he says his outlook has got even more dire since last week. sheryl sandberg leaving meta what comes next for the company as it transitions to the metaverse without the long time lieutenant and it is a big day for the gas bill the key opec meeting we will tell you what to expect. it is thursday, june 2nd "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcom wel welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc from nasdaq market site in times square i'm here with brian sullivan and mike santoli

the week is still young. are you talking about thursday and we are seeing green arrows dow futures indicated up by 101. s&p futures up 15. nasdaq up by 73. let's look at the treasury market treasury yields picking up the 10-year yield is up 2.19%. 30-year is at 3.061% mike >> that raises the question if good news is bad news again. jpmorgan chase ceo jamie dimon is preparing the biggest bank for an economic hurricane he advised investors to do the same dimon changed from storm clouds to a hurricane he said conditions seem fine at the moment, but nobody knows if the hurricane is a minor one or super storm sandy. he said jpmorgan chase is bracing ourselves and we will be

conservative with our balance sheet. you know, my immediate reaction is this is very on brand for jamie and how he positioned the bank he referred to the fortress balance sheet before the global financial crisis in a sense, their customers are doing fine credit is good consumers are spending obviously, he mentioned things specifically oil at 150 to 175 with the war a factor and the quantitative tightening with the fed shrinking the balance sheet. we are in risk mitigation mode that's how they operate. >> that's what you expect from him. perfect risk management. seeing the storm clouds. we were just talking about it. almost the berkshire hathaway of the banking system. >> it sounds like, mike, he wants to scare you a little bit. >> i don't know he wants to

scare anybody specifically he wants to explain in part why jpmorgan chase right now is focused not on reaching for risky returns and putting capital in the way of the economy where they don't know where it will go he is explaining we will be more careful with our own capital this is how we're assuming plan for the worst and hope for the best >> one of the things that caught my ear and it is playing out a little bit in a sideways way this morning he said wars have a way of cac taking unintended turns in ways you don't expect if you go to cnbc.com, the headline is moscow calls u.s. missile sale to ukraine direct provocation. we have to remember that moscow is looking at our aid to ukraine as a direct entry into certain things that's the headline. that is what jamie was getting

at, becky. we don't have any idea how that will turn out. >> that and the eu saying we are cutting off shipments. not cut off the pipeline there is with natural gas. they don't get to control what moscow's reaction is to anything >> especially as reports came out, putin is, maybe not -- maybe not all there? you don't know the reaction. if they block food shipments or phosphorus dimon was saying we need to look out. let's hope that doesn't happen there is also, by the way, a russian credit default swa $1.9 million if you bought at 3 cents a couple of years ago, you got a big payout when is last time we talked

about credit swap defaults >> 2008. >> yeah. there are weird things happening under the hood >> he would rather stress test his bank himself rather than subject it to conditions out there in the regulators. >> people are saying what is right? are things great or are these clouds building? the answer is both the answer is things are great right now. he said the same thing this is just telling of what can come down the road. >> it is why the hurricane metaphor works sometimes they are unexpectedly destructive and sometimes you brace for them and they don't really strike. >> and you yell at the weather person becky, you are right people are fromustrated by this you have to think in two timeframes now and in the future. >> not just chess. it is 3d chess

another story this morning sheryl sandberg is stepping down from the role as chief operating officer from meta. the position she held since joining in 2008 as mark zuckerberg's number two and resident adult in the room together, they turned the social media company into the advertising giant. one point, the company was worth north of $1 trillion the current chief growth officer javier olivan will take over sandberg's role in the fall. she will stay on the board she wants to step away or is this a sign of mark? >> there have been rumors out for a couple of years of tension that may or may not have built up between the two she was brought in as a washington insider to help navigate and build the company she did build the company. there is more pressure from washington i don't know anybody could have side stepped that given the reach of the social network and

i involvement from washington and the need for facebook or meta to side step the direct attention and negative implications that come from that she will still be on the board she is not leaving entirely. >> it is a long run to be a top two of the company that size and complexity she was responsible for monetizing the business which has been a huge success. obviously hiccups lately it is a tough moment for the industry and company >> she is staying on the board she is moving away, but not entirely that is important for continuity >> you wonder if there is more going on guys, bring up a five-year chart of facebook. if you bought the stock years ago and held it, facebook stock -- today, in 2018, it was

$190 stock today, it is $190 stock. you are looking at four years of returns wiped out. you wonder if the employees sitting on options and under water and saying going to market and fix it >> the story is the rumors that come up and maybe people were frustrated and off doing the lead-in stuff instead of fixing the company. the relationship with the two has been strong. there will always be tensions coming up. is she being forced out? i would be shocked if she is staying on the board >> i would be surprised if she is forced out. there is a time to rethink how you are structured >> becky and i were talking yesterday, mike. i'm sure you watch all three

hours of "squoawk box" every day nobody is asking if you are supporting the fed there are nuance languages and mark zuckerberg saying she is awesome and amazing. then there was a but but we need to move on >> to the point about the stock. it has all been payback. up 600% the last ten years so that shows you when it seems like you have built up too much excess return and the market will take that back. coming up, bitcoin losing a third of the value in the last three months we will talk about the future of the cryptocurrency next with the ceo of binance we will go live to london for the queen's platinum jubilee marking 70 years on the throne. you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist securities

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the lightning and thunder last night? >> yeah. >> that's why i look like this the house shaking. >> it was a good storm >> it was. not a lot of sleep in there, mike a lot of makeup this morning. >> i barely knew it happened pre-war apartment building. >> that's how you roll iceman all right. check this out you can pay for your burritos with bitcoin why would you want to? i don't know chipotle and payment network flexa will accept digital currency at 3,000 locations. flexa supports 100 cryptocurrency including bitcoin and ethereum why? >> if you are a believer in crypto and it is a great investment, why use it to buy a burrito? why sell the stock >> the pizza guy in 2010.

he bought two pizzas with bitcoin and now worth $100,000. >>stupid. >> you will spend it on pr we just did. >> there is a case for big ticket stuff you want to buy a painting or house where it holds value you have accumulated wealth. >> a burrito will not hold its value. >> you had the wrong burritos. some stay with you for days, becky. let's move on to the broader cryptocurrency story bitcoin and ethereum all down off the highs. binance labs announced a fund to support new technologies associated with crypto joining us now is the binance ceo. let's talk about this moment

a lot of excitement and investment with crypto and the promise was web 3.0 and blockchain it seemed to get overshadowed by the energy behind the price speculation and people wanting it as an investment. with the price down year over year basis and way off the highs, it seems we have a test of what's real and what is speculation. where is most of your energy focused in that new world? >> thanks for having me here this is normal market fluctuation. internet stocks are down i think this is normal i still do the same things we work with regulators to push regulations across the world we use new cases the bitcoin stocks go through

the four year markets based on historic data. each time it is higher than before not guaranteeing that is happening in the future. it happened in the past. no more fluctuation. nothing changes for us. >> i understand that markets are going to fluctuate and this is not unusual over what happened here the pace of the gains were so great and such a rush of adoption from the investment side that i wonder right now if a lot of people are a little bit caught short in terms of their expectation for bitcoin. to get to my point when the talk was about adoption for the past couple years, you ask for specifics and mostly about institutions wanting to allocate capital to crypto as opposed to technology solutions or anything else maybe in the way of payment. what do you think is the state of development right now along those fronts >> i think the institutions come

in whether they want exposure to the price volatility of cryptocurrency investments, et cetera in terms of the apps, we have seen nfts which is a killer app for artists to monetize their work globally. artists get good value for their work i was talking to an artist in asia he normally can sell for $10,000. now with an nft, he is get $100,000 blockchain fund raising. when ukraine wanted donations, they asked for it in crypto. some are $10 $50. you cannot do that with international transfers. all of the use cases cannot be done in traditional finance. there is a lot of people trading on the volatility of crypto.

