and one of the reasons they had taken their ownb numbers down yet again. you start looking ahead to earnings you got the cpi on friday and earnings are already starting to be a downer before they come out. then we have to focus on what apple might deliver. and morgan stanley talking about the app store and slow down in services too the exchange is now. thank you, scott hi, everybody. here's what's coming up this hour the nasdaq having another volatile session it was rying to make it three days in a row earlier on we managed to climbb back to where we were in early may is all of this a bear market bounce, a durable bottom and a look at market share energy as oil climbs above 120 bucks a barrel today

and now we'll hear from one of chair ginsler's biggest critics. plus five below neoand siginate jewellers. we've got the action, the story and the trade ahead in earnings exchange but first, let's get the latest on these markets unpleasant task goes back to dom chu. >> they are as red as your dress but at one point they were floating in green. we're talking about fractional gains and losses it's bineen a relatively tight trading lane especially ahead of the big cpi print on inflation on friday maybe not a lot of massive movement ahead of that the dow industrials down 225 points 22,00955 three quarter percent losses for the s&p. down 34 points and 67-point losses for the nasdaq, which is

12,107 one place seeing a nice surge is chinese internet and tech itnology overall alibaba a big gainer u.s. listed shares up. and j.d..com among the nasdaq 100 names on the list today. because chinese regulators have approved a nice slate of new video games. why is that such a big driver? it might indicate the easing of regulatory concerns in china is still taking hold here so, investors are getting incrementally more positive on china, if the government is going to back off the regulatory risk many stocks are well off their highs for the year and one place to watch right now is intel shares. keep an eye on those particular ones down about 5%. tech down all the way. >> thank you very much

the three major averages are still positive on the week my next guest says we could see another 7% urp side in the near term and says things will have to get worse before they start to get better. i'm joined by new age wealth cio, cameron dawson. >> we think the data has to get a lot worse in order to justify a pivot to accommodation by the fed. because we are starting to see some easing in the labor market. but we're starting off with such record-tight levels, that it wouldn't justify a pivot by the fed. and the reason we think fed accommodation is important every time we had a krekz and a bull market coming out of it, we had to pivot from the fed. 11, 15, 18, 20 every single one of the times the fed was supportive and we don't see the fed becoming supportive in the near

term >> and all of this sets you up for what kind of tactical strategy in stocks right now because it's not like you're saying get out >> no, the opportunity is focusing on quality. it's really quality out of goods price. because we want companies that can generate strong cash flows, have good balance sheets and optionality in this part of the cycle. we want companies to deploy capitol, whether it's buying back stock or doing it opportunistic. but we can't have any price for that we have to be selectbive and disline plned. instead of blanket buying the entire sector, what we're finding is a lot of opportunities within sectors because we're seeing a lot of evidence of winners and losers we'll be selective within the sectors. >> a couple of examples is machinery in the industrials

some of the tech names within health care. >> because something like machinery, trading at a reasonable valuation it started to out perform the broader market but it also is an inflationary beneficiary as you see commodity prices go up, you have to see more investment in the commodity complex and machinery companies benefit from this. again, better trends, good valuations but that givings us a little bit more of an effective in the cyclical binge in the essential health care purchases. >> what's your worst fear for investors? >> i think that inflation does not eb at all. there's been a big hope trade that you're going to see inflation roll over in the near term, which would allow the fed to back off from some of the most aggressive targets. if that does not happen and we see inflation remain elevated and a hawkish fed, we likely

look at the hard landing scenario where they have to the slam on the brakes harder and faster than people are expecting. which means they have to fall much further than where they are from here. >> and we see the 10 year back above 3% comments from yellen getting more hawkish cameron, we'll leave it there. thanks so much cameron dawson with their inflation playbook turning to the surging oils contributing to all of this. the sector continuing to dominate the market. look at crude climbing above $122 a barrel. this is a rally that's extended. 15 stocks in the energy etf are hitting an all-time high trading at more than $105 a share. let's bring in senior portfolio manager at tortoise capital.

