resistant to the other moves with tech stocks, we'll see. enterprise stocks are also interesting. those could be good long term. >> we're up against a hard break. we have to jump. it's bib a heck of a morning appreciate it. >> twitter is even noticing, stock market something, make sure you join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" is next good monday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm ckeept ania >> a lot of moving pieces today. the yield curve inverts, bitcoin breaks support, and we awade the fed decision on thursday our road map begins with inflation fears and a stock sell-off futures point to a sharply lower open >> coke ceo tells jim how

they're handling inflationary pressures and supply chain challenges, and of course, we have a crypto crumble. let's call it that at least. bitcoin, a lot of other cryptoes down dramatically, not to mention some of these exchanges not looking so good either >> no? >> no. >> we'll get to all of it. let's start with the markets and the extension of friday's sell-off there's really nothing working today, jim, whether it's about rates, about china, about ukraine. it's hard to turn anywhere and find a positive headline >> no. there isn't. china obviously once again, the failed policy. ukraine, learned that russia could conceivably be winning, ate least in the east, where ukraine is suffering 200 deaths a day in their army. their army isn't that big versus russia oil down, so if you're trying to make money off oil, that's not going to work. the main focus is bitcoin. this is bitcoin monday

i think everybody realizes, like they did when i was out west, as i said in an important memo that's only for cnbc investing club >> i tried to read it. then it wouldn't let me read it. because i'm not in the club. >> you can't get through the pay wall >> no. so i wanted to see his 15 reasons and things he learned because it was 15, correct >> yeah. >> and - >> you have to pay i'm not going to give you a copy >> thanks. get back to crypto >> so, i asked everybody about it i asked a lot of cfos. we had a cfo council but most importantly, i asked every ceo offline, do you have bitcoin. the word that kept coming back, con. it's a con i said how about nfts? that's, you know, can't conceivably ask me about nfts if i'm telling you crypto is a con. >> you have been asking about how of these exchanges could

offer these incredibly high rates of return. we have one today that has suspended the ability to withdraw >> you're getting some people say 17 for that. >> i still don't fully understand it, other than locking up somehow your relationship with them, which i guess would become - >> bankers >> i don't know, jim >> i don't want to make a joke of it because a lot of the younger people and a lot of people borrowed money. they will be gone today if they're not careful. this is just shocking to people because frankly we don't know how many changes they are. i know when gary gensler was on "mad money," i was telling him i was getting 8% with my ethereum. he said that's basically too good to be true, jim i think what he's really saying is you're about to lose a lot of money. >> 18-month low on bitcoin market cap below a trillion. down 23% in a week microstrategy down 24% >> microstrategy, yeah, $21 is

where they - >> their debt is not looking so good right now >> no? >> $21,000 is where they break, apparently that's the key margin call level. they say they have more bitcoin. this is where, here's what happens typically in these situations the people who really have a lot invested in crypto come in, and they make a stand. and they say, listen, see, this was the bottom david, you know that there are a lot of bitcoin maniacs and they're going to come in today it's going to be braveheart. >> the crypto bros miami real estate, some people are wondering, because you have had that conversation, given all the trends favoring miami. for example, there would be no boom/bust cycle, but there's an enormous amount of wealth created, particularly in that town where there's so much activity you have to wonder what the impact is going to be and the

wealth effect effectively, because people have become millionaires many times over in the last few years >> let's say they were prudent well, they have raised a lot of money and are doing well >> maybe they spent iton other things and that was a great way of diversify >> at a wedding i went to, the miami mayor came up to me and said i wasn't positive enough. >> he's a great mayor for business there i'm not in any way criticizing i'm simply making the point you can't have a significant negative wealth effect from what we're watching here. that's it. >> and not just bitcoin but the exchanges. >> 21% of their assets >> soy many different elements of the ecosystem >> we never found out how much there was, how much they were getting. remember, these guys would always say the same thing. blockchain you know, wow, is the s.e.c.

regulating them? do you know anything about blockchain no, i know about banking i'm sorry. do you know anything about the tower of babel or about when the tabts were delivered always blockchain was the answer, the glib answer they gave you about why you don't have to worry, and we don't want the government in it that's why we love it, because we don't want the government in it well, i don't know, i have some benjamins in my wallet i'm glad the government is in them they take them >> speaking of which, dollar index near a 20-year high, as that has clearly - >> we forgot that negative, right? you know what's amazing is china continues with a policy which says that almost as if we have natural immunity, if you just let everybody not have it. i mean, you have got these situations >> you moved quickly there from the dollar to china. >> it wasn't quickly >> there was a bridge that i

think you forgot to cross. >> it's like the disney parade without mickey >> the fact beijing is sort of, what would you call it, carl moving back towards lockdown in some way >> 50 new cases in beijing 37 new cases in shanghai, so they did a lot of mass testing over the weekend they're going to roll back some school openings. no sign they're fully going into lockdown experation. >> why don't they call pfizer or binext >> you keep saying the same thing over >> not everyone watches every day. you think everyone watches it every day. some people catch it once out of five >> xi hasn't watched at all. not once >> you can tell him i have all my crypto in binex >> they're not doing it. >> they say they temporarily

paused some withdrawals, but the real story was celsius and their withdrawal >> now, let's understand, just closed for new business, 12 billion that were in there, they were getting up to 17% interest. >> you're talking about celsius now. >> i hate to jump around too much but we're jumping >> we're back to crypto. >> there are going to be opportunities today. because we're down the last two straight days. we're headed into a fed meeting of which if jay powell, he locked himself into 50 now, he's taking himself off maybe he does 75 certainly the two-year says he might. i think you maybe buy the two-year >> this continues to take speculation out of the market. and we talked about there being a great deal of it many people may have been on margin you're going to see a negative wealth effect from it.

so keep deflating the tires so to speak the question is how long you can hang on before the damage gets too great and everybody starts yelling and screaming. >> i do think, by the way, that the fed should do more than $95 billion in bonds they should say we're going to do $200 billion in bonds the national association of realtors doesn't want that >> you're talking about the tightening, the reducing the balance sheet. >> because lenar and toll, they started trading at three and four times earnings. if you cut the earnings in half, they're very inexpensive i think that let's just get it over with. let's just get it over with. have mortgage rates gok to 6.5. >> we have a ten-year at 3.26% that was below 3 last week reminding people it has not been a great year to own bonds. if you have been in certain bond

funds, you have had significant losses nowhere to hide. >> two-year is fine. >> whatert asset class could you hide in? not even gold? >> i like gold here. nowhere to hide is wrong because there's -- >> tell me >> the two-year, there's commodities in brazil. >> brazil, listen to me. we need pipe in this country the fact oil is down, we need the gas pipe, the europeans need the gas. >> you could have hid in energy without a doubt and been happy >> it's down today i think you buy energy because we don't have enough energy. this is very much like 1969, '71. you know, david, some people say exxon has more money than god. >> including our president >> this is what the president said on friday take a listen if you missed it >> we're going to make sure that everybody knows exxon's profits. why don't you tell them what

exxon's profits were this quarter? exxon made more money than god this year. exxon started investing, start paying your taxes. >> who had the better year >> i don't know what god's looking like these days. hopefully god wasn't in a lot of crypto >> when does degrom come back? >> soon. >> what does that have to do >> i'm trying to get away about going against the deity. now, david, i know on june 22nd at 8:00 p.m. >> correct >> you're doing a documentary about a religious documentary. god. david, if exxon and chevron were saying behind the scenes we're willing to pump more if there's a meeting of the minds with the president, does this make it more likely they'll pump more or less >> i don't understand the comments i'm sure you don't >> the oil companies told me they're ready to sit down with

