discounted already but they're good balance sheets and growing dividends. >> assuming you think the economy averts the worst of the down turn. >> assuming we have a slowdown and the stocks do well >> your favorite name in the group. >> morgan stanley is my favorite name >> good to have you both here. the exchange is now. i'll see you in the afternoon. >> thank you and thank you, scott and welcome to the exchange. here's what's ahead. the big news we're watching. apple developers conference picking up right now everything important apple announces as am vesters look for something, anything that might turn the stock around. stocks losish most of their gains. the nasdaq turning negative. are the markets too volatile or should you put money to work oil is up there 120 bucks a

barrel gasoline prices record highs and china ramping back up. how much higher will energy costs go let's begin more with the topsy turfy markets. >> we've seen positive and the brief flash in the negative territory. if you look at the highs of the session, go through and cycle which ones we ecan focus on o. we'll do the dow today it's up 350 plus points at the highs of the session and we trimmed it down towards the negative territory 22,004 -- and just about half of 1% gains there similar for the nasdaq composite which is an out performer earlier this morning up 52 points so, again, drifting lower a little bit of steam coming out here one key reason why is we're watching a push higher in

interest rates specifically the long-term one the bench mark there now we're above 3% 3.03 the last for the note yield. getting a push back above. that highs here in the course of the last month or so it was roughly a hair below 3.17% keep an eye on that level. we're at 3.03. that's what traders are watching now, chinese internet a focus for the volatility and the reason why is the uber of china if you will is up 37% believe it or not at the highs of the session, we're up 67% that stock was again over $3.10. some of the regulatory crackdowns may be easing a bit that's to pinduoduo. and the big etf that tracks the

chinese internet stocks up 5%. and we like to put things in context. at $2.52, just take a look at where it was over the course of the past year. gd global was actually an $18 stock in june of last year it's all the way up, 36% to a whopping $2.51 that's not a chart you like. >> the weight and heft of the chinese government comes down, it comes down hard >> thank you very much your big money corporate headline right now, the world wide developers conference is kicking off in person. ceo tim cook set to present the latest versions of software and maybe a few other surprises. covac is at apple's headquarters with more of what we can expect. steve, what are you looking for? >> tim cook took the stage in person for the first time in over two years, since the

pandemic began hundreds of people are here. this is the first time appleal's really had one in this way inviting a select group to witness the prerecorded presentation in person we saw tim cook and his deputy pump up the crowd. software updates for all the mage aer platforms, iphone in particular and what i'm lookling for is clues that hint at the headset we're looking to further in the fall >> the wwdc. we have a beg day of nonsme -- announcements about our latest tech nalg. >> is there a one more thing moment, steve? >> is there going to be ea one more thing probably nothing ground breaking

other than updates everyone is looking forward to the headset. but new laptops leakly running the it new chaps apple is using and the final nail in the coffin for intel is they're going to fully transition away from intel most likely today. >> far outside cupertino apparently, steve. new macs that's nice. they don't seem to generate the same love a new phone might. do you expect buzz around a new computer aren't pcs a thing of the past >> the mac has been reinvigorated over the last two years. part of it is the transition away from intel. that allows them to do things the intel macs couldn't do before quarter over quarter in the mac business it may not seem like the most

exciting thing but it's a huge part of apple's business now >> we'll let you get in and do your thing thanks very much so, let's stick with apple and really dig into the stock. because it has not fallen too far from the market tree and we don't mean that in a good way. check out this, dare we say, random but interesting nugget. they've underperformed the s&p 500 past five days, month, and year that courtesy of our friends despite head winds, the next guest naming his out perform rating ever core isi fundamental research analyst what are you listening and looking for from the conference today? >> for us, it's going to be incremental software updates is there one more thing they

anonsed? anything on nfl sunday night ticket and i think generally expecting a lot of software updates. but the one more thing would be the rbr and -- >> does it move -- i want to get the football in a second does the software stuff move the needle on the revenue side, the earnings side? >> the only thing that moves the needle dramatically is the iphone, in fairness. but it enhances the stickiness of the ecosystem and how much we want to stay within apple's wall gardens and keep responding more money. it doesn't directlyfect the number but it's part of the whole ecosystem. >> football. that is a whole different ball game in a way, i mean. that would be billions of

