and we all saw the a-block seriously, we're running outet of time. basically his best ev play was general motors and ford. >> just to sum it up, it was about cash flow. gm and ford need to start buying back shares. cash flow. they need to buy back shares >> both were up higher earlier thanks so much for joining us. "the exchange" is now. thank you, scott a and welcome, everybody one day and one hour away. will it be 50 or 75 basis points what does the market want? we'll try to answer all these questions. as the price of oil keeps marching higher. $123 a barrel. how much higher can it go e? 150? 200. plus, the nasdaq is down 33% from its highs

33%. we've got the stocks that have been hit the hardest and our bottom fishing trader will tell us which ones to reel in and which to throw back. first, let's begin with bob and the very latest on these markets. >> very choppy, indeitterminate trading. we're essentially at the lows for the day. i want to show you stuff moving up and stuff struggling. good day for the transports. fedex kicked it off. 50% for them a 2% yield right now so, all the big industrials in the transports moving to the upside today elsewhere it's been a lot of struggle leisure and travel got killed in the last few days. they started up and then they just went straight down right after the open the stocks again having a tough down day this goes to the concept of peek travel markets figuring out what's

going to happen later in the year elsewhere, consumer staples. this is a group generally pretty expensive kwurm paired to the rest of the market and i think some of it is concerned about off-brand merchandising for some companies that are big issues out there. fairly expensive from a pe standpoint as treasury yields have been moving up, these interest-rate sensitive sectors. like utilities have a tough time coned, southern duke are down in the last few days. it's been a rough time one thing you don't want to be right now is a mortgage player some are having a tough time, some are down dramatically in the last four days invest co, mortgage-backed security and they've been down every single day for a number of days.

same thing with these bonds etfs so, there's a big high-yield corporate bond etf tough time in the last few days. and it's the biggest corporate bond etf down there. very tough time for are anything to compete with yield right now against treasuries back to you. >> bob, for now, thank you very much in just two trading days, wall street's narrative has shifted dramatically in terms of what they'llver to do to fight inflation. on friday, it was data core cpi came in much higher than expected. all hot. consumer sentiment hitting a record low as inflation expectations came at the highest readings since 1981. that afternoon, barclays and jeffreys ups the forecast to a 75 basis point rate hike

not just this year but this week so, the fallout continued. our own steve liesman reporting a three-quarter point rate hike is becoming more likely. the 10-year yield hitting the highest since 2011 the 210 curve inverting again. the nasdaq even worse. back to 2020 lows. the dow falling nearly 900 points the 10-year yield rising again as bill dudley tells the "wall street journal" that you could make an argument for a full point hike tomorrow. the clock ticks down to this big decision you can see the dow marginally lower. the nasdaq trying to hang on to a gain joining us is oour own steve liesman with the latest on the situation. the risk for markets and the economy. >> the question, kelly, i think is okay.

so, they're go ing to be 75 tomorrow the question is does it mean more down the road and the answer is yes, the market has picked that up. if you hook at what is priced in, in terms of 75 basis points. right now 90% probability around 75 basis points for june and july december, you're back down taa quarter. that's 275 basis points of tightening over the next -- how many months are left six months left to the year. you're going to quadruple the funds rate and lack out to next year. we now have a 4% funds rate for terminal rate, priced in for may of 2023. so, it's not just 25 what the market expectation now is that the fed will be doing more over time, not just more tomorrow >> and now there's also this

extra -- i guess they have to manage the risk of their own panic, triggering more panic amidst the public. they could give off that appearance now >> powell can step back and say hey, i told you. i said i wasn't thinking about 75 but i did tell you i was go ing to change my mind if the facts changed. and you laid that out. there were two inflation expectations reports that were pretty hot and so, the thing to look at here is take a look that two-year over the past year, which begins november when the fed pivoted. it's a little jerky up and done. but look at the tag in the end and then we can zoom in on the tag in the last couple of days

