couple of years. >> i hope you will all join me in "overtime" as professor sea gl joins me. woe have a look at the market at large as with well a dow has a loss of 250. it's hanging in pretty well all things considered. nasdaq down nearly 3%. i will see you in a few hours. "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ thank you, with scott. hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans and there are so many trouble spots in the marketb, it's hard to pick are to start from snap to aber kraumby, the nasdaq is bearing the brunt of the selling pressure, with eefen though bauntd yields are also sinking. new home sales plunging last month. are we with headed for recession or is this just a post pandemic reset? we have your playbook for what is wurging right now and a deeper dive into what's ailing the social media with us.

and the internet advertising boom is over, what's next? >> toll brothers, dicks sporting goods and nordstrom will preview in earnings exchange bob. >> two steps forward and one step back. we can't put together a string of positive days for the s&p 500. i want to point out 3900 exactly where we are right now that was the old closing low that was on thursday so, we're sitting essentially at a closing low that we saw last week in terms of what's moving today, i can't help notice big cap tech stocks are weak. we have real mega cap names. for example meta and alphabet. meta down somewhat in relation to the snap news but semiconductors have been weak throughout the day and

nvidia and micron leading the way. after a horrendous weekb, they have been much more stable but not enough to offset some of the big declines we're seeing in the more cyclical parts of the market we talked about snap macro deterioration. costs are up looks like advertising is getting cut. stocks are out there i want to note these new home sale numbers these were quite shocking and a real wake-up call to the idea something seems to be going on with the consumer or not they're going to have earnings after the bell they're one of the big luxury home builders out there. their contract price is very, very high. so, here you see the new home sales that surprised me. april 2012 this is the number 5091,000 that's an enormous miss.

january 2021, that was the pandemic high that we had for sales and the pandemic low was april 2020, exactly 2 years ago, 582,000. the important point is is we're essentially back in new home sales near the pandemic lows toll brothers is go tag be after the close. they are the big luxury ebuilder their average home sale is way higher than most home builders what i'm curious about is what extent, if any, there's a slowdown in the market at all, which would confirm what we see in the april numbers >> we with really saw markets react, especially treasury markets. it really started this morning with the global pmis which came in soft everywhere and especially in the uk their composite slipped sigs

points to a lefl of around 51 just above the level of contraction. then you go eto the u.s. these are the flash ones we get the official ones in about a week or two. the flash one that was specially for u.s. services -- i should put this in the bad category falling from a level of 56 to 53 it was worse than expected then with we had the richmond fed. second biggest monthly drop ever it was witexpected to be positi ten. new home sale ises plunge. but we're not really seeing much slippage in the average home price. that's a major disappointment for the market and ceo confidence has everybody talking. it plunged to a level of 42 from 57 and to that point, best buy this morning warned that macro conditions have worsened since their march guidance joining me is frances donald

she's been warning the fed is is being too hawkish. the chief global strategist. are markets correct now to price out the odds of a half point rate hike in september >> well, yes and this is the point of the pause i think is most important i have still two more big rate hikes from the fed they're going to have plenty of data across a range of indicators from inflationesh pegitations to actual inflations and a breadth of global and domestic data that will give them cover for a pivot does that mean they're done? i would point out that septembe leagues like a pause we have treasure yields falling and at the same time, inflains are not that high. we're off the highs but they're still at elevated levels and i'm surprised we're not see

issing those drop more if we are expecting a macro eslowdown. >> we are watching the five-year with 10-year break evens. this is the beginning of the trend. once again puts the fed in a difficult situation. that's why i'm trying to move the focus away from the fed to what is growth doing to me, it's responding a lot more to the material growth slowdown that's likely to persist. that's going to move on growth and typically when the fed hikes into weakinness, with we see 10 year-year-olds decline so, yes, we need to know what the fed is doing but getting a sense of what growth will do in europe, asia and the united states is probably your best leading market indicator as opposed to thinking so and so from the fed said this and therefore we need to move the pricing around >> i wonder if we should be so

quick when commodity prices haven't slipped so much and back in the 70 said, and especially mid70 said, a pretty deep recession that kept accelerating throughout the decade. are we so sure we're if we tag be back to the prepandemic fed so quickly >> that's a good question. i have to admit economists don't have good forward-lacking models for oil. we know they're highly correlated with energy prices. this is one area the fed cannot control. we know the fed has impact on demand, which is impacting some areas of inflation but something less out of their control. it puts them in a stagflationary that's very difficult. until now inflation itself has been high. but with jobless claims moving up and small business surveys and the ceo confidence saying employment is going to get a hit.

