way. >> yeah. >> you have another scheduled -- >> another scheduled appearance here next week >> got your wardrobe mapped out? >> i'm going to wear a tie as a sign of respect. >> excellent good having you. >> great to be here. >> like it when we'ren a two-shot together, but i have to deal with that anyway. because you're too good looking. make sure to join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" is next >> good tuesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl with jim and david. trying to stabilize after monday's 4% bear market drop got some support from oracle's quarter and core ppi, the lowest annual gain of the year. oil is near $123 our road map begins with wall street's woes. investors closely monitoring headwinds, recession risk, and watching the tea leaves from the fed. >> plus, shares of oracle.

they're surging ahead of the open seeing strong demand for cloud software and keeping an eye on the continued plunge in bitcoin. cryptocurrency hitting a low below $21,000 overnight. now 68% off its highs for the year >> let's begin with the markets after yesterday's brutal sell-off ppi is not the most important print in the world, but 83 is a lot better than 96 in march. >> these are just offer. it keeps the heat on the fed to do something i think that, look, i'm going to do a piece tonight about the fed. we blame them for everything certainly, they're blamable for some things, but i spoke to my friend dave tepper last night. he said listen, remind me, jim he taught me a lot that i know he said jim, i have to remind you once again, this is not yet the time to make money this is time to not lose money i like that. listen, of course, i listen to my other teacher, cooperman, and he's pretty negative tepper is just basically saying

look, there's no reason to be a hero i come in, and lee obviously is pretty negative. i come back and say listen, we're incredibly oversold. historically, this is a pretty good time to buy the dip buyers seem to be completely blown out david recognizes that. but he kind of sees the world in the chaotic moment where you can just kind of riff on anything not being great. i think david, the bitcoin fiasco, these people come on and talk about how great it is, a store hold of value. and they always mention blockchain i'm tired of that. blockchain >> blockchain, the underlying technology is not going anywhere >> the technology is fine. it's the direction the direction. >> what do you think the impact of the losses in crypto are going to be? because there are many retail investors who own crypto, many >> they're being blown out, just like in 2000 and like good-bye. like robinhood, good-bye

we tried so hard to have it not be good-bye. we hit the spacs every day, carl we talked about how you can't be levered. we talk about how you can't be in the joke stocks a lot of people did not listen younger people, the amount of looks like the amount of money going down like in the robinhoods, bye. >> this blog post from brian armstrong over at coin is pretty interesting. we appear to be going into recession, which could lead to an extended crypto winter. as hard as we try to get this right, it's clear we overhired, and they're going to let go of 18% of the team. >> once they rescinded the offers you knew they were in trouble. who would ever leave their company again to go to a place where they rescinded the offers? this is another one, david everyone also says they think these people are geniuses. >> which people? >> the coinbase people >> brian armstrong >> okay. >> is this genius?

is this genius you call it genius >> do i call what, a stock price down 80% genius or i'm sure he's a very capable, smart guy. i don't really know him well i think i met him once >> a bad inning? >> well, one bad inning can make you lose the game. >> not making the playoffs this year i'm saying we always -- like tom farley, i have great respect for this, great respect for that you know what they say when they're off tv man, he's choking. that's what we have to do. we have to tell the truth. we have to thell the truth. when you fire 18% of people, rescind your offer, david, that is suboptimal. and ill advised. >> okay. i mean, i'm trying to think through this he may be responding to current business conditions to try to actually make sure he still has a business by laying people off. it may not be ill-advised. >> i'm just saying there's a lot of people guided in these

quarters like the dogecoin, since "saturday night live" and they thought they could trade them and make a lot of money and maybe even lever >> a lot of speculative excess in this set. >> 8% on that. >> we all wondered about the business models that were based on paying these incredibly high deposit rates and what that's all about. >> the government chose to look the other way, carl. >> it doesn't mean that digital currencies are not going to live on as a significant factor in our economy. >> they could bounce, too. >> we had an incredible amount of excess and speculation in the late '90s. we sat there every single day, mark, joe, and i talking about the absurdity of it all. didn't stop until it finally did. >> when it stopped - >> there were many business models that never should have had a chance at all, and they folded, but there were great businesses that came out of it, and it's not like the internet wasn't a real thing. it was the biggest thing

amazon came out during that period there were others. >> there were others there we are >> facebook came after that. >> there were others >> come on, there were plenty of companies that are still around. >> i'm just saying last night i went home and i said, i hope after i sold the last bit of my bitcoin, that the money will come back to me. that they'll wire the money to me now, see, if i have money with jpmorgan, i'm not as frightful about them wiring the money to me but they offer me no money, no interest i was getting interest galore, but i just want the money back now. >> you pointed it out all the time, but you still left your money there. >> a little piece to keep track of it. >> fine, so you're not going to see that money again >> david, if i don't see that money again, you're going to hear the firm's name that didn't send me the money. and that, talk about sup optimal. i don't think -- if they don't send me the money, that could be a clarion call

>> yeah, we're rooting for you, jim. >> thank you >> as for things that might provide some support to bitcoin, or help it explode higher, mike noev agrats talked about the tie between the cryptocurrency and the fed. >> bitcoin will lead the markets back out of this fed tightening. the moment the fed flinches, the moment powell pauses because the economy is starting to roll over, you're going to see bitcoin explode north. >> that's interesting. is it a function of rates or others argue it's a function of money growth, which we don't expect to explode higher >> this is part of what people are mad about jay powell jay powell created a bubble. a lot of bubbles this one he created, and no one did anything about it. wasn't like he came on tv and said look, i think people are borrowing too much he never said anything and gary gensler came on "mad money," the chairman of the s.e.c., and said you shouldn't be earning those prices.

