insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance. it is 5 a.m. at the federal reserve. top five on 5. can they do anything about inflation without sinking the entire american economy? this as the global bond market also getting rocked. now the european central bank is holding an emergency meeting to talk about it. jpmorgan's joyce change is here to weigh in. on wall street, futures are higher for now as stocks continue to sink deeper into a bear market. real problems in real estate mortgage rates at their highest level in 20 years with no sign

of slowing down any time soon. later, why i told you so, not enough for sec chief gary genzer talking about the crypto crash. it is all happening on this wednesday, june 15th, and this is "worldwide exchange." well, good morning, good afternoon or good evening. welcome from wherever in the world you are watching i am brian sullivan. great to be back with you folks. we know there are a lot of tough head leans to hear out there we promise the sun will come up today, that's a promise. actually, futures, they are also up right now not a whole bunch but there is some green on your screen. futures higher across the board. dow futures up just over 100 points all of this coming though on another down day for most stocks the s&p 500 falling deeper into bear markets losing nearly half

a percent and closing at its lowest level since january 29th, 2021 your scorecard the dow is now off more than 17% from the recent high the s&p 500 is 22.5% there ease your bear market. the nasdaq off more than 33% it's been in a bear market for a while and continues to fall. the dow not quite there. bonds really have been the bigger problem kind of under the hood rocking everything right now the 10-year yield at 3.42% their decision on rates will come at 2 p.m. eastern time. that's when ""power lunch" starts you cannot miss that fairly steady at 119 and change per barrel the bigger story is natural gas

actually falling that's after freeport l&g said the facility that caught fire will likely not be up and running for 90 days. inventories may be building and prices are coming down here. it will hit natural gas prices because they use that facility to export primarily to europe. right now we're seeing the trade in europe for natural gas prices is back above 100 bucks. natural gas prices higher there all, by the way, as a heat wave gets set to hit much of europe that is not the news they need to hear now. turning now to the crypto markets. no reprieve just yet bitcoin, ether, all the major coins, they continue to drop we'll have more on that story throughout the morning and day on cnbc. around the world and sharon overnight, we saw japan down and the bigger developing story happens to be in europe. announcing a previously

unscheduled meeting to talk about recent market volatility with a strong focus on that. the bond market is even sovereign, meaning government bonds. that's a big deal. we're going to have to wait to hear more from headlines from that emergency meeting and if anything was decided maybe that is putting a bid under equities because all the major averages, they are higher across the board conversation about the bond market route really a big story. all right. our top story here of course is the fed's big decision today, and growing likelihood of a 75 basis point or 3/4 of 1% rate hike all of that coming as stocks sell off in a big way. keith lerner at truist advisory

says the s&p has fallen more than 9%. the end of the global financial crisis, we have seen drops like that only three other times. three times in 13 years. wow. and here's another big number, maybe some guidance for you. with that drop the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average, above, is now below 5% for only the ninth time since 1990, okay so the bad news, when that's happened the s&p 500 was higher. a month sooner, it's falling quickly. one year later the s&p 500 was higher every time. an average gain of 23% of course, history does not always repeat itself maybe there are brighter days out there. let's talk more about all of this with patrick rosetti. patrick, we're trying to find a

little glimmer of light in what has been a cloudy stock market when we see these declines, at least according to truist, we see stocks higher a year later doesn't mean it's going to happen what are you telling clients right now? >> what i'm telling them is, first, fed's dominating all of the crimes they have a balancing act to perform. with the debt to gdp above 120%. they want to project or feel like they're staying ahead of inflation. when you have debt to gdp ratio that high, they have a balancing act to perform so when i talk to clients, we came into this year, you know, being dye fence sieve

stocks we've owned energy when it was unpopular to do so we stayed in a position with cash the fixed income side being short in duration. you want to look at where is the opportunity. >> there are definitely things popping up every single day. a lot of stocks are below. the russell half, there are some opportunities beginning to pop up in different areas. >> okay. where are some of those areas, patrick? >> sure. sure so let's start with. -- if i look at an area that's a little more cyclical, basic materials materials. it's heavy rock. you don't want to ship it around too far but it has a variable cost structure

it makes it ideal for another simple market. stle vishl makes it be a reasonable valuation. >> even if we don't get the build back better program, hopefully will be some long grer direction. outside of vulcan, i would imagine is your advice right now, correct >> yes >> is there anything ellsworth buying not just worth owning but worth buying >> yeah. well, so outside of that, you know, i think if you start to see -- you know, on these -- on these short-term corrections, down 9% in a couple of days, if you don't own any of these sec torsion, if you are not involved in health care, if you're not

