it is 5:00 a.m. on wall street here is the top five at 5:00. futures higher president biden said america would defend taiwan. this coming after one of the worst weeks for stocks in years with the dow doing something for the first time in nearly a century. merger monday? this time a multibillion dollar deal in the semiconductor space. plus the state where it will cost you nearly $150 to fill up your truck or suv.

the price at the pump shows no signs of easing. looking for opportunity in the beaten up markets? of course. stocks where one bank can benefit from the big shift happening right now. it is all happening on this monday, may 23rd this is cnbc good morning, good afternoon or good evening. welcome from wherever in the world you may be watching. i'm brian sullivan thank you for starting your day and week with us let's get to your monday money and see if we can start this week better than the last one ended. futures right now are higher ac across the board by .40% now on friday, we did have a lot of big stocks. apple, amazon, others. a lot of buying momentum heading into the close

maybe, just maybe a tailwind this morning for stocks. a couple of hours ago, president biden in tokyo saying this morning that america would defend taiwan militarily if china were to ever invade. those comments are new we will see if they impact the market this is not something american presidents have said out loud in the past they are likely to anger beijing. we shall see last week, another miserable one for stocks and what has been a tough year nasdaq down last week. 4% the s&p and dow 3% each. both capping the longest weekly losing streaks since the dot-com bubble burst 20 years ago. dow off the 2.9% decline and the longest weekly losing streak since 1923 99 years ago wow. in bonds, ten-year yield at 2.81%. well off the recent highs. oil is back on the rise again.

$111 per barrel here natural gas above 8% the longer natural gas stays here, the higher your electric bills will be when you crank the air conditioner this summer. aaa national average for a gallon of gas is $4.59 that is up 47 cents from one month ago. be thankful for that if you live in california, aaa says the national average is an before $6 a balance ogallon you have a big tank and you go to fill up you will pay $140 to fill up the truck. better hope bitcoin keeps going up it is not right now. maybe a little bit rare morning action with not a lot of volatility. bitcoin and ethereum bothi movin up not by much. a rare non volatile morning.

let's see how things are shaping up overseas and some of the top headlines. julianna tatelbaum is in london with what is a mixed package behind you on the wall >> brian, it is a mixed bag in europe we started out with a strong start. stoxx 600 opened up 1% we have seen some of the shine come off european equities are trading off the highs. french market kcrossed in negative territory dax was up 1 app.4%. the italian market is down more than 1%. ftse 100 at 0.6% a mixed start to trade, brian. the context issing in interestig we ended the week lower last

week europe stocks are out performing the u.s. the euro is up 1% versus the dollar this is on the back of the unusual blog post from the ecb they took the opportunity to publish a blog post to clarify the path forward for monetary policy they all but pre-announced a rate hike in july and another in september. paving the way to get out of the negative rates by end of q3. no guidance beyond that. it is notable. a lot of ecbs are taking it into consideration. this is the bounce in euro versus the greenback brian, back to you >> central bankers around the world. st having to clarify in blog posts. thank you, julianna. let's bring it back here to

the states and check on the top corporate stories here and the baby formula crisis which has to involve the american military. silvana henao is here with that and more >> brian, good morning a military cargo plane carrying the first shipment from europe landed in indianapolis yesterday. a first step to easing the nationwide shortage. the 78,000 pounds of formula is set to fill half a million baby bottles and another shipment expected within the coming days. apple is telling the contractors it wants to boost production outside of china the move is at least partially in response to the zero covid po policy i india and vietnam already contributes to the global production supply chain. hyundai plans to invest $5

billion in america in robotics this comes as hyundai will build the first ever ev and battery plant in the u.s. near savannah, georgia. that facility expected to open in the first half of 2025. brian. >> okay. there you go building here in the united states everything going to the southeast. all in the south thank you very much. >> you got it. let's go around the world. a developing story this morning. president biden announcing a new major economic deal with asian trading partners to counter the influence of china in the region all this as he said that american military would defend taiwan if attacked or invaded by china nbc is joining us from tokyo. carol, you got the economic story. that is a big one. that will be overshadowed by the