dollars. huge attention in national espn will lead with that story or be near the top of it would that be ea good spend for apple in your view, i mean >> it's a great question i think a lot of companies are starting to find profitability in their business models, right? sports, would bea way to enhance profitability, right trying to do what netflix and disney were doing may end in the same place, which is some optimal profit levels. sports may be one way to get around that. >> $2.10 price target. come down 18% this year. a lot of concerns, not just with apple but across technology. the evaluations and earnings you obviously view it undervalued. so, you must be bullish on earnings you're not worried about a

consumer-led economic slowdown >> so far, yes will inflation suffer more than demand so far demand is very well and they mentioned in the report rather than the can demand side. they assume they can keep hitting the number they're supposed to. and if you believe that valuation, it should be worth more or sustain the one point right now. >> i'll ask you a very slow question get a drink of water if you have it there if we get the football play, does that pop-the stock? is there something else that could pop the stock today on this conference specifically

>> nfl sunday night ticket would help the stock anything to look for that would be incrementally positive. >> thank you very much we'll let you get back to watching the conference. thank you. no doubt some of you out there in tv and radioland are asking why do i care about apple's new software anyway? if it includes more limits on ad targeting, could be another gut punch on companies trying to make money on ads. part two of ad apocalypse? >> pretty much or perhaps not quite as bad but close. apple could once again throw a wrench in the likes of meta and snap to narrowly target ad said on the platforms the operating system could

prevent fingerprinting it's a process of tracking users based on browsers to better target 5ds by expanding an apple program called private relay, that's apple's way of hiding ip addresses, apple could not only restrict-ability of these platforms to target ads but could create opportunity for more opportunity in the ad miss business the stocks most at risk is pinterest and snap but the massive amount ofdate -- morgan sanly write withing, quote, a a oelt ban on fingerpr fingerprin fingerprinting kaegs and we would mot expect-ban as large a

the ikpa which epected a at rubugz and targeting. this as it faces criticism for collecting a cut of in app purchases. it's stressing the value it offers in protecting consumers >> i don't want to use the term "at war" given what's going on in the world right now but they are going after the facebooks and bgoogles. with a unique take on ads. it's a privacy play. other companies are angry with them are we going to get. >> into a biefricated ad world is it going to be ads, no ads based on what you choose and pay? >> i think we're seeing google and apple both reckon with

challenges to their app stores but what's interesting to me is we look at the tech giants, we're increasingly seeing apple verses meta. or the company formerly known as facebook not only are they head-to-head when it comes to the ad-targeting issue because meta was most impacted by the last operating system change that limited the ability to target ads. and you're going to have appleal introduce some sort of ar vr headset. we expect something from them and that's going to be apple's platform and facebook meta has the oculous platform they're inkraesingly going head-to-head and apple is defining itself as being pro privacy and wanting to protect consumer privacy on the other hand, they're throwing darts at meta for not having done enough to protect their consumers. interesting battle that's only going to get more interesting. >> and multiit 10s of billions

of dollars of market apple saying you can undo a sent i message. you ever fire off an errant message? now you can uncoo it >> i have. >> who hasn't. >> this idea with twitter, you want to undo tweets. and this is saying you can rescind an email we've all tried to find an email and delete it before it's read i'm sure that will beappealing this is part of the big software focus today. >> big software focus. thank you. we are just getting going "the exchange. "is the art of the deal becoming a lost art look at the staggering stats that puts this into perspective and brings-latest in-bi out rate and natural gas creeping in on double digits.

so, with how can you get in on the energy price we have three key plays in the space. and let's get a quick check on markets. markets briefly went negative. we're flatlining right now it's the battle between the china reopen and inflation and interest rate story on the other side hey lily, i need a new wireless plan for my business,

