nasdaq off 16 points the 10-year, as well, that note sitting at guys, that does it for us. >> good luck today. >> thank you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" begins right now. >> god thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber futures are weak after wednesday's sell-off as yields in the u.s. and europe tick higher on the back of ecb. inflation is broadening out. jobless claims the highest since january in the states. our roadmap begins with the inflation jitters and recession risks with prices at the pump continuing to rise average prices jumping 28 cents a gallon in just the last week >> shares of alibaba giving up gains, signs for hope of a

revived ant ipo. remember that in seem to be fades after a brief moment and tesla pushes up despite factory shutdowns, output from the shanghai plant tripled in may and an upgrade from ubs this morning we will get to the higher oil and gas prices, jim. we talked yesterday about the degree to which energy is offsetting some of the declines in metals, agriculture, apparel, but gasoline demand as we're starting summer driving season, is not showing any sign of slowing down >> no. that's the problem i saw incredible lows. somebody has a copper piece today. i'm not buying that. i am buying the fact there's nothing to stop oil. janet yellen with the cartel

the place in blue on the lower left, that's where the oil is, not in saudi arabia, and you can do all you want with a cartel, give me a break. why don't you go sit down with mike werth sit down with scott sheffield, of course speaking to the president, in texas where the oil could expand given the prices we have now there we are restraining global -- please stop already they are so clueless versus our own people who know so much about the oil market >> jim, yesterday alina croft made the point and others have about refining capacity. i know you talk about production and you've said obviously the same thing about getting people together and getting more out of the ground, but we've got a real issue with refining capacity in fact, that may be the more important stanranglehold than t actual production. >> they're running these plants

flat out you're not supposed to do that you can't run them at 101% you can say wait a second, they're getting paid for it, and they are look, the southeast made a major decision a long time ago that keystone was going to go through. they were going to build refineries to be able to handle the heavy crude. there are people in this government who say it didn't matter once again, they're in complete denial the president said you know what we're going to do withal tern tif energy, i'm sorry, we'll never power cars with solar. there may be electric cars but it's a small port. what galls me is we have the ability, yes, not necessarily to raise refinery, but these oil companies would change what they're doing, devin returning a huge amount of money, scott sheffield at pioneer returning a huge amount of money they've switched directions and listen to the president because even though it will take a year -- >> a year.

>> -- a forward curve would change if they would sit down. >> right all right. we still do have climate change to deal with it's interesting you talk about electric vehicles $5 gas will move more people to buy electric vehicles it would seem doesn't matter where you're plugging it in the you're plugging it in and coal is the major source of electricity, you're not doing much to control the footprint. carbon, solar, wind, 70% by ten years or so in california. >> i think all over there are people doing good things that the government seems to be unaware. american electric in ohio has lowered the price of electricity so it is a better place to build intel than anyplace else that's a key part of what goes into technology. david, i know you're doing your special june 22nd at 8:00 p.m., but i feel strongly that

everything our government is doing involves saudi arabia, involves europe, but does not involve the western part of texas, as if somehow that's a different country and an alien country. >> it isn't any of those things. carl, i spent a good amount of time in that part and new mexico as well, because the basin is bigger than state of pennsylvania, excuse me. and we get into it and that is going to be -- i can't ask for a better news cycle, i guess, carl, in terms of trying to promote our documentary a couple weeks from now >> yes, indeed, david. jim, what was instructive yesterday was the response of natural gas to this freeport lng outage a lot of that would be exported to europe, which raises the question, what is our responsibility at this point to europe given the pain we're going through ourselves? >> i think we can make all the difference if we and australia and qatar

were able to transfer our natural gas, a force majeure by the president, and europe would be about trying to be able to get the natural gas they needed to, it's a big game changer. here it is again the natural gas companies are ready to play. the lng companies are ready to play but they are uniquely being shut out in terms of day-to-day talks because the president does not want to be seen with dirty fossil fuel. david, the president has a base, and the base, some would like to see gasoline probably at $8, $9. they want so badly to have the country be green but you have to be brown to be green. >> the energy transition is going to take time i think that's a fair point. >> yes >> your point is you can't force it as quickly even if you raise prices dramatically. that said, you'll have to put a price on carbon over time and

maybe sooner than later, and that will move many of these companies to even pick up their own actions in terms of reducing carbon footprint if they're going to be getting paid for it even more. i imagine you could do carbon capture in a big way we'll get into this in the documentary. back to your point, natural gas, we're flatout to, they're sold out, i mean, freeport or whatever they've got is going -- first of all, most of it goes to asia under contracts that were signed years ago >> you can do force majeure. the president can say, listen, national defense act, ukraine, that goes to europe. only poland is really ready for it there are ways to be able to get around that. we have natural gas. we have 100 years of natural gas, but, carl, we don't build pipelines, and the president has uniquely gone even more aggressive in the last few week in terms of siting and how long it could take. this president's really into

fossil fuel companies. i'm sorry. it's true. he's anti-fossil fuel, and he knows his base is like that. and you know what, that's the way it's going to be i don't know what exxon is saying, but the president doesn't seem to realize these companies are changed companies and they're ready to talk about being greener and recapture, but the president doesn't seem to understand that. it's okay. i'm not being political. i'm just telling you, david. >> we're good. we're on watch for any kind of pivot regarding that, jim. we'll talk about it more in the months to come meantime, a volatile premarket for chinese names including alibaba. they originally moved higher on the report that china considered removing ant's ipo, but they have no plan to initiate an ipo citing with guidance for

regulators jim, a fuzzy picture regarding reopening versus some incremental lockdowns over there. what do you think? is the door reopening on china tech >> it doesn't sound like it. i know you were talking about the idea they got ahead of themselves and on the list of -- look, dd, yes, they gave them that by the way, that could be good news but, david, i have to tell you, once again, america's trapped in these stocks the people who bought these stocks have come on, talked them up and what did they do, dump them? >> they've had a rough run but a great couple weeks other than today. this turnaround in alibaba was strange. the nipo would have been the largest ipo of all time, if i recall, when i was tracking it pretty closely and then it just ran into a wall they ran afoul of regulators that's when, people were asking me where jack ma is and people