what you see is alert upwards. that's the kind of thing the fed wants to avoid the fed would rather see a gradual upward i guess my report added a bit to that as well over time and got a little back and it went back up today around 332 on the two-year the fed wants to bring forward future tightening. but it wants to control the process and has to be careful the process does not get away from him >> steve, for now, thank you our steve liesman reporting. let's turn to an expert fed watcher as they debate, not what the fed will do but whether the centralal bank is losing credibility. he putensh itally did not one or two of them now. what if the pivot isn't enough what can the fed to do show the

market they're in control of the the situation? the former chief economist at pimco. what do you think? >> first and foremost, i think steve did a really articulate job of laying out what's happened over the last three days, if you will. which is, in many respects, a pivot. the fed has two tools. the destination and the pace at which it gets there. is essentially it's using both tools right now in a surprise fashion. the increase in the destination is not a big surprise but the increase in the pace to 75 tomorrow is. i think eessentially, mr. powell is saying he's go ing to be nimble and do whatever it takes. he's made the decision to move faster down the road and the markets are responding

quite appropriately. and i would say he has a deal of credibility with the markets. >> but has he articulated whatever it takes at this point? the last talks about soft landing. wanting to see clear and convincing evidence inflation is coming down. but hey hasn't out right said our number one goal is bringing inflation down and here's what success lacks like here's what we want break evens to do. he hasn't been that explicit yet and is that what we're missing >> he hasn't been that explicit. but hey has from the standpoint of intent. clearly the data we got on friday as well as the consumer expectations data rattlead thema

bit. i'm surprised because thoseb numbers move about but the bottom line is where he is they are. and i think the press conference is going to be hugely important tomorrow because he's got to balance a trade bauf tween dispatch and satisfying the inflation hawks, at the same time keeping alive a credible prospect for a softish landing and making sure that the markets remain orderly and i would not consider trading the last few days, necessarily, orderly. so, i think he has a lot of work to do tomorrow at the press conference, assuming they do go to 75. >> fair enough but what you've said is the problem. if he talks about a soft landing or balance for all, that implies natflation is not the target

the only way to make clear that is their number one goal is to say we have the tools in place we've used them during covid and during the reapo crisis. we are not were aides about balance, per se. we are not worried about what the unemployment rate is going to be. we're going to solve this problem first no matter what it takes. that's what no matter what it takes means. >> i will modify whatever it takes then they still have a dual mandate and there's zero question getting inflation under control is their top priority. it's not their only priority and i think that's critically important at this juncture and that they naed to keep alive credible prospects for a soft landing. and they need to keep very much alive liquid, orderly markets. so, while i think he's laser

focussed, as president biden said, on inflation when the other two objectives do matter which is credible prospects of a softish landing and an orderly pattern to rating. if you're going to boil a frog, you need to keep him swimming in an orderly fashion, even as you turn up the temperature. >> you got me with the boil the frog analogy final question and this is a question come from a lot of professionals wha what's the biggest risk the fed is now running what contingent scenarios do corporate investors need to have in mind? >> i think the biggest risk in the short term, meaning the weeks and months immediately ahead is causing disruption and ill liquidity in the marketplace and having systemic risk creep over are i think it's a very serious

risk, particularly what's going on in crypto i think the biggest thing will be keeping markets orderly and keeping credible prospects for a softish landing as opposed to effectively feeding into the self-feeding notion we're going down the hole. >> been great to have you on thanks for sharing your perspective. be sure tatune in to power lunch a at the top of the hour we'll speak to j.p. morgan's chief u.s. economist why he thinks the fed could raise by 75 basis points, maybe 100. still ahead, a real-world recession or phantom sfwhun my next guest has halist of ones he's been watching and not buying >> and nasdaq closed below its

50 and 200-day moving averages now. woe will go bottom fishing dow's down only 85 points. helped by a strong day with fedex. s&p down barely two points the 10 year, 3.45% that's the far right of your screen there we're back in a moment ar (vo) some bonds last a lifetime. some bonds inspire confidence, and some you grow to rely on. these are the bonds worth investing in. for over 50 years, pimco has reinvented fixed income to create opportunities for investors in every market environment. so, no matter what happens you can build the bonds that mean the most to you. pimco, a global leader in active fixed income. with directv stream i can get live tv and on demand together: baseball, ghostbusters,