that is the same as stock markets that some people trade and build. we see both. >> defi in particular, you say you cannot do that with traditional finance. some argue it is because it really does just create things like investment yield out of the returns created by speculators and futures trading. to what degree do you think that is going to continue to thrive in a world where there is a little more regulatory scrutiny? >> defi model works because it is actually trading fees or revenues that goes to the guys who lend crypto to provide liquidity. that is a closed model everything runs more contract on the blockchain no humans involved that model works well. we have seen that growth

if you fluctuate with the market, all things drop a little bit. how this will be regulated, which is the second part of the question, is really tricky it will be really interesting because technically speaking, anybody can deploy a smart contract which is a couple of lines of code. people can do that from america, europe, asia and even russia, potentially. how to regulate it is tricky. >> it is brian sullivan. i believe and correct me if i'm wrong, you are the richest crypto billionaire in the world or know. your company has grown fast. you have binance labs. to talk about the ease of code how much are you spending on cybersecurity? one thing we have seen is it is easy to code, but it may be easy to hack. >> that i agree completely 100%

we are spending hundreds of millions of dollars on security. probably more in the billions now. that is one of the largest spendings for sure also, crypto exchanges are one of the most targeted by hackers around the world binance, we are the most targeted because we are the largest. we do spend a lot. it is very fundamental without security, there is nothing else that is the most important pillar we need to invest in. >> one of the pig evident questions is is crypto a currency or investment i would never spend part of my stock to buy pizza or burrito. would you use bitcoin or other cryptocurrency to buy burrito? >> i do. i often do use to buy things

i don't sell to u.s. dollars and buy stuff. there are two concepts here. there's the mentality of buckets of money i can use the bucket to store investments. that's my investment i don't spend that that's fine. if i spend it, i replenish it. i can replenish that with cash i would spend anyway it is all the same bucket of money. >> it's not. if you think crypto is going up from here, you would never spend it if i think it is worth more a year from now or a month from now even or ten years from now, why use something that is more valuable than a dollar >> that's assuming you have dollars. i don't have dollars everything is in crypto. when i need to spend money, i need to spend somewhere. i'm holding crypto when you spend crypto, you don't

need to think about selling crypto crypto is my money >> you are a rare person walking around with no cash. just crypto. most people are using cash to buy crypto it is weird to look at it as a currency and investment when if you are a true believer and it is going higher, it is not making sense i get in your case you have no dollars. you have to convert something or spend something to do that of the system >> you can keep a portion of the spending money in crypto so you can pay for things remote across the world which is cheaper in crypto buy a burrito. i'm a small percentage of people there are a number of us i know quite a lot of friends who do this. it is a balance.

>> thank you very much we will check in with you soon. >> thank you so much for having me. a day of celebration as queen elizabeth ii is the first british royal reigning for 70 years. we have cnbc's tania bryer tania, a big party today how is it going so far >> reporter: becky, good morning from london. it's going fantastically well so far. right behind me, of course, you see buckingham palace. you can hear the noise and music. what is happening right now is the trooping of the colour all of the royal family are watching as prince charles inspects the guards behind me. after that, they come back to buckingham palace where her majesty will be standing on the balcony with the working members of the royal family which means

not prince andrew or prince harry or meghan. after the balcony, what will happen is a fly past, a special fly past it will be six months of 70 aircraft from the royal air force from navy and red arrows for her majesty. she, of course, is 96 years young and celebrating 70 years of reigning here in the united kingdom. >> tania, we are watching and celebrating. we wish you well party on >> reporter: thank you very much. >> we were talking 70 years reign incredible you think of the life expectancy of a royal nobody has done this before. >> living to 70 was a feat 100

years ago. axes or guillotines. whatever it was. >> you wore person the >> purple >> by accident i'll take it when becomwe come back, the stocks to watch. the biggest moves ahead. and the latest energy prices wti off 2.5% ahead of the meeting. helima croft will join us to qull us what to expect "sawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: "squawk coin" is sponsored by bitwise the world's leader in crypto index funds. what if you were a gigantic snack food maker?

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a few stocks to watch. chewy shares are rising after the first quarter profit sales rising nearly 14% as march d margins fell the second quarter revenue is above estimates and sticking with the target for the full year despite the gains, the stock is 5% lower since the start of may and well off the record highs. hp shares are falling. the company reported second quarter profit flat from a year ago. doubts over business tech hardware spending. margins held up despite inflation and ongoing supply chain. and shares of pure storage revenue jumping 50% as cloud based storage continues to grow.

logistics are very hard, but navigating the rough waters. in some cases, redesigning circuit boards to address s shortages. gamestop with a loss of $2.08 a share. earnings number was not comparable to estimates. revenue rose to $1.3 billion the company plans to launch an nft marketplace by the end of the quarter. it did not provide financial guidance and did not take analyst questions on the conference call last night mike, if you are gamestop or favorite or meme or an ape, you have to take questions it leaves too much to doubt. >> gamestop shares have not held well with fundamentals when they have the earnings report, it is a big mover of the stock or not a positive one.

it distracts from the big picture story of transformation. we have a lot of stores and we have to close down stores and selling used consoles and games. dp >> it is funny the antithisis of the jamie dimon thing. >> it is mall traffic. >> the issue has been with gamestop is the blockbuster story. you can download the games and you can go online and you don't need to go into the store to do it they are focusing on the geek squad at best buy or other places where they offer more services that is an uphill battle swimming up stream, i guess. >> you know what would be cool a side note.

go back in time and realize the last video we rented from blockbuster without realizing it was the last >> i think it may not have been a blockbuster rental, but netflix in the mail. >> can you still do that some guys were in the bluray what was the last video? vhs? >> i would rather go back in time and find out what the right stocks to buy would be back to the future >> or create lougle. i ruined the movie >> the mall traffic being back a ryear before the pandemic, th gamestop stock was $10 a stock now here it is at $120 somewhere between it became

about something other than the fundamentals. more on the executive shuffle at meta. should investors be worried about sheryl sandberg leaving? we will get into the debate in the 7:00 hour. as we head to break, the s&p winners and losers salesforce did well. baker hughes and hp and hess markets did fall futures are higher right now lithium. albemarle. moody's and mosaic we're back after this. find a new way. but birthdays still happen. fridays still call for s'mores. you have to make magic, and you're figuring out how to do that. what you don't have to figure out is where to shop. because while you're getting creative, walmart is doing what we always do.

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welcome back to "squawk box. let's look at futures this morning. a weird read on the s&p. get over dow futures up 105 points. nasdaq up 72 s&p indicate the up 16 maybe we'll get traction this week so far it has been a down week for the markets. let's talk about markets with kevin simpson and krisna

let's talk about the japmie dim, dimon comments >> nothing has changed on that front. if you look at the -- if you ask yourself one thing the fed is looking for in the market with the tightening path, it is some s softening of the labor market. there hasn't been any. two jobs available for everyone looking for a job. that is not the market that is what he is saying. fed is on a pretty established tightening path. it will not stop any time soon. >> kevin, add to that the idea that odds of recession are growing and probably day by day

watching what is happening with that and oil prices. whether or not the fed will be successful and slowing inflation at this point. what do you do when you look around and try to assess what you do in the market >> a hard question, becky. i can make a case we're already in a recession i think you can't manage a baseball game on analytics alone. you have to feel the ebb and flow of the game you have to really focus and read the tape. when we talk about the recession we're in, in my opinion, it is the eyeball test we're looking at things -- gas gasoline, oil and energy prices. everything is so high. i think jamie dimon is reading the tape i agree with krishna it is all about interest rates and how to navigate this >> if we are in a recession at this point, and that is debatable at this point, if we are, you have people say you are

in a recession, but not a h hardcore recession maybe this is quick and we move on from here is that the flavor or are you b battening down the hatches >> i'm not battening down the hatches. we are not talking about our great grandparents recession recessions are not that serious if they are minor. two quarters of decreasing gdp was the old school definition. it is different now. it will be told after the fact a minor recession is something we should look forward to invest into and get opportunities to get through. companies that return cas cash-to-cash to shareholder, they can still make money and share prices can go higher i think it is about how we invest in the market, not how we

trade. >> krishna, what does the jobs report tell you about the jobs market and what the fed might be considering? >> every sign in the job market so far is still running high i think if the fed's objective is to soften the labor market, it has a lot of work to do and that may be a counter point to what kevin was saying which is we are in a recession this doesn't taste or smell anything like a recession. we may eventually have it, but it is not today. the fed will continue to tighten. the other point that kevin was making was extraordinarily good one which is we are probably going to get a shallow recession. it will be a great opportunity to buy some really good companies. maybe not today because the

markets rallied back perhaps late in summer or early fall or end of the year. >> kevin, since krishna cry critiqued your points, what is your case? >> you cannot without high unemployment you keep away from stagflation and recession may be further off. i think preparing for them before is a better way to think ab about it what are prices doing and how do people feel? it feels like a recession. if people are fighting for jobs or employers are fighting for employees, it just feels like it to me. better to prepare early than late when you are talking about investing. >> it is tough to know how to prepare. and krishna likes the high tech

companies. gentlemen, we will have you both back thank you for your time. >> thanks, becky coming up, student loan debt relief is coming for former students of certain schools. that story is next. later, we talk to peter krauss for his take on the markets and the state of the economy. s&p futures are up .50%. we'll be right back. >> announcer: currency check is sponsored by interactive brokers. the professionals gateway to the world's markets.

