says the u.s. open play is going to be open for anybody who has qualified for it or is exempt. and that includes folks like dustin johnson and phil mickelson. >> i guess they're washing their hands of it. and, dom, so are we. thank you for watching "power l lunch. >> "closing bell" starts right now. stocks mostly higher in another up-and-down session on wall street. near the best levels on the day as we head into the close. the most important hour of trading starts now welcome, everyone, to "closing b b bell." i'm sara eisen you have software working today and technology and that is helping out the dow. salesforce and united health the biggest contributor to the gains. the s&p 500 up half a percent. every sector is actually in the green except for consumer discretionary and you can thank target and the retail trade there right now. energy is the best performing sector industrials strong, so is health care and information technology.

the nasdaq rallying about half a percent. remember, this comes off of eight down weeks for the s&p and kind of a weak start, weakish start to the week. check out some of the most actively traded names right here right now at the new york stock exchange didi well, you have been seeing strength in the chinese internet names. mostly stronger. nio is the most actively traded. the energy names are up there as well the energy trade is strong, up 2.9% bringing year-to-date gains to almost 65%. coming up today, the ceo of ihg group here at the exchange to ring the closing bell he'll join us first on cnbc to talk about his outlook for summer travel. they own everything from holiday inn to intercontinental. plus we'll ask tony dwyer what is behind his continued summer rally. inventory troubles are hitting target

earlier the company told investors it's slashing its profit margins due to deeply discounted goods to get rid of that extra inventory target plunged on the back of the news but shares have recovered. joining us now, stephanie and melissa. ladies, it's good to have both of you here. melissa, you spoke to brian cornell, the ceo, about thoeis morning about this profit margin cut. what did he tell you >> he said by taking markdowns and cancelling orders now, target can save itself from further pain later it needs to make room for what customers are buying, things like makeup and luggage and groceries. >> what does it mean for the rest of the group, stephanie, if target is having these kind of inventory markdowns? should we expect that it's happening everywhere or did target make a bigger mistake in terms of estimating consumer demand >> i think we're seeing inventory elevated across a lot

of different retailers so i don't think this is necessarily just target. i think they're just getting out in front of it i think it's also a by-product of their mix if you look at target versus wal walmart, they do up index in own brands, exclusive brands and home and apparel, so those are their exclusive categories when they buy it, they own it. that's part of this, the way they go to market under their own brands and own labels. >> melissa, one thing that was so surprising is that it's three weeks after the company came out with earnings and already had lower guidance on this very issue. what happened between now and then that they couldn't get a good read on in terms of consumer data and insights >> i asked brian that very question he said that one of the big influencing factors hearing from a lot of other retailers he was concerned and the company decided to make changes after hearing that a lot of other companies were facing similar inventory woes so he said target wanted to move

swiftly. it wanted to get ahead of some of the events, particularly back-to-school and the holiday season dealing with a lot of things in the back room like bulky patio furniture then it can't clear the way for things customers do want and it could snowball into the back half of the year. so it's taking the hit now in q2 and hopefully he said the back half of the year will have better margins. >> yeah, i mean they literally have to clear the shelves for back to the basics melissa, importantly they didn't cut guidance in terms of sales they reiterated, which says to me that it's not necessarily a huge consumer slowdown but more of a consumer shift in priorities, is that right? or is that coming next >> yes so brian has really emphasized at least what target is seeing is more of a wallet shift. he said traffic has still been strong in its stores and on its website, but people are spending differently. so they're spending more for a different kind of life

they're not staying at home and hop shopping a lot of pandemic categories they're not weighing sweat pants or a new toaster oven. instead, they want to get out again. unfortunately for target and other retailers as well, they got a bunch of inventory, in some cases late, and it reflected some of those categories. >> so, stephanie, i think you've been on hold with target for several years now ahead of some of your competitors who had a downgrade on the last quarter. what do you do with the stock now that it's already seen such a big correction >> yeah, i think we need to give this company credit for getting out in front of this from a transparency perspective it's so interesting to me in the context of modern communication that admitting your mistakes, taking responsibility, doing quick and swift action to remediate it and then moving on is kind of the way this has to happen today so i do think they deserve some credit it's going to take a couple of

