weekend. looks like we're going to open up higher. 30 points higher on the s&p 500, 137 points on the nasdaq make sure you join us next week. becky, have a great weekend. mike, have a great weekend "squawk on the street" beginning right now. >> thank you good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber and leslie picker. jim cramer has the day off the bulls were hoping for a pce print and we got it. more double-digit losers in retail, maybe some month-end positioning a head of the weekend. a possible winning week, all three indices on track for gains, 3% to 4%. the s&p poised for its first weekly gain in eight >> and those on inflation watch, signs of price increases could be slowing and, the fed's gauge

rose 4.9% last month and a retail roundup with the consumer in focus. costco, big lots, gap among the names reporting. >> the broader markets on track for their first weekly gains since march. we've talked about the ups and downs regarding differen sectors. but first equity inflow in seven weeks as well. >> it's that time. fun flows reshgs balances, a lot of people not willing to take any risk at this point but that has or tends to have to potentially have a positive impact as we near the end of the month, right what do we have? one more trading day, right? >> one more trading day. holiday weekend. people are in good spirits. >> are they? >> well, i don't know. everyone was saying, bear market rally, kind of been the -- >> feel better after this week if you were long in the market given the gains we've had. no to dutt about that. >> given the inflation print,

maybe able to afford hot dogs better >> costco didn't raise the price of the hot to dog combo. but there's a lot of talk about bear market rallies. i mean, make santoli has all the history on them. that is another question, that's what we're in the midst of right now. >> whether it's sustainable. a new month, fresh start but about $20 billion in inflows, which was the highest i think going all the way back to ten weeks or so, but outflows were $5.8 billion. but the biggest inflow asset class is cash, which could suggest that people were still looking for those traditional safe havens and looking areas to hunker down. >> bofa calling for a correction for more than a year today, summer rally bandwagon is growing. more clients potentially trying to position ahead of what they argue may be a jackson hole pivot. this idea of a fed pause later in the year is one thing that

they're hanging their hat on rallies of 4,200 but we're not in a rush, which i thought was interesting. >> that is interesting, especially seeing analysts talk about how the recent price action may be overestimating at least how soon a recession risk. is it further in the future, or are stocks really pricing in that full recession now i think is a debate we'll be having later this hour with some of our big market desks still, $8 trillion drawdown in stock since january. >> it is amazing the whipsaw worried about, i mean, too much growth, inflation, now recession, now everybody's talking about the fed already taking its foot off or i should say actually not tightening for as long as we thought they would. >> yeah. >> it's very hard to understand it listen, by the way, many of the asset managers i speak to continue to be, in their words, confused as we look at the moves

so far this year that's the right number? >> yeah. >> all right >> we started the week with jpmorgan's annual shareholder meeting, the first since before the pandemic, and we got some pretty optimistic outlook from chairman and ceo jamie diamond, talking about this isn't a tsunami, a hurricane, and that's in the event of a recession. then they raised guidance for net interest income, which sent all sorts of rate-sensitive stocks higher for the week you kind of heard some of those comments echoed yesterday at morgan stanley's annual meeting i tuned into, j where james foreman said the same thing, the consumer is strong, there's of course a recession risk out there, but we're not seeing this as just this catastrophic event. >> yeah. the consumer is interesting. a lot of the bank ceos, i think

moynihan said consumer account balances are multiples of what they were precovid consumers spent 10% more in the first two weeks of may than they spent in the prior two weeks of may last year. so this idea that you've got excess saving that's going to last you a while, but i don't know if you noticed in the print this morning, saving rate goes to 4.4% from 5%. so we are definitely -- >> depleetdtidepleting. >> -- burning th ining the wood oven how long does it last. >> higher gas prices are starting to affect demand for gas and if you exclude 2020 and the covid shourns, they actually saw the lowest level of gas demand going back to 2013 as a result of these higher gas prices, which of course -- i think it was last week, every single state surpassed $4 a gallon that's actually starting to take effect we'll see if the memorial day weekend, historically a big travel weekend, changes thing, but you're starting to see data

points that suggest that higher gas prices are really starting to change consumer habits. >> i'm happy to report that i still ul have a sense as to how much the nasdaq is down for the year, so when i saw 34.96%, it was wrong. it's 24.96%. we've corrected it now just in case you thought it was an even worse year and of course we have come back. the beginning of this week, we were far lower than that >> close to 30 from the highs. but yalt, hopefully don't get to those numbers. we talk about the consumer, another wild ride for retail today.we talk about the consume another wild ride for retail today. courtney reagan has some of the good news. >> it's so hard to find one narrative really that sums up all the retail oen all of the consumer because we're not even seeing consistency among retail subsectors. no retailer of course is going to be exempt from inflationary costs or changing consumer preferences.

but each is anticipating and then managing all those variables a little differently dollar tree, dollar general, and tjx issued strong starts to the year and upped the forecasts, but it's not clear as to just point of momentum for retailers catering to more inflation-sensitive sums because competitors like walmart and target, raw stores, big lots, and even gap with its old navy business, took down annual guidance after underestimating some of the first quarter pressures. to be clear, some of those certainly more on the corporate side than the consumer side. then we have williams sonoma, ralph lauren, canada goose, nordstrom and macy's issuing forecasts going forward and wayfair, amazon, sally beauty, cole's, american eagle and abercrombie looking at the balance of the year with a little bit more concern. and i would argue all of those names sort of play in the same space. some retailers are taking more prudent approaches to forecasting and they do that often even after strong starts to the year.

it's just sort of in their dna some analysts are putting dick's sporting goods in that camp, saying, look, so far things are good they're just being cautious and conservative going forward others have deeper wounds. gap, inc., is quantifying the full-year cost of fix the old navy business andthe incremental costs, so things like air freight and commodity costs, that's going to take time to correct i think really the only conclusion that we could draw across the consumer landscape is just a risky proposition if you're only trying to paint everyone with one broad brush. you have to do your home work. you have to look at the nuances. just because a retailer put up poor results doesn't mean the consumer was bad it might have been a mismanagement of the business. the question is can they fix that as the balance of the year moves forward, and can they do it before consumer preferences change again back to you. >> yeah. i mean, the conversation, some of these gap numbers, courtney, the guidance, the inventory, the