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welcome back to "the exchange." falling further into a bear market on concerns it will lead to a recession and hurt earnings the next guest says it will be a numerical one, not a real-world one. joining me is the chief market strategist at hennessy fund. great to have your advicing a week like this what do you mean by just a numerical recession? >> if you look at numerically, if the economy flows down two quarters in a row, technically we're in a recession but there's more to the numeric numbers than just that when you lack at the total picture. you have to lack at what else happens during a recession normally you have unemployment go up. we have is a problem hairing people right now, let alone

unemployment going up. you also see wages declining we have a hard time hiring people and what you can hire, you're paying higher wages at the same time you see companies get squeezed and go bankrupt kwou had the financial institutions getting squeezed and the financial am stugzs are so strong today. that yes, we could go einto what technically is a recession but you have to separate what the feds are doing, what the stock market'ses doing and what the real world or companies are doing. and company as -- go ahead, kelly. >> the difference too is we have such high nominal growth in the economy. we could have a 10% growth with 10% inflation. but my real question is this so, we might be in one in three or four quarters 18 months from now. for people who feel like it's

inevitable we're go tag get a hard landing out of this it's just a question of when can you still own stocks in the meantime >> absolutely. if you look at yesterday for instance, 98% of the stocks are down does that mean 98% of the companies are going broke or not making money or paying dividends? no the last time we saw something close to that, you weren't even born that was october of 1987 where over 99% went down in one day. if you separate what's happening out there and you can have really good companies that have low price to sales ratios. they have high earnings, dividends, the coverage for the dividends. and so, there's a lot of good, quality comp ans to be bought. now, does it make it scary for are somebody to go in and buy? yes. the reality is the market's not going broke. it just came down.

if people don't believe interest rates are up, please get out of the market but we've been saying that for years from zero to where they're all yielding what? 3.4% that's crazy >> this is a sequence of events you've been telling us is coming for the record, i might not have been paying attention tamacro but i was around in 1987 just in diapers. you have stocks. goodyear tire and rider system they've basically out performed. again, if you would say that the landscape has shifted in the direction you've told us it was going to shift, neal, what are the stocks -- what kind of returns should investors expect for the next little while? >> i think it goes back at the old philosophy we've had for a long time. it's time in the market, not timing the market. we've always used price to sales as a truer number than earnings

per share. when you can buy bj wholesale, which everybody knows more and more people gravitate to a walmart, bjs, sam's or whatever and you can buy it for 50 cents on the dollar. and earnings and they don't pay a dividend, they could start a dividend you could look at general tires had a hard time. if you look at what's happen igin the automobile industry and the amount of used cars out there. they need used tires and you're looking at something with a price to sales ratio of .2 and still doesn't pay a dividend or rider system that's done extremely well. they pay a dividend of $2.32 so, there's plenty to go and buy. but it's really patience are and what we're seeing now is the rutd in tech is continually going.

so, they say we're in bear territory, kelly the dow jones is only down 15% and only 15% of the dow jones in tech compared to fwaev% in the s&p 500 is in pure tech. and tech's getting killed. but the rest of the market seems to be in very good shape and good for a buying opportunity. >> there's the dow 30 and the hennessy picks and your self-selected index is trying to avoid those pot holes. we really appreciate it. neal hennessy with hennessy funds and a couple of ideas for this market. being is by far the worst dow stock this quarter and in the past 12 months now we have new numbers on the supply chain snarls. plus bitcoin dipping below 21,000 as the crypto collapse continues. now coin base racing to cut costs as they prepare for a

recession and a prolonged crypto winter here's a look at the dow lff e meinhereen right now. c and, g, coke and disney are the worst performers we're back after this. hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

welcome back we've got a news alert actually, several on housing let's get right to diana in washington >> compasses and red fin announced layoffs as the formerly red-hot housing market makes a sharp u-turn the averageerate on the 30-year fix jumping 10 more basis points to 6.28% a week ago, it was 5.5