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welcome back to "the exchange." so far ipos are a no go. pricing is down 80% year over year pricing is down 70% verses last year nevertheless, one takeover target keeps getting sweeter offers for more, let's bring in phil with the latest on what is turning out to be one of the biggest battles in history, at least for an airline and then weal with get a look at what bankers say about the return of mna. this spirit thing is unbelievableable >> and i don't think it's fgoin to end anytime soon. today jeff lou came out and said

we have an even sweeter offer than over the last coupleal of week withes. here is the latest offer made from jet blue to spirit. it call cans for a $350 reverse break a up fee a that's $150 more in addition jetblue says we'll pay spirit shareholders $1.50 a share, one-time dividend payment the day they approve this deal tla that's shareholder appeal. keep in mind, we're just over two months since it made its first bid for spirit and it's made a couple now that spirit has said no, we're going to pass in favor of the deal from 41 tier when we talk to robin hayes this morning, he still thinks jetblue can get this done. >> i think as time goes on, more

and more people are understanding this and saying yes, it can get done >> let's see what happens with spirit airlines. there is a vote scheduled to happen by friday some of the shareholders may have voted but the deadline is friday on whether or not to approve the deal they have signed off on with frontier. so, that deal, the deadline is friday for approval. we'll see if that happens as you take a look at shares of spirit, as well as we're going to take a look at frontier and jet blue. keep in mind that last week glass-lewis recommended the deal be approved by spirit shareholders bottom line is we'll see what happens come friday. by the way the spirit board is eval ya evaluating the latest offer. do say the say let's engage in nef

negoelgsiations? >> there's so much interest because this is one of the few airlines left to buy there's not a lot of other ways to grow. but you have an alaska, to a less lesser extent, a hawaiian. is any other airline in play >> i don't think so. alaska has shown no appetite to expand at this point hawaiian doesn't bring to the table or spirit and hawaiian it's not a combination that makes sense at this point. this is either going to happen with spirit and frontier or spirit and jetblue the doj may look at whatever deal is approved and may say doesn't meet muster and then we don't see any merger >> be interesting if that was the case after all of this that shareholder vote on tuesday. is the race for spirit a sign that more mna is on the way? what wall street is saying about the second half of the year after what was a lousy first half of the year

so far it's not over yet >> and i think bankers are optimistic the second half of the year would be better but first half of the year has been marked by delayed deals, broken deals this year has been a relativelyy tough one for ipos and debt issuance so far in 2022, we've seen more than 100 billion there worth of shutter transactions that's just in the u.s. alone. according to data polls for cnbc in the year through june, june 2nd, 115 can companies pulled or postponed their ipos 51 companies withdrew their mergers and that doesn't include what's going on in spacs, which saw deals fall apart last week to take forbes public. bankers usually generate the bulk of their fees when it closes it's likely to effect the deal of some wall street firms. saying he was expecting

investment banking revenue to plummet 45% in the second quarter. but the qualitative comments from bank execs struck a slightly different tone. we sat down with ted pick who said the mna cycleal will jump start in the second half of the year >> taking a pause during cocan vid. i think board rooms and executives are ready to move they know supply chains have changed. they have a telescope out and saying we may need to make an acquisition given the new supply chains or need to make a sale. >> noting the, quote resilienc due to demand. so, we'll see if the rosier picture plays out in the months to come. >> there's another deal out there or at least an offer that's got a lot of attention.

elon musk trying to buy twitter. s stories a that he is pulling the bid. what's the latest twist we've got here >> there's certainly a lot of twists in this situation, brian. the stock price reaction would indicate investors aren't too excited about the prospect of the deal coming through, given the spread of where it's currently trading and where the deal is signed at. that said buyers remorse is not the same as if you just buy an item at the store and want to return it. even an item on sale, you can probably off load to someone on a second-hand site it looks like, given twitter's commitment to the deal and at the agreed upon price of 54.20 per share. i don't know if this will go

into litigation but i know delaware is quite nice this time of year. it could be one of those things where given the contentious aspect to the deal and what we're seeing right now, it's not just as simple as pay money and walk away. this would have to go to litigation if both guys are firm in musk wanting to get out and twitter wanting to maintain. >> and the stock's down. where are you going on your summer break no, a court house in wilmington. leslie picker. >> i've done it. it's kind of fun from a coverage standpoint i'm not going to lie >> lawsuits and credit cards thank you very much, leslie. appreciate it. still ahead, regulators are at odds with manufacturers over new rules on carbon emissions. what's at stake? you're going to hear prom-the

