>> i like cowz, if you like short duration assets, up over 4% year to date. >> okay. we are pretty much at the highs of the day the dow is about to crack a 600-point gain or thereabouts. we'll see what transpires the last three hours of the day. i will see you in "the ot. "the exchange" is now. thank you, scott hi, everybody. welcome to "the exchange." here's what's ahead. stocks are up nicely again today. we're at session highs of 600 points, and this is the fifth straight day of gains for the dow. we'll look at this turn from an eight-week losing streak and what it tells us both about the fed and about the market's next moves. retail is rocking today. most of the s&p biggest gainers are consumer names the hard hit dollar stocks rebounding huge. did the market overreact to walmart and target, and what's the real take away that picture seems mixed

the housing picture pretty clear. the real estate market is closing and fast we'll get the latest on the state of housing coming up let's begin with today's gains we're pretty much at session his, mr. chu >> they were losses at one point so it's been a real turnaround to your point the dow looking to snap that eight-week losing streak it would be a snap of a seven-week losing streak this week if we can keep this up for both the nasdaq composite and the s&p 500. we are now near session highs, up 600 points, 32,718, up nearly 2%, be normality of 2% gains for the s&p which reclaims that 4,000 mark, up about 90 points and the composite index up 345 points near session highs. we were at one point actually down 28 -- yes, it's modest -- but down 28 points after the opening bell for the composite index. a decent-sized turnaround. we'll see if that momentum can hold one participate of the area -- or one area of the market that is continuing to show strength and has been for months at this

point now since the pandemic lows is crude oil. we are above $114 for crude prices almost 3% to 3.5% gains. natural gas is the big story now above $9.30. the reason that's important we're talking near 14-year highs going into the summer season when people consume more power for things like air conditioning that move higher is catching a lot of people by surprise here energy stocks as a result up about 1 1/3 percent. it's indicative of a large cap consumer staples company that may not be as equipped to deal with inflation or, so says analysts, at ubs, which have taken kraft heinz to the equivalent of a sell and cut their price target to $34 from a prior $40, and what they think is that inflation will impact

kraft heinz more than competitors. kelly, this is something we've been talking about for a while that kraft heinz is more susceptible to consumers trading down to private label products that compete with their brand name products, so all of that is factoring in one of the reasons why kraft heinz is showing 6% weakness in a big up day >> you just want to get a kirkland plug in i know you do. >> i like kraft heinz ketchup. >> i do, too >> i don't necessarily trade down for ketchup >> same. >> that's the one thing i will stick to >> i agree this is the one thing i always buy. >> and kraft mac and cheese. i don't think my daughter will eat anything but kraft >> dom, thank you very much. we appreciate it the market is trying to stabilize after an eight-week losing streak. my next guest says inflation not recession remains the biggest risk for investors sticking with large cap dividend paying stocks joining me is the chief investment officer of huntington

private bank john, welcome. you think dividend pairs will offer enough inflation protection >> we do we think consistent earnings, dividends will continue to be the way to go. even though we are seeing some growth come up this week, we still think those dividend indexes, kelly, if you think about it, some of the dividend indexes are only down 2% this year that's constructive in the kind of year we're having for stocks. >> what about kraft heinz, one of the big go-to places for dividend players, and yet consumer staples have had a rough stretch lately >> yes, but that's one of those that's perceived as not consistent you talked about it yourself, you and dom, saying potentially they can't keep up with inflation. personally i have to admit, full disclosure, i'm more of a kirkland guy with respect to kraft heinz maybe they don't have what it takes to keep up with inflation. look at cisco foods. they're on the other side of that today we jusadded that from our

equity >> what else have you been adding here? what stocks are you definitely picking up >> well, we've been in the reit sector so real estate. we continue to look at utility in the field then the services on the consumer discretionary side. people getting out for services now, the hiltons, the booking.comes, et cetera so what we see is this big shift second half of the year, energy earnings decline, consumer discretionary led by services increase that's what our equity team is trying to get ready for. >> it's interesting you say real estate or reits because you have the head winds of a slowing real estate market and rising rates granted the slowdown seems to be more on the residential side explain how they can compete/do well in this environment >> kind of three things that our equity team. dividends. we like dividends right now. number two is an inflation hedge. as you talked about some of the