rising rates have caused home sales to drop for six straight months that's why the layoffs red fin cutting 8% and posting in a blog we could be facing years, not months of fewer home sales and red fin still plans to thrive. if falling from $97 per share to $8 doesn't put a company through heck, i don't know what does and compasses announced it will layoff 10% of the corporate staff. a spokesperson saying due the clear signals of ecnaurmic growth, we've take measures to safeguard our costs and riri deucing the size of the employee team by approximately 10% and that equals 450 employees. not surprising in the layoffs but continues to get worse >> we started talking in crypto about the frost and now the layoffs. and now we're starting to see -- wouldn't you say this is the beginning of what could be more to come in housing >> absolutely.

you look at this from the real estate agencies. we know the bleeding in the mortgage market is getting worse with demand volume down 50% from a year ago you expect to see more pain in the mortgage and housing market for agents the question is how much goes into commercial real estate, etc. >> and the mortgage rate popped again. almost 6.3%. >> and it's shocking because a week ago we were at 5.5 and that's just an amazing jump for one week obviously, since the beginning of the year. we started at 3.29% on the 30-year fixed. it's astounding how quickly we've seen mortgage rates rise before in the past just not this quickly. >> it's the speed and magnitude, not just the level let's get to tyler mathisen for a cnbc news update >> welcome everybody to your cnbc update for this hour. a government advisory epanel

meeting to decide whether to recommend moderna's covid-19 vaccine for school-aged children and teens. they'll vote whether it's safe and effective enough tagive to kids 6 to 17 shep will discuss where things stand for vaccines between six months and five years. a third of the u.s. population is bracing for dampgerous, record-setting heat today. the national weather service issuing heat watches and advisories for portions of the midwest and south with large swaths of the country expecting to see triple digits and serena williams is returning to wimbledon this year the all-england club announced williams was awarded a wild card entry for singles. it will be her first tournament appearance since she retired in the 2021 wimbledon opener after suffering a hamstring injury good to see her back >> absolutely.

still ahead, down but loved. a look at stek stocks with the most buys. we have the stock wbz stats and strategies ahead and cnbc is celebrating pride month and featuring teammates and contributors here's army founder and ceo. >> making sure that people never feel alone is so incredibly important because it's something that, when you're growing up and you're in the closet or come out of the closet and you're not in an environment supportive of you, it can be really lonely i'm really proud of our community for being so inclusive and so warm to all of us because we all need each other at the end of the day i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

welcome back to "the exchange" everybody. three stocks down at least to 20% this year with positive free cash flow yields and analysts more than 20% from here we have the names, stats and strategies for each one of these.

let's start with marvell, trading around their 52-week lows here with the stats, we welcome christina and with our trades, cio and cnbc contributor kristina, what about marvell some. >> out of all the names that made this list i guess i could say wall street journal with over 80% of analysts rating it a buy this stock is down dramatically, down 44% but the company recently confirmed no slowdown in cloud-data centered demand and they have over 4%. it's a higher yooeld considered more attractive since more cash can be allocated to paying down debt and they have an average earnings to share growth of over 8% >> we turn to you. is it a name you think should be a buy here >> i think it is a buy she hit the nail on the head

very strong financial track rengered we've seen 32 consecutive quarters of sequential revenue growth that's fantastic to see. when you talk about the ownership of the name, it's institutionally owned. you lack at black rock despite the fact we're at new 52-week low, i think earnings are expected to grow while 45% year over year and the sales growth is awesome. so, you're seeing the darling she talked about being scooped up for a variety of reasons. >> and a lot of semiconductor names made this list speaks to the prices destruction we have here this was the chart we teased into the break it's down 20% in a week. what's the story here? >> down 20 but i'd like to point out that data dog managed analytic software. it has an over 50% average earnings per share growth.