were saying -- then i found him. >> do you remember you found him? >> yes >> where did you find him? >> he was just home. he was at his home i don't want to say he was -- you know, we have not heard very often -- there he is from jack since then he has been quieted dramatically, and, you know, if you shorted chinese tech back then, jim, that was a great move because it was certainly reflective of a new posture from the government in terms of cracking down on tech. then we see all the things that have followed. it seems like they're taking the shackles off a bit lately. we have seen a rebound in these things obviously coupled with the no longer locking down of shanghai, beijing, the opening up of the economy. that's been helpful as well. >> yeah, but david, is it a crackdown on tech or is it a crackdown on rich people does the government feel

threatened by billionaires >> it could be both. they're not mutually exclusive >> yeah. the government doesn't want anyone challenging it. i thought jack ma was a pseudo government i realized when you found him, he wasn't as powerful. >> he was walking a line and it was always interesting to watch and to speak to him and see what he was willing to say. he knew he was because he was outspoken. he was by far the most high-profile businessman in the country for some period of time, the richest man in the country so, jim, yeah, it was always sort of a balance for him. but we don't hear much from him anymore. i think that says it all love to sit down with jack and see what he's been up to >> david, could we call him a capitalist and the government communist? >> i guess >> kind of revelation. >> i guess

>> a lot of american, good fund manager who is thought china would become capitalist. these are people who never read the writings of chairman mao >> jim, one-month performance on the fxi, that's china large-cap etf, 21% in a month. s&p is up 3% >> 200-day moving average. carl, xi wants people to be sucked back in, trying to make things better, the lockdowns less palatable when the stock goes higher. these markets are so ma nip lated, it's ridiculous they decided to let the market go up. we didn't know where they let it go up to the top of the bol bohlinger band i don't know i have source on this. the government is very technically oriented, and i don't mean like semiconductors

i mean like 50-day, macd i have to hand it to them, they are very, very good. >> i don't hear you saying time to start playing nike, yum china. >> andrew has starbucks. it will be interesting but i think it's too early to buy these stocks i think the lockdown, the rolling lockdowns make it more difficult. but we have -- we'll talk about tesla. tesla seems tuch a lot of people going. i talked to some of the companies out here and their supply chain is better but not great. that was the way i described it. supply chain was better but not great. >> we are going to get to tesla, getting a boost this morning, not just on some china sales but this upgrade out of ubs as they go to buy. time to be bold, they say. the operational outlook has never been stronger. look at futures. tesla will be fighting that kind of tape, at least at the open. mebat"hen "squawk on the stree

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as we said, tesla up in the premarket. last month they tripled production at its shanghai plant, sold more than 32,000 vehicles in china. meantime, ubs does upgrade to buy, says the operational outlook is stronger than ever. they talk about record backlog, two new factories, structural competitive edge and supply chain.

they've raised their earnings per share for the next three years by up to 40% >> yeah. you really want to buy this stock after you read this. i think the headline says it all. time to be bold. i think they're making a call that has come down enough. the china news i think is -- it's a verify kags of what we've been hearing but i think this innovative kind of just going away from the path is once again a way to be able to say that ford and gm don't have what it takes that's going to become question once gm has the hummer i do believe that ford f-150 lightning is a challenge but, yeah, i mean, tesla is just doing better than everybody. it is a little aggravating because everybody else is really trying hard, but tesla is just way ahead. david, when i read what -- you know, what the analyst has to say, there is just a thing that china was somehow really

favoring these guys. there's no way they could have such a ramp-up in china without saying we want tesla to win. >> interesting point, jim. i have no sense as to whether that's the case or not but, listen, what is it? 60,000 units lost due to the shanghai lockdown. then they say they expect tesla to reach 1.4 million deliveries this year. what caught my eye is the targets. almost $50 billion in ebit in 2026, still four years out, but $50 billion in earnings before interest and taxes put a multiple on that and you see sort of where you end up on the valuation. obviously, the cash flow model gets them back to a $1,100 price target right now that gives you a sense of -- >> this is urgency carl, this is a piece saying get in almost every single line item is much more positive than most

people think i think it's a gutsy call. if the interest rates weren't going higher, once again, i think this would be a fabulous call you need to see rates lower to be able to make this thing so the stock can be a 50 and not just 20. >> right jim, you mentioned some of the competition. part of the supply chains that tesla has locked up, the charging network will be a learning curve for the legacies. >> i think the others, they are a couple years behind him, but ford does have a lot of -- be able to have what it takes for lightning but not to meet the demand at all. i think demand far exceeds the supply whereas with tesla, every time they sell -- every time they put out a car, it sells. and this piece just tells you that the company is more liquid,

stronger than everybody with a better supply chain. it's an extraordinary piece. it's really well researched. and i think that the fact is that tesla, people are in awe of elon musk out here they are not talking about what's going on with twitter david, they don't care about twitter. they care about the fact that somehow this person, elon musk, has transmitted all the problems they see and is putting out something everybody wants versus a lot of the companies out here. >> it's interesting they don't want to keep talking about twitter at all i wonder if he's gotten pushback from employees at tesla or spacex saying what are you doing? we don't want your time divided in any way we don't want your attention taken away from what we're up to, whether that's figured into his decisionmaking at all. by the way -- >> that's an interesting point twitter is an asset that is really hard to get growth. everything else he does, growth is at his feet >> we can all assume he has had some regrets about his

