>> i'm not too fixated on 40 on the xix. i'm not talking about bottoms either i'm talking about reflex bounces. >> appreciate it all the major indexes falling. the dow down near ly 900 points. the s&p closing in a bear market.

wit down down 19%. ether down 25% it lost a quart of its value in one day. the start to have rate on a 30-year mortgage the doubled good evening, everybody. this is fast money we begin with the massive market sell off the s&p 500 plunging nearly 4% it's down 22% off its all time high that puts index in its first bear market since thepandemic lw

the dow dropping it's first time it's done that ever the nasdaq down more than 33% from the record. let's look at what is driving it it's the bond market. all this is markets and investors prep for this week's big fed meeting where chances of a more aggressive central bank are rising by the day. were you watching the stock market more or the bond market and rates more >> bond market without question i heard pete talk last week about this it's all predicated on the bond market and people get tire of listening to me say this

i'll say it and hopefully for the final time, the fact that the bond market is as volatile as it is here in the united states, largest economy on the planet is comical. the federal reserve stable prices the bond market has been anything but stable for the last 18 months and specifically for the last couple of weeks it is almost comical it's a joke. i'll say this, the only panic i've seen over the last couple months has been to the upside. these huge days on the up side i thought today, at least, late, that last leg lower felt like the little panic to me in my world it's sort of an encouraging sign >> i don't want to get too wonky to start the show but there's a lot of stuff going on in the bond market. there seems to be some weird stuff that's happening in the credit markets that's got to be hitting.

i don't think people expected this type of move. you talk about dynamic especially what's going on in the mortgage market and the fed was buying mbs the impact here is part of where i think the fed needs to exist i just, the comical part about this is guy used that term is really about where monetary policy was i know it's easy to say that in hiend hi hindsight. the reality is that we all have this view, inflation is not only transtoirp but that in is the kind of thing that paul had to squash in the 80s and may have to move a lot more aggressively. that's what the market doing that's what the bond market did.

>> we talk abboout bonds, stock and currency we got to go back to when micro soft had the warning they are warning about strength of the dollar and how that will inherit their profit margins this is something a lot of u.s. nationals will be faced with and helps make the case why we think earning estimates as a couple of weeks were still expected to be up 10% are likely to be up maybe low to mid single digits to put a little frame work on this, he's been calling for 3750 in the s&p 500 i want to be really clear about this he's not going to do it himself. you put 5% and it's little above

that my point is, he was thinking 5% earnings growth year over year for this year. that gives you about $220. you can do that math that gets you to 37.50 that was his number. that's why i think, you got to put some frame works around some of this stuff you're thinking about. ta are sort of the bigger market there's all this wonky stuff that's happening with repo rates. let me ask the question that doesn't go into the weed of the bond market. that probably is the case. >> this is what would defend the thing. look at the velocity of this

move we have watched what's going on with the two year and the ten year it's got all the way up to 33. when you see that kind of move, that tells you a lot. it's the velocity of these moves that has people so confused and that's why we're seeing palms out as frequently as we are. in other words, people are just saying i don't get it poi'm selling. that's what he with have seen. that's why is size of trades has become so big is velocity is causing this whole thing >> that's the reason that we're bringing this stuff up at the top of the show because we want

to explain to our audience, many new to the markets, just casual observer to understand test not just one thing, it's complex series of vents that can happen and things you don't expect to happen can >> will the fed go three quarters of one percent on wednesday or will that make them look like they are panicking >> i'm not quite certain at this point, do they have credibility problem, absolutely. did they do it to themselves absolutely did they paint themselves in the corner when they said 75 wasn't on the table absolutely will they move 75? they better.

the real concern we have voiced on this show for months that been in the form of credit we pointed out that credit has not been a problem yet keep a close eye on the hy8 which is officially rolled over. this doesn't move at all when it does move, it typically is the precursor of something sort of nefarious, not nef nefarious. something ill in the stock market what's what we're seeing now that hyg has come off precipitously. if that stabilizes, it's probably good thing. >> the hyg for people familiar with it is major etf that is compromised of a couple hundred of different, mostly lower high yield bonds outside of the pandemic dip in 2020.