largest manufacturing association coming up. and take a look at the dow heat map. ibm leading the way. little league 15 down, 15 up and amgen the biggest laggard. how will this play out s such a , but i looked pretty hot... so hot. i mean the look on his face... face it! you really missed out on the best time... time of our lives. you really had to be there. when you're with amex, you always have a story to tell. it's never a question of if it's going to happen... it's when. ♪♪

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they actually earned negative an hour and a half ago. solar stocks, by the way, they're higher this after the boyden administration announced a two-year tariff exemption for solar panels made in cambodia and malaysia after a month-long probe investigating whether chinese solar producers were circumventing tariffs via the four countries now the announcement of the defense production act to promote manufacturing of solar panels we had a shortage of imports because of an investigation by the federal government which we resolved with the defense production act from the federal government you following all that is in the meantime, citi is out with a new note on semiconductors saying this is the down turn. naming an log devices though the top pick due to its defensive nature

they're all fractionally and here's another check on apple as had world kz develope conference >> i'm back. >> apple announcing buy now, pay later, which will work anywhere appleal pay is available and is look, i notice right away affirm was down 6% on this news. this is a mnew competitor for apple. and hen a --

>> after you send it, it will let you undo send. it takes it off the other person's phone you can't edit your tweets but you can edit your i messages >> i can't wait to anchor the exchange, i mean, worldwide exchange and then maria never knows. thank you very much. to tyler matheson for a cnbc news update. >> could undo a lot of trouble there, brian the headlines at the latest hour at least 12 people were killed and 38 injured this weekend in a series of mass shootings police are still searching for the people responsible outside a night club in tennessee and in a popular area of south philadelphia both shootings believed to have involved multiple gunman as residents continue to grapple with the aftermath of the elementary school shooting that killed 31.

all that and more tonight with shep smith mark milley said the u.s. will continue to provide, quote, significant support to ukraine, at the same time ukraine is recovering and working to identify the bodies of its soldiers killed at a steel plant in the now russian-occupied city of mariupol. new york governor cathy hochul is signing a series of gun-control bills into law it raises the minimum age to purchase assemiautomat aic weapon from 18 to 21 requires bullets to be micro stamped and outlaws the sale of bullet proof vest unless necessary for a person's job >> tyler, thank you very much. still ahead, oil hovering around 118 bucks a barrel. the next guest says do not expect prices to ce wn yte onomdoanimso he says the cycle could go on for five years

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welcome back we're going to tell you something you already know

energy prices are soaring. the aerj demand continues to out strip supply 57% this year, oil national average of gasoline continues to hit all-time highs, rising 26 cents in just one week $4.85. you'd love to pay $4.85. chi chinese eases covid restrictions natural gas is 9 bucks after raising on forecasts for hotter weather. natural gas may be the most important thing to watch in all of energy. because unlike oil, it is used to make hundreds of thousands of things chemicals, fertilizers, plastics, you name it. welcome back they set prices every month. they raise their price to asian sellers.

if china were to reopen, sputerring spitz and starts. if they fully reopen, what's that going to do to oil demand and prices >> great question. so, china's 14 million barlt a day consumer and probably taken a million barrels off the market you assume some of that has come back a little bit. but a million barrels a day adds to an already tight market they're trying to accelerate their economy and we may look at $120 a barrel and say it's cheap. something to fwhauchcluding the other things in the oil market and there's commentary about price pricing and gouging. it sounds like refining margins may have got to it a point that we're not going to see the price of gasoline go up as much, even

if oil prices rise the same. correct? >> i agree what we've seen is refining marge ans are actic like oil is at 150 aurl ready. it's been one of the tightest spots in this market as oil continues to go up, if it does, it's unlikely we see the same push upward in gasoline prices so, not to say that we won't see continued increases, but maybe not at the pace that we've been seeing over the last three, four, five months. >> what hasn't kept pace is the price of oil stocks. let's take a look that oih, which is an oil services etf they loom large in this. the last time oil was at this level, the oih was above a thousand dollars a share it's had good year but it's still at 300 one of these appears to be

