>> some of the bans that have affected their businesses such as the ban on adding new us users -- >> that's going to do it for us on squawk on the check tech check starts now. welcome to tech check. carl is off. today as major indices rally, apple up 2%. we will look at implications for apple stock and more apple up about 2% this morning elon musk shaking things up with the pending twitter deal that's tanking the stock. buy now, pain later.

we talk weak stock performance despite a pretty solid quarter we'll start with the market. the nasdaq is rallying this morning. no it's now in positive territory our next guest is still feeling bearish on the market. how should you protect your portfolio? joining us is founder, dan niles. it's great to have you the s&p is up. the s&p is up about 13, 14% from its peak that's nothing compared to where you think it will go you're anticipating 30 to 50% sell off from peak to trough next year. what gets it there fed, fundamentals, both? >> it's really both. our rallying cry for this year is don't fight the fed the fed is your enemy for the first time in 13 years deal with inflation and the second part is don't fight the fundamentals where we think we're looking at a u.s. recession next year.

ofly obviously we had a negativ gdp. i think we get a recession next year the combination of those things will drive multiples lower as we look at next year. >> dan, how did the tech mega cap fit into your outlook? apple is higher in the current session. where does it go from here do they hold up relatively better >> no, i think it is much worse because right now you're having to worry about something you haven't had to worry about the last 13 years and that's valuation. if you look at the s&p, it's trading at about 18 times. if you look at apple, i believe it's trading at about 24 times apple is a pandemic beneficiary whether you're talk about services businesses where they got paid a lot of money for people at home playing video games or from the sell of their products like the mac, like the

iphone where, remember, encounter '19, three out of the four quarters, both mac sells and iphone sells were negative year over year those have been decelerating we expect them to go back to negative growth. instead of buying macs and iphones we'll be out on vacation going to our favorite restaurants, going surfing, et cetera you're seeing the shift spend from services, from goods to services and apple will get hit with that and they also have a premium multiple to other names that have come down already. >> what's the scenario where you're wrong, dan? particularly on apple since it's wwdc day given that the last time we had a really big downturn and i mean aside from the pandemic, apple

seemed to innovate through that creating new platforms it wasn't about engaging what the old products are doing but the profitability of new products now we have the chips. we have potential augmented reality headsets and software. if question get a soft landing, could some of the stocks that are big in innovating be okay? >> owell, i'm not sure i follow the innovation portion after that, jon. they just benefitted of me having to buy a mac for my kids when they were at home for college. if you look at apple, even longer term from 2015 through 2019 for their iphone revenues, they were down 6% over that four-year period of time mac revenues were up 1%.

what bailed them out was the pandemic because everybody had to upgrade products. if you look at really long term and you say ar br which i've been a big proponent of. they should hopefully benefit. remember, iphone is still over 50% of their revenues. that's a big driver of their business the second portion is services if you're out and about, you're not going to be giving that services revenue through apple by playing video games that service is revenue piece. the gross margins are about 70%. that compared to mid 30% gross margins for iphones. the services slow down is even more problematic if that's what you see going to the later part of this year and none of this would matter if the multiple wasn't at 24 times versus the s&p at 18 times.

you have facebook and google sitting in the mid to high teens. i think you have to bring valuation back into the picture when you look at all of these stocks which you haven't had to do for a very long period of time >> well, if we're talking about the other end of the spectrum, lets we haven't been but let's. the stock is down 75% year to date even though it seemed to be holding up okay earnings wise. that's probably not the type of stock that you have in mind to dip into now but it might have been beaten down enough, right >> you're exactly right. it's not something i'm interested in. one thing we have tweeted about and written about a lot to srt of -- sort of what you're talk about is the china internet. a lot of the new credit fin tech

companies that aren't profitability, that aren't generating cash flow and the bigger concern is what happens to credit and how that effects them going forward you look at names in china, for example, and a lot of their problems are self-inflicted. drive to common prosperity locking down major cities. massive regulation we talked about this lot but those are names where the k web is an example of that is down over 70% from its all time record highs where nasdaq is down more than in the mid 20% range or so from its all time record highs y you're reopening cities in china. that should help a lot with a will the of those names going forward. the regulations are letsing off. the other two factors really should help the multiples expand even if you look at last week, k web is up with the nasdaq down