>> you can look this up, option adjusted high yield spreads and we're back up near 5%. we're back up through where those areas were around even the lows of the pandemic when we were in 2018 and we were talking about growth dynamics and talking about a fed moving too quickly even though in hiend hiends sight, that's a case all we did is talk about credit. i think it's mart to bring it up tonight. right now it's about what we're willing to pay for stocks. i would go back to the biggest companies in world that haven't really warned on demand. i get back to an apple apple was an $80 stock pre-pandemic amazon is back to prepandemic levels it almost seems like that's the

exercise you have to go to the biggest company in the world trading at 134 bucks or something like that. the dynamic is there's a lot still, i think to equal that >> you said the other night when i was here on the desk the other night, you said that apple needed to go to 125 it's headed there. >> at this point i don't think that's a question. the question is we haven't from the companies that the business is any different other than fx and supply chain even some china stuff, we have to hear more than that >> we will i guess the point is we got very used to a very accommodative market since the financial crisis that fed was in a very different position yeah there were rate hiking cycles we know what they did in 2018 and they ended qe in '13 and '14 but generally the fed had this mechanism where they can speak to equity investers and people bought the dip what's different this time is a, they're not doing that and the

other thing is with all these risk assets kind of going out of whack and maybe not playing by the same correlations that some of us have become accustomed to over the last 25 years, it's not going to be bottom this time when you're thinking about where to buy bapple, you don't have to buy it the day it goes do tim's 125. you can buy a little of it if you've been in the stock market, we have had protracted bear markets you can say large part offense the equity market have been in a protracted market but we have been saying on this desk for all of there year until the nasdaq and s&p joins the party, it's not over my target, down 30% in the s&p 500. that will bring you back to 230eb 20 pre-pandemic high and down 40% in nasdaq 100 which is back towards the february 2020 high those are where things start to look really interesting. >> 32.54 is, that's your 38%

retracement. that's a level people are looking at >> the 161st worst day for the s&p 500. next guest exacerbated by 1980s type rate hikes. tony dwyer is a chief market strategist the big question for our audience, maybe the only question right now is was today the big flush. kind of the big copitulation according to jones trading they have the aspect of wash out trade. there are some there we're down closing higher. investor fear chsurging the pets point. not take out its february high

in other words, some signs of that big getting there, some not yet. >> third consecutive day where 85% of the volume on the nyse was to the down side that happened since 2009 that happened on the initial low since 2015 you had a vicious rally. you retested low you went back up to all time high and created at the end of the year also in 2020 after the turn from pandemic i think it was june of 2020. you again had kind of vicious

counter trend rally after that you retested the low i think the discussion really surrounds most frequent question is, typically i've been bullish over the years but there's money availability problem that we talked about for the last few times i've been on money availability is what defines the botbottom. when you put all this great academic studies and come up with great formulas and saying, you have to have money to buy stuff to do stuff and to i vnve in stuff it's largely closed down since the beginning of the year. >> yeah, to that point let's talk about the fed because i know that it's kind of the score. we get obsessed bit with what they're going to do with rate. the federal reserve is a lot more than just interest rates. it's about buy bonds it's about selling bonds it's about providing liquidity it's about the comments that they make. i know we get caught up in headline number. is there anything outside of a

rate hike which we know we'll get that the fed can say or do that would change things? the market had turned because they signalled the end that's opposite. the real issue is, tim or dan mentioned going back, it's really important get the gdp in the era was a generational low we're? a generational high. you'll take a levered commecono

and shut it down that's not good. we have taken limited money availability, bloated inventories because of supply chain constraint, cratered ceo and consumer confidence into a lower demand environment in a levered system. when you add up, i found like this is what we talked about, i think at the end of april when i was on because it's all about money availability >> you talked about -- >> kind of signify the market to be honest with you that's where we seem to be >> have you seen zoom stock. a lot of people are downgrading off the premium plan >> we don't want to lose you too soon

