lqd, corporate bonds, also have been notably weak in the last few days david, back to you >> good recap there, bob we'll see what the rest of the day brings us. that will do it for us on "squawk on the street. let's get over to "tech check" with starts now. >> good tuesday morning. welcome to "tech check." deirdre is off today this morning, stocks coming off their worst drop in weeks, as you know investors eyeing a rate hike tomorrow that could be the fed's biggest in decades if coinbase is anything to go off of, there's more pain to come, at least for crypto. announcing some layoffs. we'll get more on that, that said, not all tech is created equal. we have the street's top tech picks this hour. >> let's start with a big winner this morning, oracle that stock surging, up about 9% after locking in a beat on the top and bottom lines license revenue a big driver for the quarter, two nine-figure

deals oracle mentioned evidence that the company's push to move customers to the cloud gaining some traction. ceo catz says she sees the cloud building more than 30% in con constant constant currency in 2023. i was wondering how oracle was going to fare given the strength we saw in mongodb, this cloud database upstart the upside surprise in oracle revenue, $240 million above the constant currency guide. that's almost as big as all of mongodb's revenue for the quarter that they just reported, $285 million so i guess a couple ways to look at that. it shows the overall size of oracle, of course, oracle does a lot more than just database, but also the growth opportunity for some of these scrappier players, and despite the macro backdrop, there still is demand for this infrastructure technology. >> yeah, morgan stanley today,

jon, positive read on software and i.t. demand, but they point out the pushback is that the beat was driven by legacy license strength with some upside from very big sas vendors. they also don't break out the serna contribution makes things cloudier than they might be otherwise >> cloudier, yes a year, 18 months ago, even a couple years ago, weakness year over year on the cloud side would have been really bad, bad, bad, but it just seems like, you know, the street just wants to see strength coming from somewhere. it doesn't matter, a little weakness in the cloud, fine, but upside overall showing there's demand for this technology that is positive you know, it's interesting oracle, despite being up around 9% right now, 8.5%, this is where it was trading in march, april of 2021. and you know, i was looking. it's the same thing for apple, microsoft, alphabet, tesla, nvidia, all of them are trading about where they were in march

or april of 2021 so i wonder if this is one of those men in black scenarios where you just forget everything that happened over the past five quarters that's where the market is sitting right now. we have to wait and see what the fed says, but a lot of these stocks that have been favorites, if you forget the past five quarters, everything is fine >> right tommy lee jones and thepen in the pocket oracle, of course, is the bright spot today, but the software sector was not safe from the sell-off yesterday how do you protect your portfolio? our next guest is calling microsoft, servicenow, and workday his top defensive picks in the sector. michael, great to have you are we -- do we consider oracle a bellwether at this point >> yeah, thanks for having me on again. i appreciate it. i think we have said that there are a lot of platforms with this software that are well positioned to take advantage of vendor consolidation so there's one thing that starts happening in a downtird, cfos start to sharpen their pencil

and say we're working with 100 vendors, is there an opportunity to reconcile that list that's where some of the large cap vendors are likely to see that strength, and oracle would fit in that bucket, but we don't cover the name >> we'll get to micro. two questions. one is what thread connects microsoft now and workday, and when you do listen to oracle talk about shorter invoice durations, potentially pressuring cash flow down the road, are these names that are immune to that kind of dynamic >> not immune, but i think better mitigated so these are businesses that i think have a few things working well for them. number one, significant degree of visibility. they have incumbency with existing customers that goes a long way towards maintaining good customer relationships and capturing better spend each have merchandising capabilities microsoft is among the strongest at this. they can lean in to cybersecurity, lean into

opportunities like collaboration and give more for less, effectively squeezing out some of the other vendors certainly not immune, but if i were taking a defensive position, and we have said this is our bucket for defense, we don't think the choppy waters that we're seeing in the markets are likely to go away, at least throughout the summer period upcoming we think those names are better positioned from a multiple perspective. pricing in a pretty dire recessionary scenario already. >> pretty dire recessionary scenario so depending on what we get tomorrow, language wise, out of the fed, this 75 basis point hike expectation, i mean, i guess that's now built in based on what we saw yesterday but what do you think software has to lose or to gain depending on what we hear from there >> yeah, i mean, look, some of the macro stuff, i think we have needed some degree of resolution around the uncertainty that's happening there. the macro data points keep

