got rate structures, the 10-year, the 5-year, and the 2-year yields are above their average yield. i'm not sure they have to go a lot higher if they don't, then i think a fundamental -- stay the course >> thank you from your lips we're out of time today. join us tomorrow it's time for "squawk on the street." good wednesday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with paula creamer and david faber live at post 9 of the new york stock exchange fed day, futures benefit from a small drop in yields especially after import prices ex fuel show the first decline since 2020 and retailers down decision day for the fed will it be 50 or a bigger rate

hik hike bitcoin falls to an 18-0 low. president biden sending a letter to oil companies urging a production boost and saying high refinery profit margins are not acceptable as prices at the pump surge. let us start with the fed and that expected rate hike later on today jim, this morning bofa basically says investors pessimistic, whether it's 50, 75 might see a bit risk but they say best of luck >> look, it is go big or go home powell has to do something big, not just to appease the critics but because we know the good times have to see an end you want certain industries that make less in order to be able to have not a hard landing but a soft landing david, everyone is trying to get

ahead of recession i saw a piece on ulta that was positive remember weed say a couple stocks, tractor supply the research reads like that right now. you read it and say, wow so all we're trying to figure out is -- >> i find it a little hard to believe. >> i do too. the consumer is good retail sales >> still very strong i'm not hearing a doozy of a recession. certainly, there are many who believe there's at least a 50% chance we have a recession, but within that camp, many of those people would still say it's going to tb fairly modest in terms of -- >> well, if that's the case, you buy the stock market >> really right now, but have we seen the revision in earnings estimates we truly do? are multiples reflective of the decline in earnings that would take place even in a modest recession. >> that's a great point. new corpuz reports today, five times earnings

>> three years worth of earnings. >> you're looking at maybe -- i did that for tonight >> a proof to buy it just two years worth of earnings >> look, i experienced this -- >> three years, we got a great return >> last time i've seen this was steel, earn 13 bucks, sold two times earnings, and it had a loss that is what happened. >> you mention newcorp >> the street is looking for a dramatic decline and they came back and said, look, we think it will be a robust year. do you buy it? it's down from 180 i think everything is about what you can buy for debt >> you hear this refrain, very

hard to find a bottom while the fed is tightening. i don't know what the terminal rate on fed funds will be or when we get there. and earnings are too high. eve on the point where yesterday you and i had a discussion about google or alphabet, which is cheap, conceivably, but some people say, yeah, but you know what, its margins prepandemic for that was high. but that's what you hear >> last time we forecast the recession, march of 2020, nucor was down a third when we thought there was going to be a recession, all these prices dramatically higher that was going to be a recession. the consumer is stronger institutions are stronger. but if you use that march period, and bill akman commented, kind of like -- that all these stocks, they're just way too high

>> you mentioned akman a bunch of tweets yesterday, arguing that 75 today would restore confidence you have wood wcathie wood sayig we're on the other side of the inflation problem already because you have more than half the commodities in disinflationary road >> and gun -- >> scotty has him today. >> he's calling for 300. >> get it over with. somebody else has been saying that i haven't. >> you were saying 100 basis points when nobody else was even -- >> i would say 100 and you would laugh. like this disease coming >> i have had my moments of being skeptical. >> can i say june 22nd at 8:00 p.m., saul forgiven. you know when that is? that's the exxon special

>> all is forgiven >> look at that. what is to forgive >> is that an armani >> i've been appropriately skeptical with you as well back to rates. are we going to get 75 today >> if he doesn't give us 75, it will be huge >> really. what if he agreed with you on 100. market goes up >> yes because then we don't have -- look, a bunch of meetings. there's only two that are not two months meetings. i think all we do is sit there and say he has to do 50, do 50 you do 100, people say this is '94, we're getting it over with. david gets his recession lows. and then we can move on. but he's trying to figure out how to keep credibility and stop inflation, not trying to figuring out how to buy the market of course the problem is there's probably a third of the economy he could slow down, but

ukraine -- russia is more powerful when it comes to what happens with us. china is very powerful and then there's us. xi said all parties need to work together to resolve this responsibly. emergency meeting at the ecb >> right >> mostly words but calling for a market back stop after what italy has done. >> that's good they're obviously ware of the problem, which is great. we have a very smart man running it >> yes >> but what's worse to me is our president -- our president's reaction is to send a letter to the oil companies saying you're making too much money, and that is -- harks back to an era of jimmy carter and the jimmy carter of -- wind first of

aa all -- just don't own stocks don't own them the president uniquely rebuffed the oil companies who wanted to produce more and instead is going to saudi arabia, which you call a pariah and a murderous state. >> in turn, a letter from the api to the white house, ten steps you can do right now, which largely loosen federal land restrictions. >> right. >> reduce disclosure requirements, accelerate permitting, stuff we've talked about for -- >> right his base would just have a fit his green base would have a fit if they did that he's made it harder to site pipelines in the last three months than before there was a longer period where you could fight pipelines. >> there is this element, though, that climate change is a real threat and that there are people who believe that to be the case, and even more so that the industry itself is positioning itself for a time when most vehicles are going to be electric. and therefore gasoline is not no

longer going to be used anywhere near the amount it is now. >> right >> that goes to the refining capacity side where mike worth says basically why would anybody build another refinery in the united states? it's a ten-year period to get it back, and in ten years how many vehicles on the road will be electric >> exxon is expanding its refinery capacity, and the president's picking on exxon >> and exxon has one of the largest refinery footprints snop they're building more and producing more the president said exxon, touch produce more, what are you doing? they jacked it up. >> we go into detail on that and spent a lot of time looking at it >> when was that >> june 22nd >> the president picks on exxon. i said this to a group of people last night and they all said don't you know exxon -- you understand that exxon is like the worst company on earth i said, no, i don't understand they're increasing their

production they're the only company in america that's expanding refinery capacity. they're committed to trying to be a cleaner citizen, and the president, his reaction is to just mock them by saying, well, they're having a better year than god >> but to this letter today, is there something to be said for the fact that margins now are higher than they were the last time crude was at this price >> i was surprised i was waiting for congress to call for refinery investigation. i didn't think it would be the president. the refineries are -- the valeros of the world are making incredible profits that's because there are very few of them and can kind of go with the world price i understand why government would be upset >> nat gas yesterday, second worst day in history have to go back to '07 to see another 16%-plus drop, but our benefit is the europeans' problem. >> they needed that.