then you feel pressure for umthe second side of the mandate and that's what's dpeing it gif them the cover and motivation to say we can slow down a littleal bit some of the hiking cycle >> and he said markets are imploding because investors are not confident the fed will stop inflation. the market will do the fed's job and he says that's what we're witnessing right now and he said how does the downward spiral end? when they put a line in the sand on inflation and says they'll do whatever it takes. what would with your response be is >> far be it for me to take the other side but to me when i league at this marketb, what is highlighting to me is it understands a material growth slowdown and recession odds climbing. that is the key story underlying the story. inflation will fundamentally decline into year end. what matters is the energy price.

we continue to ask the fed to use tools to solve a problem it cannot solve and i think we have circular logic of what the fed should be doing when they need respond to both sides of the mandate. three months from now witsz going to get nufrs about the employment side and you're going to have a different conversation around central banks >> the perfect person to have on today to make this case. thank you so much for your time. coming up, snap shares are down nearly 40%, on pace for their worst day ever the ceo warning of a sharp decline in ad revenue. we look at why they're all sharply lower right now. and new home sale ises are falling below expectations and gold does report after the bell wale look at what wall street's expecting coming up. dow's down about 1%. not terrible about 326 points it's a 2% drop for the s&p

11,00157 we're back after the is. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. ♪♪ making friends again, billy? i like to keep my enemies close. guys, excuse me. i didn't quite get that. i'm hard of hearing. ♪♪ oh hey, don't forget about the tense music too. would you say tense? i'd say suspenseful. aren't they the same thing? can we move on guys, please? alexa, turn on the subtitles. and dim the lights. ok, dimming the lights.

when it comes to cybersecurity, the biggest threats don't always strike the biggest targets. so help safeguard your small business with comcast business securityedge™ it's advanced security that continuously scans for threats and helps protect every connected device. the choice is clear. get unbeatable business solutions from the most innovative company. so you can be ready for what's next. get started with a great deal on internet and voice for just $49.99 a month for 24 months with a 2 -year price guarantee. call today.

welcome back to "the exchange."

it's a bad day to be in the online business world after saying the macro environment has deteriorated further and faster than expected. the stock is on paces for the biggest drop ever. it's down about 40% to the lowest level since april of 2020 the comments are taking down shares of meta by more than 6% and twitter which is supposedly getting bought at 5420 a share analysts agree with the reactions. jeffrey saying it's highly unlikely it's related to snap as we expect macro conditions to impact all ad names. morgan stanley say we expect all online platforms to experience a pullback welcome to you both. mark, stand up for your industry here what is going on >> well, i think you have to remember is there's actually two forms of advertising

there's brand advertising and performance advertising. so, snap, literally, the business iss almost 50/50. where they're probably seeing all the weakness is brand advertising. that's the first thing they're if we tag cut when they want to cut expenses it's definitely near term problem for snap but if you look at gaggalal, opposite. i think google's going to do just fine and facebook is somewhere in the middle. >> can we talk about who these companies are. i feel bad this is snap's problem when it's the clients cutting spending are they doing it because they have no more money or because they think consumer's eye balls are no longer on the platform. >> that adds to what i just said they have just millions of advertisements and the companies are not just going to pack up shop you saw during the pandemic they

actually spent more and snap benefitted at the time the biggest advertisers, when you're dependent on the biggest names to cut expenses and snap's vulnerable to that one thing to keep in mind also is you have tiktok taking who knows how much money out of this market and they're going to primarily compete with instagram and snap again, i'm not using a push on google but i think google is a standout nothing to worry about in the near term and for everybody else, it's good going to be rough. >> i wish we could see some proxy for shares of tiktok snap is trying to throw this all on the macro environment but is it just an excuse? >> kellyb, just moments ago, i got data that breaks down where snap gen rerates ads 13% is media

