husband, and, of course, melody hobson, current starbucks chair. a lot of moving parts here but, yes, they still need approval from owners and the nfl itself >> but, boy, if you are a t tepper, you're feeling good. >> imagine what jerry jones and the cowboys are feeling. >> true. thanks everybody for watching "power lunch." "closing bell" right now the major averages giving back most of this week's gains the most important hour of trading starts now welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen take a look at where we stand in the market down about 300 points the low of the day down 345. most sectors in the s&p 500 are red. everyone, that is, except for communication services pockets of green, names like alphabet, meta and netflix at the top of the list on takeover chatter. small caps down 1.75%.

crude oil is spiking up 2.5% energy stocks are holding up better than the rest of the market but are still in the red. real estate and utilities are the worst performing groups. the most active traded names on the new york stock exchange. didi global and some of the internet names in china have been flying on the opening of the chinese economy and the stimulus flowing there alibaba up 14% credit suisse is a loser off earnings, and that was a big source of weakness overnight in europe nio continues to be among the most actively traded every day the past few weeks coming up on the show today we will talk to the ceo of campbell soup, which is in the green for the year, higher on the back of strong earnings and strong sales guidance how inflation is factoring into those results. earlier today i had the chance to ask some questions of ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy at the yale ceo summit we'll bring you parts of that conversation including his message for corporate leaders. first up, today's market action and the return of mike

santoli. mike, what are you focused on today? sara, this week, the last two weeks, the market has been kind of ping-ponging on a very short table in kind of a trading range but interestingly as we all wait for the cpi number, the market doesn't just sit still and wait it kind of tests the upside and down side. that's what when little sideways stretch is right here. in effect, the s&p is trying to kind of get back up into this year long range, 4,200 we're still 8% or 9% above those lows as we absorb more than 3% on the ten-year treasury yield, close to 3% on shorter maturities and then, of course, oil clicking to new highs in wti so you could look at this and say the markets may be priced in a lot including the down grades to earnings. we just don't know if it's fully reflected. take a look at the path of second quarter earnings consensus forecast for the s&p 500. this is the end of june, when the quarter itself ends. this is from credit suisse and it shows you the historical trend the past 20 years. this is very normal for

estimates to start a bit too high, get revised down throughout the quarter that's when earnings season reporting starts right there and then, of course, companies routinely on average beat the estimates. by this measure it's not that alarming what we're seeing even though we have some very, very loud and impactful warnings from big companies. energy is helping this number this year. we just have to see if, in fact this is anything more than the normal lowering of expectations into the reporting season. >> even with lowered expectations, mike, people are still remarking on how elevated earnings are given all the negativity right now around the economy and around rates and everything >> especially for the remainder of the year. for the second half of the year, those estimates have not been coming down yet. that's the argument, i think, taking place whether that will be severely cut back in terms of what we expect to earn in the second half, in which case the market does not look as fairly valued as maybe it otherwise would here around 17 times

forward earnings >> mike santoli, we will see you soon thank you. for more on what to do, managing director holly newman croft. it's great to have you back on >> thanks, sara. great to be here >> what are you telling your clients about earnings expectations and how that's filtering in to the overall market, another big declining day. >> earnings are still strong while we're continuing to position our portfolios very defensively and hold cash, we're not exiting equities and we're holding some dry powder for when it's time to go back in. >> when is it time to go back in how will you know that >> you know, i think when the fed can really start to slow the economy. we're starting to see that inflation is starting to come down home sales are starting to decline. this will have to work its way through the system, and inflation is at such a high number, we don't expect to get

back to post-crisis levels anytime soon it will take a few years so we continue to maintain defensive posturing in our portfolios and stress the importance of asset allocation both amongst sectors and within asset classes, and, you know, buckle your seat belt it's going to be a little bit of a bumpy ride >> we feel that. we've been covering the volatility when you say defensive posture, what do you mean, real estate stocks utilities? that sort of thing >> certainly, yeah in the equity sector we like income-producing stocks. we think active management is really key here, and you can find that amongst all subasset classes within equities. what does that mean? that means companies with strong balance sheets, companies with low leverage so they're not so interest rate sensitive and, of course, utilities, reits, companies that have a yield during income stream associated

