tv Fast Money CNBC May 25, 2022 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
5:00 pm
that helped stocks. >> bring it full circle to where we started nvidia reports, stocks down. >> the impact on the market is going to be fascinating to watch trying to isolate the blow-ups and snap arguably did not swamp the tape. >> good stuff. see you tomorrow "fast money" is now. right now a rare green wave on wall street retail is best performance in a year williams-sonoma rocking after hours and energy stocks hit all-time highs shares of nvidia lower the outlook not rosie. we're keeping an eye on shares of twitter musk makes it seem like he is going forward. breaking details coming up i'm melissa lee. this is "fast money.
5:01 pm
opinion the desk, karen, guy and tim. we start with the fed led boost. no new reasons for concern enough to lift stocks and send the nasdaq higher. s&p and dow following suit but now in the after hours session weak guidance from nvidia sending the shares tanking. will this reignite the fears about technology and a change in the environment? a change in terms of how to value the companies, dan >> that guidance is not particularly bad and used a mill began. supply chain issues relating to russia and continued covid lockdowns in china and could have expected that i think the issue why in stock is probably down in the after market investors in this environment conditioned to shoot
5:02 pm
first and ask questions later. this is not a whole heck of a lot of volume. here's a stock cut in half trades well above a market multiple if the sales were set to decline greater than the company guided to you would see it making new 52-week lows >> yeah. already cut in half. we have seen a stock can come out like this and already been cut in half and beaten down and manages to drag the sector lower. we saw snap a much smaller company and took apple down the next day. >> yeah. i like those data center revenues it is a good read on the broader players in the space and we also saw that the numbers taken down nvidia, and trading as a group i think that the outlook here is
5:03 pm
decent wait and hear some more. gaming revenue is a concern. the multiple is great relative to itself. what we forget here is that this was a stock that was from february of 2020 to even where it traded up to it pulled back 51% but it moved 500% essentially in two years it's a dynamic year where people have to understand what to pay for the stocks there's nothing bad relative to the environment we're in and what they said about china and russia i don't think they're reasons to sell the company but a case to wait and see what the multiple should trade for. >> i don't think this will be a snap moment. one, it was up going into this print so if you take that out it hasn't moved that much
5:04 pm
what's amazing act snap is how fast the company deteriorated and so nvidia we haven't heard from them for a couple months so this isn't a huge move off of where they were. what's the right multiple? used to be these kind of companies traded at peak and trough multiples this is a sky high multiple for quite sometime >> all a matter of what do we pay for these soshts of companies. guy you had a tweet about tesla. what's the stock done since reporting? gone lower. >> yeah. traded up to 1080 that day in the after hours. dan got a lot of ats on the twitter. subsequently traded down to $600 that's a significant move. nvidia here. i'm scratching my head
5:05 pm
up in the day and given that back $8.1 billion i think consensus $4.3 billion i'm surprised at the stock in the after hours. i don't think it was that bad as to have this move. the move is not commiserate with the guide. just my opinion. >> the conference call is also just underway. kristina partsinevelos is following it. >> and that section or sector grew 83% surpassing the core gaming business selling graphic cards for games and crypto mining the auto business down 10% on a year over year basis despite the strength in categories the company is
5:06 pm
cautious guidance coming in lighter at $8.1 billion including a hit relating to russia and china covid lockdowns. keep in mind forward looking the chip maker did con firm to slow the pace of hiring joining the other tech firms being cautious. you see shares down now almost 7% i'll hopefully get more info to why we see the massive drop despite guidance coming in not as bad as maybe justified by the drop. >> thank you keep us posted tim, what would you want to hear on the conference call >> i want to hear some strength on the enterprise side data center at 3.75 billion. it was stronger. we haven't about inflation and dynamics that are part of the reason that other companies sold
5:07 pm
off. the impact of nvidia should not be understated this is now 3.3% of the nasdaq this is one of the bellwethers we thinking of chips this is front of the class and a story to -- remember we saw an upgrade last week on the show. we talked about that in amd with something like this is -- you buy good companies when they're down and much of what the upgrade was predicated on. i think when you look at nvidia you look at the quality and the segments that they're in and leading and they have -- there's competition. i do think it's a case where this is one of those great companies. >> also gets to the heart of the question the market facing for good companies, even companies that report decent quarters or look like decent
5:08 pm
quarters it is a decline what multiple do you pay so that, dan, for investors to dip the toes in the market it feels like catching a falling knife. >> exposure is through the smh it is up $400 billion market cap company. one of the largest in the nasdaq and the s&p. this is the stage of the describe in high valuation names where they shot all those other names. we know those down and i think it's important to understand we talk about this stock six months ago as joining the trillion-dollar market cap club and now 400 billion and still trading at 12 times sales. okay for all intents and purposes this is a hardware company people that followed tech over years would say that's too high. with the 500% move over 5 years.