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the biden administration plans to cancel all outstanding student loans for those who attended schools operated by corinthian colleges. the schools have been accused of predatory and unlawful practices and filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2015 around 560,000 borrows will benefit. officials said former students who still have a loan balance should be refunded for previous payments made on the debt. relief should be automatic borrowers will not have to navigate paper work. this is where debt forgiveness

makes sense. >> a fraud >> it was. >> the school was a fraud. a lot of taxpayers will be on the hook for it. who is making student loans? maybe the federal government can do a better job looking into the for-profit colleges and saying what the heck are you offering >> the business model for those was just essentially being the conduit for federal loan money for students and not converting it to degreedegrees. >> and not worrying if the students graduate. >> listen, how about this? pull a "21jump street. >> is that a johnny depp reference? >> he is he is in the news for other reasons, by the way. find somebody. if you think the school is sketchy, have a government agent enroll in the school. >> undercover. >> check it out. am i learning? is there real work do i have job prospects? >> this goes back to the conversation with mitch daniels

this week or last week president of purdue university he says schools should be on the hook for this, too if you are pushing students through and not getting degrees or jobs afterwards, that's a bad situation. it should be alerted you should not have the same access to the federal loans or programs purdue university, he capped tuition and fees from 2011 to 2012 levels. the school has maintained doing that 60% of students graduate without any debt and 95% of students get jobs after graduation. >> you have a soft spot for indiana? >> my parents went to purdue i went to valpo. that is the midwestern way of looking at it. if you agree or not, that is how you make sure colleges have skin in the games >> and 40% is for-profit

colleges the colleges profiting, not the students >> colleges in air quotes. >> exactly coming up, crude oil prices are down a couple of bucks this morning. you have abig opec plus meetin coming up. helima croft knows more about what is going on than anybody else she'll join us stick around >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers

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all right, get ready oil.ould, could be a big day for opec and opec plus members meeting today, virtually, after stories that they could spin russia from their quota output plan or break up opec. continue with their current plan but it is opec, and you never know, all right, you never know but someone who does know, salima croft cnbc contributor and somebody who put out three separate notes yesterday on opec. i imagine, halima, you're dialed in you may have been texting some people we have in common i don't think they're going to do anything today as far as booting russia out, what is your take >> it is a very fluid situation, but i do not think russia is going to be booted out of opec

but the key question is, are we going to see more output than the 432,000 which is originally planned. i to do think the direction of travel is toward more production coming i think it's coming on the heels of a really intense diplomatic effort on the part of the united states to get saudi arabia to put more on the market but more on the u.s./sadudi relations. i do think the question is how much is left in the tank in terms of what does opec have to deal with this situation >> geopolitical stuff i know, and you know that people like a special envoy to the white house, they've been visiting nations, setting the ground wor for a president biden visit. what time is it, 6:54?

i know it's early. here's where the market may have gotten the initial story wrong correct me please, halima. the saudis, and/or uae may pump more but if they don't raise output by a million, we're still at a net lower number than pre-sanction so when you say pump more, would that mean more than before or just making up the gap? >> you said a million barrels. if you think about the eu move, if you take not just the seaborne ban, but where' pote we're potentially talking about 2 million barrels. t and it would make it more difficult for india to absorb

those barrels. in a 2-million-barrel gap situation, opec is going to have a hard time making up for that and we still do not know if russia's going to respond by withholding supplies this summer to try to drive up prices further. i think there's a lot of burden being placed on opec's shoulders, and i'm not sure they have enough barrels to deal with in terms of this russia loss >> but could it be a political win for the kingdom to say today we are either going to raise output by x, or we will be on, the possibility we will raise output, even under our current agreement, we may sort of not bak break it is the right word but may come to the rescue of the global oil markets it's an oil branch in some way to the biden administration. it makes up the gap. and what do you think, that the

saudis want $175 a barrel oil. >> no, i do not think they want $175 a barrel oil. i think making modifications to the schedule keeps saudi arabia in the role of the central banker of oil. i also think the fact that president biden looks like he's going to be visiting saudi arabia, having that meeting with crown prince in riyadh, i think that is a big win for the kingdom but a win for the u.s. negotiating team that has made multiple trips to saudi arabia to try to get this reset done. >> that meeting happens, if that meeting happens, halima, does that set the door for more saudi production, give them the clearance they want? >> again, brian, fien opec and saudi arabia, the ones sitting on all those spare barrels, the key question is how much are we going to lose from russia, and with refinery capacity so

constrained, is it going to move the needle in terms of gasoline prices at home >> 8:30 ieastern for a press conference maybe i'll see you ton from right here when we come back, new data on how american rkwoers feel about the economy, inflation and their job, steve liesman has those numbers straight ahead what if you were a global bank who wanted to supercharge your audit system? so you tap ibm to un-silo your data. and start crunching a year's worth of transactions against thousands of compliance controls with the help of ai. now you're making smarter decisions faster. operating costs are lower. and everyone from your auditors to your bankers feels like a million bucks. let's create smarter ways of putting your data to work. ibm. let's create new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed.

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all right, good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" or well come to "squawk box" live from the market site in times square, i am brian sullivan. joe and andrew are off civil several pieces of key information are going to be out. we're going to get the weekly initial jobless claims numbers

as well as a revised look at first quarter productivity those are all going to be out at 8:30 a.m. eastern time meantime, pfizer and biontech are seeking approval after third dose regimen of the covid vaccine for kids under the age of 5 and as we just talked about, the price of crude oil is down a couple bucks ahead of this morning's opec plus meeting. as we just talked about, we'll see if this ey suggest they wild something. >> people are anticipating this, because they're already baked in >> if the saudis come in and add incremental barrels. there was a story in the journal yesterday that was really good the russians are finding plenty of buyers for their oichltl.

they sell it to india. they're refining it, putting it on a third party ship, transferring it to another ship and transferring it in some cases to the united states they're selling menplenty of russian oil around the world, thank you, india >> it's just repurposing >> ship-to-ship. they turn off the transponders russian oil came into new york harbor may 22nd. >> what are you watching today >> let's start with the change that has everybody buzzing meta platform using its chief operating officer, sheryl sandberg leaving after 14 years

on the job and made her a billionaire. especially during the 2012 ipo, was seen as one of the reassuring people for investors. the share up just about a percent in the premarket trade we'll stick with social media. a couple competitors on the move this morning shares of snap, the parent company of sennapchat and pinterest down by about 1.5% companies dependent on advertising will not be great candidates for a stock rebound a as of yet. pinterest goes down, it's kind of a mea culpa they've lost a lot of their value. if you want more on the story,

cnbc pro subscribers can read more and we're going to end on shares of general motors. gm's cutting the price of its bolt electric vehicles to a starting price of just under $26,600. it's cutting the larger bolt it makes chevy the least-exp least-expensive electric vehicle currently being sold in the united states of america a sharp move lower in just a year-to-date period. general motors one to watch, becky. >> yeah, one to watch pretty closely. >> i just wonder what demand is like, think. commodity, dom said, commodity costs are up battery cost are up. is that just like a super gift from gm? or is that saying we need incentives to sell the car

>> big market share play all these other manufacturers, the illusion of the sub $40,000 tesla never really -- >> we'll see you a little later. the state of the nation's labor market in focus this week. and right now we have the exclusive result of the cnbc america workforce survey steve liesman joins us with some of the key findings. >> new cnbc all america workforce survey finds american workers generally comfortable and satisfied with their job, pay and recent raises despite high inflation, yet they harbor pretty deep concerns about the financial state of the nation and their own situation. 400 people not in the workforce but yet not retired. and another 450 people who r retired during the pandemic in an effort to understand change

brought on by the pandemic here's some of the results among the employed, 69% are satisfied with their current wages. 80% are satisfied with recent raises while 20% are not one in five of your employees out there is having a little difficulty 40% of those who got raises say their salary went up by 5% or more in the past year. those raises keeping people in place could leading to some stability in the job market. those actively seeking jobs, just 18%, 82% say they're not actively seeking one, though some said if one came along they'd take it even though 61% said they could find a similar job easily at another company if they were out there looking. 39% said not but that job satisfaction doesn't carry over into the economy, where there are high levels of concern. take a hlook here. the economy, 49% saying the

economy had get worse. 54% of those not working said so and 60% of those who retired dour during the pandemic are not optimistic about the economy 84% are worried about a recession. 74% saying i'm worried about my wages not keeping pace with inflation. 44% are worried. if there is some stability in the workforce. that could be good news for inflation eventually at 10:00 a.m., we'll be talking about the large percentage of americans who switched jobs and companies during the pandemic in what we call the great reshuffle. next week we'll show data on the critical question on whether those who've left the workforce will be coming back. and we have adp at 8:15 >> that survey really does capture, i guess, the state of

what the fed is looking at here, right, with a very tight labor market, perceptions that there's plentiful jobs out there, wage growth is okay so that's not the concern. people are gloom y almost exclusively because of what's happening with inflation >> with inflation, i think there's still pandemic concern out there. that is the key right there. 83% concerned about inflation, but 80% happy with their raises. it's an interesting dichotomy and contradiction. we've seen other surveys when we say how are you doing, they say financially okay then we say how's the nation doing, and they say badly. what i about this in terms of the outlook is perhaps we're getting close in terms of we've reached the right level of wages and the right level of raises so there's stability in the workforce and not this ever increasing percentage of wage

raises that could cause inflation. >> how does working from home play into this because if your raises aren't keeping pace with inflation, but you're happy that you're not driving to work and paying for gas, i would think that would be a huge sweetener if they're giving out a lot of other things >> that's a great question and can you just break out the violins for a second this is a 31-page survey one just said, it's so weird i just read this this is from a woman, aged 35-54, 44. she's a college graduate, a strong gop person. she's not hispanic she's white, works full time in ohio says i love the fact i can work from home. i'm an introvert doi my best work from home