there had been a discount for a lot of the -- major producers like exxon now we're seeing the prices finally go from here >> cash in the sector and that's what investors are looking for high dividend yields if you look across the energy sector, you have double digit precash flow double the precash flow yield you have a dividend yield. 5500 dividend yield, other energy stocks are four or five times higher from a dividend and i don't see that changing. >> there was a note over the weekend where the analysts say we missed the first 50% in energy we're going for the inext 50%. is there going to be another 50%? >> if you look at what energy sector

first of all energy security since february 24th, really hype and important. in particular u.s. energy sector can provide energy security to not only the u.s. and decan carbonization. that's another classic example they not only embrace but participating in the decarbonization trend and they're just getting started the sector can not only provide good fundmental led by high cash flow and technical factors and things am vesters are looking for in the future like decarbonization and the impact the sector can have is really going to play out over the next several years. the sector can continue to rise as a result of that. >> you have particular ideas like eqt the net gas producer the refiner of valero.

you still like exxon and chevron. you say the most underappreciated stock istia near, why? >> you think about the impact they've had globally europe was in a lot of trouble to start the year because they were going to run out of natural gas potentially. 85% of the exports have helped refill the europe natural gas story, which is going to help brace europe to get through next winter in regards to natural gas. fundamentally what i like about it and the market is not appreciating it is the company can generate a significant amount of cash flow year after year after year and the free cash flow yield is double digits and that type of double digit free cash flow yield for that duration should not just be priced at what the current price

is >> there you go. it is in the green today so is valero rob, we'll leave it there for now. we'll check back soon. and a 10-year note top of the hour go up for auction this is a biggy. rick, how did it go? what are yields doing? >> it was a nasty auction. dog minus, d-minus is the grade. the yield at the dutch auction, 3.03%. where was the one issued market trading? below 3.02 so, it tailed badly and the metrics aren't good. if we look at the bid to cover it, 2.41, it's the lightest since november of 2021 63.6 on indirect that's an important column, kelly. foreign interests are embedded there. the lightest since july of 2021.

and that's domestic players most likely pension and big institutional players that need good government collateral and finally the dellalers at 17% not good a d-minus there and of course, tomorrow we complete 96 billion in treasury supply with 19,000,000,030-year bonds. you can see all yields have moved higher we're not at the the high yields of the day we're a basis point away but we're on track for the fifth close above 3% since november of 2018 back to you. >> that hawkish half point surprise everybody else is fighting inflation. and they seem to be saying bring it on. >> i think they're saying bring it on because finally can decades and decades of overly involved bank of japan and the government is finally taken its toll

men of us were wondering can nay get away with the types of activities, whether it's purchases of etfs or playing with their markets literally for years and years. why is there no repercussions? now we see what they are their currency is getting killed, whether it's against the euro or against the chinese wan or the dollar. and it's going to most likely continue they welcome inflation because they need to let interest rates breathe and do what they're supposed to do that's the key you can only control and manipulate markets for so long and eventually you run out of runway and i think that's where the japanese economy is. >> waiting with baited breath to see where this one goes. coming up an exclusive interview with the ceo of cecil. he warned us the market wassent ready.

said oil and the dollar could be significantly higher and they are. what's on the horizon now coming up and signet is 15% of its all-time high and nio is on track for the best month in years. ahead on earnings exchange hey businesses! you all deserve something epic! so we're giving every business, our best deals on every iphone -

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welcome back it's been a tough year and supposed to be a big winner from higst rates and now credit swift is warning it will post a second quarter loss and weak customer lows. my next guest is r warned us the ukraine conflict and stronger dollar is a big head wind. and for more, let's welcome back ron, charl -- chairman and ceo of stifel. what are your early takeaways? first of all what difference a year makes 400 companies representing

consumer, industrial, tech energy and we see a lot of viewpoints a year ago easy money and yet at the end of the year ago it doesn't matter what room i walk in to, every company talking the same thing the aerj costs and supply chain. >> do you think the swift story -- this is their third warning now. they've been going through a restructuring. but are there warnings, signs, signals, whatever. j.p. morgan. jaime diamond said similar thing about storm clouds on the horizon. how would you identify the position of the business right now.