involved in these current cash flowing consumer patterns. alsoly rotation on the market and they continue to drop like a falling knife. cryptocurrency is something i would avoid for the time being >> you would you're not telling people like -- these things are getting wiped out here you're not telling people, go in, take a chance on these >> no. michael sailor at micro strategy -- >> micro strategy, yeah. >> i had recently seen that they begin to get -- the company reported a low level and we're

below it and we'll see what happens in the coming few days there. >> all right patrick rosetti, good advice there. we are watching vulcan materials. lifl long and prosper. see what i did there, patrick. thank you very much. when we come back, a "worldwide exchange" exclusive, michael arati. the call for a 675 point freight -- rate hike you can't afford to go anywhere. grab another cup of coffee we're back on "worldwide exchange" right after this

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welcome back let's get some of this morning's top corporate stories. what's happening out there pippa stevens is here with those. good morning >> reporter: good morning, brian. first up apple store employees will begin voting to unionize today coming after a store in atlanta canceled plans to vote alleging without many specifics apple medaled in the process

before that happened they announced it was raising pay for retail workers around the world and adjusting the scheduling policy they now start at $22 an hour. among the highest in retail. mortgage rates are on fire 30 year jumping to 6.2%. the rising rates, mortgage demand continues to plummet and home sales are down six months running, according to the national association of realtors and advisers to the fda unanimously recommending that the agency authorize moderna's covid-19 vaccine for children and teens age 6 to 17. the committee of outside experts is scheduled today to consider the moderna shot for children under 6 and the pfizer biontech vaccine for children under 5 in both cases as young as 6 months welcome news there for parents, brian. back to you. >> yeah, maybe some nerves too a lot of debate about this

pippa stevens, thank you very much. on deck, tracking the crypto crash as some firms now start to move into survival mode. ckitth rhtftatig aer this because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want —your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip network. from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities.™

only at vanguard you're more than just an investor you're an owner. that means that your priorities are ours too. our interactive tools and advice can help you build a future for the ones you love. that's the value of ownership. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." seeing some green across the screen up 162, the dow jones. little comfort, we know, but we

are at least not seeing some of the selling for now follow through. in the oil market, we are seeing crude down just a touch 117 and change still very high. crypto market which has been absolutely flattened in the last couple of days and weeks we are seeing losses across the board right now. maybe a lot of cash raising going on bitcoin is down again. in fact, ether is down double digit percentages. no respite today, at least for right now in the crypto market your morning rbi is back and today let's get random but interesting on something we all have in common that is electricity. we all use it. most of us probably have to buy it from a power company. get ready to pay more, maybe a lot more of course, all winter we talked about what was happening up in boston and new england, their power costs surging. now it is happening in the midwest. electricity prices there are beginning to soar. look at this market chart tuesday for the mid continent

grid operator. shows live electricity prices. it's a little bit hard to read much of the areas prices are over $100 per megawatt hour. what they call real time lmp, location nal marginal pricing if you're interested. they change every five minutes that is a snapshot of a period yesterday afternoon. all right. so you're saying, well, what does all of those numbers mean let's compare that with a longer term monthly average this is from their april 2022 report the latest one we have you can see real time pricing averaged $60 per megawatt hour and that was actually double the price of the previous year, which was also well above the price from 2020. all right. we know it's a lot of numbers. it's a complicated topic, especially at, what, 5:20 in the morning. so let's put it a different way.

prices for electricity were above 100 bucks per megawatt hour in many areas of illinois and indiana. last june the average was $33. which means on tuesday real time electricity costs were 200% higher than one year ago 200% now much of that, not all, but much is going to go into your bill if you live in some of those areas. in some cases power companies are warning of 50% jumps in your bill if this continues so why is it happening it's pretty simple two reasons. number one, it's been hot across the midwest, really hot for days and power is soaring two, high cost of natural gas along with the closure prematurely of coal plants has caused shortages there's nothing to counter the loss of coal power

it's electricity economics 101 higher demand, lower supply equals higher prices so millions of families already dealing with crippling inflation elsewhere are probably going to get another big shock in their bill when it comes next month and they, once again, have to hope for good weather of any kind to get any kind of price break. as we know, hope is not a strategy but maybe sending some to school to discover how this works. just a thought random but interesting stay safe. there's power down in columbus, ohio and the midwest it will be another 100 degree days be careful, folks. asset managers from around the world gathering in berlin for the largest private equity summit in the world. it's called the super return -- not just a good return, the super return international attendees not facing any shortages of topics to talk