i have a ton of comments like that we're going to do a whole workup next week on work from home. that's one aspect of it. i have one stat i can give you, which is about 40% of the people say they want to work more from home 19% say they want to work less, and 40% say they're working about the right amount from home i'll give you one more stat, which is that there's an increase of 10 percentage point of those who say they are now working from home compared to the pandemic i'm reading through these comments, becky. people like working from home, and it's part of their job satisfaction and maybe you're right, maybe that offsets wages keeping pace with inflation >> it would be the thing keeping from you looking for another job, you have a good thing going on you know the people, maybe they let you do it. i would think that's a huge part of job retention right now and as brian pointed out yesterday, you don't have to

fill your gas tank as frequently, so you're not feeling the pinch that you might be feeling otherwise >> we hear from employers that that's part of the benefits people are asking for. and another thing i'm going to tell you next week but you have to wait for it is pay is important when it comes to jobs, but it's not the only thing that's important. there's flexibility, hours we have so much data here, i can't wait to roll it all out. >> people you work with, that's a big deal, too. >> that's another thing i come up with, people working from home to miss the people they work with. >> we miss you although we get to see you've day anyway steve, thank you ed ed you'd have the answer to all these questions. >> there's no substitute for this take my hand, santoli. >> not allowed >> you could coming up, is big tech back? a number of names bouncing off

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tech stocks had a volatile may, but they have largely recovered. meta also up, although it fell slightly on yesterday's news that sheryl sandberg would leave the company, at least step down as ceo now joining us, allan patricof great to catch up with you you know, this whole landscape shift that we've seen across tech with public values really coming in pretty hard over the last year, year and a half and then filtering in to what's going on in the private market you're hearing about retrenchment mode.

layoffs, people watching spending does that ring true to you, looking at the companies you're looking at >> surely in the last month everybody's had a moment of all of a sudden facing the fact that a lot of companies in the last year or two had some extraordinary valuation multiples that is. and companies who were really didn't have earnings to justify it and it's happened so many times before, i mean, i don't want to recount all the cycles i've been through where exactly the same thing happened, and all of a sudden it's waking up one day and saying the emperor doesn't have any clothes on, how am i going to get the next round of financing, so what happens is this retrenchment, and i focus, a very quick focus, on where they're going to get the next round of financing and how to make sure all the companies in the portfolio have sufficient cash to get through, it was 12

or 18 months, now everyone's talking about 24 or 30 months. so i think there's been a sobering impact in the private market reflecting what's happening in the public market the ipo market slowing down, sis not the gate closing everyone has to react on their own. >> you talk about all the cycles you've seen, and it obviously feels familiar, but maybe one thing that's somewhat different this time around is that you've had tech companies that were, you know, top five, top ten market cap companies in the world that 12 years ago were startups, like a meta. that's been extraordinary the way you've seen these huge markets really exploited in that way. and now you have almost an early middle age for some of those companies. and now we talk about sheryl sandberg moving on

the long-time coo of facebook. does that play into what you see as opportunities here, if a giant like that is also in the mode of tightening its belt and looking for its next move, what does that mean for companies >> it's inexorable that companies as they get bigger, the challenge to increasing double digit percentages becomes more and more difficult. and whereas a lot of these companies were, even in their very early times not that long ago of quarterly changes and annual changes in growth rates where 20, 30, 40% growth in a quarter in a year. i think you're now at a point where you're seeing the changes in growth and revenues down, still double digits, but pretty close to single digits

i mean, 6%, 7%, 8%, but you're not seeing extraordinary increases. and at some point people realize they're becoming similar to the ibms of the world. they're part of the establishment. and i think that, of the companies you mentioned, i think that's the case. they're, they have fluctuations, earnings up and down their revenues, growth has slowed, and in the meantime, their te ratios for some of them are fairly significant a company like amazon for example whose pe ratio, i think, is still very, very high >> hey, allan, it's brian sullivan great to chat with you again as a gentleman of a certain age. >> don't pick on me, brian >> no way! not at all, allan. i love what you're doing in prime time, because you're investing in a lot of companies that deal with tech solutions

for those who are getting older. aging, well-being, mental, physical health, so much attention on startups in the market is always focussed on the younger, the younger, the younger. are there any companies that you admire in the public markets that are doing it right across all age spectrums? >> well, you know, that's an interesting question i haven't focussed on. i've focussed mainly on the private companies in that area there aren't that many public companies that are focussed specifically in the area we're thinking about i think that's yet to come because this is a relatively new area of investment, which is why i went into it it's the fastest growing part of the population there are going to be more people over the age of 60 by 2030 than there will be under 18 it's not the millennials who are growing, it's the older age group who have more money to

spend. and despite what we read about in population changes, i mean, they're here to stay they're going to be here for the next so many years, and you look at the statistics of how many people will be over 100 in the next ten year is, it's pretty extraordinary. now in answer to your question, i think a lot of companies, i can think of two, of p&g and uni lever are thinking of their whole product line r are they addressing the older group as well as the younger group. there's the whole area of post menopa menopausal women there are companies only thinking about young girls and how to make them more beautiful for the moment there are companies thinking about how to enhance the last

part of someone's life and i think making things easier, technology easier. of course pandemic was a big help to that area. because it forced the older generation who perhaps hadn't been well trained in technology, in order to survive they had to use technology there are things that will be acan' adapted for the older generation, but i can't cite tomb coto many companies >> learning how to face time, all that 2030's only eight years away more people over 60 than under 18 we'll talk to you again. and "no red lights" is out right now. when we come back, stock implications for meta, after its long-time chief operating

officer, sheryl sandberg, says she's stepping down. and later, could the choice of working from home cost you your job we'll a talk about that. time now for today's aflac trivia question. in 2017, george clooney and rande gerber sold their casamigos beverage brand to what company? the answer when cnbc "squawk box" continues paul is about to suffer a shelf-inflicted injury. luckily, aflac will help cover his unexpected medical bills. aflac! maybe you could use the money to buy a step stool. i have a step stool. so why are you climbing a shelf? the stool's on top of the shelf, isn't it paul... (shelf crashing) yeah... ♪ ♪ aflac! ♪ ♪ ♪ (sha bop sha bop) ♪ ♪ are the stars out tonight? (sha bop sha bop) ♪

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now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. in 2017, george clooney and rande gerber sold their casa amigos tequila brand to what company? the answer, diageo, the price? $1 billion meta's chief operating officer sheryl sandberg announcing yesterday she is stepping down in the fall after 14 years as mark zuckerberg's number two should investors feel good about that move? jon fortt is here. >> major change needed to happen at the top

and zuckerberg's not going anywhere, and it had to be sandberg she wasn't able to see the world for what it has become a place where facebook's mission of connecting the world left it open to scams. it's proven limiting at a time when governments are eyeing stricter privacy rules sheryl sandberg brought facebook and eventually mieta the discipline it needed now it noeeds leaders to take that model apart investors should be glad new leaders are stretching up, becky. >> sheryl sandberg's had some rocky moments. there there is a lot of institutional knowledge that is leaving with

her. it's not easy to replace somebody like that >> on the other hand, sheryl sandberg stepping down isn't great for facebook at all. i'm sure the last few years have been tough, and sandberg's taken the brunt of that. sandberg would oftening be the facing criticism for policies. no one persevered in the bro culture longer sandberg pioneered things like parking for expectant mothers. which is not something a lot of the guys had thought about until she raised it. sheryl sandberg isn't in charge of the growth product. don't blame her, but her work in

ads at google to now, from, through all that, she did figure out how to make the consumer internet pay off for investors, and investors should be sorry to see her go >> her time in the internet bro culture outlasted not only women but a lot of guys. even somebody like a sergei bren who stepped away from day-to-day roles much sooner. there were huge issues with the advertising platform and what she built up there's an axios story that talks about when she stepped in, in 2008, it was $272 million in revenue, grew it over 43,000%. so i think it's hard not to look at this and say she took this company and made it what it was over that course of time >> these are global challenges and certainly facebook and instagram and social media sort of created a lot of these

issues, but these are also global business models and there are very few people who came in not as founders but operators and managed to create that much value. tim cook comes to mind, still running apple, but it's a complicated legacy, but the value creation part is pretty clear. >> not a long list, i would imagine. good to talk to you, catch you again soon, john still to come, the work from home debate, do you need be in the office or risk losing your job? plus peter krause give us his take aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength. reduces inflammation. don't touch my piano. kick pain in the aspercreme. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do.

