ware, they could protect you and they do a good job and then i'm trying to look for a bottom tor trullio they said they won't have a good quarter but the 2023 would be profitable so you have to measure whether a company that does really well when they get rid of third party advertising, when they get rid of the stuff that you hate that follows you on the web, they should do better but i have to find out whether they will. >> uber, and lyft and snowflake. i have to run. >> what do you have to run for >> i'm already over. melissa is ready to go. >> it is "overtime." and now it is triple overtime. i'll see you tonight at 6:00 "fast money" starts now. penalty time right now on "fast," the price of gas skyrocketing. the average price of a gallon now closing in on $5 wti hovering near $120 barrel and russian production is collapsing at same time china

just restarting after its long lockdown and shares of eli lilly on the move, poing positive results for two drugs involving obesity and later on five, seven, eight, i've lost track in the bot battle royal between elon musk and twitter. we have the details. and a new development the state of texas getting involved in this fake account fight. this is melissa lee, in the heart of times square, on the the desk tonight, tim, karen, and jeff mills, we start off with a new record for commodity prices the bloomberg spot index hitting an all-time high and wheat jumping more than 5% and nat gas settling at the highest price since august of 2008 while crude and gasoline take a breather there are a number of factors that could push prices higher from here. parts of china coming back

online and russian production falling amid the war with ukraine and here at home, the pump is closing in on $5 a gallon add to all of this the ten-year yield going above 3% again today and you have a bunch of factors challenging the market today. >> and mellage on friday we had that unemployment account people thought there was a goldilocks sort of thing but i keep seeing headlines about employment and we're at 40 year lows, back to the prepandemic levels we have a gdp, led by the consumer so i have a hard time squaring these sorts of things. with inflation and the cost of gas, we already had walmart and target tell us that inflation is hurting the consumer where consumer cred sit going up where unemployment is going up you saw the microsoft headline and what elon musk had to say last week. it is happening in large parts of economy, we're not being

tracked by publicly traded companies that we talk about so to me that is something that i think we'll be spending more time talking about over the next couple of months and if the one thing that a lot of these strategists are as they say if the demand is still here, i think this is the thing that changes the demand over the next few months. >> i don't think demand is drying up overnight. we heard that saudi aramco is raising because of demand coming out of roasia and that is the dynamic demand we don't understand and like iron ore and some of the steel derivatives from there but when i look at the commodity complex, i think this is about supply where some of the biggest players in the world, we'll talk about this with paul sankey, as you get into copper and some of the precious medals, but i don't think there is enough supply and i think you have a dynamic where your supply constrained. i've talked about this for a couple of years there is not

enough investment in the mining sector and in the oil and gas sector and that is what is going on here. so clearly the consumer is going to be, i think demand constrained and the inflation dynamics around gas are a big deal i just don't think that is killing it off right now and i think the commodity trade for investors still has a lot left to do. >> killing economic growth off is that what you mean? >> yeah. the demand destruction that comes with the buying power eroded at pump or the store, et cetera. >> karen, at what point do you think a consumer is going to pay less for x, y and z and my investment in whatever retailers or consumer discretionary stock might be threatened because of consumer has to spend more on other things the consumer is in great shape people won't doubt that for that moment in time but their spending may shift within their wallet. >> right well i think you need to bifurcate the consumer there is a consumer that gas and food prices and rent is a really

big portion of their disposable income and so we saw it with walmart and target, they're going to see that consumer is pinched however there are other consumers that are not that are, you know, getting higher wages and they feel like they've made money in their home, although that is plateauing and that consumer is still around and spending money. it is interesting to me, some of the data for commodities like copper, lumber really more, is really has rolled over right. and i don't know that -- when i look at something like a mosaic or a cf, i'm surprised they're not higher and it makes me wonder if there is an anticipation of food rolling over i don't know and so it is sort of a difficult time because inflation is here it is really high. we'll see on friday. it is 8.2 we're looking at i have started to think it is peaking, right so, i don't know dan is giving me the evil eye.