5:09 pm
not the best performing stock. could it overshoot it could. >> here's a silver lining maybe. i don't know guy, they're coming after the likes of nvidia again. is that actually a good thing where the selling continues even in the very good companies in the growth areas and a good thing in the market downturn for the cycle? >> i think that's an excellent point. maybe we're sort of closer to the end than the beginning i think it's close to the middle and understand what you're saying and i think it is healthy. you talk about a company that probably has, i don't know, 18% revenue growth a company trading at ten times next year's revenue. maybe that's a historical norm to the point the fact that they
5:10 pm
sell it on this quarter is suggestive to take the excess from the market. it is important to point it out. the market traded pretty well since the 3810 low in the s&p and probably do have a couple more days of bounces. >> twitter stock is jumping after hours on reports that elon musk is upping the money putting into the planned purchase for the company. julia? >> melissa, s.e.c. filing musk reporting seeking additional funding as the margin loan commitment expired musk is upping the total commitment to $33.5 billion. that's an additional $6.25 billion in equity. the stock is moving higher
5:11 pm
presumably because musk is moving forward seeking more financing is not unexpected it comes after reports three weeks ago that he was seeking more financing for the deal. also comes after the shareholder meeting today and the only comment on the deal is moving forward with terms originally negotiated with musk and filing just as the ftc and doj announce they are suing twitter over misrepresenting the extent to which the company maintained and protected the security and privacy of the nonpublic contact information alleging the company failed to disclose it used it to target ads. >> there's part of the filing to indicate musk talking about existing shareholders like jack dorsey to roll the shares into the parent company to retain
5:12 pm
their ownership. is that new? is that official or now that it's in the filing. >> i'm not sure. that is officially a new thing or heard about as an idea before that is a way to maintain a relationship with dorsey and the investment in the company and to count him among the investors. >> thank you i go to karen first on this. trading nowhere near the offer price. >> it is good in that the last we heard from elon the deal was on hold. >> right. >> right this is better than hold the more quix to raise the good idea tesla's down quite a bit since he entered into the agreement. the company has to say we are going along with the merger agreement. i wouldn't be surprised if he
5:13 pm
tries to renegotiate over even walk away. any can happen i can't imagine as a board dealing with this investor, richest man in the world maybe still, i don't know. and being so uncertain the true intentions to me it is a no touch but good news in that it seems to be positive momentum forward. >> doesn't seem likely to commit nearly $34 billion owning less than 16% of tesla. i think spacex valued at $160 million something. if you do 16% of the existing market cap it's $682 billion that puts him north of 100 million. he has pledged 100 million his stake. >> right. >> right so think about it. right? 100 billion. pledging 33.5. what was the multiple? >> 20%. >> this math doesn't work.
5:14 pm
okay that's why he is running around trying to get equity investor. if you saw snaps and the results and that stock down 40% in a day and now a smaller enterprise value than a much worse company like twitter in my opinion, you give equity to that? to me it's all a big fugasi. >> i don't know if you heard from jim briar said but that twitter is worth between 25, $35 a share and certain bring lower. what is twitter if musk -- if the deal doesn't go through? >> you're asking the person that thought it would go through at 54 and change. i put that out there for context. karen and dan said it.