gross margin miss of nine points, i mean, a lot of that is going to feed the argument you just have the wrong stuff, and even as they argue -- >> yes >> -- as we said yesterday regarding macy's, people shopping for apparel in much different ways >> absolutely, carl. if you look at gap and the old navy division, that's responsible for about half the profit gap had warned a couple weeks ago that revenue was going to be lower than anticipated and they more or less alluded to the problems for old navy. now we have the details. just to your point, they kind of missed the mark on fashion they didn't have the right stuff in the store for what consumers were wanting to buy. you know that old navy skews a little more casual, right. it's more active they sell a good amount of kids and baby the ceo told me yesterday that's just not what customers were buying we just weren't in the right position with the fashion we had. they also sort of overindexed in some of their extended signs in the store, so they missed on

that mark too. the inventory was up 34% they've just -- they had a lot of execution issues there on top of the changing consumer preferences also not matching up with what they did have there. so there's a lot of work to be done on that one >> courtney, thanks. the wild week we've had in retail >> important to remember many of these retailers are still generating a decent amount of cash and -- >> cash is king. >> cash is king. my old friend david berman, friend of the show who comes on with us every so often on retail points out he's got 15 retailers he tracks with cash greater than 30% of the market cap, which, you know, tends to be not necessarily a negative, you know, market where you might see private equity activity, which is one although kohl's, who knows that is something they can look at private equity gravitates towards retail even though the track record is not particularly good >> i was going to say they've

been burned in the past, but i wonder if the dispersion creates opportunities for m&a. that's what i was going to ask you about on the sponsor or strategic side as companies look to beef up their capabilities with these supply chain issues, inflation issues, great costs. you'd think in this environment bigger would be better so for a lot of the prophesies are -- >> yeah. you listen to courtney, no wonder some people can be confused because such a wide range of outcomes at this point. started off with walmart and target coloring things in a negative fashion, and amazon, but a lot of mixed picture at this point it does lead to an inability -- but maybe you want to look at cash flow and cash and sort of focus on that. also an interesting week we should point out the 10-year was above 3.00 not to listening ago. now where are we 2.7? 2.6? there's been a big move this bonds. if you were lucky to have bought

them not that long ago or munis, you've done quite well >> mortgage rates also ticking down >> as we pointed out, that bofa call targeting 2.25. we're not there yet. >> moving in the right direction. >> the call was 3.0 and people said what are you thinking but i think peak fed funds pricing was 3.4 and it's come down to 2.9. definitely a lot of traderings reading some tea leaves. when we come back, we'll talk more about what we might expect on the last couple sessions of the month. we'll talk to citi's chef equity strategist as they downgrade u.s. equities a bit. and got some decent action in tech today with dell don't go away. another crazy day? of course—you're a cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place.

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i just missed it, i missed that great sound we haven't done it in a long time every so often we would check on the status of spax still in terms of at least how important you would claim the asset classes any longer before the spacs company, the high-level tech names, it was spacs that got beaten up first and that continues to be case. a number did deals that can't

get going concern letters. but we like to take a look at how many are out there still looking for deals because it's truly a staggering number. 591 spacs, $160 billion in proceeds are still looking for that deal. that deal that's going to work, keep the spac above ten bucks, keep that promise and excitement we've had the s.e.c. all over this sector, but never actually having doneanything, as far as i can remember, leslie, like gents ler talked a lot >> actually, david -- >> tell me >> -- mark your calendar because tuesday is the date that the comment period ends for those new rules surrounding spacs there was a big chill in the market because underwriters could be facing a greater liability for underwriting spacs if, for example, some of those financial projections turn out to be wrong.

these new rules would make underwriters much more on the hook for those as opposed to kind of saying we underwrote the deal like we would for a traditional ipo. >> there were so many different things we talked so often about this. for such a long period of time early on to our credit in terms of the fact that the sponsor and the shareholders did not have the same incentives in any way and so many other things, including as leslie points out, the projections that often came as a result of the fact that it wasn't a traditional underwriting and therefore you could say anything you wanted, including, hey, we're going do this number in 2027. it's going to be great >> yep. >> no longer the case. the ipo pipeline, still 180 spacs waiting to go public so far this year, 68 spacs have raised $11.6 billion even though we didn't weigh in specifically on spacs, what's a day without a tweet from elon musk it is 9:17 we haven't mentioned him

>> wow >> so there he is. he's answering somebody. listen, good point, based on past experience, 12 to 18 months companies that are inherently negative cash flow value need to die so they can stop consuming resources. law of the jungle. >> was it sequoia this week that issued that warning to portfolio companies and others i think 250 portfolio companies on a call saying ing conserve y cash, we're in for a crucible-like moment. >> a good slide deck, like 52 slides i tweeted it last night. a lot of worry in there. >> a lot of warning and worry. >> take another look at the futures. looks like we'll obviously start green, try to finish green for the week and as for the month, dow needs about 340 points to break even don't go anywhere.

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as the tape looks good this morning, zscaler, marvell doing well, tesla, back to 723 the opening bell is just under nine minutes

welcome back citi's u.s. equity strategist is back joining us. great to have you here >> good to be here >> interesting note today. your recession risk view you say a u.s. recession is not a sure case. but shortly before the start of a recession, this time it may happen earlier because we have

elements of the deflating bubble what is recession risk right now? >> so our economic view would be that there is probably a 50/50 chance of a recession in the 2023 time frame. so we've been modeling out, you know, a base case that assumes a soft landing scenario for the s&p, which has enabled us to be somewhat more constructive the better part of this year back to our long-standing 4,700 antarctica et for the market >> do we think the 10-year gets back to 3.20 >> the house view here is that the 10-year by the end of the year falls back towards the 2.45 level. i would say importantly, though, we're keeping an eye on nominals as well as real yields real yields are a little above zero the point we've been making on this, i'd like to stress, is that as real yields move above zero in our view, the

connection-to-price action begins to lessen, particularly for the growth side of the market >> i'm curious, you know, we have the banner there saying that citi down graded u.s. stocks to neutral and you believe that stocks could peak before we reach a recession. do you think they already have peaked at this point if we're looking, say, into 2023 for potential recession even if it is a soft landing? >> right i'm going to turn the discussion around a little bit. our global strategists have taken u.s. down to a neutral stance, okay for my view, looking more specifically at u.s. equities, again, the way we're thinking about this is that the bulk of the rising rate impact has been felt on valuations already it's been a particular issue for the growth side of the market more so than the value side of the market what we're still concerned with here, though, particularly as we move into the q2 reporting period, is that we'll begin to see lower guidance perhaps for

