yielding more. >> mortgage rates. >> 10-year still positive. the fed is trying to catch up. there's the 30-year fixed mortgage rate. 6.28% today. >> maybe it works on there no, doesn't, sorry thanks for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" right now. thank you, kelly and tyler stocks trading in a narrower range after yesterday's sell-off, but we are near session lows we've given up some early gains as we await tomorrow's big fed decision the most important hour of trading starts now welcome, everyone, to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen a few attempts to go positive today which would break a five-day losing streak but we've given up those gains the dow is down more than 200 points s&p 500 down three-quarters of 1% there's one sector that's positive in the s&p and that's technology, thanks in part to oracle better forecast, 30% cloud growth that's helping some of those

names right now. but you still have weakness pretty much across the board the worst performing sector is utilities, consumer staples and health care. nasdaq only down a quarter of 1% check out the chart of the day that would befedex, getting a huge boost on news of a dividend hike and new board members we'll talk mouch more about tha move also ahead, former kansas city fed president, thomas hoenig, joins us with his expectation for tomorrow's all-important rate hike decision he has been saying inflation is not transitory for a very long time. let's get straight to our top story, the fed's pivotal decision expectations are the fed would have to go even bigger this week yesterday's "wall street journal" report says that a 75 point hike is coming as soon as tomorrow

one of the economists that yesterday evening changed their forecasts and now expects 75 basis point hike tomorrow. why? >> because it's difficult to explain otherwise. if there wasn't a predecision made to go 75 basis points, it's difficult to explain why we were reading this article, because the guidance had been pretty clear for 50s. this was a significant change in tone i don't think that happens without a reason. >> so what do you think is going on inside the fed? do you think they're starting to panic about higher than expected inflation? >> well, i think they were rattled by friday's data, both the higher core cpi and headline cpi with unfavorable composition, because you've got rent and equivalent rent coming in high. there was a significant increase in the university of michigan 5 to 10-year inflation expectations number. that's a very important measure for them so i think that's the trigger. now, my own view is if you look

at the entire context and other data releases that we've gotten recently, the flat unemployment rate, the somewhat higher claims numbers, the weaker average hourly earnings number, i think i would put that into perspective. so to me it doesn't seem that as much as changed as this apparent leaking towards 75 basis points suggests. >> do you think this is going to be a mistake if that's what they do >> well, it was a surprising decision i think in the end it probably -- what matters more is what the end point is, what they're signaling about the path, what gets priced into financial markets. so from that perspective it doesn't matter a huge amount whether you do over the next few meetings, you raise by up with 50 basis points in two meetings or in three meetings i don't think that necessarily matters that much. but it was surprising. it is going to make it a little

bit harder to put significant weight on this kind of guidance given fomc press conferences in the future. >> i think you'll get questions about the communication strategy that was one reason it was surprising at the last meeting powell said explicitly we're not thinking about 75 right now that's not under consideration here they are the week of the fed meeting during a quiet period with some signals to "the journal" and others. our economics reporter also reported this last night, that 75 basis points is on the table. it does make you question that whole forward guidance strategy where they have gone above and beyond to be very transparent about what's coming next. >> yeah. they did give themselves an out and said it depends on the data and things could change. my own view again is that things haven't changed that dramatically if i look at the entire kind of body of recent data releases. >> and i asked you if the fed was going to make a mistake.

i do wonder if that's in the market now, the fact that this sets them up for a bigger policy error. they're tripling in a triple hike, in a bear market, in an economy that's starting to weaken how does that end? >> well, i do think you -- they have wanted to tighten financial conditions, so that's very clear. i think most of what's happened in 2022 so far in terms of where financial conditions have gone has been desired what's less clear, i think, is whether we're now overshooting in terms of the tightening and financial conditions and the terminal funds rate that is priced in the bond market. i would say probably was starting to. so i think at this point my best judgment is that probably we'd have a better chance for, you know, a soft landing or at least the softish landing that chair powell has talked about with financial conditions a little bit easier and an expectation of