>> he came on and said a lot of things but the s.e.c. takes a long time to do anything we're still waiting. >> i'm still waiting for the money. >> is this all we're going to hear about now, the money? carl, it's going to be fun when we find out it's $37 >> we have a special on exxon, june 27th. they made more money than god. did you know that? i never equated god with money, but the president did. >> $23 billion last year apple made a lot more each quarter than he did. >> what did god bat last year? >> i don't know. didn't hit as many homers as pete alonzo. >> was god long crypto how did the president evoke god? you don't -- >> he was in the moment being casual >> in the moment, okay let's leave that out >> you're very critical. >> i am critical >> fractious >> and unruly. >> energy is interesting now that we know the president is

going to saudi arabia in july. >> he can speak to them. can't speak to exxon, but the sheiks, dynamite that journalist was murdered there. >> that's why the president called the country a pariah. at the same time, opec says they seem considerable risk for oil demand growth to revert to pre-pandemic levels. is this going to result in output hikes or not? >> i think as long as that war goes on, ukraine/russia, we'll have famine and higher oil prices both are real bad. the famine is going to be quite worse, but it's in countries we may not see because they provided a lot of food to africa but the russians get away with it i don't know how the chinese don't turn around, india but those are the countries that have to turn on russia i think in the meantime, the western nations are funding the war. >> russian oil output is 5% higher this month than it was

last month >> 40% >> with europe not buying nearly as much, because china and india are. they filled the gap and more, and at these kind of prices it's fueling their ability to continue this war. >> now you are starting to see the numbers they have, if you go from 100 soldiers dying a day to 200 soldiers dying a day for ukraine, they don't have the horses >> do you ever think about walking into the office one day and hearing putin is gone? however he may be gone and is there a way to hedge for that >> i waited for stalin, i waited for mao. they died in their beds. >> a great day, oil would go down a lot >> it would be a great day >> oil, is that what you're thinking about >> it would be a great day, period >> for the world >> thank you >> oil would also go down a lot. >> that was me trying to create needless controversy yes, i do think, but i also know he seems to surround himself with a guard, and so far, it

just doesn't look like anyone has been able to level the guy >> but does it make, i mean, cooperman talking about a recession, coinbase talking about a recession, james gorman talking about a recession. as gorman said, nobody knows what the picture is going to be like in a matter of months >> we have talked ourselves into a recession. the consumer is so strong, but we just have decided the consumer's balance sheet doesn't matter, the corporate balance sheet doesn't matter what matters is the fed was stupid again, i'm trying to talk about the way they talk, not on tv on tv, everybody is a diplomat on tv, everyone is, yeah real life, they're saying what a knucklehead powell was, he screwed up i don't believe that >> the journal today did a long story about fighting the last war, having the same policies that they did in terms of the financial crisis, which this was a very different set of economic services and how that exacerbated inflation in a way that hadn't been anticipated but all right, that's where we

are. >> okay, so look >> the question is where are we going? >> i'm defending jay here for a second there's a country with 1.4 billion, and they have an iron hand, dictator until this most recent outbreak, i think many americans decided china passed us both in intellect and firepower. now they're not paying attention to what any scientist is saying, they're trying to stop an illness that is not stoppable because we have no natural immunity to it so suddenly we no longer respect the chinese. i mean, i just see everything is a little upside down here. i think the chinese could easily say, okay, we're going to talk to pfizer. not that they watch the show, and we're done and that's the one that i think is just great. that would be great because then we would have enough -- there would be a settlement of the supply chain that would make it

so jay has a shot. >> you see that as more likely than, say, peace talks in kyiv >> yes, i really think jay -- look, chinese said we can do it this way i think back in november when everyone decided he was a complete moron, knucklehead, didn't know anything, and didn't go to kindergarten, was people felt how did they not know omron would be fine? the chinese, they didn't realize. they thought omicron was going to be really bad >> yeah, the credibility of their leader is at stake, and they're sticking with zero covid, and therefore that opening has not really happened in the way that perhaps people hoped for, and beijing and shanghai with all of the testing requirements, people having to take an hour off work virtually every day to get tested. at some point, i would like to get pack to the stock market i feel like you don't want to talk about it. >> i have been up all night

talking to myself about the stock market >> even lisa went into the next room >> she decided not to stay with me >> tell me about tepper. >> you're being too bullish. remember the teachings this is not the time >> the teachings what is he, yoda >> you have insulted me enough in the first block >> i have insulted you >> we actually requested the money -- supposed to be at 9:00. money was supposed to come at 9:00 >> you're not getting your money. it's stuck your money is stuck. >> we'll spot you. >> i'm getting this money back if my life depends on it >> here's a c-note >> all these people, they come on, bitcoin is fine. i just want my cash back >> when we come back, this activist push over at fedex results in changes to the board and a 53% hike to the dividend we'll get details, look at the

premarket, get to oracle and talk 50, 75, 100, and lots of calls today. best buy, netflix, tractor supply, and more when we come back est in the s&p 500 your portfolio may be too concentrated in big companies. this can leave it imbalanced and exposed when performance varies. invesco's s&p 500 equal weight etf, rsp, is spread equally across the s&p 500, which reduces potential concentration risk and helps keep your portfolio in balance. stay in balance with invesco's rsp. ♪♪ making friends again, billy? i like to keep my enemies close. guys, excuse me. i didn't quite get that. i'm hard of hearing. ♪♪ oh hey, don't forget about the tense music too. would you say tense? i'd say suspenseful. aren't they the same thing?

can we move on guys, please? alexa, turn on the subtitles. and dim the lights. ok, dimming the lights.

. fedex shares on the move this morning looks like it's going to be up by my count about $18. we'll give you a look at it in a second as well why? well, they reached a settlement with an activist investor, the giant hedge fund that does a lot

more than activism but has over the last few years been more active including exxon, lowe's, a number of companies along the way. two new directors added immediately to the board, a third to be agreed upon. shortly will be added as well to the board, so three directors. they also increased the dividend amy lane and jim, are those members, railroad guy known for operations third director shortly in that agreement with d.e. shaw they also increased the dividend significantly. $115 a share now, a 53% increase in the dividend. second largest dividend increase in the country's history as well. and finally, at least the news we have gotten so far this morning in a press release that was released today, 8:30 this morning, they changed their executive compensation program to closely align with total shareholder return, and also to sort of measure cap-x to revenue and things of that nature.

we talked about this name in the past i made the point, jim, some time ago about the possibility of activism at fedex in part because its market cap was roughly half that of u.p.s. while its revenues were similar. what you would hear from shareholders who were frustrated is if you get it right, it could be a double. the tnt deal didn't work out, they spend excessively on planes, their free cash flow conversion is too low, they try to be all things to all people this is a step towards trying to change that. by the way, they have a new ceo, only two weeks in the job. >> although he's from the organization >> president prior to that dave, repeatedly you said someone is going to come in because they were spending so much on planes, europe did not work at all. fred retired, fred smith i'll tell you what's good about the situation. >> tell me >> there has been -- a note today about amazon web services saying low, but they expect the second half strong

i think fedex, if they figured it out, could be as good as united parcel was for the holiday season united parcel has since come down a great deal. there's also labor negotiations that are problematic >> that could be a real problem for them at u.p.s., labor negotiations as well at fedex, we'll get earnings soon the end of the month is going to bring an investor day where we may get additional news, perhaps some additional things in terms of their focus on operations and what their plans are, jim, but this is a significant momefront the country. >> very much >> this is a great american company. the transports have been horrendous when i look at what's going on there, there's really not much that's good. but then last night, we got an amazing quarter from oracle, must better than i thought they told a really good story. you have this fedex news oil is good. we want oil to come back coinbase was down badly, suddenly it's up the ppi was not as desperate as