comments from president biden about defending taiwan that is not something american presidents have said explicitly in the past. >> reporter: it was a real moment there with the president making news when asked if the u.s. would step in and defend taiwan militarily if china were to invade taiwan the president was very clear and answered saying yes, that the u.s. would do that the white house is trying to clarify that saying there is no change in u.s. policy. this has brought condemnation from china quickly it is significant because the president is not just saying it, he is saying it in the region. the concern is that it could really escalate tension. the white house is trying to say this is not signaling a change in policy. listen to what the president said and see how clearly he stated this. >> are you willing to get involved militarily to defend

taiwan if it comes to that >> yes >> you are >> that's a commitment we made that's the commitment we made. look, here is the situation. we agree with the one-china policy we signed on to it and all of the attendant agreements from there. the idea that it can be taken by force -- just taken by force is just not appropriate it would dislocate the entire region and another action similar to what happened in ukraine. >> reporter: now, brian, what prompted these remarks was a conversation over ukraine. the actions in ukraine are closely watched by china and said more explicitly than we heard him say that the way the u.s. is approaching the ukrainian clonflict with china

and taiwan in mind taking steps consciously that china would be watching every move that the u.s. and allies made there he is also saying that this is something that the u.s. is very concerned about. however, he did say that he doesn't believe that china ultimately would move in on taiwan >> under the 1979 taiwan relations act, the u.s. would help taiwan itself, but not direct security guarantee. i'll make a stab in the dark that the comments have to be clarified quickly. it will even enrage beijing. let's go back to the reason you are here they are trying to blunt china's impact that should have been the headline >> reporter: that's right.

this is called the indo-pacific economic framework the 13 countries, including the u.s., all agreed it is a little meumurky. they agreed on trade and supply chains and tackling climate change this is the first step and there is nothing binding in it it is a step toward what the administration hopes is some economic pact or agreement and future among the countries to stand as a check against china this is what the administration has been talking about in terms of economic security the u.s. and allies need to span together economically to guard against china. >> all right carol lee in tokyo with breaks h breaking headlines. thank you.

we are getting started on a busy monday we will take you live to the world economic forum in davos. we will have a one-on-one with dan jeorgen. and the beaten up chip space and the latest on that. and one stock that could be a big play if the mighty greenback is surging futures are higher 'rba rhtft ts.wee ckig aerhi is e the only thought that comes to mind is... ♪ finally? this is financial security. and lincoln financial solutions will help you get there. as you plan, protect and retire. ♪

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welcome back the world economic forum is back in davos, switzerland for the first time in two years. it is usually in january with snow now we have the sound of music energy security and the war in ukraine is overshadowing the event and any russian representation is absent all this and a couple of hours ago with president biden's comments from tokyo that america could defend china militarily if china were to go on the offensive. let's talk about it with dan yergin and his book "the new map. it is excellent. dan is one of the smartest people in the world about all things energy. one of the guys i have learned the most from in the last 10 or 15 years dan, a pleasure to have you on i want to talk about energy and

security policy. if i could have a moment or reaction to the president's comments in tokyo. i guess those comments will be walked back by the white house those are explicit comments from the president. >> i think the white house has already walked back because it makes no change in the policy. clearly that is not the way it will be read in beijing. it is all part of the kind of movement toward the great power competition and rising split between china and the united states which is the defining geopolitical issue for years to come >> truly is. we will see what happens there futures are higher oil is higher as well. dan, the one thing you have done in your career and i have learned from and you write about it in your books is that, you

know, people think of energy as a part of the global economy in many ways, energy is the economy, is it not the economy is just taking energy to make things that we can buy, sell or produce how frontline is energy security being talked about in davos right now? >> you know, you are so right, brian. it is energy which is the foundation and embodied in everything else. look at price of food. energy costs and one way or the other is 70% of the total cost of food. energy security may not have been planned on the agenda it is front and center on the agenda i came from the meeting with the german vice chancellor who is talking that germany had made a strategic mistake being dependent on russian oil, gas and coal