this is the liquid trains, liquefied natural gas. >> two main exporters of lng freeport and shaneer freeport is a private company but enormous complex down there in texas >> don't forget semper is very good >> but it represents a lot of our export -- percent of our exported natural gas under carl's point yesterday i was like, wait a second, why is it going down but it drives the price down here but it's another problem for europe to a certain extent because this all gets exported they're having the delays far more than they thought it was three weeks originally. now they're talking months >> everybody's running everything 102%. we know from history when you run them like that things go wrong. and i think that that's just what happens you're not dealing with -- they're not making tootsie rolls

snop rolls. >> they're not but safety is paramount. >> does it take a vacation >> no. because look what it can do? thankfully nobody was hurt >> right. >> but remember, if we have a hot weekend, we'll burn through it with natural gas. >> the weather in texas, chicago, st. louis, miami? >> heat alert. and mr. climate change over here, how about yellowstone? >> i'm mr. climate change now. i'll take it that's fine. i'm in the camp that believes it is true. although judging from twitter, global warming will be a good thing because whenever i mention this now i have all these people telling me there will be lots of food production in the parts of the world it doesn't exist >> i'm in the top five most hated people on twitter. >> do they keep a list >> they have a list. >> they do >> top ten, top five >> a secret list >> i'm all over. lucifer has fewer negative

tweets >> it' 's esteemed company. congratulations. >> people ask me do you own any cars two, actually. and they both run on gas. >> look at that. they hate me >> they hate me. it never ends. >> you need security >> at least john ledger love us. >> never misses the show >> he's my guy >> get a job, john >> don't say that. don't turn off our viewers >> he was a great ceo. what is he doing sitting on his porch watching us all morning? >> he likes us >> i'm going to go tweet him he likes me. >> we miss seeing him. >> we do >> we'll get to bitcoin, falling again today, the drawdown approaching 70%. came within about $25 of a

one-handle today bill gates says the crypto is based on a greater fool theory look at the premarket. lots of moving pieces today awaiting the fed decision. the get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

bitcoin continues to tumble, down more than 30% since the beginning of the month, and touching a fresh 18-month low. yesterday a tech crunchers climate conference, bill gates weighed in on crypto >> i'm used to asset classes

where, like, a farm where they have output or a company where they make products you have an asset class that's 100% based on sort of greater fool theory that somebody's going to pay more for it than i do and/or it has at its heart sort of this anonymity that you avoid taxation or any sort of government rules about kidnapping fees or things. anyway, i'm not involved in that i'm not long or short with any of those things. >> some echoes of charlee monger there and sam zell, who said he wouldn't touch it this morning don't miss our interview with michael saylor as we talk about margin calls, if they ever come. >> he has a business it's hard to figure out. it's an alternative universe one of the great proselytizers

is to anthony pom. he's instrumental in why i bought crypto and didn't give me the softball thank heaven my wife did he posted something interesting. this is the alternative universe of pom >> tell me >> he said nothing would restore confidence in the market more than the fed pausing rate hikes. what do you think? >> i'm not sure i agree with that statement >> no, i want you to get a little more incendiary than that, please, mr. climate change >> by the way, i wear that proudly. i don't really understand why it's an insult >> got a letter from the president. i'm going to turn to carl because you are not my guy today. >> that's an odd thing to say. >> i'm saying, that, credit market, they're in an alternative universe a guy with crypto says the best thing that could happen to the market is pausing.

i think most of us, including me, alsos me sewer climate change, david, if they pause, if the fed didn't do anything, i think that would be regarded as horrendous for the markets >> i do. you're saying the people in crypto are in a different world. >> they may be in the metaverse where things really happen but -- >> but their world is starting to crumble >> why not come out and say it's a speculative asset that is leveraged to rates >> turned out to be not a depository of anything it turned out to be -- just a really black, red thing. >> it's helpful for any number of things. >> el salvador >> has a massively overinflated currency or deflated >> it doesn't get blockchain you keep forgetting blockchain >> lockchain, the underlying technology is incredibly

powerful it is. tokens are going to be -- >> help me here. >> it doesn't mean the asset class should be anywhere near it was. >> i thought pompiano was important. he's calling for something that i think most people would think -- i struggle -- how about insane insane i was going to say ill-advised >> do you bother looking at support, 20k takes you to 12k. >> i looked at that. he got me in at 12 i got out at 48. i love him i just disagree with him on what the fed should do. >> you got out -- you had a four-bagger and you got out and that was it? perfect? >> i got my money back >> did you >> i did it turned out to be a really good bank and they were wondering why i was so panicked. interesting, huh >> it is interesting >> meanwhile -- >> should i mention the name

>> no. >> a lot of chartists say claxz head and shoulders >> another thing i make fun of with david but i'm not going to do that today because i'm obviously on his bad side. looking at the bit coin, the long knives are out for bit coin everybody is in bitcoin right now. it is just i think, you know, waiting for someone really important to come out and to say, look, this is the level i am drawing a line in the sand. this is the level. now, if michael saylor says this is the level -- >> it will be an interesting conversation with him. he's -- >> he'll be provocative. >> i'm going to be myself and i assume he'll be himself too. that should make it interesting. >> do we talk about it too much? the total market cap is less than half of apple >> we want to appeal to the 20-year-olds before they go away. >> they're not watching. >> they're working from home what do you think they're really doing? working? >> itch a 20-year-old.

he's actually in the office maybe watching >> he's insane people from home watch our show and play bitcoin after that's over, they put money on steph curry it's the same thing. >> no. that takes research. >> let's save it for after the break. we'll get cramer's "mad dash" and count closer to the opening bell on this fed day this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. this is what it's like to have a comprehensive wealth plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. and set aside more for things like healthcare, or whatever comes down the road. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost.