the president, but the president is not going to sit down with zeus and mercury >> you make that point, they pay their taxes, and by the way, yes, they're going to generate an enormous amount of cash flow. >> are we going to do a windfall test >> that's been discussed i have no idea not imagine that has the ability to get through congress. >> you cannot -- you cannot, david -- >> they're generating enormous amount of cash flow. the question is how they allocate it, whether they return it to shareholders or whether they put more in the ground to increase production, or whether they commit more to their carbon neutral goals are key questions. questions we obviously address in this documentary. >> the obvious one, if the president is going to criticize exxon, then the oil companies will not put down more pipe because they'll be afraid when they're done there could be a windfall tax, say after the midterm, so windfall taxes are on the table >> i can't speak for -- i don't

know, maybe the republicans also -- i don't know where that would come down. do you have any sense as to whether there's really an ability to actually get a windfall tax bill passed and on the president's desk seems unlikely >> if you're mike worth, carl, the ceo of chevron, and willing to meet with the president and talk about pumping more in return for something, i think you just say, wow y don't know if he'll take my call. >> looking a little late at this point to start talking about that >> mr. president, this is mr. worth from chevron yeah, i paid a lot of money at the pump, and then hang up >> we have calls on tesla and ultra today. more macro desks looking at 3400, 3500, and jim has an exclusive with coke, talking about inflation, supply chain, the new ready to drink jack and coke take look at futures here on a rough monday in store. we'll back in a moment to adapt in the changing world, you could hire a professor of theoretical mathematics.

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coca-cola and liquor company brown foreman announcing plans to debut jack daniels tennessee whiskey and coca-cola ready to drink cocktail the beverage will be available in markets around the world, launching in mexico in late 2022 also known as jack and coke. i spoke with coke chairman but did not drink any. take a listen. >> we're pursuing a consumer

centric strategy and doing some strategic experimentation in the alcohol sector or the low alcohol sector since 2018, and at the end of the day, one of the opportunities is premixed cocktails. there's at the end no better, no more popular bar call than jack and coke and so we got together with them and said look, if we're going to do this, we believe that by putting coca-cola in the jack, we can take what was an existing premix cocktail to a completely new level and create something that really works for consumers and will be great for the coke company. >> we weren't actually able to get the split of who could make the most money, but we also discussed inflation, price increases, and supply chain challenges that really are going to bedevil coca-cola the rest of the year take a look. >> we have taken an approach of as inflationary costs whether they be commodity or wage or logistics come through, we need to pass them on into the marketplace.

elasticities have been low so far. we talked about in the first quarter, it's my expectation that tougher times are ahead, but we have great rounds and great commercial execution, and we think we can pass through the costs and take the pricing that the brands have earned and we very much believe the brands have to earn the price increases, so we will be robust into the future. i think elasticities will come back in, but we'll have a robust business because we will have earned the price increases we ultimately have to put through >> james, when i look at the can, the syrup, the advertising, is there anyone you can push back on, you can tell the can company, we have had price increases, or the liquid, guys, we're done it keeps going up. or can you say to the companies where you ad tize, we're not paying what you told us. is there any power where you can tell the other side, we're done? >> of course, as we're a huge

buyer of many things in the marketplace, whether they be commodities, services, advertising, what we do and where we spend our money matters but our focus is very much on long-term partnerships with people, and hot we're seeing in the marketplace, and one of the reasons we have these inflationary pressures is not just the negotiation, but it's about the structural supply. there hasn't been enough can supply, for example, in the u.s. there haven't been enough truck drivers coming in and learning to drive to supply the logistics in the u.s so we can have a big tough negotiation, but ultimately, we ned to help solve the problem. so we have worked to bring with suppliers, they're investing huge money in the u.s. to bring in new aluminum sheets and canning lines. we worked to invest in helping bring more truck drivers into the authorized marketplace, so we focus very much on what's the strucktual problem here that's

causing these price increases and is there something we can promote and tap into that will create a better structure going forward into the future, because one tough negotiation leads to another tough negotiation. what's needed are structural solutions. >> well, james, i don't know if they're putting up more aluminum sheet, that could be the longer term bull case if they bring supply on, eventually, you come up to a better pice for coca-cola. >> absolutely. it works out in the end, and as long as we back those moves, we have the right marketing and the right innovation and the right commercial execution, that would create value for the coke company. everyone who participates in the ecosystem of the drinks all the way down to the suppliers. >> see, now, listen to his words. what he's saying is that they finally are putting supply up. there was a belief that mostly at one point or another, things

were slowing down, we don't need to pup up supply if you're a canning company, there's only a couple canning comp companies. that would not be the case, but if they finally put up, that's what's supposed to happen. there's been so much demand and so little supply that you might see a situation where coca-cola raised price, raised price, and put a premium price on jack and coke, and then steel prices, can prices come down, and that's nirvana, which is why if you take look at the times coca-cola has come out of these things, they always come out on top. an interesting story >> by the way, morgan stanley reiterates overweight, one of the handful of dow components green for the year >> it is remarkable that yjames figures out exactly what to do you have an 18-year-old market in mexico, you talked about how the hard seltzer has done, the brand, everybody knows jack and coke one of the few things people can go to at a bar, but this is at

home so what happens is that maybe you go to -- oh, you go to uber. they have drizzly, and you order the jack and coke. it's a very good at-home product. jack is jack daniels and coke is actually coca-cola >> thank you thank you. not a drink that i have -- on either one of those, never had either one >> they'll do coke zero. >> you never had a jack and coke jack and diet. >> i don't drink jack or coke. >> how about 7 >> don't do that either. >> do you think culturally, it's as big a deal as espn embracing -- >> that's a great question overseas it's much bigger. gigantic it's something that plays in france and plays in china. plays in japan so it really is, it's a brilliant move because that would become, that form factor, they introduced that form factor on "mad money.

david, this is where you can buy premade drinks kind of like crystal light. >> thank you >> not at all like crystal light. >> crystal light, right. >> wanted to see if you were paying attention >> i'm trying. >> he's trying >> trying to pay attention >> this is a reporting tool, unfortunately, because i have to half listen to you while i try to find things out in this ear, i have to listen to you. i don't even know what you're talking about and i have to try to respond to people >> so rude >> i was out west and this never happened people pampered me i'm back to being just - >> welcome back. >> at least you didn't give me that, yeah, crystal light. >> mezcal, that's what i like. >> mezcaland jack, really bad tasting. >> we'll count down to the opening bell we'll see what happens at the open in seven minutes.