commodity prices, energy, just aren't cooperating yet and then the potential for capital gains out of those stocks, some of the beaten down stocks, think of simon properties it's three things we're looking at with respect to reits >> and give us some names in the other sectors maybe we talk less about and where does energy screen for you today those are all of the top names in the s&p 500 trading at record or multiyear or certainly 52-week highs. >> yeah, what our equity team does, they put their energy positions in last year they've held them so now with that growth this year they're overweight so think of eog resources, think of valero, think of chevron and exxon. those are the plays they're doing, trying to be broad across the energy sector with their representation they're holding those positions not necessarily adding to them right now. so those are some ofthe areas we're looking at >> john, we will leave it there. thank you for your clarity today. appreciate it.

>> thanks. >> john augustine with huntington private bank. a news alert in the bond market the seven year right in the sweet spot tens were lower and then the 30s. what are we seeing for the seven-year option today? >> reporter: we are seeing basically empty plates because investors ate pretty much every scrap of seven years the treasury offered up in their auction buffet i gave the auction an a-plus we're talking $42 billion seven years completing the final leg of $137 billion of treasury coupon 7s are wild. 2.777. the one issue was trading around 2.80 which means lower yield, better price and that's good if you're selling treasuries. the 7 year came back in '09. covering the best since the march of 2020. 77.9 on indirects. those are the foreign interests

we're all so nervous about to continue buying. that's the best since early 2018 the direct bidder was the only fly in the ointment and even that couldn't knock it off from an a-plus. 15.8 was the lightest since november of 2020 here is the stat that is unbelievable dealers only took 6.4% of that auction meaning investors took the rest i do not have a lower number for dealers. remember, we've had a lot of green as of late in the equity markets and all of a sudden today as that option was about ready to button up we see yields continuing to rise on everything except for a two-year note which is hovering around unchanged i guess what i'm saying here is now that the green is back in equity, you might look for the green to go back in terms of yield moving higher price moving lower. a very important close for treasuries and how much loss those 7 year notes next week

will be very important for the rest of the market >> green there, green everywhere rick, thank you very much. the nasdaq is at session highs with a better than 3% gain as you can see there back up to 11,785 the dow up 618 points right now. and maybe retail earnings have something to do with that. a very different tone in results the past couple of days. helping to lift sentiment after the retail wreck, macy's, william sonoma, dollar tree, dollar general dollar tree is now up 22%. macy's up 18%. posted beats on the top and bottom line, a day after we saw positive results from nordstrom and dick's sporting goods. macy's in particular came as a surprise the company raised its full-year earnings guidance. our next guest was bullish going into the numbers and says it's still a value here joining us is senior retail analyst oliver chen. great to have you with us, oliver it's still a buy for you. >> yes, it is. we're excited about the print today. the customer is going out, so

the big story for the consumer next is that going out trade and apparel items such as dresses, cosmetics, we like ulta as well, and we think macy's is inexpensive p/e below five times, dividend yield as well as the real estate and the company modernizing across inventory management, speed, e-commerce, loyalty and acquiring new customers. there's a lot that's working that being said, kelly, the consumer is at a crossroads. inflation, stimulus, the lower end consumer, those are all risk factors to pay attention to as well >> sure. i just want to point out we have the restaurant stocks up strongly as well so up almost 25% in just two sessions so did we reset too much last week or when we heard about walmart and target's results, and should these stocks moves be take nen that context when they've still been underperforming year to date

>> well, stocks did pull back a lot. as a consumer that's still there in terms of low unemployment we do have a consumer at the lower end, lower than 50,000 household income that is definitely pulling out and being more considered. what happened at walmart and target, a lot of the home goods, patio, big and bulky, outdoor, those were very hard to change quickly as the consumer looked for other items. reorientating inventory will be a task across the industry for different reasons. but what's been resonating is the consumer going out again, dresses and other apparel that's related to that has been a positive the consumer is still there so it's something we're watching. >> apologies, i don't know if dollar stores are part of your coverage, do you pick up a tradedown effect there are they rallying for a bad reason, or are they rallying for a good reason, which is that amongst their core consumer discretionary spending is still holding up well? >> kelly, what we're seeing consumers are trading down their