a terminal rate that's a little bit less than 4%. >> but that's going the other way now. >> it's going the other way so we're in the process of probably over -- it's too early to tell because obviously financial conditions can shift we don't know where the tightening cycle goes. there are a lot of other drivers, but i think we're more at risk of tightening financial conditions too much at this point. >> do you think that a hundred basis point hike could be on the table. the market always looks to what's next, if we get 75 this time. >> at the july meeting >> yeah. >> i think it's pretty unlikely. i wouldn't expect it that said, we put in 75 for tomorrow and 75 for july as well if you're doing 75 at this meeting, then, you know, you get to 1.5 to 1.75 and then i think if they want to go to what they view as neutral, they might want to do that at the july meeting as opposed to going back to 50s.

then it really doesn't seem worth the trouble. so to me it seems more logical conditional on them doing 75, if that's actually right, that they do another 75 six weeks later. >> if they wanted to front load it, that would be the case finally, what's happening with your recession odds? they have to be going up if we're getting this amount of tightening. >> they are clearly going up if you were to get significantly more tightening from here, bad inflation news that drives more tightening of monetary policy and the financial conditions, that would drive it up and could make it the base case. at this point it's not the base case and again, these things can obviously shift relatively quickly. we've seen some very large moves. they could be unwound. but i do think that the risks to what the markets currently pricing is that the fed delivers less tightening ultimately not tomorrow, but cumulatively

the 4% -- because i think the 4% -- a 4% terminal funds rate seems to be something that is putting sort of undue pressure on financial conditions. and i do expect that inflation is going to come down in a slowing economy. i think there are some signs of improvement in areas like wage growth and also some of the supply chain measures. so, you know, we'll see. >> jan hatzius, thank you for coming by in person. chief economist at goldman sachs. coinbase becoming the latest crypto firm to announce big layoffs. last month dan dolov was asked his thoughts on the company's ramp-up in hiring at that point. do you remember what he said >> it feels like the final scene from thelma and louise where they're heading toward the cliff. >> not such a bad call

after the break, what the broader meltdown means for the fintech space and the economy. the dow down 279 information technology only sector green but about to go negative we'll be right back. (vo) while you may not be a pediatric surgeon volunteering your topiary talents at a children's hospital — your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to

know you, your passions, and the way you give back. so you can live your life. that's life well planned. (heartbeats)

introducing icy hot pro. ice works fast... to freeze your pain and your doubt. heat makes it last. so you'll never sit this one out. new icy hot pro with 2 max-strength pain relievers.

session lows right now we'redown 313 on the dow, so the losses continue to accelerate as we head into the final hour few attempts to go positive

earlier in the day, not going to happen fifth day in a row the longest losing streak since back in january. as far as the dow is concerned, it's actually the stalwarts, the consumer staples are the biggest drags. p & g, united health care. you've got some bright spots in technology microsoft, ibm, visa, apple, they are all positive. so is boeing after bullish comments from the ceo on airline demand. check out today's stealth mover, iac/interactive it was named the best small and midcap idea for the year they believe their portfolio of internet businesses at the moment trade at a discounti coinbase ceo brian armstrong warning of a crypto winter while announcing layoffs of 18% of the country's workforce. the economy appears to be headed for recession that could last

for an extended period the stock has been up and down today but has dropped 80% so far this year. with us is dan dolev dan, as we reminded everyone, you were warning people about the hiring spree coinbase had been on. what is happening there? how painful do you think the situation is right now >> i think it's a pretty big disaster, right? i saw that we called it the final scene from thelma and louise i think right now it's an episode of we crashed. so i think it's imploding. and what you're seeing right now is that downward spiral, which is they have got really tough choices. if they don't lay off people, then they're going to be losing a lot of money and are burning like a billion dollars a quarter in cash or more. if they lay off people, they haven't find new avenues to grow so they're really in a dilemma it's a very, very difficult