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. a little more than three minutes before we get started with trading at the new york stock exchange we're looking for a sharply lower open, target didn't help a few weeks ago when it reported its earnings although then it's come back and said we're getting a lot of inventory. that's a subject of mad dash >> i'm glad you gave the subtext. i wrote a memo this morning, well, it came out last night, for 15 things i learned out west that's available only to club members but you can subscribe and get it one i left out, i went to a target on mission street, main street in california and watched how many people didn't pay and everything was under lock and key except for the head and shoulders shampoo. soap is under lock and key i stood at the bottom of the escalator and watched person after person not pay then i was part of what i believe was a diversion.

there was someone making a huge amount of trouble in front of me on the line, and that caused virtually a bit of a jail break from people who did not pay. i did feel at some point a little foolish that i paid there was a guy who was waiting in line. he got tired of waiting and walked ow. >> is this more about the state of affairs in san francisco than target one store is not going to move the needle >> you're right. what's really happening is there's much bigger situations where there are fencers. now, there's nothing at target that's really fenced, but you go to the bigger stores and steal things, you fence them online. you go to amazon and see things - >> courtney reagan did a piece on this years ago. >> now there's legislation trying to get passed about this. but it is endemic. i found it quite anarchistic

anarchists they pulled chesa boudin >> they did. they did, but i think you have come away from san francisco wondering about that city's future >> i think that if this is endemic in many cities, particularly in more expensive cities i wonder how the reits are going to do. senator durbin has a bill in that might frustrate the fencing part of it remember, you have people who come in and take cranberry juice, and then you have people who go to home depot, steal things, and then put them up online in what looks like a store. one of the great things about shopify and adobe is you can look like a major hardware store. >> right >> yeah. yeah but the target thing was meant to be the state of american retail when you get rid of the felony if you steal a lot. >> it's an issue we know that and not just with target >> i mean, i think it's more endemic of the drugstores.

i'mpicking on target i shouldn't. they were there. >> everything in cvs is under lock and key it's anoising. >> so many things are under lock and key, when they open things, i was able to grab the grapes. it's a huge issue everywhere let's get the opening bell here and the cnbc real time exchange at the big board it's decking company, celebrating its second listing anniversary. we'll talk to the ceo in a i little more than an hour the east coast bank celebrating its 120th anniversary, and 3805 at the open. that will be a fresh intraday low of the year. >> right, and by the way, jesse cink, he's appeared on the show a number of times. it's a really great barometer for housing so you'll have a terrific guess because this is decking. i think that this is -- people

are trying frantically to calculate what is the right level to not be too scared at for the fed. they're trying to calculate whether it was not done enough, it was not done enough on friday, and david, they're really trying to calculate the impact of the explosion of crypto >> implosion >> implosion >> yeah. >> what do you think what are you hearing >> you tell me how far and wide it goes i just don't know. we know there's been a great deal of speculation in crypto overall. there's a lot of people who are very smart who are firm believers in the future of this. without a doubt. so certainly not passing judgment overall, but there has been a lot of people on margin, as you know, as you pointed out many times on the robinhood platform, for example, in the past there have been many people who have gotten very wealthy over the last five to ten years i talked earlier about miami, which has been the center of a lot of crypto activity

benefitting a great deal from the growth overall of that industry you have to question all those things, what the negative wealth effect will be, what connections overall there are. it's not clear to me there's any systemic concern here whatsoever >> no, i think this is some would argue a necessary cleansing of speculation remember, i said last week, i said in my memo most of the people i talk to in silicon valley call it just thought it was a giant con. i didn't meet anyone who thought that it was worthwhile, and the nfts came under particular scorn. >> i'm surprised they would use that strong of language. it's been many years for us at last to talk to many people involved here, and i have certainly spoken to plenty of very smart, sophisticated people who have been convinced that this is -- >> the wave of the future. >> web 3 is going to live on >> web 3, i heard a lotabout web 3. >> and it's easy for old guys to sit there and say it's not going

to be anything, but i don't know, jim. it's going to be something it doesn't mean just because there's enormous speculation it won't recover from this at some point. i don't want to sound like scaramucci you hear him earlier talking about amazon >> no, but this is important, david. the advertising is endless and it always features people you really want to emulate, and they seem like they have to be smart and stuff. >> fortune does favor the brave. i thought it was the bold. what do i know >> it can be used interchangeably, i googled it. >> somehow bold sounds better. >> the debut of that ad in october against a bitcoin chart. >> i hope they didn't pay damon in crypto. >> damon, he's in crypto >> they paid him in crypto for the ad >> that's a good question. not a lot of places ended up -- like it's over people who love it, i don't want

to need protection from those people, but there are people who are quite vociferous that this was going to be the big replacement, and a lot of people felt it would be a great hedge to inflation it turned out to be a horrendous hedge. and it's in a lot of places. i had silver gate on, a place that has it, obviously, microstrategy has a lot of it. and coinbase, we know, is a poster child that story last week, the rescinding of job offers, that was a bit of a red flag. >> at coin >> eah i haven't seen a lot of that in my time. maybe in 2008. >> man, we had sailor on so many times. >> how is he doing >> an evangelist for crypto. he's very articulate on it microstrategy becomes in a sense a way to invest in crypto. not going too well lately.

>> thank you guys for doing the full, because once again, we sort of see -- >> this is the thing people have to recognize there are levels, obviously, if you came in at certainly levels you're not doing well, but there are people who always tell you they were in, their basis is, and they make up some basis that makes you feel like, wow, how brilliant they are maybe the basis isnot that bad >> it may not be >> there's crypto firepower on the other side dogecoin down. >> a lot of desks over the weekend looking at technical levels mike wilson says more risk of 3400 before a tradeable low is in jonathan krynski, 3400, risk of a june swoon up significantly. david kostin looks at a bunch of cases says the bear case would be 3150 next year. >> that was an incredibly thoughtful piece coston lays out a couple

scenarios, but on a day like today, you can't help but think it's going to be the worst scenario he doesn't necessarily put it that that will happen, but it does define a method where the p.e. is much lower than here, and it's the p. and the e. that's going to go down. >> wilson has been the best, and he stuck with it >> he stuck with it, and he's been right good during these bear market rallies. >> over a year now, saying sell the vaccine, sell peak fed >> what's great is they were, really unlike 20008, particularly in 2000, there are people who got it right and they positioned people. we got a lot of people out jpmorgan did a piece that was -- >> certainly people listen to them >> they didn't cause the problem this time. now, my friend michael, he did a piece on spacs that told you to get the heck out of them, and we'll talk about a particular spac that was really disastrous this weekend and said actually at the top,

sell crypto. there's -- geez, this is an outfit we have to talk about it's a spac, called elms or electric last mile solutions this had the misfortune of being chapter 7. >> bye-bye, liquidation? i didn't follow it >> well, here's what's important. >> tell me what's important. >> they made these -- you're allowed to make projections, okay >> yeah. >> and these guys projected that they would have $3 billion in revenues in 2025 >> right >> in 2022, $1.1 billion the profitability could be extreme, but i don't think - >> it's going to get there you're talking about the projections that came out at the time they announced the transaction. i used to look at them and they're laughable.

>> wait a second, david. this thing is at 21 cents. they could be cash flow positive in q4 2022 >> sounds like that's no longer the case >> 83,000 units in 2025, yes, no, maybe? >> maybe, maybe not. >> okay. so how about ebitda for 200? >> not going to make it. >> has to be in the form of a question >> what will not be a target achieved >> well, $791 million was what they thought they could do this was well flagged. this is not something that i'm necessarily -- >> i'm glad you went back to point it out because at the time in december of 2020, when they announced this deal, you could put out these kinds of incredible projections that talked about unbelievably -- yeah, $791 billion in ebitda by

2025 >> ill-advised but the s.e.c. let it all happen. don't let it be said this wasn't a blessed scenario >> we talked about pockets of speculation in this market spacs and crypto have been two of them. they have both had a lot of air come out of the tires. >> how long ago did you start the jokes about spacs? including -- >> a year and a half ago, two years ago. >> including a graphic that showed you were not promoting spacs. >> we pointed out many, many, many times >> it upset a lot of my friends because many of them started spacs. >> i had a lot of friends with spacs. >> which was a sign, i thought, when everybody you know starts a spac remember a spac and a dream. >> there was a period where i felt spacless was like being without underwear. >> yes >> on that note, there's any number of them i am looking at the iron source.