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let's get to a "mad dash," plays into our last conversation to a certain extent about crypto >> atlantic equities chooses a downgrade. >> a great time to do it hmm. >> right talking about declining user growth okay falling equity trading plummeting cryptocurrency, lowering revenue forecasts >> what do they have it as equal weight >> yeah. what i say is this is the kind of research, david, you start seeing now, i'm not calling out anyone like robinhood i'm just saying this is typical of capitulation. the guy was saying you can hold it now he says you can sell it. >> right thank you so much for that can i throw it in the garbage or do you want to >> i know you will probably recycle because of your -- >> yes, because i care about the planet, yes, as opposed to you just to burn everything. >> yeah. disco inferno. >> maybe i'll call you

mr. wildfire yeah >> okay. but can i turn to carl, then, and give him -- >> no. this is "mad dash. we do it together. what else about robinhood? >> i'm saying you want to watch it because it's exceptionally terrible what it's doing terrible. >> to your point, if this is a sign of capitulation, is there a point at which you would consider -- and of course you could say this about so many different stocks -- >> you buy other brokers when this brings down the whole edifice. they're all coming down. i think some of them are inexpensive. >> morgan stanley. >> yeah. 50/50. the dow jones is up, right they think people -- how many times, fakeout, fakeout, fakeout.

>> especially with 1 basis points >> 100 basis point set up for disappointment, carl. >> yeah. it's a high bar. >> right >> got knocked out [ bell ] >> liet's get the session under way. the s&p at the bottom of your screen belden celebrating 120 years high-speed connectivity solutions provider speak of subs and robinhood, some of the row roblox, this is going to be an ongoing picture. >> this is what happens in recession, suck liquidity out. we'll see retail cut, cut, cut,

except for dollar tree and dollar general that's why people have been huddled in those yesterday, what you had were recession resistant stocks like pepsico just getting crushed that's because when you have a yield on the three-year, five-year, that's so good, why do you need pepsico? why not just hide -- >> or look at utilities yesterday. >> got annihilated annihilated. >> but we hit the highest level yield on the ten-year since 2011 >> right so one of the things i try to do is be a little more clinical because it's obviously so gloomy out. i did this every single downturn what i've done is done a screen for the s&p 500 which basically tries to figure out what stocks are cheaper than average on the s&p with a good yield and are supposed to grow next year -- >> around 15 times i was using 15 >> okay. >> and they're just a very small

handful of stocks that fit that and that's very much like what the bottom is like i know that, you know, when you have this kind of stock screen that says be careful about being too negative >> right. >> there's just not a lot of -- >> reporter: here you're using the word recession more than i can recall in a more confident way. you seem to believe that's more likely than not. >> yeah. i just think the main issue is there's going to be a doozy or not. that's my term, technical term >> doozy >> but you have devin energy, one oak, verizon, huntington bank shares. i had them long. they're terrific verizon not doing well devon. ibm is controversial newell cisco systems that chuck yesterday was that rival station. advance autoparts because

there's not a lot of new cars or used cars. and energy, energy but of the handful of companies that are in the s&p, 20-odd companies that meet my criteria, those are the ones that i thought worked now, what does this really mean? every time we've had even a systemic decline, i've done this this is the fewest that i've found to buy versus 2011, versus 2008, versus 2000. i've been doing these screens from time in memoriam. that would say we're already there. >> right >> right >> that's an interesting point >> already there a lot of stocks are already reflecting -- >> oh, yeah. >> can i get a piece for tonight about the four times earnings stocks and five times? if you cut the stocks in half, they yield great >> the s&p multiple right now, you are using 16 rz, could have

a ways to go based on the fact that we're still -- earnings revisions have not come in yet reflecting more than a 50/50 chance of a recession. >> i had to deal with the hand that i've been dealt '16 was where i did the screen >> right >> that's like if you did something based on the 30-year last year. mortgages, what, 6 and change, but the mortgage amly cases were very strong, but the retailers were very weak i guess where i'm going is this is one of the more confusing times so i fell back on something i've done before, which is to screen like this but obviously, david knows it's valuable >> your larger point is basically what you're saying is jamie dimon's hurricane is essentially here. >> yes that's what i'm saying very good. >> we talked about layoffs yesterday, red fin >> oh, my gosh, have you seen those? >> retail sales are down in real terms.

>> yeah. >> wages are lagging cpi by four points. >> it's stagflation. it's awful this is a moment of we need some reflection because everything is bad. what's good? tell me what's good? the consumer balance sheet. >> a good balance sheet and most of everybody who wants a job has one. those are good things. there are still, in fact, shortages in certain areas >> well, that's very bullish that you can get a job if you want it that there probably won't be as many layoffs >> job less claims ticked up since january. these things are turning >> what was the demand >> ex fuel is negative, first time in two years. >> if there are only 23 stocks in the s&p 500, passed my test 1,600. what are you going to get, no stocks that have growth, 3.5% yield? and no growth?

is that possible every single company in the s&p is going to fail my test that doesn't seem right. does it? >> no. >> do you know that when i was at -- when i was in a stock that is off right now, nvidia, and there was -- they did a digital twin of me, he had me do that silly thing, does it do you know how hard that was to do that lilt if you kept it straight, it was hard does it? whenever he talked with me i sounded horrible my philadelphia accent of my digital twin was terrible. >> you raise a good point about innovation one of the few bright spots today is opening snow to buy, they say things aren't perfect, but demand remains robust. >> i had frank on, and he doesn't really care about where

the stock is of snowflake but he cares about the business business is on fire. people love that they were selling 100 at the top. snowflake became almost a meme stock. >> it did. it became a reflection of the level of excitement and xur rance. >> so right. >> didn't it >> and dutch bros. i have them on tonight five annihilators. have you read one? >> itch not had that coffee. >> if i have an annihilator, i will be up until friday, but i want to make it to father day. >> to different from a typical week >> very hard to sleep last night. >> the markets keep you up >> yeah. what keeps you up? >> nothing nothing. i mean, unless the mets light up a ninth-inning home run to light up the game. >> good to stay focused.