worsening even though the software fundamentals are holding up strongly. i think we just need resolution. investors by and large are asking the fed to take a heavier hand if there's a larger move, at least that shows there's stronger conviction around making sure that we can curb some of the inflationary pressures that are playing through in the market. look, what's been amazing is we called this a game of chicken. investors have been telling us the fundamentals are deteriorating in software, but we're not seeing it. q1 was much better than feared hardly any companies took an opportunity to reset expectations they're telling you, we have good visibility. this trend toward digitization is not going anywhere. the first thing we need to see is resolution of some uncertainty. ideally, inflationary pressures start to lighten the fed conveys with better certainty what's ahead, and investors can kind of then go into look forward mode instead

of look 24 hours ahead, which unfortunately, feels like where everyone is at in this near term focus right now. >> what do you make of this, i don't know if you noticed the same thing if you look at a lot of software names and just rewind the clock five or six quarters, so many of them are trading right about where they were five or six quarters ago to me, like the drops feel kind of painful and maybe it's arbitrary in a way, but it's interesting if you look march, april for some stocks, then for the smaller caps, maybe also in the mid-cap range, one more quarter before that, that's about where they were. anything in particular investors should take away from that >> i'll say a couple things. number one is software is now trading in aggregate about five times next month's revenue that's been a fairly comfortable backstop a lot of ways for investors to make money if you choose high quality companies at those levels and the good news relative for those starting with a fresh perspective is that all of the software companies by and

large have traded off similar amounts, so the vast majority of our coverage universe is down 60% year to date and so i do think that creates opportunity. the other thing you have to consider, jon, is we're rolling numbers forward, so even though the rewind the clock is not as far as one might intuitively think given how far these moves are, these companies have been compounding free cash flow revenue at 20, 30, for some companies 40%, so the valuation levels are becoming much more compelling i think workday is at the lowest valuation level we have seen since the company ipo'd, that been across a number of companies and software, too. you are getting better opportunities for those that can take a longer term stance here under the view that the trends toward digitization aren't going anywhere we just need some resolution and ideally some sense of what's ahead. >> finally, and i know our focus is software this morning, but

when we talk about incremental signs of weakness in enterprise, others argue it is showing up in software, in semis we have a downgrade of hpe today at a competitor. would you allow that there are some things in corporate america that are being considered expendable >> yeah, no question i certainly don't want to paint the picture that the macro is not changing i think this is a situation where you have the haves and have nots. we have pointed to selective basket of names which we think are better positioned to withstand any macro choppiness in software, but no question, things are changing. the first culprit i would point to is europe we're hearing signs of failed cycle slowing. some deals pushing further out more concerns around cybersecurity given all that's taking place there no question the environment is not the same as two years ago. but i think there are a number of compelling offsets for a number of software companies

currently. so while things are changing, we're asking to what degree, and the stock is down 60%, but the ability to hit targets remaining relatively intact for these companies it doesn't feel as weak as what the market is pricing in currently >> michael, a great setup. appreciate that very much. talking some defensive plays in software, jon. >> let's talk even more software our next guest predicts more pain ahead for the sector but sees value in names with free cash flow support, including data dog, snowflake, and crowdstrike. joining us, jammen ball, which is a great name for the nba finals i imagine you're probably a warriors fan >> oh, yes >> so looking at software, not basketball, for a moment, again, what are the names that you particularly think have strength in this environment and what should investors really stay away from still? >> look, i think what i have been excited about when it comes

to software is what i have always been excited about, which is market leaders who are early in their s-curves delivering profitable growth. when i look at software, the secular trends to the cloud and in particular the trends to cloud infrastructure and cloud data infrastructure, those aren't slowing if the last ten years have been about the move to cloud application software, i would argue the upcoming ten are going to be about the shift to cloud data infrastructure. and names we're seeing in those categories are doing something incredibly unique, which is delivering mature free cash flow margins of 20%, 30%, while also growing 60%, 70%, 80% plus so businesses that show that they don't have to wait until mature cycles of their life cycle to get to free cash flow is something that's incredibly unique i think there are a lot of tailwinds that are slowing and will continue over the next ten