private brands private versus national brands, kirkland is a fan favorite for me, too. i really look for that brand i love the jewelry and the food and the wine consumers are looking for exceptional value that lower end consumer is getting very -- gas and energy they're looking to stretch their dollar and that will be a real thing that will continue and stimulus has been very difficult. at the same time, kelly, consumers love brands, too macy's called out some of their big brands such as tommy hilfiger and ralph and others and we like lbmh there's a lot of bifurcation it's not one size fits all in terms of the cross currents we're seeing now >> a shoutout to costco. i'm wearing their earrings shoutout to my mother-in-law for hooking me up. from walmart and target where both of them came out consistently, even amazon. we see one narrative there and maybe it's just that we are extrapolating too much from the

post pandemic reset. even be aer krom by was down sharply. these place that is have had high inventory relative to sales and yet a batch of retailers the past couple of days seemed to not have that issue at all >> i think it really depends on inventory agility and speed at which you can manage that. walmart and target are world-class omni retailers which will continue to be and the consumer is still there. we're optimistic for the long term not everybody has fared equally well in terms of agilely managing inventory even today macy's, the home trend slowed faster than they expected other parts of the portfolio made up for this as well as lower markdowns. so there's a lot of strong alpha in terms of how to manage through this change. the top lines have been relatively robust, so it's been mainly a gross margin story or gross margins have been hit by

inflation, supply chain and taking markdowns if your inventory was not well positioned >> so final question, we are going to hear from not only costco after the bell but we're going to hear from gap, i believe, some of the other mall retailers as well. are they now going to be on the flip side where retail has run up so much into these results the bar is now substantially higher >> well, at the gap division we're looking at old navy. they've had management changes there so that's something to observe in terms of inventory and the right kind of value, also they change business with inclusive sizing which is a great long-term thing but is not easy to do our pick is you willulta they report soon it's like a home depot for women, skin care, hair care, investing in your face, self-care, that will continue. the hybrid workforce, your face is so important. we prefer beauty

beauty is relatively recession resistant as well, thinking about lipstick and hair care and skin care and how that's so important. >> home depot for women. thank you. we appreciate it oliver chen. coming up, inflation nation. we're live in iowa to look at how americans are dealing with the rising cost, the ceo of deere and the future of farming. one of the most successful firms is out with a dire warning to startups looking to survive. we'll tell you what it is and which public companies are already ahead of the curve and as we head to break, a quick check on markets with the dow up 610 points the nasdaq up 3% and the ten year yield down 276. we're back after this.

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now we've had a bunch of headlines from corporate america about how inflation is impacting their earnings this season now let's get an up close and personal look at just how inflation is hitting the heartland from families to businesses and even farms. brian sullivan is in davenport, iowa, with more for us brian? >> reporter: i'm in davenport with dave. just walking by, big cnbc viewer, right? >> big time. >> reporter: big time. except lately because you bought snowflake and now you have no money left >> snowflake and alibaba >> reporter: it's all about energy, dave you know that. >> i bought chevron. >> reporter: there you go. >> the ceo mike wirth went to my high school. >> reporter: there's an investable reason. inflation changing the way you invest or handle your money, dave >> it's just making my money disappear more >> reporter: there we go dave, thank you. thank you for watching cnbc, my man. maybe i'll see you tonight hey, cnbc viewers all across the country. dave, the consumer, is the

economy -- 75% of the economy is the consumer if the consumer starts to crack because of inflation, the economy starts to crack. if the economy starts to crack, the stock market starts to crack. oh, wait, that's already happened and that's what we're seeing by the way, oliver chen, i think nailed it in your previous segment. he talked about the lower income folks, it's a regressive tax inflation. we went out to a truck stop, crossroads of america, and talked to people about gas prices and inflation >> i can see where it's affecting a lot of owner/operators. it's tough on them companies, five companies, five, ten trucks, are closing their doors because they can't afford the cost of running anymore. >> i think it's about a 30% jump the last few months, and i'm more careful with what to buy. before i didn't think, oh, i'll get this butter, premium one i go down a little bit, maybe a store brand.