and you would want financial the reason you don't own financials today, and before recession. weighing on financials is the threat of a recession. what we need to talk about going forward is we eall know they're going to die of old age and the fed does something to kill them. the question is what is the fed going to do? it's pretty baked in 50 in june, 50 in july and probably 50 in september my question is and what i'm concerned about is after the september increase, the fed needs to pause we've had 20 years of rate suppression. we can't reverse it in one year. >> say that again. you think they need to not just do a half point hike you want them to pause altogether >> no, i do think if we get to 2

to 2.25, inflation will be coming in. i think that the -- we need to pause before we go too far this country, they're based on 20-year suppressed interest rates. ia can't fix it in one year. that's my concern. i think once we get to two to two and a quarter, it would be prudent to wait. we need to see how it comes in before we're jumping to 3/3.5% >> i would characterize this as a risk management. it emphasizes risk management is an important thing it's something powell keeps in mind we all have to do this thinking through the unexpected outcomes, especially with balance sheet reduction right now. what if i said if we don't tackle the inflation problem

now, like they've been warning, we're going to face several years of persistently high inflation, chronic shortages throughout the economy maybe it's better to reset asset values to nip this >> i would say that a phrase a quarter to reflect on the data to see how inflation is coming in, tasee if there's additional oil that comes out of the middle east to alleviate energy prices. a pause doesn't mean that you're not going to start up again. a pause is going to allow everyone to see what increasing rates and taking real rates probably to zero what that does to asset value homes. it's not something we can do real fast. and i think that's a risk. i for one think inflation has to be controlled. i think, as you said, there

needs to be risk management. i think the proper way to do this is get to two to 2 and a quarter and pause and see what's going on >> a parting word, if you would, on maybe energy in particular. we talked to you at the beginning of the year about strong dollar, russian ukraine fallout.i'm concerned shortagese a next step. if the feds is more hawk gsz, maybe it can prevent those from developing >> there's no question there's a reason president biden is going to saudi arabia there is an understanding that energy costs need to be brought to heel. same with food there are real challenges and i'm not dismissing theal challenges i just am concerned that you go too far, too fast. i'm repeating myself, kelly. and you kill the patient, okay

so, this needs to be done but we just can't go full steam ahead to 3 to 3.5%, as though that's the magical solution to all our problems >> like you said the whole point is to get the frontline perspectives and yours absolutely counts as one of them from your industry at the hard heart of everything. thanks for taking the 25join us. appreciate it. still ahead, cruise stocks are going unreverse with only one positive week in the last few months and as we head to break, take a teok at the dow heat map with inl weighing on the blue chips. cater pillar's one of them we're back in a moment i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates

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welcome back, everybodiy we're near session lows. the dow's down 244 and still around 12,107. watch roku surging 12% on a report its employees are speculating netflix could buy it a source close to the situation telling cnbc there's no truth to acquisition rumors netflix up les than 6% and scott miracle grow on pace for the best year after lowering sales guidance for theiary higher commodity prices pressuring some of the fixed costs. s and, g down 9%

and spotify is moving higher after the first investor day in four years ceo saying business is doing well they expect 100-billion in revenue in the next decade and thinks podcasts have 30 to 50% margin potential and that has spot up 5% today. tyler. >> thank you very much and good afternoon, everyone. attorney general, merrick garland, promising the justice department will continue tado everything it can to protect supreme court justices after this morning's arrest near the home of justice brett kavanaugh after he said he was there to kill the conservative justice. >> this kind of behavior is obviously behavior we will not tolerate actual violence against justices strike at the hoeart of our democracy.

and we'll do everything we can to protect them and hold people accountable. and arresting a 36-year-old man convicted of killing an 8-year-old girl. the first death penalty in six years. president biden said he thinks voters in last night's primary sent a clear message they want both parties to do something about crime and gun violence the special tit that could get diabetes patients off of expensive medications. >> thanks and i'll see kwou soon still ahead. signet, nio, and we'll tell you which one and how to trade each into the results right after this