the second half of this year, but we still think the '23 earnings outlook is a swing item and how we think about recession or not what i would highlight looking historically, and this is very important to keep an eye on, is that historically earnings have risen while the fed is actually tightening and raising the fed funds rate essentially, the fed is responding to strong economic activity and earnings respond to the strong economic activity historically it's one the fed begins to stop raising that you begin to see the earnings risk, if you will, to the market again, that would sync with weakening economic conditions and activity >> that's interesting because i've heard so much about just the uncertainty of rates and the challenge that poses for investors. but it sounds like you're saying that it's not so much the actual delta and rates increasing but it's once they do actually reach a level of stability that then you start to see more of a negative reaction on the

earnings part of the equation. >> that's mostly how it's played out. so it comes back to the same issue we're contending with in the markets to your earlier question the market has been quick to price in recession risk, and we've been highlighting that it actually is pricing in recession risk but not the actuality of a recession itself so let's frame this. our base case recession scenario had been 3,650 on the s&p. my official year-end target is 4,700, which we'll call soft landing. as the market, you know, sold off below 4,000 within mid-single digits of that let's call it recession scenario, you begin to look at a risk/reward to a soft landing scenario bias on the side of the ward if you will that helps put perspective on the move we've seen in the past several days also what you have to consider is that we're still essentially discounting recession risk for a

recession possibility that's many, many months out. so in between all of that, we have to expect continued volatility but, again, our point here would be the bulk of the rising rate influence priced in, the focus begins to shift more me nigh a maniacally to the earnings side of the discussion. >> we have the bell in about a minute core pce was a big headline today. how do you see inflation moderating especially given the risks around food which jane frazier told thus week from davos? >> well, so, it depends which inflation measure for which commodity, okay, so the grain segment of the commodities market has been obviously, you know, very strong of late for the reasons that you're suggesting energy prices rolling over, we're seeing some economic data

coming in a touch below expectations supporting the view that inflation is beginning to plateau, potentially roll over, as economic activity plateaus and shows some signs of rolling over the market's been pretty clear about pricing in the fed funds futures curve that's suggesting fed funds, you know, begin to continue to move higher into the first part of 2023 the point here that as you begin to see inflation indicators plateau or begin to weaken, you take some of the pressure off the view that the fed's going to have to tighten further and -- higher and longer, and that sets up for the relief valve in the market that helps explain what we've been seeing in the past few days >> scott thanks for that good to see you. have a great weekend >> have a great weekend. >> hawks acquisition corp. and at the nasdaq, celsius

celebrating its 15th listing anniversary. we haven't mentioned costco, beats by a couple of cents you mentioned the hot dog/soda combo. it's interesting that costco monitors social media and they saw the rumors floating around they were going to raise the price. as we said in our documentary i don't know how many years ago, they will never change $1.50 they will never go above $1.50 their third party vendor tried to do it and they moved the whole operation in house >> they make a loss because they want to get you in the store and get you to buy the chicken and buy the hot to dg, then they can make the money elsewhere the types of things that people were buying at costco did have that kind of same theme we've been hearing from retailers. it was jewelry, not office supplies, of course what we've seen recent i with more people working from home. it was kiosks, part of that same reopening trade we've been talking about for a year and a half now >> reading through the calls,

other interesting things, by the way, pretax income up 11% for quarter. it's $1.827 billion compared to $1.65 billion from the year-ago period tax rate about 25% so right around what it's been they opened fewer warehouses than they thought, 14 so far in the fiscalear, but 2 of 24 impacted by supply chain issues related to electric equipment, in terms of the ability to open those warehouses to your point, leslie, people will look through this to get sense where the buying is taking place. now it's changed as people have fully reengaged in going out into the world >> look at ulta today. unbelievable $6.30 beats $4.45. concept return, looking for 8, jeffries goes up, and they raise the guidance comps now up 6 to 8, prior was 3

to 4 people want to look good they're going somewhere. >> makeup is now above 2019 levels in terms of sales for them that shows they are seeing that growth we called it a two-year stack. now it's almost a three-year but showing growth >> i guess it makes sense if you're going to events, weddings, if you're not only concerned about half of your face with wearing a mask, you need to buy lipstick, new, i don't know,foundation, hair supplies, what have you because people want to emerge and that has pent-up demand. >> your number-one s&p gainer, ulta beauty up almost 9.5% a lot of discussion on squawk this morning about the movies and "top gun" this weekend got our first look at the new indiana jones yesterday from paramount. so watch paramount and watch i max, which by the way, i think it rosenblatt nt to a buy earlier in the week because even though it's only 1% of screens, they actually punch way above their weight on opening weekend getting like 10% of revenue because movies -- certainly the

kinds of movies they're now releasing in theaters are the kinds of movies you would rather see in a theater than an your home team. >> you going to go >> to "top gun"? yeah, of course. i want to wait to see it in imax >> they said on "squawk box" it was supposed to have a $100 million weekend, the highest gross of any of tom cruise's movies. >> adjusted for weight >> nobody promotes like cruise >> nobody does >> nobody. the man is relentless. guys, speaking of relentless and elon musk comes to mind, of course, twitter, what's a day without mentioning it. a couple news items here not related to that striped suit, by the way. the s.e.c. finally releases a letter sent on april 4th remember the initial filing in twitter from musk, it was a 13g, seemed to have come late, then we questioned why it was a "geshgs" at all, especially given only a handful of weeks

later he already had a deal to buy the company. the s.e.c. is kind of asking the same questions or did back on april 4th. the conclusion reached and the date of the event and basically why he didn't tell us sooner because he seemed to have reached a number that would have required reporting sooner, and why the g is not a d and on from there. no response from musk, though. again, april 4th is when it's dated. then for twitter itself, durban going to remain a busy man interestingly, he didn't get enough votes to stay on the company's board. they had their annual meeting. but the company is going to keep him anyway durban has been a busy man i talked about him yesterday because he along with michael dell were the main owners of the mware and the main negotiators for vmware, so to speak, given they combined on 50% of the company with oktan of broadband.