>> reporter: so, kelly, the price of diesel has gone from $3.17 to $5.53 in one year and all of that gets passed along. so tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern time we're going to have a special "inflation usa." we're talking about the tugboat business we don't think about that very much the mississippi right over here. the consumer you have john deere, their biggest competitor, their ceo is going to fly in tonight and join us live. we'll talk to the head of a truck stop it's going to be a full view on inflation, hopefully some optimism as well, kelly. we want two pairs of those costco earrings not just one pair what's going on, rudy? rudy's tacos, pretty good here >> what did you mean when you told that guy you were going to see him tonight? >> reporter: well, he literally stood over here and he's like are you the cnbc loudmouth or something like this. yes, that's me and literally we're just

chatting and we're going to be doing our show live from here. >> nice. >> reporter: so the restaurant that's letting us in is doing us a solid. so i'm going to do them a solid. anybody that's kind to us on cnbc, come on in get some beer. get some wings, pay the restaurant back because we're going to show them our time -- they're letting us there for free trying to bring them customers got to do it pay it forward >> like a town square. >> reporter: rudy's tacos and get some lunch how are you doing? >> as he lurks brian, thank you very much >> reporter: scaring people in davenport. see you tonight. >> our brian sullivan. he mentioned deere the investor day is under way and a dire warning about the state of farming right now seema mody is here with all of the details. >> the ceo doesn't talk often on the public stage but he laid out the challenges farmers are facing right now >> the days of abundant

resources in farming inputs is over labor, fertilizer and crop protection inputs just to name a few are all growing in scarcity and they're increasing in cost >> john is betting these challenges will make deere's newest technology appealing to farmers looking for ways to cut costs, the enhanced spray that distributes herbicides, new software in data analytics that can help farmers be more strategic about how they plant and harvest. there are 300,000 connected. the goal is to triple that number by 2026 a long time investor in deere tell me they have a $250 million position in the stock. gabelli's portfolio manager who is in illinois for this investor day says fields need to be planted and harvested every

year if there is a way to reduce costs and increase efficiency, they will explore it shares of deere are rebounding off the lows hit on friday following that disappointing earnings report, up about 10% just this week >> do you think his comments helped this time >> i think the comments, here is where we're spending our money on this new technology and why this will address the chlees farmers are facing, is one thing investors are digesting. there was a call hosted by jeffrey's with the management at deere following that earnings report where they provided some level of confidence to investors the second half of this year they are going to see those supply chain pressures ease. that's what they're hoping >> wouldn't that be nice that's what everybody is hoping. seema, thank you very much seema mody still ahead, if you're trying to protect your portfolio from inflation dividend darlings for some steady income and as we head to break a look at the dow heat map ee mcknd stocks are in the grn,er a j&j back after this.

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welcome back to "the exchange." a strong session as the dow pieces together a five-day win streak consumer discretionary is leading the way. every sector in the green today. consumer discretionary up more than 5% for its best day since the pandemic lows. some of the movers this hour, the ev makers are firmly in the green. tesla on track for its best day since january, still pacing for its fifth down month in the past six. tesla is up 7.5%, back above $700 a share and broadcom for cash and stock,

one of the biggest tech acquisitions behind microsoft's pending deal and dell's purchase of emc six years ago both shares slightly higher. and they are both up 3% today. let's get to tyler mathison now for a cnbc news update tyler? >> kelly, thank you very much. some details are beginning to emerge as officials work to compile a time line of what exactly happened and when in tuesday's school massacre in texas. "the new york times" quotes a texas law official as saying when the shooter first entered the building he exchanged gun fire with two officers who were both injured that official also says it appears most, if not all of those killed, were shot within the first few minutes after the shooter barricaded himself in a classroom for more than an hour. some parents outside the school during that time were frustrated that police didn't go in sooner. on capitol hill senate republicans blocked consideration of a domestic terrorism bill preventing a

debate on the nation's gun policies the democrats' leader in the senate says he had hoped the measure could be a starting point for negotiations and tonight on "the news" how the nra retains power in washington even though it is now being outspent by gun control groups and ray liotta has died at the age of 67. a spokesman says he died in his sleep while shooting a movie in the dominican republic kelly, back to you >> and i learned he was adopted, ty >> is that right very interesting >> we'll learn a lot more about him. we're sad to hear of his passing. we'll see you soon still ahead the tight labor market is benefiting one demographic by far the most. we'll tell you which one, how much more the group is getting paid, and whether job turnover could be peaking but first the cnbc investigation finds the metaverse has been hit with fraud leaving investors thousands of dollars losand t little recourse for getting it back that's next.