willingness to pay 54.20 for twitter. there were reports yesterday that twitter said, sure, have at it, we'll give you the unimpeded stream of tweets to comply with your demands for data, but, again, everything i can find out at this point still inld kates they'll wait for the vote, wait for the shareholder vote at twitter at this point, and then when it doesn't close, they'll -- you know, zelenskyy beamed in there too. all he did was talk about elon musk we're not alone. everybody talks about elon musk. kept mentioning elon musk. >> president elon musk then the guy in the white house. it's amazing elon musk, i have -- there are people who say, listen, he could do twilter in 20 minutes he could fix twitter 20 minutes >> we're going to find out there's been a lot of talk about actually twitter seeing the best

growth they've seen in years with new targets, new product offerings, maybe a little more employee attrition as they said yesterday. we'll get to cramer's "mad dash" and target and caterpillar ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq i could've waited to tell my doctor my heart was racing just making spaghetti... but i didn't wait. i could've delayed telling my doctor i was short of breath just reading a book... but i didn't wait. they told their doctors. and found out they had...

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this week a couple days of gains, got knocked down yesterday, legs a little wobbly this morning the s&p has been at about a 100-point range for a couple weeks and we'll be focusing on 4,100 again today. opening bell in 5:30

all right. it is time for a thursday

edition, cross-country, of the "mad dash. you love this guy, ollie i don't know why >> okay. one of the reasons, had you opened the flyer, you would understand why they've had such a terrible quarter yet rbc upgraded, a bunch of analysts saying you have to own it. let's go over what's on this, i don't know if you're a remember, but this week the deals are from hamilton beach, hidden valley ranch, gaming chairs, eureka light-weight vacuums, yankee candles, fry pans, scott's miracle gro and saly brand a lot of these things sound like except for scott's, this is the beginning of i think the target liquidation. i think this is where target -- this is the channel where target has to get rid of its stuff. i don't know but, boy, this was the best ollie's army note that i've got

yet. i wish i were from quaker town, pennsylvania, ollie's because it's going to be humming >> it goes to the point you're making when we heard the target news earlier in the week, maybe some deflation >> because of oil, we have stagflation. it would be deflation. if you look at ollie's, mainstream stuff for sale for your home. it's the stuff that you would expect to be -- target has always had a lot of yankee candle when you start seeing vacuum cleaners for sale, think about it that's those hard home goods you know target can't get rid of, no one can get rid of it, but if you can, go to ollie's because they have good stuff cheap my story here is in amarillo, texas, showing you how much ollie's could could still have in terms of the reach going west >> interesting >> will you go with me to one, david? please >> i'll say but we never do. we always talk about it. >> there's books for fife cents.

water damaged. i got one about the invasion in 1945 with russia, american, berlin 50 cents so it's water damaged. who cares? >> you can't read it >> right your alibaba is down, david. >> my alibaba. >> let's get the opening bell. real estate celebrating rebranding ryan schneider joins us in the next hour. at the nasdaq, heritage pride, new york city's official pride planning organization. jim, speaking of retail, we look for a blowup at the open and today it might be five >> yeah. they didn't have the right merchandise. i think what happened, it was okay, but dollar tree and dollar general were so strong, yet by

comparison five below couldn't cut it i went to my dollar tree on saturday they had an unbelievable deal, two great greeting cards for a dollar but what i saw and what i think we have to realize is that the dollar tree, dollar store, the place for people who are not doing that well right now, that are scrapping, five below is really trinkets. it's not the stuff that you need david, if i took you to my dollar tree, what you would see is everything you need for your home for incredibly low prices that's what people have traded down to. the form factor, that's how they do it. you do not get the large form factor sometimes you have to wait in line far long time but it is hard to find it. >> up 63% this year, dollar tree >> the merchandise is so much better than it was the family dollar is so much better i have to take it.

you can eat off the floor of dollar tree. >> are they treating their employees better there was a dave stating "new yorker" article a year or two ago. >> i ask them how they're doing. when you ask someone point-blank, they say it's great place to work. that was a devastating piece, david. there you go trying to intrude on a great stock >> i hate to do that you know i do, jim >> i wanted zendex to go higher. you killed it. you killed zendex! >> i actually gave people an opportunity to sell zen desk before today's significant decline after the company said it is no longer seek agbaier that's the way i would view it, jim, as opposed to killing it yesterday. we did report yesterday it seemed highly unlikely that they were going to be successful in selling themselves then they got sued later in the

day by jana base on my report, who said you screw this up and this morning we got the press release. let's get into the news if we can because the company has been for sale for some time you can see it's down another 11%. yesterday it was down sharply, and my report came back a bit. that was halted for volatility there. but this morning they say zendesk advisers conducted a comprehensive outreach to 26 potential parties including 10 sponsors, engaged in management meetings, extensive due diligence process, four potential strategic partners, and only a subset of the financial partner, none of the strategics decided to continue and that's despite the fact we extended the process several times. we just couldn't find a buyer. >> zendesk was one of the hottest stocks out there

this is a metaphor for what i find out here. there was a time when booking zendesk was trying to get a supreme court justice to speak now you can book zendesk i've got my team here. >> maybe you want to bring them on and ask them what the plan is >> because they were going to change it to angstdesk >> we should point out as well they have set the annual meeting. it is august 17th. interestingly, a little bit inside, i think the record date now is the 27th of june. so be able to vote at the meeting, you have to actually be a record holder as of the 27th what does that mean? everybody is selling today, all the event guys getting in there, hope against home this sells at a premium. they'll all be out you set the annual meeting for the middle of august when there's not a hedge fund in sight that will know what's going on four directors are still up,

jana trying to seek four new directors including getting rid of carl bass remember my report on him and his nasty emails >> it was fabulous fabulous reporting the whole time >> thank you >> zendesk is metaphorical out here, it's kind of like rescue me, please. my stock keeps going down. my options are under water please buy us. then suddenly people have to google the company to begin with >> another bad day for that stock, on top of the significant decline yesterday. >> interesting, guys some of those former high flyers, jim, are being bought again by cathie wood, bought tesla yesterday but twilio, moderna, new position, unity, and one of her analysts tweeted at zoom, looking for $1,500 a share by 2026. their general thought, jim, is that the number, the percentage of knowledge workers x china is