$2.39. >> you're picking on them. >> a little bit. an incredibly successful private ecwouldy firm, tomo bravo. i looked at the planned price cut. >> what do you think about that? >> i wanted to see the background of the transaction, and they're no different than any other private equity firm. when they see an opportunity to get a price cut, no matter how minuscule the reasons may be, they do it they did it here with that deal. why did they cut it? an aplan estimated it would have to grant more than agreed on in the merger agreement, so they pounced. they pounced even when anaplan's ceo and executives offered to forfeit equity awards in the last cycle to even it out and get back to this $105 million they originally agreed to, you know

what that said no, that would risk damaging employee morale, instead, we just want to pay less. and anaplan decided not to litigate it's waurth read i only bring it up because we wonder why, and frankly, they saw an opportunity, they took it it was for something that was so minor. but they got a minor price cut a 4% price cut, but it makes you wonder about sale point and any other deal, because they're like all the other firms. and if they say otherwise, come on and defend yourself i'm happy to have you. >> i had companies that told me great things about tomo bravo last week, and i thought it meant, please, help me >> they love thum because they come in and play a high multiple and then they take them out. i want to make it clear, they have an incredible record of success. tohoma bravo has been amazing. >> a lot of people this stock is

undervalued. >> they were pushed into it. they did the deal because that activist said you have to do a deal, so they did. >> when are people going to start buying the spacs >> buying spacs? >> a company like 23 and me. >> i'm sure there are values there. >> is it too early to buy 23 and me >> you have to answer that question i don't know >> it came back. >> it never came back. >> it did. we got a lot of money from that. >> did you you wish you had put your money in something else? >> the term was equal to the s&p. >> really? >> yeah, kind of cool. >> okay. >> yeah. anyway david is reluct ntd to talk about things like kind, which has a big buyback. that's next door holdings and the buyback moved the stock that sarah fryer, a lot of people talked about that, sarah fryer

being a really fabulous ceo, but spacced. >> what about the broader market now? and some of the bigger names and the naz sdaq being down 3% down 30% for the year, revisiting the lows. the s&p down 20% we're in a bear market >> what does that tell us? >> from the beginning of the year i don't know where do you get brave and say this has gone too far? where do you get bold. where does matt damon step in here >> exactly when joel embiid steps in i think, carl, historically, not today, but maybe near the end of the day but tomorrow, people go back to bristol myers. they go back to what doesn't have economic sensitivity. what's strange is you would think they don't go back to anything, they should be looking at the two-year and think this is great we do have a fed meeting which makes it more of a wild card, but if the fed does 75, people

think wow, how could we avoid a recession or what does the fed known. that's when you buy bristol myers. >> right now, markets pricing in about a third of a chance of a 75 this week >> just a third? >> 83% next month, july. a lot written over the weekend if they were to go 75, does that deconstruct the forward guidance that they would argue has been their most effective tool this year >> they have to shut up. they were saying 50 basis points i know shut up is a mean thing, but they were saying 50, then they have to double how many bonds they're going to sell. they want to cool the mortgages, cool housing >> you want them to get it over with faster. >> why not you want to talk about this all summer i have a garden i want to do >> it seems to be a key de differentiator this is going to take a while. it takes a while, to fight inflation takes a while. >> he can be - >> to unheap things. >> if you take demand down, then

supply for whatever there is, whether it be housing, whether it be retail, it's going to cause gluts everywhere >> don't you see those gluts in the making >> yes >> b of a called it the end of all shortages. semis, autos, retail inventories are above pre-covid levels housing. uber talked about better driver supply >> yes, daraed said that to me a number of times. all good but you have to get there. jordan river's deep and wide >> you tell me the terminal rate of fed funds and when we're going to get there, because that's the big question. >> they could do up to 300, take the long rates if they sell a lot of bonds, maybe go to $300 million each month, and things start going down >> you don't think there's anything they know about the leverage loan market that would make that more troublesome >> i think it's very small versus 2008. crypto is very small except it's going to hurt a lot of people.

consumer balance sheet is the best it ever did the enterprise balance sheet is great. the oil balance sheet is great so what's not great are venture capitals, but they don't play with leveraged money that's one of the great things about this, the venture capitals that everybody hates because they did all these up rounds now they have to bring to the market, but they didn't borrow money to do it so there's not a lot of leverage. >> good point. that said, there are plenty of investment funds that are deep in the stuff no systemic risk but significant losses questions where they are marking things currently you don't have to necessarily mark them down versus the peer public group, you have to if there's a down round >> a lot of companies are doing well we spoke to james quincey. now, if we get the glut in aluminum cans, think about what happens with him he's raised price, raised price.

just a field day so that's what you have to look for. you have to look for the companies that raised price. campbell's soup last week, what a quarter. and they're going to raise price, and no one is not drinking soup. soup remains a real bargain, david. >> it does >> yeah. soup is not -- versus say fresh? >> everything is a lot more expensive. >> it's true >> everything. >> looking at even a call on kroger right now, jim, from wells. it's defensive, but the stock could struggle to work if m margens see pressure it's one of the only names that are green today. >> on june 16th they're going to report they have done well so far, but that's an easy call. that call will be forgotten if the stock goes up and be a hero. >> we remember the last time we were in a kroghen market and one day we no longer were. remember we were doing our shows from home back then >> yes, i think the supermarket is the price point we know that tyson talks about

it they don't have people to slur the herd there is pressure in every aisle. every single aisle >> really quick, jim, on friday, we had the ubs upgrade of tesla. today it's rbc they went to outperform. they shave the target to $1100 from $1175, but even evercore today say we still expect them to deliver a million cars. >> i don't think people are realistic. i did a lot of checking this weekend about what chips are available, and no, the vast majority of the chips that are needed are still not accounted for. the only ones that are available are the ones that are equivalent of the glut in pcs that's not what the car companies want, so they're going to really strain david, you talked about the amazon splilt split and how it t create value, but people liked it >> created momentum for the stock. >> now it's down a lot >> it's reversed >> yeah. it's king midas reversed

>> a king midas reversal >> everything you touch turned to aluminum. >> it's a song never mind >> oh, man listen f it comes to a song and jow stump him, you really are talking about something. >> i thought it was interesting that i stumped him hey carrie ann, what's your name >> are you with him? >> no. >> this is generational. this is like from the '40s >> we'll talk about it >> glen miller >> '50s. >> green eyed senator from massachusetts. >> we have lost 3800, guys, fresh intraday lows. let's get to bob pisani. >> this you won't see very often. 31 to 1 declining to advancing stocks you're going to go long many years without seeing that kind of imbalance there take a look at the sectors and we have not only whammies on inflation concerns on china issues as well. energy stocks are getting hit

today. semis are getting hit. nvidia, 160. that's a new low, i believe, for nvidia 52-week low for nvidia consumer discretionary, all the travel stocks are weak consumer staples a little better, but not as bad at this point. most of the major indices are at 52-week lows including the s&p 500, and interestingly, the equal weight s&p 500, the rsp, also 52-week low nasdaq composite, dow jones transports, also 52-week lows. commodity stocks getting hit not just on inflation issues but issues arising over in china we saw additional lockdowns in beijing, so some of the oil names are down freeport has been down it was 43or 44, now it's 37. we're down 15% in the bigger copper producer in the world in the last four days the bottom line is it's looking like a long summer