5:15 pm
it probably trades down to those levels but what we said last night and not trying to sort of do a u-turn but snap on that flush yesterday given the volume and the valuations you saw it today. that's probably still the trade in this environment. you had that flush out and the volume capitulation. snap will get through this i think. that's the trade here for the pop in my opinion. >> tim, what's your take on this >> on twitter there's a shareholder meeting and they didn't talk about this deal because they couldn't and the ceo quote said he was exhausted and talked about product enhancement, increasing engagement a company i believe has
5:16 pm
intrinsic value. if this didn't happen and elon did not happen to twitter where would the stock be trading now has that alluminated the lack of a bid from other parties i don't know if it matters but if elon wept away it would trade at those levels but not stay there. i don't think there's a perfect solution in the ceo's chair but a company worth more based upon expectations the business was going to be different. is it not going to be? i don't know it's an interesting day of almost nothing in terms of what came out of that meeting. coming up, details on the quarter for williams-sonoma. and news on kohl's not the only retailer in rally mode should you add any to your shopping bag shopping bag don't go solutions all in one place.
5:17 pm
so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want —your team, ours anywhe. with the nation's largest ip network. from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities.™ "fast money" is back in two. ♪ ♪ bonnie boon i'm calling you out.
5:18 pm
everybody be cool, alright? we've got bonnie right here on a video call. we don't take kindly to video calls. oh, in that case just tap to send a message. we don't take kindly to messages neither. in that case how 'bout a ringcentral phone call. we don't take kindly to no... would you can it eugene! let's just hear her out. ha ha ha, i've been needing a new horse. we've got ourselves a deal. ♪ ♪ ♪ ringcentral ♪ this is not the stallion i was imagining. as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts...
5:19 pm
saving you up to $500 a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities.™ another crazy day? of course—you're a cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want —your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip network. from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities.™ welcome back williams-sonoma higher by almost 16%. seema has the details.
5:20 pm
>> hey, melissa. higher sales at pottery barn and west elm stores helping the company. pottery barn up 14. %. west elm up 12.8%. did see a decline at williams-sonoma, a drop at pottery barn kids and teens better than expected and underscore that is the higher end consumer is still spending on home goods. after gaining around 9% in the reck session mel? >> thank you we got the good news from toll yesterday, tim that's a higher end home buyer could be a good read through >> boy, it was last night i think i said i was
5:21 pm
concerned. for a company that comp at 9.9%. it is extraordinary. if you look at the value of the brand portfolio there, too, west elm seems to be clicking but it was a record quarter for a company that trades at 7 1/2 times. not expensive. how much pull forward? i'm not sure we know this is a different segment relative to the folks that disappointed i do think that the stay at home nesting dynamic and working from home has a longer cycle to it. i think it has to run out of gas and even those consumers who are higher up on the income chain will feel it and not been this quarter. >> i thought it was really impressive it is high margin.
5:22 pm
here's an opportunity to take numbers down be cautious. we saw dick's sporting goods did. ov overly cautious. this was an excellent quarter. there's a lot to like here i was very impressed as you brought up rh, on target for rh up $16 in the after hours. >> for as much talk about inflationary pressures, supply chain issues not a problem here, guy. >> they operated extraordinarily. tim did say last night it was cheap. he is right. traded well today obviously but the move is justified. up 17.1%, 120 basis points year over year and difficult environment. good for them.