durban sits on i think six other boards that was the reason why many of the proxy advisory firms told those who vote to vote against him. that's why he didn't get enough votes to stay on the board however, the board has determined not to accept his resignation in connection with the agreement. the board considered the recommendation of the nominating committee and everything else but said that basically they still feel like in light of his overall contributions to the board they're confident he has sufficient capacity to fulfill his fiduciary duties he's an important part of that board, durban. you want tough guys on the board in case you go to litigation, which still seems more likely than not at some point you end up in court here and interesting, they chose to keep him and he said okay, i'll stay >> he's an associate he's friendly with elon musk, at least according to the -- you read the merger background, they had a lot of dialogue throughout the process with jack dorsey

i wonder if the overboarding issue is less of an issue for private companies than public companies. i sec isx, that's -- if you're on six boards, can you devote the attention to it. >> liberty is on, like, eight or nine boards, although he's a capable guy. if i can think of anybody who might be able to, kind of all over the place, maybe he can focus for 20 minutes on everything the way he needs to le fay, not durban but twitter shares down a little bit. haven't heard anything from musk in terms of the extra -- the additional equity he'll have to come up with because he cancelled that margin loan trying to determine where things -- remember, there were reports about preferred, wondering if that's still out there. as we said yesterday, leslie, there are plenty of people who want to sninvest so there is

potentially a pool of equity available to him, but we shall see. >> how much easier is it to roll your equity over he's been supposedly -- >> waleed is doing that and dorsey might do it i think we expunge the thought that musk could buy more on the open market right now given he signed the n desda as far as wee aware. >> and a look at the class action lawsuit as well >> all right >> the same arguments as what the s.e.c. is saying with regard to disclosure rules, the g versus the d, did they file it late and also the idea of saying that the buyout was temporarily on hold, which had the effect of sending twitter shares down. >> we are still on hold, right hasn't come out with a tweet that says no hold. >> in theory, all deals are on hold until the close >> that's true that may be what the board is

waiting for. you get the vote from shareholders if he doesn't complete at some point, although plenty of people argue he's already breached one. >> with less financial risk, theoretically that should diminish at least some of the risk that was out there before when he did have that margin loan in place. >> which is why twitter shares were up yesterday, up today as long >> first crack above 4,100 since may 6th or so. tesla, $100 off the low, $620 was the low back on may 24th interesting, though, some coverage of ford and the f-150 lightning, the first pickup that's an ev to get delivered, who had a reservation for a cybertruck, ended up getting a refund on that because it's obviously -- he said whatever pickup that comes in ev first, that's the one i'm buying. bloomberg wrote him up yesterday.

that's the fes-150 we'll see those. >> on the road toyota cut their global production plan for june citing covid-19 lockdown in shanghai. they do still expect to produce 9.7 million vehicles, but there is a possibility of a lower estimate there they reduce their plan output for june by 50,000 vehicles to 800,000. again, this is just a theme we've been seeing, the overall impact of those lockdowns on these multinational companies. >> shares of gap we talked about down about 7% right now. do we have a long-term gap remember the success that this stock had right after the pandemic began was it '20 or '21? an enormous, now down. that kind of puts it in perspective, now down 70% for the year the last 12 months. you can see what it's done in the last five years as well. roughly $3.8 billion market

value. they kind of got their sizing wrong. >> yes, with old navy. >> yes >> a bright spot was banana republic i keep getting these targeted ads for baby clothes they started launching. it is like $80 for a toddler dress. i mean, the pricing -- it's like the same as what they charge for adult dresses. i do wonder how that will play out, although they are cute clothes. >> are they? >> i haven't bought any yet. >> what about baby gap is that still a thing? >> definitely a thing. >> i know old navy was down 22, comps down 22 at old navy, gap down 11. thank goodness for banana, which was up about 27. had some comments about inventory and inflation with the consumer take listen. >> we entered the first quarter anticipating a slowdown from th lapse of the stimulus from last

year but we saw more profound weakness in the quarter at old navy and north america as they were most exposed to the rising inflation environments impacting our lower-income customers accordingly, we have taken a more cautious outlook and are moderating our top-line growth expectations as requested in our revised paper. >> not just gap of course. keep your eye on american eagle, off the opening low but still down almost 8% big lots was the other blowup today. that has not recovered quite as well, down almost 15%. it was a surprise loss, revenue miss inventory up almost 50 inventory at almost 50 and comps down 17. they said trends termly slowed in april, but we keep hearing from macroeconomic desks, ethan harris from bofa, who said this is not surprising. we knew there would be a wallet shift from goods to services and they're not lowering consumption

forecast in this case, the retailers are on the wrong end of the mix. >> it feels darwinian in that those consumer-facing businesses that are more easily to pivo their inventory and supply chain are able to weather this so much better and there's why you're seeing the divergence and all of the different reactions to earnings. a lot has do with forecasts and this idea that many, many businesses were planning on this inflation lasting as long as it has and now it's become clear it's here to stay, although today's macro read was brighter than it has been but still, it's a matter of kind of how you adjust that, how quickly you can without it really affecting the margins, onshoring and -- >> what's ironic is when supply chain was problem, they got enough inventory they double ordered and brought in a ton of cloefts and now they have too much. it was almt impossible to get that balance just right. the discounting will be the huge story of the summer. >> it's not just the retail

industry there are any number of industry where is, you know, similar kinds of things, including with chips, obviously, as we know, trying to get access to them and then overordering so to speak. guys, before we go, and speaking of chips to a certain extent, been a good week for michael dell wanted to look at shares of dell because yesterday we were talking about, and i just mentioned, selling his 40% stake or ownership of vmware to broadcom at quite a significant premium. michael is just -- he's rich, getting richer all the time. dell technologies had a very strong quarter revenues were up 16%, growth across infrastructure solution, client solutions generated first quarter operating income of $1.6 billion. that was 57% above a year ago, and what they also say is record nongap operating income, $2.1 billion. that was up 21%.

a very positive response there warren buffett chose to go hpe dell is not bad and hasn't been for quite some time. that's been performing strongly. the stock is call it flat over the last year. in this market, flat is good >> this stock price is helping hpe as well, up 5% hpq, not related, up 6%. >> zscaler and autodesk, a couple other success stories today in tech. apple, 10% off of the may lows so we're up 4,100. let's get to bob pisani. hey, bob >> 300 points, carl. we were 3,810 six days ago on the s&p 500, 4,100 right now that's a remarkable rally, 7% or so i want to show you the sectors because this is a very good indication that people are trying to catch up

consumer discretionary is the worst performing group of the year it's the best one today here we see ulta, best buy, all the travel stocks are up tech is another weak performer but all the megacaps are trading up industrials have been underperforming for a while now, they're outperforming today, and the number-one sector of the year, energy stocks, is underperforming. here's a lot of classic reverse, how oversold consumer discretionary was right now. as for where we are right now in this market rally, we're up about 7% from the low of last friday, that was 3,810, as i recall why is this happening? interest rates are lower and the main story is fed fund futures are showing some kind of pause in the fall. there's a lot of debate about how long that will last or what it means, but this whole thing today, a lot on the whole pce story today. the number came in just the way they wanted it, in line with

