500 which is up 48% in that same period of time. >> when are we going to hear from the ceo, court? >> so that's going to be tomorrow tomorrow is the big arena event where they gather the associates from around the world, celebrate the accomplishments and then we have a chance to talk to the ceo at the very end of the week's events. >> all right exactly. the tail end courtney, thank you very much. >> thanks for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> see you tomorrow. another volatile trading session here on wall street with the major averages staging a pretty big intraday comeback the most important hour of trading starts now welcome, etch, to "closing bell." take a look at where we stand in the market trying for our first day of gains in the last three, and now almost flat on the s&p 500 for the week with the s&p 500 up 1 spoken 25% the nasdaq zooming 2%. consumer discretionary is the best performing sector right now

thanks to names like under armour, etsy, bookings, expedia. the ark innovation etf up 8% you've got double-digit gains in names like ui path and roblox. some of the slammed parts of the market right now look at the sector heat map right now and you can tell where the strength is, pretty much everywhere except for energy energy the only sector that is red. there are the leading ones consumer, communication services, materials, technology and industrials. stocks are rallying right now but earlier they took a leg lower when i spoke with federal trade commission vice chair. here's what she said when i asked if the fed would consider pausing those steep rate hikes in september >> from where i sit today at market pricing, for 50 basis points potentially in june and july, the data that we have in hand today seems like a

reasonable kind of a path. further out, getting to september, it's a little harder to say we're going to have four more prints on the labor market by then, four more prints on monthly inflation, which i'll be watching very closely and a host of over ther data. so i don't have a really clear sense of where we'll be in september. but if we don't see the kind of deceleration in monthly inflation prints, if we don't see some of that really hot demand starting to cool a little bit, then it might well be appropriate to have another meeting where we proceed at the same pace. if we are seeing a deceleration in the monthly prints, it might make sense to be proceeding at a slightly slower pace right now it's very hard to see the case for a pause we still got a lot of work to do

to get inflation down to our 2% target. >> but what if we do go into recession, how would you respond? >> well, of course policy is not on a preset course, it's going to vary and respond to the data. so, you know, in the world where we see data coming in with gradual deceleration of inflation and a moderation in demand, you could see continued pace of tightening that might be similar to current market pricing. if we saw downside shocks, of course we would respond accordingly. but of course there are risks on both sides if you saw risks to the upside, we might need to move a little faster so we're going to be data dependent. >> let's bring in paul mccully and lindsay bell paul, my big takeaway is that

she -- and she historically is not super hawkish. she's actually usually more dovish and worried about the economy. is not worried about the economy and market sell-off, she's worried about inflation and doesn't see at this point to talk or think about a pause in september. it's a pretty strong message to the markets that they are going to keep going. what's your expectation? >> i think your read is very correct, sara. they're on a mission to get to neutral over the next year, which is around 2.5% incoming data is suggesting they should stay on that mission. they already advertised what they're going to do at the next two meetings which the marketplace has already priced she blessed that and said we've got four more prints between now and september and we will see. so i think essentially she was reaffirming what chair powell has already told us and what the committee as a group is seeing, i think, in harmony.

so i don't think there was a great deal of news in what she said today and she simply pushed back on this notion that they would pause -- >> i thought that was newsworthy considering bostic made it seem like there may be a pause. lindsay, if you look at the market reaction, we saw a dip after the fed again, waller over the weekend, and brainerd today, telling us they are going to be more vigilant on inflation we're able to brush that off and stage a nice comeback rally. does that tell you that it's peak hawkishness priced in already? >> yeah, i mean i was going to say exactly that if you look at the fed watch, the cme fed watch tool, this is pretty much what's priced into the market we have the 50 basis points in june and july. september is kind of a split

decision is it going to be 50, is it going to be 25 and what she said is we need a little more clarity to make that decision and that's going to come with time so i think that the market, after digesting her documentary with you, which was a great interview, it really -- people are just like there's a lot of bearishness already priced in. there's a lot of aggressiveness, hawkishness priced in. i do think you're going to continue to see investors have these knee-jerk reactions to individual data points, different speeches, different commentary and we're entering the slow summer months right now. so there's a lot of things that we're going to have to digest and we're not going to have a lot of good fundamentals to grip onto it's going to be a day-to-day, month-to-month type of thing. >> what about earnings, lindsay, you're sort of the earnings queen. what have we learned from the recent spate of earnings