years. >> but, and i don't know, one of the two, a lot of these companies are the types of high-growth names that just a couple months ago people were running away from quickly. so is this just a valuation issue where enough of them have come down to levels where it's worth taking a flier or how do you sort of rationalize the market tends to turn against these kinds of companies in a rising rate environment, and you know, by the day, there seem to be questions about, a few days ago, we thought 50 basis points was the ceiling. now, almost certainly one, maybe two 75-basis-point hikes >> there are things that are outside these companies' control, particularly the macro around rates that are going to affect these businesses' valuation, but the iron law is really free cash flow and companies thet can deliver that are ones that i believe will present compelling opportunities for the

foreseeable future right now, you have to look at the macro. and for software assets in particular, i view those as long duration assets, which means their present value today is heavily dependent upon free cash flow generated in the future sometimes, three, four, five-plus years out, and as interest rates rise, the discount rate we apply goes up, which said another way, makes them worth less today. so that's what we have been seeing over the last four, five, six months and i would really categorize it as a normalization we had valuation in multiples up in the stratosphere over the last 18 months as rates went to zero, and we're normalizing back now. and yes, we have overshot kind of the long-term average we're about 30% below what i view as the long-term sustainable average for software multiples but we have peak uncertainty both as it relates to rates and peak uncertainty as it relates to fundamentals of software in a potential down

market particularly, when we have new business models. like consumption that are not battle tested, and so we can speculate how defensive and how rezil ysilient we think they wi, but we wouldn't have data for a few more quarters. you have peak uncertainty on two different really key vectors that make it tough for new investors to jump in now >> yeah, and because you don't expect any clarity around rates maybe for another couple quarters, i mean, one thing's for sure, if anyone is going to be as aggressive as you are suggesting and buy these names in this period, you're going to have to go through a period where you are going to be trying to look past buyer's remorse, i imagine. >> yes, it's a choppy market, for sure the incremental data points we're getting on inflation, which are a key input to then rates are getting worse, not better and so there will be incremental choppiness there and then at the same time, we have not seen earnings revisions

as part of a down market generally in a recession and down market, companies tighten budgets. they freeze budgets, which then impacts software, and we haven't seen negative earnings revisions yet. again, it is a debate, will we, and to what magnitude, and to what magnitude will best in breed mission critical software businesses be impacted by these revisions versus not at all? i think the base case is we'll see them there will be a reaction and we'll be able to prove the counterfactual in terms of how resilient these mauld models wie for a couple quarters. >> i want to take a weird turn and ask you about talent, because there are a lot of employees of a lot of these companies that are not happy, certainly about their compensation right now, because it tends to be in stock. however, this is a great time, i

imagine, to join one of these companies fresh with the stock priced where it is right now so while some people might want more cash, i imagine people who are getting a new job at a mongodb, et cetera, would be a lot more excited perhaps about having a significant amount of their compensation in equity to what extent does that play out positively, you think, for these companies that might already have a good position in the multi-cloud environment where they're establishing themselves >> look, i think in down markets, the best businesses will expand the gap and expand their market share relative to competitive peers. spend consolidates amongst best of breed vendors in these periods. while yes, these stocks are down, it does present compelling opportunities for the future but like most markets over the last 18 months, a rising tide lifted all boats and there was

less dispersion amongst who rises proportionally more than others i think equally right now, we have seen less dispersion in terms of who gets whacked. we all -- all softwares are all in 50, 60, 70-plus, but the next 18 months we're really going to see who is set up for the next decade plus of durable profitable growth and for employees joining those businesses now, i think it does present a compelling upside. again, over the long term. the short term, i expect some choppiness >> yeah. some choppiness seems pretty certain. jamin, thank you >> thanks for having me. >> when we come back, layoffs, liquidations and chilly demand coinbase's chilly winter warning coming up next "tech check" is just getting started.

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i.t. hardware. deutsche shuffling its ratings on what it calls macro environmental fears starting with apple they cut their target from $200 down to $175 they downgrade hpe to hold on

spending worries and on the flipside, what does deutsche like analysts are bullish on net app, expecting growth to accelerate in the first half of next year i think their target on hpe goes to $16 a lot of those calls as we said the last few weeks driven more about the macro than the individual company result itself >> yeah, indeed. well, now let's talk crypto. tech layoffs gaining steam as those crypto companies start to cut ranks in what some are calling a new crypto winter. last week alone, crypto.com, peter thiel's backed blockify, and now coinbase, all announcing they're cutting their workforces kate rooney joins us with the latest kate >> hi, jon coinbase plans to lay off 18% of its workforce, which nets out to about 1100 people. brian armstrong telling employees in an email, we appear to be entering a recession after a ten-plus year economic boom. he said the company, quote, grew