going to go to 75 that work at least in a hybrid environment. right now that number is about 51, they say >> i like zoom i think it's a good company. i would like it so much more if tay said, look, this stock could go up 20 to% $1,500 price target for zoom, i can tell you that eric is saying how can you do that to us. he is a modest, humble man, and somebody wakes up and discovers his stock is going to $1,500 he wants it to go to $114, he'd be thrilled. hubris, david. hubris >> where are you on this thing now? >> zoom? >> yeah. >> they did deal with a lot of cash >> they tried. >> they failed they need to do a deal they've done some good investing. full disclosure, my son worked there, but i believe they have

to become more than zoom they need to make it a bigger platform, david. maybe cathie wood has a vision, a dream. she wants to look at it as what it might be. but they do -- they've got a jpmorgan m&a banker there. maybe cathy wood is envisioning what they could do >> yeah. we've talked often about how this technology will advance and of course one wonders, your friend, mr. zuckerberg, and what meta will be able to accomplish in terms of allowing people to work in the metaverse. >> my friend. >> you did it to me with alibaba. >> my friend chuck robbins has web ex-and you never know -- i was using webx yesterday and it's exciting where zoom is a little static. at the same time, zoom has the cash to do a deal. cathie wood says things that i think are outray jousz

ag you don't do that to zoom because it's baffling for zoom this is not tesla. this is a company that is searching for its destination. >> jim, you talked to chuck robbins of cisco last night and i think heard some relatively encouraging things about supply chain. let's take a quick listen. >> it is temporary and we're seeing -- you see the news we're starting to teal the fact they've opened up soon and hopefully we see that flowing through. i think that's a temporary issue. you know, there's a few other -- we're still cautious, but there are a few other positive signs we're beginning to see in the supply chain side of things which hopefully will continue to improve. >> is that the most constructive you heard him in a while >> the most constructive of all people i've heard. i think that chuck thinks that things are getting better. he thinks that we're all too gloomy, that we're talking ourselves perhaps into a recession. by far, the most stalwart person

other than the people who were in cybersecurity, i mean, you have the palo alto and he would tell you this is the best of times. he's no dickens. he does believe things are great. chuck was very upbeat and chuck thing v thinks -- the ceo of cisco, my travel trust owns it i felt better about owning it than at any time in the last six months he has a lot of things to say that are good. palo alto's stock should be much higher. >> what changed? chuck was on with us only a few weeks ago on the set it was after their quarter, and remember, we were talkinging ab his concern of port traffic, china opens up, how is it all going to get here in any period of time that makes sen what's changed >> china has opened up a little,

david. >> yeah. >> some people are going back to work what they're making is stuff that chuck needs >> it's just the fact they've opened up in the last few weeks sin we saw him also on with andrew a couple of weeks ago. i'm just trying to understand exactly what sort of changed some of his optimism >> the opening is significant. no one cares the stock is down anyway people hate silicon valley they do. >> what's your big take-away do you have one for us being out there in the last four days? >> you don't want to be a venture capitalist those prices aren't coming back. >> you don't think so. >> no. >> what's the conversation like? what do you mean you don't want to be a venture capitalist >> the conversation is, kwo -- so what's going on, huh. last night the conversation at the cfo dinner was this wine is

good i like the red i mean, to talk about business is almost like you don't do it >> really. >> yeah. >> talk about hiring freezes i got to tell you, david, it's not the same thing out here. they're talking about moving out of silicon valley. they're thinking about saying this is no good. we have all these pampered individuals that are being paid way too much we can go to atlanta and crush it they're sick of the rich kids telling them what to do, david i'm 24 i'm going to make a fortune here i'm going to work when i want to and when i'm 26 i'm going to another place and doing the same thing. that's what people talk about. >> interesting >> yeah. the 24-year-old hubris and the way ta to deal with it is to go to atlanta, carl. i'm moving to atlanta. they don't feel that way in

atlanta. i'm going over -- make about a quarter of what you do out here. >> you need to spread some of that wealth and labor equity around the country one thing, jim, we can talk about how dark is mood is out there. but cigna up 7%. that's not the kind of thing you hear in a depression >> no. david will have to go for his anniversary. jana is a genius huge amount of cash. she's turned this company from a pawnshop with outrageous rates to a really good multifactor jewelry store. and i just think that i'm in awe. i'm in awe of what she's done. she will be on in the 10:30 morning. everyone will like to hear what she said because she has great numbers. it's good to hear someone as

great numbers. expanded the purchase, very good, $500 million, balance sheet is incredible, yet people still question how well she's doing. i have no idea why they would ever do that because she's on fire >> we did mention the target dip hike of 20% on the back of cat's 8% hike yesterday. some try to read target's hike as a sign of confidence, at least in the back end of the year >> it's like what david said about cisco. now they're raising their dividend but it does say that brian pointed out when he said lit go down to 2%, then up to 6%, so why not raise the dividend now it's a pretty hefty dividend if you think there is any possibility of a soft landing you want to buy target most people don't think that they think it will be a hard landing. that has to do with the recession. the airplane analogy