but dab gives me the evil eye all of the time. >> you know i'm a big dummy and i suspect it is peaking. >> those are two different things. >> right fair enough. but i think there is plenty of examples when we've seen the huge spikes whether it is lumber or other things that have rolled off. and my point was i wasn't talking about commodity, i was talking about consumer demand and once the housing situation starts to roll off, there will be let demand for whirlpool washers and dryers. >> but there are more people buying those washers ab dryers the wages are higher and outstripping inflation and that is part of -- >> so we're starting to see a slow down in unemployment and that means wage growth will slow down. >> and i think the unemployment rate -- >> it is going to do down the next couple of months in my view we saw the last number, the only reason it was saved, less unemployment, is because of the

participation rate look, i think employment is going to be a problem. i don't think it is in the next couple of months and it is the biggest part of the inflation profile. the wage gains is not necessarily checked into the parts of economy that i think it's going to stay longer. >> jeff, where do you fall on all of this? >> so i hate to agree with dan but i guess i'm going to have to here looking at some of the business confidence data, i think is super interesting. because you have business confidence down and that is part of the reason why you are seeing slower wage growth and you combine that with what i do agree is peaking inflation but still high and that means less purchasing power for the consumer and i think you've seen that in some of the credit data. it looks like the consumer is going to binge on the pandemic and that can't last forever and then you'll see that in consumer demand and then earnings and that is why i keep hammering on the cyclicals. oif pointed out the transports

that they've broken, the uri, the deere and vol cans, and they have broke undown and looking at alcoa or u.s. steel, they're teetering on support so i think that is part of the dynamic that we're talking about. >> it is a corollary to that thought that the commodity trade will roll over >> i feel like there are some specifics to the commodity trade. because to tim's point, you have supply/demand issues that are not going to change any time soon supply was determined many, many quarters ago in terms of investment sand production so you're going to have constraints supply and you have the russia issue and i do think china coming back online may offset some of the demand issues that i'm talking about. china is going to lean into growth from a monetary policy standpoint, they want to see growth between now and the end of the year and that keeps oil prices elevated and a lost companies, whether you're talking about a chevron, an ex

r on, do down the list, they're prices are high, they're valuations are not so i think you could still play in that space. even though their technically extended if they pull back, i would buy that weakness. >> let's get pmore on this with paul sankey at sankey research great to see you >> hi. >> the last time we talked to you, china's lockdowns were still firmly in place and now they're largely lifted if you thought things were tight before, it seems like it should be even higher today based on the lockdowns coming off. >> yeah, i mean, i think if you remember maybe a couple of times back post the ukrainian invasion we said 110 to 150 this summer for a barrel of brent. and as you know, we dip down toward 100 at one point. but again now firmly back in that range and with china coming back in, and i think the other very

bullish thing here is russia has continued selling oil. so we haven't lost the russian crude. we've lost the russian products but the crude has stayed elevated as has the natural gas. and we haven't had china in so the other setup is still very bullish and challenging for all of your inflation concerns, i have to say. >> hey, paul, it is tim. i think brent or crude, depending on what you're looking at, is going to 140 at least and i hear this whole dynamic with russia from terms of their production falling off swing capacity, that is the marginal movement in the oil price from here. >> well, as you know, for the past decade we relied on u.s. growth and u.s. is not growing an that is super significant in natural gas markets right now. we're somewhat pondering whether bitcoin mining may be effecting the u.s. gas production numbers but u.s. natural gas is as you know is up $9 from btu and i was discussing it with a major

client today and he was asking, do you seriously think we could go to $20 btu and brokers would be using a forecast in the next year so there is risk, enormous risk to the upside in the commodity markets and we're not seeing demand destruction, further to your comments about walmart and et cetera, we're not seeing significant oil demand destruction globally or natural gas demand destruction and so the prices remain under significant upward pressure. >> paul, it is karen let me first congratulate you. you've made a call long marathon and short rivan which was fantastic on both sides. i'm going to put you on the spot what trade would you have, like rivy an at the time. >> rivy an got down to its catch or balance sheet and bounced back up when we put the trade back on. the one i'm talking about is

generally long oil, short tech or short nasdaq and we've been talking just out of interest that both exxon and nvidia have about the same market cap. the problem with nvidia is it is a very good company with a good ceo so i don't want to hate on it too much, but the theme of multiples compressing will continue to favor the oils over basically the nasdaq and other interesting one to me is a great company like microsoft if you look at its share of the s&p 500 earnings, it is the same level as it was five or six years ago. the entire move was multiple expanse. so if we get into a rising interest rate and rising cost of capital market, the very good conditions could continue to go down whereas you said something like exxon, i just checked next year's earnings, it is forecast to make $10. i think it could make $14. and the stocks that are at $100. so it is time tens an earnings number that looks too low.