it seems like there's a lot of mixed messages of corporat america and profitability. what are the biggest takeaways that you have right now? >> yeah, again, talking about that pessimism that's in the marketplace, it's the rhetoric, the narrative right now is that earnings estimates need to come down margin pressure is coming, it's here we're going to see compression in a significant way you're just not seeing that from the consensus estimates. sure, we've gotten some warnings from some specific companies. >> why >> because it's not as many companies downgrading their outlook as the market feels. some big companies like walmart and target and things like that have talked about the pressures they are feeling, but other companies are not seeing that same picture what we see from an operating margins perspective, i think there's a possibility margins will compress a little bit i'm not so sure we'll get this

dramatic decline that the market or investors are anticipating, but we're looking for operating margins to reach historic highs in 2022. that might not be correct. we could see some pressures. we could see pressure for margins to returning to more historic pre-pandemic levels of 15%. right now we're at 16.3% in the first quarter. so while the market and companies have been able to manage through this environment, i don't think necessarily a little bit of pressure is the worst thing, especially after valuations have come down as much as they have. >> so a lot of it, paul, will depend on what the economy does and it's sort of unknown to what extent the economy is cooling. that's the word brainard used today. we got a weaker adp report on jobs, in fact declines for the second month in a row for small business weaker manufacturing orders. we've got a jobs report tomorrow what's your sense of what's happening with the underlying economy coming off of a negative

first quarter growth number. >> the negative first quarter doesn't matter, that was a statistical fluke. away from that, i think the economy is in fact slowing from a very rapid place and that's not a problem that is a solution if the economy wasn't slowing, if it wasn't credible it was going to continue to slow, then we would have a problem. that is the solution to the elevated inflation problem so i don't look at it as a nefarious thing at all, and i don't see how recession risks now at all i do very much agree -- >> you don't see high recession risk jamie dimon just said we're going to have a hurricane coming. >> i don't knowwhat a hurrican is to jamie. >> worse than a storm cloud. >> back when i was a young man we used to call recessions bananas. i don't know if his hurricane is a pabanana but the economy is

clearly slowing. you look at the global picture as jamie does and we have a lot of challenges. i will defer in trying to fine tune who a hurricane means to jamie. >> i know, it sounds like you don't agree. lindsay, ball, thank you we'll leave it there appreciate it. by the way, we are near session highs, up about 270 or so on the dow. the high was just about 300. the low was down 300 so another crazy 600-point swing in the dow. a top executive at wreck-it discusses the strategy to help ease the baby formula shortage. find out which tech stocks will issue currency warning in the wake of microsoft's guidance later today. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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the baby formula shortage is getting worse. numbers released today show more than 73% of baby formula products were out of stock nationwide as of sunday. the u.s. government began flying in formula from overseas to try to alleviate the shortage. this comes after an abbott manufacturing plant shut down in february exacerbating the shortages caused by supply chain outaging we'll talk to an executive from wreck-it who was in that meeting. they now say they control more than 50% of this market with the abbott shutdown. we'll talk to them on the other side of this break taking a look at the dow, we're

up nearly 300 points with every sector positive except for energy consumer discretionary in the lead with atbeen down names like under armour and etsy leading the way. we'll be right back.

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welcome back let's bring in now robert cleveland from reckitt his company makes infamil. i know you've been meeting with president biden and several lawmakers to alleviate this shortage the president said yesterday that he wasn't aware of this issue and how acute it was until april but that you guys in the industry knew as far back at february why the gap? what happened there? >> well, we live in this industry day in and day out. i visit the shelves personally pretty much every week we talk to consumers constantly. we're always looking at our market share data. we're just very, very close to it and so it's natural that we would understand the consequences of the recall announcement probably earlier than anybody else.