too quickly, and coinbase needs to manage its burn rate and increase efficiency. he says, quote, it's now clear that they overhired. i also sat down with coinbase chief operating officer emily troy ahead of the news she said it was difficult but a necessary decision points to the economic backdrop and says coinbase has survived similar downturns before she also said she's looking tacoach employees to focus more on the long term >> coinbase is a long term play, and i think that when you think about companies that are in new categories much in the same way that amazon or tesla was back in the day, you're going to have a challenging environment, especially in a risk-off environment, both for employees and investors. that said, we have very deep conviction in the long-term value of the stock, and so we think that anyone who makes an investment, whether they're an employee or investor, will have a handsome return over the longer term. >> coinbase had put a pause on

hiring and then two weeks later extended that, rescinding some job offers and going a step further with the news today that comes amid an 80% drop in coinbase's stock this year, and a crash we have seen in crypto prices jpmorgan also downgrading the stock ahead of the news this morning and cutting its price target more downside for the stock if crypto markets don't stabilize back to you. >> kate, thanks. >> there's a lot of negative sentiment out there. prices are down, so what to do with the crypto space? what happens to coinbase and others castle island ventures nick carter joins us to discuss alongside moffiettnathansonmoffs lisa ellis this talk about the long term in crypto, bitcoin just came to be in 2009, so it's been a product of this bull market post, you

know, recession. and so i wonder how do you even gauge where this goes from here, especially since some of the fundamental ideas about it, the digital gold thing, the inflation hedge thing, have been disproven in the recent market >> it's a fair point, meaning crypto essentially came to being or bitcoin certainly came to being by no coincidence in the midst of the financial crisis, as a means for creating a global decentralized currency that would be free from some of the vagaries of the financial markets. so we don't know exactly what will happen. however, we have certainly seen even over the last 14-year period four or five major crypto winters where we have gone kind of repetitively through these big boom/bust cycles in crypto, and if history is a guide, it's not uncommon to see an 80% drop

peak to trough in the value of bitcoin. we're down i think about 65%, 66% now, so it's not inconceivable we would see a further leg down, but typically, or historically at least, the troughs have still landed four, 5 times higher than the prior trough so meaning the last trough was only at about $4,000 for bitcoin, that was only three years ago, and so it's not at all crazy we could still see a leg down and basically go through a winterperiod, which often lasts 18 months to two years, before we see another surge in crypto asset values i wouldn't, though, lose sight of the fact that ongoing investment into the underlying technology continues unabated throughout that timeframe. >> it's interesting, nick, that kind of assumes that the crypto system is working. and so we can talk about the financial crisis and mortgage

backed securities and kind of the revelation that the system, that system wasn't working, perhaps that led to this desire for a decentralized financial system, but for all of the turmoil in the markets over the past several quarters, the markets seem to have held up pretty well. but in crypto, that's where we have seen these systemic proproble s whether we're talking about stable coins, celsius. is the crypto market itself structured in a healthy way? >> it's experiencing a flush of leverage from the system, and you're right, far too much leverage was built up, and a lot of these ideas were pretty unsuitable i mean, stable coin that's not fully reserved, a lending platform like celsius that puts user funds in extremely risky de-fi protocols, those ideas are being challenged by the market the underlying actual technology here is functioning just fine. whether it's bitcoin itself, nothing has changed whatsoever or whether it's the architecture

of decentralized finance, it's still working 24/7, and you know, if you look at bitcoin, it's fundamentally a vote of no confidence in the monetary system i'm not seeing a ton of cause for confidence in the monetary system, so certainly, we're all selling off here alongside all kinds of other risk assets but sort of the core premise to me remains intact. just wanting to protest this sort of extremely arbitrary nature of the sort of established monetary system, even if bitcoin is suffering heavily here >> lisa, you know, when we think about history and all those peaks and troughs we have been thinking about and watching for the past decade, let's say, some argue have happened in a period of easy money, cheap money, a lot of stimulus on the fiscal side and if that period is truly over, i just wonder how we ever get back to a high water mark. is history relevant?