>> paul, great to see you to get your thoughts and your pairs trade. thank you. in case you heard it and thought you heard wrong, paul did say one reason why nat gas is so elevated may be the bounce back in bitcoin mining i have to do a double take but that was an interesting dynamic there. jeff mills, what do you think? if oil and energy prices are remaining elevated, you know, that is a real drag on the consumer we may have hit peak we've heard this before. peak is great. but what happens after peak? that is the problem? >> yeah, right, peak is one thing. but what is inflation going to look like going forward and it is unlikely that prices will come down to any large degree. so, yes, that is going to continue to be an issue. and i think for all of the reasons that we just pointed out, oil remains elevated and that is a good thing for a lot of the stocks that are trading at pretty low multiples. chevron is one example, we just talked about exxon but all-time high prices

but 11, 12 times forward and potential upside to earnings, we just talking about and so there is value here and agree in the sense that i've been talking about legging into quality growth and i think that is probably a good trade between now and the end of year. but, look at some of the charts right now. i think to say that this is more than kind of an oversold bounce or a technical bounce, it might be a bridge too far if you're talking about the very short-term semiconductors, right back to that downward sloping 50-day moving average nvidia and spot the same thing so we're at difficult technical levels so i'll be very interested to see how some of the growth names perform over the next few weeks >> yeah and we mentioned at the top, the ten-year yield going back above 3%. that is certainly threw some cold water on what had been what could have been construed a market rally. >> 321 is the high from november 8th and we have challenged that a couple of times. so really do look like we're

pushing to that thresh level and the dlrl dollar is going higher. and between the nrds and the s&p, that is at major long-term support if you're looking at different places where even apple has crossed over the 200 day. we haven't seen that kind of a bearish cross in apple outside of covid lows. but since 2018 so these are things that to me and just quickly energy, energy is over weight, that should be concerning it and it is a great thing for energy because it is 4.7% of the s&p and i think it could be a lot more. >> just paul mentioned microsoft and you just mentioned the dollar and we had that preannouncement and we talked about it a lot last week but it is interesting, here is a stock that is going to guide in a couple of months or a month and a half or so for their fiscal 2023 and the first quarter of the year and they inked out a bit of the bad news and i wonder if they take down the full year guidance again coming and talking about demand. a company expected to grow earnings in sales 13% in this

out year, trading about 25 times. that is expensive. so if that move, if we look at a percentage of the share of the s&p 500 earnings, has been multiple expansion, well then you could make the case where microsoft should maybe trade, i don't know, 18, 19 times in a difficult demand environment and that is what is happened in apple, apple was trading at 28 times expected earnings growth and about 8% and that has come in because the price has come in and earnings have not yet and we're going to see that in the next two months. >> it is an interesting time cross currents and all of the inflation makes you think that the fed has go to stay hawkish, hawkish, hawkish and when we do see them hawkish, the market likes that. when i see per flexing >> feel like the next couple of weeks that the fed should let up -- >> i feel like it is hawks on parade. >> we want so see the fed more hawkish and that is a fine that they could be more hawkish because the economy will --

>> i felt like brainerd was very hawkish. and generally it is continued to pound the hawk call or whatever that is. whatever hawks say. >> it is hard to gain this out so to speak because the fed could be hawkish and then we >> more people working >> that is joblessness double negatives >> yeah. more people working and people get sort of happy about that but that is -- we need to see that slow down >> as a by product. >> of what the fed is trying to do so in terms of figuring out what the market reaction would be, i don't know you tell me something. i don't know if i could -- i can't gets guess anything. i'm not a market participant. >> we do the guessing and you seem to know what you're talking about. >> it is a difficult thing to game out. >> and i'll just say quickly and dan brings this up and maybe he's not saying this, but one of the things microsoft and apple has an issue with, you could