11% retail and 10% food and drink. so, mark is toldy right this is a company split between with direct response that they can more likely be resilient but if you look at the types of advertisers they have, they are fairly well distributed and that's one of the reasons we're seeing such concern about the other different platforms as with well. >> maybe you could repeat those industries because i'm trying to figure out if these companies are under pressure and starting to trim their advertising spend. are they triming it from everywhere, inclouding the real world? or are they saying this is just a poor performing part of where our marketing budget is going? >> my theory -- and this ties into what i think mark just said is is advertisers want to make sure where they're spending their money is having a massive effect they want to tie their effect to consummers making a purchase

subscribing to a streaming service and snap had talked in the most reece pt earnings call about the fact they saw financialal services on their platform and snap togged about it was able to move around those ad changes. is snap suffer issining simply e of macro environment or because of the apaal operating system challenges >> i appreciate you saying maybe alphabet is wrongly being sold off here what else can you tell us as someone who places advertising in front of people who with watch tv and that sort of thing? do you clients still feel like they're getting a high roi or they're all back to work

>> i think is how you can measure this is really important. i think one thing misunderstood is it doesn't effect your ability to get in front of the right consumer it really harms your ability to measure are whether they responded. the more dependent on mobile, the bigger the impact. snap is 100% dependent on mobile they're getting this effect from brand advertisers. they're getting this effect from an inability to measure as effectively. so, that's where both of those things are really harming them i think what this is go tag do for the business is during the pandemic,b snap started the pandemic almost entirely a brand advertising platform and doubled down on performance and did really well. i think you're going to see them do the same thing now. this just forces the management team to invest more to get

around the apple changes and essentially show their customers the data on how effective they are. >> very interesting. w we'll leave it there we really appreciate it. still ahead, stocks are selling off this afternoon my next guest says don't assume we're at the bottom yet. staying staying focussed on the u.s. and this is one of the stocks he likes, down 28% in a month plus financialals mostly lower but j.p. morgan trying to hang on after yesterday's big gains says they have a huge advantage over their competitors the analyst joins us to make the case and here's a look at the dow heat map about ten advancers there. boeing and amex are your biggest dekleiners

♪ welcome back everybody, want to point out wore with all off session lows so, not great but not as bad as it has been. s&p's down almost 2% sob, that's taking the brunt of the selling pressure and here are some of the individual movers we're watching this hour. travel stocks are selling off with norwegian, carnival similar story. big double digit declines. fintech also falling block about 8% paypal down by about 3.5%. about a 15% drop.

the k webb internet etf down more than 5% more than 6% now, 10 cent alibaba. zoom is a bright spot though extending yesterday's gains on an earnings beat and strong guidance the shares are up 4.5% and extremely impressive performance. granted prior to kryesterday's reportb,bb they've lost value since october of 2020. let's get to tyler matheson for a cnbc news update an iraqi manb, now in u.s. custody, wanted to kill former president george w. bush, according to a search warrant obtained by nbc news after entering the country in late 2020, he told a confidential source, he planned to smuggle people, including

militants associate wd with isi, to murder the former president they expect a above normal a atlantic hurricane season. they predict 14 to 21 named storms of those, six to ten expect tad be hurricanes. and severe weather continues to cause damage in the south and midwest. this shows the aftermath of what might have been a tornado in south carolina not sure yet where the service looking into the damage to make an official determination. tonight on the news with shep smith, the aftermath of a crypto currency backed by an optimistic mayor. the miami coin back to you. still ahead, new home sales plunging to their lowest rate since the pandemic began what does it mean for toll brothers stocks? and while inflation takes a big bite out of retailers, can

dick's buck the trends and before we go to break, during may, we're celebrating asian american and pacific islander heritage. here's former obama white house policy director. >> growing up, i had always tried to fit in and that meant often times not acknowledging my own brown skin raising my five-year-old daughter, it was incredible when one day she brought home a self portrait in classes and she filled in all the skin with a dark brown color i always, even my own portraits as having lighter skin or yellow hair, trying to fit in with the children around me i was incredibly proud of what made her different and she celebrates that. and all her drawings now include little brown girls so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq,

a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. (driver) conventional thinking would say verizon has the largest and fastest 5g network. but, they don't. they only cover select cities with 5g. so, for me and the hundreds of drivers in my fleet, staying connected, cutting downtime, and delivering on time depends on t-mobile 5g. and with coverage of over 96% of interstate highway miles, they've got us covered. (vo) unconventional thinking delivers four times the 5g coverage of verizon. and it's ready right now. t-mobile for business.