i want to ask you about some of the positive things for market all we done is talk in negative. positioning is awful if you look at the professional community, positioning is very, very conservative. there's a lot of exposure been taken offer the table. you have corporate buyback at a record pace. these are factors that say the market is priced in. we priced in probably 90% recession at this point. >> let's put the numbers to it the data that i have is when core inflation is above 4% above 4% market trade add 13 times earnings when core pce is between 3 and 4% at 16 times ultimately come down to the e side i've been below the street all

year i love the game that we're in where we raise targets and estimates as it's going up and do the reverse when it's coming down been at 225 since last year. i don't see any reason to really change it. the streak of 2.29 still has the come down. somebody better tell the university of michigan, consumer sentiment survey which has never been in its history or the ceo confidence survey coming from the conference board a recession seems increasingly likely and the number still have yet to reflect that. >> i think it's a good point these are all incredibly important points that you have been making. tony dwyer and maybe get out of the way of this moving e ing tr that's a market for now. >> sorry to interrupt it's

really important that a versus b bottom you had three days in row of 85% downside >> well side we never know until we look back at history thank you very much. pete, can you help square that i think what tony and everybody is making is an important point for our audience i was down your neck of the woods this weekend flights are packed airports packed. hotels packed. restaurants packed yet we're talking about economy slowing down we're talking about consumers going out. what you see with your own eyes and what these numbers are saying, they do not link up at all. >> are these people going on their one opportunity to travel. go do florida. are think going to do that again? probably not people are making the trip

those are sacrifices that take money away from other parts. it looks really great when we see has busy as they are there are other elements that go into it. they can't spend over here because they already spent over there. >> i'll just mention this. tau tony made a great point. the march meeting was well telegraphed. it was going to be first raise in long time the stock market sold off from its highs in january it was volatile down about 13% at tend of the month, it was also the end of the quarter. might not be too different than what we can see now. >> i don't press lows like this. that's no way to make any good money. if you're making a define risk using puts or put spreads or something. you get the opposite move, you get creamed. the same thing going for shorting stocks.

it's not a great price >> that's an porn point. we got to go to break but very quickly. what you're saying is don't get super defensive or eager because we could have bear market rally if you're overly short, it's going to rip your face off in the other direction. >> if this thing will take times to bottom out, don't trim things on days like today are there any safe havens now or do you stay out it have the way? we'll have a strategy session coming up. a little good news for one stock. look at that oracle popping 11% after hours their earnings, obviously the market like them not everything is negative we'll get details of the quarter coming up next and throughout june we're separatiing pride month. >> the most important thing that i want people to know about the lgbtq community is we are everywhere we are ceos, cfos, actors, drrks

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christina listening in to that call and bringing us some of the headlines. the market likes it. >> likes it even more so now that the call is under way q4 revenue is largely driven by cloud apps there's a lot of news on the call right now first you have currency head winds. we're 5% considerably higher than the 2 to 3% we had last quarter. if the exchange rates continue or stay flat, currency should have a 3 to 4% negative impact on total fiscal 2023 revenue

also want to point out oracle completed acquisition of electronic medical provider. they added shy of 16 billion dollar with debt but they anticipate to retain their investment grade credit rating their focus will be about reducing the debt level while maintaining share repurchases. that's the medical company to increase between 17 and 19%. once the news came out on the call, you can see the stock climb even higher. >> thank you very much this goes to our point that tim made and others made earlier,

the numbers are pretty good. revenue all look good with stronger dollar. some of those things we're hearing from companies just not sinking with the overall markets. wo we'll see what happens with customer demand. you can make still despite this move a compelling case which will probably have on it 11% or so eps growth. that's not a bad thing with that valuation, with the company that seemingly in the right businesses right now i still think it's a stock you can own. >> the cloud apps and some strategic hard ware and 70% of the revenue stream are renewable or recurring

they should be rewarded for that many this environment. yesterday's earnings are not necessarily tomorrow's outlook >> right now the stock up 11%. investors hoping that oracle does see the future a bit. we are just getting started here here is what's coming up next. have we reached a bottom here? our bit coin bawler says not so fast later, housing gets hammered with mortgage rates surging and home sales slowing, are these stocks on sale here? we'll bring you a realty check ahead. yoreatin"ft neu' wchg asmoy. we're back right after this. ♪ [♪ ♪ ♪