grossly mispriced. either oil is too high or the oah is too low >> even if oil breaks by 20 bucks a barrel, it feels to us that we're going to see energy stocks continue to work. oil is signaling that these stocks are very, very cheap. and when you look at the macro dynamics, sure, oil may go from 120 to 100 but it's not going back to 60 with energy stocks like the oh and the -- these names are trading at, i think very attractive multiples on any forward looking estimates. energy remains too cheap 5% of the s and, for a part of the market that's now growing. in energy security, it's a bigger deal. the big fear is stocks have worked they have been the best for a

last couple of years butthy could be for the next couple of years as well. >> you're in the renewable am a energy capital in the world, a lot of people don't realize that what they can't do is be the raw material ingredient in fertilizer, plastics, chemicals, resins and things to make wind turbines how inflationary is $9 natural gas? >> we7 well, we're about to find out. the answer is it's going to show up in utility bills. it's going to show up in all of the things that you just mentioned in terms of products over the next your the answer is it's kind of been the sneaky commodity we've got the russia/ukraine situation that's elevated the visibility but natural gas at home is going to start to bite and that's going to happen

particularly as we come into winter next year natural gas is trading at 6 bucks natural gas is something we ve to keep watching >> a lot of utilities are not allowed to pass on the entire increase but they can pass on some or see prices double in uk and to the consumer. thank you very much. still ahead, can stocks go up, even if american money supply goes down barry nap is here on that and he's got, not six, but seven key t themes he's looking at right now. spelling b is happening right now. steve liesman is there with the excitement building. steve. >> we're about to start the adam smith division of the national economic challenge we have teams competing from all over the country when we come back, you are not

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welcome back what do we call this education inflation. more than 13,000 students joined to battle it out for the top spot steve liesman is standing by tliechb kick off the national competition. take it away >> we're about to begin the counsel of economic education competition for the adam smith division th these kids are not just smart, they're vernacky smart, i call it after a brutal series of elimination rounds are from san jose california, school from

honolulu, hawaii from maryland and finally, troy high school from troy, michigan. you guys are all winners to get this far but only one school takes them coveted crown of the biggest economic geeks in the country. question number one, please. what economic term describes slow growth, rising prices, and rising unemployment and what would be the best open market operation to reduce the inflation? i want to know the answer to this 20 seconds and five seconds mow and time >> harper school, what is your answer, please >> stagflation and sell bonds.

>> stagflation, sell bonds >> mt. heb aren are. >> stagflation and sell bonds. >> troy. >> stagflation, sell bonds >> that is the correctance aer everyone's got it correct this time [ applause ] >> okay. we're tied at one across the board going to question two. over to you, steve >> i think powell is listening question number two. consider a profit-maximizing natural monopolist producing in the relevant range what are the possible values for average total cost if marginal cost is $20? 20 seconds.

and five seconds to go time >> what is your answer, please >> less than 20. >> school. >> less than $20 >> mt. hebn are. >> less than $20 >> troy. >> less than $20 >> the correct answer is any value greater than $20 so, unfortunately, no one a got that correct >> and so we stay at ones across the board going to question three, steve >> this will be 22-question. if marginal cost is rising -- >> they all got it right in the first one. they all missed it you do one of these type of things if you want to continue to watch

on your second screen, go to youtube.com/cnbc television and tune into power lunch in the next hour. we're going to hear from the winners themselves that around 2:45 p.m. eastern time your next guest says do not believe the bears and maybe start buying where he's deploying his cash coming up.