you're seeing that continue and even today i believe it's out performing quite a bit >> we're looking at a chart. it's up 7% another 7% today, dan. let take didi kind of poster child of the chinese issues as well as the opportunity. it feels like the regulatory cloud are being lifted shares are just surging today. part of that news, and this is the part i'm really focused on, will have to transfer 1% of their shares to the state giving officials greater say in running the business this is according to a report by the wall street. yes, there's self-inflicted problems that beijing has put in place but could also be self-inflicted fundamental issues put in place going forward for a lot of these companies as well that investors would have no control over >> you're absolutely right that's why for me if you're going to be a retail investors but first thing i'm looking at is buying a diversified index that has a lot of news in it

i 100% guarantee there's going to be snap chat in there in the sense that something that's already down 60, 70% goes down another 40% before this year is through. i wouldn't by didi you can try to trade it for day or two but to your point, names that are in cross hairs of the chinese government they don't like video games. they don't want people spending as much time on that, et cetera. they are driving a lot towards electric vehicles. they are still positive on e-commerce fin tech is an area that the chinese government doesn't like. they have a lot of support for the traditional banking system that's why if you're going to play in this space, you're taking your life in your hands i think you're much better off with a lot of diversified portfolio. hedging that with u.s. shorts and names that have not come down nearly as much that have

fundamental issues >> yeah, basket and the individual names that can be hard thanks for starting the show with us. talk to you again soon. >> thank you back to apple. the world wide developer conference start ifs in two hous julia is here to explain on the ads. >> apple is expected to once again expand its privacy protections for its iphone and device owners to make it harder for platforms to sell ads that narrowly target users. the company is expected to make another change in the operating system that it is unveiling today that would prevent finger printing that's a process of tracking users based on browsers to better target ads. they would do this by expanding an apple program called private relay. that's apple's way of hiding ip

addresses. apple could use this to create more opportunity for its own ad business mar began stanley writing a total ban on fingerprinting techniques would impact atri bug - attribution and targeting. they are talking about the changes apple made with its ios 14 it's also expected to launch a vr headset to compete with meta's oculus. this is a rivalry to watch

>> thank you for more to expect from apple and wwdc, joanna stern join us now. getting developers to take best advantage of those is a way apple can accelerate things. what are you expecting on that fr front? what would be a good day for the m series >> i knew you were going to ask about this i just had a feeling here we are two years later and it's been hugely successful. the m1 series chips with all the variations, the macs, the pros all of those hugely successful to me, if we can see an m2

today, there's lots of reports we'll see that in the new mac book era if we can see that, that's another great step ahead. could be really good news. >> steve, i know you have been focused on augmented reality and coming out with software for the ipad and iphone. we are looking for hints of what could be in the headset. software is a good way to gauge what might be coming in hardware what are you looking for there that was seen as this is the foung for when they really p

want to do some new kind of technology whether it's headset or something else. we're going to look, how are they building on that foundation in augmented reality that give us more hints at what this headset could look like. there's an interesting report over the weekend in the new york times saying one of feature they will announce is way to talk to your apps. that doesn't sound cool on your phone. why would you talk when you can just tap it? when you extend it to augmented reality, when it's not occupy your face, talking makes more sense. we're here in person and it's really neat. this is the first time apple had an inperson event. it's got a cool vibe and feeling here >> it's a great feeling. i know i was at google io a few weeks ago and it was nice to be back in person

we know the other tech companies are building in public but we haven't seen as much from apple. >> i would love to hear about this future reality or whatever the os that is going to run on this future headset. i'm not confident we'll hear about it today i think it is crucial to start talking about this os. there had been these features but have any of us use augmented features on your iphone. maybe some snapchat filters but we don't really use that for this to sort of breakthrough and for people to understand this is really the future that apple is betting on, i think they have break from what they are doing on the phone >> that's ar, right? i thought people are using it.