expectations core pce of 4.9% now the bulls have a narrative saying core pce is peaking, it has two consecutive months now they're trying to put together a narrative, the bulls, saying peak inflation is here and we need data points to support this this may be true it doesn't mean the fed will take its foot off the brake, but i think the important thing is at least they have a data point. this would have been a five-handle today, we wouldn't have seen this kind of rally that we've had it's still way too early to declare victory. on retail, i home you listened to courtney regan. ult ta beauty, strong demand costco, lower margins and raising prices even though they have amazing numbers, 92% renewal rate gap, higher costs, deeper discounts. the only concept is generally

struggling with costs above expectations is a general theme i have seen here as for costco, what can i say? one of the most amazing companies out there. just look at this earnings number here. 2020, $9, 2021, $11, 2022, $13, 2023, $14. this is consistent 10% to 15% earnings growth and with a renewal rate they just announced of 92% that is amazing. this is why the investment community loves costco this is about as steady as it gets in terms of overall earnings growth. carl, look at the chart here down about 25% in thelast month, this is entirely due to multiple compression it's gone from about 45 to 35. the earnings estimates haven't gone down at all because of the numbers today, supportive of strong earnings, that's why you're seeing some assistant in costco. what a wonderfully managed company, my gosh carl, back to you. >> bob, thanks bob pisani if you haven't already done so,

take an opportunity to join cnbc pro. it's pretty fantastic. find out more by scanning the code on your screen. as we go to break, look at the bond reports, see how treasuries are doing. yields lower across the curve but still consumer sentiment numbers coming up at the top of the hour, one of the final economic prints of the week. don't go away. at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will help you create a comprehensive wealth plan for your full financial picture. with the right balance of risk and reward. so you can enjoy more of...this. this is the planning effect. esg is responsible investing. so you can enjoy more of...this. who's responsible for building esg into your investments? at pgim, the pursuit is on for outperformance. as active investors, to outdeliver with customized strategies, integrating esg best practices into our investment decisions.

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blue had a baby. that's impossible. aida is pretty special. we needed her to help us fix a terrible mistake. is that a dinosaur on your sholder? yeah. why? dow still flirting with going green to the month, but some of the week-to-date s&p gainer, given all the angst, there's still some winners out there. as we're up 228. back to 4112 don't go away.

as the summer season is about to get underway, the hamptons rental market is feeling a chill. robert frank joins us with the detail something tells me that's not about the weather. i looked at the forecast it's supposed to be pretty nice this weekend. >> yeah, weather looking a lot better than the rental market. hampton real estate is always closely tied to the stock market we're seeing a sharpdown, at least on the rental side, prices

falling 26%. there has been a huge jump in supply last year and in 2020 it was almost impossible to find a rental by early may. now there are hundreds on the market, and some owners are cutting prices 30% or more rather than leaving them empty more of the wealthier are traveling this summer, especially to europe it's a more com better mood and more price sensitivity, especially the high end. many people who used to rent in the hamptons ended up buying over the past two years, so the pool of renters is a lot smaller. if you're still looking, you can rent this on surfside drive. $300,000 a week, or $1.2 million a month. if you're on a bit more of a budget, a 900 square foot cottage in southampton, only 48 grand for the summer

sales have also slowed a bit, but their prices continue to rise with the average sales price at $2.6 million. carl >> thanks, robert. as we go to break, take a look at the markets here, trying to close out the markets on some buying of course we have a long weekend, which maybe some of that gets frond loaded into today, but the dow is up almost 300 points don't go away. like the time she spotted the neighbor kid, an approaching car, a puddle, and knew there was going to be a situation. ♪ ♪ ms. hogan's class? yeah, it's atlantis. nice. i don't think they had camels in atlantis. really? today she's a teammate at truist, the bank that starts with care when you start with care, you get a different kind of bank.

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good friday morning. welcome to another hour on "squawk on the street. i'm here with leslie picker and david faber. morgan brennan is off. there's something for everybody today. some macro, dow was maybe 100 points from going green. here's rick santelli. >> yes, carl, these are definitely last numbers before the holiday weekend. the headline is not pretty university of michigan moves down to 58.4 what's note worthy here is to find a smaller number, you have

to go back to 2011 so not a very strong michigan sentiment. current conditions moves from a mid month read down to 63.3. what lies ahead, known as expectations, moves from 56.3, to 55.2, all of them deteriorated one-year inflation, 5.3 versus 5.4. that is good news, because 5.4 was the highest level since 1981 on the five to ten-year inflation, we continue to see 3.0. this is the 1, 2, 3, fourth month in a row we see interest rates have move down on the day and the week down two on the day, down a dozen on the week basis points ten-year at 271, down four basis points on the day, down seven

basis points on the week leslie, back to you. >> rick, thank you we are 30 minutes into the trading session. gap slashing its full-year forecast the company hit by higher costs for shipping and by deeper levels of discounting. you can see shares down about 4% right now. although retailer is costco beating on the top and bottom lines, but the margins shrinking due to labor costs and freight we'll end with dell technologies, benefiting from a jump in demand by businesses for desktop and laptop computers that stock currently trading more than 12% higher in today's trade. let's check in on the broader market you can see the dow up about 260 points at this point in time

the s&p and nasdaq trying to break their seven-week losing streaks. joining us is barry bannister, and sherry paul. thank you to both of you barry, let's start with you. this week has been a particular bright spot, after weeks and weeks of, you know, negativity are you a dip buyer at these levels is this a bear market rally that's sustainable >> sure, it's a summer rally i was surprised when the s&p 500 fell below that 4,000 mark i had not expected that. there was sort of an epiphany in the markets in the month of april that things were tightening up. those facts have been evident really since the beginning of the year, and since the war in february yeah, it's a summer rally. i believe the old high, 4800 of january 3rd is very much out of the reach, but it's a summer

rally. we'll be watching for credit and pmi indices, as the summer progresses, that will tell us whether we'll have another dip down toward the late summer, early fall. >> sherry, what's your take, some say that it overestimates the likelihood of at least an imminent recession do you think that's baked in, or do you think there's significant risks? >> yeah. thanks so much for having me two things we've been telling clients, number one, economic predictions not to be confused with investment strategies, and how to move money through a market like this they do tell us, though, the climate we're investing in, and with summer's conflicting data is turbulent the second thing we tell them is how they feel about things is also not to be confused with an investment strategy. it gives us a sense of the emotional psychology, so if there's one thing i think the americans -- many things we're

great at, but one of them is being smart consumers. that doesn't mean we don't have the money in the bank to deploy. the same as corporations, right now there's $10 trillion of cash sitting, but the sentiment hasn't deployed yet. specifically to your question, we have a pull back in the nasdaq and s&p at these proportions, we haven't seen they p.e. ratios in a couple years, we're seeing good dividends. 3.8% unemployment, and now an inflation number that says maybe there's a bit of this that's transitory, then this is a great time, if you haven't started investing, it's a great time to step forward if you have a portfolio, you should be domestic, adjusting and not abandoning goals