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we know the metaverse is the world where you can go shopping or hang out with friends while the term was coined 30 years ago by a science fiction

officer it's a real world investment opportunity as investors we spoke to across the country have learned, virtual reality can leave your investment virtually wiped out here is eamon javers with stealing the metaverse >> it's endless and ever changing what an awesome opportunity. >> users can attend private parties, concerts, gaming events the platforms have names like the sandbox and super world. fraud has hit the new digital frontier in rural maine, a theft online >> i remember you coming into the bedroom, i can't remember what time. it was really late, saying all our land got stolen.

>> reporter: they pioneered the digital frontier until their land was snatched away >> i was so sad. >> you were up all night >> researching and stressing over >> reporter: as a nurse she devotes her career to helping others developing an educational game for medical students i can't even measure the amount of hours i put into that >> reporter: countless hours and $12,000 of savings for this plot of land in the sandbox with one property secured she ventured out to explore other virtual worlds i thought let me check out the land >> reporter: in her search she says she mistakenly clicked on a phishing link that took her to an impostor site >> i didn't even realize it at the time >> reporter: because the site looked legit she connected her digital wallet to the scam site that gave hackers access to her land and within a matter of

minutes -- >> no warning, everything just gone >> reporter: the couple is not the only one to have digital dreams dashed. >> in my mind it sounds like buying a brownstone in manhattan in 1910. >> reporter: tracy, an online fitness instructor, purchased sandbox land near snoop dogg >> he talked about connecting with his fans, holding concerts. it aligned with what i was looking for. >> reporter: she says she lost her nearly $20,000 property to a phishing site posing as the real deal. >> normally when you log in to your account you can see your little piece of land, and it literally just said you have no land i was confused i was upset. i was having a panic attack. >> reporter: but she's not ready to log off the metaverse just yet. >> i don't want to say i'm done for forever.

>> reporter: neither is kerry leigh miller >> it could happen to everyone and is happening to the most sophisticated investors. >> reporter: she owned a slice for a grand total of 24 hours. >> this little box is the property >> reporter: she says she also clicked on a link that took her to a phishing site >> i felt violated >> reporter: that didn't scare her off. she gathered a group of investors to build in the sandbox. >> know that the platforms behind these infrastructure haven't figured out everything >> reporter: a major block chain firm owns the sandbox and invests. celebrities like mark cuban and ashton kutcher have invested in open sea where the virtual lands are sold and tech giants microsoft and softbank have poured money into metamask, the digital wallet we found phishing pages for sale on the dark web where just $400

lands you a phishing wallet promising thousands in return. but taylor monaghan is looking to change that >> ultimately what we want the outcome to be is if you lose your funds there's a path forward where you can recover those funds. >> reporter: she says that's why metamask teamed one a digital asset recovery company to investigate scams for consumers but ultimately, she says, the losses are not metamask's responsibility >> they have not refunded anyone for lost funds in an ideal world we would like to see nobody lose funds worst case where they do, they have the ability to recover those funds. metamask is not the only one in the space being hit by these any big product is >> reporter: we reached out to ask about how secure their platforms really are open seas says it's halting sales on items reported stolen both sandbox and decentral land say they are working to remove

impostor sites and have theft prevention to users. we reached out to these platforms' investors mark cuban was the only one to respond. he says the phishing scams aren't unique to crypto. they affect a lot of big companies, too >> where is law enforcement on this $20,000 worth of my real property was stolen from me, the police would be the first place iwould call. >> reporter: this is very cutting edge and new for law enforcement, too with the digital economy they do have ways of tracking these frauds and thefts, and we're seeing that on the top end when you see a huge crypto theft, law enforcement does have the ability to go in there, track it on the block chain and find out who did it. the volume of these is enormous and under a certain dollar amount i wouldn't expect a whole lot of assistance from law enforcement at this point. there are so many and it costs so much to track them down you might just not be able to get law enforcement's attention to alm of these individual cases. >> that's why it was hopeful to at least think some investors are sophisticated enough to

build ways to get recourse great reporting. we appreciate it very much >> thanks, kelly coming up, the real estate sector underperforming this year as mortgage rates jump higher and with this week's dismal data, is there more pain ahead for investors and sellers. we'll dig into that next