>> shares of walmart, costco, home depot, they're all up today. >> we want a special defensive defend from costco home depot has had a decent spring but you know what, people just want to talk themselves into a recession, carl. i really believe that. >> it's happened before, jim we'll try to keep things as honest as possible, at least what we see here by the way, you can always get in on the cnbc investing club with cramer. sign up at cnbc.com/investingclub or use the qr code on the screen. very busy day. the ecb leaving rates unchanged, ending qe, saying they intend to hike 25 in july. we'll get cpi tomorrow, ppi next wednesday. we're back in a minute

we're the strongest economy and that's allowed us at least to stay on top of and a little bit ahead of what's happening around the world second thing is, look, inflation is the bane of our existence inflation is mostly in food and in gasoline, at the pump >> yeah. >> the president last night on jimmy kimmel talking about inflation, jim we did get some administration officials yesterday saying they do expect tomorrow's cpi print to be elevated >> yeah. i think it will. if you can go on jimmy kimmel, can't you go on mike werth not that mike is a show but he -- i really feel like that the president just does not want to be seen with the people who could change the price at the pump he just doesn't. david, i know. june 22nd, 8:00 p.m., by the

way. i do know there are people who could at these prices be talked into raising the production. still it's a refinery issue, but you raise production, send it out, get refined product from them i just think that talking to saudi arabia and talking to jimmy kimmel doesn't do it i like kimmy kimmel. >> agree exxon has a plan to increase production permanently and dramatically, a lot of the old xpo energy territories, they're drilling wells all the time, jim. it's not as though they aren't taking production up they are >> they need pipelines, right? they need pipelines. they need to be able to -- the president has made the pipeline much harder than it was under president trump. >> right. >> that's the opposite of what we get from the administration i know that jimmy kimmel is a very important place to be able to talk, but i also think the boardroom of pioneer would be a more effective place to speak. >> no doubt.

listen, i think -- i'm always surprised of a reluctance to a certain extent to engage fully with the business community. i don't get it obviously, you can understand that given what we do for a living >> right. >> on the shareholder side, i'll continue to come back and say i don't know if you're if you're darren woods or mike worth, thinking about your stakeholders and --, but 122, they'll say we're at least going to make mo planning it's unlikely to drop 20 bucks i think, carl, it's a game changer at 122 i don't know, maybe i'll call jimmy, see what they ace thinking you know, there's been some

discussion, data track, for example, did a nice piece on 140 on texas would be a doubling, and generally, when you see a doubling in the price of oil, that is a good recession indicator 12 to 18 months out. >> remember when oil went to 140 because there was an errant hedge fund >> yes, i also remember when it went to negative 47. >> we have a war in ukraine that everybody talks about out here, and believes, by the way, that no one is talking about it anywhere else, because a lot of people out here had very substantial business in ukraine. a lot of people had to get out it's a different world >> it is we should also talk about food as well when we're talking energy. >> we should. >> for us, it's going to cost more for other parts of the world, it could be a lot more serious than

that. >> famine is the major source of social upheaval. that's what we need to talk about on jimmy >> some would saw it's a great venue for serious conversation about the costco cover >> yeah. >> i think it was the secretary of state, guys, 200 million people around the world are food insecure we'll be talking about that more when we get closer to harvest time a bit of a whipsaw here in the first half hr.ou dow is back to flat. u all desere something epic! so we're giving every business, our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please!

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let's get to jim and "stop trading. >> i think there's a very good call that's being ignored today. this is a freeport upgrade, saying this is the best stock for stagflation. a lot of people feel it's stagflation there. i just gave you one to play if you believe that negative thesis. >> interesting a winner in a stagflation

environment, soft landing, and they go to neutral jim, you have a big lineup tonight. >> yes, we have uber, if you have a lot of drivers. and adobe is the commerce -- it's a commerce play for the web. if the web is slowing like a lot of people think, holy cow, and gary steele, we know him from other companies, and now he's at splunk let's figure out what happened and why did we get that change we still don't know. >> ellen is done. >> where are we going to go? >> i'll go on an empty theater to promote our documentary.

>> will you come on "mad money"? >> of course >> why because i got you the invite on the "time" 100 >> it was fun. did you get all those pictures >> the "time" 100 people, they were only wish they were at the dinner >> if you're not with zen daya, you may not have gone at all. >> i tried i wish >> you killed it >> he's got an exclusive with the ceo of signet, as he said a moment ago, the parent of kay jeweler and zale's the dow's gone green, don't go around make thinkorswim® even better, we listen. like jack. he wanted a streamlined version he could access anywhere, no download necessary.

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a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq good thursday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with david faber. morgan brennan is on maternity leave. we remain range bound as we've been for a couple weeks, despite

the swirls currents of central banks, and, of course, energy, david, even though oil is down about a half a buck. >> well off the lows though. here are three big movers. tesla shares got upgraded to a buy, the firm saying the recent decline has provided an attractive entry point it's up over 3.5%. we mentioned signet jewelers earlier, better than expected quarterly profit, as well as an upbeat forecast. don't miss it, an exclusive with the ceo later this hour. jim is bringing that to us news today as well, zendesk did down, off its lows this after the company did confirm it is ending its attempts to sell itself. carl, yesterday, during the

faber report, we reported that it was far less likely that that outcome was going to happen. they tried 16 strategics, ten financial sponsors, they ended up with a small group. >> that stock was down yesterday, and our report down again today. they did set an annual meeting, the middle of the summer, august 17th >> david, we'll talk some markets here to start of morning, initial jobless claims since about april 17th. >> clearly the markets, but

indecisive. >> while the market has been much higher. we've obviously been watching oil, so careerly there's a pain threshold there. at some point that fields into a deeper slowdown. that decent flush we got in the markets in late may are, for now, providing a bit of a curb. >> right. >> i won't say surge, what does the relative outperformance lately of small caps and as we discussed last hour china

make -- >> there have been some washed-out areas there are parts of the market that led us lower, maybe have paid their price you know, you look at the arkk complex, that fund is made on a relative basis, a series of higher lows from a deeply, deeply depressed point you never want to extrapolate what's going on there. as the market calms down, as the overall pace just stops whipping all over, it stays in a range, it's more about maybe what the laggards are worth meanwhile, as the momentum is all exclusively in energy now. hearing about a bit of liquidity as well, mike. >> for sure. >> tomorrow we get the cpi number i'm curious how you think people will position for it, and what impact it might have