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look at crypto, they got crushed. bitcoin p down double digits. at one point ether was down 25%. what still has to happen for crypto to be considered to hit some kind of a bottom? crypto has done this before. this is not the first rodeo. >> no, absolutely. i've been saying it for years. crypto is the riskiest thing you can do with your money it's the most volatile asset out

there. you need to size your positions appropriately. that being said, what do we need for a bottom here. we need this leverage to be washed out of the system what's happened in crypto over the last year or so is you have a lot of leverage built up, asseted pledged against other assets not too dissimilar to what happened to wall street during the 2008 crisis and you have a d daisy chain of collateral that needs to be unwound. we're getting close to that. i don't think we're there yet but we're getting closer to that >> what about these firms. this is 20708 stuff in the crypto world, let's be clear

about that >> yeah. these are not banks. this is not secured loans. there's no insurance on these things. bit coin solves a lot of thing it doesn't solve human greed and the idea of high risk or high return those immutable laws of finance continue to exist with bitcoin >> the height and the fear may be greater than other asset claz we have seen go through this >> perhaps

in that sense, will it be more volatile, likely, sure >> that's exactly where i was going. we were on zone there together 368 was the high when you look at the balance sheet, that looks pretty good. when you look at the free cash gl flow, that looks good.

that's the name i'm looking at watching when we see a turn in the crypto world, i think that's one of names first. >> is it coinbase or bitcoin that is -- what's the leading indicator. >> i'd flip it >> i think you'd have follow bitcoin. >> you can do a will the of things with bitcoin but you can't flip it. it's digital wallet. coming up, more red flags from tesla we'll give you the trade ahead the market in tail spin. where can you seek a little safety your protection play book right after this break stick around

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welcome back to fast money things we have talked about a lot on this program.

hyg, lgd big etfs selling off joining us now, these very widely watched and very important junk bond etfs >> actually we're taking a look at lqd which is the investment grade etf. being the high yield or junk bond are trip d or looking at the lowest traunches there that was the result of a big trade in the october 95/85 put spread there was an institutional trader participating to put things into perspective

if they get down to the lower strike, that's a decline of 20% from today's closing price and this is already down better than 20% from highs that we saw last august >> all right thank you very much. for more options action be sure to tune in to the full show friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time housing horror story, maybe, maybe not. rates skyrocket as home sales start to slip. we'll tell you what elon told employees that may have already hit that stock as well we're back right after this. n't. it's your future. so you don't lose sight of the big picture, even when you're focused on what's happening right now. and thinkorswim® is right there with you. to help you become a smarter investor. with an innovative trading platform full of customizable tools. dedicated trade desk pros and a passionate trader community sharing strategies right on the platform. because we take trading as seriously as you do.

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no parabens, dyes, or fragrances. gold bond. champion your skin. welcome back we got a news alert on federal reserve. steve is joining us on fast line with more. steve. >> thanks very much. i want the say my reporting at this point is that the a 75 basis point rate hike a nnnouncd the second day is very likely. we have this possibility i think things have changed for the federal reserve. the cpi coming in hotter than expected university of michigan inflation

expectation, new york fed and i know that powell said this committee back in may was not actively considering it but he also said they were looking at the economy and i think the economy changed that my reporting i'd be dialing at a 75 if i were betting man and not a 50 >> would that quickly take away from future meetings would this be fulling forward or a layering on getting more aggr aggressive >> i think that's a great question i think that what we're learning is that six week s a very long time between meetings and that things can change what powell was looking for when he said 50 was on the table we're going to do 50s. he was looking for the pce to flatten out. i would say and i think i said this at is very beginning of this process, we're not in a

period of forward guidance here. we're in a period of meeting by meeting and the fed is looking at things in the way they are develop and evolving i think there's been likely a pretty market change in sentiment away from 50 towards 75 to answer your question, i think it could mean they do more rather than less it's going to be meeting my meeting until we get a flattening in that inflation numbers and consumer expectations i think the fed is aggressive. starting to price in the will market be shocked.