with them. in the fixed income sector, we're staying short duration you and i talked about munis >> it's been good. >> they've had a nice run. short duration munis up 2.5% in the last month and we continue to like that we like floating rate funds so we're not subject to interest rate risk. and then we're equally under weight domestic and international equities are trading below 20% below their long-term averages, so we think there will be an opportunity there. but we are overweight alternatives we continue to be. >> as you look, you said asset allocation, diversification is key. what about commodities is it too late to buy some exposure oil keeps climbing >> yeah, i think we just saw that with mike and his chart oil is high and going higher, and we do think commodities continues to have an important place in portfolios as a buffer to inflation it's had a really nice run

but, remember, over the last decade commodities is still negative we do think it still has room to grow we have commodities in almost all of our portfolios. >> and you said inflation -- you think has peaked, i think you said we're going to get a big report on friday. >> we are and i think the expectation it will come down, albeit slightly, and probably still over 8%. that's a very big number and to get to the long-term estimate of 2%, that's going to take a number of years people watching your show today, they're feeling inflation. you're feeling it at the gas pump , in the grocery store. we're seeing it with retail inventory. inflation is still a very big concern to the investor and the consumer >> do you think the economy can avoid recession in that kind of environment and earnings can hold up to the point that mike just made? >> mike saying they're going down so companies can show outperformance, maybe managing expectations the fed is trying really hard to

thread a needle and it's a delicate game, right raise rates enough to slow growth but not slow it too much to throw us into a recession we're not seeing a recession this year. it's certainly not out of the question for 2023. but hopefully we'll achieve a soft landing >> so you manage a lot of high net worth clients' money what is the level of concern, fear, what kind of sentiment are you getting from your clients right now? >> we spend a lot of time up front on risk tolerance, end goals, and, remember, two years ago if you invested at a 60/40 portfolio, it's now 75/25 because the market is still way up over the last couple of years. we try to manage their expectations, and i believe the market is working, the market is doing what it's supposed to be doing. >> it's healthy? it feels ickey

>> it feels yucky and it's never fun when it goes down but given all that's going on in the world -- the russia/ukraine crisis, high inflation, covid policy, raising rates, i would be more nervous if the market were up. the market is telling us we're in an uncertain world and we have to make sure we're invested appropriately to weather the storm. >> it is interesting that you see today in a sea of red what's up the arc innovation fund, more speculative stocks like a roku and draft kings and spotify -- do you see that as a signal maybe people are trying to pick a bottom those are some of the names hit the hardest. >> i think the market might come back a little bit now if we see that inflation number come down on friday, but we expect we're going to continue to have a really bumpy ride for a while. >> yeah. down about 15% off the highs on the s&p 500 already. holly, thank you good to see you. >> great to see you. >> holly newman kroft.

after the break, hot soup. shares of campbell's soup outperforming the market this year getting another lift today on the back of earnings we'll ask ceo mark clouse how he's been able to navigate inflation next you're watching "closing bell. we're down about 326 on the dow heading back to session lows hey businesses! you all deserve something epic! so we're giving every business, our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated.

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check out today's stealth mover, scotts miracle gro. shares under heavy pressure after issuing a full-year profit and revenue warning because of higher commodity costs and lower than expected retail orders. downgraded the stock from hold to buy slashing the price target to $85 from $185 it's pretty much been on a one way ticket lower campbell's soup shares getting a pop adding to gains for the year the company which has soup, goldfish crackers and other things in its portfolio posting better than expected results in the quarter raising its annual sales forecast on price hikes and easing supply chain constraints. joining us now is campbell soup ceo mark clouse. great to have you. >> sara, great to be back with you. >> in the sales environment, we knew you werngs or passing along higher prices, but i think the market was surprised

as to how much that's happening and how well it's working. talk us through what that's been like >> so we've been staying, obviously, very close to inflation and trying to understand in a very specific way what parts of our portfolio are feeling that pressure. and we've been trying to match that up with the timing of the rhythm of pricing. we've taken two waves of pricing so far, designed, as i said, very much match up where we've seen inflation we did talk about today a third wave, again, that's really reflecting very specifically within our portfolio where we're seeing additional inflation pressure primarily in areas like wheat and flour and oils and so we're trying to stay right in sync with that as best we can and, of course, pricing isn't the only tool in the bag and it's really important that we stay focused on keeping the value right on our products and i think so far we've done a good job of trying to strike that right balance between solving for inflation but keeping things