beijing over the weekend, russia/ukraine, no change in that all the three major issues that is the fed will make a policy mistake, and something is going to happen. tha they'll cause a recession if you look at the earnings, look how strange down about 20% year to date. the multiple compression is 20%. yet earnings are still expected to be up 10% they went up a little bit last

week this is this very weird anomaly we keep talking about in the last several weeks the earnings are still rising. they're expected to be up 10% this year, almost 10%, 9.8% in 2023 essentially, we haven't gone anywhere at all. we still have very high expectations if the market comes to believe a recession is inevtitable, those ear earning estimates are going to go back down, down in 2022 as you may have another 10% decline in the market. so, if you put another 10% decline in the market. then you're down 30% this is about average. other people have been noting the fact she said this, this morning, s&p 500 tends to lose one-third of its value 10% earnings go away you get a 30% decline. that's not even on top of additional multiple compression

we may see back now >> all right, bob. thanks as we go to break, treasuries see how they're faring big week for central bank. bank of japan, bank of england taiwan, brazil a bunch of rate decisions. ten-year, 327. one stock green, 3m, dow's down 620.

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when you become an expedia member, you can instantly start saving on your travels. so you can go and see all those lemons, for less. jim, on humana, 45,000 free orders that's the spac that's gone. i'm happy to report that i got what is left in my interior now, they let me out. i'm excited about that not necessarily going to reveal which one. unless you ask, which one i took the money on nod bad, huh >> congratulations >> great

that's it. >> finance now >> got it. >> that's the only combination -- >> it's the combination buy now finance. >> the reminder. this is so great this is the initial money i put in before the big run. what a -- >> that's success. well done. >> then i got the money back it's kind of like the u.s. treasury, david. >> yes, it was >> but for the fact that it wasn't we'll see you tonight. >> i got my money back >> 6:00 p.m. eastern time. we're going to stay on top of the selloff as we're hovering above 3800, 15-month low don't go away.

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recessionary flags wave. we're 30 minutes into the trading session. coinbase getting crushed with crypto price that stock down 80% for the year. tesla shares under pressure, despite get outperformed at rbc, saying tesla can fend off competitors. and the target on tesla from 1100 to from 1175. it's down 5.3% we're also watching 0 docusign, after the company was misearning and slashed guidance that down 25% since the start of the month. carl >> as we mentioned, stocks selling up today as the markets await a so bad it's a good moment mike santoli with that. >> carl, we're in that mode, down 20% from the high essentially entered lows from may 20th right now and maybe not

that much confidence that they're going to hold the 3800 so bad it's good that's what you look for super washed out, oversold-type conditions i don't think we're quite there. i think you want to look for fewer stocks actually afraiding above whatever average you want. you want a much more intense flush lower. it's been a very orderly pullback i think that's one of the issues ceo, consumer and investment sentiment all bleak. over the 12-month period that's usually good because you revert back to something like normal. and it tends to be a sign that a lot of challenges are priced in. but that's not a timely indicator. usually you have to see the reverse higher for it to be relevant valuations in the sign of fair no longer a headwind the question is when you've had a bear market move like this, does it stop at bear does it have to get cheap? do you have to ride earnings estimates lowers? i think that's why

i think at least for more than a bounce those are the big questions. i think the big thing, sara, too, is have we finally got in fed's ear to overshoot what the fed's going to do. we thought we were there a couple times this year, hasn't been the case. >> so there's this raging debate whether the fed is going to do more, as soon as wednesday and barclays and jeffries are expecting it even talk maybe they should do 100. if you've been paying attention to the fed they've not going to do that right? how carefully has fed chair powell been telegraphing every move >> yeah. and an so conscious at the idea of transparency. they do not want to shock. maybe they should. >> right >> maybe they should to get imflation under control or their credibility under control. roger ferguson, the former vice-chair was on the slow on "closing bell" friday. he said expect a basis point, but signal that they're open at the next one

>> i think that's fair he, powell very much cherishes the fact that their guidance has worked so well to this point i think wednesday what will be interesting the degree to which he points to that, the housing market and getting the 6% and the higher bond market basically being closed into issue aance after the last few months with lags. i'm not sure it matters in real world terms 75 this week or 75 six weeks later at the july meeting. i think that's a fair way of thinking about it. i'm more interested that everyone is talking themselves into more, more. 4% of the terminal rate, 3% a while ago. >> five weeks of influence, though and then close for year to date what does that mean to term? >> it is the one thing that remained out of panic mode which is retail flow i think people hate bonds more than they fear stocks. maybe that has to change

>> keep an eye on that, along with the vix close to 33 and active equity, and barclays global research. guys appreciate the time this morning i guess i wonder where you are in terms of positioning and sentiment and how important 3800 is, not just for today, but for the medium term? >> well, m s, markets don't feeo right now. as you all have been talking about not just today but for many, many weeks it feels like there's something missing. there's really that rip the band aid off moment where you see strong selloff on speculative aspects. and we're starting to see that today. that can bleed in and affect other asset classes as well. but when you get that, when you see that, there's real opportunity. and if we don't get that, more importantly, we are seeing some opportunities today. so, we're starting to pick away.

also, looking at portfolios trading to make sure we have the right securities to own going forward because the regime has changed. and it's a different world out there now. >> michael, do you think we're over our skis in fed expectations? >> well, i think what's important here, despite the decline in equities that we've seen, despite the decline in global growth, weakness in the housing market, the weakness in consumer sentiment, it has not been enough to slowing inflation. that's what the fed's focus is right now. there's external tradeoff for the fed in growth and inflation. but the focus we think needs to be on the inflation front. inflation surprises to the upside if they don't come with a shock at all, the markets expect if they don't stay behind 9 curve and inflation continues to run to the high side >> so, are you saying if they do go 75 basis point which is would be a surprise, michael,

especially since fed chair powell ruled it out and you guys at barclays are expecting it that would be like a biden news event that would lead the market thinking that inflation is going to come down because it's even more bold? >> well, sara, less of a surprise than on friday. the market is now pricing in a 75-basis point move at one of the upcoming three meetings. so it's more of a timing issue at this point. but again, the market's priced for inflation. cpi headline inflation to peak at 9.3% and not until august so the market is still pricing in very robust inflation, only to put down below 8% by the end of this year and that's why we think the fed needs to come with more. and maybe surprise the market a bit. but agency i already said, the market's done a lot of heavy lifting since that cpi report came out friday morning. >> i just don't think this is the fed that's in the business of surprising. maybe they'll surprise >> i certainly don't think they want to.