>> it remains plausible. it's hard for me to see a number tomorrow, though, that will really bring people in a big way off their -- in other words, it will still takemonths. >> i don't think it settles the debate in june and july, maybe september, you know, gets it's one of those things where it's an illiquid market over the last couple weeks, so it feels like some energy is being stored up here for a big move. we'll see if it gets released tomorrow >> meanwhile, as people like to point out, it feels like we're in an era of perpetual earnings. jpmorgan will report the first or second week of july it's really not that far away. at what point does the market get back on preannouncement

watch? >> i think we're kind of there so to me the question is, has the market already, to some degree anticipated this but no more than normal for what tends to happen over the last 20 year on an intraquarter basis it's a long way. and i think the big thing is, for the second half of the year, numbers haven't moved that much. still implicitly this idea that the second half will be strong enough to keep the overall picture intact >> mike, appreciate it thanks for helping us to start the hour >> it's been quite a week for chinese technology names

alibaba was up, this is they quickly faded, desmite some speculation earlier based on guidance from regulators man, the last couple years for you have been vogue till to say the least. where are we in terms of the whipsawing in terms of the chinese government, we hate you, tech, we don't hate you, we don't love you how much further back have they come

with derailings the ipo, in many inst instances i don't think they were intending to destabilize the entire -- give the view that they were at best unpredictable, and at worst, uninvestable first, in terms of rhetoric, starting with q1 and now with some of these actions we'll start to see deals being put out. >> they have been more constructive than the middle of march when things hit lows there, but, you know. >> they're a bit isolated.

and frankly by western standards, they are actually rational. so, you know, a lot of the measures they took are in the antitrust vein are rational by -- and they've got to improve that in order to stabilize these markets. >> so interesting. it's a good point you make on ant. obviously they're way ahead of us in ways in terms of using

that for finance and micr microfinance, do you have any expectation it will finally hit the public markets >> i assume it will, but the question is in what shape and what components. to essentially break apart the statistics of china's financial ecosystem. when it does come to market, and likely hong kong, and just the, you know, the overall importance of this property to the ecosystem could look different >> ben, one thing we've been looking at regardless china industrial policy are signs of splintering, premier li, to what degree is he supportive of these lockdowns -- is that fundamental to understanding trading now >> certainly what's going on

behind the scenes, from the lockdowns to some of these policy measures are not necessarily market driven or health driven and have political undertones, so there is a lot of tea leaves listening required. but certainly i think everyone across the chinese regulatory and government ecosystem recognize that q2 will be a disaster and numbers will come out much lower than expectation, so the second half of the year has to pick up the slack to get the overall averages to work out to get anywhere near the 5.5% growth they targeted therefore, there has to be a lot of action, and from public officials to give confidence to global investors, this is still an investable market. >> why because if the target is not met, is that some existential threat to xi's tenure?

>> i don't think his position is at risk, but this government stakes its -- at times in sacrifice of home court things we enjoy in the west, so therefore it has to grow, people's livelihoods have to improve, people's wallets have to increase in scale all of that i believe is essentially to the legitimacy of this adm >> finally, ben, we're taking a look at the kweb there, down still 53% over the year, if in fact a more positive second half is to be had in china, will these shares move appreciably higher as a result >> if you look at the chinese market relative to the u.s., we're in a different position today from that kind of recovery curve than the u.s we are very much in some ways back where the u.s. was, i would say mid 2020

inflation is much lower in china than in the u.s. interest rates are higher, there hasn't been the same degree of money printing a lot of these issues that have al the market are very much self-imposed they have issues in the short term that i don't see in the u.s. so in the short term you could see jumps like we saw yesterday, in opposition to what we're seeing in the west. >> it just occurred to me, i would assume you need to know the country well, probably have been there, but you can't get in now, can you >> i've been in china throughout the entirety of the lockdown i was there for the last two years, i just left a few days ago, because we needed to hit the road, seeing all our investors, and explain what's going on >> okay. so you've been there the whole time

you were in lockdown >> i'm in beijing. it doesn't have the same degree of lockout we still have a degree of mobility. >> will you be able to go back soon or no >> our expectation is this quarantine policy that's essentially the largest inhibitor to coming back will be maintained through the balance of this years, but at some point we'll certainly bite the bullet and get ourselves into the quarantine and come back. >> ben, we certainly appreciate getting some time with you thank you. as we go to break, a look at the road plant for the rest of the hour inflation, recession jitters, 85% of cfos now forecast a recession next year. plus we'll speak with the parent company to century 21, a lot of other names as well how home buyers should navigate what are rising rates and inflation. it's one of the big earnings

movers we have an exclusive with signet jewelers, down 100, green on the dow, now back down 141 a lot more "squawk on the street" is still ahead

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stocks with stable growth. let's bring in david kosten. great to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> atlanta fed's barely looking for growth you've a bunch of conferences is a -- >> i think the view of a lot of port follow use manager is it's a reasonable probability for 2023, less probable for this year, but the equity market is already trading that i guess the -- relative to defensive stocks, they are already implying a level closer to 50. the recent print at the first of the month was 56, so it suggests the equity market has already embraced the view trading the idea of the slowdown it imminent, so the goal is you

will have a decelerating economy. i think we had a major conference on tuesday afternoon, where we looked at fund managers, chief investment officers, where they talked about the ideas of investment strategies for the year, and thinking of the idea of dividends, which is a strategy we would view as one of the most -- biggest compelling opportunities, the idea that the forward market is pricing, as though this would be dividend cuts in 2023, our forecast would be rising probably around 9% to 10%. i think that's an important distinction. you know, they have some challenging situation near term, but you think about a lot of companies they have a policy of different, the ratio for most companies is around 30%, so there's plenty of cushion, and dividends are sort of one strategy to relatively more defensive strategy, certainly, but that's the idea. >> we said in the intro, focus