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. all right, welcome back to "squawk box. hope you're having a great start to your thursday need better electrical sockets in hotels, we all know that. dow futures up 138 points right now. we lost yesterday. and bond market, general yields are under 2%

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all right, welcome back. let's just say that elon musk has some new thoughts on remote work he commented on a twitter post showing a leaked e-mail that tesla office employees said online work was no longer acceptable that employees unwilling to go to the office should pretend to work somewhere else joining us, a harvard business school professor and author of "remote work revolution. you wrote a book on this there's been back and forth. was musk talking to everybody or just sort of top executives in his company? either way, your take on musk's comments >> of course there's no doubt that he can set the standards for his company as a leader.

the best approach he sees fist and there's no doubt that those who are recipients of this decree will have the option to determine whether they'll go along or not, but unlike the vast majority of ceos that i've spoken to, he is saying what everyone wishes they could do without losing people. but the fundamental question for me is, what problem is he solving for? what visibility is he worried about? to what extent is this about perception of work or the substance of work so there's a lot to unpack here that he's doing something many wish they could do, but there's a big risk here. he may lose people >> he may lose some people tom, let's take it full circle in the commercial break here by the way, which is sometimes the best part of the show, we were talking about marissa myer, the former ceo of yahoo. and i don't know what year it was, basically said, nobody's going to remotely work, because

we've been tracking your vpn activity, and you're not working. she actually said it first before elon musk years ago elon musk is probably not going to say something without data. he's getting cooked for this is there anything behind it, though >> elon mucsk has a twrack reco and a vision for how teams need to work in order to achieve results. and that's been proven time and time again so the balance of a pandemic and non-work culture, we don't know what those results are are we going to bet on a person with a track record unparalleled this business or bet on something else there's, gerngagain, i run a recruiting and staffing firm

that there's less turnover in a non-virtual world. when you're running tess larks t tesla, the leading innovator in the world, you have the ability to make those decisions. >> we just had steve liesman with a survey on their jobs and paychecks. steve was just saying through this, reading through the comments, a lot of people are okay with a pay raise that is not keeping pace with inflation because they're allowed to work from home. that's a huge benefit not only on their time, but you don't have to pay for gas. i can understand companies saying, okay, we don't want to pay more to employees right now, so we will give them these benefits that they seem to treasure so deeply when it's a tighter job market,

my guess is employers will not allow these same freedoms that he are at least on a scale to this point >> when covid hit, many people said they were saving some $5,500 a year from the commute expenses, lunches, coffees, et cetera, which is significant and now you add this inflationary environment, so there's no doubt that there's a cost to commuting to work that people don't want. and that are's also the time factor which takes them away from the work-life flexibility that they've been able to achieve with their families. but i will say when i hear elon musk, when i hear my friend tom, there's some biases. my friend tom is in the in-person employment business. we have to be very honest around our biases, compared to the fact, the empirical fact, 30

years worth of data that remote work and hybrid work actually increases performance. it does decrease it. it increases performance >> it does increase productivity, but tom, i'll take it a different way, and neignei maybe it's too far off to one side hu human, i'd like to believe humans matter, relationships matter, you will have people who remote work to the who have never met in person. and i do wonder, when you know your colleagues, maybe what they're going through at the time, their family is going through, maybe it adds a level of respect in the way you trust and treat them is there something there because if you've never met, what connection do you have, which means how would you treat someone? >> not only that, you get to interact physically with people who are different from you

it's actually a big hurt to dei to not work in the same office whether you live in sub you arar yeah or a high rise, if you are just working at home with a camera you're not gaining any social interaction with people who are different from you overcoming obstacles is what's made america great and when we're talking about how easy can we make everything for everybody,we're losing the fight. and this is the problem that's going on right now is, people are dying in ukraine, and we're worried about a 20-minute commute. we're talking about my good frentsd, and i'm saying that in jest because she is a friend, but she's saying you have to pay for coffee and lunch last i knew, hundyou had to eat

home, too. pack your lunch. very a i have a hybrid office. i think that's here to stay. >> talk about saving money i get it we don't want to commute five days a week. it's expensive, especially right now. but you also want to know your co-workers i would imagine if you are fully remote there has to be more turnover because you don't have the loyalty, the friendships, relationships, and training new employees is not only expensive to find, to bring in, but there's productivity losses because now you have a new person that doesn't know what they're doing. >> i mean, turnover is extremely harmful for companies. we know that it's a year and a half's worth of that person's salary when they leave but the reality is you can build relationships. can you build trust. you can build everything in a digital environment. >> oh, come on >> oh, yes

absolutely think about global companies and global collaboration by definition have had to work, distributed around the world this is not new. global companies have been doing this forever there's some periodical in-person experiences, but to say that digital tools don't allow us to communicate with one another, to know one another is to say that we have not advanced and we will not advance in a world in the world of digital revolution with ai and machine learning and algorithmic work is very quickly showing up. so to force people in the office is to reject the digital revolution that is here, and it is here forcefully >> and with all due respect, when harvard goes fully remote, i'll 100% agree but. it's not going to happen, because learning is best done in person, collaboratively. >> not true. harvard is hybrid. and the online learning market

place is exploding in ways that you can't even imagine. >> it absolutely is, as -- >> hybrid. so no, hybrid is here. and hybrid has won [ talking simultaneously ] >> sell the campus for $100 billion, whatever it is, go fully remote, and you'd never -- >> why, we're hybrid >> i think we have the makings of a good twitter poll >> you're right, brian >> it's a good debate, and, you know what? polite, respectful >> different viewpoints. >> made my day have a great day thank you very much. >> you too, bye! >> it adds to the inequality in this nation when you have worker whose have to go to work white collar workers who never go to work there's got to be some blend, more comfortable meeting but yeah >> if you started a job in the last two years, there's a good

chance you've never met any of your colleagues in person. i just don't know. call call me a relic. what have. humans matter. >> are we getting into that debate again i'm not going to come out well in that if we're talking about age. >> how old are you 35 or 72 >> i have no idea. >> you look good benjamin button santoli. sheryl sandberg stepping down as coo. what it means straight ahead and we'll get an adp private pay rolls and jobless claims report in less than an hour ahead of tomorrow's may jobs report a breakdown of the numbers and what it all means for markets coming up. we'll be right back. and customers all on different systems. you need to pull it together. so you call in ibm and red hat to create an open hybrid cloud platform.

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facebook parent meta's chief operating over, cheryl sandberg, is stepping down from her position after 14 year at the company. joining us, sarah fisher let's talk through what this means. in is pretty historic to see her stepping away, such a long-time person who has built up such a significant company and played such a key role along the way. rich, what does it mean for the stock? >> in some ways, becky, it's surprising it hasn't happened

already. the company has pivoted from what sheryl helped build when mark changed the name of the company from facebook to meta, it was obviously more than just signaling of where the company was going, and it's moving towards this sort of futuristic, i think, still in many ways for a lot of consumers and even investors, a bit intangible meta verse, and we don't though know when that becs applicable to the millions of facebook users or meta users that's not what sheryl built sheryl built the advertising business and in many ways, the question was, this was inevitable, one. two, why today versus, you know, six or nine months ago i think that's a great question, and i can't really answer t it, but i don't think there's really anything surprising about sheryl

moving on especially with the company moving so hard toward this future with this growing threat from tiktok which has certainly become the leader in innovation, i would say, you know, i don't think meta, when you think about facebook, blue and instagram, they're not creating functionality in the way tiktok is. they're chasing tiktok it feels inevitable. i'm sure there will be a lot of people worried today about what this means for meta, but i think this was inevitable as mark sort of pivoted the company >> when sheryl came into this, she was the adult in the room. she was the one responsible for taking a lot of young engineers who were working crazy hours and trying to focus this company and find a way to make it profitable and monetize it. she's clearly done that in a big way. who's the adult in the room now? is it mark himself at this point? >> he's got a whole team of

people underneath him who are going to sort of scramble to take over the things that sheryl oversaw. you have a new coo think about all the departments she oversaw. coms, policy then nikola. there's a woman who's a chief business officer what they've kind of done is over the past few months put people in macplace and elevated them to take over all the things sheryl was handling. but wondering why sheryl is leaving now, sheryl is leaving on top this company has grown its business 43,000 percent since she joined in 2008 and continued to impress wall street it's unclear what growth will look like. it's unclear how fast they're going to get there by leaving now, sheryl sandberg

preserves her legacy as one of the most shrewd tech leaders in the world. if she holds on a little bit longer, you've seen what's happening in the markets who knows how long it will take before facebook will get momentum back. >> what do you think about the stock's pretty rapid decline and the doubts about the company's future smet meta the place to be not meta the company, but meta verse, how do they deal with regulatory scrutiny that's going to be put onthe company? >> the hard part is, in any other environment, if mark zuckerberg in many ways hadn't ended up as one of the most hated people in tech from a regulatory standpoint, i mean, he sort of put the company in a position where because of some of the missteps and challenges they face, they can't make acquisitions given the strength and size of the growth that sarah just

mentioned. in a normal environment, they would buy their way out of their challenges they would go out and buy roblox and epic games there are so many building blocks of the meta verse that they would buy, and it would literally turbo charge or leap frog them into the meta verse in a very significant way you think about the meta verse, the most tangible aspect today to the consumer is playing games. i don't care if you're in the world of roblox or fortnight i guess snapchat you would say, too. to do this, meta would make a big deal they can't they literally cannot, in this regulatory regime. they have to build their way out of that. and that is, first of all, that is unknown it's not like facebook has created something all on their own. they've been great at creating something, take instagram stories, reelz, i think it make

it is hard for investors to excited right now. they are losing to tiktok. and the meta verse is something i think moist investors feel like they're spending too much money on with too long dated of a potential of success and nobody knows how to handicap the potential of success over, let's just say, a ten-year period of pivoting toward the meta verse >> thank you for joining us attitude coming up, we will talk to app tour investor. and we're expecting the latest adp mbnuers and jobless claims stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc

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here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. joe and andrew are off today we've been watching the u.s. equity futures and after a couple down days leading to a down week so far you are seeing grown arrows this morning. right now the dow futures are up by about 140 points. the nasdaq up by 85. treasury yields as you know over the last week have come roaring back, 2.7%s with where we were a very short time ago. now it's yielding 2.909% this morning. here's some of the stories you will be talking about today. meta's chief operating officer, sheryl sandberg will be stepping down from her position she said she'd originally hoped she'd stay on the job five years. instead, it was 14 she helped build meta's ad business into a profit-making machine. sandberg will remain on meta's board though, and mark

zuckerberg did not plan to replace sandberg's role within meta's existing structure. the stock has been down to a four-year low. speaking of lower. oil prices are lower, all ahead of this hour's opec meeting that kicks off at 8:30 eastern time there have been reports and speculation saudi arabia could say they either will ramp up production or are ready to ramp up production, thanks to either gaps made by russia and/or pressure from the united states. and check out shares of pet products retailer, chewy they are movin' up in fact, it is a bully stick market for chewy if you have dogs like i do, you know what that reference s chewy

stood biy its previous outlook, repo reported a 4% profit, chewy is up 19% let's get back now to the markets, and fed expectations in particular >> first the setup with the s&p. pretty routine in terms of give back but this shows you on a one-year basis, a little under water on a 12-month scale basically trading at levels we first got to about 14 months ago, early april of last year. we had these failed rallies. there's a decent chance that this was a little more than a reflex > reflex getting to the fed expectations.

remember the market was talking itself into the idea of a market pause. it's kind of curling back up we're not back up at the highs we got to back in let's say march. it's pretty close. we're rebuilding that expectation for federate rate h. lot could happen between now and then and in term of the inflation versus disinflationary sectors look at tech this is encompassing the entire pandemic period and you see a basic convergence here energy is very extend. up almost 60%. it looks like that's a little bit stretched but only 5% of the s&p. it's really just rebuilding value that had been sort of dominated within the index by

tech longer term it's not clear that kind of energy, that trend is necessarily showing any exhaustion >> we're back to 5%. we were just 4.4% of the s&p a few weeks ago. here's the question, and i want you to editorialize if you'rele le willing to do it border line esg, will they come back they booted tesla and added exxon. >> that's the way out, which is essentially to be sector neutral. >> get clearance >> say within every sector, within every industry you luke f look for the relevant players i don't think that's a big story. >> come back to the desk

joining us right now for more on the markets is peter kraus, the chairman and ceo of aperture investors there's a whole lot of lateightt here, a whole lot of noise >> i think that if you widen out the aperture for a minute, which i tend to do more frequently than narrowing it, but i like to be focussed on what the fed long term is going to do and what inflation is going to do because i think the market really reacting to those long-term trends i think the fed is going to continue to raise rates and including september to 50 basis points it's not going to come off of 50 basis points until inflation show some capability of actually declining. and inflation historically has been sticky. so don't expect the fed to take

their foot off the gas so fast and that means stocks are going to have to react to that and consumer demand is going to react to that. and we've already seen the market adjust pretty significantly to it. but there may be more to go. >> that's what i was going to say. the stocks seem like they have reacted. i guess the question is if you think it's all baked in. you don't at this point. you think there's more to come >> i think the market will be surprised if the rate hike continues. and that's going to have some negative effect on the market. but if you ask me where we are in the process, we're two-thirds of the way there, and there'll be more pain to take consumer stocks in particular, to your point, betsy, are pretty cheap. and buying consumer now, although you might have to sustain some further decrease is a pretty significant discount and makes sense to do. >> actually, it's becky, peter let's take a look at what you think is happening

jamie d jamie dimon says he sees a hurricane about to hoit what do you do do you go with the j.p. morgans acting more conservatively or back to the tech companies who have already been hit. where's the best play, the best opportunity? >> we already at aperture reduced risk some months ago so for us it's really an opportunity to look at bargains, look at opportunities to buy so it's looking for new things that we're not invested in loo looking for companies that are reduced in values. and really investing for the next 18 months to two year jamie dimon could be right about the hurricane. that's why i say we're two-thirds of the way there. i don't think we're fully baked.

>> but things, i would guess if that's your call, if we're two-thirds of the way there, nobody can exactly call correct bottom but if you think moist of this is burned off maybe you're feeling better than were you a few weeks or months ago. >> you can't tell the bottom to your point. >> right in terms of what you're watching, though in terms of what will spell whether this hurricane's getting closer or whether we're going to be able to kind of skate by, you look at consumer cred sit do you look at consumer confidence do you look at this jobs market? >> the jobs market is a lagging indicator. i'm very focussed on what inflation is going to do because if inflation gets sticky, the fed has to keep moving, and that is much more likely to cause a recession. and further deterioration in the market if recession is not sticky, and it goes from headline eight to

five down to four and the fed feels like it can actually be more modest, i actually think the market will take off the market will rebound, because consumers' balance sheets we know are still strong. and everybody's working. it's not like there's no jobs. so i think it's hard to call a recession right now without further increases in interest rates to slow the economy down to get inflation under control >> i mean, is it that, or is it the risk of further exogenous attacks, situations likeukr ukre and russia, and close things down there are outside elements that have put a huge amount of pressure on top of the spending and loose fed policy

>> those things are likely not to get worse yes, ukraine could get worse but if it stays where it is, persistent, unattractive, ugly, humanitarian disaster, which it is, the market's already seen that and china's been closed. shanghai closed. beijing partially shut down. so it's not like those supply chain issues are going to get worse from where they already are. and the market's already digested that. >> peter, thank u vyou. very quickly, if you're putting $25 of your $100 where do you put it >> if there is no real recession, industrials also could be attractive. >> peter, thanks for your time >> okay, bye coming up, breaking jobs data may's adp employment report is

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starting to get leaks slash headlines on the opec meeting that's about to kick off in about 15 minutes r rumors that they might be considering a slightly higher production output. went to 432. now they're talking about adding up to 600,000, so 168,000 incremental add, not exactly the million barrels plus that may be lost from russia it is time for may adp employment report, steve liesman has the number >> 128,000 adp pay rolls for the private sector, 128,000. they revised april to 202,000, down from 247,000. let's look at the details here this is less than half of the estimate of almost 300,000 expected there's the april revision good sector up 24,000.

service sector up 104. it's a disappointment compared to where we need to be there's the non-farm payroll adp has not done a particularly good job of forecasting during the pandemic and the government itself has done massive revisions. but this jobs by business size is interesting here. we have seen small businesses and other anecdotal information as well as other data that small business has struggled to hire relative to large businesses which are willing to pay higher wages and better benefits. those are businesses with fewer than 50 employees, by large businesses up by 122,000 leisure and hospitality leading but clearly not enough that sector may be struggling here now after leading the way regarding coming back from the pandemic trade, transport, utilities up, education and health up 46,000

and manufacturing. that's pretty good reflecting the ism yesterday on the exchange we will be talking to loretta mester. we keep reporting adp even though it's done poorly in the pandemic in hopes that it gets back to its better self and better days. m plus or minus 200,000 is not crazy. >> clearly no sampling model or anything was built to figure out exactly what's been gone on the last couple of years although the relative strength or weakness in leisure hospitality seems to resonate. that seems to be a little bit of a cooling off area of the economy when it comes to wage growth which is something we're all going to be fixated on friday morning as well >> very quickly, home base, that's one of the hr software

companies, they're reporting early signs of leveling off in wages. we maybe saw hints of that yesterday in the beige book. so that's something to watch and our survey also has some suggestion that at least workers who have received pay raises are also satisfied with their jobs so maybe, maybe, maybe it's really hard to know i don't have the algorithm in my head either to figure out the pandemic, but maybe we are getting to equilibrium in wages. >> steve, thanks very much >> pleasure. coming up on "squawk box," what sheryl sandberg's departure from the coo post at meta means for the company, strategy and stockholders plus, recession or no recession, what is next for the u.s. economy stay tuned you're watching squawk right here on cnbc

the big news from the world of big tech, meta coo sheryl sandberg is stepping down from her post after 14 years. julia boorstin joins us with more good morning >> good morning to you, becky. she says she will leave the company in the fall to focus on