when you hold your phone up to something, that's ar but i'm not sure people put two and two together look what the we're going to hear about today >> explain twhie is so important. there's a will the of folks especially here in san francisco in the bay area where you are that believe that ar is the next big platform that's going to replace the senator phone down the line why does apple need to get this right, steve >> yeah, that's exactly right. you also got to keep in mind o early in this and the technology hasn't caught up to the vision that ultimately apple and all these other companies

want to reach. it's going be kpiind of baby stp toward what we see today we've been seeing the baby steps again not just from what apple is doing but also oh companies see it as the first step in the evolution of this technology we're not going to be get to the end point for several more years. >> i don't think ever replace the senatorphone >> wwdc is very much about smart phones and apple make the case for how its softsoftwares, its ware is creating economic opportunity for this broad group of software developers does this strengthen apple's hand talking to these developers with the innovation they are coming out with? do they need to give a little bit more to keep this important constituency happy >> i think that's the big cloud right over apple park right now. you'll see that's not many clouds here today. i can't really see very well

>> just i cloud. >> just i cloud here today can apple address what's been going on with the revenue that apple takes. will they address that i don't know today but i think especially as you me're mentiong that people are going to be looking to make more money from their apps, what will apple provide to their developers. this is the show to say we have got you. this is the number one platform you should create your software for. >> might be a recession. night be there's a lot of people hoping soft landing thank you. turning to twitter, elon musk saying the company is resisting its right to information on fake account shares are down nearly 4% this morning. julia is become with all the details. >> this is the latest from elon musk in his battle with twitter over his pending deal to buy the

company. in a letter to twitter, musk accuses twitter of resisting and thwarting his right to information on fake accounts on the plflat form saying he is clearly entitled to the requested data the letter going onto say, quote this is a clear taerl breach of twitter's obligation under the merger agreement this follows musk tweeting last month he wouldn't move forward with the deal until he had more data on fake accounts. that was seen as a negotiating tactic since the stock is well below the $54.20 he committed to pay. now it's just under $39. if he does back out, he could be force to pay $1 billion break up fee but twitter could see musk

to push the deal through he did waive the right to due diligence that buyers typically perform. we did reach out to twitter for comment and have not heard back yet. >> we know you'll keep us posted thank you. still the come, we will sit down with the first ceo and amazon stock isn't the only split at the company one top exec is leaving as well. "tech check" is just getting started. your projects done right .

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reversing all of its friday losses and then some after initiating its first stop split in 23 years. the marks the first time amazon has traded below four digits since october of 2017. the company approved the split back in march saying it would

give employees more flexibility equityabilities. dave clark who has led the company massive delivery operation since 1999 announced his departure on friday which takes effect on july 1st the stock at a buy saying given online penetration stands at only 15 to 20% it's margins could see record improvement next year. amazon is not the only e-commerce name thinking of splitting this summer. tomorrow shopify voters will vote on their 10-1 split it will be interesting but shopify, that split says stock would be about $35 a pop which is much lower than the median share price in the s&p that really goes to show that some of these splits were

thought of during much better times, if you're along in the market >> true. let's focus in on amazon for a moment this is really an important moment i think for andy. i don't want to say defining moment but both of these guys have left as ceo world wide consumer, jeff wilke over a year ago kind of on par with andy and now david clark took that position, he's leaving both of those guys have been around at amazon since 1999. just a little less than andy how does he handed their departures who gets those jobs? you have to do that in way so you don't get people who get passed over leaving.

they are caught in these cross currents still believing that's the future. what happens next, who gets elevated and what the message is going to be important again especially as that business is going through a bit of a transition as we head the break, check out affirm we mentioned it before shares lower this morning. they have been cut this half over the last year down about 75% year to date. is the space still investable?

we'll talk to somebody who thinks so. affirm ceo will join us. don't go away. plap ♪ ♪ women have to overcome more obstacles to reach the top.

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. welcome back here is what's happening at this hour jet blue is raising its buy out offer to 31.50 per share and break up fee to $350 million for spirit airlines after its initial offer was rejected last month. jet blue is sweetening terms of the deal in hopes of beating out a competing offer from frontier airlines

revlon is in talks with lenders and attempting to avoid bankruptcy ahead of several billion of debt deadline the cosmetic maker has lost popularity among influencer brands the company narrowly escaped bankruptcy in 2020 starbucks founder saying the next ceo will come from outside the company. he does not plan the stay on longer term. jon, back to you thank you. let's turn now to fin tech the buy now, pay later category facing head winds in the volatility this year a slower company let's turn to a pioneer in

fintech. inverss went from super excited in buy now, pay later to very scared let's talk kwhast happening. has anything surprised you about the quick shifts in this company environment. >> thank you for having me i've learned the last three years to be surprised by nothing. i think part ofmy job is to make sure the company can navigate and the reality of the business is is proven extraordinarily well

affirm is doing great. the market will have this over time >> are you cutting costs are you cutting employees? a competitor announced some cuts and you said some months ago, several quarters ago that when downturn or slow down hits, that's when we're going to see who is wearing a swim suit when the tide goes out. how does it look >> exactly good memory. we're not cutting employees. we are very confident that our strategy of growing responsibly and making sure it's strong is the right path.