we thought things are shaping up for a bounce, mostly because i think when i watch "squawk" no one said to buy anything that's when you get the best >> you tweeted this morning about "the new york times" top of the fold, s&p chart is generally what you see >> so funny, i read the dotcom now, so i didn't realize until i saw yours it was top of the fold the one thing, david, we lacked were tv guides, but maybe they don't have any more money. >> satellite truck indicator >> no more satellite trucks, too expensive. >> just zoom everything. the amount of money we saved is incredible >> a guy, 15 minutes, he had to spend the extra money on zoom. >> lee cooperman's shot looked pretty good. >> that was corona >> everybody is like, where is snoop dogg >> it's modello that is the hottest, and then it's pacifico, and then the one lee is pushing.

lee is not pushing >> no, he's not. >> we'll get to oracle and more of what cooperman said we have the opening bell in nine minutes. don't go away. im® even better, we listen. like jack. he wanted a streamlined version he could access anywhere, no download necessary. and kim. she wanted to execute a pre-set trade strategy in seconds. so we gave 'em thinkorswim® web. because platforms this innovative aren't just made for traders -they're made by them. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade welcome to your world. your why. what drives you? what do you want to leave behind? that's your why. it's your purpose, and we will work with you every step of the way to achieve it.

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employees enter and manage their own hr data in a single, easy-to-use software. visit paycom dot com and schedule your demo today. do they know this door is locked coming on the heels of yesterday's drubbing, the 18-1 down day, so many cross currents today. the fed meeting begins we talked bitcoin, ppi, even corporate news we'll get to oracle with futures close to session highs opening bell just a few moments away

let's get to a mad dash. we have 2 1/2 minutes before we get started with trading >> first, your fedex news, you did break the story, it's very

int interesting. people realize that dividend boost is something to hold rates have obviously gone up >> the dividend boost is a significant one, 53%, the second largest that they have ever had in the history of the country. what do you want to talk about >> gm is now below where it came public ford is now at a level where ford is very frustrated. well, adam jonas to the rescue one of our favorite ev ideas right now, internal combustion engine stocks. typically, that shows you adam jonas is saying that ford and gm maybe are not value traps. and he believes that they're committed to an all-ev future long term, but you want to buy them now this is an excellent piece i think that ford is ridiculously low i think that jim farley is doing a great job. if you try to get some of his products, it's impossible. a lot is because we haven't solved the problem of semi-conductors and supply chain. but jim farley is convinced that

his stock is just too cheap. i'm with him >> again, to give you credit, you loved ford from -- i mean. from $6, but obviously, it's reversed >> we sold a lot for the club. you remember the club. >> i'm not a member, no. no >> it's not like it's restricted >> go to cnbc.com/jointheclub. >> let me do that right now. qr code on his head. >> use the qr code in jim's brain. >> you sold ford in the mid-$20s and we want to buy it back, but we talk about it >> you owned it for a huge move up and then you sold it. >> now we want to buy it back. i think farley is committed. i think that the frproduct line are great. there's a ridiculous belief if you're not musk, then you're not smart. can i just say that musk is torturing twitter? just torturing them. >> apparently he's going to do it in person or at least in front of authorities >> they have the ceo

>> when i don't buy your company, you're all coming to the office every day >> the ceo is a nice man and a good man all right. >> he's a real guy, comes to work, tries to do a good job, and he's being heckled to death by musk. musk is despised out there because musk picks on people who are respected. >> despised? >> a lot of people who feel he's gone too far and they all -- they do. >> you did tweet they revere him out there, right, last week? >> revere as a business person, but they think, why can't they avoid all these rules he does? why does gensler turn a blind -- a wrist slap, because they would be afraid to go to jail. but they admire him, but they don't understand why they would go to jail and he's scot free,

and he can make fun of people all he ants. >> there's the open, guys. up 100 points on the big board today. it's been celebrating the launch of the senior loan atf bank shares doing the honors you mentioned tesla. jonas at morgan stanley says maybe even though they're good at pulling it out on production every quarter, maybe move some ebitda from q2 to q3 >> there you go. today is afford day, not tesla day. i happen to like tesla i just feel like the antipathy toward musk is somewhat jealousy but somewhat that he's just cruel. he's cruel but i do like ford a lot my travel trust owns it. i think it's done. i think it's time to make a stand, even if there is a recession. maybe they'll get the chips they need because you can't get a bronco, you can't get a maverick >> yesterday, mary barra said the cadillac lyric ev sold out in four hours. who knows how many they can

make >> that's like how many ford f-150 lightning is sold out, but they're not making a lot, but jim thinks they could make 600,000 in a couple years. i think mary barra has done a good job and the stock is so low. i like ford because it's come down a great kdeal, but these ar stocks that jonas correctly says may not be value traps this time there's a lot of value traps out there. i don't think it's that. >> oracle, beats on eps, margin. guides fiscal '23. organic cloud, 30-plus >> this was an amazing conference call and should be talked about more because it shows you tech is alive and well they're doing so well. and one of the things they have done is very interesting to see that larry ellison was the guy really who spoke for cerner, that acquisition i think he's taking dead aim at a company called epic. and a lot of people, when you go

to the doctor, they use epic he wants to basically rip out epic and come in i think he's got a balance sheet, he can do it. this was a very, very positive quarter. david, these - >> wow >> really good call. >> and the stock is reacting, obvio obviously, very strongly to the earnings >> bought back stock license revenue is 25% i was really encouraged, total revenues expected to grow 20% to 22%. and ellison is talking about the cloud and how well it's doing. >> were there any comments at all about the future or ex expec expectations >> just saying business is very strong >> why isn't this seen as a bellwether saying by the way, this isn't going to be as bad as you think, and multiples are coming through and it's come down too low >> i think that's true i like that analysis >> except you're following the teachings of tepper so you're

not allowed to talk. >> tepper did not rule out a bounce i'm saying the oracle quarter when you look at the wins they had, when you realize, wins in retail, wins in telco, wins in service, wins in financials, it means there's a lot of business being done as much as some people may think that larry is a bit of a braggadocio, i think larry is a billionaire who worked very hard in his life. david, you have often spoken positively about saffron >> you have spoken positively. >> she's a very tough lady they're tough over there, man. >> they are tough. >> herd was a tough guy, too they were just tough >> but look, the market, i think carl, oracle was excellent >> even at the low end, net suite doing pretty well. small businesses, which you think might be more exposed to a pending recession. here's what cat said about macro. >> going forward and despite the

