinking they would benefit from inflation, higher crop prices, better farm income instead, the shares are down 14%. they say rising fertilizer prices are once again demonstrating the preverse

effects that it's having across the econam applied materials is getting hit. it's down 32%. they missed on the top and bottom line. and issuing weaker than expected guidance saying, you guessed it, supply chain issues were amplified due to covid issues in china. and palo alto networks the stock briefly up more than 8%, pairing the games. and they've now turned negative. well off session highs and let's end with apple it's trading at 132. on pace for the worse month since november of 2018 let's end this and get to tyler matheson >> let's see eif i can bring you good news. russia is cutting off natural gas supplies to finland.

after it suggest they pay for gas in rubles. all this follows finland's decision to apply for nato membership which russia says will upend relations between the two countries that share a border coming up here on cnbc the world health organization is holding an emergency meeting to discuss an outbreak of monkey pox in europe. more than 100 cases have been either confirmed or suspected now in europe. monkey pox has rarely spread outside of africa. but scientists don't believe this will evolve into a covud-19 style pandemic and patrons in new york city will have to continue to wear masks during performances. they've extended the mask manm

mandate until at least the 30th of june. they did drop a proof of vaccination requirement on may 1st. over to you. >> thank you up next. bear or no bear. whether it's a bear marketb, that's just simantics. he'll tell us how to position next lemons. lemons. lemons. lemons. look how nice they are. the moment you become an expedia member, you can instantly start saving on your travels.

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and deciding to kind of walk away. facebook's parent company meta dropping more than 26% last week... that is more than $230 billion in market share value. when will there be accountability? how many more people need to be harmed before mark zuckerberg listens?

welcome back to "the exchange." everybodiy lots of debate whether we're technically in a bear market nasdaq is down more than that. certainly the metrics would say yes. my next guest says midterm years are typically bad. we don't have a recession. let's bring in ryan, the chief market strategist. so, walk us through what you think is the significance of the 20% drop the s&p just hit today. >> thanks for having me. we probably are. i mean, your median stock is down close to 30%. so, it feels like a bear we knew we had a big rally last we're. and midterms pull back on

average at some point turring the year and we knew the first and second quarter are two of the worst quarters out of the entire four-year presidentiala cycle this quarter, the second quarter is actually the worst out of all 16 of the quarters in the four-year cycle. do we expect the market to be this rough no we said a pullback was possible. and one final comment. and we've had a lot of bear markets. stocks have come back every single time. just investors need to remember this is probably going to look back one or two years and it's been more of an opportunity than a time to panic. >> i think the question now is shifting to not bear market. if it's bear market, we drop

20%. this would have a ways to go >> we found nine different bear markets. you gut to go back sfwift years. only once have we seen a bear market without a erecession that was down well over 20% that was the 87 crash. the rest time down about 19% that's where we are if you have a recession with,b yeah. then you're down about 34% average. we don't see a recession hoar. >> why not and would it matter if we have a a poeriod of underperformance? >> inflation is clearly there. some of the retailers. and corporate america -- look at the one we're really watching is the three-month 10-year yield curve.

you need to invert where a recession is going to take place. more like a midcycle slowdown. ala 1994,b did a number on the bond market and the economy kept going. we see more of a slow down and that's what the market is pricing in, if you think about it >> thanks for having you on. and we're off the lows the nasdaq falling 6% this week, adding to already big losses down 31% from its all-time high last november. we'll get three tech names to buy and the social media name to aywafr aerhiquk break. driven insights to design hr solutions to help you engage and retain top performers today, so you can have more success tomorrow. ♪ one thing leads to another, yeah, yeah ♪