he said we will change that in a matter of weeks. on the other hand, there is a recognition of a big job to do and the repercussions. the petroleum minister from india said it is intolerable with the inflation prices. this is coming into davos. >> with respect to germany, how do you change 30 years of energy policy and reliance on imported russian energy in a matter of weeks or months, dan >> well, i think vladimir putin has done it by invading, of course, ukraine, and reaction to it i think he never expected that europe would respond the way he assumed given high dependence on russian energy, he would say this is terrible and wave it on and get on with life you see it happen in crude oil quickly. that is the one where you have the most flexibility for now

there is enough oil in the world. as whchina comes out of lockdows it will put more pressure on it. you look at diesel and jet fuel and it is an complicated with natural gas. you simply don't have the same flexibility because you are depending on pipelines instead of oil that can be moved around on tankers natural gas. when i talk to people here, the biggest issue they come back to is natural gas of where can we find gas to replace nord stream 2. that is causing the concern for the governments and industry and consumers. >> and what are they saying about that, dan? obviously renewables are part of the strategy renewables can be effective in many ways. the one thing renewables are not good at is storage that's the biggest knock on renewables right now

there are battery technologies coming out the biggest and best batteries for renewables will store that power for 8 to 12 hours. not days or weeks or years where do we stand? >> you can store in the autumn and have for the winter. in the discussion today, they said it is two or three years. there are other obstacles. one is ermitting one company can take seven years to license or permit a new onshore wind turbine in europe the other thing is the supply chain for reanewables are as difficult as they are for others no question that europe is going, if i say, step on the gas in terms of renewables and try to speed it up more offshore wind is very much on the agenda.

there is supply chain issues and lead times >> i want to be optimistic on monday morning, dan, but realistic as well. if, for some reason, putin's choice or sort of act of against the pipeline or one of the other ones with the friendship pipeline if they have a problem, per se, if russian gas were to tomorrow cut off to continental european t entirely, what would that look like >> you are asking the question not what you can or can't do, you have to assume what you said it actually does happen. maybe putin will do something with a nuclear weapon or cut off an entire country. you want to plan in advance and say we can bring more gas on from netherlands or 10% more gas on from norway

u.s. lng has become a part of the security of europe all of those things. it will take a real cooperation. i think you have to plan for that worst case happening. it could happen tomorrow or next week in the situation we're in i think some of this going back and forth as debating this or that, i think they need to plan for the case you are talking about. >> yeah. it is terrifying to consider from putin or from ukraine or from outside sources or forces it is a risk dan yergin, i love having you on on great to have you in europe. makes the hours easier dan, have a wonderful day. thank you very much. check it out his new book. still on deck, the big money

movers and big day for jamie dimon and jpmorgan chase i'll tell you why. the stock futures. the dow up we're back after this.

welcome back time for the big money movers. three key stock headlines. let's go stock number one is tesla. you may have heard about them. they are hoping to increase production at the shanghai,

china plant from 1,200 cars to 2,600 per day. workers have to live in a bubble until mid-june due to the covid outbreak tesla is eager to resume production if supply chain issues stabilize stock two. amazon looking to sublease 10 million square feet of space and end leases the excess space includes new york, new jersey and atlanta amazon reported slowing growth and weak profit outlook blaming it partly on overbuilding during the pandemic and stock three is jpmorgan chase. holding the first investor day in two years the meeting comes among cr criticism over jamie dimon's pay

package. shares are down compared to the big bank index. on deck, a look at what some may call the reverse wealth effect and why the fed may be counting on it to try to crush inflation. we'll tell you about it coming up ing up half the night searching for savings on your prescriptions? just ask your cvs pharmacist. we search for savings for you. from coupons to lower costs options. plus, earn up to $50 extra bucks rewards each year just for filling at cvs pharmacy.