but given the inflation readings and the uptick in the universe of michigan consumer sentiment indicator on long-term inflation expectation which is has now reached an uncomfortable level from herthey are perspective, we think they need to do something. >> and we're talking about tightening compared to what we're used to and a weakening economy. and also we're focused on doing the rigorous work to companies that you believe can handle the rest nothing seems to be working like on a day like today. how do you find the companies for that kind of environment >> you're right. nothing can continue to work as we have the multiple compression rate as michael said market down 20% earning investment up 8. multiple compression about 6% and the s&p more than that in some other areas of the market so there are companies with good

fundamentals earnings expectations are going to move lower. but lower for many companies, not as much for other companies. and so, now, with the time to take out the microscope and put away the telescope and start really looking for quality company. quality is the best hedge against inflation and against volatility and that's what we're focused on, finding those companies across all sectors across the market caps we do see more opportunity, right now in small cap, too. because of the smelloff, because of their ability to move more quickly, against -- rather than, you know, large companies which take a little bit longer they also have asset-light models so we're looking at that space but really across the market there are opportunities. so, we have -- you may be looking at times to start putting money to work. and also swapping opportunities. so looking at where you want to

be positioned for the next two, three years. >> michael, finally, we're going to get a lot of corporate commentary out of some conferences on consumers and bfoa, credit in great shape. sees mortgage long growth keeping pace the team has made good against volatility what do we make of these banks that seem to have bipolarity in that commentary regarding positions? >> i think what we're hearing when we listen to some of these reports many retailers, et cetera, are saying they might need to be -- that inflation impression that they were seeing because of high inventory growth may need to start discounting prices as we look into late summer so that's not happening now. consumer is holding up quite

well, k s, though, in part of h savings level. the consumer we think can last pretty well. >> great point and michael, appreciate it, ann, thank you for helping us start the hour out on this important day. the supreme court is in the final weeks of its term and the justices now have 28 remaining cases to be decided by the first week of july we got one opinion a few moments ago. it's not the case we're focused on which is dobbs v. jackson the dispute concerning the mississippi law that bans abortion after 15 weeks. the state is asking the justices to wipe away a nearly 50-year precedent and take the giant step in overturning roe v. wade which would change the landscape of women's preproductive headlights we'll be close to monitoring every decision day until the end of the day and bring you special coverage protesters already there

after the break we'll talk about the big crash that's happening in crypto. bitcoin is now trading below $25,000. as $200 billion gets wiped out of the crypto market just over the weekend. plus, we'll staying on top of the selloff in stock. looking at a decline of 3% in the s&p. more than that in the nas dam, down 3.46% a lot more "squawk on the street." don't go anywhere. so you tap ibo your data. and start crunching a year's worth of transactions against thousands of compliance controls with the help of ai. now you're making smarter decisions faster. operating costs are lower. and everyone from your auditors to your bankers feels like a million bucks. let's create smarter ways of putting your data to work. ibm. let's create

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all right. bitcoin is down 15%, got it right there. lowest level since december 2020, as the cryptocurrency now below 24,000 also, a lot of exchanges having serious questions and kate rooney, that's what i'll go to you on, not just the price action here but, really, the broader implications of some these exchanges. what's going to happen >> yeah, that's right, david absolutely, no there's serious cracks starting to show in crypto over the weekend. boir bitcoin, inflation analysts that i talked to see that and fed policy seen as a high risk asset over the weekend, $200 billion off the market cap and some industry-specific headlines also shaking investor confidence. one of the biggest crypto,

celsius freezing customers with draws and transfers. the ceo is vocal on twitter. responding calling misinformation confirming that was indeed the fact last night. and the firm has $11.8 billion in ghdeposits roughly 2 million customers as of mid-may canada's second largest pension fund was one of the big equity investors. both at celsius. customers are retail investors attracted by a 18% yield celsius was offering for crypto. there wasn't a whole lot of transparency we do know that they loaned that money tout to hedge funds on the back end and celsiue are often the small cryptocurrencies getting hit harder it than bitcoin otherwise, sources tell me the

fallout could be messy elsewhere, one of the largest exchange, saying it would be fixed within 30 minutes then goes on to say, it's likely to take a lot longer. all of that due to asset prices and coinbase down double digits. sara, back to you -- david. >> i'm not sure what a stuck transaction is kate, we've been talking about retail investors they make no sense as you point out, not a lot of transparency otherwise offering collateral as you pointed out. what is the business model here in paying the huge numbers? is it just attracting ghostsof e things? >> so the yield is what femur

foc f what they're focused on. we saw luna and terra fall apart for the same reason. it wasn't sustainable. all of this is predicated. on crypto prices collapse it's likely one. there's so much risk attached. the criticism here there wasn't enough transparency on how much risk your average trader was taking on. if you're getting 18% yield for something. you've got to think that comes with a ton of risk that's why hedge funds are willing to pay even higher yields they pay celsius and other crypto lenders, pretty high yield and separating that with the retail customer while the retail customer might not actually know what's going on with their crypto on the back end. the yields are to focus on, the

higher the yield, the bigger of the risk >> kate rooney, thank you. 4200 on bitcoin right now. joining us the vice president of crypto assets and blockchain research how many more dominos tos do we expect to fall, john >> good question there's protocol with lending and markers operating the space. so it just seems like it's beginning. what i will say, decentralized, a lot of though emissions are overcollateralized and there shouldn't have underfunding situationsthat have happened with centralized lende lenders. and with protocol that will continue >> what about the bigger public

companies like a coinbase? how much risk is there for these companies, given the extreme market conditions which is something celsius is >> yeah, coinbase, primarily is an exchange business it's not really the issues that you're seeing in other parts of the markets. on the exchange side, frankly, since it's very solid, it's a different business model, than celsius and other lenders who are offering high yields perhaps in positive platforms. you start to question where does that yield really come from? one of the things they didn't engage in business it looks different the real risk to coinbase is where is retail investment sentiment. not only is crypto concern and broader macro concerns that is going to start weighing on retail. that could lead to lower volume.

that, i think is a primary risk of coinbase with training. willing to fall further. >> do we know how much leverage retail has been using in this area and how much of a concern that should be? >> it's difficult to say so, usually, you get 100 times leverage regulators brought that down some a lotauot of platforms, 20 time. that's still a lot of leverage and with the positive assets in a number of different platforms earn additional yield. we're starting to see a lot. what users can do, they can deposit one asset for a yield. stake another asset for yield. derivative for that. and stake that for that. we're seeing concerns. but once again from defi, most

of the positions you can take are overcollateralized >> understood. kate mentioned binance, the stuck transaction. do you have any idea what that means? or if it's a concern >> it's difficult, i think, anything in this market right now can be certainly read as a concern. you could have situations where a -- you're having difficulty with transactions coming into certain wallets. so there could be issues related there. but the longer it stretches it is >> john do we have cupdates on percentage of owners under water since the purchase >> that's interesting you can track that with applications out there. i will say at this point, you're

starting to look at likely a decent amount. just look at the crypto asset prices if you got in before october of 2021 there might be some additionals you're still up on bitcoin has actually held up pretty well. but you look at a lot of defi, those are down 80% over the last year so a lot of the different areas of assets even know bitcoin has done recently well in some of the smaller markets and inherently more risk, those are down i don't want to say a bear market, but six to nine months or so. >> john, i'm looking at your coverage list i feel like you need to do updating. coinbase with $173 with a buy. you have a buy at all of the crypto stocks that i'm lacking at on your list right now. wondering what happened there? did you underestimate what would

happen to bitcoin with rising interest rates? >> i think over 12 months, longer term. coinbase is still one of the leaders in the crypto space. and some of the private companies and the states, still decent valuation you look at primary competitive coinbase, that model is still solid. if you look at coinbase relative to some of those, if you think the space is going to grow over 12 months or so then it's still an attractive stock. we've seen now, crypto goes through cycles there's been three-plus cycles if you're building in a bear market we think that can be the case. certainly in near-term risk, we've seen interest rates with a lot of tech stocks declining on the back of that for the longer term we can state that. >> but you need bitcoin prices

to stabilize, right, john? from $50,000 to 25,000 this last november >> some of them do -- if you're looking at the businesses model, exchanges, crypto prices extending volatility.volatility. the problem is after that, volume starts to pick up again and back and that usually follows crypto prices. we do to the extent that crypto prices weren't and to that question, we know crypto prices start bottoming out and fall out from there yeah, calling some of that in to look at some of the actual crypto asset prices themselves while there are longer term ricks. >> john todaro, thanks for joining us today >> thanks for having me. as we go to break.