that's what the turns are all about. >> you do paint a different picture than some of your competition. the result showed in your quarterly earnings max, what separates the firm from other buy now, pay later offerings? is it the technology or the algorithm that's different can every one do this with the same risk? how can investors and consumers want to use this offering tell the winners from the losers? >> obviously i'm biassed thank you for asking the question i think vast majority of the people talking about it just lump the entire category into a single budget. that's just lazy affirm is very different from the very beginning we said doesn't matter if it's a trsix year transaction or four year transaction, you have to look at the person's capability of paying back what they borrowed if they can, you should lend them money and if they not, you have to compassionately decline

them over extending consumers can act opposite of what it's going to do especially in downturn. our job is to give consumers back their spending power back but only with the ability to get repaid. this whole built to be for all parts. >> right max, what you're saying is your technology has allowed you to be a bit more selective i asked the same question to sofi ceo about month ago i said what makes sofi less risky. he said it came down their diversification. they offered a number of different products

not just lentding he also said having the bank charter was a real advantage because they can use deposits the fund their loans does affirm need a bank charter. we have been in touch with our partners with which is excellent yields on really good terms. they continue to work with us. i look at things like regulatory decisions. a product choice -- if one day affirm was to offer a product feature that requires a bank charter, that's what we'll have to pursue now. we're able to conduct our business that's what we have been through. >> macx, talk to us about affirm's ambitions and strategic position in kind of shopping enablement kind of velocity of the consumer

experience, removing friction. we have seen fast go under which is trying to do that accelerated check out. bolt is having trouble you guy, part of what you're doing is put that whole simple shopping experience inside the app and that's in a way different from what you're doing financially but i guess it also is part of the problem that you're solving for your customers and partners how much are you leaning into that in this period or how will that will reflected in your results? >> it's a good partner that the company that knows where their boundaries are we partner very closely with companies like shopify and walmart and amazon our job is to give consumers their spending power a lot of departments i mentioned are in the business of improving transaction for goods that use their platform that's where we intersect.

our job is to make sure that consumers who can and feel secure they have the capacity to taper it a consumer says i need the buy something and i'm not clear how i will pay for it now with cash. every one of these relationships are all about helping our share consumers conduct transactions safely >> it helps them conduct transactions but does it help their credit how do you respond to the argument that buy now, pay later is all downside and no upside. it's very difficult to build credit with this tool. if you slip up, that's likely to have a negative effect

we also said, we will ultimately furnish the industry jargon for delivering information back to the credit bureaus about your repayment or non-repayment to build your credit history which is really important to us. we see markets something that we signed up for long time consumers. in good times that's great we'll see if they can make it. >> tide is moving fast max, thanks for joining us >> thank you for having me throughout the month of june we are celebrating pride month

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taking on debt to do so. market res main volatile, so dos the company's financial future what does it mean going forward? >> that's right. micro strategy can be a tough company the size up. it's a software firm but a bitcoin holding company in both these businesses impact the balance sheet and the bot dom line the software business has been around for 32 years. it was co-founded by ceo michael sailor one of the most vocal backers of crypto. it's profitable data analystics compete with the likes of ibm and oracle analysts value it around a billion dollars. two years ago it started using the software proceeds to buy

more bitcoin microstrategy holds roughly 129,000 tripling its holdings to buy all of that bitcoin, micro strategy has taken on $2.4 billion in debt. the majority is through convertible notes which convert into stocks. at the maturity date that's total 1.7 billion. at about a 0% to 0.75% interest rate then you have half a billion dollars of senior secured notes a at a interest ate. the cfo called out a potential margin call on that last loan. fear around that plus bit coin price weakness hitting the stock in recent weeks.

traders are looking for micro strategy some see a trading at a discount of the value of the software business and all of its crypto holdings guys >> for more head over to cnbc cnbc cnbc.co cnbc.com/cryptoworld president biden set the wave any tariffs. that's part of boost new energy. tech check back in a moment. joel, since kansas, we've taken our own path. we've never done what everyone else did.