prorate their growth over the next ten years you can't do that. at some point their 20% of the u.s. economy the large numbers dictated that they can't grow at that rate even though that is what we want to think for the last years. >> jeff mills, do you think we have another shoe to drop, talking about microsoft and demand in the coming quarter that they're going to report. >> i 100% agree that is the issue. you have not seen that-e contract or that denominator contract this is a number of weeks ago, b.k. brought this up, three smartphone producers reduced their coming quarter and what does that say for apple. i think you will see a contraction and it is a multiple above its average quite a bit so there is still probably more pain ahead for some of those stocks. >> coming up, here comes the sun. not only is the first recording it is a huge day for solar

stocks and eli lilly making positive headlines and we're checking up headlines and we're checking up next on "fast money" returns bak with thousands of rollbacks so you get everything you need to keep your summer rollin'. because when you save money, you can live better. ♪ ♪ ♪ (sha bop sha bop) ♪ ♪ are the stars out tonight? (sha bop sha bop) ♪ ♪ ♪ alexa, play our favorite song again. ok. ♪ i only have eyes for you ♪ ♪ in any business, you ride the line between numbers and people.

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check out eli lilly. finishing if the green but well off the highs. companien showing encouraging results for the obesity treatment. meg joining us with the details. >> melissa, this is a drug that eli lilly already has it approved for type 2 diabetes this is a trial in weight loss and people who don't have diabetes we already seen the top line results but the full results were published in the new england journal of medicine and presented over the weekend at a diabetes conference. on the highest dose, people lost an average of 23% of their body weight over 72 weeks that compares with 2.4% for folks on placebo and to put that in real terms, people weighed an average of about 230 pounds when they started this trial and on the high dose that equated to about 50 pounds of weight loss over the course of this trial you just don't see these types of results typically with obesity drugs from the pharma industries the new england journal of medicine published an editorial

saying it is remarkable that the magnitude of weight loss was similar to that of gastric bypass which raises the alternative for the treatment of obesity. this is a class of drugs that there is also one from novo nortis that improved the weight loss results we've been seeing and at the end of the april, that is when we saw the top line results from eli lilly and we did get more positive information in the full set of results. this will potentially compete, although they do need to apply for fda approval and the next hurdle is getting insurance to pay for it mel. >> are there safety -- the problem with past treatments, are the safety concerns and the -- the side effects. >> yeah, absolutely. the safety concerns and then just really it didn't work that well here we saw a gi issue they were typically characterized as mild to

moderate and transient in the beginning when you start treatments they didn't seem to they binges that caused discontinuation from the drug but there are certain things to think about. >> and how much do the populations overlap in terms of this drug being used in a diabetic population and a population that is not zidiabetc and overweight and the migration of those people becoming diabetic and i'm wonder if there is overlap there and so thereafter the market for the drug may not be as big as one might think. >> yeah, there are certainly an overlap and actually one of the additional data points that we saw is that the drug in this trial in weight loss were reversing pre-diabetes for most of the people taking it. but to give you a sense of the potential size just in obesity, according to bmo, $6 billion in peak sales forecast for just obesity, lee rink has estimated $14 billion total for the drug

so you could see how that is breaking down. >> it is karen thanks for the story do you know if obesity on its own, why is that harder to get a prescription for there is an article in the times about they'll reimburse for a diabetic but not for an obese person why is that? >> well there is a whole controversy over obesity being a disease, should it be just treated with lifestyle interventions, a lot of big conversations happening about that and the big question has been what are the outcomes does this lower your risk of heart disease, of chronic kidney disease and other outcomes so there is a question, will there need to be sort of those kind of cardiovascular benefits proven from a weight loss drug before insurance will pay for it or will insurers say the benefits can be seen just in lowering weight and we will reimburse for it >> meg, thank you. meg tirrell. >> thanks. jeff mills, how do you feel