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ welcome back the s&p and nasdaq remain on

pace for a seven-straight day of losses our next guest sees opportunity within the broader tech rank and has three names to buy and one to avoud joining me is gina sanchez, chief market strategist and has three buys and a bail for us today. first one, microsoft why are you picking it up here >> so, microsoft is one of the names that it's held for some time and wey with believe is if wing to be a survivor. this is a company that really sell ises into a cloud story and we think people cannot live without, businesses cannot live without. regardless of what happens, recession and further volatility and even a rerating in the bond markets. we still think there's value here >> microsoft, down 1.5%. down 249 you say stick with it. broad com.

bit of a battle field. stalwart, one of the lower multiple stocks. cisco had a pretty bad week. tell me why this one you think people can stick with? >> broadcom is interesting because they're not as broad as, say, nvidia. and they tend to hit singles and doubles, as opposed to huge numbers but do it with consistency and have huge margins. when is to say the company has a tremendous amount of value and it's simply a better value right now in the tech space. >> and number three is also a tech name. the shares jumping today strong cyber security demand was this the one you like anyway >> this is one we like anyway. the guidance was a sweetner.

the trend here all of these things are part o the broader cloud play we think wore continuing to head towards as an economy. and they're raising fwguidance while everybody is suffering >> what does it say that it's one of the most difficult tapes we've seen >> that basically speaks to where priorities are right now they're about building out the ability to continue to do business and without cyber, it doesn't work >> and maybe a fwlglimmer of ho for everybody. it's a social media name it's snap.

down 50% and you're not buying what they're selling, are you >> no. we're not. this is a company we didn't like before so, if we hated it then, be hate it more now. partially because it's one of the companies that couldn't figure out the revenue fwan. and the time is really ticking town i think they're not going to be able to get the revenue fgain ad get positive earnings. they're making money but playing around with different revenue models that are just not yet working. we don't think the market is going to give it enough time to figure out its revenue game. >> would you say meta has figured things out, at least in terms of reporting, maybe not so much in terms of business strategy >> i think the social media space is one of those spaces that, because there's the

potential for regulation, we don't know what that looks luke. it could change the business models there are other social media names that have figured out the revenue game, unlike snap, which has the same potential and hasn't figured out its revenue game we think there's a lot of risk in the space space we tread lightly in. snap is one of those that lends to a bigger theme which is, right now you don't want to own low-quality stuff who have yet to be profitable >> dare i extend that to twitter? >> yes, you may. you may extend it. i would avoid that one as well >> as the board begs elon musk to carry forward with the sale thank you so much. good to see you today. gina sanchez coming up, atelecom, home builder and video game company

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exchange." the tdow's down 400 points. the dow is on pace for the eight straight losic ng week, the firt time since 1993. here with names, director of investment at captrust we're talking at&t risk, not too risky. tell me why you think they shouldn't be afraid to tip toe sglits happy friday. you're seeing initial signs of inflation coming to a peek and i know that's the primary a fear in the market today but when you see things with retailers yesterday, there is too much inventory they put it on bargain so, that's what we have to look forward to and the other big

component is cpi is housing. you got a 5% mortgage rate now 5.5% that's going to start crimp dg mand and that's the story where the fed doesn't have to raise as much. doesn't have to raise as much >> and that's -- i was going to say, you are like a homebuilder here, as well. >> right let me hit at&t first. at&t is the one you want to buy during a volatile period like this very stable business, as you might imagine, telecom services and at&t made a horrible acquisition way back in 2016 with time warner and the family unwound that we are now seeing signs of management that they chastised and stuck to their core business and raised prices. these are the kind of things that show incremental positives on a stock that's had a pretty bad five-year period >> so that's the case for at&t

we know it's just been a tougher one, but in a way, people might feel safer in it these days. let's talk pulte, nintendo and another name that you think screens well right now >> absolutely. so pulte, you'll be cautious on the timing aspect of this, but what you're seeing is a stock that peaked over a year ago and this is during a fabulous homebuilding market. profits continue to rise for this company and yes, we will see a downtrend in housing as i indicated earlier. what we'll probably see, though is a stock bottoming well before the next upturn comes. so if we see a bit of a housing recession in the next few months here which is probably likely, this stock could actually start moving up in anticipation of the n boom. >> well, the stock's been moving sideways the last several weeks or so, which is a somewhat encouraging sign what about nintendo?