affordable >> are you going to continue to raise prices on items like goldfish and canned soup >> well, certainly only if inflation continues to go up, and i think right now with the pricing that we announced in april, that's our third wave of pricing, we feel very good about where we're positioned right now. it's a tough environment to predict exactly what we're going to see going forward, but i think that as we do move forward we recognize that there are limits, and we have to be, again, focusing on things like our supply chain and productivity, areas we can help manage costs so we're not just solely reliant on price because, as i said, getting this balance right between value with consumers and meeting the pressures of inflation, very, very important balance to get right. >> so the bummer in your report, mark, according to investors and analysts, you reiterated earnings guidance which suggests

fourth quarter earnings guidance comes in 47 cents below what the market was expecting how are you explaining that today? >> i think we remain right on track with what our expectations were for the year. q3 came in essentially where we expected it to come in, a limb bit stronger on top line as we saw a little bit of a faster recovery in supply chain which is a great thing, and a little bit of pressure on the margin side as inflation has continued to grow. but as we project out through balance of the year i would say from an earnings standpoint we remain right on track with what we expected. >> so supply chain is getting better what do you mean what's happened? >> yes, so, as you know, sara, we've talked about it before it's been a tricky road to navigate as it relates to supply chain. i think everything from material availability to labor, and i think our team has done an extraordinary job first really working on labor to make sure

our proposition and attractiveness for our jobs and our facilities are highly competitive, and we've done a very nice job in filling the gaps that we had getting the plants back up to operational levels that are consistent with being fully staffed. and then we've also been able to add capabilities as we've been moving forward and adding ways in which we're able to be more nimble, our inventory management and our planning tools are much more robust. and that's enabled us to really unlock more firepower as we both tried to stay up to pace with demand but also begin to replenish inventories for retailers as we've been kind of catching up the last couple of quarters >> what are you seeing, mark, from the consumer as far as the health of the consumer are you seeing signs that they're trading down in value and product, potentially private label? how is the consumer holding up in your view >> i think we have to be very

vigilant in this particular area, and i do think there is some trading down that's occurring. i think one of the things, though, that's interesting for us -- let's take a category like soup, for example. although there's pricing there and a little bit more pressure from private label, you are also seeing a lot of consumers trading into the soup category, right, so as people are compromising on dinners out, they're moving into categories where we're very prevalent and our portfolio over history has proven to be really resilient in these tough economic moments whether it's soup or pasta sauce, we tend to do very well even if you're seeing some pricing on those roducts, the categories overall are still very good values for consumers and i think that's why you see the performance of our business holding up even in the face of some of the pricing we've taken. >> any ingredients you can't get or access to any kind of food stuff that you need to make product because of what's going on in the war or china or

whatever in the world? >> i think we've been pretty nimble in adjusting where we can, making sure we're not single sourcing ingredients, finding alternative ways to meet that demand. there are some places, though, and as we talked about today on the call, where we're still seeing some material availability challenges. one of the places where we're feeling perhaps the most pressure is on our v-8 business in aluminum cans not a lot of problems on the ingredients side but some constraints on the packaging side so we are expecting a couple quarters for that to fully recover. we're making progress and kind of checking off the list, but there are still a few places where we're seeing pressure. >> do you see soup as an economic tell when soup grows market share or gains customers, does that bode ill for the economy? >> no, not necessarily i think that we consistently play a role in a variety of different occasions and different economic environments.

do i think it's more likely that a consumer might trade into the soup category a little more frequently especially as you think about brands like chunky which continues to do extremely well in this environment because it's a great value and even in days where the economy might be stronger, you still see a strong cooking behavior and other consumer catalysts or drivers for the category one of the things we've been trying to demonstrate over the last several years the resiliency of the soup category is probably a lot stronger than people thought and i think as we've been able to return focus and support to that business we've seen it performing extremely well and now in a variety of different environments >> no, a lot of people thought millennials would never buy canned soup before the pandemic. that was the story on your stock. you're proving them wrong. >> they're eating a lot of chicken noodle and tomato soup >> good to know. mark clouse, ceo of campbell soup we are on the markets.