about with all the wild swings in the markets they continue to face as well, by the way, as a federal reserve decision today leslie picker is there live in berlin speaking with some of the biggest names in the business and joins us now with her first guest. leslie, good to see you. >> reporter: hey, brian. good to see you. yeah, fun fact, actually, berlin, its mascot is actually a bear i don't know how many bears are actually walking among the conference today, but we're going to check in with one of the big investors, michael arangetti. thank you for joining us you have private equity, real assets private credit you span a variety of different asset classes. >> indeed. >> i want to get your take on the macro situation. how are you factoring in things like inflation, rate increases, the fed decision into your various modeling with how you want to deploy capital. >> there's a lot to think about. we invest in over 3,000

companies across the globe in lots of different industries the impact is different depending where we are the good news about ares is we get to play for the long term. we don't have to react to the day-to-day headlines generally given the turns, rate hikes, geopolitical instability, we have a generally cautious tone we are deploying into the market but generally taking our time. >> reporter: what are you seeing on the ground, especially with the near private equity portfolio? are you seeing the inflation in ways that haven't yet been reflected in public company earnings reports that we've seen so far. >> the answer is not yet that's what makes investing in this environment so challenging. we have the benefit of seeing monthly financial statements from all of these companies. if you look in the rear-view mirror, the fundamentals are real strong.

all of the anxiety and worry is forward looking as to what's the future earnings picture and obviously that has to get factored into the valuation given that multiples are coming down it's challenging everything you see historically is the market is better. >> reporter: the market investor would have a quarterly view. in terms of things like supply chain challenges, labor challenges, are you seeing that inflection point that makes you think that perhaps in the next month or two or three we can see this. >> we've seen the wage inflation. not every company, but most companies are dealing with wage inflation and some supply chain issues i think the hope would be maybe with china and broader asia pacific opening we see some relief on the supply side. obviously with fed moves we're

seeing some demand and get some stability. absolutely the inflation is starting to show up. >> in terms of a buying opportunity, private equity is being notorious for valuing investors. sitting on cash waiting for the right time volatility isn't necessarily the best time to be buying when do you expect to see that >> we're celebrating our 25th anniversary this year. we've seen a lot of cycles the playbook is you leg into the cycle. most of the good value now is in the public markets even though we're largely private market investors, we're seeing better value in public sectors. mu sense my sense is the back

half will get interesting. >> reporter: what are you seeing on that side of things with the private aum? it's been seen as this haven, so to speak, the broader market volatility because you do offer float in rate. is that market holding up as well as people are expecting >> absolutely. the same comment as private equity portfolios. the same for private credit. unlike past cycles we're going into this with an incredible amount of stability within the existing credit exposure floating rate interest, high seniority. short duration it's an asset class that is almost purpose built for this type of environment. slower growth, rising rate i would expect to continue to see people shifting out of traditional fixed income investments into floating rate private credit. >> demand also >> yeah, has not stopped >> we'll keep going. that means we will have to have you back on again to get your

updated take. >> absolutely. >> thank you so much brian, i'll send it back to you. >> leslie, it's great to see people back at conferences great to see you and the hours, you must admit, leslie, much more humane over there for "worldwide exchange. yes or no? >> no jet lag because i'm already used to being up for your show, brian so it's, you know, no sweat. >> that's it we always say i work european time leslie picker, you do too. thank you. all right, ahead, can the federal reserve thread the needle and squash inflation without crushing the american economy? rbc's tom porcelli joyce change is here with some of their best investment ideas now. by the way, just a gentle nudge if you haven't already, follow

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of its own ahead of the decision, future looking at gains market is trying to break a five-day losing streak joyce change laying out how fast and furious she thinks the fed may act. and the collapse in crypto giving the sec more time to regulate the industry, but what exactly would they do? it is wednesday, june 15th this is "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc welcome back, everybody. i am brian sullivan. it is exactly 5:30 on the nose thanks for joining us. here's the markets and the money. it's been a while. dow futures, they are higher across the board for nasdaq and s&p as well dow up 101 nasdaq up 85 the reality is don't expect the stock market to move that much ahead of the fed we had our big move monday, that

was the flush. yesterday we saw the markets come down a little hey, it is wall street you never know like i said, the markets did fall yesterday with those losses we are seeing stocks fall deeper into bear markets. we'll get more on that in a minute the developing story, the european central bank announcing a surprise meeting this morning. all having to do with the bond market particularly we're seeing some bonds get sold off apparently some central bankers in europe getting nervous about it julianna tattlebaum is in our studios. is it an emergency meeting what do we know about this >> reporter: brian, the european central bank has not used the term emergency meeting an ad hoc meeting wouldn't be called if there wasn't some kind