>> well, it may take longer, right? potentially. the venture, ultimately, as much as they're very speculative assets, the crypto tokens are a proxy of a form for the underlying projects. it's sort of a pseudoform of venture capital money, funding the underlying projects in crypto technology. and that technology continues to advance, that funding good projects will still bubble up. so i would think of it sort of along the same lines as mirroring a bit of what we're likely to see in venture funding where it may pull back, there may be more stringent restrictions on which projects really get funded. we may see tokens fall away entirely, probably quite a number of them but through that, we'll likely still see some of the more --

the ongoing underlying advancement of the technology. if you believe in the power of crypto technology in all of these different use cases, whether it's decentralized finance, whether it's for nfts and asset tracking or whether it's for forms of payment, for example, cross border or as an alternative to fiat, those underlying use cases have still been the same as ten years ago, and the technology and the background continues to progress while the market goes through the big swings >> my question, nick, when it comes to it, and i get it, the value of blockchain overall, it reminds me in a way of open source 20-plus years ago when people are saying this is the future of software, and therefore, bet on linux and these other companies to beat microsoft. they didn't beat microsoft microsoft adopted open source, the entire software industry adopted open source and a lot of big players got bigger because

of that. why are these various cryptocurrencies going to be the future just because blockchain is the future? and what system has to get built into crypto to replace some of the stable coin and other systemic issues that have cropped up in this time? >> yeah, actually, i think your analogy is pretty apt, honestly. you know, linux is the most used operating system in the world today. even though, and it was adopted by big tech companies. similarly, i expect the financial industry to adopt these open architectures proposed by public blockchains because they're more interoperable, because they're more convenient, and because fundamentally open architectures win. they give consumers what they want it's like open banking on steroids stable coins in my opinion are far superior to sending wires or using an exclusionary financial

railslike a paypaypal or somethg like that. it's the force of that architecture that is going to power them to win. of course, there's issues there, and we have seen really poor implementations of stable coins. there certainly are some much more regulated and functional ones that are fully reserved and backed and i think we can lean into that and support those projects, and they'll continue to do extremely well yeah, i think fundamentally, the key innovation here is an open financial and permissionless financial architecture which is why this will ultimately be persuasive >> i'm not sure yet whether that means you bet on bitcoin or coinbase or visa, but we'll continue to track it lisa, nick, thank you. time now for a news update let's get to tyler mathisen. >> thank you very much here's what's happening at this hour inflation is still running hot i probably don't have to tell you that, but there was at least a modicum of good news in this

morning's producer price index report headline inflation was up .8% last month that matched expectations, and the so-called core rate figured without including food and energy, was up a little less than expected. that's often a predictor of the future still, the producer prices were up get this, 10.8% in may compared with a year ago. >> fedex is delivering in a big way for investors today. the stock surging after the company increased its quarterly dividend to $1.10 per share from 75 cents that's a 53% increase. fedex also said it would air shareholder returns as an additional factor in determining executive compensation spiritairlines says it is talking with jetblue about jetblue's recently sweetened $3.4 billion takeover offer. spirit has been rebuffing jetblue's overtures while moving ahead with its plans to merge with the parent of frontier airlines

jetblue's most recent offer increased a break-up fee by $150 million to $350 million if a signed deal doesn't win regulatory clearance spirit says it will make a final decision by the end of the month. folks, back to you >> thanks very much. coming up next, beaten up tech names with a silver lining, as the nasdaq sits right around the flat line and the s&p a moment ago just barely takes out monday's low we're back in a few minutes. this is doubling production without doubling headcount. this is connecting all your team with a shared point of view. this is the system you built moving from concept to customer. this is how. airtable.

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mini-boss? a serene river voyage on an elegant viking longship. i need a good night sleep so get out. oh. fine, because you had a nightmare. oh really, you too? good night. yes, yes, yes. good night. good night! i just want to sleep. nasdaq's flat right about now, but the story of '22 has been the grind lower we're coming off a day where the index fell more than 4.5%, down 32% year to date, but with great pain might come opportunity. cnbc pro took a look at the stocks that had fallen the most that had the best prospects, and kristina partsinevelos has that story. >> i like how uuse that word

might. we know the nasdaq is in rough shape, and it fell for the fourth negative session in a row and closed below its 200-day and gift-day moving average. and only eight companies on the nasdaq 100 would be considered oversold or below true value this is according to their low relative strength index readings gilead, activision blizzard make the list, but few others do. despite the doom and gloom, there are some names to put on your radar cnbc pro pulled tech names that are down more than 20%, are expected to grow earnings per share by at least 20% this year, have positive free cash flow yields and are liked by wall street analysts with a more majority buy rating. so guess which companies dominated the list semi-conductors. st micro, nvidia, amd, and marvell all made the cut shares of nvidia have fallen more than 40% this year alone but is still a wall street darling. nearly 70% of an ls rated it a