markets are forward-thinking, and investors should be as well. >> barry, you wrote a couple days ago that corporate credit could be the potential next shoe to drop. can you talk about what kind of risks you're seeing on credit right now? >> sure, carl. it looks like earnings estimates will come down for the year. one of the things that we're seeing is a margin squeeze into corporations so we watch the ig, investment grade, and high-yield spreads. the risk is toward the late summer, early fall, if those spreads widen again, we would get another sell-off most of the action, as you know, is in treasuries we've been talking about the tips yield for months. that's what pressed down on the

p.e. ratio, particularly for growth that's the treasury protected, or real used in the treasury market the next thing to watch is the corporate side that's something to monitor over the course of the summer, as investment grade and high-yield spreads. >> barry, as for the broader market, you say tit needs a fed pause. any sense we're getting close to that is that something perhaps we see by the end of the year >> that's a great question we'll get two 50s on the rate hikes, and then revert i think to quarter points. i do believe starting on the november 2nd meeting, the fed will be waiting for its december 14th meeting s.e.p., or summary of economic projections. in the sense they're going to be talking about a pause, so you could get particularly in

december a santa claus rally, as the fed pauses roughly as 2.08 effective fed funds. if they do a six-month pause, that's a rally over the course of a winter. if they don't do a pause, and just plow ahead, we'll probably have some trouble in 2023 for the stock market >> so some significant uncertainty on that front. sherry, i know your sectors are health care and real estate, but your pace is 4450 for the end of the year do you think those are sectors investors should be piling into at this point in time, especially as they've done so well they have been pockets that have been popular this year, do you think the gains have been made at this point? these are sectors to preserve wealth or do you think there's actual up side to be made in positions

user portfolio. >> why these are important component parts for diversified portfolios, so i think they would be tact call overweights and underweights and we're advising to be very dynamic in the stock selection and take gains where warranted this is where rebalancing is such a fantastic tool. not just at the asset allocation level, but the sector level. yes, we continue to own those, but you can't ignore the fact that, in particular, if we see an interest rate pause, which is why we're seeing the fed -- the minutes came out and they're already considering changing their words. when that happens, the growth part of the market, which is will be baked in -- as of 30 days ago, i think it was ten rate hikes as the consensus.

all of that is words at this point. the fed has raised rates twice longer-term investors, you shouldn't be ignoring these parts of the market. i would emphasize again that the fed has only raised their words. we have raised rates twice the bottom line when investors need to know is rates are going higher the fed will err on inflation, that's what they planned on doing. we should be investing accordingly. >> information technology the best-performing sector of the day. >> right. >> sherry, thank you very much. a live report from beijing, as a lash out over antony blinken's recent speech. we have the details. we are going to speak with to mass petrby

a costly memorial day weekend for travel, as the national average continues to hi new highs, but not going to keep the roads and planes from beg in packed still, a big show ahead. don't go anywhere.

it's been an underperformer, but the nasdaq, to your point, david, has been focused on a lot because of the volatility we have seen contextually if you take a look at the qqq, the etf tracks the nasdaq 100. it does mirror very closely to the index, but now we're roughly 25% below the record highs, the points here is fairly significant. it's like a 9% gain here over the course of the last week or so, bouncing off the lows of this week. >> there's been a could you key industry groups that were readium performers if you take a look at that technology it has been, also

semiconductors and then 58.5% gains for fintech stocks so watch those three comes from goldman sachs, and analysts of four stocks, with tech or tech related that they think could weather some of the volatility those four names of amazon.com, uber, meta platforms, and alphabet all of those are up on the day so far uber, according to those analysts at goldman sachs could have a 130% up side, if you want to learn more about that story and call, head over to cnbc.com/pro, our pro

subscribers get a deeper look at the coverage of those notes. >> dom, thanks. let's take a deepedive chris, good to see you, happy friday >> happy friday. thanks for having me >> we mentioned earlier, 10% off the may lows on apple. i wonder, is the market accurately processing the dangers of china execution, reports of flat phone production, worries about consumer wallets, all of that? >> the june quarter, it's mostly noise what happened in china it's the in-between quarter ahead of the new iphone launch, so that could be the best time to have that it's valid to have consumer fears for the second half of the year if you have fears about the consumer, that has to mean

something. in addition, because of exchange rates in a lot of geographies, prices will fall, so for those are some of the concerns on the positive side, you know, the last two year, it's been constrained because of some of the phones launched late last year, so there's also some pent-up demand for the iphone as well where we didn't convert because of those reasons and then finally, you know, in terms of consumer exposure, iphones are generally priced in monthly terms, on installment plans, so it's a fairly big-ticket item that's priced over time. so it's going to be a little less volatility with consumers spending you're probably going to be able to afford it. >> i also, i think, in prior eras, we thought a lot about

phone production, still do, but it was more about asps and what it would meme to overall earnings has the my agreeing offer time to services and even some ancillary product silos, made it less of a crucible for the company? >> the short answer is yes, but our view has always been the iphone, just because of its size, iphone has to work and has to be moving in a positive direction in order for apple stock to work. a number of years ago before the cycle started, there was the thesis it was a services company, and the stock didn't start to work until, you know, we were on the cusp. 5g iphones, and iphones started to work again. if iphone goes in the wrong direction, services woman bail

them out. >> we've heard that they're either slowing hiring or laying off workers. apple said it was increasing the starting hourly wage for $22 an hour i'm curious if you see this as a bullish signal that they do have the cash that people are concerned about with other tech companies. obviously apple has a massive cash load, but in terms of deploying it toward its workers and not be in the same position of slowing hiring or laying people out of that you're seeing elsewhere? >> no, i do agree, and not just cash they have, but the cash they generate. there's no question, you know, my conversations with the company that there's any anticipating slowing down spending and gain traction, if you

continue to spin through the cycle, that's about it for them. >> a big week for that company >> to get investors to the semiconductor has 75% of the business, and software has been, you know, kind of out there. most of us like myself that cover broadcom, you know, the good news in this acquisition is by the time vmware is done, it would be half semiconductor/half software, so it would be impossible to ignore the question is, will they get the multiple for that? i think investors still struggle how to value broadcom, because it's a lot of different acquisitions, which most have been pretty successful, but it's hard to figure out how to value

a company like that. i think that's where it struggles on the multiple. >> chris, that's helpful stuff good to see you again. chris caso joining us. thank you. shares of gamestop moving higher again in today's trade. i saw a price up about 7% earlier, up 40%, though, since the start of this week we'll be right back. stay with us

antony blinken's recent remarks, in which he called china the most serious long-term challenge to the international order. eunice yoon is live in beijing and has more. >> reporter: china says it will be a defender of international order, the foreign ministry accused secretary blinken of exaggerating the china threat and the u.s. of teaming to contain china to excuse the world order.