dilemma because competition is getting worse and worse and more fierce. >> so do you see this as just the beginning? >> 100%. i think we took down our numbers today. we slashed our estimates by the way, consensus is overshooting revenue by 30% this year and that's not even assuming the environment gets worse. that's just the run rate of where we are in remember, some of their competitors like ftx, et cetera, they haven't started a price war. if you start a price war and the consumer is inelastic, if the price war starts, they'll have to take down pricing which means things will get worse from here. so i think this is -- you know, this is not the end of the beginning, this is the beginning of the end. >> that's always been your thesis on the stock and why you've been neutral rated. it sounds like you should be at a sell based on the way you're talking about this name. my question is what if bitcoin stabilizes this stock has already been hit

80% for the year. >> correct what we haven't seen up until now, and we've been very critical of the name so what we haven't seen until now is really the pricing come under pressure even if bitcoin stabilizes, there might be a relief rally. and that's one of the reasons to probably be neutral on that name because it's very hard to predict, to answer your question but i think once you start getting into this price war and people starting to like lower pricing because it gets really tight on a competitive stance, i think that would be the next downward leg to the story. >> 80% from the highs, i should say. what about relative to the competitors? you shouldn't just pick on coinbase you've seen layoffs from a number of firms this last week, including robinhood. >> correct i think we've talked before. i've always thought robinhood is better positioned in this environment than coinbase. the reason for that is, remember, they already do not charge fees for trading and are more diversified they have equities, options.

so everyone -- you know, when this happens, everyone suffers but i think that there's degrees of pain. and i think robin hhood is bettr positioned they have already gone through layoffs. you look at some of the trends they published yesterday and they were okay they stabilized, the number of users stabilized, so things aren't as bad as the perception. i think coinbase is in real trouble right now. >> don dolev, thank you for joining us the stock has turned lower as the broader market has made new lows. give you a check on the markets. we're down 356 on the dow. remember, i said information technology was positive in the s&p? it has gone negative it's now down 0.2 of a percent so every sector is now lower utilities, staples and health care the biggest drags, but you've got every sector down and the nasdaq is now losing steam, down 0.6 of 1% this is what a bear market feels like. after the break, a top

biotech analyst breaks down that sector and whether he's recommending buying the dip in any of the names. later, former kansas city fed president thomas hoenig shares his expectations of tomorrow's meeting we'll go inside what a 75 basis point hike could actually look like we'll be right back. of the big , even when you're focused on what's happening right now. and thinkorswim® is right there with you. to help you become a smarter investor. with an innovative trading platform full of customizable tools. dedicated trade desk pros and a passionate trader community sharing strategies right on the platform. because we take trading as seriously as you do. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade

this is doubling production without doubling headcount. this is connecting all your team with a shared point of view. this is the system you built moving from concept to customer. this is how. airtable.

minions! assemble! ♪ you better lose yourself in the music, the moment ♪ ♪ you gotta own it ♪ ♪ you only get one shot ♪ it's a crucial day for moderna. fda advisers are meeting as we speak to discuss and vote on whether to recommend its coronavirus vaccine for children ages 6 through 17 years old. moderna may be up today, but so far this year it's down about 50%, getting hit along with pfizer and the entire health care and biotech sector. joining us now, michael yee from jeffries so pfizer is the only one that has approval for this age cohcoh cohort

where's the street on expectations of boosters for kids in both of these groups >> it's great to be here with you and good to see you, sara. there are wide expectations that the fda will move forward to finally approve a vaccine for this final age group and likely have this starting getting deployed over the next week or two. that's pretty expected obviously there's a lot of bigger debates going on in the vaccine space. >> how bullish are you on the idea of boosters clearly covid is not going away and we're all supposed to be getting boosters i'm not sure how many people actually are, and whether you think it's a big enough market to move the stock and profits. >> look, we just hosted the moderna ceo literally a couple of days ago. they are prepared to deploy the new omicron booster starting august/september they just made comments about that