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welcome back to "the exchange." we still have big consumer names left well give you a action and

trade, all of which have zero esell ratings. down 35% this year as low-cost retailers see their margins squeezed by inflation. watching consume rb spending and full-year guidance lauren thomas has the story on 5 below. and chief market technician at piper sandler. and lauren, i think i was reading dollar rama headline we saw a dollar tree, dollar general perform really well. but what about 5 below >> like you just mentioned, that stock has been under pressure so far this year. i think there is fear priced into this name to your point because of the margins being under pressure. like there are at all of the

companies, that they will pile up and weigh ultimately on the bottom line. and one thing is unique to 5 below but this is a retailer who has benefitted in the past from the hot, new item. and i want to mention this to you because i know you have younger children do you remember fidget spinners? the glur you needed to make that slime. and these are trends, particularly among children. and it's a concern we haven't seen a hot new item in a while if your kids have mentioned anything that could particularly be a boon for 5 below. >> sadly no. >> we're watching. so, that's an issue. and just watching daelgs i think there's an expectation that out it is look could be revised

because of some of the inflation pressures. certain retailers have said that they have not yet seen the benefits and trade down effect from the consumer. you might think 5 below is a place people go for deals. but they don't sell milk and groceries. and no in the chart. the chart we've got. and multiple times they up to the down trend and back up to that. and maybe even back up to the 200-day moving average

and a lot of these retailers, target as an example they miss a number and getting bought after they come to the missb, and see these nice pops in trades and 5 below could fit into the category. and down at 135. and trend. signet jewellers down 28%. 50% short interest and around a short squeeze. the parent companies of names like cay and zales hoping for a bigger lift. and concerns are weighing and they have a strong 2021.

the story is they're in a post pandemic hangover period >> right exactly. it's really incredible jewelry within was one category that was resilient throughout covid. and you mentioned a wedding boom the most weddings in 2022. in over furr decades and this is something that they're hoping to benefit on more than 2 million weddings i actually have one shameless plug later this year and driving the trend right, you think of all the diamond required right and that is coming off of an incredible and up against a strong year. and i think that's a concern

and is it's invested in digital across its brands. the irks commerce sales were up two fold from prior year levels. and they're going to be a head wind on profits in the near term >> show us the ring. show us the ring that seems inappropriate >> i know. it's a good ring you did good let's turn to you on the stock what are you watching here >> while they're showing the ring, let's show the chart you show the chart in here we're in the nice downwarding trending price channel and that doesn't appear to a be changing at this point in time. i hope the wedding takes place and wore below the 50 and 200-day moving average you get a change in trend, we're going to see a close above $68

to reverse that down trend and as of now, that doesn't look like that is the case. lower for now. and for signet at this point >> maybe a little bit more achievable about a 10% move to the upside this was the name we were teasing that options are pricing maybe 14% move tonight all right. let's turn our attention away from retail. how about electric cars. the electric car company down 35%. traging their deliveries down. key metric to watch. shares doing better over the past month phil >> you know, kelly, i think what people are going to look for is the commentary about how quickly they expect sales to rebound as we see the covid lockdowns come off in shanghai and other parts of china as that happens, do they expect to go back on the same growth trajectory that was expected

last year or the year before some believe that will happen given the fact you have a country that is very intend on growing electric vehicles adoption and as a result, you should expect or many do expect that the chinese ev players will once again get back to the growth they exhibit canned before the it latest surge of covid cases in the shanghai lockdown that's going to be the focus when we hear from nio. >> it's amazing the success elon musk has had in preventing us from talking about another electric car maker where dauz ni kmorks in? as you look at the stock charts, the recent months tell you anything >> this is the most bullish set of charts we're discussing today. we pulled right to the prior highs and it looks like a lot of

the is perhaps done that withb that area of support we've reversed the down trend. at this point in time. and we still need to get back abovive the 200-day moving average but we need to ultimately do. and i would say we're on the way. i think we got a nice set up for a nice relief rally and we're going to be watching again the 200-day, 28, 25 and those highs from may 21 at 31.22 i will still take the ford braurngo over an electric vehicle. >> even with gas prices are where they are right now -- if someone handed you an ev >> we'll get you an electric one. thank you very much. we are we appreciate it today. as we go, let's getting a quick check on stocks, which are at

fresh session lows down 1%. the s&p is the worst performer down 1.2%. coming up, the airlines and hotel skrrks eos and they're down another 5% today. and as we go this month, we're offering financial planning tips to secure your money and future. >> here's a tip for your money, your future. for investors, navigating inflation requires having a well diversified portfolio with growth and value stocks to help boost total returns. along with interest from cash and bonds. dividend paying stocks also can help weather market volatility it's a porsche of a company's earnings paid out as a reward to shareholders often by companies with strong predictable cash flow. , even if stock prices slide, holdings that pay a stead issy dividend may offer stability rie.