coming back a little bit the dow down 250 only four dow stocks are higher now. salesforce, nike, cater pillar home depot and mcdonald's, biggest drive right now. the s&p down a percent we are seeing higher rates ten-year back above 3% three big named hotel chains seeing strong demand for the summer season. the strongest they've seen the same might not be true for another part of the travel market we'll tell you who that might be next and as we head to break check out shares of altria the worst performer hit after morgan stanley downgraded the tobacco company to underweight saying higher gas prices and weaker consumer sentiment could weigh carteoniget sales the stock is down.

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a number of high-profile travel ceos have been on cnbc this week talking about super strong demand for the summer and

beyond, but the same isn't true for the cruise line. seema mody has the story >> reporter: morgan stanley found that the single biggest issue for cruise travelers who are worried about sailing and testing positive for covid on return and being stuck on a ship analysts cutting the price target on all three cruise lines taking carnival from $1730 to $ a share. prices are moving in the opposite direction with bank of america citing softness in pricing trends in the last month with customers booking closer to the date of departure to get a good deal. it comes ahead of carnival's earnings later this month with all three cruise stocks down double digits this year. morgan stanley says the risk of these companies having to raise more capital is growing. sara >> carnival at the bottom of the list again this year down 36%.

seema, thanks. still ahead, mark mahaney on spotify's profit margin forecast that stock on the move plus, i had the opportunity earlier to ask ukraine's president, volodymyr zelenskyy, questions during the yale ceo summit earlier he had a clear message for corporate america. the dow down 222

this morning ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy spoke at the yale ceo summit where he addressed global leaders in business and politics i had a chance to ask him questions including what action he would like to see from american ceos right now in the war against russia >> for us the most important thing is to see concrete steps, that you ask concrete people and your companies can take. these steps are related to making our lives easier in this war. i think this is our common war the companies that are represented in the russian market should leave if that is possible for them to leave russia completely. the most important thing is they

do not only leave russia but do not pay taxes to the russian financial system, because this money for this russian war machine is killing ukrainians. >> given what you know about the russian people, russia, president putin, what will it take to move them to negotiate or curtail their aggression? >> we need a powerful ukraine to do that. we need a powerful ukraine a powerful ukraine is not ukraine as a state that fights against russia alone which is situating its troops in ukraine. powerful ukraine is a country which is united with the european union, with every country of the european union. not just on paper but i mean as

an alliance of global leaders. ukraine is united with european union, is united with the west it is united with the united states of america. it is united with the positions of canada. aligned with australia also aligned with the countries of the african continent and with asia. we have to make sure that -- >> one ceo who was there in attendance, the ceo and founder who started a partnership for refugees, a nonprofit of 200 companies that work with refugees helping settle them in their new countries. i asked him what steps companies should be taking to help displaced ukrainians even from afar >> i think we have a responsibility to humanitarian side of things, which is cash. he already asked for it and it's

happening. i saw it companies are participating. but also employment. online education, distance employment today the partnership for refugees has over 200 companies to support ukrainian refugees, which is something we have not seen before. so this level of support needs to be materializing into an action, and i see some sign of it so we still have a lot of work to do. >> hamdi asked president zelenskyy about this issue of refugees, and zelenskyy pleaded with companies support ukrainians abroad financially until they come back and he would like to see them come back. he says they would like to come back a lot of talk about the rebuilding and the ginormous and expensive that will take more on cnbc.com take a look at where we stand now in the markets we're down 214 seeing a little bit of a comeback off the lows. two sectors now positive in the s&p.

communication services and energy, which makes sense because oil popped about 2.5% today. the nasdaq down half a percent some strength in names like alphabet and meta. the chinese internet names climb and software like salesforce, docusign tech is an underperformer, though, overall. coming up wells fargo's scott wren tells us whether investors should look to buy on pullbacks like this and which names he's watching and you can tune in to "closing bell" on the go by flong tolwihe podcast on your favorite podcast app. leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq,