and i think there's a wide debate, and we agree, about deploying them to countries but whether or not people are going to jab because they're two different things whether or not there's a winter surge and whether there's an urgency for people to actually get jabbed, sara, i think is a different thing. you spoke to it. i think people are feeling like although it's out there, the urgency and the seriousness of it has died down and so i think this is going to be a debate over the next 12 months. >> do you buy the stock? moderna is down 76% from the highs. clearly it's come a long way, but it's really acting like a growth stock in this higher special rate correction. >> i think that's spot on. we believe that high growth, high platform type of stocks, not only moderna but others are going to have a tough time in this risk-off environment. it's not just rising interest rates, i think bear market

territory and all the growth selling off, it's a tough place for biotech. so we're telling people to be defensive in the amgen, gilead cash flow stories. i'm moderna has a good story but it takes time to settle out and we need other revenue sources to get people back engaged. >> michael yee, thank you. we'll keep everybody posted on what we hear from the fda. up next, thomas hoenig on the odds of a 75 basis point hike by the fed tomorrow and whether that's enough to begin slowing inflation. we'll be right back.

let's get a check on the markets as investors brace for the big fed decision tomorrow. we've lost all the gains from earlier and have moved to session lows throughout this final hour, down 0.8 of a percent on the s&p the nasdaq, which had been outperforming and still is, and the dow down 260 points. technology did pop back into the green as far as the s&p is concerned. oracle is the leader there after a better forecast, a very strong cloud growth for that quarter. i would also point out what's happening in the bond market we're seeing another steep sell-off and treasuries with yields shooting higher the 10-year note yield at 3.50

these are huge moves just for context we were at 2.8 on the 10-year last week joining us now is former kansas city fed president thomas hoenig i have to give you credit because at the end of last year you said this is not transitory inflation. the fed should be more active. now they're making up for past mistakes what do you expect to happen tomorrow >> well, i suspect that they will stay with the 50 basis points i don't think they want to drive people into more of a panic situation, but you never know. there are hawks on there who might argue for that i think the thing that people are forgetting that quantitative tightening that is just beginning, and that really does pull a lot of liquidity out of the market and i think that is affecting that yield curve pretty significantly so the combination of doing 50 basis points tomorrow and then continuing with the quantitative tightening will be a major tightening policy and cause rates along that yield curve to go up and that's going to slow

the economy pretty assuredly over the next two or three months the real question for the fed will be in september, and i think it's a matter of if the unemployment numbers start to rise, whether they back off or not or keep the pressure on to bring inflation down >> so what's interesting is that after yesterday when we got this report from the journal and all sorts of other financial news organizations, including cnbc, signalling that this 75-basis point hike is on the table and the fed is considering it for tomorrow, all the economists changed their forecast we just talked to jan hatzius and wells fargo changed to 75. so is there a risk that the fed goes too much if it does go 75, or 50 as you say, with the quantitative tightening. then we get into potentially an uncomfortable spot where growth slows a lot and we still have very high levels of inflation or stagflation. that's the risk of that? >> there is a risk that you

would create rate run. and i think that could be -- could work against the fed so i think they need to stay firm on their policy everyone knows 50 basis points is certain, they know quantitative tightening. they know they need to stay tight. unemployment is going to rise. then they need to stay firm during the slow down if they go 75 and things go wrong and they have to back off of that, they're going to look confused or panicked and that would be unfortunate. >> so you think 75 tomorrow would be an all-out mistake? at this point the market is almost fully pricing that in. >> i understand that and it may -- in fact the fomc could do that, but i think it would be unwise. not that i don't think they should tighten, but they have set this plan out and they ought to stick to their plan rather than every time a new number comes out, they change their policy that's unproductive.