of urgency to the matter you talked about the rise in bond yields. many ecb watchers think this is going to be central to today's meeting. the european central bank announced an ad hoc gathering to discuss what they are calling current market conditions. we are seeing a positive reaction in european equities this morning in particular, we're seeing strength in the italian market that is because we are seeing italian banks performing well. we're also seeing a strong reaction in fixed income markets. italy, once again front and center the focus for today's ecb meeting according to experts who watch this space are going to be a potential tool to counter disorderly action in bond markets in some of the weaker eurozone markets what they call fragmentation when they raise interest rates it may have an outsized interest

rate like italy and spain and others. here we are, the italian 10-year. trading at 4.04% we have seen peripheral spreads. the spread in particular between the italian 10-year and the german 10-year the german bund trading around 1.73%. this is what you want to watch around this meeting, brian. >> this is a big deal. they can placate the language all they want. italy, 10-year bond yields are at 4.1%. they were .5%. government debt have jumped 625% in a year. let's call this whatthis is. this is an emergency meeting because countries are nervous. julianna tatelbaum, thank you very much. appreciate it. let's bring it back here the markets have been in a precarious position as well. stocks, bonds, credit currency

all showing tension. that's a nice word, tension. traders pricing in a 98% chance of a 75% basis hike. that's 3/4 of 1% that's according to the cme fed watch tool and a 96% chance of a similar move in july they see a 66% chance had i r they will return if we got all of that, that would take it from 275 to the current level at .75 and 1%. a lot of numbers what does it mean? let's bring in tom porcelli. i'm willing to bet most viewers don't care what the fed does only inasmuch as what it does that affects their life, mortgage rates, credit card rates, auto loans. so i'm just wondering, if the fed is going to 2.75 or 3%, how much is already priced into our

bond market and the interest rates that our viewers pay for stuff? >> hey, brian. so i think quite a bit of that is price data. the market is looking for funds going up to 4% yeah, i think that the -- the fed hinting to the journal a couple of days ago has sort of done the trick terminal funds as defined by the market have now issued as a result yeah, it is. i think most of it is priced in at this point. that would seem to be a little bit of good news >> good newsness that i guess the market is priced for it. what we have to know is it's pretty well in restricted territory. i don't know how much good news is there many are concerned that this is

going to be recessionary speaking with some of our he can witt if i investors. for the most part, they want the clearing event they want to get to the point where they know exactly what was going to happen. some rough estimate of what was going to happen. i think the people are okay with this approach. i think just in the context of trying to get clarity but, again, make no mistake, most people we speak to, we agree, you know, recession is probably upon us. >> do you think it's here now and we just don't know you never know until you look back and say, oh, things slowed down we had negative gdp prints as well, tom. we've got one, despite what we're seeing with our eyes, full

restaurants, full hotels, full planes, that the slowdown and bookings may already be upon us. i don't doubt for a second soemp people fly not by aggregate but by the sector. i don't doubt that it probably feels that way for some people unfortunately. in the aggregate, no i don't think a recession is here right now i think it will start to feel that way sort of more broadly later this year. i wouldn't be surprised if we see outright job losses later this year. i think that that again -- i think for me, that's probably the clearing event because once you get to the point of, you know, sort of real squishiness from an economic backdrop

perspective and sort of an acknowledgment of recession and cover. >> we're already talking about future rate cuts, tom, future cuts next year. >> i think you have to given the aggressiveness >> would you have, and i guess if you think lower rights rates mean longer term i can't believe we're already talking about cuts there you go tom porcelli on the tape bringing it. thank you very much, have a great day. >> thanks so much. coming up on "worldwide exchange," the growing ripple impact of crypto's big-time selloff, more regulation calls the firms lawing up.

first we head to break jana partners, the wall street partners says the pair are discussing, quote, a truce following jana's call for changing that. could include them stepping down. atlanta's mayor calling for restrict tors of invefrsors buying up things in the city as major companies continue to move tear on perfect raping as part of his net worth ariee up of more more than 14 go od on him. "worldwide exchange" is back after this