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the dow has done something it has not done for 99 years. futures are higher. warning out about the economy's road ahead chief economist steve whiting is laying out the fundamentals justify the heavy selling. manager merger in tech qualcomm looking to make a move to the cloud all happening on may 23rd. this is "worldwide exchange. welcome or welcome back. good monday morning. i'm brian sullivan thanks for being with us let's get to the monday money and start this week better than we did the last one. futures are looking that way they are higher across the board. dow futures up 97. in the bond market, buyers

coming in. oil and gas and natural gas is the story. it is higher across the board. we are seeing the price of oil at $111 per barrel right now natural gas is negative. still above $8 gas prices continue to rise. according to aaa, the national average of a gallon is $4.59 now in parts of california, above $6 on average. think about that you have a big suv or pickup truck. it is near empty it will cost you about $140 to $150 on to fill up your tank in california wow. more on that in a bit. now to the story of the morning. president biden saying he would be willing to use force to defend taiwan if it were attacked by whchina. the president making those remarks with the japanese prime

minister a few hours ago the white house forced to clarify saying in part, quote, as the president said, our policy has not changed he reiterated our one china policy and commitment to peace and stability across the taiwan strait he reiterated our commitment to provide taiwan with the means to defend itself. end quote. remember, direct military intervention over taiwan is not american policy. under the 1979taiwan relations acted, presidents committed to help taiwan defend itself. the foreign minister thanking the americans for the support. and china, as expected, angry over the comments. america should not defend taiwan's independence. this overshadowing the economic forum. to the other top headlines

a potential deal in technology broadcom in talks to buy vmware. it is a market value of $40 billion. the apparent talks with the two come six months after dell spun off 80% stake in vmware. broadcom down this morning look at vmw. it is up 19% right now saudi arabia's sovereign wealth fund taking a stake in the fund owned by the prince the public investment fund paying over 1.5 billi$1.5 bstak in the holding company this is after being swept up in the anti-corruption campaign four year ago where he was held in a hotel for months with other officials and business men.

and new concerns for the economy. the national association for business economics survey lowered the growth outlook for the year the median gdp stands at 1.4%. down a full percent from the february survey and more than half of the economists polled believe the next recession will begin in the secondhalf of 2023 let's talk about that and get to the markets with the dow coming off the longest losing streak since 1923 and the s&p less than 1% away from being down 20%. that would be in a bear market let's bring in steven wieting. welcome back does the economic outlook justify a 20% drop for the s&p 500 and far larger drop from other stocks >> we have a good amount of

slowing to come in the u.s. economy and the world economy this year into next. we have higher interest rates. we have to discount assets with higher base interest rates this combination together does take us a good step back from where wie were during the boom year of 2021 we discounted a great deal already. i absolutely believe recession is a necessary component of how we get to a lower inflation rate we have a couple of really good fundamentals going on. slowdown in consumption. recovery of the goods in the united states. the sharp rise in imports. all of this in time will help us get back to the lower inflation rate if we take this and try to rapidly guess to lower inflation rate, then we sharply increase the odds of recession. i think we are not priced for recession. we come a long way to price in

that risk. that risk is present >> steven, how long have you and i been talking >> 20 years. >> 15 or 20 years? yeah 20 years i don't know about you i'm not sure i have seen an economy turn this quickly -- maybe not the economy fundamentally, but the sentiment turn this quickly in all that time i like your comments if you agree or disagree and explain what has happened. >> this has been a sharp about-face in the approach to monetary policy. let's be clear about that. i think we have seen a boom year the main thing that has happened here is two things with inflation. broad based stimulus too broad for external shock in the form of covid. we had very severe concentrated

negative effect in hospitality and travel and leisure we didn't just rescue those industries wit we applied broad based stimulus on to that industry. what have we done on the supply side we have a series of shocks that is impossible to import the quantity of goods that the covid economy and lifestyle shifts required you are up 50% in auto demand and now 50% in public transportation nobody can stabilize prices in that environment the way to look forward is we are seeing consumers approach inflation without help from the government there are no more checks this year if you look at the first quarter, federal spending is down 33% you have taken out that subsidy. that is a large drab on after

tax income the fed has never been able to address those before the main thing is the federal reserve said be patient. be careful foster a full recover. shun inflation and we need a rapid change in policy and k quantitative tightening. this is a real about face in monetary policy. this is what has gotten double digit decline in stocks, bonds and 20-year high >> we sent out stimulus, trillions of dollars, maybe some needed it and some not now inflation hits and they need it is this it i'm looking at scary technical charts i had to close my computer you can make the case for more drops to come. is this it >> i would have to say the

forward looking news on inflation is clear enough for me that we don't need just a bearish view there is no other way forward. i can't tell you whether today the bears will press harder. i think they are in a battle between bulls and bears. i think sentiment is rotten. there is a great deal of reposi repositioning. the stimulus with risk assets is a stabilization of the bond market the long end of the bond market is higher probability that this slowdown is getting priced out i feel like risk/reward moved into greater balance at this level. i would be careful to say this is not the time to pile back into 2021 winners. i think we stay quality assets we were better off long quality equities at this level after th shock from policy.