quarters to digest this inventory so we want to see not only the quantity of inventory but the quality of inventory shifting over into higher quality categories where we know there's consumer demand so this is a bit of a rolling effect but i think this is a really important moment in business and in retail to admit, take responsibility, quickly flush and move forward and bring in the high quality inventory that consumers want. >> so are you saying that you would be a buyer on this news? >> yeah, i think the stock coming back today to us is a real interesting signal that investors are giving the company credit for what happened not necessarily liking the operating margin impact, but certainly honoring what happened in terms of what it means to the business in the near term but recognizing that the long termite actually be better off as a result of moving through this quickly and getting in front of it. >> citi also said it's bad for old navy, for levi, kohl's and

macy's which go into those categories as well, some of the home goods and apparel melissa, stephanie, we'll leave the conversation there thank you very much. >> thank you. i also wanting to hit another big retail mover today, because there's new details in the kohl's sale saga last night the company said it has entered exclusive talks with franchise group about a potential $8 billion takeover deal, $60 a share. many people had to google franchise group today. it is the owner of pet supplies plus and the vitamin shoppe. kohl's is higher clearly on news there's still a deal to be had and a $60 price tag looks like a good one but it is off the highs of the day and nowhere near that $60 price. it's trading at $45.51 right now. the market is telling you this deal still faces some big potential hurdles. for instance, some questions for investors to consider here based on my reporting. will sephora agree is there agreement from the owner of sephora

there is a strong strategic partnership for building out 850 sephoras within kohl's stores. another question, does franchise group have a real estate buyer it would have to sell the real estate, estimated to be worth $5 to $6 billion or so to finance this deal. even if so, the debt market not totally shut down but it is getting more expensive so can franchise get the debt and is kohl's going to agree to one highly leveraged deal. and one final point, what would be the synergies here? easier to see it with j.c. penney or hudson pay those parties either got out of the bidding process or got on the sidelines since kohl's reported a few weeks ago the bottom line, it is not a done deal. the company is coming out saying it's serious about the bid and the whole bid but is this bid realistic and probable that's a question for investors to be considering. up next, we'll talk to

today's bell ringer, the ceo of ihg group about his outlook for summer travel and whether inflation is taking a bite out of people's hotel budgets. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. you are looking at session highs with the dow up almost 200 points lemons, lemons, lemons. the world is so full of lemons. when you become an expedia member, you can instantly start saving on your travels. so you can go and see all those lemons, for less.

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earnings estimates and raising its guidance thanks to inflation-driven sales but whole foods is one of its largest clients, turned around on investor concerns about a nearly 12%in in kcrease in open expenses driven by higher transportation and labor costs look at that intraday move, down 3% now. investors are ready to travel again this summer a new report today from the data specialist site forward keys shows international bookings for the summer at 20% of last year's levels marriott and hilton told me they are seeing very strong demand. >> i think we'll have the biggest summer we've ever seen in our 103-year history this summer. >> the forward bookings look extraordinary really everywhere but greater china. >> joining us now, ihg resorts and hotels ceo you are on the panel yesterday and feeling quite bullish about the consumer what are you seeing?