philanth philanthropy facebook grew from 153 million to $118 billion last year. i asked her why now. whether it was because of facebook's declining ad growth, the focus on the metaverse or regulatory challenges. she says it's a job i love but not 24/7 it's not a job you can do and other also do other things shes what the coo during several scandals, regulatory attacks and the cambridge analytica scandal. here's what she told me in a 2019 interview in the wake of cambridge analytica. >> if i look even at my job now, my job hasn't really changed i used to spend more of my time working on growth, and now i'm spending more of my time safeguarding the company >> now sandberg told me that the

timing of her departure is more than anything due to her confidence in the company's executive bench, including incoming ceo unlike sandberg, he won't oversee policy, legal or hr, but all parts of meta's ad business will report to him analysts have been weighing in, baird writing that sheryl was a huge asset for meta. her departure is a big loss. but the time is probably right to hand business operations over to the next generation of leadership me sue hoe writing that while mr. oli vavan has big shoes to fill now sandberg will continue to serve on the board of directors. and take a look at meta's stock. it dipped yesterday on the news. now shares trading slightly

higher in the premarket action, becky. it seems people are rehelieved here that there's going to be a smooth transition. >> i'm just thinking about what she told new that interview that she's spending much more of her time focussed on protecting the company and making sure she's safeguarding the company so many roles that showe was playing before who's going to pick up the role of safe guarding the company >> hthat is a role that there ar many people working on that cambridge analytica scandal was a turning point in some ways so many concerns about the responsibilities that facebook has, whether it's the way they impact teens or privacy concerns i talked to one of the senior executives at the company, and she said that a lot of the

senior team has been working with sandberg for a very long time there was chief legal officers, general counsel and other people dealing with these complicated regulatory and safety issue, but i think if you look at what sandberg has been through at the company, she's testified before congress she has been through a lot and certainly has left her mark on the company in many ways but when people say why would she leave, you have to imagine it has not been an easy run, especially the last five years or so. >> yeah. julia, thank you great to see you this morning. thanks for the analysis. when we come back, some breaking jobless claims and productivity data. we just got adp. more numbers on the way. don't go anywhere. "squawk box" are be right back what do you thre be righk . k . r i be right back. l be right . . immune system, energy ...even skin.

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all right, welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc we are about a minute and a half away from initial jobless claims data, also a new look at

productivity just got the amoudp numbers the nasdaq is up by 656 what do you think the importance of the jobs data sotomorrow >> i think the premise is that the economy in this moment, the labor market is tight enough that we can -- >> i mean, i'm not, listen, i'll be here tomorrow i think, so i won't throw a bucket on the coverage, but the jobs number is not going to matter much because we're at full employment >> here's what will matter, the wage growth and what we've seen, how much is it growing to put additional pressure on inflation. >> related to that is the participation rate, because the fed is very focussed othatthat e more slack than we thought, if people go back into the labor force, and that of course feeds into wages

>> bring back people who have retired. >> the boomerang generation. >> although if we get some really weird outsized number, maybe it changes the feds either way. >> you're talking about the ten-year note sitting at 2.893%. remember last week we were talking about down at 2.7% you have seen volatility, at least when it comes to what we were looking at yields across the board. rick santelli is standing by, rick take it away. what are the numbers >> yes, well, let's start out with non-farm productivity the last look, minus 7.5 was the second worst ever since 1947 75 year you have to go back. one of the first months in '47 had a worst number so this is our final read, and it only improved .2, to minus 7.3. we can talk about all the other variables, but productivity,

that's the secret sauce of the u.s. economy, and it isn't looking good if you look at unit labor costs, they ramped up 12.6%. they ramped up from 11.6 for their final read now let's go to initial jobless claims, minus 10,000, if the 20,000 from last week remains, and that is 10,000 less than expected because wrae looking for basically an unchanged week. that is a very, very good read keep in mind here that the cycle low here is 166,000 in mid march. and if we lack at continuing claims always a week in arrears, it is another post-covid low as a matter of fact t', it's the lowest level since the 1960s but suffice it to say that interest rates are on the move yesterday we could look at a variety of reasons why, but in my opinion, bank of canada raised rates, the second 50 in a

row. very hawkish statement europe yields are zoom, zoom, zooming right now. we've traded higher than 120 in a ten-year boom, an eight-year high but all of this, of course, coming at a time where i agree that the jobs numbers, hey, that 128,000, the worst since april of 2020, like a covid number it's very telling. when i see the consumer, listen to jamie dimon, listen to consumer credit. and as you guys talk about jobs, the underlying tone is the health of the consumer, and there's aa there's anecdotal evidence that it's turning and not in the right way. things are changing quickly, mike santoli, back to you. >> budgets are getting squeezed. steve liesman join us now with more what are you pulling out of some of these numbers so far, steve >> i'm not pulling anything out to dissuade the fed from hiking

interest rates, that's for sure. rick was absolutely correct to point out that unit labor cost fed chair jay powell likes that number it still the first quarter, but the fact that it was higher than originally put in there tells the problem is worse worth pointing out, though, we did have a strong fourth quarter productivity number. and this first quarter productivity number i don't think most economists are taking it as a crash in productivity in the united states. we had strange data when it came to gdp of course as well as with exports and inventory really dragging down the number, and that should come back in the second quarter on the jobless claims number, we're not seeing the weakness, i'm seeing high-frequency data out there maybe. the ukg stuff says maybe you'll get weakness tomorrow. hard to have a whole lot of

weakness when you have clachls of 200,000 real quickly, i'll show what you's happening in the fed funds market 95% for july so you can bank on that right now. but the september numbers, the swing number here. that's back up now, 67%. it had been as low as 30%. so the market's pretty much back on yet another 50 in september, and that came yesterday as a result of that strong ism manufacturing number, when yesterday, mike, the two-year moved by nine basis points, and almost nobody commented on it. we've gotten so -- i don't know, bee nu benumbed, is that a word >> that used to be real money. it does go largely unnoticed, but that is exactly where now kind of the battle front of the debate is in september, and we're swinging above and below

35 50 on that you have anecdotal sense that there's layoffs going on in tech land and seems like maybe the jobs plentiful versus jobs hard to get measure and consumer confidence came up to boil, but it's not showing up in claims yet. >> very quickly, mike, what i will point out is this fed notion that we can get rid of job openings without getting rid of jobs. that you're some 5 million over on job openings relative to where the job openings should be and that you could eventually reduce the number of openings without getting rid of jobs as the market tightens. so that would maybe prove jamie dimon wrong, which i'd like to do, and i'm sure dimon would like to be wrong about this. but anyway, i think that's kaey >> it certainly works on paper, and that is the hope

here's the thing wouldn't they probably say that that's the goal, whether they believed it was the likely outcome or not because you're going to be hiking rates no matter what. >> for sure. the fed is always in this weird position of how much it can say about what it really thinks is going to happen because, on, they dance between this thing, we're going to have a recession, we're not going have a recession. they don't want to say we're going to have one even if they believe that firmly, but it does make some sense, mike. we are sitting here every month, those jolt numbers come out, 11.4 million jobs openings normal rate, 5 million to 6 million. and the idea that that is so high and won't come down there is interesting data here the thing i'm concerned about here is businesses could do job hoardings, which means they would hold onto workers longer than they normally would, and that could create a problem down the road >> including for productivity,

steve, thank you very much >> and there was debate from gold goldman sachs. let's go deeper into the state of the american economy and whether the fed can stick that soft landing joining us, austan goolsbee, and professor of my neighbor's daughter, and i will not give her name, and then she might get a better or worse grade. professor goolsbee, let's start but. we know they're going to raise rates in the next few meetings, the question is how much is there anything in your mind that will change the direction of rate hikes to say 2%? >> not in the short run. i think they're kind of on path to do what they're going to do i think by the end of the summer we're going to find out, a, are

we truly done with covid is the covid era over, and we can fully get back to normal and did i say one? or a the other issue that we're going to see is how bad is the supply shock? partly coming from the war partly coming from supply chain disruption there will be a blow back to the argument that we should just raise ten times. we should overtighten in the face of inflation. there will be a blow back of the people who remember, whoa, wait a minute if a hot olot of this is comingm supply shock you can raise the unemployment rate but you can't really get rid of inflation by suppressing demand, because those problems still remain. in the short run i don't think there will be much to change it. but by july, august, going into september, we're going to have to have that discussion. >> and with michael at opec ticking off, one could argue

that higher rates may be good at causing consumer demand to fall off. but if you want the united states to pump more oil, and oil products are extremely expensive and done with borrowed money, raising rates could be more inflationary for the energy side because it will end up with less new oil production or am i just kind of out there? >> put money behind domestic energy production in the situation that they feel like it's kind of temporary you know, it's kind of unusual austan talking about the supply said of the economy. i'm going to talk about the demand side of the economy i think typically we're reversed on that. austan's certainly right, the supply factors are purshing of inflation. most of the inflation weig have now i think is driven by demand. i expect the fed to be on pretty much a blind march a hike in june, a hike in july,