>> it is great advice. listen, in ten years, most of those will be higher in ten knows steve wieting, thank you have a good day. coming up, we will try to find a silver lining in all of the markets continued turmoil. did you know the markets were in turmoil? robert frank is here to look how the stock markets drop to help tackle inflation robert is up next. stick around ♪ ["fly me to the moon"] ♪ ♪ ♪ imagine a community where millions share ideas and trade stocks, crypto and beyond. to the moon?

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welcome back we are likely to enter a bear market for the s&p 500 let's get a different take on the stock market's recent drop it is a hot take as bad as the markets have been, there is an upside to help jay powell and the fed fight inflation. robert frank is here with the so-called negative wealth effect could take a bite out of inflation. you are saying the markets have gone down, robert, and that solid gold lamborghini is now out of reach >> yes, brian. it was always out of reach, but maybe now out of reach this is because the market forces the fed hopes lowers inflation is the reverse wealth effect the value of the stocks and home

goes down, you spend less. research shows for every investment dollar you lose, consumers spend 5 cents less this time it may not work as planned. that is because consumers have a massive financial cushion. americans gained $40 trillion of wealth in the pandemic they lost $5 trillion in the market so far this year. they still have that extra $35 trillion as a comfort against the spending minneapolis fed president neel kashkari saying leading people to spend more and more confident and maybe the fed has to be more aggressive another reason that the neglnegative wealth effect is weaker is stock market ownership top 10% of americans own 89% of individually held stocks that is a record the losses are highly concentrated at the top.

by the way, that group also has the largest savings. it will not impact spending on the lamborghinis for them as much home prices, which do have more of an impact on spending on every day americans. they have not yet come down. moody's mark zandi says it takes a market decline of 20% and lasting for the rest of the year to have meaningful impact on inflation. brian. >> how much does -- do stock market gains factor into our thinking we know that home equity does, robert it is not like a lot of people are selling stocks it is a psychological thing. in your years and decades of doing this, how much does it make us feel better about the eco economy? >> positive wealth effect which is the flip side, is every dollar we gain, we spend an

extra 2 to 3 cents there is a positive component on the way up and negative on the way down the reverse wealth effect is stronger impact because we don't like losing money as much as we like gaining money you know, on the way up and on the way down, there is a mood impact it does give us confidence to spend when we know we have that investment cushion right now, there is so much house money built up in that savings that it will take longer and it will take a more aggressive fed to get that reverse wealth effect to spending and inflation >> they were dropping hundreds from the helicopter. now they are hanging out of the chopper with a big butterfly net swinging to take the money back. we'll see. robert frank on the negative wealth effect. also positive to have you on. all right. on deck, the morning rbi and

credit suisse says a benefit may shift with what is happening with the dollar right now. the man behind the list? patrick palfrey will talk about the broader markets and your money. and all year, we are celebrating asian american pacific islander month here is former obama white house director kavita patel. . >> growing up, i had always tried to fit in and that meant often times not acknowledging my brown skin raising my 5-year-old daughter and she brought home a self portrait in class. she filled in the skin with dark color. i encourage my children with yellow hair, try to fit in she was proud of what made her different and she celebrates that in all her drawings