>> i finished this dinner with my wife. i'm miserable. i said, listen, few stocks, i have this portfolio, i like the portfolio, the goal is to lose less i talked about my mentor you made fun of me yesterday dave tepper. >> i did not make fun of you you said he was your teacher, not mentor >> he is >> and you made it sound like he was a yoda-esque figure. >> he doesn't look like yoda >> no, he doesn't. >> he owns is panthers what do you own? >> very little asset-light model. >> a lot of guys come on and talk about doomsday. listen, i could lose -- >> if you own fed ex you'd be happy. >> up again? >> it is followthrough to the significant gain in the shares yesterday, news of the dividend increase, the addition of three new directors. we talked about it a lot yesterday. we don't have the name of the third director yet they haven't agreed upon it. although that appears it will be

fairly soon. investor day coming up at the end of the month look at that move. that was the biggest move the stocks since the '80s or '93 >> business is not better. i don't know >> we expect it will become better finally, there are going to be significant changes in fed ex that make it a more efficient operator and its free cash flow inversion rates will start to move up significantly. >> hertz, which was bankrupt, now a $2 billion buyback that's pretty interesting, right? thoo it is >> a third of the flow. >> it is. >> that's amazing. >> that stock is up 7%, hertz. >> i vaio the fedex and raise you -- >> the former cfo of goldman >> it was bankrupt and now has a $2 billion buyback that's incredible. that's bullish >> hertz is bullish for this market >> yeah. there it is. >> two of the things we've been

hanging hats on lately >> i'm exasperated by how bad the market is. i mean, and the idea that we have to tell them stabilizing is a bit insulting, but there are so many young people, like 22 million people, robinhood would say more, but when you read their note, those people are doing exactly what i most fear they're moving on. they're moving on to something else david, i don't know what they're moving on to but not the stormtd. not draftkings maybe they're working. >> maybe >> maybe they're, like, going to work >> maybe working, having romance, love-in their life. >> very nice >> enjoying the finer things that we're here to injoy maybe eating well. >> maybe miserable, unhappy. >> boats for a beautiful sunset, walking on a beach

climbing a mountain. >> lying on a bed of nails >> singing listening to music >> wells does upgrade spot to equal weight, 124. remember the investor day last week and the metrics >> such a bargain. i thought sonos was a bargain. she threw in the bath towel, the wash rag, everything >> there's a lot of things about where consumers would retrench sonos is one morgan stanley says on a consumer pullback rent and peloton still the most vulnerable whereas amazon, match, chewy are the most safe >> look, i think that we have to acknowledge that the markets rally to the fed as you often say, david, can we just focus on the market

>> sure. wheels up is recommended today >> i haven't looked at that. why wouldn't you it's $2.37 oh, my god, it's up 23% on that note i think it doesn't even -- >> what's next-door. >> you like to bring that up very nice lady >> smart >> we say that about guys. >> i had indy on last night. i said, look, if you had come from it, three years it didn't. it doesn't take three years. but i don't know microstrategy is up. >> boeing is up 5.3% >> incredible given the fact that susquehanna said the deliveries are disappointing thinkable they need to raise money but they have not --

>> are you still hanging on -- >> no. >> i would know that if i actually -- >> the first lots were a very big gain the last one was a loss. look, i'm just a money manager no money manager would admit to owning boeing. at least i have the guts to admit it >> which is weird because the airlines -- i mean, cfo of american yesterday, we've never seen a revenue environment like this with leisure, domestic leading small and medium-sized business off the charts. >> that's the problem. the consumer is great. enterprise is great. there's a sthorge of a lot of different things we have people come on our air saying inflation is raging but retailers were weaker. maybe powell's job isn't as hard as we think because the retail sales showed you people are spending a lot of money on oil you don't want it to be -- this is a slowdown based on -- this

is based on pain it's not a slowdown -- look, russia could end the slowdown, could end this nonsense. but we want to wrench out the speculation. >> a sign to end this horrible war, that would be a wonderful thing for any number of reasons. >> right >> mostly because human suffering would start to end >> right. >> and there's a lot of that in a war that makes absolutely no sense, at least so most of us. >> i don't want to lose all hope here i'm not losing all hope. >> good, because that would be -- if you lost all hope, that might be a good buy. don't you think? contrarian >> if your bud by v di goes 50 basis points today -- >> he is my buddy. >> i'm not stating something that is otherwise. >> he is my buddy. i did a selfie with him. >> i know you did. >> just so bad >> jim's right we are rallying ahead of this decision this afternoon.

dow is up 323. s&p back to almost 3,785 when we come back, more on david's documentary, "exxonmobil at the crossroads," including some of the safety measures you had to go through to get a look at this. >> yes >> on cnbc a week from tonight time for "the bond report. obviously a lot of attention being paid to yields in the u.s. and italy where we were down 42 bips on the news ouch this emergency ecb meeting. don't to g anywhere. it takes a village to support society and businesses have a responsibility to support that village. ♪ ♪

i am peter akwaboah, chief operating officer for technology, operations and firm resilience. when you think about diversity, the employee network group is fundamental to any organization to provide a community and a belonging environment for the employees. they provide an avenue to support employees and ultimately it leads to retention of the best and brightest. the employee network represents the community at large, and it provides a good feedback loop to senior management to make the appropriate decisions, which ultimately contributes towards the bottom line. if you're thinking about growing your business, if you're thinking about driving the business forward, inclusion is a strong part of this. i am peter akwaboah and we are morgan stanley. ♪♪