about lilly? >> well, i mean, based on the current state of affairs, i would think that the addressable market is probably pretty large. but maybe the stock reaction today is even more interesting i mean, this seems like a pretty big deal and the stock was up maybe 60 basis points under performed or outperformed by a bit. but sort of interesting and maybe speaks to the strength of any rallies in the broad market. but listen, i think pharma generally is the strongest part of health care you're kind of in a position of strength not below the 200 day of moving average and lilly is a great chart. it is not cheap here it is already outperformed some. so i've been focusing more on maybe like merck, it broke above 90 and now it is testing to the upside if it holds i would view that as a good sign. bristol-myers, a huge base here. can it break above 75 f. it does, you have more upside there. so those are some of the other names i'm paying attention to given the fact that lilly is on

the expensive side. >> i think the expensive valuation is something that is deserved before this announcement and you throw this in the pipeline and there are some analysts saying $14 billion in sales by 2030 this is an extraordinary moment. if you look at health care and the over weight, lilly up is 58% on a year-over-year. so 36 times forward, not cheap and there are other places in the space that i think you could get a much better valuation, we're just getting started here on "fast money." here is what is coming up next >> oh, darling there is something in the way these solar stocks come together on the anniversary of the beetle's first stepping foot in abby road. which is the real sun king and plus china tech on move. the k-web etf surging as china reopens and diddi crack down comes to an end. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square.

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♪ ♪ throughout today's longer retirement. you are going to see some remarkable things today. you coming or what? bigger... why do they always have to go bigger? welcome back to "fast money. solar stocks soaring the biden administration announcing it will suspend tariffs on solar panel products from southeast asian nations for two years. coming after a month's long probe from the commerce department investigating whether they were circumventing tariffs and this le use the defense production act for solar products so is it a here comes the sun moment for the industry. today there was. let's welcome steve fleishman. great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. >> and you make the point that there have been severe

under-performance of a certain group of solar stocks because the department of commerce investigation. now that that gap should close, how much, should it close all the way because this is for two years is the new tariffs and the department of commerce said the investigation will proceed >> yeah, that is right now this is a big relief of a overhang that has been on sector for several months basically all -- most of the solar projects in the u.s. at least the 80% or so that use panels from overseas have been put in limbo so, this will allow those to move forward and get done and it gives two years for the supply chain to kind of re-set itself, which we think will be enough time so that when we get to the end tv, we'll see solar projects move forward, just under whatever tariffs there may be. >> right tariffs are a big issue. but so are costs and so i'm

wondering does any of this help the inflation air pressures being felt by solar projects across the board whether it be because of labor or because of higher raw material costs? >> yeah, no, this helps a lot. because basically the delays were raising costs and createk all sorts of supply chain problems and ultimately these costs will be bourne by u.s. consumers who are buying solar power in the end. so it is hopeful to resolve this and we think that there is plenty of runway to grow solar and other renewables in this energy environment the energy price spikes have lifted power prices to levels where you could absorb a lot of cost pressure, inflation pressure, and still want to build wind or solar better than any other option

>> steve, it is tim, so help us do our job is that solar ou outperformed through mid 2020 and into '21 and done very little in the last nine months as the energy trade in crude and oil has picked up steam and would make the argument for solar that much stronger and then ultimately give us a somewhat of a balanced or a diversified solar play like in an x terra or the names you like the most. >> that is right and just want to make one point on performance so your right, solar was doing poorly in the sector, clean energy doing really poorly and then once the russia/ukraine war started, we started to see a turn particularly in the nasdaq and broader indices but nowhere near as well as energy stocks. and we think people should view solar and clean energy as kind of a second derivative play on

energy obviously these companies are not benefiting from high commodity prices and selling at higher and higher commodity prices but the opportunity to grow the business when conventional hower prices, gas prices are so high, there is just a lot of head room to grow more renewables and we think that is going to show up now that some of these kind of political overhangs are slowing down we even think we could see some movement on the build back better law here in the next few weeks, too, which is pretty much been left for dead but it is not dead yet so keep an eye on that we think next star is the best way to play, utility scale, large scale renewables and solar. they're the largest player in the u.s. in wind, solar and battery storage and we think our best position in terms of just

scale to be a leader in the sector going forward >> steve, thanks for your thoughts we do appreciate it. >> thank you so much. >> jeff mills, do you view solar and the related stocks as energy alternatives i guess this is a would you rather >> i would certainly rather traditional energy at this point. listen, i think this is a perfect time for this to be announced because you're having this risk on moment so that is helpful and the stocks an the industry as a whole was starting to rally before this if you look at the ten the etf or run or first solar, all of the stocks were bouncing off support. now you have this additional push to the upside but when i think about this market, i think there is ultimately caught up in the unprofitable growth trade. like at a stock like sun run you have negative eps in the out years so this releasing a pressure valve and that is good for the time being