facebook's products harm children, stoke division and weaken our democracy. teens blame instagram for increases in the rate of anxiety and depression. it's not great when your customers are voting with their feet and deciding to kind of walk away. facebook's parent company meta dropping more than 26% last week... that is more than $230 billion in market share value. when will there be accountability? how many more people need to be harmed before mark zuckerberg listens?

welcome back if snap has reminded us of anything, with it's that entire industries could take down let's get to today's earnings exchange where we preview who

has a wide outlook and we'll kick it off with toll. shares are down about 5% and nearly 40% this year as rising rates haval cooled down the rising market. and done more than 15% thanks to high rices she's here with the story and our trades chief equity strategist. welcome tayou both what are you watching for? >> obviously after the horrendous new home sales number, toll brothers is the focus for the housing market and its earnings the average price from 875 to $895,000 the question will then be with rising mortgage rates we we've seen up 200 basis points, how will that effect the high-end buyer, the stock market, etc., hurt the high-end buyer. we haven't seen that really with the builders but building

analysts have started tonote they're seeing a tick up in the cancellation rate. we're hearing it from agents and other builders and we're looking for a potential change in fwiedance. they're looking for revenue up but given the pull back again, are they going to be able to get that change thegoidance going forward? and again, woe want to talk about inflation and supply chain. they talked about it in the last quarterly earnings and especially on the high end, when you think of all the high end finishes and extras you see. those being hit harder by inflation. >> and maybe we can show a lot of the home builders are trading at five or six times these are 2006 housing crash kinds of numbers this is the only stock of the three you say you'd even think about buying >> nice to be with you we actually like the home

builders for two reasons the supply dynamic are so good in home building and housing supply is pretty limited. toll brothers is down 40% from its highs of about six months ago. even as demand has remained strong we're not bullish. we know mortgage rates have doubled. but we think there's a lot of room for error at six times the error but look at the demand and exactly right. cancellations. if it demand remains robust, there's a lot of upside once the economy starts turning around. >> now that we look, catch up with the week, it's trading a at four times forward earnings. maybe the street is right to think that those earnings were going to drop in the multiple

shakes out that way. i mean, these are -- it's a good thing it can't go negative it's if wing toby close. >> it was a week or two we with got really bad numbers on mortgage rates and applications. i asked a couple olf analysts why are we seeing a buy into builders and he said they're so cheap investors are saying maybe they have nowhere to go but up. i know there's demand but i got to argue if you wunt it but can't afford it, then you're not going to buy it. you can have all the demand you want but it's getting harder >> remarkable time speaking of remarkable, to retail where nordstrom has been caught up in the recent carnage. it's only down 10% citi was saying earlier this week they don't see the company being able to achieve their full year guidance. court, okay.

i understand walmart, target, amazon too much ordering, pandemic, consumer goods but what did a aber kraumby tell us today >> aber kraumby has the best finish so, i'm going to be interested to hear what the trend look-s like we know department stores have come under pressure over the last several years we also know there was a bit of a resurgence and a pick up in sales. that's what the monthly reports have been telling us for department stores specifically there has been concern about nordstrom's management ability to manage through these difficult macro economic pressures and that was before all the commentary from the big players like target and walmart.

i think analysts are hesitant. there with weren't even preview notes for the quarter. i'm not sure they know what to say before it comes out. i think we have a lot of curiosity. ubs did monitor some web analysis and saw improvement in traffic and visitor growth for both nordstrom's brands and regular stores in the rack >> so, like you said the revenue is good. they had strong sales in certain categories especially. is it fair to say the reason those shares are getting crushed is because of profit margins, maybe in this case freight in particular >> yeah, exactly and inventory was up 45% and i think that makes, with in general, makes investors nervous, even if a lot of the companies are saying it's okay we have to get back to normal levels of inventory because we were light last year i think there's a lot of uncertainty, especially if

you're an apparel-based mall player eve an though abercrombie is able to pass on at least some of the costs in the form of pricing. some work to daon the back end operational side on a number of the retailers to work through these unprecedented pressures. >> where does that leave you on shares of nordstrom? is >> i'm like the housing where you have dynamic and positive demand issues. here you have negative supply and demand issues. these guys, just like dick's we'll talk about in a minute their margins were at records because cost uz were low and consumer spending is thorough th roof what we found is things are even worse than we were anticipating, even though we know they're going to get bad, they get worse.