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at pgim, the pursuit is on for outperformance. as active investors, to outdeliver with customized strategies, integrating esg best practices into our investment decisions. as asset managers and fiduciaries, to outserve, with our commitment to better esg outcomes. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential. welcome back of course we we've talked about our upcoming documentary, "exxonmobil at the crossroads," on june 22nd of course that is next wednesday.

also talked a lot earlier about safety protocols at exxonmobil including the fact i was forced to g through very interesting training to even get on a hept we are the company take a listen. in all my years of reporting, i never thought i'd find myself here or here. or here. but it's what i had to do to get here before i could step foot on this exxonmobil vessel 120 miles off the coast of guyana, i had to go through helicopter safety training with a company called survival systems usa first i spent a few hours in the classroom with my instructor, took a written exam, and then i suited up. once i had my gear sorted out, my classmates and i headed to the pool >> sit wherever you want >> after we practiced for

in-flight emergencies, we were ready to really get our feet wet. there's a lot to learn about surviving at sea but none of it matters if you don't survive the initial crash. buckled into a seat, dropped into the pool, and flipped an unknown an unknown number of times, you had to make my way to the surface, pulling mileself in the dark and with sirens blaring. with every dunk, i was more confident that i could handle an emergency situation. but here's to hoping i never have to. it brings back memories. i spent a lot of time in a pool, as know, but never doing that stuff. >> what was your grade >> i passed. >> did you push anybody aside when you were getting out. [ laughter ]

>> no. >> everyone for themselves. >> the last one you get disoriented immediately, even when you think you know where the window is. i had to go across the row you're upsidedown, i don't pay attention, and i kept banging over, banging my head. they did pull me out once, there are divers down there, and then i did it again properly. that last one where the sirens are going and you're under water, and they're praying water all over you're olding your breath. >> six flags has a similar ride. >> how long are you under water? >> it feels like a long time, but it could be 30 seconds to a minute, yeah. >> when your heart is racing. >> and you have to take your time you have to unbuckle your belt, push out your window, get across the row. >> but you did point out another factor. >> which is? >> if you crash and die, none of

this is helpful. >> none of it is helpful you have to first get out. now i know what to do when you get in a raft, how quickly to go after the food start fishing right away don't go for the food 24 hours now i've already forgotten, and everybody gets the same amount no matter your weight, we can all subsist on the same amount of calories. starfishing right away. >> did you talk about exxon at all? >> i was with the new york city plead department scuba divers. >> i can't wait to see this. >> it does premiere a week from tonight. you can't miss it. the dow is up almost 400 only at vanguard you're more than just an investor you're an owner. that means that your priorities are ours too. our interactive tools and advice

can help you build a future for the ones you love. that's the value of ownership.

it's time for jim and stop trading. >> musk says that rivian and lucent may not make it i'm having a -- carl, i'm just

trying to keep cool here i think there's a lot of people who think it's over. i don't think it is, and one that really tell me is platforms. now, that's a off and on stock, and it's let us down and let us down here's to maybe the beginning. >> you've talked about meta as a second half story. do ad trends remain impact i'm the apt of time addressing issues, i think the metaverse is real, and we will make for oculus, and we will spend time

there. you can snarl at me all you want, since you're a climate denier [ laughter ] >> we have dutch bros tonight. >> you keep minimizing me. all i do is build you up. >> buttercup >> how many curb -- did you just keep your head down in. >> listen, i don't want to do it again, let my say that, upside down under water -- >> i can't wait. "mad money" tonight, jim when we meco back, michael saylor in a moment

to adapt in the changing world, you could hire a professor of theoretical mathematics. we all know this equation, right?

he'd crunched numbers day and night. that's it. to maximize profitability. morning. i have quarterly numbers that are beautiful. and forecast revenue from every corner of your organization. is that important? or you could use workday. the finance hr and planning system that helps cfos make better decisions faster. for a solve problems like a genius world. workday. for a changing world. good wednesday morning welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla along with mike san tolisantoli, and davidr

an important today, a bit of a rally as yields come in just a touch. the vix is close to 30 import prices, and more data crossing the tape with rick santelli hey, rick. >> our read on business inventories, there's something interesting here we were expecting up is.2%, and that's exactly what we received. it's been a nice spring. this is the sixth month in a row of double-digit gains. december was 2.3, 1.2, 1.8, now 1.2 after the 2% month last month's 2% moves up to 2.4. why is that interesting in that's a fresh four-decade high going all the way back to 1982 when it was at the all-time high of recordkeeping 7.0. all right. no the national association of

home builders market index for the month of june, for that we turn east to diana olick diana? that is the sixth straight month of declines. anything above 250 is still considered positive, but this hit 90 in the first year of the pandemic builders know the entry-level market has particularly hard hit. builders are -- higher mortgage rates buyer traffic fell five points to 48 that's below the positive market current sales condition fell one point to 77. sales expect saying fell two points to 61 the builder are also blaming inflation, material costs, despite the recent relief in lumber prices.