so, yes, maybe play it as a trade. you goodet a bit more upside but i worry about unprofitable growth between now and the end of the year. >> simply on the 10 etf, a move above 80 may cement a double bottom it is breaking above the 200 the technicals on this look really interesting. >> steve, he knows more about solar than i do. but on the build back better, it is dead, dead, dead, no chance of resurrection ever at all. >> sounds positive. >> come up, china tech taking off and hitting a two month high and we have details next and a stock split, amazon getting a pop after the 20 for 1 split. so what is the impact on the options pit. we're getting a premier from mike khouw, don't go anywhere, "fast money" is back in two.

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welcome back to "fast money. the k-web china internet jumped as beijing eased covid lock down restrictions and chinese regulators are ending their probe of didi, closing more than 24% higher so it ko this be an inflection

point for china tech basically, their unlocking the handcuffs on didi. >> but the problem is they've been on a long time and they could go back on whenever. and we used to spend a lot of time talking about this group and i think the pandemic threw it in a whole other kind of range. and then we had the bit of time with tiktok and what we might do for something like that. so to me, i think it is uninvestable, for every great story. and know tim followed that space closely for a long time. for every great story over there, now they're trading at discounts to our names here because of that uncertainty as it related to regulatory so i don't find any of them particularly interesting and the idea of servicing that emerging middle class in clooip is amazing but at the same time if we're going to have a bipolar world, i'm not sure it makes sense from the u.s. standpoint to invest in those names here. >> i'm kind of intrigued by

baba. >> i've been nibbling over the past couple of weeks. >> i feel like the rhetoric has definitely changed. >> right. >> and the covid shutdown seems to be lifting as well, as it relates to the business, forget about the rhetoric but both of those things are interesting to me. but it is not that far off the bottom i'm looking at it. i haven't bought it yet but imintrigued. >> and my point, i don't mean to interrupt, amazon just got cut in half in the last year so you have amazon down 50% or buy alibaba which is down nor. and we don't know where jack ma is. >> that may be a good thing. >> but i think we've kind of quietly -- he's no longer bigger than china and and he was on a global stage more importantly are the technicals here. you haven't seen the k-web above

the 100 day let alone the 50 in a year so the tone change here is at least noticeable in terms of the charts i think you can buy an etf because i think you actually have diversification but i think an alibaba, which may be more in the eye of the storm but you're not exposed to the out liar names, jd and met juan and baidu, and they're big companies that will be here tomorrow. >> and once upon a time, the way to play was through like a starbucks or a nike with access to to the chinese market and exploding wealth in china and i'm wondering if at this point in time with the rhetoric from beijing seeming kafrpg and what is going on between the u.s. and china, if your view might be a chinese national champion because at least you have that going for the stock? >> i think that might be the case right now and i sort of agree with what dan is saying relative to the

risk but i think you could apply that so some of the u.s. and the chinese companies. ure working with a difficult level of risk. the handcuffs could be put back on at any moment and when i look at k-web, it is 50% down from the levels in 2018 but the pe looks higher. so the entire index doesn't appear to be as cheap as maybe you would think given the price move but there are stocks like bobba that are a lot cheaper the pe has been cut in half. even if it claws back half of the previous pe, that is about a 40% upside from here so i think there are areas of the market where these problems have been discounted, baba being one of them. and what is not zrdiscounted is broad based stimulus which i think you're going so to see. >> and how are options traders priming themself for amazon. and throughout june we're celebrating pride month.