nordstrom is much higher end retailer than target and walmart. we're afraid not too much. what i would use the earnings call for is for intelligence on inventory, promotion, store traffic and really general macro trends and squirrel that away to use for another day. >> 6.6 times forward earnings is what nordstrom is trading at remarkable keep using the "r" word because either they're coming down sharply or at some point the retails have to respond. and kelsey group say they face a challenging first quarter as consumers shift spending we had a vista outdoors on today. i think only down 17% year to date >> and dick's sporting goods has actually done pretty well post pandemic we know people want to be active in terms of lifestyle.

so, there has been a lot to like from a fundamental standpoint but the stock has been under pressure so, analysts anticipate for dick's sporting goods that the quarter will be tough, challenging. and williams says they're exceptionally well positioned. he says the need exceeds their full-year guidance because he thinks all aspects of the business have improved from consumer engagement to the rebasing of the revenue. let's look at what's happening when you compare it to prepandemic. up 30% 80% higher online. and i don't think they're obviously immune to any of the other macro economic pressures and again, it comes down the management team. how well with were they able to anticipate and manage the costs to run the business? ivan if sales were good?

very strong last first quarter and so, that's going to be tough. i think wore going to see negative comp sales. >> again, just to quote the vista outdoors ceo yesterday not only are they not seeing a deterioration in their inventory situation, they expect to see a tail wind of consumers trade down if spending comes under more pressure. >> that's kind of an exceptionalal comment. to say they're well position issed in the industry, i mean, things are really going to get ugly simply because they're a victim of success and now he's going to get flipped to the side and it's going to last a couple of quarters. that's what our research is showing. i would use it as intelligence and not step is in front of a number i like the company

it's just that it's in a terrible nairbd right now. >> thank you very much for your trade. another busy afternoon coming up the nasdaq taking another hit. down almost 4% tholows does this represent a buying opportunity. do i just focus on when things don't work, and not appreciate when they do? i love it when work actually works! i just booked this parking spot... this desk... and this conference room! i am filing status reports on an app that i made! i'm not even a coder! and it works!... i like your bag! when your digital solutions work, the world works. that's why the world works with servicenow. don't like surprises? [ watch vibrates ] proactive notifications from fidelity keep you tuned in all day long. so when something happens that could affect your portfolio, you can act quickly. that's decision tech, only from fidelity.

welcome back the nasdaq the underperformer again, following another 4% in the lows let's get to the biggest movers for aus. >> so, slowing consumer demand, loose. ing labor market, back drop, snap warnings, tighter financial conditions take your pick it begs the question is it all priced into the stock prices companies, one particular focus, companies with a heavy reliance on advertising are getting

slammed after the weaker revenue warnings trade desk is the biggest lagger, down over 18%. and following a slew of red across the screen and semiconductors like micron, nvidia, all lower. nv nvidia earnings are lower. by the way an etf that tracks the semis is on pace for the longest monthly losing streak since 2011 and already 28% off the year to date and 30% off the high much like technology in general. you have persistent worries and that's hitting chinese tech firms with covid lock ddowns adding further pressure. and alibaba and 10 cent. jd.com and pinduoduo among some of the biggest drags

and almost 8% lower. >> thank you my next guest says there are opportunities in tech right now, even though we may not be at a bottom joining me is founder and ceo of destination wealth management. what are the picks to you that jump out as really good opportunities here >> well, i think viewers are asking themselves are they still going to be ordering amazon packages, with even though amazon announced cautious earnings are they still owning amazon packages in a year, two year, three years? the answer is yes. a lot of people that come on air talk about what it's going to look like for the next quarter,b the next two quarters. i don't think that matters when you look at the long-term pieces look at a company like costco i think is in the right space sells things people want and need and at a lower price, which tend to be positive for a

recession and look where the stock's trading down look at apple. i would imagine that warren buffett's adding to his position, despite it's the largest position at berkshire hathaway i think you have to look past the next two quarters. if you look long term kwb i think these are names going to have some opportunity for the right -- in the right investment portfolio and every investor needs to be careful. not specific recommendation, the exact you were listening i think we're interested >> you mentioned three of the names. why johnson & johnson? >> johnson & johnson is part of what i call the hero industry. supplying things like vaccines hopefully they're going to be able to provide bibby formula under the defense act.