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all right. welcome back topsy-turvy week mostly turvy, less tops y. mcdonald's the only dow stock up mcdonald's up. pretty much everything else has been down. now to the ongoing selloff in crypto leading one regulator to call for more action from the federal government around the digital assets

pippa stevens here with more what are they looking to do? >> sec chairman gary gensler says this has highlighted the rules around the assets to better protect the investors he cited his agency's action against this the chairman added the sec is in talks with roughly six platforms to register with it. the price of bitcoin is down more than 30% so far this month while ether is down more than 40%. they are hiring restructuring attorneys. according to the loentder, they are looking at restructuring it comes as celsius planned

more meek crow strategy is denying against the beth coin bat lone that follows cnbc yesterday that investors have expressed concerns that the soft wear company which has bet $4 billion on bitcoin would be forced to eliminate some of those crypto coins if faced with it they did not respond to a cnbc request for a comment on its report brian? >> again, that stock has gotten pounded a wrong crypto as well pippa stevens, thank you very much. on deck, j.p. morgan chase's joyce change is standing by as we gear up for the fed's big decision what she sees the central bank doing. whether it's going to be enough to quash inflation without suffering the economy. here's our colleague

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the price of crude oil natural gas, by the way, has come down the last couple of days big outage at freeport texas not able to produce and export over the next 90 days something to watch it is going to be a huge day. at 8:30 a.m., you get the retail numbers that is expected to show a slight uptick you get the empire manufacturing survey for june. those are just the appetizers. your entry, the big fed decision at 2 p.m 3/4 of a percent or what's known as 75 basis points is the expected rate hike also, keeping an eye on the supreme court. they continue to roll out their decisions on a number of high profile cases. it will start around 10:00 this morning.

the supreme court ield with will big news napping our roop. it mr. hold a meeting today particularly talking about the side p-- seismic jump. joining us with perspective, joyce change joyce, great to have you back on your expectation for the federal reserve today. >> 75 basis points and it's not over there we see two 50 basis pints upping down until you get funds at quarter payment, after perts

and here they really need to move into hood mod know much just given where inflation has been trending. >> do you think most of that move and does your bond team, joyce, believe most of that move is priced into bonds the reason i ask is the same question i asked tom porcelli here, if they think oh, the footd fod, the borrowing of ourts our drts -- their costs. >> there's a lot that's priced in that's neutral duration you're going to be in the situation of over shoots in part because the market liquidity is really poor right now. we're seeing this across the major markets. it's not march 2020 for the

market liquidity at the apex of the pech dem mick by moving into moderately restricted temporary. as far as getting inflation, i don't think these fears are going too long away. >> no. by the joosh we talked about italian government debt. you've got an early takeon tha meeting? unscheduled meetings for central banks not really ever looked at positively >> yeah. i mean, look, the ecb hawkishness is catching up with the fed. the ecb has taken up its inflation projections notability

of this. the speed is prompting the emergency meeting. there are persons whose have not moved yet. it is what is the right pace we have been looking at 1 rour ufrm that. it's where inflation is printed. it's running ahead of the guidance out there as we look across the developed markets, we see more hiking ahead from brazil. 50 basis points. >> what's somewhat i guess disconcerting would be the nice w word, joyce, all of this inflation is happening as china remains under not necessarily lockdown but close china eastern was down 80% year

over year. what's going to happen with global commodities the some slumped we're still talking about how the ban on oil will be implemented in europe in addition to the reopening, the peak driving season, you know, as well. we're looking at glass probably going to 6.23%. it's hiking many parts of the world. >> and sadly likely to get worse as well. i don't even know if electricity

inflation is priced into that. let's go back to what you said $6.20 a gallon nationally nally. if that's the flas -- >> we've moved past $5 a lot of what is perfected in that forecast are the constraints on that. it's not so much the move in brandt brandt that's going to play out there's a period in august where you have forward marketly fit -- market liquidity. >> 1 lun m-- utility costs are

going up you just mentioned gasoline going up, $150 to fill up a 22-gallon gas nanks -- >> it's the extras that's been accumulated. there is still a buffer right now. one thing that's been surprising is the resilience we've seen at the household and corporate level. by the end of the year you'll get backlog. and that has supported the consumer spending and that disconnect between what we've seen in consumer spending and consumer confidence facebook gee

fleeft -- >> joyce change, $6.20 a gallon by august. have a great day thank you very much. >> thanks. that does it for us on world wide exchange. bye-bye. we'll be back here tomorrow. a big fet needing on

. good morning welcome to fed day it's coming whether you want it or not jay powell and others are

considering a rate hike of .75 basis points to tame inflation the ecb calling an emergency meeting to address, in its words, market conditions we'll tell you what to expect. the crypto carnage is getting worse. bitcoin now below $21,000 as firms that hold crypto look to reassure the markets it's wednesday, june 15th, 2022. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe concern than andrew is off today. take a look at the u.s. equity futures. waking up waiting to see what's been happening with this green arrows right now dow futures up by 185 points