>> so we're all living with that now and seeing the impact of it. i saw that you have 54% market share right now in the u.s. since the abbott closing of the plant. how is that possible >> well, prior to the recall, we had about a 34% share. we're the second largest manufacturer in the u.s. and so we were the ones who were most able to step up, increase production, run our plants 24/7. we've managed to deliver about 30% more to the market than we were a year ago. and the absence of a major competitor has put us in that position it's a position of special responsibility we take it very seriously, especially with the safety and quality of our products, making sure that's maintained while we tried to feed as many infants as we can. >> they're big market share numbers. i think we should shine a light on to what this industry is in america and why we've had this problem. it's really three companies.

you and nestle and abbott labs which control the market 98% of formula in this country is made in this country. how did we get to this sort of oligapoly position where one plant removal is leading to such a challenging crisis >> it's not really the word i would use to describe it the nature of infant formula is that it is a near pharmaceutical grade manufacturing process. the specifications we have to make it under are very, very tight because these are infants who rely on it for their sole source of nutrition. so really the only thing that keeps somebody out of the market would be their inability to produce it at scale and safely we have been doing that for a long time. i think that's why you see us as a major manufacturer in the market there are actually a number of other entrants there was a new company that's entered the market who believes they can also safely produce

and here they are and they'll compete and perhaps the numbers you just showed will change. >> right so foreign entrants finally being allowed in this market what would you say you need from the fda next i know you're producing at a singapore plant trying to ship it in, a mexico plant as well. are they giving permission to do that quickly enough? >> yes we have world class facilities in singapore and mexico. we typally produce for asia and latin america for those but we're in a position to bring product to the u.s we've submitted the paperwork to the fda. we're literally ready to start production almost on the hour as soon as we get that approval and we're just waiting to get it as soon as we do, we'll jump right in and bring that product to the u.s. and put it on the shelves quite quickly because it will be under the enfamil brand and so we think we're in a unique position to address the crisis with those options. >> there are reports, robert,

that your parent company is looking to actually sell this business i'm curious, i don't know what you can say about it, how it's going with sort of lack of clarity on the regulatory front about ultimately how it's going to shake out and whether the whole market will look very different on the other side of this crisis? >> yeah, we're public ly traded so as a matter of policy we don't comment on rumors in the marketed place on things like that but everybody here, the mission, the focus, everything we're doing every day is about putting as many feedings to shelf as possible that special responsibility of being in a leadership share is something we're taking very seriously. that's really our focus right now. >> how long is it going to take for the shortage to work out, assuming we get some of the approvals that you need? >> it's a little hard to predict because of course we have to wait for the approvals we'll need some support from the fly formula program. we're waiting on details on

that you have abbott scaling up and the additional requests the fda is looking at. i think it will be some weeks before we see significant change at the shelf infant formula again is something the manufacturing is -- it just takes a lot of skill and a lot of quality and a lot of safety. it moves at that pace off it >> yeah, no, we want it safe but we need more robert, thank you for joining us keep us posted on those efforts. >> it was a pleasure to be here, thank you. >> robert cleveland. take a look at microsoft shares, making a big comeback in today's session. this comes on the back of the tech giant lowering its earnings and revenue guidance siting headwinds from the stronger u.s. dollar joining us by phone is brent thill. it's interesting to see the market brush it off. jim cramer was saying investors should give them a pass, should buy on this news they're not speaking about demand weakening or anything

like that. do you agree >> absolutely. i'm actually calling in from our software conference in san francisco where we're hosting microsoft right now. they clarified that this has nothing to do with fundamentals, that this is all fx. it has nothing to do with the underlying business. we're hosting 90 software companies and demand is still pretty good. clearly there's some concern over the macro and the consumer weakening, but enterprises are still spending so for now things look okay. most of the companies are still saying, hey, if it's going to happen, we're going to see fundamental weakness in the back half of the year and into '23. but so far so good, not seeing it and microsoft just spoke at our conference. >> there you go, breaking news for some reason it came as a surprise to the market even though the dollar has been strengthening for months now against major currency who else is at risk of lowering