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place spot back above 3% so selling treasuries yields go a little bit higher today. amazon.com giving a little bit more back from its big rally over the last week and a half or so down 1.4% tesla is popping 1.4%. twitter on a report that twitter will share more data on musk, to musk on bots, wti crude up 2.5%, continuing to make new multimonth highs here and apple a little bit weaker down a third of a percent only a few dow stocks higher in the rally. salesforce, nike, caterpillar. up next, mark mahaney responding to spotify that stock is higher that story and a weak outlook for intel d anroku when we take you inside the market zone

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we are now in the closing bell market zone mike santoli is back to break down the crucial moments and mark mahaney on spotify and wells fargo scott wren on the volatile market. major averages in the red off the lows we hit earlier this hour the dow down about 356 points at the session low, mike. some stuff to like for the bulls in this sell-off yes, we're down a percent in the s&p, but there are a number of bright spots in the session, energy, communication services, single stocks, and, now that we're off the lows, the s&p is still higher for the week. >> really we're about eight trading days, sara, into this sideways digestion mode that we got into right before memorial day weekend. it's indecisive, a 2% to 3% range from high to low in the

s&p 500 over that period i guess you could argue it's probably dangerous to infer too much with too much conviction but you could argue that with oil still on the march, with obviously the dollar surging, with the fact that the fed is really back in the game and yields are higher, the market is hanging in there okay. clearly a lot will be determined by the cpi number which i feel like it will result in the peak inflation story remaining plausible but not yet persuasive we'll see if that creates -- >> we have cpi on friday which could be definitive. ahead of that the ecb meeting tomorrow morning you mentioned the strength of the dollar europe has been inching closer, maybe more reluctantly but it is moving to raising interest rates or setting the ground. we expect tomorrow to set the ground for the rate hike for july it's a global move yesterday australia shocked everyone with 50 basis point hike >> yields are moving higher globally because there is this general sense central banks are in this

catch-up mode and, of course, when it comes to inflation in europe not only is that the sole mandate, it's a much purer read on energy over there because of how it's calculated. it's not going to get sudden relief on the statistical inflation numbers. so, yeah, i think that's a factor is it going to be a surprise if and when it happens? it's not clear >> no. and it's helped the dollar come off the highs. >> it's the yen that's crashing. >> the yen is crashing again because they are not budging they want their currency weak and they are getting it. look at intel, one of the bigger drags on the dow after the chip maker's management warned at a conference supply chain challenges have gotten worse than previously expected that news prompting citigroup to slash estimates. shares of western digital popping today after announcing it will consider splitting its hard drive and flash memory businesses as part of a settlement with elliott manageth the stock is lower, though kristina partsinevelos joins us.

kristina, the intel ceo outlined a few reasons for the warning. what are they? >> there are some headwinds they are saying this is why this quarter will be tougher than we anticipated. the first is the shanghai closure. it will have a trickle effect. a second reason is a lot of companies are still struggling to get some of their components. we've had intel ceo on cnbc before warning that especially chip equipment makers are struggling and that will contribute to the supply crunch well into 2024 for that sector and the last one is a concerning one because it shows inventory levels are starting to come down and that's because of lower consumer demand. they're warning about these three things that contributed to the downgrade. the other point that struck me as significant was the cfo also said expect to have good cash flow once we have made the necessary investments over the next three years, which means of course they will be spending more cash in the rising rate environment, building their foundries in ohio just this july

i spoke to a contact that said they will be breaking ground and this comes when taiwan semiconductor's chairman just yesterday said it's a little bit more expensive than anticipated to build foundries here on u.s. soil this is all coming at a time and you can see the share price down half a percent right now all interesting comments coming from intel >> and long-term inflationary, too, if it's more expensive. we knew it was going to be more but even more than expected. kristina, thanks kristina partsinevelos intel is making a big move, mike, which makes you wonder how much of the changing demand environment is already priced into the stocks. >> it's so tough when it comes to a name like intel because it is hated by the street if you're a contrarian you say it looks cheap nobody likes it. a multiyear investment cycle the past five years it really has paid to buy intel around 40 multiple times it's been the low end of the range sometimes you have a chance to ride it above 60 it's very difficult when it comes to old tech. value traps abound