5:23 pm
should be rewarded for this. doing back of the envelope math, a couple days ago cut down by almost 58% from the levels in november 50% of the recent move from 220 down to 102 is 160 and a reasonable level to start selling the stock. >> check out kohl's trading 12% higher nearly. there's a rough earnings report. offers may come in lower expected karen, you have been fired up. gotten under your skin. >> i'm back, kohl's. we saw the stock trading at 36.5, 37 that's where the plan will trade on its own and only with this story of bidders bidding lower that made the stock trade into
5:24 pm
the 40s. remember that, board,when you consider the bids. they're higher than where the stock is today for the board, were you aware that the officers were leaving before the meeting on may 11th if you were aware of it that's not so cool, board if you weren't, that's not so cool, management second thing that's interesting is t. rowe price made an unusual, visible show of support to kohl's management i wonder did they know and yet still close to support kohl's management or not know in which case t. rowe put pressure on the management because they didn't let you know that two of the
5:25 pm
probably three most important executives were leaving. i'm upset with this process. four months into it. they don't have the bids in hand or if they do aren't telling us. which might be okay. do it. sell it. in january you got more than one expression of interest. >> what point do you say to yourself, karen, i should sell. >> i should sell excellent question probably at 58 was the right answer but here i am at 40 and sort of worked up over it. i hope there's pressure to get them if i looked today and owned none there's a reasonable shot that this board is pressured into doing the right thing. >> the board sounds like it's incompetent. >> i don't know if incompetent
5:26 pm
is the right word. certainly misleading right? >> deceptive or incompetent. >> then a sale is the right thing. on the board you don't want this you don't want me yelling at you. right? who want that is >> i don't want it that's for sure. >> they were sued the other day for withholding information nonpublic. the conference call is ridiculous you know it. they don't want to deal with people like me. >> twice in the last week we had a little dust-up over kohl's if people like you as shareholders saying they're dumb or - >> i didn't say that >> they may leave. >> they're not buying kohl's
5:27 pm
because they're killing it it's in the position not killing it any buyer has to think i have a better plan than kohl's plan and buying it cheaper great. plus a lot of them looking at a real estate transaction and doesn't matter that's why i'm - >> the market history is not kind to stories like this. people on tv upset about situations and boards under fire and claims of not being particularly honest. my bet is there's not a great buyer for this thing. >> there are several buy everies allegedly. they do generate cash flow there's value. it's whether or not this board will say it's not a great time to sell. never mind i don't think i want to be on the board of directors that does that a lot of feedback they don't
5:28 pm
want. >> i think we'll send the clip to the board. is the fed being naive that's what one investor thinks about the stance on inflation. later shares of snowflake later shares of snowflake plunging who's responsible for building esg into your investments? at pgim, the pursuit is on for outperformance. as active investors, what's in the release that what's in the release that spooked investors? as asset managers and fiduciaries, to outserve, with our commitment to better esg outcomes. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. back right after this.
5:30 pm
(vo) this is more than just a building. it's billion-dollar views. perfectly located. an inspiration. and enough space to start an empire. loopnet. the most popular place to find a space. welcome back to "fast money. markets higher after the fed minutes gave no reason to believe the central bank would be more hawkish.
5:31 pm
the next guest said they're being naive. great to have you back welcome back. >> thank you for having me >> so the fed is really, really behind you think that's basically what the fed minutes show >> yeah. we know that they're behind the curve and i think what we saw today is that they still are just hoping that supply chain bottlenecks relieve themselves there's still some degree of transitory to the inflation story and haven't woken up to the idea of a secular shift going on maybe globalization to deglobalization with monetary and fiscal stimulus created a
5:32 pm
paradigm >> michael, it is tim. welcome back when i hear you and saw in the notes you think credit right now is fine. i'm going to listen to anybody on credit it's you but the things you talk about in terms of the fed to be aggressive and to cut growth out at the knees, what point do you start to get worried about credit when growth is cut what kind of goet headwinds will lead to some erosion here? that has me concerned. i have seen widening and high yield. >> i'm not concerned look at the fundamentals leverage collapses interest coverage at all-time highs. the ability to pay the coupon on the debt through earnings. what did corporate america do during the recession turned out the debt and locked in low interest rates like
5:33 pm