builder sentiment fell the least in the northeast, but dropped the harders in the west. >> diana, thank you. we have 30 minutes into the trading session. three big movers we are keeping an eye on this morning, we'll start with an upgrade for spotify. wells fargo is now at an equal weight they had been right around where the stock is right now of course, recent investor day did late a more profitable future, perhaps that at least wells fargo had modeled for. amazon as well, whether a pullback in consumer spend of course, that stock is declined by over 47% so far this year, and an eye on bitcoin, down yet again the lowest level it's seen since december of 2020 we'll have more on crypto and

bitcoin in just a few minutes when we have joined by the ceo of microstrategy michael saylor. first to mike santoli on the markets today. so much attention being paid to yield, asset prices, how much of the work is getting done ahead of this? finance conditions have tightened faster from an easier level than we have seen in decades. we know that going into this meeting by relax, i mean we've seen the swings unsettled all of the markets. it has people thinking that, you know, if you get to 75 basis points on the fed today, maybe they give you clarity about the path immediately ahead you might think about feeling like we're not too far toward seeing the end the market says 2023

that's just the next hill. another piece of it feels like we're bundling all the known catalysts into a known week. obviously ecb and fed meetings, and massive -- and people have been matching that midyear it should be a cleaner market. in other words, you'll have more of a sense of real supply/demand next week. this bounce, you would say it's good that the market is not incrementally panicking, but it is just getting you above yesterday's high >> of course, you can't ignore what's happening in europe today, reports that gas prom is tightening the spigot. this comes on the heels of freeport yesterday the economic war rages on, and honestly is energy almost to the

exclusion of everything else, when we're talking about the stubborn stuff with inflation, and with the pressure on the economies right now. there's not a lot you can do about that in the near term, but gasoline future prices are well off their highs. oil is hanging in there, which is definitely not great psychologically, but i think it's important to realize that other stuff is moderating. >> let's also bring in our senior cnbc economics reporter steve liesman. he has more color on what now seems to be shaping up as a 75 basis point rate hike. now people are expecting 75, if we don't get it, we'll see what the overall reaction is. >> it was a big change over a quick period of time and you're right, it's the first one since 1994, but there are desperate questions how far and

how fast the fed will raise rates. in march, the median fed officials was looking for -- kind of laughable, 1.5% by year's end the current market pricing is 3 3.6%. >> these are with a caveat that the market is very volatile. now, the market is looking for more next year the peak funds rate near 4%, nearly a percentage point higher than a month ago the question for chair jay powell, did hi confirm that peak, lean against it or leave the market guessing. the market is evolving rapidly, and fed policy is also make

unpredictably. retail sales this morning were negative, missing expectations, suggesting inflation could be taking a toll on the economy chris rupke said the may report was shocking evidence before the fed decision today, with purchasers backing away, and even importers cutting their prices, possibly due to weaker domestic demand. it remain to be seen whether it is so fog comesed on the fight against inflation, it's willing to abide a sharp growth slowdown back to helicopter david >> steve has spent time to helicopters where there weres there was no training. you can see there bitcoin continues to plunge, hitting its lowest level since 2020.

our next guest is the ceo of microstrategy. hi is the chairman and ceo, joining us yet again, michael saylor. >> thanks for having me. >> 29,000 roughly coin average -- you spent about $4 billion on it. one would anticipate if the price stays where it is, that would cause a significant write-down, at least your auditors might ask for that. i wonder if you believe it also works in reverse >> no, i think it's a net positive we back-tested our strategy. if you roll the clock back to august of 2020 when we embarked on this journey, bitcoin has performed 10x better than

anything else. over any time frame, two years, four years, eight years, bitcoin is the best-performing asset i can't come up with a birr idea. >> does that mean you would actually consider buying more at these prices >> yeah. if you think about bit counsel, if your time horizon is one month, it looks like a volatile risk asset if your time horizon is ten years, it looks like a risk-off store of value asset nobody has ever losted money when investing in four years if you want a surrogate for the bitcoin network, it would be the four-year simple moving average. the simple moving average is about $21,685. bitcoin has only touched that point a couple times in its history, and those were always

great opportunities. bitcoin is on sale. >> is it a great buying opportunity? >> absolutely. bitcoin is backed by the most powerful security network in the world. if i gave you $100 billion, you can't reproduce it beyond a nation state attack or corporate attack once you understand that, and it's a singularity that has nothing like it in the world, yeah, this is an ideal point to get in. >> but you have taken on debt to accrue thatposition, which doe incurring a certain amount of r risk, doesn't it >> 2028 note, you also have maturities that are out there, about you there's concern in the market about margin calls, about collateral calls certainly on some of this debt. can you clarify for us exactly what those are under the covenants that you currently

have, and how they may impede your financial flexibility >> yeah, sure. on a multibillion balance sheet, we only have a $200 million lone one of to class rulize we're 10x collateralized the margin call is much ado about nothing. it's just made me twitter famous, so i appreciate that the twitter trolls love to beat up on me, because it gets them engagement as for the strategy in general, we borrowed $2.2 billion at a blended interest rate before interest rates doubled if you had a chance to drab $2 billion at 1.5% interest, it seems reasonable, and i'm glad we did it. most of it is unsecured.

the 500 million comes due in seven years after we borrowed the money, so we feel like we have a fortress balance sheet, we're comfortable, and the margin loan is well managed. >> you mentioned big twitter famous you helped make me that as well. we had an exchange in may of 2021 that was viewed some 800,000 times. it's instructive to get you to listen to it now and responsibility again to some of the things you discussed then. takes a listen. >> you do understand how much risk you're taking on, don't you? >> there's something solid there. bit counsel is an idea that's worked how long do you have to watch something spread like an idea virus before you decide that maybe it's going to be around for a while >> so, again, you're comfortable taking this continued risk that we're talking about? >> you know, the bigger idea

here is bitcoin is the first and only legitimate scarcity in the universe gold is not scarce they just found 320,000 tons of gold in uganda, which would double supply of all gold mines since the history of the beginning of mankind bitcoin is the ideal commodity you can't make any more of it, you can hold it forever, and it's programmable. as i want before, if i gave you hundreds of billions, you can't re-create the network. we see it unique as a long-term store of value it's a commodity and property. we couldn't do it with a security like the s&p index. it doesn't make any sense -- yeah, we stand by the decision we think 98% of the world doesn't understanded concept of

a scarcity of a digital debt when they do, it will be a magical thing. >> these things only have existed for a dozen years. a fewer-year value, it doesn't seem like something that has a statistical significant to it. maybe it's worked on the chart, but to say something like book value is a little tough. >> bitcoin is a bank in cyberspace microstrategy put $4 billion into the network we got less than 1% of the network. so if you think about how much money collectively has been invested by the bitcoin -- it seems like if you look at the daily deposits and the network day after day on the floor -- over the course of the last four