macro environment, we continue to expect the revenue growth in our cloud business will accelerate substantially in fiscal year '23. >> now, that said, deutsche does cut hpe today to hold. 16 target. incremental signs of enterprise weakness in software and semis >> i have not seen enterprise, i have not seen it i have seen people frustrated they didn't get any of the chips they want. the consumer is definitely, that's the new theme today, enterprise weakness. i'm not getting it i'm getting a second rate company, but if you read oracle, you would not think there's any enterprise weakness. the number of logos, as i like to say, are extraordinary. a huge amount of money being spent. >> hpe downgrade maybe makes as much as the best buy downgrade >> ludicrous a 5% yield a terrific ceo it's true the gaming cycle is what a lot of people were worried about. although when you speak to a lot of the good people in that

business, they said, wait a second, we have seen no real sign of a slowdown look, there are places that are doing well and then there are places that are doing poorly, and most of the people don't distinguish among stocks that come on our air. they just don't. and i think that's a shame because there's a lot of companies, david, that are doing quite well that get wrapped up in this whole the market is bad. >> one area that we know is doing well is energy and harold hamm seems to be pretty positive. >> how do you like that? it took you until 9:36 to bring it up. >> i wanted to let you, you know, get through a lot of things first what we're talking about is harold hamm. you know him, you have seen him. comes on our air one of the pioneers in terms of fracking he owns 83% of his company, by the way, but it's not enough he wants the other 17% >> that's incredible he's picked the point. most would say he's late >> and he makes an offer to acquire the company for $70 a

share. as you would note, the stock is trading above that why? well, it's seen as a somewhat low offer. let me tell you the premiums here 9% to yesterday's close. 11% to what they're calling the volume weighted average price over the last 30 trading days. and what they say is a 21% premium for the full year. but of course, yeah, it's moved up a lot because oil has moved up a lot all of energy has moved up a lot. multiple overall would seem to be a bit low versus the group. hence you're seeing this reaction if you really wants it, he's going to have to pay more. they established a special committee to deal with their largest shareholder. he also made it clear in his letter this is not about him selling. not about him at all interested in any way in another alternative or anything else if the special committee says no, then they're just going to go hem and keep their 83%, but

that's where we stand. i guess, jim, carl, maybe it means he thinks there's a great future for energy for a while. >> i think there is. natural gas is down extraordinary. 8.5% i'm trying to find that out, but look, i think one of the things about these oil companies is they generate so much cash that why would you not want the cash yourself >> stock is up 343% over the last two years 64% to date, and harold now, remember when he wrote that billion-dollar check to his ex-wife? and we thought, ooh, that's a lot. now he's worth $23 billion himself. >> no comment. >> no comment? >> no comment. >> okay. i wasn't asking for one. you thinking about checks you have written >> those didn't become memes on the internet >> if i get the check from my bit guy, i might be able to write a check. what's he doing over there

>> oh, my god. >> let me check again. >> all this for $37? >> i just want the money back. show me the money, please. >> to your point about nat gas, freeport is now eyeing a partial restart in about 90 days >> oh, great i know i mean, that just shows you how much bad money there is. >> freeport, the private company, along with cheniere, the major exporter of lng from our country. michael smith has been a dpes with us, ceo, and he had a big accident >> back online, big deal >> it's going to take a while, carl just said >> natural gas should not be -- look, they're not going to export that much we use -- look, it's been so hot. >> this is the wrong freeport, guys we're talking about -- this is a copper company >> the third largest supplier and storage of natural gas >> i don't know? >> ukraine

you don't want them cut off. they have a lot of storage space. don't fret don't sweat the program. oil is not going down a lot. >> you don't believe so. >> it's going up yeah >> well, russian oil is finding a home it's not as though it's not on the market, so it's satisfying the demand apparently in india and china who are no longer buying from certain areas. >> a fungible product. >> right >> we don't have the right refinery our refining is pathetic >> yeah, our refining capacity is an issue in terms of gasoline >> will you touch on that on your doc >> we do not go into refining. this is about -- >> when you come on my show to promote, when you come on "mad money" to promote, i would be ready for that question. >> i'm not going to talk to you about that >> carl. >> there is a downstream element i'm sure you get to, right >> of course, you can't talk

about exxonmobil without talking a bit about downstream >> going to go religious on me i i'm not going to talk religion but we're going to bring people inside the company this is a company that has been, as i said, for 100 years perhaps the most relevant company for that long a period >> did you interview ron? >> i did not interview ron who wrote an incredible book about rockefeller. >> i like steve very much, but i would like you to interview -- >> it's too late now no more interviews to be done. >> geez. okay you want to make fun of me for anything else? >> you're going to love it >> make fun of me, just do - >> what would you like me to make fun of you about? you look very nice today >> i don't know. >> good.

>> i think you'll come up with something. >> david, tepper was saying this is not the time, yet - >> to make money >> just the time to not lose money. the teachings. >> the teachings of tepper >> i learned from tepper tepper one time embarrassed me so badly >> this is the time to avoid losing money >> biblical. god. >> i know you read the list at jpmorgan he had a series of charts looking at prior post-war downturns, and arguing that markets recover even when the economy continues to get worse >> yes, i like that. i like michael, who by the way, said to me, jim, i hope you don't have any money with that bank but yeah, look, there's some really interesting stuff there's a guy i follow, ryan dietrick, very good. and he showed us, there's a lot of stocks that have already hit that level i mean, the home builders. i know when the mortgage rates went to 6%, if you go back to

the last toll brothers call, doug the careo was saying at 5%, 6%, we're fine a lot of people are now talking about 7%, 8% i don't see that coming. i just don't >> the wells cfo is on the tape, mortgage banking income could be down 50% from q1 do not expect any release of cash reserves. that's pretty obvious. >> very obvious, but i look at toll these stocks are selling at five times earnings which means you cut the earnings in half, they're selling at ten times earnings which means they're bottoming. toll bought a lot of stock i would argue their land might be worth that. people hate that group so mauch, they hate tech, they hate real estate they like oil. if you look at some of the stocks, faang, just don't look at faang >> what did you make of yesterday, after the journal had the story about potential 75