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welcome back hotel and airline stocks have been climbing over the last three months mare ought up 14%. it's a different story for the cruise lines carnival falling in the same amount in the same period. look at what's behind your divergence >> they're not seeing the type of robust demand they're witnessing volumes are gradually improving, particular laly for small ships and the caribbean. they found the single biggest issue, according to travel agents is predeparture tests that require individuals returning to the u.s. to present a negative covid test. guests are worried about being stuck on a ship if they test positive more than half of a international travellers, found that the added uncertainty about potentially having to canc

alship due to testing positive would discourage them from traveling to our country the cruise lines are certainly global business but heavily dependent on the u.s morgan stanley says the risk is now growing for further equity being raised and that's why you're seeing the cruise lines down much more than the other travel stocks from their prepandemic highs. >> we hear this concern all the time what's the possible time frame for the white house lifting the testing requirement? >> that's it there is no time line that has been presented from the white house. they have not articulated the metrics nay were using when they would feel comfortable lifting the requirement. italy, greece, among others have lifted the requirement pressure is growing on washington last night bipartisan support from over 40 mayors from sang san francisco to miami tending a letter to the white house saying this specific testing

requirement is stopping people from visiting their respective cities the international traveller, you and i have discussed this, spends four times more than a domestic traveller when they visit the u.s. >> it's a huge money pot that is for sure we appreciate it still ahead. trade taing volumes have surged over the last few years. but you wouldn kw 'tnoit we'll talk team ceo. ♪♪

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welcome back are touch times coming for the stock trading business s is, c chair ginsler is tackling something at the heart of the market structure and something that has facilitated free flow trading. his proposals could diminish the influence of market influencers like our next guest. joining us from the piper sandler global exchange conference is ceo of global financial. >> chairman ginsler has given a major speech here and doug's not happy about payment for order flow

this is, brokers send their orders to market makers like you. he says it's riddled with conflicts of interest. he says there's only a few market makers that are doing this he wants more competition out there. is the average retail trader being disadvantaged? >> fundamentally, the answer is no payment for order flow has been around 20 to 30 years and it's fostered innovation and competition in the marketplace within the marketplace, we have roughly 250 broker dealer wealth management clients that send us brokerage deals. 90% of them don't take the payment for order flow with all due respect, the chair is conflating the payment for order flow with the ecosystem that has evolved which has a enabled them to have essentially zero commission [ inaudible ] it's actually factualy correct

>> i've been covering the markets for 32 years and my take is the retail investor has never had it better. so, for example, he's floated this proposal about let's do auctions for the retail people, there's too much power concentrated in there. is there a problem with having auctions. >> we welcome competition. we are not anti-exchanges. today, indeed, retail broker-dealers are free to send their orders to exchanges, to ats 'or wholesalers. there's no obligation for them to send it to virtu. we provide a service and execution and minimal price improvement, $12 million in minimal price improvement. we welcome it, it should be put on a more fair level playing field with wholesalers we welcome that. we're not internalizing all these orders it costs us tens and tens and

hundred of millions of dollars to source price improved liquidity and provide it back for our clients. >> you do provide price improvement and you do help improve and you get a better price for it can you explain how you do it. >> i'm not sure he's been so skeptical about it and some of the data and he spoke about it today the need for reform rule 605. essentially, the rule is antiquated and it doesn't cover the amount of size improvement and we've been very up front and very transparent about providing that level of data so what that means is in the 8,000 names, to the extent there's not liquidity on the analytic exchange, fundamentally the wholesalers are providing infinite liquidity and the inside price so if we get an order that no one's ever heard of and 200 shares on nasdaq and new york, we fill out a thousand shares at that inside price and that's