homebuyers did and now able to service those. they're outpacing upgrades to downgrades the default rate is virtually zero cash on corporate balance sheets near all-time highs and now spending that cash on cap-x. i think there's negativity in the markets. growth is slowing but not slow and the fed hiking a few times isn't going to slow consumption. so i just think that certainly 2022 is not going to be a year for recession. spreads have widened because of the increase in volatility you want certainty of cure upon and payment of principle and an increase in volatility suggests that that certainty is diminished and what the widening
5:34 pm
is about not about fundamentals >> it's karen. let me ask you the minutes that they seem to -- may 4th or so. seems like that has happened since then and powell and fed governors very hawkish do you think things are different now than when these minutes were happening >> i don't think that much has changed. they're trying to tighten financial conditions through rhetoric and forward guidance. powell i'm sure loves the idea that the 2-year is up a ton this year and might not have to hike as much as they would otherwise have to. i don't think we're seeing consumption reined in at all i don't think that much changed but trying to jawbone the
5:35 pm
markets a little bit and see if that works my suspicion is it won't and will have to hike higher than expected or increase the pace of qt which i think is a secondary tool that they'll use. >> those two options, the equity markets i don't want to say will likely but we could see downside you say the fed doesn't care if we see 30% to 40% downside on the nasdaq that's 14% on top of the decline already. >> yeah. michelle, listen i always get asked isn't the fed putt still in play they backtracked the fed doesn't care about equity markets today the majority of the downturn in what we think are bubble, long duration assets. you think the fed cares if they
5:36 pm
go down that much? not when they're flighting inflation. the difference is they with respect -- weren't fighting anything they wanted to go up without tipping anything out of balance and when the market said mercy they stopped this go and they have something to fight and i think they're naive to hi they'll be done and they will have to go higher and equities going down will not deter them from that. >> michael, thank you. it is melissa. so glad to see you. >> what did i say? >> we'll see you again soon. >> thank you take care. all right. guy, i think you like what he's saying. >> i do. i'm -- i do because the fed
5:37 pm
should never really be looking at the market. clearly did specifically in 2018 i think they blinked for two reasons. browbeat by the administration at the time and the market went down 19.9% in 2 1/2 months. inflation wasn't a problem then so they did what they needed to do in their opinion. now inflation is a problem by the way, the inflation they wined for for years and this is not something that's -- can't defeat this overnight and i don't think people understand how sticky the inflation problem will be. look at the energy market. every opportunity to sell-off epa not and wait until china reopens. wait how high crude goes. coming up, more earn shares of snowflake dropping talking big tech several meetings making
5:38 pm
headlines and where musk stands headlines and where musk stands in the dea when we act on insight, with the right people by our side, opportunity is everywhere.l o let insights reveal new opportunities. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i needr twitte returnription. visit indeed.com/hire
5:41 pm
guidance for the quarter frank holland has the latest from the call. frank? >> listening to the call nothing remarkable looking at the report. another possible reason for the sharp drop appears to be the deceleration of product revenue. take a look at the bar chart 2020 that number for revenue growth for product at 164% this year 66%. gets 90% of the revenue. possibly a red flag after salesforce selling the remaining shares in q1 the rest of the report showing growth performance obligations now $2.6 billion. net revenue retention up 174%. growth in revenue from existing customers. guidance in line with estimates. the call started a few minutes ago and keep listening and the ceo will be on "tech check" tomorrow.
5:42 pm
>> thank you dan, what do you make of this? >> a lot of things to like that retention number is huge and what investors are willing to pay since they went public and focused on revenue deceleration is much -- was much higher. it is still trading 20 times sales this year. 15 times next. stacked up to the peers seems expensive in this market we said this act nvidia. that's what i think is going on. i don't think the guidance is horrible investors are not willing to sit around and ask too many questions. >> tim >> i've got them at close to 40 times. $41 billion company and doing 1.2 billion in sales it is not cheap. your point is well taken
5:43 pm
also their adjusted out market up as an aberration. again it is a company that's not profitable now at a time when i just think everybody realizes it is one thing to pay x multiple of sales for a software company but a company losing money is another thing and where the -- i believe this is go down even more. high profile companies with meetings today chevron hitting an all-time high the details ahead. don't go anywhere.