hike tomorrow, jpmorgan said that 100 is -- they said nontrivial risk. >> look, i want 100. i want $200 billion in bonds and 100. >> you want it over with >> i'm giving jay the green light. look at manna. you know >> look at what? >> manna oh, faang. >> maana from hell, used to be maana from heaven. a biblical theme >> netflix had a benchmark today. >> helpful >> wasn't that helpful >> thanks for that >> the coinbase call from jpmorgan, thanks >> deutsche, they trim apple to $175 >> yeah, everyone hates apple. >> of the group, i mean, alphabet is the one you hear in terms of being the cheapest. >> that's the cheapest one 16 times earnings. >> 16 times earnings with a growth rate far above that >> look, i don't understand it >> the question is is the ad

market going to go away. during a recession, ads can get cut, they do get cut >> i think they cut all the second rate places and concentrate all their money toward the ones that bring customers in, and alphabet is number one i spent a lot of time with alphabet when i was out there. their business is very strong. does anyone care does it matter >> it has sold off a bit less than many of the others. >> this is strong. you buy the stock if you did research on it if you didn't do research, you wouldn't buy it. >> this is not a bad -- i'm not saying that, i'm asking the question >> yes, it's not a spac. >> no, it is not a spac. >> it's a company that makes a huge amount of money incredibly well run. >> incredible margins. >> the best cfo, maybe in the country. and waymo is everywhere. i was going to jump in front of one to see if it stops >> a.i. is becoming sentient

>> don't kill me that was a weird story >> i saw jenson wong say good job when a machine picked up a thing of jell-o. >> we should point out there's an engineer lat google who claimed their a.i. is now -- >> former engineer >> he's suspended. he said you can't -- i don't know, you have to ask it >> it understands being disconnected >> and it needs to have the right to defend itself that's scary that's where we're headed, terminator >> sky net goes live by the way, a reminder, you can get in on the cnbc investing club with jim. sign up and find out more at cnbc.com or use the qr code on your screen. tenuous gains here at the open but the dow holding, 50.

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. some familiar names on the s&p gainer list. you can't see them here, but occi is on there, marathon, philips 66, but fedex at the top on the heels of the 53% divhike, close to a 2 1/2-month high, as

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take a look at the sectors, energy is strong, 123 print on oil, the highest level since march. semis hoping to rebound, the smh a 52-week low along with nvidia. consumer discretionary is all over the place consumer staples, again floodish, but a bit of a downside open. transportation, carl mentioned the big hike in the dividend for fedex, now 2.1% dividend yield that's pretty good all the other ones are bouncing, fedex was 198 yesterday after a brutal several days. so that's nice to see that stock bowen. the s&p dropping below 120%, in a bear market territory, but join the club. many of the other sectors have

been there for a long time the transports, s&p mid cap. ark innovations, that's a bit of a late-comer for the s&p 500 the sentiment is very extreme. whether you're below 30, you're pretty bad here. off pretty ugly right now. the sentiment is very extreme in the professional invests community. every month basic ofamerica releases their survey of fund managers, whether they're at extremes, these are very extreme levels here, so, for example, 72% believe that global profits will be weak end that's the worst level since september 2008 it's useful to look at long and shorts and

where they're actually going relative to the last ten years, they're long cash, long commodities, health care and underweighting equities in general, tech, european stocks and emerging markets another useful question is what's called the most crowded trades it's a good indicator when a particular trend is starting to top out. right now the most crowded trades are long oil, long commodities. it's 37% here. that replaced long tech many months ago, and short treasuries is also really big right now the theory behind most crowded trades, when everybody is in it, that's preenl when it's starting to top out and long oil appeared commodities, that's an indication that may be topping out. the bottom line here, carl is this is a very, very different

world than just a few weeks ago. if you look at the biggest risks to the market category, it's hawkish central banks right now, a global recession and inflation. look at that it's all about inflation some people are worried about a systemic credit event, but a month and a half ago was the russia/ukraine flect it's number five now o things are different from even six weeks ago. jim, what is on mad tonight? >> i think oil will go higher. indie semi is on tonight spacs have just been horrendous, cost people a lot of money most >> everything created in the last few years

>> we're in a weird period people at home begging for relief. >> they could have bought, i don't know e. coca-cola. >>i tough. >> banks are up. can't figure whether these are blue or black. >> jim, we'll you at 6:00. the dow is up 120, 3767 on this tuesday. if you used shipgo this whole thing wouldn't be a thing. yeah, dad! i don't want to deal with this. oh, you brought your luggage to the airport. that's adorable. with shipgo shipping your luggage before you fly you'll never have to wait around here again. like ever.

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good tuesday morning, i'm carl quintanilla, morgan brennan is on ma tent leave. we do have a two-day fed meeting. >> plenty of corporate news. 30 minutes into the trading session, herer three big movers, oracle shares are up sharply

after posting a better than expected profit. it's sees strong demand for its cloud software here we're talking about cloud not working at loam or remote. coinbase announces it's laying off 18% of its workforce, after a crash of what's been generally speaking, cryptomarkets across the board continental resources shares, up sharply after a takeover bid from chairman and largest shareholders harold hamm in fact that family owns 83% of the company. wants to buy the other 17, at $70 a share. it will set up an independent committee to evaluate the proposal. the fed could boost rates by 3/4 of a point.

steve? >> good morning, the 75 basis-point hike is the likely m move that's likely to accelerate the rate of price hikes. it seems to be another about-face, for jay powell that the -- they were not actively considering it, but it was conditional on inflation flattening out the hike we a pretty good signal the fed is not satisfied with how the outlook is develops. here are three elements. cpi, new york fed one-year inflation expectations surging to a new high, and university of michigan five-year expectation highest since 2008 markets think it will amount to not just faster, but more hikes

overall. the current is around 90 basis points, and then it starts to really widen out 361 by january 2023. the terminal rate right around 4% take a look at how it's all priced june/july now 90% possibilities of two meetings now, and then you have 100 basis points of tightening september, november, we are talking a quadrupling of s rates, which has consequences creating economic pain that can echo both on main street and wall street there is not university support conveying with a panic, thinking it's too far behand the curve. as of today there's no systematic and incredible -- when the market thinking the central bank a panicking, the

market panics too. rather than panicking, the fed is showing that it's treating the threat of inflation as seriously as it treated the threat of the pandemic guys >> you do remember powell answering your question, it was only a few week action, steve, that it was going to stick with 50 obviously when the data changes, you can change your mind, but what is it, do you think, that really would move them to 75 in terms of what they have seen >> i think it's all the things i've mentioned it's a desire to show some symmetry with the threat of inflation. i also think, david, it's a matter of credibility, getting in front of the problem here i think where the fed wants to get, it wants to get to neutral as fast as possible. the thing that would really hurt