>> tin tend nintendo is a ziggee the others are zagging nintendo has a new console coming out late this year or early next and they have the market to themselves and they're an iconic brand manager. so you have the mario brothers franchise, the zelda franchise and many others. they can continue to run with those stories and i'll give you a wild card. when microsoft decided that it was going to try to buy activision and it was making some concessions in order to make that close by allowing call of duty, one of their biggest games to be available on the nintendo platform. so you can see a bunch of new users on that. >> i like the wild card. what is the main discussion? do they want to hear ideas or do they want to make the case more broadly about why their holdings are about to keep falling in value? >> what we are telling clients is of course, there will be bear

markets. we are touching on one now, but a lot of stocks are already in bear market. i think the prior guest of yours said it is down 35% to 40% >> wow a lot of damage. the unprofitable tech index down 85%. so the fed has accomplished what it was trying to do, pop the asset bubble and that's giving us a lot of new opportunities going forward, but also the real economy stocks and the businesses like at&t trading at less than eight times earnings with 5.5% dividend yield and they're attractive now, as well, so you've got a lot of opportunities out there. >> all right christian, great to have you today. thank you for all your ideas christian ledoux it's up 6% and it's been a tough week we will reveal it and the other names outperforming in the space. that's next.

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>> welcome back. one more thing before we go today, a bright spot in the market that might not be on your radar, the solar stocks. sunnova is finishing the week up strong, up 6%. pippa stevens is here. >> stocks are higher in a week in what's been a turbulent time for the overall market solar, wind, hydrogen and lithium all finishing in the green. part of this boost is thanks to the eu announcing a new plan to move away from russian energy. they say solar will be the kingpin of this effort with capacity doubling by 2025. a number of european countries including germany and denmark also pledging to quadruple offshore wind by 2030. the region represents a huge

expansion opportunity for u.s. companies and the ceo is telling me that they're tripling down on europe now turning to specific stocks, max onsolar and tpi composites among the big winners this week and this is a big but, a week does not a trend make and these stocks are still down big for 2022 they face headwinds including inflationary pressures and rotation out of growth and the department of commerce's ongoing tariff investigation, kelly. >> pippa, if people missed it they should catch jeremy grantham this week he's bearish on the stock market and on the economy right now, but he's very bullish on resource names and on climate change so he called out lithium and a few other areas of opportunity here in the energytransition where he thinks people should put capital to work. >> long term investors say this is a buy the dip opportunity because there is a disconnect with lithium specifically about where we are now and where our

plans to be in a decade time and the amount of raw materials and the metals are important for future technology that will require this big energy transition push. so on a day like this and the market like this why there is volatility and it is definitely pick your specific companies because all of these names have very different plans and do very different things so you have to do your research. >> exactly i said to him, these are some unproven business models and he said there will be a high failure rate and they'll continue to grow their top line and will continue to do so pippa, thanks very much. pippa stevens, thank you today things like car and credit cards are starting to miss their payments and what is that telling us about the economy we have some answers on "power lunch" which begins right now. ♪ ♪ >> yes, it does, kelly, thank

you very much. welcome, everybody to "power lunch "qwest i'm tyler matheson the s&p is off 20% off its all-time high. you know what that means it means that technically the s&p is in a, quote, bear market. stocks drop sharply in afternoon trading and we have our eyes on them the recent selling so relentless that some stocks are trading like they're going out of business, but are they so beaten down that they're actually good long term buys and these are big names that you'll want to hear about. plus, is the consumer starting to crack pent-up demand has led to a surge in spending, but are there signs of a peak? we have realtime data from mastercard, kelly, later this hour. >> stocks are off their session lows where the dow was off 600 points right now a 1.3% decline, 420, the nasdaq still the worst performer downmore than 2% for the dow this would be the first eight-week losing streak since