on stable growth rather than balance sheet. why is balance sheet not relevant, or is it >> traditionally, if you were heading into recession, stronger balance sheet stocks would generally do better, but the than weaker balance sheet stocks the idea of them eastern -- week more prized in that environment, but that's not the case right now, one of which, a lot are the growthier stocks, and as the interest rate market has repriced the idea of more fed tightenings, growth stocks have done less well so that's a congrewens, overlaps of the stronger police, which is why i think fund managers are thinking of the perceived maybe slower-growing company, but a more stable, secure strategy. >> we've been having a few of our guests whether the relative

strength of small caps is interesting, and whether the performance of china last month is interesting. >>ed small caps do have there's a reason number of companies, actually have a negative ned income in general that would be more, so we d. and thin about what are the areas with out-earning overs. obviously commodity prices is up so much. health care is another and sort of three areas of isn't

that -- i think it's getting to an area where we're looking for demand destruction the lacks of investment in infrastructure for the last de decade, basically. less on the what we call real economy. many companies have shouj

there's labor cost, certainly other raw materials costs energy in particular, that's leading to concern about margins. which is giving right to the tighter fed policy so thinking about it for 2022, we started the year, it traded at 22 times forward earnings, now 17 times at this left, the idea is earnings are really the story for on moving forward. traditionally earnings fall a lot. our view is they will rise, and that's probably 4% energy stocks will basically have huge earnings for the year. that's all part of the returns cash to shareholders is one of

the themes we've been emphasizing. >> and we'll certainly learn more about the input costs once earnings season begins thanks for being here. >> thanks. david? >> as we head to break, watch intel today, this is the chipmaker's pauses all of its hiring, as it's evaluating jobs in that engineering division we'll be right back. you're a one-man stitchwork master. but your staffing plan needs to go up a size. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

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welcome back home builders understandably have underperformed this year, with losses of the spdr etf about doubling the s&p 500, as investors worry about rising rates and the impact on sales. demand yesterday down to a 22-year low, david, and expect more of that as rates continue to climb. >> that's a good reason to speak to our next guest. ryan snyder, ceo of anywhere real estate. this morning the company officially rebranding now under

the ticker hous. good to have you, ryan what was wrong with realogy. >> we've been on a journey, grown our market share, levered technology, paid down about a billion in debt. as we look forward, we want to do more for the consumer directly, both as a company and through our great brands you name to use the anywhere brand to mean consumers >> where are you going to meet where he that's different from now? between the scale that we've got, our title business, mortgage business, along with the real estate businesses, we think we're in an advantaged

position to make it more of a push-button transaction than the way it's done today, and we can do it across our six brands as an anywhere company, and we'll get focused on that over the next few years. >> i noticed in your explanation you're going to be a remote first company, and let your employees live and work anywhere they want. why is that? >> we have benefited from remote work we're recruiting people in geographies that we've never been able to rethem before they are happier, doing great in terms of performing for our customers, agents and franchisees. we think that's where the world is going we are excited to have done that i think your general point is the impact is moderated at the high end, is that right?

>> we are seeing more strength than you you might expect in the -- the floridas, the texas, southern california. so it's a weird environment to have rates rising, but to be supply constrained, which is what's happening in real estate right now. that's how we're seeing it play out. >> lumber is the other thing that people pay attention to will it have an impact with the way in which homes can be constructed on the new end >> it clearly is having an impact just as a country, we're way under-supplied in housing. part of the reasons is the lack of supply out there. we're rooting for as many new homes to come on the market as we can get we're confidence theif there's r new homes, we can sell them. >> congratulations great to have you. >> thank you, carl

thank you, david. again, another range-bound day. carnival, though, at the top of that list as susquehanna initiates with a neutral we're back in two. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

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i'm frank holland. here is your news update this hour president zelenskyy said the battle in a key city could determine the fate of eastern ukraine. the mayor of that city says ukrainian forces still hold an industrial situation, calling the situation difficult but manageable there are 10,000 residents remaining there that cannot be eva evacuated. iran's plans to remove

surveillance cameras, the iaea passed a resolution criticizing iran in southern spain, a massive wildfire is forcing residents to evacuation the country's military is helping firefighters try to go contain that fire. that's the latest, carl. back over to you. >> frank, appreciate that. checking in on the markets, a bit of whipsaw action, but relatively range bound, trying to hold on weekly gains. joining us thor -- this morning is ian shepardson and amy silverman. good to see you both thanks for the time today. ian, business print tomorrow the general sense is it will be hot once again any reason to doubt that.

>> not really. the rent, the airline fares, car price, it's going to be ugly, but maybe a bit less ugly than last time, and over the next few months -- so i think probably we may be past the peak. >> there's been discussion, that we don't get the downside -- >> it's a relatively small component. there's a big dollar element in there. so i'm hoping we'll see some relief there but we've got -- in the short term, we've got really still pressure like airline fares.

as to there's some hope. >> jobless claims today. >> can we explain why the vix has been anchored the last few days. >> a vix of 24, i guess today we consider that soft now >> we're then realizing, and so it's harder to go even higher, but look, i will say the whipsaw is real, and volatility of

volatility is something we could see happen i can tell you the options market is not expecting that but that vol to vol move is something we're watching closely. i know in notes about your views, there's a possibility of a port strike in early july. tell our viewers, what it would look like? >> you know, this is one of those things, you know, when you do derivative strategy, i feel like you spend all your time, even best-case scenarios, you know, we know in early july, there's the potentially for a strike on the ports. i think we think this is unlikely, but if it is going to happen, it's not baked into the market, so something we've been talking with clients about is

the literal tiff port strike put spreads, so a very low chance of happening, but very high payout if it happens. >> there's multiple fires. how do you -- you mentioned the fed, how do you think this feeds into the discussion next week? these things,ed september meeting is all i'm focusing on >> we've got to go some of these slightly smaller core cpi numbers continue, but the wild card i think is how the fed responsibilities, which is still not widely accepted, but mortgage demand has fall are for

five straight months, and i think we'll see some declines in home prices as well. so this change, and i think it's baked in now through the weakness in the mortgage demand. by the time september comes around, i don't think the fed and the markets can ignore it. more 50s is just hammering too lard, that's what i'm focusing on, but next week is done. >> a good piece, even yeah, good to see you both. >> see you after the break, don't miss our exclusive with the ceo of signet jewelers. here as you see, up very strong her this morning, this after an earnings beat. a look at the top gainers on the s&p this morning, led by nxp, maybe some big takeover ceguedp but it's id u nily