it's not like marvell but over 55% list -- 65% listed it as a buy. fundamentals aren't slowing down revenue grew 80% year over year. i know there's a debate about this one >> sure and nothing new especially with some of the stocks we've seen this year. what do you like or not like about datadog? >> of the three stocks, this is the smallest capitalization. 27 billion market cap. but you really have seen over sold conditions, a high beta name in the last five days is jaw dropping i want to wait but don't take away from the fact that hedge funds are scooping we also have to think that this is a name, that when you talk about cloud and upside, there's a ton of data and rewarden the

other side to her point of 12 month trailing free cash flow, it's trading 98 times that's a big number and th inexpensebive. that valuation has been since its ipo in 2019. after a year of 160% and another 81% last year, it's coming down. 52% does take you down a ways. >> more of a wait and see story. let's talk about a totally different market segment with the consulting giant down more than 30% only 2% off its 52-week lows why does this jump out >> his is not trade oghon nasdaq, unlike the others. it specializes in it services and consulting they have a smaller than average, or compared to everyone else, 63% of analysts listed as a buy. but it's the free cash flow yield literally almost 5%.

an interesting tid bit in fiscal 2021 acsearcher reported that 98% of the top 100 clients have been partnered with accenture by more than ten years so, longer than my relationship. >> entering a relationship with accenture here >> i want to be a baer she's a beast. she dropped a lot of data here trading at 25 times forward pe ratio. it's not expensive and revealing value. it's been ranked number wung for its quality and has a new ceo. we're seeing new leadership. i get excited about it i know a lot of folks said this is a buy talk about it from a data perspective as well. >> let me pivot you from micro to macro for a second. we have a big fedcoming up tomorrow and a 10 year to keep climbbing this afternoon what daia say? >> as you know i cut my teeth in

the 10-year futures. i think it's interesting when we talk about speed it's the time rate at which an object is moving along at a path while velocity is an object pv movement no one anticipated the velocity of the fed indiana to the system we started often 2022. we're touching 3.5%. thalgs going to be critically important. i think they want to rip the ban dade off they have to ebe nimble. i know they only have two mandates the third is to make sure we don't go into a recession. i know he's been very hawkish and he's going to be haugsish tomorrow and that takes off the effect. so, i'm staying cautiously optimistic because velocity is the thing we're not appreciating are it's been so amazing to see this type of move inside six months

i've traded bonds my whole life and never seen anything like this from a velocity perspective. >> here's somebody who's tried to tell congress and the public he will be the next volker if he needs to be. that volker is the greatest public servient of the era is it because you don't think the data justifies him being a hawk or his personality? >> i think a combination we have hot inflation data we have tobate for june 30th to the pce. i'm going to call him a chicken hawk the misstep the fed made was last year or the last $2 trillion in the balance sheet. i go in that he's a chicken hawk and he has to really flap his hawkish wings right here he's a dove. >> jeff killburg thank you kristima as well bringing us our picks today.

session highs a moment ago this is pretty poetic. 3.456. looks like we ticked above that level. we're talking decade highs and it's the move since the start of the year 1.66% back in january. still ahead boeing shares are are down 40% this year down 52% from their highs and down 15% in just the week. inventory build up has been a head wind.

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with paycom, employees enter and manage their own hr data in a single, easy-to-use software. visit paycom.com and schedule a demo today. welcome back, everybody. shares of boeing are up 2 prer we have the may delivery mbs a short time ago phil >> kelly, these are lackluster numbers and it's been this way for are several months

let's look at the may numbers and what you see is yes, there are orders and deliveries. but these aren't great numbers the back log stands at just under 4200 the gradual ramp up is one area being is saying we're making progresserous, moving towards 31% month. they have an inventory, many ordered by chinese airlines. the chinese are not yet accepting the 737 maxes. and keep in mind that they have not delivered a 787 dreamliner in more than a year. this is an issue that continues to dog these guys as they work with the faa to come up with an inspection protocol that the faa says you're good to go now you can start delivering these planes they have more than 100 in inventory. you mention jet fuel prices. airlines are not calling back on their orders