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try it for free at ziprecruiter.com welcome back mortgage rates have been climbing sharply with the 30-year fixed rate over 5% now and that's been putting pressure across the real estate sector but there are some names that held up better than others kristina partsinevelos has today's sectornomics >> reporter: for much of 2022 so far this sector has outperformed the s&p 500. that's until the last month or so when sharp declines put it in line with the broader market and i want to take a look at opportunities that could be out there. we ran a screen looking at stocks in the sector with positive performance in the past

12 months or so, then we narrowed it down to the names above average or with above average dividend yields. in this case we're looking at anything just above 3% and the results are in the top spot goes to data and records management firm iron mountain whose dividend yield is around 4.8%. then we have three retail focus names like reality income, regency centers and kimco. i want to end on extra space storage which has been one of the sectors more disappointing players, down about 24% thus far, but still holding on to gains over the past 12 months. so, kelly, even in a sluggish sector, of course there are still options for investors looking for steady income. you just have to dig for it. >> there's always opportunity. gold in them there hills kristina, thank you very much. let's stick with real estate if the recent data has shown anything, the housing market is slowing fast housing starts this week, weaker than expected.

the lowest level since october of 2021. you can see that behind me here. yesterday mortgage purchase applications fell to the slowest pace since may of 2020, going back two years home builder sentiment, the weakest since june 2020. declines since april new home sales missed estimate by a wide margin that woke everybody up and then today pending home sales dropped to a two-year low, the sixth straight monthly decline. does all of this indicate a major cooldown ahead in what's been a red-hot market? let's welcome in danielle hale for realtor.com. what can realtor.com tell us what additional light can you shed on what's happening in the market here? >> hi, kelly our data we've shown the cooldown in sales is being seen in the real estate market by the metrics we track and that is the number of homes available for sale to buyers has increased

with buyers choosier and more sellers trying to take advantage of the hot real estate market we're seeing the number of options available to buyers increase for the first time in the last three years now to put that into context, we're still at a much lower level than we were before the pandemic, so the number of homes for sale is relatively scarce. this is the first time we've seen a substantial increase in the last three years the market is shifting in a big way. >> so we know sales activity is slowing, inventory is coming up somewhat are prices going to drop >> you know, i think that's a question that's on everyone's minds. we know that prices are now higher than they were. they've risen pretty much consistently over the past ten years. it's a huge run-up in prices last year and the year before lower mortgage rates cushioned the blow buyers could navigate the higher prices with no problem because monthly payments were dropping even though prices were rising because of lower mortgage rates. fast forward to today and we're in the opposite environment

where mortgage rates are rising adding extra pain to the cost of higher housing so we're seeing buyers are under a lot of pressure right now. monthly costs are up 50% relative to a year ago that is causing buyers to think twice before jumping in and slowing the overall sales pace >> still, i wonder how much pent-up demand there is for housing because i have friends who are still being outbid by all cash offers and people waiving the inspections and things like that, and i'm talking about people looking at homes this weekend >> that's the interesting thing. our data does show home price hasn't slowed down that much sellers are asking for higher prices homes continue to sell quickly even though we're seeing the number of homes available for sales grow, it's much lower than it was before the pandemic the housing market is still competitive. we are seeing signs the winds

are changing, shifting back in a buyer friendly direction interestingly because 72% of sellers are also planning to buy a home, what's good for the buyer may also, surprisingly, be good for the seller. >> that's true mortgage rates have been working against them now danielle, thanks for your insight. we appreciate it >> absolutely. >> danielle hale, realtor.com. hourly average earnings climbing steadily to almost $32. bank of america took a deep dive into the workers seeing the biggest pay increases. we have the details and why the turnover rate could be stabilizg. at nt.inth'sex