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financials are down like everything else, more or less today. the xlf coming off the worst week of june 2020. leslie picker has more on the overall sector good morning, leslie >> good morning, david tra that's right, gravity hitting financials the concern with the feds response is increasing likely to cause a recession. for large banks, recession can deteriorate credit quality, halt acquisitions the sector was the worst performing sector last week. every large declined 10% or

more doubling the loss on the s&p while actually among the better performing sectors today those same banks are once again in the red. outperforming the s&p so far today. jpmorgan's jamie dimon said a few weeks ago at a conference, to quote, brace yourself for what he sees as an economic hurricane caused by the fed. and the war in ukraine he said his firm is getting more conservative with its own balance sheet as a result of those fears. but it's not just bigs asset managers in credit, too, blackstone, alternative carlisle, all lower this morning. lower public markets can actually drive down the private holdings and the marks of those private holdings and volatility tends to increase the price of equity, as well as, of course, the cost of debt is rising asset managers, invest tow, t-rowe leading to the downside

th this morning, thanks to an analyst downgrade of those names. sara >> leslie picker, thank you. we're going to talk energy, gas prices $5. crude oil giving back gains today. energy stocks are getting clobbered. that stock is the worst performer, down 6% we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire.

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♪ welcome back i'm kristina partsinevelos here's nor cnbc update a group of 20 senators including ten republicans agreed on the bipartisan gun legislation to combat gun violence although the measures are not as comprehensive as those passed in the house. they still include red flag laws and enhanced background checks on gun buyers.

skid sizes of covid vaccine ahead of the fda meeting experts believe the shots are ready for 18 million babies and toddlers kids under 5 are the only group not yet eligible for covid vaccines and the tony awards return to radio city music hall." a strange loop" was named best musical. "lehman project" best play back to you, sara. >> thank you taking a look at stock, extending the selloff. the dow is down more than 700 points right now, the s&p down more than 3% it's heavy dramatic selling and it is pretty broad energy is the worst performing sector, of course, still, gains, consumers everything down, down 1.5% health care still down 2%. technology also bearing the

brunt of the selling again big cap tech stocks lower. and nasdaq down 3.85%. bob pass san nir with more on what is moving bob. >> none of the big three are working. inflation, china, ukraine, none going in our direction, at least not the direction the bulls want to go. sara mentioned the sector, double whammy, concerns about demand, construction and china and beijing weighing on energy semi ducters down. nvidia at a 52-peek low. essentially consumer discretionary. all the travel stocks are weak consumer staples not as bad. i want to give you a sense how broad the declines are growth versus value. big cap versus small cap s&p growth down 3% s&p value down 3.5%. small cap value down 3%. you get the idea

a takedown of the market derisking and reducing the exposure to the market i want to emphasize what's going on with the energy the subsectors the weakest go to the demand destruction issue most of the big emp companies down, devin, marathon oil. here you look at the big name, halliburton, schlumberger, most of the refiners not down quite so much. associat so, david, this goes to the concerns overall demand destruction on top of comphien creating a difficult situation for the energy stock david. >> bob, thank you. perfect place to start with the next guest as well the energy market being a key. we'll thing the head of security of global commodity research

francisco, let me go to you with the question that bob was raising about demand destruction. how much are you seeing, how much do you anticipate in terms if the price continues to even stay at this level or even rise from here? >> well, the way we think about the destruction in energy markets is we look at every million barrels a day or so, global demand or supply. leads to a 20 to 25 million in price us if you look at the past six months, we don't have the supply to grow the demand, we were based at 100 million precovid. 91, 91.6 last year we don't have the supply, the 3.5 million barrels a day to get back there essentially the prices are just higher to slow down the rate of growth, 2 million barrels s a d.

that's where we are today, are 1.5 barrels in demand with the price smallest >> what about the supply side? what are your expectations when it comes to potentially increased supplies or the hope for them, perhaps, in the second half of this year, 2023? >> right so supply is challenging it's challenging because investors have been telling energy companies to save cash. and rather than waste it remember, we we've had three big bear markets in 2016, 2018 and 2020 so, certainly, investors are very cautious. and i think the real issue is we're missing increasingly larger amounts of russian oil from the market. and i think what that's going to do to prices, second half of the year, quite a bit of support i think it depends how aggressive that the european governments, the u.s. government gets on russian sanctions here but we correspond end up having a bigger gap to fill

so that's where we are right now. we are a huge, huge supply shark called russia ahead of us. which hasn't fully played out yet. it's just kind of getting worse as we move into the second half of the year. that in itself provides for a fair amount of support due to prices >> so, given all the supply constraints, francisco, with the macro head wind, what is directionally the next move, higher or lower? >> i think oil companies it's going to be higher from here i've been saying for a while this is a buy to the market in commodities and sell to the market in equities and the reason is simple we've -- we're seeing a reweighting of just the custom money. the risk of re-weight is going up sand i think also the very front inch of the duration spectrum,

commodities, they're very tight. and that's leading to rising cap cash flows for companies and rising to structures in the commodity market we'll see more investment. i think the question is how much and why when uth fo unfortunately, it take time to build up commodity investment. it takes a year, two years to see the results of higher prices only the supply side and thing where is we have the gap to bridge here at the moment >> one thing that's up today, fra francisco is the u.s. dollar, up sharply 0.75%. that happens during periods of selloff, that happens during periods of higherest rates >> right >> how extreme does it have to get before it makes an impact on commodity prices if at all, because usually those two move in opposite directions >> you're uniting. we're going a strong lower and commodity prices

the peak of the market 2008 when oil was $147 a barrel. and 105 today. and in japan, they've told us that he's going to make the full adjustment in japan by the currency because he's hold on to his yield curve control strategy so, clearly, i think the weakest of the u.s. -- sorry, with the strength of the u.s. dollar and weakness of emerging market currencies and developing market currencies will bite into demand i just don't think we'll see a full-blown recession globally. pockets of recession here and there triggered by high energy prices in place where is you have the most leverage and most negative economic momentum. i think that's what you'll see, whether or not full-blown crisis in my view again, the u.s. economy, despite all the challenges, doesn't have the same -- doesn't face the

same issue that the rest of the world does the u.s. economy is still in pretty good shape. strong and frankly, it doesn't depend on the rest of the world for its energy so, i think that in itself could extend the cycle quite a bit, even though you have $5 per gallon at the pump in america. the rest of the manager prices in the u.s. aren't that high for the rest of the world, it's a very different story you have a strong dollar and high prices of energy. >> yep all right. well, we'll stop on the good news here for us, so to speak. francisco, thank you for your time appreciate it. >> thank you quick reminder, by the way, tune in, got an upcoming documentary on exxonmobil and dealing with the issues, of course, not just supply and production, but the energy transition as well exxonmobil at the crossroads, june 22nd, 8:00 p.m. as we go to break, check out the biggest laggards on the dow. one point, green, that is coke