the economy is not so much the fed getting to neutral, which is 2 1/2. it's how much further it goes beyond that. right now, let me double check the december contract is so i used january, because that's a clean month, 365. so we're talking about a percentage point above that by the end of this year that is a very rapid move. i think one of the questions for foul tomorrow, is does he still think a soft landing is possible. >> a terminal rate of 4% >> yeah, july 2023, we're tradesing at 390, to be more precise, sir. >> oh, man, another year of this thanks, steve. >> yeah, exactly i wish i had better news >> thanks, steve

legendary investor lee cooperman joined us earlier this morning saying don't expect the bulls to be back any time soon. >> we've gone through the most speculative era, spacs, crypto, all that crap that was going on, we won't likely go back into a bull market very soon. i think we'll see returns to the equity market to be very modest. >> let's continue the conversation with mark aguilar, and jim mcdonald guys, good to see you both omar, i wonder, when we looked at yesterday's action does this feel like a bottom >> it certainty feels like

investors are trying to understand this does have a lot of the current characteristics, where there's massive capitalization from gold to cryptocurrencies to bonds, everything have negative returns except for the dollar. all of those are signs there's no fundamentals driving this sell-off it's more fear, and a lot of behavioral aspects of investors trying to get out of investing at all that's a sign of people not feeling comfortable with uncertainty. i think everybody will be paying attention to what the decision is tomorrow. probably one of the decisions that's been -- we've had in a long time. >> jim, when you think about the decision, i mean, are you gaming now, what the reaction function is versus a to 75, versus 100 even

we've had an increase of 75 basis points in expected fed funds rate increases i don't think the market will have a big problem if there's a 75 basis point hike. the market has gotten some conditioning, and certainly yesterday's weakness was tied to this it's impossible to argue that it matches the current economic environment. i would expect 75 basis points, and don't think it's particularly disruptive to the market. >> omar, you talk about fear even at 33, not quite there yet. >> well, you know, a lot of the metrics of risk, you know, are sort of -- in a lot of the vix is also related to the credit market, that has reacted if you look at credit

conditions, also expectations of earnings have actually not moved that much. that actually puts a bit of the traditional risk like the vix to just trying to get into this area where there is some sort of potential for things to get better i would probably say, though, because of the uncertainty that we're going through, and the way people assess risk, a lot of the metrics tend to do with the high inflation, reaction from the central banks, potentially and probabilities of soft land to go a recession, and all of that is combined into the actual risks that is affected the performance of all asset classes >> jim, i see that you think high-yield bonds may actually be

a place that could be attractive i think that's kind of interesting, especially if we go into a recession high-yield usually didn't perform that witness we think the risk of recession is lower than the market is expected so that, of course, incorporates relatively high spread today we think the credit quality is historically strong. there's been a real improvement of the mix of the company in the indexes. is the forecast of default also still looks really good. you're right if it's a recessionary environment, under to be underweight stocks that's not where we're going finally, omar, wells today says the euro could fall below a buck, within a month i know one of the tips to your views, if you're thinking about international diversification, i have to keep currency in mind. >> absolutely.

in many cases, this is the perfect time when you see these levels of volatility to be able to rebalance your strategy to basically have that diversification. in a certain way when you have bubbles in the markets, you tend to be alreadycorrelated to chasing returns. if anything, this volatility will provide opportunity for clients and investors to think about long-term objectives that means looking at currencies and looking at the impact that that does have in the long-term investment solutions. >> omar, appreciate that a big day tomorrow jim, as well, thanks so much tomorrow you can join the adviser summit, sharing inflation, you can register at cnbceve

cnbcevents.com/fa-summit we'll talk fedex, the shares are surging, after the company is adding three new directors to its board. we'll give you the details. b of a downgrading best buy, shifting their ratings to favor consumers needs over wants, results in a bullish supply from tractor supply, and a lot more when "squawk on the street" continues.

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coinbase is the latest crypto company to announce job cuts kate rooney has the latest. coinbase plans to lay off 18% of its workforce, roughly 1800 people an e-mail this morning, saying we appear to be entering a recession. the company, quote, grew too quickly and needs to manage the burn rate and increase efficiency i sat down with the chief operating officer ahead of this news she said it was a difficult, but necessary decision she pointed to the economic back drop and says coinbase has lived through similar downturns before. >> i think anyone would acknowledge we're in a rapidly chaining environment we've had jamie dimon and others

talk about an upcoming economic hurricane, so given what's happening in the economy, it feels like the most prudent thing to do. they started with a pause, and two weeks later rescinded some job offers, going further today with the job cuts it's the biggest and latest crypto-companies to do so. jpmorgan also downgrading the stock this morning, cutting the price target by more than half if they're right for the need for a management to lower costs and more potential down side if the markets don't stabilize. back to you. >> you know, kate, the armstrong blog post is so interesting. he's very candid and kind of gives you the calculus going back in time about where they

saw growth headed, and how they needed to scale. but he does admit to the fact they just thought they were going to need more people. >> he's known for his communication style, and rately get to the point, saying we went too far, grew too quickly, we've got to scale back costs, saying we're going to focus on the highest revenue growth area, not necessarily spending on the vc investment it is, that's something that 'emlie choy and i talked about, but he's known for that style of communication. >> kate, thank you. let's mcin nathan macaulay pressure your time

he these the kinds of moves that will lower user cost base enough to continue to do big well >> i think a lot of what we are seeing here is a kind of a pullback in the retail businesses a lot of the growth in these retail-oriented businesses was driven primarily by trading volume it just isn't there as much anymore with fed money policy overall, tightening of the economy. so we start to along at across the board retail, and some of them just need to pull back, like brian said. there's been some exuberance in the markets and need to adjust to the new reality we are facing. >> do you think a reversal in fed policy will then results in a resumption of trading activity >> yeah, i think so.