guidance >> salesforce highlighted this marc benioff was clear about this impact and so i think the majority of the industry is under duress because of this i think most investors will look at the core underlying fundamentals rather than fx. that's what we're seeing is that weakening, we're not seeing it at the magnitude that the market has been expecting so stocks are starting to find floor and rebound. we talked about the great valuation reset. software traded at 19 times forward revenue and now it's mid to high single digits so much more palatable investment opportunities. private equity have been clear on m & a coming in with bigger deals. i'd say ultimately we're seeing the backdrop the demand not as bad as feared and the fx headwinds are -- this

morning microsoft was down everyone was worried was in a fundamental issue and they clarified there is no fundamental concern from what they see so far. >> datadog is up 15%, okta is up 10%. and these are still down 40 to 60% year to date, brent. so is what you're saying is some of the moves in these cloud names are overdone because fundamentals aren't weakening that much? >> i think so. we met with datadog yesterday and they're saying they're seeing nothing the majority of companies that we're meeting with said they are not seeing a slowdown. our view is if you're going to see the weakness in software, you'll see it in the back half of the year or into '23. i think we'll see a little bit of a rally given how bad the sector has performed energy has massively outperformed and all our pms have moved into energy over software it feels like the group has been overshorted and overhated. we're seeing, i think,

ultimately signs that maybe demand is not as bad as stocks are implying so you're seeing a little bit of relief rally we're not out of the woods yet we certainly think things could soften going forward, but from what we can tell in a real-time check coming off of 90 companies at our software conference, we're not seeing the big fundamental slowdown that everyone was expecting. >> so just a multiple compression then really. brent, thank you for joining us. brent thill from jeffries. major averages reversing losses early in the session. bank of america out with a new note saying now may be a good time to buy stocks mike santoli taking a look at his dashboard. turns out they were right at least today. >> it's moving in the right direction. what's the market been doing since less than two weeks ago. it's up 9% and has been feeding off negative sentiment that's built up the past few months

hedge fund positioning, investor surveys, all of the rest this measures the recommended equity allocation by consensus of wall street strategists this is what the strategists are telling their clients to do in terms of how much stock to hold in their portfolio it's got down to 55% that qualifies as the low end of the range. when this is low, it means there's a buildup of fear, of defensiveness in the market and usually the market over a 12-month period tends to do well 90% of the time it has done well what's fascinating is we're not near the bearishness we saw in 2011, '12 or even '16 or '17 so it's going in that direction but not a flashing green light. >> so maybe nauot capitulation - >> i think we did stop short of being all-out terror

i can recommend 992018 people saying we're going to have to retest those lows. it happens all the time. you know, i'm still sort of wait-and-see mode in terms of whether that low was a good one but a lot of things did line up in the way of sentiment and positioning to allow for this rally. >> i feel like the market is taking these comments from the big bankers pretty well. jamie dimon totally changing his tone waldron today of goldman sachs striking a similar note. they have a pretty good handle on the economy and the money moving and they're turning so bearish. >> but none of them are saying things are worrisome at the moment they're not seeing today's activity as being somehow -- >> it's what to come. >> and when you talk about storm clouds or a hurricane, everyone has had an umbrella hope for months that's what's been happening in the market. >> you're just going to run with it mike, thank you. we'll see you in the market zone. guggenheim slashing its price target on netflix by $85 over costs associated with an

ad-supported offering. the analyst behind that call joins us later with netflix popping today, 5.5%. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again.

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check out today's stealth mover. it's hormel foods, one of the biggest performers the maker of spam, planter's pennsylvania nuts cutting its full year profit guidance. take a look at where we stand overall. we are still near the highs of the session and still of a pretty broad-based rally it's holding on to the close utilities and health care underperforming. it's the consumer names and communication services and materials names outperforming with the nasdaq popping 2.2% the s&p 500 is about to go positive for the week wiping out two down days. wall street is buzzing about the fintech's move to expand trading hos.ur the impact that could have on