i think that's an error on their part if they do that. >> so it's true, the communication strategy, i think, this really comes into play because they have laid out the plan pretty clearly and this would represent a big change, even though they did leave some room for change when they said they were going to be data dependent and make sure that inflation rates start to come down i guess there's a question of the communication and then the question -- credibility there of are they credible in terms of their mandate fighting inflation. >> right they go 50 basis point and continue with quantitative tightening, they are committed to fighting inflation. the credibility on the inflation front will come later, when things really start to slow, whether they stick to the policy, keeping rates high enough that it does slow the economy. unemployment will rise you are going to risk a recession late this year or next year and you have to be able to

maintain your policy through that uncertainty and those bad pieces of news so that you do in fact bring inflation down. but going 75 now and backing off of that later would be, i think, counterproductive. so stick to the plan but don't back off when you start to see the economy slow, and it is slowing, as we can tell just by watching the numbers today. >> so how far down do you expect inflation to get, by the end of the year and into next year. a lot of this inflation is due to factors that they can't control, like what's happening in ukraine >> well, certainly the supply disruptions are real, but those are changes in relative prices you will have supply and demand interact and you will ration that off that will be temporary inflation. but the real long run factor in the inflation front is what the fed has done in the past and the fact that congress spent nearly

$6 trillion over the last two years. those things have to work their way through and the fed has to reduce the amount of money it's bringing into the economy if you're going to bring inflation down over a sustained period of time so it's going to come down, but slowly they may push it down more quickly if they create a very quick recession and very strong recession by going very quickly up but those -- those are risks they have to weigh but i think you really need to say this is the plan, 50 basis points, quantitative tightening. yes, rates are going up, the economy is going to slow and we are going to wade through this until we get inflation down below 4%. >> thomas hoenig, thank you for weighing in. >> thank you for having me. >> former kansas city fed president. appreciate it. we have recovered a little bit on the dow we're only down 170. s&p 500 only down half a percent.

appea and the nasdaq is about to go positive again another up and down session. we just saw the nasdaq 100 tip into the green right now again, strength in some of these cloud names off the oracle quarter but also the chinese sb internet names are doing really well today and there's actually a list today, unlike yesterday where it was just all red across the board. up next, the big picture on how the soaring dollar is becoming a big dneowr for wall street and corporate america, next ♪ ♪ well would you look at that? ♪ ♪ jerry, you've got to see this. seen it. trust me, after 15 walks it gets a little old. i really should be retired by now. wish i'd invested when i had the chance...

to the moon! [golf ball bounces off rover] unbelievable. ugh. [ding]

we're carvana we created a brand new way for you to sell your car go to carvana answer a few questions and our techno wizardry calculates your car's value and gives you a real offer in seconds we'll come to you pay you on the spot then pick up your car that's it at carvana

today's big picture, the u.s. dollar. it's the new bad weather in other words, it's corporate america's excuse du juor for

missing earnings the dollar has gained 10% and wo wiped out two decades of declines wall street is finally starting to take note benchmark downgrading netflix to sell citing dollar strength against the yen and euro remember, microsoft was the first major tech company to warn of the impact, cutting its revenue and profit outlook for the current quarter, citing the impact of foreign exchange rates. salesforce cut its outlook for the same reason. it's not just tech feeling the pain, stifel cut nike. the impact is far and wide morgan stanley strategists screened for the stocks most negatively correlated with a strong dollar. the top ten names include activision blizzard, quest diagnostics, paypal, clorox,

kimberly clark, a lot of consumer staple names. one problem, the dollar is still streng strengthening. meaning that headwind for earnings could be just the beginning until we see a lasting stabilization or weakening for the dollar, it could continue to be a big problem for stocks. as we speak, the dollar is up a little less than half a percent. it's particularly strong against the yen. watch that into the fed meeting tomorrow. crypto getting crushed again, as one ceo announces layoffs and warns of another looming crypto winter. that story, plus the board shakeup at fedex an whether it is time to close the reopening trade when we take you inside the market zone, next.

power e*trade gives you an award-winning mobile app with powerful, easy-to-use tools, and interactive charts to give you an edge. 24/7 support when you need it the most. plus, zero-dollar commissions for online u.s. listed stocks. [ding] get e*trade from morgan stanley and start trading today. never settle with power e*trade. it has powerful, easy-to-use tools to help you find opportunities, 24/7 support when you need answers, plus some of the lowest options in futures contract prices around. [ding] get e*trade from morgan stanley and start trading today.