i think pharmaceutical with their high dividend rates, with as elwith as providing vaccine and health care services to the world, i think is going toby a major, major player down the road, particularly as we continue age and demographic basis. all of us are getting older. not you, kelly and as we get older, we're going to need more and more health care and i think johnson & johnson is well position tad do that >> we've talked a lot about china and other things you would recommend investors use -- i don't know if you want to use the term overweight or exclusive. >> i think u.s. is better opportunity. there's higher dividend rates and really, frankly with, i think that the u.s. is really perceived boy the world. and if you talk to epeople aroun the world, and i do

it's the place you have companies you know eare going to be around in the world, a as opposed to the chinese stocks we don't know what the government is going to do >> thank you for your ideas today. >> thanks. >> michael with some opportunities. still ahead financials the hardest hit s&p sector today because of rates we should say one bank is positionedst to and out from peers according to a new analyst. the name and why next. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this. your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, like asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee. yeah i should've just led with that. with at&t business. you can pick the best plan for each employee and get the best deals on every smart phone.

when it comes to cybersecurity, you can pick the best plan the biggest threats don't always strike the biggest targets. so help safeguard your small business with comcast business securityedge™ it's advanced security that continuously scans for threats and helps protect every connected device. the choice is clear. get unbeatable business solutions from the most innovative company. so you can be ready for what's next. get started with a great deal on internet and voice for just $49.99 a month for 24 months with a 2 -year price guarantee. call today. this is xfinity rewards. our way of saying thanks, with rewards for the whole family! from epic trips...

to jurassic-themed at-home activities. join over 3 million members and start enjoying rewards like these, and so much more in the xfinity app! and don't miss jurassic world:dominion in theaters june 10th. welcome back to "the exchange." one of the worst performing sectors because names are at a 52-week low. and j.p. morgan one of the only in the green as its investor days continue. and in a better position than its peers. joining me is financials analyst at bank of america are you supposed to say best of

bank >> i am not allowed to comment but you can make your own choice >> where i work, speaks louder than who i cover he said j.p. morgan was the only financial name he'd own right now because he thought their franchise was sohere >> that's right. i think what the investor day did was it was a reminder in terms of the scale that the jpmorgan franchise has when you look at $4 trillion in assets, 66 million u.s. households, banking 90% plus of fortune 500 companies, i think when you marry that scale in terms of the clients and the innovation in terms of the investments of the franchise is undertaking. i think that makes jpmorgan from a medium to long-term a very hard competitor to beat, and it makes the bank extremely well-positioned when you think about what's happening with the banking industry in terms of digital innovation and change in customer preferences. >> yeah, i wonder about the -- you know, what they said about tangible common equity yesterday as well.

if they can hit, was it 17% that they said that people seem to like, how significant is that achievement to the stock and how likely is it to happen based on recession and inflation concerns >> so that's correct i think if you take a step back, kelly, if you go back to january when they first laid out their investment span, the stock sold off. i think shareholders and investors were frustrated based on our conversations just around the fact that management probably didn't connect the dots enough in terms of how these investments spend would impact future growth and impact profitability. i think what management did yesterday was reassure shareholders that despite these investments, they have not taken their eye off in terms of disciplined expense management and capital allocation so when you think about the return on tangible equity, as you pointed out, they left the door open that they might hit that number of 17% possibly in 2022, likely '23, i think that was better than what the street expected coming into yesterday and again, i think the signaling

value is important in terms of that despite all these investments beat the uk digital bank, things that they are doing with blockchain and stable and crypto, they are able to deliver best in class returns. so i think that was a positive, but the other part of your question, if we do hit a rough patch, and i think you heard jamie dimon talk about the economy is strong today but there are storm clouds on the horizon. if we do enter a recession over the next year or two, maybe that target gets pushed out of it >> what will the simple explanation be if you told most people, hey, the ten-year is going to double, what's going to happen to bank stocks, they would go i don't care, i want to buy them the opposite has happened. jpmorgan is down 20% this year, the financial spdr etf down about 13%. why? >> i can't walk around the hallway this year without someone stopping and sasking me that question. if you take a step back, i think