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welcome back good monday morning. let's see how investors are kicking off this week. today is jpmorgan chase investor day. the first since before the pandemic it starts at 8:00 a.m. eastern time we will be there to cover it wall street will hear from two fed heads. raphael bostic and then esther george and earnings from advanced auto parts and zoom after the bell. now time for the rbi random but interesting cnbc style. it has been a brutal year for the stocks, but let's talk about something going up the u.s. dollar. the dollar, if you are not paying attention, up 10% this year nearing 1 to 1 with the euro something that has not happened

in 20 years. these currency shifts are super tankers. they are not moving often and slow when they do move, they create a huge wake. credit suisse says this could be a good thing for some. credit suisse put together a list of strong dollar stocks 50 names they think benefit from a stronger u.s. dollar in a basket of stocks out performed in the weaker dollar basket do we have time to show you all 50 stocks? of course not. this is live television. we can pick out a few names. how do we decide to show you? we made a screener and picked the five worst on the list aren't you supposed to buy low no guarantee these stocks could recover. here are the weakest five of

credit suisse dollar sdtocks. carmax down 29% ho home depot down 30%. target down 33% it this year the worst two? domino's pizza down 39% this year and netflix which is down nearly 70% epitome of the stay at home trade. it could benefit from the stronger dollar. five of the 50 strong dollar stocks from credit suisse. if you think the dollar will keep going up or stay steady, which has been strong, maybe those are names to check out by the way, our guest coming up will talk about it it is his list that we lifted. random and helpful let's bring in now one of the authors of that report patrick palfrey at credit suisse

patrick, i hope you don't mind us lifting your list for the rbi. i thought it would be a good rbi. you are not saying these are going to surge, correct? you think they will benefit more than weaker dollar names >> correct i think the question is why do we think the dollar has gone up? three reasons. higher interest rate policies in the u.s. faster growth within the u.s a little flight to quality those three items are driving the dollar strength. what we have done for invest irre ors is put together a list for those sensitive to allow them to take advantage of the dollar strength >> yeah. do you expect this to last i'm old enough to remember the parity 20 years ago with the dollar free money going to europe that did not last long

is strong dollar here to stay? >> i think if you look at the three reasons, the flight to safety can be unwound should we see the zero covid policies dissipate or war in ukraine dissipate. i do think the interest rate policy differences in the u.s. and the fact we see faster growth gdp nominal basis is expected to be 9%. those will continue to support a stronger dollar. the dollar has already moved significant amount you will not see the same level of appreciation. we consider to see it higher through the year end at least. >> now you guys recently lowered the s&p 500 target patrick, i think you and everybody else will have to do this you are still seeing 14% upside for the equity markets this year some of the biggest rallies in the percentage basis have come in bear markets.

do you think we are in a bear market we're down 19% or 20%, who cares? >> what is behind optimism for the second half of the year? >> i think your point is splitting hairs and it doesn't make that big of a difference. there is a lot of pain for the investors and the russell growth index. a lot of people are feeling a bear market if we are not technically in that bear market. i think really this has been driven by really elevated valuations that started at the beginning of the year. we started at 21.5 multiple. that is a significant rating during the period, the fundamentals are in fact we have seen estimates drift higher for 2022. i think investors are concerned about the deceleration and economic activity. let's be clear the economy is deceleratdecelerg

the yes is are we recessionary i don't think that is the case i think investors have prepping for that recession gdp on the nominal basis is slowing. that is far from recessionary. that is what investors are pushing the portfolio for and we think it is overdone. >> because everybody thinks something will happen doesn't mean it will happen. let's hope it doesn't. patrick palfrey, we are glad you happened for the rbi patrick, thank you very much folks, thank you amazing how fast the show goes thanks for watching us on "worldwide exchange. we will see you tomorrow we're glad you're up and "squawk box" is up next. have a great day your doctor gives you a prescription. “let's get you on some antibiotics right away.”

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good morning futures pointing to a slight gain after the brutal week that saw major indexes drop 3%. rising from the dead really on friday pretty good showing for the dow. closed higher. nasdaq paired losses not bad on friday. we'll show you what is moving right now. >> compared to earlier in the session. >> friday was amaziamazing. dow closed up. just tried and tried breaking overnight president biden said the u.s. would defend taiwan militarily if china invades go live to beijing for reaction. plus, world leaders and ceos

gathered in the swiss alps andrew has a lineup in davos i see green. i don't see any snow i guess that makes sense not australia. starting with the bank of america ceo brian moynihan straight out of the box. "squawk box" starts right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick with joe kernen andrew ross sorkin is reporting live from davos this morning we will get to him in a minute people have been concerned about the markets. this morning, there are green arrows dow futures indicated up 163