but you have to wonder if the airline business slows down just a little bit, at least in the fall that's certainly weighing on the wide body business. and over the last couple of years. and we're showing you this because these guys usually trade in tandem. that has not been the case, really, for the last year and a half as being has moved lower. look at the delivery e that says it all. >> people are looking at shares of being and saying we can't give the same or endorsement that we do with air bus. while air bus has not exactly lit on fire, it's not to degree

boeing is. >> in boeing's defense, what's happened has been such a can cis pointment to everyone who thought the airline manufacturers would benefit tremendously and they haven't. is it just fuel prices because it's crazy >> for the it airline? >> we know the numbers are pretty high. we know people are back in the skies. and dwlet stocks are really under performing >> look at jet fuel prices that's the huge expense for the airline industry and that's why they're just getting ham aered right now. yes, they're having a spectacular summer relative tawhat they've gone through over the last couple of years and able to pass along much of the increase in jet fuel cost through higher ticket prices whaultsler -- what happens this fall airlines are expecting strong business will itby as strong as expected? and that's why you see shares of all the airlines under pressure. people are lacking around saying

if it ain't jet fuel prices, is it economy recession and i'm not expecting international travel to accelerate dramatically. >> some are only down 15 or 20%. we'll leave it there for now coming up, if you think oil, the 10-year and dollar are higher now, my next guest shows three charts that shows we could have a ways to geon each. a technical take on what could beahead is next. ar unexpected out-of-pocket costs. so if you're on medicare, or soon to be, consider this. an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan from unitedhealthcare. medicare alone doesn't pay for everything. and what it doesn't pay for, like deductibles and copays, could add up to thousands of dollars. medicare supplement plans help by paying some of what medicare doesn't... and making your out-of-pocket costs a lot more predictable. call unitedhealthcare now and ask

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welcome back to "the exchange." president biden announcing a trip to saudi arabia price of oil hit $123 earlier today. we're up 7% already this month and our next guest says this price could go as high as $175 a barrel technical strategist at bank of america. paul, what do you see? give us the bad news >> i see bullish price charts in oil. the big picture sory, which is

part of my pavrt part of technicals is getting to look at long-term trends and looking for secular changes. and a that's what we did in may of 2021. we called for an upside in oil prices and maybe $175 a barrel and we're marching that direction faster than expected but we're getting there. somehow, would that change the situation? i mean, i know you're a technical strategist we're talking about the charts and the patterns here, paul, but could that be an exogenous event? in d.c. they're talking about windfall taxes and things like that i don't know, what brings us down i don't know >> let's talk about price because price is what brings us down it's the mark of participants that bring us down the last piece of news out, kelly, that really matter to maybe bring down prices was, i believe july 1st when saudi arabia announced they could increase their supply of the market, increase the barrels of oil going into the market. what did oil prices do that day?

they went up, almost 5% off the low. they had a knee jerk selloff and rallied to close the high of the day. show me a news headline that is bearish oil where prices move bearishly lower. we haven't seen that yet, oil goes up on good news, oil goes up on bad news they just formed a bullish continuation pattern about seven trading days ago when it broke out above 115 lalongside that saudi news actually, and it's continuing higher. i think we see 140 this summer that's reasonable. could we get all the way to 175 already? can't rule that out. >> i have people all the time say we could spike to 200. they're not ruling that out. i just think that's a really interesting point about how it's trading on those kinds of days it's not just oil, and interestingly, you see the dollar going up further as well. normally strong dollar is a headwind for commodities it's incredible that oil is still this strong. it speaks to how tight real demand is. what are the dollar charts telling you? we seem to already be at

extremes here. >> we are. the dollar index or the dxy as people quote it broke out to new 20-year highs last month, and look, as a technician, you break out of a range consolidation to new highs like that, it's bullish, and the dollar, honestly, it's not even that overbought there's room for momentum to persist, and i think when we look back at the long-term charts of the dxy, there are multiple analogs to where the dollar was trading in a narrowing range like it was the last seven years breaks out to the upside and just continues to trend, so think, dxy at 105 right now, that's new 20-year highs what if it put on more points, it would be at 110 that would be euro probably at parity, maybe flirting with the great below. it's really bullish dollar korea because the dollar getting stronger here, it's a headwind for risk assets. oil pricing getting stronger here it's a headwind for risk assets.