we are now in the "closing bell" market zone. jason pride is here, plus brandon oglenski and kate rooney on crypto getting clobbered again. stocks are recovering here after hitting lows just this hour. the dow only down 122 points the s&p 500 only down a third. you've got a few sectors that have gone positive the last few moments. it's technology up three-quarters of a percent and energy, just popping into the green. utilities and staples are still the weakest links. the 10-year treasury note yield continues to shoot higher. this has been a big focal point into the fed meeting where there are growing expectations and this market is pricing in almost a 75 basis point hike at the meeting tomorrow, jason. so what is this market telling you about the fed?

is it going to be a buy the news opportunity if they go there is it a bigger shock if they do 50 basis points? how do you strategize? >> that's actually a tough question to answer because you're trying to judge sentiment reaction to a fed survey or a fed response, right? so 75 basis points is what they're pricing in i'll probably take a little different direction. what should they be doing? we've been arguing quite some time they should be erring on the side of tougher than markets expectations markets are expecting 70 basis points, deliver that 75. it's a little over that expectation and you'll have the marginal person a little bit caught offside on that. >> 71 basis points is what's expected to be precise i just wanted to share a tweet by bill akman. the fed has allowed inflation to get out of control equity and credit markets have therefore lost confidence in the fed. market confidence can be restored if the fet takes

aggressive action tomorrow until it is clear that inflation has been named 10 we get to the volcker comparison which a lot of people are making he says hopefully 5 to 6% on a terminal rate gets it done to bring inflation down is that something you agree with >> 5 to 6% is actually really high but i think that logic that's coming out will make some sense. i think there's still a lot of credibility behind the fed if you think about what they tried to do last year, they had to keep it loose to get us out of the pandemic. they kept it loose a little bit too long they got inflation higher than where they wanted to be. they enter this year and it was a year they have had to clamp down and they have had to clamp down throughout this year. that's why i think this market and economy is now kind of in shock to some degree trying to figure out, wait a second, how did we go from a mid-cycle economic expansion to roughly what feels very late cycle and may actually be on the precipice of a recession with at least

recessionary odds increasing because the fed may be in a corner where they have to take rates high enough that they cause a little bit of economic weakness to get the inflation weakness that they want. and they have to establish credibility in order to round trip this questioning of their credibility. they have to end it now. >> so we were just showing an intraday of the 10-year note yield. we're off the highs of the day the high of the yield coincides with the lows of the market today, so clearly stocks are really tlracking these higher rate moves we're just off the highs, 3.48 the dow is down more than 300. a boosted dividend and an agreement with an activist investor sending shares of fedex sharply higher today the company announcing a hike of its dividend of 53% to $1.15 while saying it has added two board members with a third on the way after negotiations with

d.e. shaw. let's bring in brandon how surprised were you by all of this, brandon? >> this has been a long time coming because we have been looking at fedex with roughly half the operating profitability of u.p.s they have a lot of duplicative assets we're not trying to be disparaging of mr. fred smith, the founder and ceo upwards of 51 years but he ran it like an entrepreneur, always risking on cap capital, we find it has half the profitability of their peer u.p.s. or the dhl network. so with a more focused board looking at financial returns, focused on cash flow, getting capex down, you could see significant upside in the shares of fedex. >> so you're a buyer on this news you think it can widen that gap.