>> i remember at the height of the pandemic we were talking about what the future of travel is going to be and travel is back i don't think we should be surprised about that at all. when you think about the impact of the pandemic on the consumer, it was the greatest demand suppression event our industry has ever seen. people couldn't travel, they couldn't leave their homes, but it was a demand creation event for goods. so people couldn't travel so they bought a new television, renovated their home and now as things normalize, demands are normalizing. going back into services, going back into travel. >> you're explaining the target guidance cut and the fact that your business is booming but it's true. but it's true, people are prioritizing. >> without question. think about how many family reunions were missed, how many weddings got postponed two years. how many meetings got moved and conventions. that's all beginning to happen now. >> but the question, keith, is how long that pent-up demand surge can last

it was temporary on the way down and there are thoughts it could be temporary on the way up, especially if we go into a slowdown or recession. >> when you think about how healthy the consumer is, corporate balance sheets are still quite healthy and we're still early days of the corporate travel recovery and those meetings and events and conventions. so we're seeing a lot of forward momentum for the business. it's going to be a great summer. i think demand will continue to grow here in the u.s. now it's accelerating in europe, the middle east and asia >> how many hotels do you have in china. >> 600 open and 400 or 500 under development. >> are they open >> some of them are quarantine hotels shanghai has reopened. beijing reopened and what gives me confidence, if you remember when shenzhen shut down in southern china, business went away. 90 days after it reopened, business was back to normal. when restrictions are lifted across china, it's going to be a real strong market again. >> another question is

international travel, and cross-border travel into the u.s. we talked about this yesterday seema mody has been doing great reporting on intentions. the idea that you have to test to get into the united states, how much do you think that is hurting demand for travel into and out of the u.s.? >> i think it hurts demand to some degree because it's quite frustrating. we were talking the other day, the fact that you have to sit at home, do a video test, upload it and fill out different forms, that's out of step with the rest of the world it's easy to get into europe and that's why demand into europe is booming. london is back, paris is back. new york is doing quite well but it's domestic in orientation right now. >> what about pricing? we talked about how you guys have pricing power, the demand is there how much of it is driven by higher costs you're having to pay higher wages to attract people and prices for energy and everything else is up how much is just the fact that you are able to do so because demand is so strong? >> it is the true basic economics. the demand is so strong in so many markets that we're having the ability to price

effectively, we haven't been keeping pace with inflation. so there's still more pricing power in this business moving forward and demand will continue to come throughout the summer, i think into the autumn as well. >> so you have holiday inn and six census >> some of our strongest brands were holiday inn express, staybridge with those main street brands. people who have to travel to do their jobs going to a manufacturing job to work on it and do repairs. at the top end of luxury and lifestyle, there is no pricing resistance at all. i have never seen resorts in destinations be able to price like this and that's going to continue for the foreseeable future. >> you're going to continue to raise. >> i think rates will go up. >> how much does it cost >> i've seen some 5,000, 6,000, $7,000 a night right now.

>> let's give you a check account markets. we're near the high of the session, 173 on the dow. we started out weak and were down 273 at the lows of the day. every sector is strong right now. energy leads along with industrials and health care. consumer discretionary is in the red. but even target has really come back it's only down 3%. it was down 9, more than that percent. etsy is down a little bit but it's overall a strong day. shopify is rallying as the company hosts its investor rally, though it's still down a whopping 70% on the year we'll tell you what's sending that stock higher today. later, tony dwyer explains his thinking on the rkmaet and why he says conditions are still ripe for a continued summer rally. we'll be right back.

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welcome back shares of shopify getting a bit of relief after a brutal year of trading as the company hosts its investor day our kate rooney has a look at some of the big takeaways. kate. >> shopify shareholders gave the go ahead for a couple of big

proposals at that annual meeting this morning first, more control for ceo tobias lutke he'll have a founder share that guarantees him 40% of the voting rights, even if his ownership stake drops. there are certain conditions he's got to stay at the company, for example. he and shopify's director already have voting control but they could lose that in the future if the company were to issue new class a shares the structure is pretty common in founder-led tech companies and usually negotiated at the ipo. as our leslie picker put it, this is really reserved for companies that have performed well enough for shareholders to give founders as a hall pass for something that could be poor corporate governance there were some opponents to this, some firms urging shareholders not to vote yes on that founder's share going forward. shopify will be a little less exposed to potential unwanted takeovers like we're seeing play out right now with twitter