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what is wall street buzzing about today? sofi announcing an extended trading day for users by nearly five hours kate rooney has the details. maybe good for sofi. is it good for retail traders? >> sofi would argue that it is they are expanding access and expanding hours. investors can now trade from 9:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. eastern executives say the current market hours can be inconvenient, as they call it, since they're during peak work hours and might leave people outside of the east coast behind sofi framing it as leveling the playing field. the ceo says members' lives

don't operate 9 to 5 and we've certainly learned that over the past two years the incumbent brokerage firms, charles schwab, fidelity, interactive brokers offer extended trading hours robinhood was the first fintech to do this they talk about people going back to work and being preoccupied during market hours. sofi makes a smaller percentage of its revenuem trading compared to robinhood but trading does drive engagement on fintech platforms and those two certainly compete for the same customer base. >> the market likes it sofi outperforming today mike, we should note there is a different liquidity pattern when it comes to after hours trading and could be more risky. >> it's already available through other brokers. but if you're trading on news and things that break after hours and earnings, it's a recipe for getting into an ill

liquid market that's easy to get chopped up the algorithm-based traders, the professionals are trying to cash in on these quick moves, you're not going to outmaneuver them. so if the question is i was at work all day and want to enter some trades, no big deal, you'll get the same price you would during the day if you're trying to jockey for advantage against the pros after hours, it's not a formula for success. >> but they would argue that it does democratize the process more because it gives you a shot. >> without a doubt that is the ethos of those firms. >> mike, thank you see you soon. it's been a pretty rough year for lululemon but the stock is rising after the bell a top analyst about whether it could be about to break out. and a big price target cut on netflix when we take you inside the market zone, with the dow up almost 300 points

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this is the system you built moving from concept to customer. this is how. airtable. we are now in the"closing bell" market zone. mike santoli is here as always to break down these crucial moments of the trading day plus guggenheim's michael morris, cutting his price target on netflix first up, stocks rebounding after losses earlier in the session. major averages currently at session highs right now. we've got a 2.3% gain on the nasdaq 100 there's the dow, 310 points. third time's a charm, mike we've seen these intraday comebacks. they didn't last into the close in the last two days but this one looks more solid, more broad. what does it tell you? >> it got back to friday's close so more or less flat for the

week the three days when we saw the market declining, pretty good excuses to continue lower, just didn't do it today of course microsoft, oil, lael brainard's comments, all of those could have served as a convenient excuse to have this rally fizzle and it hasn't so far. that's usually the mark of a market where big professional fund managers feel a little underexposed to stocks and underinvested given the fact we're up a bit against those lows i think we're in the range that even the bearish traders were saying we could rally up to 4250, 4300 on the s&p and it would still be a bear market rally. >> there's a ton of bad news in this market already. brainard, jpmorgan, goldman sachs comments all today you could have easily seen the market fall on all of that not happening. we've got some breaking news on the social security trust

fund ylan myy with more. >> reporter: social security will be able to pay benefits through 2034 social security disability insurance will be fully funded the next seven years and medicare will last through 2028. treasury officials say all of these programs face long-term funding challenges but call this out look resoundingly positive that is the result of a stronger economy bringing in higher payroll and income taxes and a decline in disability rates. >> it's a change, right? it was supposed to be depleted in 75 years. >> that's the first time since 1983 that disability insurance well not be depleted within 75 years and it really is just a testament to the surprisingly strong economic recovery >> that is good news, ylan, thank you. the federal reserve officially kicking off its other

tightening program this week, just yesterday earlier we spoke with lael brabr brainard and discussed her outlook for the economy. listen >> we're certainly going to do what is necessary to bring inflation back down. that's our number one challenge right now. we are starting from a position of strength. the economy has a lot of momentum the other factor that i think is very positive is that business balance sheets and household balance sheets start this process from a very healthy position >> so the question from that, mike, can they pull it off a soft landing she was mentioning all the strengths in the economy we're about to get a double dose of tightening. i think the balance sheet, we probably don't talk enough about it which really started to shrink this week and really in earnest in september, what

impact that's going to have on the economy and the markets as well. >> it's very, very unclear you know that i'm not somebody who thinks that it's not the actual quantity of money on the balance sheet that is the determining factor here. it should happen in -- it shouldn't be a big deal, plus the last time we did this there were problems in the overnight funding markets. repo capacity was not high enough that seems to have been fixed and that's what really threw a wrench in the works in 2018. so that should be okay but it doesn't change the fact it's a slowing economy. they're trying to tighten financial conditions in multiple way. ewe stwe still have to wait and see and it's suspense to see how this will play out >> i'm going to quote you on that shares of netflix rallying at guggenheim reiterated its buy