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welcome back to "fast money. check out amazon in the green on a post slip basis. the stock slip doesn't change anything about the stock but since 1980 the average stock tends to outperform the s&p 500 on a 3 month and 6 month and 12 month basis after splitting and it has an effect on the options. so mike, what did you see today? >> when the stock splits, so must the options so when we're taking a look at options, the first thing we need to do is adjust the strike prices so in 20 for 1 split, you fake the strike and divide it by the strike last week bam becomes the

130 strike this week options will follow suit so if you owned one call contract, now you own 20 call contracts. so, when we see all of this, of course, we're going to expect the contract quantity, that trades on any given day to increase but that doesn't necessarily mean that it is actually trading more in terms of premium or value. that is what we saw today. we traded over 2.6 million contracts in amazon, so in contract terms that made it the busiest single stock option. but if we were trading 20 times the 300,000 contracts, it trades on average last week and the weeks prior, we would have seen almost 6 million contracts trading. the busiest today was the 130 strike calls over 200,000 traded for about 1.68 a contract and that amazon could surpass the price that we saw today and getting above 130 by the end of the week. >> more more "options action," tune in to the full show friday

at 5:30. and coming up, tesla ceo threatening again to walk away from the deal. why i said the company is thwarted him when "fast money" returns. and that means when the market is going down, you're buying more shares with the same amount of money and when the market recovers, you have more shares going up. so you're also not risking a lump sum all at once for cnbc, i'm sharon epperson.

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your out at the wwc. great to have you with us. you're surprised the stock is not down more. you think it will be scrapped at this point >> the odding are going down i told you a couple of weeks ago when i suggested there is a 70% chance this gets done, i revised that to 50% so it is a toss of coin but if you do the weights, the reason i think shares should be lower, if you do the weights of what could happen, i think there is a weighted 10% downside before i thought it was a flattish outcome so i simply think that this is peerly for entertainment purposes i would not advise trying to play this from a trade perspective. >> it seems like there is a big factor of whether or not the deal goes through, gene, there terms of impact on the price but separate of that, let's say twitter stand as loan, there is a huge question mark over how many accounts the company has. so i'm wonder field , how much t to the stock, that piece of the

puzzle, that maybe all of the accounts that it said it has may not be there >> i don't think it is much of an impact on the stock at this point. i think the other piece to this, the two developments today is the probability of this deal getting done are going down. the second development is this is increasingly becoming politicized and elon's influence is on display. i don't think it is the number of bots, whether it is five or six or 8% bots, he said it is 20 and i think that is a difficult number to prove. but what is at stake here is some principle around frustration that elon has with twitter and how they've performed the type of information they've shared with them they say they've been forthright i think that is what is gnawing at this. and ultimately elon's influence, how famous he is, is going to have a profound impact on the valuation of twitter and so you need to separate yourself from the fundamentals, the fundamentals are being negatively impacted by the

chatter but at the end of the day i think the investors vote of confidence is diminishing here not because of any bot numbers but because now we've politicized this between the left and the right. >> gene, thank you great to see you >> thank you. >> dan >> gene has had this thing from day one. i mean, literally the possibility of this happening, the seriousness of the bid and now all of this coming out i jut keep going back to this. snap just had a really bad quarter and they're going to guide very poorly and twitter is going to do the same and i know elon is not trying to buy it for the existing business. but i just look at two assets, snap and twitter and i say twitter with a 30 billion plus enterprise and snap which i think is a much better company with a 24 billion. it makes no sense and something has to give. so either the company is going to renegotiate the deal or at a much lower price and get it out of their hands or there is something that happen to give between the two

valuations i suspect twitter goes lower. >> 420 might not be or $42 or some derivative of that. >> the number being 420. >> well if you look at twitter, it is flat to where he made his announcement and nasdaq is down about 15% from that point. so, i think jeff, the general was making this point on one of our calls earlier today. so what extent would twitter be true value and now there is no real buyer and there is question about bots it doesn't sound good. >> all right um next, final trades.

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time for the final trade the general. >> so i would be careful with banks. i take my 10% rally and reduce exposure, i think earnings pressure will make upside difficult. >> karen >> so as great as the lilly news is, i think merck is good right here a buy. >> and tim >> and the down trend from

alibaba just inch add bove that. interesting. start nibbling. >> and dan nathan. >> if i was long twitter, would you be selling calls against it. >> thanks for watching "fast money. do not go anywhere "mad money" with jim cramer from the west coast starts right now. there is always a bull market somewhere, but some are harder to find than others "mad money" takes toutyou to the heart of silicon valley to hammer out a strategy. and we start right now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it.