it the china state media today was arguing that the remarks by president biden, when he was out here in asia, that suggested to the u.s. would intervene militarily on taiwan's behalf, from the chinese perspective, removed any ambiguity on how the u.s. would react in the event of a -- and saying it was hypocritical for saying it does not want a new cold war, by creating what china believes are alliances that specifically exclusive china, and state media said the efforts are in vain this comes at the same time when the chinese foreign minister has been touring the south pacific

some of those nations have shown support, others have not --, but that country announced that it's going to sign on, guys >> eunice, we talked a about yesterday about premier li, maybe not toeing the line. does that get discussion there >> reporter: it gets a ton of discussion and this week he held a videoconference with 100,000 cadres around the country, where he was alerting them of the important task to try to find ways to stabilize the economy, and because he was so vocal and concerned about a serious growth

problem, because of all of these lockdowns, that drew a ton of atte atte attention. the early transmission change have been largely start up

we're hearing about how they're opening up subway lines, however, in the course, of course, negative news as well, when it comes to the outbreak. we've been hearing about infections now being reported along the north korean border, the provinces there have been saying that there's been cases of infections of an unknown origin north korea, as you know, has been reporting 3 million cases of fever that they have there, and so this is something that people here are also growing a bit concerned about. >> yeah. those are not things we're not hearing. they sound somewhat familiar in a way, eunice yoon, thank you. don't miss thomas peterffy

there's been no lack of volatility as we go to break, if you want to become a cnbc pro member, point your phone at the qr screens. it takes you there we're back in two. joel, since kansas, we've taken our own path. we've never done what everyone else did. we took on the fear. we ignored the doubt. we loved the excitement. we believed. even when our path didn't make sense to everyone else, we kept going. we keep going. until our path is the one they wished they had taken. ♪♪

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a change of plans for texas governor greg abbott he won't be going to houston for the nra national convention. those attending will get a prerecorded message from him instead as he heads back to the scene of this week's school shooting in uvalde former president trump and senator ted cruz will be speaking at the meeting today. more than 4,000 civilian deaths in ukraine it says most were killing, it acknowledges the

actual -- considerably higher. wile fires are prompting evacuations. as of last night, the fire was zero percent contained we are on track for the first weekly gain, finally, sin march. dow is up for five straight days, going for six, the longest streak in several months joining us is thomas peter ffy. advance of some kind of pivot by the fed, is that what you are expe expecting? >> yes, we have a long list of worries.

you know, at least they are -- the impacts are, because the forecast, as we just heard, chinese cities locked down the china's economy, may underperform, and may shrink the results. it seems that russia will not being get out of ukraine undefeated, and putin cannot september defeat, so the war will go on indefinitely. as it comes due after the debt

sit spending, which in turn will generate inflation, accordingly, on the long term, high interest rates will not be a solution to the interest rate problem. >> that's a dark picture you know, deutsche bank published a poll saying if inflation were to remain elevated, which asset class would you buy and hold if you could only choose one. the number one choice, i think 47%, i think 43, said property developing equities are second do you think they'll remain a decent inflation hedge >> and the inflation, yes. stocks will rise along with inflation, yes

i completely agree around 40% this week, often seen as a barometer, and there was some data that came out showing retail investors bought stocks for 76 billion during a three-month period, and may 24th, which is a high above akin to the 2021 meme stock frenzy. are you seeing a resurgence in retail activity. is that one of the concerns you had earlier, with regard to volatility in the market right now? >> well, yeah many of these stocks are trading on a fairly narrow circle with higher and higher prices, so our old friend gamestop is up about over --

it's been a very hard resist to short that stock, but every time they do, they get beaten up. so people just have the higher prices until, of course, one day they will try to realize and find they cannot leave by the same door at the same time, right? this is not unlike -- and buying and selling the private companies to each other, increasing prices. they have to realize some of those investments from time to time, and they exchanged them. >> we talked last hour just about the kind of recent flows this week. obviously this week was a bright

spoke the one that brought it in is cash at $28 billion what does that tell you about the psyche of investors right now as it looks at the potential to add more risk, versus putting money to work in the safe havens. >> i'm sorry, i have no idea what cash is [ laughter ] >> what is cash? >> oh, cash. i'm sorry. i thought you said hash. right. cash, yes, yes cash is good >> but in terms of asset allocation right now, are you seeing a greater draw to equities than perhaps we have seen over the course of the last few months or do you think investors are still in the mindset of pursuing safe havens like cash, c-a-s-h

>> yell, yes >> i think we expect more and more money to go into, yes, cash and treasuries, and bonds. yes. i think probably many people think it's a safer bet than some of these stocks like gamestop, right? >> i'm curious when we have you on how is the company doing >> well, we are doing very well, but, you know, we have seen -- we began to see the easing up on trading, especially from europe and asia not as much from the united states, but in europe and asia, with the declining markets, trading has been somewhat

subsiding. on the other hand, of course, it's counterbalanced by rising interest rates, which have a favorable impact as far as the growth, we are going to have a relatively flat qua quarter, so we are just going to -- you know, the forecast by analysts are probably correct. >> okay. there have been some crazy pitches in your industry lately, thomas great to have you have a great memorial day weekend as we kick off the summer thanks for being with us. >> thank you. we are head to go a break as well checkous some of the big retail names reporting results, under pressure today big lots is the big laggard

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welcome back it's no surprise gas prices are at a record high domestic airfares are almost 30% above pre-pandemic levels. neither will stop a near-record number of travelers for getting

away for the unofficial start of summer this weekend. phil lebeau, it seems like americans are undeterred. >> that's true a lot of people have said i'm not crazy about the gas prices or paying more to fly somewhere, but i'm getting away that's the number from aaa as far as the predictions as well as the airfares. three million people are expected to be flying on memorial day if you've seen any of the airports so far, if you know anybody who has been traveling, they'll likely be complaining about it we're almost to 2019 levels, not quite there, but almost. what you're looking at is airfares at a five-year high how high domestic tickets almost $400 round trip that's above where they were by a wide margin last year. guess what they'll be going even higher, according to hopper.