rating saying the addition of an ad-supported option will lift prospects. they say it will raise near term costs for netflix and the firm cut its price target from 350 to 265. let's bring in the analyst that made the call, michael morris. you still think it's a buy but it's a little different economic model for netflix going forward. explain. >> absolutely. i would separate the two things here the price target change is not unique to netflix, it's indicative of a fresh look across the industry, not just to analysts but the entire investment community has to take with the prospect of higher interest rates and greater focus on near term profitability as a core valuation metric. but i want to make sure we stay focused on what i think is a promising and economically expansive opportunity for the company and that is rolling out an ad-supported tier

they referenced that on the most recent earnings call we put more specificity about when we think it will happen and how much of a contribution it will make to the company we think it's one of the most exciting things in the media and streaming business that's going to happen over the next six to 12 months. >> the stock is down 70% from the highs. so do you think that wall street just doesn't appreciate the opportunity, that is the ad-supported funding from my perspective they're getting a valuation reset but the fundamentals have been weak as well with the subscriber loss. >> absolutely. keep in mind what we're trying to do is make good decisions going forward and not necessarily dwell on the mistakes that have been made but learn from them. in the case of the stock coming down, i think a big part of that is a realization that the market had about the limitations of the long-term growth for the premium or the subscription-only tier for the business if you look back two years, say pre-pandemic, there was a view that there were 800 million global broadband households that

really represented an addressable market for this business there was not a lot of competition. it looked like there was a tremendous amount of runway. and entering the pandemic, there was a lot of mixed signals with respect to how much demand was pulled forward, how much was true underlying demand over the course of the last two to three quarters what we've seen is really strong indications of maturity of the business in the context of its premium tier some of that can be competition, some of that can be streaming fatigue, there are a number of reasons. but the bottom line is the move from the ultimate highs of the stock to where we were previously really had to do with the market digesting the maturity the change that we made today in our valuation has more to do with the interest rate environment and our valuation parameters, but we still see 30% upside for the shares from here. >> so what do you think, michael santoli, that the company will see revenue approaching $75

billion by 2030 and there's a buying opportunity here? >> it's very interesting now to view it as an opportunity where the majority of the future subscriber growth is going to come to. obviously the market will need proven to them that it will provide an acceptable average revenue per user, that these are going to be stickyenough subs and it will be a thriving business the stock finds itself in a growth purgatory spot. only a quarter of all the analysts are recommending it right now. it's got what looks like a fairly reasonable valuation in contrast to how it's traded in the past i think it's a wasit-and-see typ story but interesting now that some people have turned their back on the story. >> michael morris, thank you for the note and expanding on that check out nvidia, the chip maker hosting its shareholder meeting and announcing supply chain issues could improve in the second half of the year. kristina partsinevelos joins us nvidia joining other tech

companies in a slow down what are you hearing about the supply chain >> actually it's a slowdown in hiring nvidia reiterated they will be slowing down their hiring for the rest of this year, so they're joining the likes of uber, peloton, microsoft, netflix, insta cart, you name it big tech companies say they're slowing down hiring. the second point was they believe the supply chain issues will start to ease in the second half of the year well, we are in the second half of the year starting a day ago, so they believe it's going to be better for gaming products especially ahead of the holidays and lastly, crypto mining. they believe although crypto mining has decreased, it's still not a meaningful or significant contributor to their bottom line keep in mind that gpus, graphic processing units, are used in crypto mining but they wanted everyone to know that it's not a huge portion of thaeir business given how volatile crypto prices

are. you can see they're up 36% but down 33% on the year. >> thank you for clarifying. so it's a slowdown in hiring >> yes >> are they freezing are they cutting trying to get a sense of what these tech companies are doing and whether that matters for the overall economy. >> great question. they just said slowdown and that was the only terminology used. it was a short, quick comment from the ceo this is something that came out in the earningsas well unlike other companies, we know that there's been some layoffs and some cuts. in nvidia's case that's not what he said. he said that they hired a bunch of great talent, a lot of talent over the last little while is why they're going to start to slow down. that was separate from the supply chain issue. >> nvidia helping the tech stocks rally today we are near session highs with the dow up more than 330 points. let's hit retail because lululemon will report q1 results after the bell shares are down about 25% this