♪ ♪ welcome back, everybody. stocks losing some of their earlier gains. they are higher across the board. the dow up 111 and the dow coming off ninth week losses in the past ten weeks and recession fears and inflationary pressures gripping the markets and the next guest has pundits sounding the alarm in this bear market says it's just wrong since the worst of the pain may be over, it's time to reduce cash and start buying in equities again let's bring in barry nabb of macro economics. basically all that the market has already reacted to probably 1.5% to 2% more fed tightening >> yes that's a fair way to characterize my view

we pretty much know what the fed policy path is for the balance of the year. they're going to go another couple of 50 basis point hikes and it probably slows down to 25 while they get to the maximum cap and balance sheet contraction and the fed policy path and the energy tal funds rate has generally been falling over the last three or four weeks or so, and the market got ahead of where the fed is goin . i think the market underestimates the impact on longer term rates and the fed is starting to wind down their mortgage-backed securities portfolio. in fact, you go back to steve's fed challenge and the previous segment, i would have given extra credit if any of the groups would have said sell mortgage-backed securities. >> not just sell bonds not sell treasurys, but sell mortgage-backed securities because that would help a lot in cooling off house inflation. >> fair point. that's actually where the fed's money goes and i want to have a

money supply for ten years, and m2 against the s&p 500 you can see money suspect ply goes up and stocks tend to go up i'm worried about the far-right side money supply starting to come down and how does the market go up, money supply comes down. >> i think it's important to realize that the actions of the treasury in 2021 and thus far in 2022 were far more impactful than the actions of the fed. last year the fed bought 1.4 trillion in treasurys and mortgage-backed securities, but the treasury unwound the least liquidity into the system to the tune of $1.8 trillion over the course of six or seven months, right? that's the account they hold at the fed. they stopped issuing treasury bills and that balance fell sharply and that caused a huge liquidity flood into the market and no coincidence when that was at its peak and march, april,

may and june when crypto went crazy and meme stocks went crazy and some of the money leaked out of the side and so far this year, they raised that balance and that account back up to $950 billion from something like 50 so they've already done far more than the fed's going to do through the balance of the year. that's the liquidity part of the story that already effectively we've had a qt at least in terms of overnight bank liquidity and reserves held at the fed have fallen by a trillion dollars from 4.43 to 3.3, but the fed's going to do is a much slower pace than that >> yeah. >> we've already had the liquidity shock. still big numbers and we'll get to your theme's next appearance. barry knapp, thank you very much. >> there is a new battle brewing over sec rules those pushing back the who, the why, next

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>> welcome back. new sec corporate climate rules sparking a backlash, and kristina partsinevelos joining us. >> the national manufacturing trade organization highlights the growing battle over the role of financial regulators in fighting climate change. the proposed climate rules would force detailed corporate filings on carbon emissions like the scope 1 and scope 2 you're seeing on your screen right now as well as climate-related business risk that the companies promised the national association of manufacturers say the rules are incredibly difficult to implement in such a short amount of time. >> a small manufacturer in this country spends about $35,000 per employee on compliance costs of record inflation and supply chain shortages and worker shortages, they simply can't afford to increase the cost of compliance >> but, investors are demanding

this environmental impact data and the companies will have to pay. the sec says the panel will raise the cost to $420,000 per year for a smaller, publicly listed firm and $40,000 for a larger publicly listed firm and drop off once they start to get the hang of the accounting and the compliance rules means companies face a new risk reflecting how they've gone from a public affairs and marketing challenge to a core element of stake holder capitalism. >> that's a lot of money >> probably a lawyer a lawyer and maybe an accountant >> how many gained and maybe lost >> this is specific to the manufacturing world. there's almost a million job openings and manufacturing just for the month of april it was the argument made by the president jay, they were strained and it was 437,000, you have this, plus compliance rules and the cost head's up. >> everybody in congress is a

lawyer by training, they've never worked in manufacturing. maybe they should go to the plant floor and check it out >> it's a good opportunity for future children, right >> kristina partsinevelos. [ speaking foreign language >> that does it for the exchange kelly is back tomorrow so the day is saved "power lunch" with tyler starts right now. ♪ ♪ all right, everybody welcome to "power lunch. i am tyler matheson. apple's next chapter making a push to disrupt the buy now, pay later sector and the announce made just min ago and the annual developer's conference and we'll have a look at apple's future as device sales slow and the stock is slumping with a lot of other stocks, by the way, and the financial exchange power player and the cebo ceo launching a throwback to in-person trading as more exchanges