>> yeah, everything you're describing the dollar has investors, corporate america, everyone just groaning and saying please not that okay, so finally let's talk about the ten-year kind of makes sense, yields on the dollar would rise together here we pierced through 345 just this afternoon. what's the next stop >> we did. so we view something called fibonacci extensions to estimate upside when there's a breakout to multiyear highs like ten-year treasury yields. some analysis shows the secular bull and bond market is over as the head and shoulder bottom pattern and ten-year form. just like it began, the secular bull market back in the '80s so really a big win for the technicians that the head and shoulders are controlling the bond market direction. aside from that, you know, pattern analysis, the next extension level creating a bear market like a bear is about 4% somewhere between 398 and 405 is

where a number of fibonacci ratios and targets line up. >> if we were to go lower, what would that take or what would that look like >> lower in yields you got to break out like this through 3 1/4, the fourth quarter 2018 yield highs was 3.25%. we're already at about 3.5 why don't we come back down and retest 3 1/4 if we do, you sell it and look for 4%. >> yeah, that's not exactly the downside i think people were looking for, 20 basis points paul, really appreciate it today, thanks for your time. >> thank you >> paul ciana with bank of america. still ahead, coinbase laying off almost a fifth of its work force amid a collapse in its stock and in crypto prices we've got the details and what that's telling us about the froth coming out of the market "the exchange" is back in two. don't go anywhere. with the help of magical technology. but what about today? ♪♪ i can't wait for what tomorrow will bring,

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hello. let's enjoy the ride... everybody here for the interview? okay. what do you drive? i ride a jet bike.

welcome back to "the exchange." before we go, let's look at coinbase, the company which has traded nearly in tandem with bitcoin having a wild session after announcing layoffs the shares are just fractionally lower around 52 right now as more signs of stress in this crypto market play out the shares down 80% year-to-date let's get to kate rooney with the latest. >> coinbase plans to lay off 18% of its work force. that nets out to about 1,100 people, ceo brian armstrong telling employees in an email, quote, we appear to be entering a recession after a ten-plus year economic boom the company grew too quickly, and coinbase needs to manage its burn rate and increase effi efficiency he also says it's clear that they, quote, over hired. i also sat down with coinbase chief operating officer, emily choi last week ahead of this news, she says it was difficult but a necessary decision and that coinbase has survived similar down turns before >> we have $6 billion of cash on

the balance sheet, and we've been through four crypto winters before we will power through any macro environment, any crypto winter, anything that's coming that's what we're made of. the reality, though, is that we have to adjust when we feel that there is a very dynamic economic environment in play, and so we're going to make those decisions based on those factors. >> coinbase had put a pause on hiring and then two weeks later extended that and rescinded some job offers going a step further. it comes amid a roughly 80% drop in coinbase's stock this year and a crash that we've seen in crypto prices. jpmorgan also downgrading coinbase this morning ahead of the news and slashing its price target analysts there called out a need for coinbase management to lower costs and some more downside with the stock if crypto markets don't stabilize. kelly. >> it's been a vicious negative feedback loop for the crypto space. thank you very much. our kate rooney reporting. speaking of crypto, we'll look

at why mike novograt says the fed can provide a bump to crypto that's coming up next on "power lunch," which begins right now welcome everybody to "power lunch. i'm tyler mathisen, welcome once again. here's what's ahead, the hawks are circling jpmorgan now calling for the fed to hike by 75 basis points, 3/4 of a percent tomorrow adding that the real surprise will be a 100 basis point, a full point. the economist behind that report is here, but bank of america's ethan harris who called for a more aggressive fed earlier this year says that 3/4 point hike won't happen tomorrow. he's also with us as we get set for tomorrow's big fed decision. kelly. >> looking very much forward to both of those discussions, tyler, thanks. hi, everybody, stocks little bit all over the place, mostly in a holding pattern ahead of tomorrow's fed decision at

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