look at the prediction there the dotted line is expected to go near $400 be prepared. that is coming your way. by the way, up 72% since january. one reason for the higher airfares a, demand is there b, airlines have to offset the higher cost the jet fuel it's at a near-record high so as a result, the airlines are passing along as much of the cost as possible so far they have been able to offset the higher costs. a number of airlines have raised their guidance, the question is, will they have a smooth summer operationally? delta already asking their pilots if they can pick up an extra shift or two this holiday weekend, and we are also seeing them trim their schedule by 2%, like other airlines, who have

done the same thing, in order to say, can we be in position to make sure we do not have any canceled flight, no operational hiccups that we've seen from time to time over the year because of the tight staffing. one last thing, if you look at the airline index, we heard from a number of airlines this week who already raised that i guidance for revenue we'll hear a few more next week. the bottom line is this, david, the airline stocks are not doing anything right now for the airlines, they're going to try to make as much hay as possible they will be profitable, but how much depends on what happens with jet fuel prices. >> phil, thank you. we move from airlines to automobiles as well. taking a look at rising gas prices, joining us arco chairman

and ceo ari cutler arco supplies fuel to retail and wholesale sites. what are you seeing out there in terms of prices, and in terms of any expectation of demand destruction as a result of those prices. >> yes, good morning so what we say, you know, we see an increase in demand. i think it's back to pre-covid, pre2019. i mean, prices today are at the highest level i remember, $4.59, this is the average price across the country. if you compare it to the same time last year, we're talking about $3.04. this is $1.55 increase since last year. we see the consumers are driving more, but they're coming to our

stores more often, so, you know, if you're looking at 2020 pre-pandemic, we're talking about 11 gallons, you know, and today we are -- this is creating a lot of challenges to many of our consumers. we're trying to be creative. we are very, very competent competitive, given we have over 3,000 stores across 33 states, we are being ultr ultra, ultracompetitive we make sure we tie the product to their fuel consumption. >> yeah. you mentioned the convenience stores themselves. i did notice sales were down 3.5% versus a year ago when they

were up six. are you seeing people spend less in the stores since they're spending more at the pump. >> in fact, people spend more in the stores they're coming less often between the pump and the store, but you mentioned the 3.5% as a matter of fact, our inside same-store sales are up 9.3% if you exclude cigarettes so people are buying other valuable product we make sure we have the right product in space it's all about volume right now. you need to be creative, in order to utilize promotion you need to work with your suppliers. i can tell you that, you noknow we just moved to automation. we just finished the product we entered into the iced coffee business, installing in 2500

stores, and our loyal customers can buy it for 99 cents. the reason i bring that up, there's no question there's labor challenges in almost every retail space, and we need to figure out how to be creative, more efficient, efficient in order to provide great prices to our customers. >> and you mentioned labor, as well as one of the key concerns there. how are you attracting and retaining employees and what do yousee on that picture >> sure, sure. so you know, we are no different than any other retailer. everybody has the same challenge. but going back to being creative we are the sixth largest convenience store operator in the country. we have to be creative and make sure that we retain our employees and as a matter of fact, just this coming sunday, what we decided to do, given, you know, the increase in fuel prices, what we have decided to do, that every employee will work for us, any associate work, you know, between our locations,

will get $500 during the summer for working 500 hours. again, it's an extra $500, and you know, that's going to help them, you know, to go to the summer and those are the things that you have to do you know, to keep retention. >> yeah. >> ari, appreciate the update. thank you. >> thank you >> coming up next hour on "tech check," don't miss our exclusive with snowflake's frank lugman, breaking down the company's last quarter. and down more than 60% year-to-date that's coming up around 11:30 a.m. eastern time. dow's up 240 don't go away. but walmart's got your back with thousands of rollbacks so you get everything you need to keep your summer rollin'. because when you save money, you can live better.

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with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want —your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip network. from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities.™ check out the biggest gainers on the dow for the week. you can see jpmorgan shares have had a very nice run-up, about 11%. the bulk of that made on monday, with its shareholder meeting the first since pre-pandemic, where they raised guidance for net interest income. very kind of bullish environment surrounding bank stocks in general. american express also up about 9% boeing up 9%, as well. we'll be right back. stay with us

boitcoin prices have seen some wild springs during holiday weekends our kate rooney is tracking the crypto markets and has more ahead of this memorial day holiday weekend. kate >> hey, leslie crypto will be one of the few asset classes trading on monday, while u.s. markets are closed for memorial day, analysts are expecting some big price swings. it's mainly because of a lack of liquidity, meaning there's fewer people out there to trade and that are trading, so just a handful of some of the larger trades call trigger outsized spikes in either direction, not just on the downside fund strap pulled some of the data on this, and they say in recent years, they found crypto trading volumes have fallen off a cliff on major u.s. holidays july 4th tends to find the biggest declines, fold by martin luther king day, you can see that on that chart there and memorial day and labor day are pretty much tied and new year's day is really the one big outlier. there tends to be actually more trading on january 1st and the average change compared

to the 30-day moving average and it underlines, guys, how widely adopted bitcoin is in the u.s. fund strap found that bitcoin tends to perform better than u.s. trading hours that wasn't really the case four years ago, when the asset class was much bigger in asia. another factor that could add to the volatility on monday, there's record leverage in crypto right now, that's measured by what they call the bitcoin leverage ratio that's been climbing since february it's now at an all-time high and if bitcoin were to move sharply in either direction, it could catch some of those leveraged investors offsides and as fund strap puts it, compound a move in either direction. on top of all of that, bitcoin is still very much tied to the macro outlook, which is looking pretty tough for some of the riskier outlooks, with the fed raising rates as well. bitcoin right now is struggling to avoid its ninth straight week of declines. it's been trading pretty much sideways for most of the week, around $29,000 david, back to you >> kate, thank you later tonight, by the way, don't miss a cnbc special program.

crypto night in america. hosted by our own frank holland. it's not football night, it's crypto night, 6:00 p.m. eastern. all right. that's going to do it for us on "squawk on the street. have a great long weekend, everybody. we'll see you back here on tuesday. tech check starts now. good friday morning. welcome to "tech check." i'm carl quintanilla with jon fortt. deirdre's off today. a big show this morning. the key question, what is the state of demand in the economy is i.t. spending slowing, doing just fine? we've got three enterprise software ceos to give us some guidance snowflake, "z" scaler and auto desk two additional adapt points on the optimistic side, good earnings from dell and marvel today. those stocks are rallying. and on the research front, is it safe to buy now? ubs says, yes, investors can start increasing exposure as the nasdaq looks to break a seven-day losing streak, but not everyone agrees. citi is still cautious they reiterate, underw