5:44 pm
5:45 pm
i think it's very important that you spend your time wisely. and what better way of spending time than traveling, continuing to educate ourselves and broaden our minds? (woman vo) viking. exploring the world in comfort. at cdw, we get it's hard to keep employees productive when their work and home lives are busier than ever. well that's why we gave cyborg assistants to everyone in the company. they handle the "home" parts, so we can keep working. mmmm, delicious. shhhh, shhhh. you know at cdw, we can design a productivity solution with lenovo devices that offer fast, reliable connectivity to help your people manage their workloads, with or without cyborgs. perfect, 'cause this guy needs a little work. for technology that moves you forward, trust lenovo and it orchestration by cdw. flexshares are carefully constructed. to go beyond ordinary etfs. and strengthen client confidence in you. before investing consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com
5:46 pm
for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully. welcome back twitter shares jumping in the after hour the filings showing that musk is still moving forward gene, what's the take on the developments >> i think it is evidence that elon wants to pursue the transaction. it doesn't tell us the price i would be shocked if he pays $54 for this i think the number is $42 but it is a step in the right direction. quickly, how do you get to $42 is if you look at what the
5:47 pm
market has done nasdaq sill announcing this on april 1 42 means something to elon i think all roads lead to $42. i would put myself safely on the ledger that i believe he is going to acquire twitter i think this plays into if you think about elon's behavior it's become political and i think that is another rev to the benefit of him owning twitter. it is apowerful political voic with twitter it's a step in the right direction at $42. >> did the shareholder meeting say anything about this? i would imagine if he wanted to renegotiate lower i don't think they have a choice looks worse than before if elon
5:48 pm
musk walks. >> absolutely. he's done a good job of spoiling how investors think about twitter's management team and evidence of what popularity can get you. he has 93 million twitter followers. that mass i think is sprinkled in investors and their belief in this and the core business deteriorated not just because of the advertising components no negative update on that front but the distraction. you have to imagine that elon has done a successful roll here in terms of negotiating a lower price and if it doesn't happen the stock is $25 i think a conservative view of where this would go. >> it is karen if you feel strong at 42 the
5:49 pm
price to ends up the stock 39d.54 now and seems like a good short at that level. hard to have a huge degree of certainty that elon will close if he doesn't and sells the shares i think that 25 might be the upside in the short term. >> it could be analysis weighted return that i looked at is the probability is 70%. downside to 25 is 30% chance i think that nets out at minus 2%, 3% i don't think that this is worthy of investing and trading. you kind of stand clear and enjoy the fireworks. >> gene, good to see you as always. >> thank you. >> karen, were you thinking about getting back in? >> i don't know. i get why elon 420 is great for
5:50 pm
him. that's a giant, a giant hair cut. it would show the board feels like the merger agreement isn't adequate to force them to close. to go to court force him to close i don't know. >> it is also a tough thing here because gene mentioned a political turn and wants the asset. thinking about the other asset that's $682 million and that's talent those are the people buying electric vehicles. the party aligned with don't seem to care about the climt concerns and joining the tesla company and risk there as far as tesla's business twitter's business is eroding
5:51 pm
5:54 pm
welcome back energy adding to the big run this year. exl up 55% tony joins us with the action. tony >> yeah. as crude and energy here is trading near a relative highs we see a trader betting on muted outlooks for a particular stock. chevron. taking advantage of the implied voluntarily killty here selling 2500 contracts of the june 175 straddle collecting in this particular case $11.94 credit that's about $3 million in premium and betting that this stock is not going to potential move substantially higher or lower with a wide range in a 7% range. over the next 23, 24 days.
5:55 pm
betting that we're not going to see big moves in energy. >> guy, what do you think? do you agree with the action >> look. chevron traded up to 175 and change today new high new all-time high for chevron. i can understand why people say maybe it's time and maybe will start to cycle out of energy to other things do i agree not necessarily. i think energy is going to continue to go higher from here. we thought that for a while and learn more in my final trade that's called a tease. >> tim, are those your thoughts? do you share them? >> for sure. guy's teasing my tease for my final trade, too. >> cancel each other out >> i don't know. i think we're energy squared
5:56 pm
now. you have a case looking at the debt and balance sheet profile of the companies chevron is .25 debt to equity you have a lot of big names in the sector that will be essentially zero debt. almost unfathomable to think about where the sector has gone and the companies did not change the commitment that's the story i said 2.7 to 4.7% in the s&p just in year it's going higher. >> tony, thank you tune in friday 5:30 p.m. eastern.
5:58 pm
5:59 pm
6:00 pm
159 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
CNBCUploaded by TV Archive on
![](http://athena.archive.org/0.gif?kind=track_js&track_js_case=control&cache_bust=157897503)