year joining us now is oppenheimer and company's brian nagle. brian, how does the setup look what do you expect >> i'm optimistic that this report from lululemon that we'll get in 20, 25 minutes or so will help to alleviate some of these concerns you're right, sara, the stock has been weak. but behind the stock price weakness and some of this near term choppiness, i think you have a very strong brand the company is developing well in its core markets as well as overseas evening we'll get more indications from the company today when it reports its results that the issues, whether it be the supply chain or issues in china are transitory and the company is actually developing quite well. >> how does lululemon do in an economic slowdown? which we know we're going into in some sense, right the fed is raising interest rates, we're seeing global slowdown how strong can that brand hold

up without them having to do markdowns or seeing weaker sales? >> look, i think it's exactly what you alluded to. it depends on what type of slowdown we go into. if it's a modest pullback in spending, lululemon should perform quite well there's a very committed consumer base willing to pay up for these products, pay up for the quality, pay up for the fashion. in a modest pullback in consumer spending, that will probably not be hit that hard if we fall into something deeper like a real recession then we've got to be honest lululemon sells a more expensive product and you've got to think that demand for at least some time could be hurt >> and nike holds up better in that environment >> nike is broader look, nike would also -- what we've seen with nike and i talked about as well is nike has pushed price points higher they sell a much wider selection footwear, so they have theinto ability to allow consumers if

they so choose to trade down that's not so much the case with lululemon. >> you've got a $440 price target on lulu, so we need to see a big jump brian, thank you we always get a pretty big move, mike santoli, on lulu earnings will that tell us anything about the consumer >> i think it will tell you something about whether this theme of the reporting season, that higher end customers have been holding up better, retailers that have been catering to them have tended to see less of a fall-off in demand, so we'll see if that holds true the stock interestingly trades almost in parity with nike lulu has a lot more runway in terms of growth and market share and store counti and all those things you want to see it is in an interesting spot but down 30 or so percent from its all-time high. it's actually 37%. it's actually held up somewhat better than a lot of the high

valuation consumer plays have. so we'll see it looks like it's at a pretty neutral point in terms of tacticals. >> we're up more than 400 on the dow, 424, so a buying spurt into the close. that's the opposite of what we've seen in the last few sessions we've got every sector green now except for energy, which is lagging, down about 0.4 of a percent on that opec news which sent oil prices a little lower consumer discretionary is up 3%. materials up almost 3% communication services two minutes to go in the trading day. mike, what are you seeing in the internals in this rally into the close. >> the consumer discretionary is tesla helping that out it's about 80% upside volume that's very strong came after two days where it was a little negative digesting last week's gains take a look at semi conductors relative to the market over the current quarter, the quarter to date it's catching up again so if semi conductors are a good

bellwether, they have now more or less closed the gap just so far this quarter and so that's a decent sign. naturally nvidia is helping tha. the volatility index cracking below 25 that's been a rough floor. basically at a four or five week low in the vix this could in the short term create a self-fulfilling prophecy so we may be in that re-risking chase phase as this rally has not come in for people since it started 10, 12 days ago. >> whether they could have blamed bad news on the brainard comments sounding very hawkish when it comes to no pause in september or the dimon comments or the waldron comments from goldman sachs but ignoring it and rallying into the close. most of the dow stocks salesforce is the biggest contributor to the gains, follow-through from earnings boeing, home depot, honey will

also adding big to the dow rally. 1.85% gain consumer discretionary leading amazon and tesla will help but you've got etsy, under armour up 7% the nasdaq also having a very strong day as technology comes back up 2.7% and small caps join the party as well. that does it for me on "closing bell." have a great ight. into "overtime" with scott >> sara, thanks so much. welcome, everybody, to "overtime. we're just getting started and we are packed today. earnings from lulu, rh and crowdstrike dropping any moment now. we'll also speak to dan ives to see what microsoft's guide down means to your money. now we begin with the talk of the tape the sudden dare i say it resiliency which not only brurkd aside comments from jay powell's