a hike in september. and i think what they're are looking for, is there any softening in the labor market. maybe we see an uptick in the unemployment rate. and secondly, are we seeing consumer demand soften, because right now consumer demand is really fueling the inflation we're having >> and austan, the answer to that is no, but jamie dimon yesterday saying he thought the american consumer had basically six to nine months of savings left or excess savings but a lot of people are flush with cacsh, according to goldman's numbers and others how long will that last? >> yes, there's a huge puzzle that's happening in the job market right now that it's worth remarking on, which is for everyone saying that demand is high and we have a massively

overheated labor market, wages are growing slower than prices the profit margins of companies are increasing so you would not think of real wages would be going down if the job market's as tight as what some of the business leaders are saying so i think that's a pretty significant puzzle there's no evidence of the old wage-price spiral driving inflation. wage-price spiral almost by neces necessity impleies wages are going down. >> by what measures, aside from that, if any, do you think the job market is less tight than we think? we were just talking about this reserve of folks out of the labor force. >> it's, the job market looks very tight it's the puzzle is why aren't

wages going up more? so when people are saying we have to slow the growth of wages, if you take the productivity over a long period. don't just take a one quarter or one month. productivity, real productivity's up more than 5% from before covid began. real wages are down. real wages should be able to go up 5% without generating inflation just from the productivity the fact that you're not seeing real wages go up is a sign that there's no wage-price spiral in the hopper here. >> if you, if you look, michael, at the target earnings numbers, they basically told you why wages are not going to go up, i think, anymore they don't have margin power anymore. they were selling a lot in revenue, but they're taking that by discounts and margin compression. if are you a business, are you compressing your profit margin, it says in some ways, you don't have pricing power, which means your employees may not have the

wage power that they have had for the last two years >> yeah, i think that may be right. i mean, zooming toup to the mac level, i don't think there's any doubt that the job market is extremely tight. there are more job openings than there are unemployed workers to fill them. we're seeing workers quitting their jobs at record rates which means there is confidence that they can go and get a better job. the unemployment rate itself is extremely low. very close to 2019 levels, and we're seeing really rapid nominal wage growth. the labor market is definitely tight. having said that, i agree with austan that right now what we are seeing are high consumer prices push beiing up wages, i ' think we're seeing wages pushing up prices, i think some of the best news we've seen in the data over the past several months is that nominal wage growth plmay e

cooling, and that can short and wage-price spiral. i think it's coming from consumer demand and i think the overheated maybe market is a symptom of that hot consumer demand >> and austan, among the many things that are happening at once here, is this expected and under way shift toward services, away from goods. consumption of goods was way above trend during the pandemic. is that in itself going to create a force of gravity on inflation or service sector inflation going to be the next sticky point >> you might get a little service sector inflation, but i think you're on to what i think is the or one of the central components of the weirdness that's happening now, is this shift back to services from spending on physical goods

i think that more of the inflation right now is coming from supply shock than i think michael does and i think one of the biggest negative supply shocks has been to the supply of workers to the service sector that's the nature of the supply shock. not as much the oil prices going up and kind of the traditional costs of manufacturing i think that will be a little bit of an anchor to pull inflat inflation down huge run up in the price of goods, and if we can get past the virus, i think we can get, let's dol l let's call it positive supply shock. i'm hoping the new inflation numbers over the next three to four months will show significant relief >> austan, university of chicago, i'm thinking milton

friedman, a monetary phenomenon. how much do the books matter her here >> i think they don't matter all the cyclicly cycled items, cars, that stuff went down the fed has a doubly difficult approach, because it's trying to balance off how hard do we step on the break as you see comeback in the normal sectors. but they're in the face of this, well, how much pent-up demand for services are there are people going to go on twice as long a vacation their year because they were not able to go on vacation last year or the year before? are they going to go get their hair cut twice because they've been cutting their own hair? that kind of thing has no

historical precedent the services are not, those services are not normally, they're recession proof. they don't go down in down terms. so the fed is trying to balance, how hard do we step on the brake, because we don't fknow hw fast that stuff's coming back. >> austan and michael pleasure to have you on thanks, guys >> thank you coming up, jim cramer's first take on the trading day ahead, and a reminder not to miss an exclusive interview with lael brainard, her first sit-down since being confirmed by the snatenate in that role

let's get jim's first take of the day what are you watching today? >> oil, because i'm listening to you, and you've got good stuff, trying to figure out how much, how little because you know i think today makes its still mad. given the fact i don't think there's anything really definitive about employment or productivity so you tell me because i think you have a handle on it >> jim, very complimentary i appreciate that, my friend it looks like they'll add a couple hundred thousand incremental barrels.

if you take a million, i don't know how good you are at math, if you lose a million but add 250,000, hmm still down 750,000 per day so it seems bullish even with an incremental add. >> it's bullish, yet all these stocks are down in the premarket. you know and i know that the premarket has been dead wrong every single time. i bet it's dead wrong again. >> wow the other day you tweeted something, talk about oil and stocks for a long time it was sort of the opposite, except for the oil stocks, of course. oil up, nasdaq down. is the correlation largely still there? >> well, i don't know. you know the creeping percentage of the s&p that is oil, it does seem to be that oil has been trying to go from 3% to 4% maybe to 8%, and it's a secular change these resuddenly growth stocks

that is not correlative, other than one group is a growth stock and the other with a big dividend it is very hard to figure out, brian. >> what was the max, jim like decades ago, oil was like 33% of the s&p 500 or something? >> that's high too high, i think. >> but it was 20-something >> 2013 was the largest. >> in the world. >> we know about exxon june 23rd, david, 8:00 p.m. good old exxon and david >> watching oil today. you think opec is going to be the driver of the day, jim >> oh, absolutely. i mean, look, it ain't going to be mondeaux db c3ai jamie diamond's weather report that keeps changing.

come out today maybe he down gralds it to, what, a category three >> mongo db, half the characters of the new "star wars" movie, jim. we appreciate it >> i'm taking my disney plus movies up because of it. >> jim, appreciate it as always. energy 27% of the s&p in 1981. >> thank you >> i was close-ish cnbc investing club withim j cramer go to cnbc.com/investingclub or point your phone at the code on the screen we'll be right back.

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with just over an hour to go to the opening bell on wall street, just over a half hour, actually, lisa ericsson koshgs held of the public markets group at u.s. bank wealth management lisa, a little bit of a comeback it feels a bit tentative, giving back some of last week's rally in the s&p this week, on the other hand, we have these late-day rally, some people making the case a decent low, how does the risk/reward seem to you given we've gotten a 20% decline moderations

moderating a bit since the start of the year? >> good morning. we're still modestly cautious on the u.s. stock market. to your point, we've had some declines, but as we look forward, we still have some question on the fundamentals and really chief among that is the fact that we continue to have a federal reserve that really is intent, obviously, on combatting inflation, so you have that tightening monetary and liquidity environment in front of us. and on top of that, as we look at the earnings picture, certainly with very tough comparables from last year as well as just some slowdown that we're seeing in the macroeconomic front, they've got a head wind as well. so that's really leading us to a little bit more of a cautious stance >> obviously, you know, don't fight the fed became a cliche for very good reasons over the years and it's been the right strategy largely speaking this year i guess the big question is once the market has been down, say one of these deep corrections, borderline bear market near 20%,

the key determining factor historically as to whether it gets a lot worse from here is a recession on the horizon do you have to make that call and are you able to have confidence which way it's going to break >> our base case on recession really is that those chances are lower in 2022. the reason for that really is if you look at where we're starting from, while, again, there is decelerating economic activity, we're starting from a relatively solid base if you look both at the consumer and corporations, they're very relatively healthy and the absolute level of many indicators are still in growth territory. finally, if you think about how fed policy acts, there is a lag effect it takes several months really to kick in i think that all bodes for 2022 still in a slowing economic environment but hopefully avoiding recession i think the open question now becomes what happens in 2023 >> and then what do you do in terms of positioning for ha type

of environment, that sort of late psych bull not yet recession? >> so. 'ear more sector balanced right now across the u.s. equity market, but within each sector a focus on more defensive, higher quality types of companies makes sense so we would be favoring, for example, larger cap companies over small, those with stronger competitive advantages and recurring cash flows, more minimum of debt level. we think those kinds of exposures will help to carry portfolios through this more difficult time. >> yeah. it seems like that idea is sticking with quality has had a lot of adherence, makes a lot of sense. lisa, thank you very much. appreciate it. >> thank you >> all right a final check on the markets here as mentioned, the s&p down about 1.4% on the week coming into today. now looks like the bounce has weakened a little bit. we're up about 11 points on the s&p, 100 on the dow, the nasdaq up about 40.

take a look at the 10-year note. the yields have been on the rise back again, although that has already moderated here, 291, the short end of the curve also popping. oil, not much of an increase on opec, coming off the lows, actually firmed up coming into 9:00 >> might get a slight increase there. we'll find out the news will break and hopefully i'm here to do it. >> absolutely. see you all tomorrow "squawk on the street" is next good thursday morning and welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm dab dab with gym carl has the morning off let's look at futures before we get start at the nyse niles 30 minutes from now we are looking at what would be a higher open. potentially a nice move on the nasdaq our roadmap this morning starts with warning