buy. the company is expected to grow its earnings per share by more than 20%, and then amb and marvell, they have the highest free cash flow yield, so a higher yield is considered more attractive to investors. 81% of analysts right now have a buy rating on marvell, and other names to make the list, software maker datadog, liked by wall street, but its positive free cash flow yield was the lowest of the group, just above about 1 right now, and one we don't really talk about a lot, consulting firm accenture, it fights the criteria and has outperforming the s&p 500. look at that chart, past previous recessions like the great financial crisis carl >> that's a good setup, thank you. >> our next guest is pretty neutral on tech overall, looking for names with healthy balance sheets to weather the storm, but does predict the sector could be the first to bounce back if we end up seeing a recession. joining us this morning, head of

investment strategy megan shoe great to have you. you say a recession is quite possible, but the playbook, at least post-war period, has proven markets tend to bottom even as the economy continues to deteriorate. >> yeah, thanks for having me, carl so we're definitely, we raised our recession risks, still not part of our base case, actually, simp ly because we're starting from such a strong level to begin the year, but the risk of the fed tightening more aggressively is clearly front and center but if you look at historical recessions, we have had recessions where the drawdown is at or even less than what we have seen so far and if you are taking a financial crisis or a covid-style economic shutdown off the table, then i think something in the 20 to 25% drawdown range for the s&p 500 starts to get attractive and the playbook there is a bit

counterintuitive but the higher beta names small cap, technology tend to lead us out of the recession so it's time to start getting that list ready and maybe not jumping in just yet. this could take a little while to play out. we have a few more chapters to go, but it's an opportune time to start looking and legging in over the coming weeks. >> when you think about tech being one of the first sectors to bounce, are we talking consumer tech or enterprise tech or does it need to be that specific >> i would think enterprise tech so what we have seen is a really strong period for consumer facing tech. that was really related to the covid and post-covid period, extraordinary stimulus, healthy balance sheets and excess savings. i think going forward, i would be focused more on consumer tech we know the move to the cloud is still early innings so that is

one area where we think even if we get a pause in cap-x spending related to technology, i think that is going to resume as soon as companies start to feel a little more comfortable, again, that may take some time, but that's an area where we feel like we're talking about rather than demand destruction, a term that we use quite a bit these days, probably a delay in demand for enterprise technology. as the consumer is probably going to be hunkering down more, focusing on staples, energy, and food because those areas of the spending complex are still seeing extraordinary inflation >> meghan, read between the lines here you don't sound that neutral you sound kind of positive on the right tech names, and i just don't want investors who are longer term, not who are trying to trade this week and make money necessarily, but who are longer term, to miss it. it seems like you're saying you expect some of these names in semi-conductors perhaps like a

qualcomm, marvell, that were a lot higher a bit ago and were reporting upside earnings surprises when they were higher, that maybe they're worth considering. >> well, i think we're neutral i think we're definitely neutral, but the way i would put it is it's not the time to sell. it's time to think about buying and what you would want to be buying the time to sell was a while ago. and i think for our clients who are long-term investors, it's not going to do you much good to try to get out of the market in big form now maybe rotating out of some of those names that are not quite as attractive, but remember, when we're thinking about tech, there's been a rolling wave of bear markets, if you will, started with kind of an oversupply, concerns about oversupply and shortages in the semi-conductors. and then the reopening trade, which favored cyclicals and value over those stay-at-home tech names and then valuations got killed and we saw rates move

up earlier this year, and thou we're in recession fears we have already seen a lot of pessimism in the tech sector specifically, and if you look at valuations compared to history, the russell 1,000 growth which i know is not all tech, but has a lot of that influence, is trading at about the 65th percentile versus history. i think technology is such an integral part of businesses and the way we live our lives that that seems like a pretty good valuation starting point i wouldn't be wedded to valuations in this market because we know there could be some downside revisions to earnings estimates from analysts and we expect that but i would say the time to sell has passed and now it's time to be patient and think about how you want to be adding in the future >> really thoughtful framework for the kind of period, the crazy period that we're in, meghan good to talk to you. see you next time. >> thank you >> as tech markets have sold off, cathie wood feeling the pain more than most.