shareholders also approved a 10 for 1 stock split. it comes as shopify shares are down more than 70% this year, although they are rallying a bit today, sara. >> i wondering if it's the stock split, kate. i don't know what you're hearing. just because we've seen amazon have this unexpected run-up on its 20 for 1 stock split >> that seems to be driving the gains. we really didn't get a lot of commentary i'm thinking back to square or block's shareholder meeting where you get this vision of where the company is going this really was not a lot of q & a. a formality of we're going through the votingproposal we didn't get a ton out of that, that would give analysts or investors anything other than these approvals. i would think it's got to be the stock split. although now with fractional shares, they talked about this really opening up access to the stock. it seems like people wanti to bu in smaller dollar amounts. as far as retail trading goes,

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stocks holding steady here near the highs of the day as we head into the close trying to

shake out of target's profit warning earlier. the news had brought down major averages this morning. joining us is the governing partner of hms the firm oversees $84 billion in assets, $24 billion in public credit it's great to have you on the show welcome. >> hi, sara. thanks. >> i'm curious who someone who looks at the credit market and the bonds of some of these companies, what you made of the target warning and what some of the ramifications could be for the economy and for earnings estimates? >> so, you know, we're seeing this a lot with a lot of companies, which are talking about some of the cost pressures, which are impacting margins. so, you know, there's been labor cost pressures, freight cost pressures as a result of energy prices, shifts from discretionary spend to nondiscretionary spend, shift from goods to services and experiences. so i would say a couple of takeaways. one is we've seen a lot of it.

we've seen labor sort of -- reduction in labor needs we haven't seen a lot of layoffs yet, so that would be one thing. i think too is we have seen some margin pressure. companies have hung in there but their outlooks are a little bit more concerned around their outlooks and we've seen that pretty consistently. three, we've started to see some of those shifts and their inability to pass through pricing entirely, so it's hitting margins. so we're seeing a lot of that. we focus on credit over here, but we're watching all those trends. >> no, what is the credit market telling you? is it as pessimistic about the economy or at least does it feel as pessimistic as what the equity market has been doing lately >> it doesn't feel as pessimistic. credit market spreads have not moved so dramatically. i think everyone knows high yield is down 7%, treasuries down 10% so most of that high yield has

been a function of the treasury market move. in terms of credit spreads, you haven't seen them move out so dramatically in fact if you look over the cadence of time and the range of post-gfc, most asset classes and credit, whether that be investment grade, high yield bonds, levered loans, or still trading inside of their median spreads. >> and the market has been open. yesterday, i think, was one of the busiest days, ride, of the year i have 12 borrowers pricing $15 billion amongst 15 tranches. what does it tell you? >> it tells me the market is very orderly and functioning so the credit markets is definitely functioning there's been some hiccups along the way and weeks where the market has not been open to do financings, but in general with some minor concessions and repricings, the market is open the high-yield market and loan market is less open so the levered credit market is less

open but the investment grade market, you're seeing a lot of deals get done. >> so not super recessionary, it sounds like, from your view? >> not super recessionary from our view not yet anyway that's not what the credit levered markets are pricing in. >> so what do you do in this environment where financial conditions are tightening and we still see inflation? what would you guys be doing to protect yourself in that environment? >> so as a firm, and i can talk about liquid credit and the firm one is floating rate versus fixed rate has been one theme. two is duration management so shorter versus longer to protect against some of these rate hikes that may come our way. and three, certainly we have a very large private credit business where we've put a lot of emphasis on documentation and structures to protect our -- try to do the best we can to protect our investments. >> finally, what do you expect from the fed, versus what the market is expecting at this