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citi naming the company the top semi pick. bullish on the stocks defensive nature, it's not the only one seeing the value in adi. harr hari ramanan joined us last

week >> shut downs, shortages we think this is an interesting rare for us to be looking at semiconductors we believe that semiconductors will be the staples of the next decade in that regard, we like companies like analog devices and companies that feed into the semiconductor eco system >> shares of analog devices out performing just 5% on the year >> speaking of chips, check out shares of on semii spiking on the news the stock will be added to the s&p 500 up about 5.5%. we'll be right back after this

after a stalemate in congress lawmakers could finally be making headway on a federal privacy bill we have more on how the tech industry is reacting ylan. >> big tech is getting behind it to create a framework for data collection and privacy apple's ceo tim cook tweeted we've long needed federal comprehensive legislation and i'm pleased to see the growing momentum behind it and called it a fundamental human right and pledged to work for the strongest bill possible. industry tech net whose members include zoom, airbnb and meta says it's a sign that both sides of the aisle are committed to action and willing to compromise on key issues. one of the those controversial has been preemption. under the bill federal law would

preempt those in the states but with exceptions for things like civil rights, consumer protection and from many provisions in california and would allow individuals to sue tech companies, but not until four years after the bill is adopted. there would be new limits on data collection especially for children and the ftc would be authorized to enforce those rules. now, three of the four leaders of the house and senate commerce committees are sponsoring this bill they called it the best opportunity to pass a federal privacy law in decades the hold-out, though, is the democratic chair woman in the senate, maria cantwell who wants to strengthen the private right of action and i'm told she's working on her own version of the bill and wants to hold a mock-up in the senate sometime this month back over to you >> if you can give us your analysis, ylan, of what you're hearing. if we compare what's on the table to gdpr in europe. how big is this and would it

cause companies to have to do things beyond what they did with gdpr >> yeah, this could be pot potentially a real change for companies and one thing they have been complaining about, right now there is such a patchwork of legislation we are still a long ways to seeing this bill, if it gets passed, jon, so all those details will matter, the horse trading only now beginning but certainly industry says we'd rather have one standard than 51. >> a little lobbying going on. ylan, thank you. highlights weighing to protect your investments here's sharon epperson on one way to edge against nflation. >> reporter: here's a tip for your money, nour queue turay consider boosting short-time savings with i bonds. the rate rises and falls with the consumer price index right now that rate is 9.62% for

six months you could purchase up to $10,000 in i bonds each year directly from the government at treasurydirect.gov you can't cash them in for one llg thnd there is a penalty for seinwiin five years. for cnbc i'm sharon epperson

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welcome back shares of chinese ride hailing transportation company didi surging although it's still well off its highs. that's after reports that regulators are ending probes t "the wall street journal" saying authorities could lift a ban on didi adding new users as early as next week and reinstate the app in domestic app stores all comes two weeks after their shareholders voted to delist from the new york stock exchange while we have ongoing cybersecurity reviews even with today's move that stock is still down about 80% over the past year and you can see the move in didi providing a boost for the entire chinese tech sector we've been talking about it a bit. >> it's fading because you got to wonder how much value was destroyed over the last few months when it wasn't able to operate, of course, didi will look to list in hong kong. our one more thing, look at

these shares headed lower after the merger agreement and ana plan, instead of 66 per share according to them the memo, the firm adding those could have resulted in certain closing conditions not being satisfied and also seeing a move lower in salepoint. another thioma bravo merger. >> getting a slightly lower price, slightly. >> sounds familiar >> elon musk certainly hopes so but i don't know if 3 bucks is what he's looking for from 51.20. not quite the same >> he might want move. we have kramer in the house. very excited to have him and he's got a great lineup. not just today but throughout

the whole week >> definitely looking forward to that and as we've mentioned, major indices are quite a bit higher this morning, i think off the highs and tech in particular has been pretty strong, growth tech, we mentioned didi. a alibaba up too. >> i'm scott wapner. why some say it's poised to tinge. we'll debate and discuss that the road ahead with the investment committee joining me joe terranova, jon najarian, shannon saccocia and sarat sethi. we cut gains in half and somebody may be due to the ten i have year working its way to