years and people tend to hold on to it forever and because there's -- it's unique and there's no other alternative network you can move it to, people who have put that money into the network are committed in the long term >> i guess the other question is, a lot of people have looked at the price action, looked at the asset attributes of bitcoin and other crypto, saying it's really just running in parallel to what's happening on the technology side. maybe there's no right or wrong price for the coins, but there's smund underlying it that will be the next version of the enter net. you don't seem to be in that camp you think it's stuff to own because it has the scarcity properties >> look, every commodity in the world has looked kind of good in

a hyper-inflation environment, but the dirty secret is you can make more gold, produce more porn, you can even create more real state bitcoin is is the only thing that looks scarce and is capped. one digital commodity called bitcoin, so this bit counsel is unique because of its provenance and because of the bitcoin mining network backing it, and because of the protocol. there's nothing like it in the analog world there's nothing like it in the crypto world. >> but to mike's point about the short shelf life and limited history we have to go on, what do you say though to toss that it's been incubated in an environment of cheap money, stimulus and growth, and if that

ends, why should the price have anything to do with its short history. >> it's appreciating there's a fundamental need to 8 billion people in the world to have a store of value of their economic centering that is beyond the reach of a corporation or a government. it did not be debased by any institution or nation state. in the 19th century, that dream was the gold dream in the 21st century, that dream is bit coin. you know, it's not hard to go find someone on the street that wants to find a way to preserve their life savings without it being stolen by a bank or debased by a government. bitcoin meets that need. nothing else in the world meets that need. >> mike at, you indicated earlier this is an opportunity to buy more. i think the company bought

bitcoin in the first quarter >> the company continues to generate cash flow from time to time, as we have excess cash, we're going to buy more our strategy is buy it, hold it, and sweep our free cash flows into bitcoin. >> what about buying your bonds? that might actually get more bang for your buck. >> yeah, the security market is very volatile, and i understand that, but our strategy is levered long bitcoin our investors, our equity investors, our securities investors they know our strategy is to be long with bitcoin with responsible use of leverage. we didn't that makes us predictable, and all of our investors can decide whether they want to hedge their portfolio. >> i wonder, when it comes to transparency, do you think given the complexity, you're able to

provide that clarity you know, 20 years ago you signed a consent decree to do that, to make sure that things were not opaque at all does this period we're in sort of make it more difficult to do that >> i don't think so. i think we've gone to great lengths to explain to our shareholders what our balance sheet looks like they have all the notes that converts the senior secured note i think it's well understood it's posted on our website we have detailed investor calls where we discuss it and answer questions. finally, to the extent you are a leader in sort of pros le adve tyzing, what do you want to tell to say people they bought it on margin,and find themselves in

deeply negative position, if not having to be completely wiped out in their account, where they had the bitcoin. >> look, if you money advertise this less than four years, you're a trader, and i don't think. if your time horizon is more than four years, you can reasonably call yourself an investor, and the bitcoin savers or maximalists, have a time horizon of ten years unless you're a professional high-speed trader with proprietary southeast ware, you ought to hal it at least for four years if you want to focus on something, focus on the four-year simple moving average. it would keep you from having anxiety. it helps you understand where we are in the life cycle. >> you don't have any anxiety either, right now? >> if your time horizon it three months, you should hold the currency that you have your cost in if you want to be an investor,

you can invest in stocks, but that's got its own risks if you have money you want to save for a decade, real estate might work trophy assets might work, but bitcoin is scarce, desirable property available for everybody on the planet and the most egalitarian asset they have access to. i'm produce to promote it. >> michael, always happy to have you on, these conversations are always quite helpful >> thanks for having me. in the meantime the supreme court is in the final weeks of its terms. the jurisdictions have 22 remaining cases to be decided by the first week july we had two opinions this hour, neither was dobbs v jackson. the state is asking the justices to wipe away that nearly

50-year-old precedent and take the step of overturning roe versus wade. we're going to closely monitory every single day, and we will bring you special coverage as we get that as we head to a quick break, our road map for the rest of the hour, it does include much more on the fed decision, that possible 75 basis point hike rhonda fur son will weigh in plus president biden has more on what it means -- and 90% of respondents say that raw material costs top the list of primary business challenging in q2. jay timmons will join us later tho as "squawk on the street" is just getting started. the right moves fast... e get decision tech. for insights on when to buy and sell. and proactive alerts on market events. that's decision tech. only from fidelity.

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joining us this morning is roger ferguson great to have you, especially like a day like today. >> nice to be here. >> what do you think is going on, and what that may mean about the committee's thinking >> i think the prospect of 75 is

very much on the table i think it's in large part because of the incoming data, with one exception, has shown that the market continues to be very strong, overheated almost we haven't seen what i think of as people expecting, which is peak inflation that last cpi read i think got everyone's attention can't speak to the journal's story. it's not the norm for fomc members to sort of work that way. i think it's much more about market expectations. having said that, i will say the move from -- expectation of 50 to the expectation of 75 basis points has been really quite dramatic so all eyes will be on this afternoon's meeting, the discussion, and we'll figure out exactly where we go from here. i think it's more like -- not 100%, but more likely than not it will be 75. that's where the market expectation is now and when they're in a tightening

myo, i think they're unlikely to dispoint the market, about you wile have to wait and see. >> is there value to surprising the market to the up side, being more hawkish than we think >> i don't think there's any value of that. i don't think that's helpful at all. i think they'll have a chance to shape expectation, you know, i think the market has priced in a couple 75 basis point moves, which seems like a perfectly reasonable thing to expect given the nature of inflation, so i think the message i think we're going to hear is one that sounds roughly as though the market right now, but with the expectation, since this is such a dynamic situation, economic data may force a change in hands, change in expectations.