point? >> i think the fed has been pretty transparent, we think, and advertised kind of what they're looking for. it seems that the fed is looking for signs that inflation is going to -- the inflation rates will temper a little bit the next big meeting is in september for all of these reads to come through. so i think our view is we're watching all these numbers carefully. it seems that inflation numbers are flattish still and are not coming down dramatically so we think the fed will stay on course we think that we'll reach this sort of -- the treasury markets priced it in but we think we'll reach this 3% plus or minus number, which is kind of where we are, and the fed is likely to reassess we think that reassessment likely comes before the end of the year. >> friday will be interesting, big cpi report thank you very much. good to talk to you. we are getting some breaking news on covidvaccine maker novavax. meg tirrell has it

meg? >> hey, sara well, fda's group of outside advisers have just taken a vote to recommend novavax's covid-19 vaccine. the vote was 21 yeses, 0 nos and one abstention so overwhelmingly in favor of what would be the fourth covid vaccine for emergency use authorization. of course the fda now takes the recommendation and will make its own decision, potentially within the next few days or weeks we will see what happens with that but the argument here really has been an interesting one. this is a company that conducted the clinical trials, was part of operation warp speed a lot of the data it was using to support the application were from last year before the omicron environment emerged. these data look at the similar to the data we used to clear the moderna and pfizer vaccines initially. there's hope that this being a different vaccine technology will get the last few people who

haven't gotten the vaccine potentially over the finish line >> meg, how many years have we been talking with stanley irk. they thought they were getting approval like two years ago. i guess the question now is, is there a market for this? because the ceo of moderna isn't davos is saying they're throwing away vaccines at this point. >> yeah, that is a very big question the cdc noted there are about 27 million americans over the age of 18 who have not gotten their primary series in the u.s. we don't have good data on how many of those people may have been waiting for a more traditional vaccine technology and might consider getting this one. there isn't a huge amount of optimism this is going to change that picture but perhaps it could change a few people's minds. we'll have to see. this isn't even looking at it as a booster dose we need more data on that but it

could potentially get it out there as the first vaccine for novavax, first product for this company in a long time, working on it. >> that's a milestone for sure, meg, thank you take a look at where we stand. we are higher. we've taken another leg up up 228 on the dow, making new highs into the close s&p 500 up almost a percent. you've got energy in the lead. that straug finish for oil, highest price since march. technologies working a lot of those beaten down software names are higher, big cap tech is higher also ahead, tony dwyer on why he thinks the market may be getting ready to heat up this summer a remiernderreminder, you can fe "closing bell" podcast on your favorite podcast app we'll be right back with the dow up more than 200 points.

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check out some of today's top search tickers right now on cnbc.com 10-year treasury is in its top spot by the way there's buying today. yields are a bit lower, falling below that 3% level. we went above there yesterday. maybe that's aleleviating some pressure there's target down 2.2% at the low of the day it was 147.15 it's rallied back up to 156. amazon gives back a nice sort of a week-long rally after a 20 for 1 stock split. apple is higher today, so is

tesla, so are most technology stocks which is why the nasdaq is up almost a full percent. robinhood sinking as investors brace for possible changes to payment for order flow we will explain. that story plus a big upgrade for exxon and a bullish market call when we take you inside the market zone, next and thinkorswim® is right there with you. to help you become a smarter investor. with an innovative trading platform full of customizable tools. dedicated trade desk pros and a passionate trader community sharing strategies right on the platform. because we take trading as seriously as you do. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade

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we're up 252 right now shannon joins us, and tony dwyer, chief market strategist so, tony, it seems like this is the kind of action that you'd expect in the summer you've been saying the conditions are ripe for a summer rally. right, sara. there's three reasons that we started making that call remember, we've been on the sidelines the entire year. it centered around three points. number one, you had an extreme oversold condition coupled with high pessimism that still exists. it's reversing a little bit and pivoting higher but you get a little follow-through with that. secondarily there was a belief that the fed has already discounted in the market again, with the 10-year note yield and inflation break-evens a little below the peak they were at earlier in may, that condition still is in play and then lastly, economic expectations just got far too negative we had the negative gdp print in

the first quarter on inventory and exports some of that is going to reverse going into the second quarter so expectations were a little too negative so all three conditions that set the stage for a rally or a bottom remain in place it's still highly questionable ifit's the bottom. >> so what do you do as you see rally days like today? should you take it as an opportunity to get more defensive, to take positions off the table, to set up for whatever is coming next? >> i think you set up for whatever is coming next. so the biggest bounce so far has been in those areas that got hit the most and that makes sense. every rally starts with a short covering rally so you're getting a bounce over the last few weeks with the exception of the last week you're getting a bounce in those names that have had the worst drop so at this point if you didn't like them, down 10% ago, a couple of weeks ago, you may want to cut back on those. again, this is in the context of a market that's trying to find

its footing because the money backdrop is very different than it was even two months ago. >> and get into where? do you still like energy it's up another 3% today, a tremendous move. >> you know, what i've done is i've taken a neutral bias. if you're overweight technology or if you're overweight energy, on a ramp, i just neutralize it. i think this is an environment where you don't want to get hurt i don't think you get negative you certainly don't want to get negative down 20% in four plus months and that was our call as you go up, if you were uncomfortable a few weeks ago, then get comfortable and do whatever it is i think it's inappropriate for people like me to come on and broadly say what people should do because that's broadly based on the risk tolerance. if you were uncomfortable with the lows, you're now 8% or so or 7% off of those lows >> yeah, about 25% off the high. so shannon, you are putting money to work here and you like some of these tech names, i

think, especially ones that are working today in the software space like crm have you held that conviction throughout the big sell-off, not worried about an i.t. spending slowdown >> well, it would be inaccurate to say i'm not worried about it. of course you're worried about it you look at the economic data. to tony's point, we've seen things get significantly more negative the last couple of weeks as it relates to sentiment. but i think that tony's point is well taken in looking across whether it's sectors or your allocation in stocks versus bonds, neutralizing your exposure, we've been bringing down our technology exposure incrementally over the last nine months or so to get to an even weight that's in part because we want to make sure that some of the names like you mentioned, some of our cloud names, crm, adobe, those that are really going to benefit from this hybrid environment are higher conviction names in our portfolio, so that comes at the expense of trimming names like microsoft and apple, but we think that's appropriate going

into the back half of the year i don't disagree withtony. i think we're setting up for potentially a summer rally, but i don't see that rally happening until after mid-july i think we need some earnings catalysts for us to build a true foundation for this rally and i actually think we'll get a couple of more weeks of chop as wee into july. >> shannon brings up a good point, tony, with earnings which are not moving in the right direction. we had the microsoft guidance cut on the strong dollar, which theoretically could be temporary, we don't know yet we had target warning on profit margins. do the elevated earnings expectations make sense here in this market, and do they represent a big downside risk to your view? >> i think they do, sara remember earlier in the year you looked at me and you said i'm used to you being bullish, i don't get it, right? >> yeah. >> that's still the case here's the thing it's been a long time -- you have to have money for investment, for buying stuff or doing stuff. all three things take money.

where do you get your mone from many people take it out of their homes. they refinance their home to take advantage of the higher prices that's shot. every meeting i'm on with institutions at this point i ask the clients to raise their hand if they have a mortgage rate that's below 3.5%. it was there for so long the majority of people have it there. so think about what it's going to take to move a 5.25% 30-year mortgage to have those folks refinance. then the other place you get it from banks or your brokerage account. we all know how those are down and the banks are tightening their lending standards. lastly, you get it from your job. well, real wages have been negative because inflation remains too high so when we put aside all the great economic stuff that we talk about, doing what we do, it all comes down to do you have money to invest or buy stuff or do stuff and theanswer is right now it' tighter than that. so it all depends to me on what