half of the operating profitability relative to peers? >> that's right. we understand investors are very fearful to put multiples on things people are worried are we hiking 50 basis points,75, 100 basis points at the next meeting fedex has some structural cost issues when you look out in the street, there's going to be an express truck and a ground truck going to a lot of the same addresses so they have a lot of overlapping network costs that we think with a more focused board and new ceo, they can start to address some of these cost disparities. >> s&p 500 almost on the flat line fedex up almost 15%. brandon, thank you for joining us with abuy on fedex. the crypto carnage showing no signs of slowing down bitcoin falling below 23k. it's down over 25% the last week coinbase is trying to stage a comeback after announcing it will be laying off 18% of its full-time workforce. the ceo, brian armstrong,

warning a potential recession could lead to a crypto winter. let's bring in kate rooney kate, you've heard a lot probably about the crypto winter lately how are other companies in the space preparing? is it as bad as coinbase >> coinbase is not alone here. crypto.com laid off about 5% of its staff and rob enhood a month ago had 10% layoffs. the surprise for wall street was why didn'tcoinbase do this sooner cash burn has been a focus for analysts an it was a pretty drawn-out process. they started with a hiring pause and then a hiring freeze and extended that and then rescicind some job offers. i spoke to emily choi, the coo, and she told me they wish they could have done this sooner but the intention is this is a big enough reduction it's a one-time thing. she called it painful but necessary and also pointed to some of the macro backdrop here and what's happened in the past

month or so, jamie dimon's warning, inflation numbers and called this the prudent thing to do interesting that crypto is so closely tied to what's going on in the broader economy, not decoupling or trading at sort of a safe haven in times like this. there are others, though, who are keeping their foot on the gas. if you look at ftx, that company says it's going to keep hiring and fidelity has a pretty robust crypto unit. so it is actually a good time to pick up talent if companies can afford it. >> kate rooney kate, thank you. jason, how do you see the crypto crash affecting the broader stock market is one leading the other and do you think we're going to see more carnage there >> look, i think there's some flavor of one leading the other. we saw this in '99, 2000 to 2001 this has some flavors of that. you had the crypto boom, the technology growth boom, the

excess valuations nin that spac. now as it unwiends, you see lowr valuations for coinbase, for crypto assets and technology assets as those lower valuations come in, m & a slows down, technology spending slows down, their capital spending slows down, their hiring slows down. we've seen slow down in hirings by companies like tesla. that's probably something that will ripple through the economy, whether it's the same size and scale as before, i don't think this is a perfect mirror image of that. it's similar, but still has its own -- only its own flavors are a little different i'd say it seems like it's a combination of that one cycle, something that's similar to the '60s when inflation first started and something that also has some flavors of that '93, '94 where the fed is ramping up really quickly, going up to a point they may be too far in timing. >> 75 basis points if they go

for it tomorrow will be the biggest hike since 1994. >> it's almost greenspan-like. >> a lot of people say volcker but greenspan in '94 technology is working today for a change and oracle is one of the biggest winners after beating wall street's earnings estimates thanks to strong demand in its cloud business frank holland joins us oracle stock rallying. what could it mean for some of the other cloud names that have been under serious pressure this year >> investors are taking the 36% growth of oracle's infrastructure cloud business as a sign that much better days could be ahead, despite the growing interest rate pressure, the risingdollar oracle's cloud infrastructure biz competes with amazon, microsoft and google they have roughly three-quarters of the market. oracle more known for their legacy business. analysts say a boost to their business is a sign of expansion and continued transition to the cloud, not a sign of delay or

contraction when it comes to that trendi and if you're moving to the cloud, one thing you need is cybersecurity. we're watching those stocks today. as we mentioned the dollar, the strengthening dollar, up 10% this year. oracle citing a currency impact of 3 to 4% the fact that they were able to grow their business when they have so much business overseas, a very positive sign about those trends not only here in the united states but globally. >> frank holland, thank you. so is this, jason, a sign that maybe it's been overdone, what's happening with some of these cloud names? >> look, i'm not certain about the cloud names themselves, but kind of broadly speaking this sell-off, we have brought a lot of the excess valuations on the growth side, the technology side, even the crypto side back down to more normal valuations historically speaking we do have a tendency to pass through what is fair and something that undershoots to some degree on