the big picture view is the fed needs to hike interest rates in order to bring down inflation. as a result of that, i think the takeaways the fed will do some real damage to the economy you've been talking to that throughout your show what we don't know today when the fed hikes 50 basis points in june, maybe another 50 basis points in july, where will the economy be in terms of demand that will inflate and where will the job market be? as a result you've seen bank stocks poorly starting mid-february then you had inflation expectations get worse, the war in ukraine that began, that also sort of impacted outlook for inflation, and then you had the china supply chain disruptions in march and april due to the lockdown when you add all of this, what we've been telling clients is we're not going to get a good understanding of where the economy is until maybe we get to later in the fall, post-labor day to assess damage that's been done to the economy and, second, whether we do get a soft landing and the worst fed tightening might be behind us this summer.

>> not that the p/e is the most important thing but 11 times is what jpmorgan is trading at. thank you smoo much for joiningu today. >> thank you. let's get a quick check on markets which are well off session lows right now the dow is down 515 points earlier on we're down only 135 right now. 4/10 of a percent, the nasdaq had been down about 4%, but we're 2.5% lower at the moment. up next, according to a recent survey, consumers perceive this restaurant as having the least bang for your buck, and it's no favorite with investors either, falling 38% this year. i've got a few ideas for candidates here. we'll have the name and the companies that could provide a safe haven in a recession. that's next. what if “just an idea” could become a family tradition? this is financial security. and lincoln financial solutions will help you get there. as you plan, protect and retire. ♪

in the future we'll travel to incredible places with the help of magical technology. but what about today? ♪♪ i can't wait for what tomorrow will bring, but in the meantime, let's enjoy the ride... ♪♪ (all): all hail, caesar! pssst julius! you should really check in with your team on ringcentral. oh hi caesar. we were just talking about you. yeah, you should probably get out of here. ♪ ringcentral ♪

welcome back ept to get one more thing on your radar before we go today,

everything from real estate to social media now seems to be at risk, but one area of discretionary spending that could hold up in a slowdown is food kate rogers is here with a look at the potential safe havens in the restaurant space, kate. >> hey, kelly. well, inflation is hitting nearly every restaurant name we all know there's one silver lining and that food is typically the last place that consumers will pull back during a recession because we all have to eat k cowen polling 2,500 consumers on value perception, wendy's, taco bell, mcdonald's and panera were the highest scoring in terms of above value for the money. for low income respondents, wendy's mcdonald's, taco bell, panera, and pizza hut for above average value perception the overall top five with yum brands, darden, sweet green, chipotle and mcdonald's. separate research shows that one place where consumers may start to pull away from is delivery. recent data fra black box intelligence for q1 showed that

guest sentiment in terms of value was negative for both full service and limited service brands when it came to off premise dining the bad news is that sector-wise nearly every name is in trouble, even brands that continue to tout their pricing power over the last six months every restaurant name is in the red, and the biggest losers are wing stop and red robin down about 6% mcdonald's and brlooming brands are holding up better but down about 5%. >> who was the name that was perceived as having the worst bang for your buck >> i think overall it was starbucks, and that was around 42%. so they were, you know, below 50% for above average value perception they do tend to cater to a higher income demographic, and that's coffee, not so much food, even though food is increasingly important in terpsms of their ticket but cold beverages is their biggest platform >> i think even the people who love it would say it's not the best bang for their buck >> true. >> thank you very much, kate

rogers today reporting. and we will speak to the ceo of advanced auto parts about how inflation and supply chains are impacting their business that's ahead on "power lunch," which begins right now kelly, thank you very much, and welcome, everybody, to "power lunch" for a tuesday. i'm tyler mathisen, and here is what's ahead on what promises to be yet another busy hour a rough day on wall street yet again, but stocks are attempting a bit of a comeback off the lows still, profit and sales warnings from companies are spawning recession fears left, right, and center this hour the outlook for growth here and around the world, we'll examine the charts and whether the technicals are pointing to a bottom, and we'll look to consistent dividend growers as potential safety plays first, though, kelly's got a check on these markets kelly. >> i do, tyler, thank you very much hi, everybody, so we're off session lows, but it's