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welcome back inflation, rising rates and supply chain challenges hitting the housing market by the home builders all well underperforming the s&p 500 this year existing home sales have fallen for the past three months as we've seen mortgage rates skyrocket. what is the impact on homeowners looking for spend on innovations and repairs. let's bring in the company ceo, a bell ringer, welcome, jesse. you went public what, june 2020? >> two years ago >> and the stock market was booming. since then, it's been sort of a collapse everything tied to housing what is happening to fundamental

demands like the products you offer like flooring and alternative wood >> just to set things up, we've been drawing at 18% for the last ten years. and we use recycled materials to replace products on the outside of houses as you mentioned decking. what we saw coming into the pandemic was about 16% trailing 12 growth. since then, we've obviously seen elevated levels. as we look at demand now, we don't see really strong demand and one of the key drivers for us is really people's home equitier the comfort they have in the value of their homes. so, we continue to see, really, really strong demand at -- in terms of back logs and what we're seeing on the street with our contractors >> still tied to home sales? or refurbishing? >> yeah, in general, 90% of our residential business is tied to repair and remodel and historically, there's some some loose correlation between

how that acts and in remodeling. but we've seen that separate as home values over the last few years have continued to elevate. and in our particular case there's a real strong focus on the outside of homes that's been their prepandemic, it's accelerated during the pandemic in our case, we're also replacing wood which is the vast majority of our market so we're also seeing a material conversion so we've seen really, really strong growth rates. >> so, given that, are you surprised your stock's been cut morning half last year >> i've been in the job six years. we were private for four years we focused on value creation over the last four years investors have to work through what they need to work through i think our focus is really on long-term opportunity. we're guided to double-it digit growth, by the timbertech decking. and the margin, 400 basis points. >> you guys used what, 500

million pounds of recycled waste? >> we do we do. 56% of our materials are recycled right now we've got a target of recycle by the middle of -- >> where does that come from, by the way? >> we tend to source low-value recycle materials. things that don't go into recycle teams. plastic bags one of the our biggest source is p pvc. we're building that to take a back-post construction, we're the largest integrated pvc recyclable in. >> we're talking 300, isn't that a risk that lumber gets as an alternative? >> for us, we tend to play in a higher market. we've got a terrific value proposition. i think the way to think of lumber in general.

the more lumber comes in, the better the benefit in general to repair and remodel lumber is used in our project. it's usual in general, across housing. so, we view it as a positive sign as it continues to support the affordability. >> in other words, a of a larger renovation including lumber? >> exactly right our products are 25% of cost of an overall bill. think of outdoor flooring. of course, it's an opportunity to replace it, but we see the benefit of lumber coming down and it's a real positive sign as we look at the repair market in general. >> what did you think home prices stop rising crazy to see eve in the face of mortgage rates shooting up? >> starts for us as we look at market, the demographics i joined in 2016 obvious we would have a wave of new homeowners we continue to see really strong demand

and we have confidence in the opportunity we have and feel really, really good moving forward. >> thank you. >> absolutely. great to be on. >> good to have you here at the stock exchange. getting an update out of the supreme court. get to eamon javers. >> the court did not make a ruling on the case, dobbs versus women's health could strike down abortion rights in place in the united states since the court decided roe versus wade back in 1973 remember, a draft opinion by justice alito leaked to politico in early may that opinion upheld a mississippi law that limited abortion after 15 weeks. it's not at all clear that draft reflects where the supreme court will ultimately land on this issue. so spenc so the suspense continues. the court did hand down decisions on several other cases today. including a case on the limits of court authority to force private commercial tribunals to

produce testimony or documents a case sorting through double jeopardy implications of overlap between indian and federal courts two cases on procedures for bond hearings, on immigration cases and a case on civil procedure. the next date the supreme court is expected to release decisions will be wednesday. but the court doesn't give any indication which cases will be released on any given day. we simply don't know when that roe versus wade decision will come if it does come back to you. >> appreciate that eamon javers, an important decision. nearing 4% decline on the s&p. nasdaq down more dom chu has a sector report. >> doesn't represent session lows, by the way a handful of stocks in positive territory in the s&p 500 overall with some so-called defensive areas of the market, least economically sensitive ones relative outperformers you see behind me. consumer staples better performer including businesses that hold up during challenging

economic conditions like those staples. within that particular group you've got food and beverage giants like coca-cola, jf smuckers, hormel maybe slightly lower today marginally personal care product makers, kimberly-clark, colgate, outperformers. keep an eye on consumers staple products back to you at the stock exchange. >> see you in a bit. dominic chu. coming up on "techcheck" a lot more on the sell-off in crypto as bitcoin is down 17%. 18-month low and check out big cap names under obvious pressure one. worst days to start a week of the year back in a moment.

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- let's get into the numbers. - why would a company do that? especially with hr and payroll software. with paycom, employees enter and manage their own hr data in a single, easy-to-use software. visit paycom.com and schedule a demo today. look at the automakers gm, fords, tesla under pressure. everything under pressure amid the market sell-off worsening at this pour. phil lebeau has more and what could be moving the sector. >> killing it now, really nothing going in favor of oughtmakers. $5 a gallon gas not good in terms of demand out there for suvs and pick-up trucks.

hurting the big three. look at ford, gm, stellantis and toyota, don't have a large ev presence weighing on these guys. don't have evs to say come buy one of these in terms of electric vehicle markets, look at tesla shares. down with the rest of the market, though upgraded going to overweight saying near-term, pricing power to have stronger than expected margins recording q2 results and look at these. ev start-ups, call them. under pressure in part because everybody is looking at the market and saying, how quickly will they be able to come out with the vehicles that could take advantage of people saying, yes. i want and electric vehicle. in the case of lucid and rivian, ramping up production but still very low relative to the demand out there, and at this time a lot of people saying, when will we see somebody other than tesla take advantage of the fact that the market is prime for people

to say, i want an ev especially a low are-priced ev. >> that's, phil, my question rivian and certainly lucid, high price points aren't they? >> absolutely. yep. a limited market up there, david. look, selling what they're making, but, a., volume is low and, b., that market is, it's a limited market it's a nice market nothing wrong with it. lucrative, but it's a small market what will really take off when it comes to electric vehicles, david. you get people into a vehicle that can be sold for $40,000, $45,000,s $35,000 in mass numbers, then you're going to have people really do the conversion going from internal combustion to evs. >> yeah. >> phil lebeau thank you. by the way, don't miss a big hour later today on "closing bell" watching the sell-off heading into the close kicks off at 3:00 p.m. eastern time see you there. interesting levels

bear market for s&p 20 percent often highs. 33% off for nasdaq dollar strongest level since april 2022 and bitcoin now 18-month low trying to figure how it all factors together. same time, if this is the market saying we're adding at odds of recession, treasury yields going higher, because a feeling rates are going to move higher especially after a shocking inflation report friday. >> terminal red on fund funds, how quick did we get there answer potentially in terms when we see a reduction in this volatility i don't know -- you heard -- we had a guest saying going to do 75 even though powell's committed to 50. right? >> barclays says 75 next week. so does jefferies. odds rising 75 happens the next few meeting. maybe lay out the groundwork wednesday for next week. either way, watching that ten-year yield also flattening of the-year-old curve. two-year yield shooting up

sharply as well. implications for growth. invert again, people will be -- already talking recession possibilities, but people will be ramping that up a challenging time for the fed and clearly for investors. another painful day to start the week. >> certainly is. pain with 4.22% being decline on the nasdaq that does it for us. "techcheck" starts now good monday morning. welcome to "techcheck. i'm carl quintanilla, and following with bear market territory. market plunges to a low on the year who is best positioned in mega caps breaking down angles of volatility what stocks from chips to software to krcrist crypto on ao avoid pain kick off with a massive sell-off seeing in today's trade. meta down 4.5. amazon down