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guy are far higher this morning, as jim cramer is back, and. >> thank you so much, david. it is my pleasure, who i have to say, quarter after quarter after quarter you blizzard my thesis is a lot of people have these pant plays. when i read what you have done, people deferred holidays, and now they're going to your stores, that's why sales have been incredibly strong across the board. i'm very proud of our team we've been transforming signet now for the last four years.

we're not a covid story. we've been building the make roe economic story we've been seeing ten different banners across as people are going to weddings, as they're going back to work, a new hybrid environment, they're looking a thinks to accessory ice. , if covid did anything to shopping, we have two thirds of our customers now interactin with us, an there's no jewelry retailer that has the level of digital experience, and we've got done a lot -- >> when i first saw your i don't

think line, i thought people will not order jewelry online. how did you know it would transform online a lot of us didn't think it was going to work. >> right, it was slow. a lot of people -- how does it move in your fingers, it matters. what we did is consumer understanding. we lenders that building a relationship, so getting i think people have to -- but 2.6 organ ink sales growth at the same time you mentioned very plainly, look, you know what don't count us out jewelry holds up a lot better

than we thought. so jewelry tends to become a give of choice now, the environment we're no now, with the war in ukraine, the high levels of inflation, it's a different environment, but we're leaning into our strengths. we have such strong venter -- we can take lower increases, so that creates a. >> well, one of the other strengths you have is a strength in balance sheet you have no hesitation, that that's just maybe one of the best buys that you can have is your stock

exactly right. we have a new authorization we think we're under valued, and q1 as a pressure test has -- which is to be a $9 billion in sales company, and deliver consistent operating margin >> where we know lawsuits, where we know there was detrimentation have we put everything to bet now? i'm particularly proud of what we've done we've been recognize by the

gender equality index. we have women at every level of layer, and we're at ahn all-time high it's that's driving our results. repair is a great business there's pent-up repair that's a great big for signet, isn't it >> we're not resting on our lawyers as become the number one jewelry repair we've hired more jeweler to meet that demand. the industrial around is more around three week. now we have a virtual repair tracker. that's something that gives customers a lot of trust and confidence

>> i think it's a great buy. i bet the stores will have a great fall thank you for coming on "squawk on the street. >> thank you, jim. >> great to see you. carl, back to you. that was great we'll see you tonight. a bull/bear debate on facebook's parent meta, as it officially changes the stock symbol to meta we continue to cover just around 4100 don't go away.

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nbc out with a new cfo

council survey asking the biggest risk to their businesses frank has the numbers for us >> 41% of cfos say inflation is the top risk of their business as you can see behind me, interesting the see less than 10% seeing the rush to war or cyber attack as a key risk this survey taken between may 12th and june 6th. the highest level in 40 years. nbc reported russia was preparing for a long conflict in ukraine. just the day before on may 10th, supply chain issues were easing but a soft landing while raising rates and slowing recession for the fed, he said that would be difficult. in the surveys, cfos reflekts i -- reflecting how challenging that goal would be 9% the fed's gel to control inflation. 45% confidence

36% saying they are not so confident and 9% saying they are not confident at all 14% of cfos forecasted a recession this year. however, a total of 85% of the cfos expected a recession in 2023 either in first half of the year or in the second half of the year none seeing big economic downturn in 2024 or later. one area that's not seeing a slowdown is cyber security spending 68% say they are spending more on protecting their networks and data with about 32% saying their company in the same position when it comes to cyber security this last year, another 14% saying they feel more vulnerable carl, back over to you >> frank, thank you for that as we go to break, watch novavax today down on news the fda may delay a decision to approve the company's covid vacce. eyreevwing changes to the manufacturing process. stocks down about 9% today we'll be right back. stay with us how will your business adapt to change?

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kayla is in los angeles and has a lot more kayla. >> reporter: david, good morning. the long ape waited summit is beginning with a setback they all add global inflation and energy and security looms but president biden is the host country's leader thought to kick off the summit by refocusing the conversation on new investment in the region. >> partnership, help economies grow from the bottom up and the middle out not the top down what's true -- what's true in the united states is true in every country. trickle down economics does not work >> reporter: the crux is a new investment in the interim bank which official say is about $300 million to make small loans to businesses the countries will add about 500,000 health care workers

totaling about $100 million. that will help for future pandemic preparedness. it will be a new nigh brags pack announced tomorrow where more countries will agree to host the region's migrants. later today president biden will address ceos before meeting with canada's prime minister to discuss covid-19 and energy and brazil's president where president biden could press him on a refusal of election results and dealings with russia and china. tonight i will be speaking with the homeland security secretary about that new migrant frame work and whether any immigration reforms can help the united states fill some 12 million open jobs that interview will air on the news back to you. >> thank you looking forward to that

interview as well today. quick check on the marks before we head you toover to "tech check. the last hour and a half we were up on the s&p. clearly in the red tomorrow we'll see you thep. that will do it for us on squawk in the street. tech check starts now. good thursday morning. welcome to tech check. later some gaming news from microsoft that could spell the end of counsel >> we'll start with meta, not facebook what is this company cheryl sandberg built the most profitable business and now