as we look -- basically costs of capital and overall market restructure, as there's more money available, people -- retail and institutional, frankly, like to allocate crypto a our side anchorage is institutional strict will you. people are staying around. we don't see them exiting their positions. despite the fact there's quite a bit of volatility going on, institutions are still holding on to their crypto, and looking to expand that irbecoming over time one of the great things is there's a long tradition of building the next set of incredible features, incredible products during bear markets, so i this i one of the things we'll see over the next 12 to 18 months is an increase in time to built, and looking at opportunities to build new stuff

while the fed takes its time to adjust monetary policy it's not as if the fix to inflation is going to happen overnight. it's something we'll have to strap in for quite some time so there's going to be quite a lot of time to build the next set of reserves. >> you mentioned a long tradition. nothing feels particularly long about the history of crypto -- and particularly going through a period like this you talk about a new reality i'm curious how you define that. >> i think the reality in crypto is we go through bear and bull cycles all the time. anchorage was started in 2017. this is our third bear cycle in each of those cycling, 2018, 2020 with the beginning offed

pandemic, now entering into this one, we have invested in business we looked at ways to grow, expand, many of the crypto systems are going to be looking at doing that as well. the thing that's different about this one is there's a bear market with the back market of -- will it act as the inflation hedge as we all think it mike, or does it tend to contract with the markets, like it looks like it's doing right now. >> what about confidence, it being erot the in terms of the many people who have owned they assets, or unable to actually withdraw them. how important is that? >> i think about confidence in the asset class itself, which

likely shouldn't be that eroded, because crbitcoin and other cryptos are down, but they're down as many tech stocks are in many ways they're performing like the fintech stocks, maybe even a bit better. you would say a -- just the overall back drop. about but the other aspect is which counterpart do you work with this past several weeks hag a masterclass case of working with insti institutions, with lending platforms, custodian platforms

we think here that more of this business will go towards regulated financial institutions we have the first national bank to hold crypto we feel we're part of that trend and look forward to the increased trust in the regulated financial institutions. >> finally, i'm wondering if you think the way it's behaved in the last year, can we truly put to bed that it is an inflation hedge? if that's the case, what is the next key argument? does it move to payment mechanic tism or something else >> i would contend the jury is out whether it's been proven or disproven. inflation tends to trail monetary policy. we saw during the pandemic quite a lot of money printing globally, and the next several years are really where the

inflation is going to happen so is bitcoin going to act as an inflation hedge? are fed monetary policy and central bank monetary policy across the world going to respond? the jury is out whether crypto and bitcoin specifically acts as an inflation hedge in terms of payment use cases, absolutely the thesis for, say, stable did not coins and other cryptos with the low transaction cost, global sentiment, will very likely rise as one of the most compelling use cases, as we replatform, the financial systems and financial institutions >> yeah, the long-term answers don't come quickly appreciate it. we'll talk good soon thanks a lot for your time. >> as we head to the break, twitter is among the stocks you

want to keep an eye on, elon musk is reportedly gearing up to address the employees in what would be a virtual town hall on thursday it would mark the first time, of course, since he agreed to buy the company that he has done something along those lines. we have a lot more ahead stay with us

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shares of fedex up sharply after the company a couple hours ago announced it's adding three new directors to its board two of the new directors have been announced, and a third to be mutually agreed phone with a large hedge fund that's been ac active. >> also the company agreed to adjust the executive pays. there's a number of -- it's

more. >> chris, there's been a lot of frustration in the past, when you look at a company like u.p.s., the free cash flow conversion rates are too low, not doing well with the at&t acquisition in europe, on and on fred smith, of course, the company's found e., a long, long, longtime ceo stepped down a few weeks ago, so this is an important moment for the company, carl, and more important when they have an investor day a couple weeks from now. but the market is certainly receives this well, obviously avoided what we would have assume would have been a proxy

fight if they had not sort of been willing to sit down and talk best day since '93 for fedex >> it's hat to know, and then perhaps a hope that the new directors will hold them more accountable. >> obviously helping. coming up after the break, on that prosser almost 75 basis-point rate hike. we're back in two minutes.

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russian troops are closing in on an eastern city in ukraine. as official from that region says about 80% of that city is under russian control. it's been under bombardment for weeks. president joe biden will travel to the middle east next month. as the war in ukraine continues to tighten oil supplies. yellowstone national park is closed today after intense storms caused dangerous flooding, rockslides and damage to roadways. one road has been completely washed away in several places. carl, back over to you

we're we're into trading >> good morning. great to have you. you're always a great shooter with us. i wonder what you make of 75, and somehow there's forward guidance as a tool. >> they never should talk about the commitment to do 50 basis points, but they kind of indicated the last meeting that's not the way to use forward guidance

they should be focusing more on the reactions, how the decisions will react, not with specifics interest rate forecasts,ings about who the policy actions will be, so this in guidance they claim it's providing information to the markets now it indicates they're falling further behind, so now they find themselves in this conundrum, we said we were only going to do 50 now we have to back out on that. >> so the use of forward guidance i think is partly to blame here more generally the blame is the fed has not responded to inflation for over a year now. it's taken them a long time.

it's their own fault part of the challenge we're in is ma egg -- it's made for itself that's really unfortunate. quote, the short answer is almost certainly not, do you think it's that cut-and-dried? >> no, i don't think it's that cut-and-dried. i think there is, but that doesn't mean i'm forecasting that's what will happen, but i think there is a danger. it depends on how the fed reacts over time. they certainly have put themselves in a position where they have increased the risk of that happens now they're rapidly trying to react quick ly

the fact they're in this squeeze is they didn't do it earlier it just didn't have to be this way. that's the frustrating part to me, it doesn't have to be this way. it reminds me of what used to be the stop-go or go-stop policies of the fed, where it's pedal to the metal, bob employment appeared the economy, only to fund you have to turn around and slam on the brakes to prevent inflation rising that's what this reminds me of i thought we learned years ago that that was not the right way to conduct policy, and yet

that's what it looks like what we're doing now. >> to be fair. chinese lockdowns, supply chain issues, the war in ukraine, but given you believe they have misread this entirely, you can't have much confidence that they're going to get it right from here, do you, charles >> well, no, i don't yes, of course there's always extenuating circumstances, but you try not to make the same mistakes twice, and the fed is always priding itself on risk management, yet they didn't manage the risk of inflation at all during this.

and an experiment that used to be modern -- by advantages with no costs at all to the economy well, we just tried that it's not pretty. hopefully we won't hear any more about modern monetary theory for a while. i'm not saying the fed did that intentionally, but in effect that's what it did we felt into this trap now we find ourselves in this very uncomfortable dilemma, and like i said, this use of forward guidance, dithering around, not responding to the inflation was in fact another table in 2001, have all fed into this but, remember -- one other point here it's important to note that,

yes, there were supply shocks, constraints that affected inflation, but it was the stimulus from monetary and fiscal policy that was overwhelmingly powerful that actually may help contribute to the supply constraints, because demand was increased so much that the supply factor couldn't keep up. that just aggravated what the fed did. >> it will be fascinating to see

what policy experiments do not get repeated in the years to come there will be more crises, we definitely know that charles, thanks, we will talk soon. still to come, bust buy have been a decent day. it's been a rough year, though, of course. but getting a downgrade from bank of america today. behind that callthe analyst first, though, a message from senior field producer patrick mansion, as cnbc celebrates pride month. >> i joined cnbc about four years ago. i was recruited through the association of lgbtq journalists. it's been an amazing adventure, from covering the white house for this company, an amazing and very supportive place. for someone looking to get into this industry, i would recommend find yourself a cheerleader. they encourage people bonding with one another, supporten one