happens later in the summer. the fed has got to have a signaling change to create, quote, unquote, the bottom you can have a tradeable bottom which is what i think we identified on the show with a month ago. >> but does that come, tony, if the economy weakens substantially? if that causes it, do you still get the bottom if the fed starts getting worried about the economy? >> well, yeah, because you drop the earnings, going back to your original question that i had way too long-winded of an answer yes, you have to have a drop in earnings expectations. i'm at 225 this year i'm below the street by three bucks, almost four bucks expectations are pretty strong going into the second half we found out today it wasn't a problem with inflation, today was a problem with the historic inventory build. if you look at retail inventory even ex-autos it's near a record level. >> right but the inflation problem has been hurting margins as well tony, we've got to leave it there. thank you very much. >> thank you.

>> good to have an updated view from you. shares of target, story of the day. under pressure well off the session lows after the company warned of weaker profits amid a glut of inventory. the retailer said it will take aggressive steps to get rid of that excessive inventory, including cancelling orders, offering markdowns brian cornell telling cnbc that it's to make room for merchandise that customers actually wanting, like groceries, household essentials and back-to-school supplies. target's warning coming less than a month after the company reported disappointing quarterly earnings three weeks later, shannon, they're cutting again. wall street appears to be giving the company the benefit of the doubt. we just had an analyst on hold since 2019 on that stock saying she gives the company major props for being transparent, clearing the decks and moving on do you agree >> well, this is a really interesting narrative because we go back several years, everyone wanted to see target focus on

the middle of the store where the margins were better. they weren't sure that this expansion into groceries was the best way to go they thought target was losing its competitive advantage by focusing on the outer rim. now we're looking at the middle of the store being areas of discount granted, we have certainly seen an increase in goods spending the last couple of years, but i don't give management quite as much credit yet. to that point, however, some of the declines in margin are certainly being priced into this stock. i think it becomes increasingly more attractive. however, i'm not so sure there won't be several more quarters of potential margin pressure from bringing down these inventories. i hope they're able to bring them down quick enough so they can restock those areas like back-to-school which i think will be a big catalyst for the stock in the fall. >> does it make you rethink any other names in retail if you were in any of them right now? you're getting weakness in lowe's pretty much everybody else is up

but target was citing categories, like tvs and apparel. >> yeah, we're certainly looking at our position in best buy, for instance we're thinking about potential electronics spend. we're definitely seeing if you look at credit card data, you're seeing a huge shift from goods to services. how many additional electronics, so that's certainly a name we're concerned about. we also have home depot. not as concerned about home depot. i feel like the execution has been fantastic and we love the housing adjacent trade i think big box retailers, we own costco, we own home depot. we're happy with those i wouldn't buy either target or walmart at this level. once some of this inventory clears, i think there's potentially an opportunity with improved inflation that these stocks start to look more attractive over the next few weeks. >> all the investing in the home stocks today are down on this. best buy, to your point, amazon is lower, home depot is lower and lowe's, as mentioned energy, though, on a roll again.

best performing sector as wall street reaffirms its bullishness. goldman sachs upping the price targets on exxon, chevron after they raised the forecast for brent crude by 10 bucks. evercore also bullish on exxon saying the current valuation is adding more than 20% discounting. exxon jumping to its highest level since back in july, 2014 evercore did downgrade occidental to in line saying tailwinds may be reflected in the stock's massive outperformance year to date. shannon, the ceo of the big commodity trading firm telling "the financial times" that we could still see parabolic moves higher in energy prices and wouldn't we surprised to see $150 a barrel or higher. do you just stick with these names? >> yeah, we're in some of the