meaningful liquidity and we provide size improvement in a complete, an auction environment, who's going to provide that the liquidity fairy? it just doesn't exist. >> this is a complicated proposal and there's not a rule, and chair gensler is promoting this idea. do you think anything will happen here? do you think there will be a rule proposed or are we going to try to get more transparency more information, gensler may have to settle for you providing more information and exactly how much it costs for payment for order flow >> we're all about that. whatever the rule is in terms of providing transparency about how much payment for order flow and price improvement. we're all ears and we've made the proposals and it's like punching a ghost you have these high-level statements that aren't backed by any data we've provided real data about what we do we welcome the opportunity and

we welcome a roundtable. i'm not sure how the industry would welcome a chair. >> you're saying he hasn't talked to you? you're one of the biggest market makers in the united states. >> i have spoken to the chair. i would like some more time with him and i think him coming to the industry and coming to virtu and bdzing what we do and ultimately how competitive the marketplace is, he talks about two ore three wholesalers. there's about 10 of us now ubs is involved and jump street trading and susquehanna. there's not a barrier to entry and not an admission ticket, and every day we're banging heads with citadel securities to provide the best service and the best price to 250 clients and some days we lose and some days we win >> we'll see if this goes anywhere, doug cifu virtu ceo, the key point is when i started with cnbc in 1990 it was not

unusual for the trade to cost 9% when you engaged in the actual trade itself and compared to today when you're still dealing with zero dollar commissions the question is exactly how much does it cost for payment for order flow whatever that cost is, it's a tiny fraction of what it was more than 30 years ago so there is something to the idea that the retail investor has never gotten it better, but with that said, maybe we should still have more competition out there. >> the debate is feeding a frenzy thanks for bringing us that important interview. our doug pisani with cifu. mortgage demands are pushed to levels not seen in two decades are we about to see a flood of properties come tthmaono e rket or not stay with usmana your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today.

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♪ ♪ >> one more thing before we go mortgage demand plunging last week to levels not seen in more than 20 years.

diana olick is here now with the details. diana? >> well, kelly, it actually fell to the lowest level in 22 years last week as interest rates went on the upswing again, demand about half of what it was a year ago. the average rate on the 30-year fix head fallen back a little bit in may, but rose again last week from 5.33% to 5.4 according to the mortgage bankers association and that's with loans with 20% down. just as a comparison, that rate was 3.15% a year ago as a result, refinance demand continues to tank as you would expect, but the bigger pain point seems to be for homebuyers the purchase mortgage demand fell 7% for the week and was 27% below where it was a year ago. the housing market has clearly taken a sharp turn spurred by covid. sales are falling, but prices are still rising a new report from core logic showed prices still gaining in april up 21% up from a year ago and while there is new supply coming on to the market and homes are sitting slightly

longer supply is still historically low. large cities in the south especially florida seeing both the hottest prices and the lowest supply. unfortunately, the homebuilders haven't been helping much with housing starts falling in april and we'll get the numbers for may coming up. >> we've been seeing falling lumber prices as a leading indicator. you want lumber prices going up because that would tell you that there is at least demand for a significant amount of inventory still coming online. if the opposite is happening then it's bullish for home prices >> maybe i mean, we keep expecting home prices to soften that is the prediction that they will eventually soften, but you have this very bizarre market where there's still a lot of the demand out there and no supply, and even though mortgage rates are rising some people still want to buy. they want to get in and that's keeping prices higher, kelly. >> there's that chart of lumber they referenced and just an

incredible up and down roller coaster move and we're now close to it. diane a thank you. we appreciate it our diana olick reporting. we'll look at the housing market that could hold up despite weakening demand "power lunch" begins right ♪ ♪ ♪ thank you, kelly and welcome, everybody, to "power lunch. i'm tyler matheson, here's what's ahead on a busy hour ahead. with crude at $122 a barrel we will hear from one of the biden administration most powerful advisers can he solve the problem by convincing oil-producing nation to increase their output and new talks to re-open ukraine's grain ports and without a breakthrough, there are warnings of a global food crisis and if not resolved, already high food prices could rise even more we do, kelly, have a big hour ahead. >> yes, we do,