that's why it's tough when it's exposed to the lowest or most challenged parts of the chip market right now that's why it's a tough game i think you could make the case it's way out of favor at these levels >> and why it's underperforming some of the other ones today, not just on the warning but the idea it's in a weaker spot roku citing speculation about a potential takeover by netflix. julia boorstin joins us. is there any truth to these rumors >> a source close to the situation tells me there is not truth to these rumors. we have to look at why the rumors are out there and primarily because the valuation of roku has dropped so dramatically, the stock is so far off its highs, and these are two companies closely tied roku spun off from netflix back in 2009. we have to remember that as netflix looks to build out its ad technology before it launches an ad-supported version of the service, it's going to look to

do some acquisitions analysts think they would be doing smaller acquisitions to get the ad tech rather than buy a company such as roku roku has the legacy business of selling the boxes, which is not necessarily going to be complementary to netflix >> is netflix rumored around right now -- is there chatter around a takeover here with that stock having fallen on a 60% or so in the last year? >> well, there's a lot of talk about whether netflix is more fairly valued now be a whether it's undervalued a debate whether netflix is a tech stock or a media stock. just look at how much it sold off. and part of that is because the street has really reevalued what kind of company it is, investing in content, in contest rights, getting into advertising, and their growth has not only slowed but their subscriber base is shrinking and will continue in the second quarter it's still a pretty big

acquisition target it would be hard to imagine what type of company could buy them but we do expect them to make smaller acquisitions and build out their own ad technology so they can compete in that ad-supported streaming space >> julia, thank you. julia boorstin surprising i don't know, mike, to see roku jump 10% maybe not if you look at the 80% decline off its highs. >> i think that's the premise there. a lot of the stocks that were pandemic winners that have flamed out are getting a little bit of relief right here and even though the netflix rumor has now been denied and never really seemed all that plausible, the notion that roku might be in the market for a partner that maybe was a transitional technology, a tool or feature as opposed to a long-term business, that's definitely defensible as a position i just don't know if that's what's moving it right now as for netflix it's still a $90 billion market cap anything big enough to buy you

would think would have a hard time on a regulatory basis to do so >> in the ark innovation base, spotify. the stock is jumping as the company outlined the growth potential for the podcast business mark mahaney, evercore head of research at the event joins us now. this is still one of your favorite stocks, right did you like what you heard today? >> it's not one of our top three stocks it remains in the speculative growth category -- >> i thought you always loved it >> i have but i prefer to go with the more value growth, amazon, google and booking spotify, the key thing that came out of today's event was gross margins. the reason the stock has corrected 60% year to date is in part a sell-off away from the speculative tech growth area but in part the company disappointed investors again in terms of its gross margin outlook for the year we learned three things. one they committed to this year being the peak drag from their podcasting investment and new disclosure on their gross

margins and core music business. it's higher than we thought. and, third, they did commit to getting to 30% gross margins over the next three years. i think you can kind of count on that so valuation becomes more interesting with the 60% correction in the shares >> i remember the cfo was on last earnings or so, and i asked him like seven times, are you netflix? the street is worried about them being the next netflix in terms of subscriber losses and the stay-at-home reversal trade. has this company successfully convinced investors that's not what's happening >> they haven't hit the netflix wall yet the numbers to think about, netflix has 600 million to 700 million total number of users. on an apples to apples basis spotify probably more than 400 million. i don't think there's a reason they've hit the maturation wall netflix has reached. much earlier stage but they are further along in terms of generating new revenue streams

like advertising netflix is realizing they need to be a premium business spotify is ahead of them there one of the reasons i prefer spotify to netflix i'm not a buyer here spotify still gives you 20% growth and you have a gross margin catalyst. it's next year and the question is it may not be until the end of the year. >> mike santoli, how does the valuation on spotify look more than 60% off its highs >> it's still very much a we're just going to go for growth and obviously they had their margin targets which will make the numbers work better. based on what it's cast now, it's not really supporting where the stock trades and it's not really about that. what's fascinating from spotify's perspective, their answer, if they wanted to actually persuade people it's worth a bet, we're netflix in 2015 we're netflix before everyone assumed netflix was the category killer and would be the dominant could are app in streaming and