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time now for our etf spotlight. were looking at xrt, the retail. retailers have been suffering from inflation, rising rates, consumers shifting their habits, and, of course, gas and groceries as well. leading our next guest to shift her own thesis, bank of america retail analyst liz suzuki. you downgraded best buy as a result of that you say the uncertainty doesn't adjust the valuation give our viewers a bit more sense as to the reasons behind the call. >> thanks for having me on the

show >> we have seen an increasing shift of consumer behavior from spending on formerly wants, now more into needs, gas and groceries, as you mentioned. some of the categories that fall into that, we've seen some pretty weak sales results in our data going through, you know, year for date, but accelerating into may we had expected some weakness in march and april as we are still his payments, but we didn't see the pressure easing in may, which is interesting additionally, we also saw survey results we run every three months turning more bearish in the categories like consumer electronics. our surveyed responsibilitiants said they have a lower intention to spend in the next 12 months,

which means that not only is consumer electronics losing wallet share now, but little that it's over the next 12 months as well >> i look at the p.e. of the stock, and it's surprising in a way how low it already is. i guess that's typically of best buy to a certain extent, but trading right now at seven times, and that's still too high >> yeah. wethink it's closely fairly valued, but relatively cheap stocks can get cheaper when data is going the wrong way we think, we'll start oz a bottom and sentiment improve, so that's what's going on with the stock today. even low multiple stocks can get

lower. >> liz, we mentioned the call earlier this morning, and also the pair trade with tractor supply i wonder if you could talk about what that says about their customer base, and how that results in maybe some relatively strength and consumer spend. tractor supply announce positive, ahead of consensus expectations, and sales growth of about 8%, eps is expected to come in at or above consensus estimates. that's a nice positive surprise. tractor supply, given they are a rural lifestyle retailer, so they're serving a customer base that's seen an increase in democrat graphs, right those are the market where people can actually afford real estate so we think these are favorable

for lackor supply as the migration continues. additionally, they're in livestock. pet has been one of the categories in our data that has been continued to remain strong on a three-year basis, still growing, and hasn't fee sell rated at all, tools, hardware, work wear, which is things that tractor supply sells, these are mostly needs-based categories. as, you know, consumers are making these shifts toward prioritizing needs versus wants. >> shares of best buy are up today, liz are you insulted since the market is not seemingly listening to you are use call? >> no the at all there's many things that can move stocks. as people assess their estimates going forward, you know, when we do see some risks to next year's errands versus consensus and the company's own guidance, that

would be potentially a negative catalyst so we think the stock probably trades sideways from here. >> thank you what oracle's results may signal for the market and a lot more on crypto and the layoffs at coinbase as we're trying to hold on to gains. dow has gone negative by about 41 points. "squawk on the street" is back in a moment. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done.

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with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app. as consumers struggle with $5gas, the sky high prices might be beneficial for some of the big trance sport companies. frank holland explains >> transports are up today, but down over the past week as investors become more and more concerned about rising fuel prices for tucking and for logistics. but $5 a gallon is nothing new to trucking. diesel prices, that's the main fuel for the industry, they crossed $5 weeks ago and have risen even more sharply lanconsumer prices but the largest players can benefit from rising prices because they

charge customers a fuel surcharge based on retail prices while they generally pay just over wholesale prices. in fact, two of the largest truckers got 10% of revenue from those surcharges the real question, how gas prices impact consumer spending power and inventory needs. i spoke with the ceo of zebra tech technologies he said his customers are still moving inventory, they're adjusting to rapidly changing trends >> having the right inventory is probably the challenge for most. if you look at retailers, i think what a lot of retailers have said in the last month or so was that the demand pattern changed quite a bit. >> and those higher fuel prices may actually help those public players as one of the factors is reducing new truck orders and tempering incoming competition from independent truckers. new truckers are down 39% year over year. carl, back over to you >> thanks, thanks so much.

let's get to dominic chu for a sector sort. >> there's a direct line between the story from frank holland that brought us here to the energy sector. far and away the best performer as you can see behind me, up 2.5% on the day so far the leaders there include names like occidental petroleum, philips 66 and marathon oil as well those gains alongside a rise in crude prices today with tighter global supplies already setting prices up 60% so far this year that can translate into higher prices at the pump, like frank mentioned. and that trend may not be abating anytime soon with analysts at usb raising their brent forecast to $130 a barrel by the end of september, so fuel prices maybe not going down anytime soon stick with us. there's more "squawk on the street" coming up right here

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. stocks off their highs we had been negative, we're positive again let's check in with bob pisani, get more on what's really going on in today's action >> very indeterminant trading. vix is still above 30 here

i want to point out a few sectors moving leisure and travel after hitting new 52-week lows you think you would get a bounce with the market bouncing, but no. we started positive in all of these stocks and they have all drifted lower throughout the middle of the day, trading in a 3%, 4%, 5% trading range in the last couple hours. that's a good sign of the whole peak travel argument, the market trying to get ahead of that. another thing that's interesting is consumer staples. they're notably weak, coke, proctor really weighing on the dow. these are fairly expensive compared to the rest of the market most of them trading in the mid to high 20s on a multiple market there's been a lot of interest in off brand retailers in the last few weeks on the high food inflation issues maybe that's weighing on that as well the other important thing today is another tough day for interest rate sensitive sectors. we saw utilities at 52-week lows we saw reits at 52-week lows, and now, again, a weakness here,

and david, the i-shares, the lqd, corporate bonds, also have been notably weak in the last few days david, back to you >> good recap there, bob we'll see what the rest of the day brings us. that will do it for us on "squawk on the street. let's get over to "tech check" with starts now. >> good tuesday morning. welcome to "tech check." deirdre is off today this morning, stocks coming off their worst drop in weeks, as you know investors eyeing a rate hike tomorrow that could be the fed's biggest in decades if coinbase is anything to go off of, there's more pain to come, at least for crypto. announcing some layoffs. we'll get more on that, that said, not all tech is created equal. we have the street's top tech picks this hour. >> let's start with a big winner this morning, oracle that stock surging, up about 9% after locking in a beat on the top and bottom lines license revenue a big driver for th