the downside i wouldn't be surprised if we see something similar to that as we have in the past. basically people look over their shoulders and see what returns they have gotten from some of these assets performing poorly there will be an investor that doesn't like that and sells on the downside now we need to ask how far does the market decline go further and does this cause an economic event. i think that is very much still up in the air. investors are probably well deserved to find at least a modest amount of protection in portfolios as we go through this difficult period and figure out how far the fed is actually going to take this. >> the reopening trade officially dead. that is according to a new note from wells fargo the firm is bearish on the overall economy, saying investors should reid their portfolios of sickcyclicality. experts are not fully appreciating the u.s. consumer's exposure to the stock market

in this environment, wells fargo suggesting stocks with low volatility to hedge against a slowdown some of those names include verizon, lowe's, mcdonald's, coca-cola, and ibm and this notion, jason, that the opening, the reopening trade is over with cyclicals like airlines and hotels, which have held up actually a little bit better because the fundamentals right now are so strong. what do you think? >> look, i probably would argue that's a little bit of a late way to start talking about this. we went through the reopening and got the majority of the economy back up and running. it wasn't exactly the way it was before there were still some things left to do and there are some things left to do. at this point in time for the overall economic cycle, we think we're in the late cycle. the late cycle is one where you're at least close enough to economic potential, there's room to fall. you have valuations above average. you have a fed stepping in and raising rates to set off and try

to contain stwlinflation. one of two things can happen you can actually pass all the way to recession, which is going to be qualified by the fed overstepping how far it takes rate hikes, or you have a situation where they do just enough and it turns out to be the perfect scenario that they bring rates up enough that it slows down inflation down enough and you turn backwards and start a little bit of the later economic cycle we're erring on the side that the recessionary risks are going up, the higher inflationary prints are forcing the fed's hand the fed is having to come hard and i think that sets the term at least for the near term for the markets. we'll see if wells fargo ends up being right on this being an outright recession in terms of the reopening trade, i think it's more just about being late cycle and being nearer to a recession at some point in time in the future. >> so what dislocations do you see? which sector i know you can't talk individual

stocks do you think have been hit too hard given that you're not even in the recession camp yet? >> look, technology may be getting interesting at some point in time. we're not quite there yet. we're probably more in line with the idea of investing with the real assets that happen to be part of the cause of the problem, so maybe a little bit of the materials and energy. probably more importantly the thing that we think is the most interesting, longer term investment through this psych 'em is real estate real estate by far is less connected to the economic cycle. it happens to be attached to inflation and does well in this environment. money you pull out of the equity market to get more defensive, we think there's a sweet spot in two to five year investment income >> well, we are seeing real estate sell off with some of the staple sectors utilities, consumer staples and health care along with real estate are your worst performers right now. jason, very quickly, just short term, any signs that were washed out here on sentiment?

i don't know if we see all-out panic. the vix has started to move. is this a ripe opportunity to buy at least in the near term? >> we're getting close to it our index is showing a medium buy, it's not the strongest signal one of the new pieces is that about -- only about 60% of stocks are above their 200-day moving average at this point in time which is a pretty low reading for that measure an is what tripping that index up. but the problem is valuations are still sitting a little above fair value across the market sentiment gauges tends to less useful in calling an actual market bottom when you're above middle valuations, above fai value. until we get a little lower it's just going to be weaker signals. >> all right, jason, thank you for joining us for the market zone jason pride. as we head into the close, we have recovered a lot from the session lows which came in the final hour of trade. the dow was down more than 300

we're only down 150 so cutting those losses in half you've still got boeing, microsoft, veisa and apple as your leader. nasdaq goes positive just in the final moments up 0.2 of a percent. technology had been a standout performer all day long it looks like we got a positive close. nasdaq up 0.2 of 1%. that's it for me on "closing bell." into "overtime" with scott. >> all right, sara, thanks so much welcome to "overtime." you just heard the bells, we're just getting started in just a little bit i'll speak to well-known investor eric jackson about the meltdown in high growth stocks some of the same ones he was recently buying. lots to discuss there. we begin with our talk of the tape the thing everyone is thinking about, what will happen less than 24 hours from now at the fed meeting. most importantly, how will markets react to what jay powell does and