>> the best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the next best time is today. the last payroll number concerns them they are signaling they need higher unemployment. >> it feems like the fed was accelerating they got the foot on the gas pedal and all after a sudden now they want to slam on the brakes and it's not going to work >> to the point, i think that we're starting to see the signs that unemployment will become an issue. it will start ticking up a bit here i guess if they can push it all along a little bit and then start to signal like tony just mentioned, if the market

understands where they're going in the next three to six months they might be able to start signaling beyond that. the stock market may take a pause. >> fed knows where it's going? >> of course they know >> somehow the market going to know if the fed doesn't. we were talk about that in march. once it became apparent, they were going to do 25 and then 50 and the market could rally 10% the market was much higher then. it's the way this stuff works. yus just sell and let them figure it out. >> i think it really is about being data depen dent. the most recent data telling us something and a lot about where we are now

i don't think that crushes market it might be embraced it might be something interesting to watch time will tell when we look at numbers and we continue to go and say about meeting to meeting, i think we really are in that world i don't think fed is saying, four meetings out we'll probably do this. they're not going that they are giving us as much guidance but he always leans back oen this is data depen dent >> i feel like we're acting 10%, not 3.3. that's really important. it's really the thing very important.

they ran into them >> i'm not taking the bait >> i've given you bait it's red meat. no >> i'm not -- i won't do it. >> these unelected officials put on the biggest prop trade in the history of mankind it's easy to put on a big trade. it's hard to get out of one. now they are fdi iouinngt t. >> he took a little bit. red meat >> all right short break. we're back we'll talk about rate and ho housing, next.

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welcome back the rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage surge in some cases above 6% huge move. the average rate jumped 33 basis

points just today to 6.13% that's according to mortgage news daily note from the coo who said it was very hard to calculate today in his lender survey some lenders want to keep the five in there. we started this year at around 3.25 the monthly payment went from 1400 to $1945. just six months. that's along the 20% down. it's no wonder the home building etf ticker symbol is just getting hammered this includes big builder name as well as the home improvement companies like home depot, lowes and sherwin williams mortgage application volume is half of what it was a year ago

names like rocket, home depot and united wholesale mortgage are getting crushed. >> it's pretty inkrecredible we talk about velocity and all these other things this is what's affected right away when we talk about the two year or ten year, we see these moves that's affecting things in a monstrous way. it's those names it slows things down do a screeching halt. that's what we're seeing now in one month things have changed from being red hot to being ice cold blue and it's just amazing. i don't see that turning around any time soon.

17 times forward at 250 on home depot. you're back to pre-pandemic. if you can't buy a house, you're going to spend money on the one you're in. people are not destitute they have jobs at some point home depot is absurdly interesting >> he says 91% of mortgages are under 5% hard to move next, the final trade. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it!

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final trade time let's go around the horn pete, kick it off. >> those investment grade corporate bonds etf that mike was talk about, e like those puts as well when they buy 135,000, i'm going to follow along. >> okay. guy. >> kroger into earnings. inflation works for kr >> tim >> didn't get to energy tonight. talking about this one for a week i think the energy sub i si dis and dynamics around gas will keep them there. >> elon musk said the economy.

>> all right thank you. i'll be back one more night. thanks for watching. have a great night my mission is simple, t make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money. just trying to save you some money. my job is not just to teach but to educate and entertain to call me or tweet me @jimcramer. what comes after