more high beta names i think what you're seeing is this rotation to names like exxon. you're probably going to see some similar positive notes on chevron, because it focuses on capital allocation if you go back to 2005 and 200 sticks, we were talking about big oil prices then too. but there was capital investment that didn't make sense if oil prices dropped what people are finding is they have been much more disciplined in terms of putting capital to work i think that was what was cited in the note. and i think it's a good point. as you rotate away from some of these higher beta energy names and think about long term, are these companies that have great balance sheets and are improving their capital allocation, is that where you get the best bang for the buck it might be the second wave of this energy renaissance, if you will. >> 4.5% move higher on exxon amazing. take a look at robinhood

shares they are under pressure ahead of expectations that gary gensler will announce changes to payment for order flow gensler has been saying for a year now he wants to do something on this issue. what do you expect >> the important thing is he hasn't told us exactly what he's going to say i've talked to market participants and they think he'll try to float a proposal that will allow for some kind of auction process can occur so he can take some power away from the handful of people who control payment for order flow right now. he thinks the market makers have too much power and he thinks some of the brokerage firms involved in sending the order flow out may have conflict of interest none of that is exactly clear. the problem is going to be he'll have to demonstrate some kind of real harm here right now we've got zero dollar commissions right now. the average retail investor is getting a pretty good deal even if it costs a few cents for the payment for order flow sks i

think he'll have a hard time demonstrating that the retail investor -- more likely he'll float the proposal and propose some rules down the road for sure he'll ask for more disclosure he'll want a clearer breakdown of what the actual costs are for payment for order flow. >> question, bob the an les at wolf research put out a note saying obviously robinhood and schwab are most exposed when it comes to equity payment for order flow any sense that they would go after options, crypto -- >> they could go after the whole system all of the exchanges, the new york stock exchange, nasdaq, they all provide rebates to participants who trade down here so that's a form of payment for order flow if he decided to generically go after the whole system, yeah, there would be a lot of existential threats to a number of the exchanges i'm quite certain they'd face lawsuits for sure if he went after the entire system of payment for order.

>> i guess equity, 3% for schwab, 12% for hood but if they go broader than equities, it's a huge weight on revenues and profitability bob, thank you major averages are in the green heading into the close we're near session highs, shannon. we were down almost 300 points, up now almost 300 points you've got cyclical groups rallying and technology rallying what does it tell you? >> i think it's repositioning. you know, to the point of looking at what's happened over the last couple of weeks, i think in some cases some of the names that are being bid up, particularly in the tech sector, are names people are looking at wanting to hold for the next several years. albeit the concerns and potential overhang for lower i.t. spending at the enterprise level, there are names that if people had been looking at these nine, 12, 18 months ago, they're starting to look a lot more attractive i think on the cyclical side, i

think a balance between more defensive names, the names that have done well, health care and perhaps technology, starting to regain some of that defensive us in, it's still important which regardless of trend we'll be in the next several years you've got to have some cyclical exposure i wouldn't be surprised to see people branch out more into materials and industrials, maybe getting a little bit concerned about the increases we've had in energy but i think that would be good for the market if that cyclical trade started to widen out a little bit if we got financials to participate, that could really create that foundation for the rally that tony was talking about. >> this whole recessionary question weighing on the market, but the data has strong. sha shannon, thank you very much. as we head into the close i want to show you the dow is up 260 points you've got names like crn, software names contributing big time every sector in the s&pright now is green energy, industrials, technology

lead consumer discretionary is the only group that is lower target is at the bottom of that list along with etsy and amazon, which is taking a step back but you've got strength in apple, microsoft, nvidia, meta, and tesla helping the nasdaq rally nearly a whole percent there's the ceo of ihg ringing bet bell that does it for me. i will sending it to "overtime" with scott wapner. >> sara, thank you very much welcome, everybody, to "overtime. we just heard the bells ability we right here are just getting started. in just a few minutes i'll be joined by anastasia amoroso. joe terranova and liz young will also be here with me we begin, though, with our talk of the tape. this market's sudden ability, it seems, to shake off bad news, from earnings to economic data to that target takedown. we're wondering what it says about the state of stocks right now. let's ask brian belski, chief investment strategist.