shorting her ark innovation fund while that's up more than 90% year to date while ark is down 60%. how does that work more on today's market action after the break. stay with us welcome to your world. your why. what drives you? what do you want to leave behind? what do you want to give back? what do you want to be remembered for? that's your why. it's your purpose, and we will work with you every step of the way to achieve it. at pnc private bank, we'll help you take care of the how. so tell us - what's your why? ♪♪ you're a one-man stitchwork master. but your staffing plan needs to go up a size. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

despite inflation hitting multi-decade highs, mastercard giving fodder to the bulls this morning. forecast u.s. retail sales will jump 7.5%.

this back-to-school shopping season despite, maybe because of higher prices. and saying e-commerce is going to grow. shares expected to pop more than 4% year over year, and a significant 19% since pre-pandemic summer sales back in 2019. that said, e-commerce names big and small have taken a hit this year shopify's down more than 70% etsy down more than 65%, amazon, the biggest laggard in faang, behind netflix, carl but hey, past performance no guarantee of future results. that kind of means something different in this context, right? >> exactly right and we got yet another sell on netflix today at a benchmark this time, jon, but it does seem like there's a bit of a piling on now, especially given so much we don't understand how the consumer will turn to streaming for entertainment if things get worse. when we come back, are the best days behind best buy b of a cuts the name to neutral. they forecast a possible reversion to pre-covid growth,

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reduces inflammation. don't touch my piano. kick pain in the aspercreme. we mentioned earlier gut check on one name hit hard by the tech selloff, that's netflix. benchmark rating after admitting to jumping the gun with upgrade to hold beginning of last year

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big tech regulation heating up as two massive bills with two very different outcomes face off on capitol hill.

ylan mui is here >> reporter: we are in washington today the raburn house office building the rooms behind me, lawmakers are debating a new bipartisan framework for privacy legislation that eluded congress for years. the new bill would only allow companies to collect data reasonably necessary, pro proportionate and limited. it would create a single national system with some carveouts for some states and tighten rules around kids. industry is generally on board with this, even though it is early. they would rather deal with one national law than 72 different privacy bills introduced or passed in 37 different states. right upstairs is acompletely different story. that's where a different group of bipartisan lawmakers is trying to drum up support for the antitrust bill david cicilline,and ken buff

cicilline says america is ready for congress to take action to reign in the abuse of power of big tech guys, there's not a lot of time between now and midterms, but clearly there's a big push to get one of the bills moving before we get to november. back to you. >> thanks. look forward to seeing what, if anything, happens there. through the month of june, we are celebrating pride month here is suze orman telling her story. >> suze orman here you probably know me as the money lady but did you know that 51 years ago when i was only 20, i told everybody that i was a lesbian i had the courage to stand in my truth and from that day on, everything in my life started to skyrocket. so don't be afraid to be who you are, don't be afraid to stand in urru and always do it with pride. take care.

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one more thing before we go. that's twitter employees are getting an all hands meeting with potential owner elon musk on thursday. the first time musk will speak

with twitter staff since launching his bid to take over the social media company back in april. maybe potentially positive side for the deal, the stock is up today about 3.25%. but still down 4.75 for the week >> indeed, fascinating to get some reports of what he tells employees at that meeting, john. overall, relatively muted session. might expect the market to be cautious in front of the fed decision it is remarkable in the last 72 hours, the notion of a 75 basis point hike is something that the market has priced in happened quickly. >> yeah. now we wonder how many 75 basis point hikes. what's the language around that and to what degree is the market excited about the fed getting ahead of things and getting more aggressive, even if that means the landing is a bit bumpier

>> now we're getting the narrative of job cuts picking up more steam headline on the wire, the compass, real estate company cutting 10% of work force through the housing slowdown faced with a situation where maybe unemployment softens in the face of ongoing rate hikes we'll find out tomorrow. meantime, the half starts. let's get to the judge >> carl, thanks so much. welcome to the halftime report scott wapner a little more than 24 hours from one of the most consequential fed decisions in decades we discuss and debate all that's at stake with the investment committee. brynn talking ton, steve weiss, and steve liesman is with us let's check the markets. we have the nasdaq positive, shy of 1 half of 1%. dow-jones is down 139, s&p in that bear market territory, 343