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have you here, david you were able to give a broader measure, sta right >> thank you for having me on. >> bank of america has a lot of customers. we're using 9 million of 9 million of our customers and we are looking at pay raises year on year in that data set we find in the net annual rise of about 9.2%. so, yeah, as you were saying in your intro it is real pay growth across the data set. >> that said, even if there's 9% growth and 8% inflation that's not going to feel that great t people so you can understand why sent iment has been as dim as it has, but where are you seeing the most hopeful signs and the biggest pay gains? >> this is very interesting. if you look at the age distribution and the threats of that data, you see gen-z and

millennials receiving strong rises. so from the gen-z, it's close to 20% and the millennials just about 10% and when you cut the data just to look at people who changed firm, you can see that the average pay rise is around 20%. >> wow >> so very strong -- very strong increases for people who are prepared to lose jobs. basically, you want to be young and move jobs and then you will get the big rise >> wow what are your takeaways from this as we debate the fed's next steps because this is the key for the inflation and the economy. in some ways the labor market is too tight. what does the data tell us >> that's a good point so basically what our data shows is it certainly has been very tight if you look at the number of people moving jobs every

month. what we are seeing in our data, and i think this is out by some other data sources out there currently and it's a whiff of cooling off in the market. the job change data we're looking at is eased back, but the big caveat to underline it is this is easing back from white-hot levels so we're really looking like the market that don't halt >> and so what would you say you find those livering below their 50,000 and those with incomes above less than an 8% gain so a lot of this has paid off for lower income workers and we're starting to see signs of start-up companies laying off workers and technology companies slowing hiring and things like that when people want to extrapolate that to say a drop in the monthly payrolls report does

your data support that or suggest that that's jumping too much to that conclusion? >> i think that's jumping the gun and the reason is partly because of this rotation we're seeing in consumers from spending on goods during the pandemic to spending on services, and as that rotation occurs there are always going to be some losers in that rotation in terms of businesses and i suspect some of the job announcements and the negative stories you've seen are from people who weren't counting on that rotation or maybe slightly in terms of building up the database during the pandemic period i don't think you can read across into an underlying deterioration yet. our data says it might be easing and from very strong levels. i can't tell from behind you if you're work from home or not anything you can tell us the impact work from home is something and its likely to

stick around >> that's a good point i mean, there isn't a lot in the data i presented in the report that wouldn't straighten that. i think what i can say is that, you know, just from my own experience is that i think some is there is some rebound in services and the return to office, as well, but there's still residual stickiness there. >> yeah. some stickiness that we certainly pick up on in terms of what employees want to do right now. great, it's great to have you today. >> thank you very much >> david tinsley with bank of america. one vc firm says this is tech's crucible moment and calling on founders to cut costs. those details after this quick break and the dow is at session highs and we're still above 570 hexcng b "t ehae"ack after this

welcome back, everybody. venture capital firm sequoia out with another dire warning with a quote, spiral from the death swan kate roony is here with all of the details. kate >> sequoia to founders, preserve cash, cut costs or you will not make it through the slowdown i got a copy of the 52-page, and people pay attention to these memos and it's been one of the most successful silicon valley firms over the decades and sequoia calling this moment a crucible moment for founders that doesn't see the economy bouncing back as they say, any time soon warning start-ups to tighten their belts and we have alfred lynn and other big-name sequoia partners talking about political conflicts limiting now what policymakers can do to step in unlike 2020, this correction

won't be followed by a v-shaped recovery sequoia also warns of what they call a death spiral. companies that they describe as growing too fast without slowing spending and they can show it on the chart and growth at all costs are over and investors are rewarding discipline, instead. we had meta, uber, freezing, hiring, robinhood and netflix with layoffs and the job cuts are now starting to pile up at private companies as well. bolt and karina were this week, i spoke to michelle bailey this week and she said sequoia doesn't also mean job cuts and it can mean rnd and certain start-ups, she says, she'd keep the foot on the gas pedal right now and the playing field has gotten tougher and that could also be an opportunity for some of these companies back to you. >> that is the question. is there something that is specific to this market or not >> it's interesting. they mentionedsome of the

historical analogies you've got google. you've got uber that was built in a downturn. they've been through cycles like this before and it could be a great time to build the company if you're disciplined and you cut costs and there are big examples of that that you point to and we're investors in. >> back to how it emerged in the financial crisis kate, thank you very much. our kate rooney reporting. we have a market veteran who doesn't see a recession this year due to one key metric and he'll reveal it on "power lunch" beginning right now. ♪ ♪ kelly, thank you welcome, everybody, to this day's "power lunch." i'm tyler matheson here's what's ahead. we have a rally on wall street the s&p down so far this week. is there value to be found at these levels yes, says one of our guests and he's got crude to