it would have been a great ride until you reached saturation to me you can have it both ways in terms of defining spotify in terms of netflix >> mark mahaney, thank you for joining us good to talk to you. evercore stocks are heading south into the close. we're still off the worst levels of the session, down more than 1% on the s&p. scott wren joins us, senior global market strategist scott, what do you tell investors and clients to do on a day like today are you a buyer? >> you have to have an outlook that's longer than three months or six months if you're going to be a buyer in stocks here. since the beginning of march we've been reducing risk in portfolios particularly for people who have a very short-term view or they have a cash liquidity need over the short term but if your view is out 24 plus months, 12, 24, 36 plus months on bad days but particularly bad

weeks, and we're obviously well off the lows here, you want to try to take advantage of that. i think you can be patient there's likely more down side before this is all over before we work our way higher >> how should you be positioned now? what sort of protection should you have >> let me tell you what we've been doing we've reduced the cyclicality and backed off financials. we backed off of industrials, consumer discretionary we've upgraded health care and staples and utilities. we've taken money out of equities which we had leaned hard towards for 18 or 20 months and put that into the intermediate fixed income, intermediate part of the curve, less sensitive to interest rate hikes. right now we've shifted in the last three months from capital appreciation mode to a more defensive we're going to have to ride out some rough times type of mode. probably the market will be down, the s&p 500, based on our target this year about 10% this

year of course that's after three gigantic gains the last three years giving a little bit of that up. but then there's probably about 10% to 12% upside from here to the end of 2023, at least in our opinion. >> why what turns the tide there? >> well, i think what will turn the tide we'll get through -- the fed will be aggressive here clearly. we will have the other central banks that are pretty aggressive, but i think that's going to end early in 2023 we're going to sort through that certainly through the first half of 2023. but i think we're going to see interest rates lower as we move back to the second hatch of 2023 we think the ten-year yield might be 3.75, and we're going to be in 2024 and don't have numbers out yet but moving to a gdp number where inflation we think will be 3.5 by the end

of -- cpi 3.5 by the end of next year, potentially lower in 2024. >> how can you tell that cpi would be 3.5 next year we have no idea with this war. >> it's a long way out, sara if you would have asked me where inflation would be, the supply chain has taken longer to ease up than what we thought and that's the top level things that are causing the market problems because of what the fed has to do in response, the input prices and things like that things will ease up in terms of the supply chain, in terms of the fed. those kinds of things that will set up late in 2023 the market

anticipating a better 2024 >> a lot has to go right, to your point >> no doubt. >> an optimistic take than most. scott wren, thank you for joining us >> thanks, sara. >> two minutes to go, mike what do you see in the internals? the s&p down 1.1%. >> essentially dialing back to where we closed on friday in the s&p. we keep swaying within this narrow range the new york stock exchange declining volume almost twice advancing volume and this has been slosh being around positive to negative day by day, equal weighted s&p underperforming take a look at the two-year treasury note yield. this has been on the march it's tracking oil, tracking the idea the fed will have to stay vigilant until we know anything different, surpassed the 2.75 level the two-year note yield got up to about a month ago. very early may the volatility index around 24 it's built this floor in the mid-20s at the moment.

we have just been going sideways we have a baseline level of nervousness and the fed outlook. a lot of people worried about the volatility of the vix index. that's the latest thing that people have decided to worry about. it's gotten quite low to where we saw markets roll over a few times. >> thank you, mike santoli as we head into the close here, we have a split in technology developing in terms of performance. strength today in tesla, jd.com, netflix, facebook, they're all higher today that's helping the nasdaq outperform on the day. amazon, microsoft, apple, nvidia lower, amd the chip names, one sector is positive and that is energy.

the s&p 500 down about a full percent. every other dow stock lower. goldman sachs with honeywell and united health. that will do it for me on "closing bell. now to "overtime" with scott sara, thanks i'm scott wapner you heard the bells. we're just getting started right here i'll speak live to fundstrat tom lee who will argue stocks can rally the second half of the year we will test him on that call and where he thinks the real money will be made in the months ahead. we begin with our "talk of the tape." whether the rally back from the lows is about to run into a brick wall of rising fuel prices and falling earnings let's ask dan greenhouse he's here with m