>> roger there's a lot of attention here, basically their and where the cycle ends, as well as the forecast for unemployment jay powell has been pretty clear that a soft landing is an ideal objective, but by no means guarantees it. >> i think chairman powell announced last time about a softish landing. he said there are plausible paths, but it will be very, very difficult. i've heard, he also used the

word pain, i believe to get all of us expecting what i think at best will be a bumpy ride i think that's very porridge to get the market ready, the population ready, but frankly their job at this stage is to get inflation under control. we have all seen the price, the costs to average households i think they are ready to go to a restr restrictive posture. >> clearly the fed seems to be operating as if there is a sole objective right now, which is inflation, and the populist one at the moment, too maybe there will be more talk about the balance sheet strategy it's just fascinating to hear

the discourse around what's going on some people are saying, look, this is just all abstract, an asset swap it doesn't have real-world tangible implications. others feel lie the balance sheet has been solely responsible. what do you think is the important message for the fed to convey about what's going on there? >> i think the important message is that they have a plan and they will execute it you know, they will figure out where they want to stop. i think they've had? general statement there. i think with respect to the balance sheet, it is a tool, but i think actually that it's the fed funds rate and the guidance that's more important. we do know as they gradually shrink the balance sheet that

it's going to certainly drive some interest rates up, but obviously that's more at the margin as opposed to the actions they take. and how the market themselves see the future. >> finally this morning's retail sales number, first month-on-month decline, a little more chatter about whether or not we're experience -- and whether or not this recession we're tossing around may actually be in place at the moment do you think that's true >> i don't think that lays at the moment actual be highly unusual given the strength of the jobs market. obviously, and we know this, consumers are paying the price of rising prices, so to speak. we see from surveys that they are moving from, you know, brands to store brands, people are trying to drive less, for example, so we've seen a great

deal of boggs survey data appeared this retail data that came out recently that suggests consumers are changing their behaviors and trying to economize in the face of their aniflation, which i think is very much in theway the fed will interpret this. i do not see this as a sign we are in a recession at this stage. the other point, obviously negative interest rates are in negative territory, compared to inflation, so real rates are nowhere near contractionary or neutral. it will be highly unusual to have a recession emerging against that backdrop of tight labor markets and this monetary policy that has not even moved to neutral yet. >> roger, that's a good look really appreciate it good to see you. roger ferguson joining us this morning. >> thank you. be sure to tune into

"closing bell overtime." jeffrey gunglach's remarks >> he thinking there's a quicker path, and we'll see what he has to say after the meeting the dow is holding on to about a 300-point gain, bouncing off a rough four-day stretch let's bring in ar cashin art, good morning. great to speak with you. theres a lot of talk going into this fed decision today, an unusual setup to say the least rarely have you seen the fed hiking into a distraughtdown in the stock market such as bev seen so far. clearly investors are apprehensive about this. what is your assessment? >> i think the market is all

excited, talking about the need -- so the fed, i think felt it had to move therefore, i believe it purposely leaked the idea that they were going to go for 75 basis points the reason, being an old fogey, i can tell you, back in 1994, the fed surprised the market with a 3/4 of a point move it caught the general market so far offbase that orange county, california, had to declare bankruptcy that was a major event, kind of like long-term capital management i think some of the old-timers at the fed said, mr. powell, we can't go in appeared shock -- i think mr. ferguson was right about that -- the mark does not want a shock here. i think they purposely leaked it it got out there i do disagree slightly with vice chairman ferguson, in that i think the balance sheet

tightening is important, and i think what you're saying around bitcoin, cryptocurrencyie and bitcoin is the concern we're getting a liquidity squeeze here the fear is while we can hear what the fed wants to do with rates, nobody is telling you exactly how much tightening they are doing. one of the most helpful things that could be asked of powell this arch is, have you tightened any? and how much so? because this market is terribly afraid of a liquidity squeeze, and in the case of bitcoin, a liquidity event, that something like long-term capital management or orange county, something that catches the other markets offbase. >> yeah, obviously the extreme volatility in bonds definitely puts everything on alert

in terms of how stock exchange have actually behaved, just in terms of reading the entrails here of this sell-off, we were waiting to see if that was going to be a retest of the may 20th lows, that clearly failed. clearly there was some sort of washout conditions, if not the ultimate one >> you got some of those, it wasn't the kind of throw the became out with the bathwater. you watch to see how desperate the selling is it's desperate that you tell what you can sell. you can sell whatever you can, including your grandmother's necklace

now, i think the rest of the day, history will show us tell us, anyway, on a fed day like today, we should have a mild upward drift, hanging around there until about 2:00, we'll get the announcement, 10 or 20 minutes of frenetic whipsaw trading up and down, and then we go to 2:30 and powell. the keel for him will be to tell people, to pull a mario draghi, to say we'll do whatever it takes, and that will be done hopefully one of the bright people in the audience will have the courage and aptitude to ask him, have you tightened yet? and if so, how much? that's an underlying concern not only here but in europe. that's why the ecb had an

emergency policy meeting italians bonds were up greek bonds were beginning to move the whole mediterranean sector, it's all about capitol hill. everybody is terrified that liquidity is disappearing. we can't feel it quite yet >> he said if you had -- i would throw my hat in the ring, but unless you put those two things together, you have to be suspect. we definitely got one of the two. >> how do you feel about that combination? >> well, again, i'd like to see it -- they tell my there are certain nuances here that are inhibiting it and the fact it has not gone back to 20 or the high teens, and therefore that spread is not there. you may have to go all the way up to something like 45, that

you need a big spike until they start selling grandma's necklace, carl, i'm not ready for jump in quite yet. today we expect an upward move if we roll over, watch 3700, they break that, that could cause some problems. i tend to think the bottom could be around 3500, but again it's an off-year election traditionally the bottom comes later in the year, around august, september. i don't want people biting their nails until then, so seasonality is tell me on the one hand, it might not be here, and on the other side grandma's necklace. so you have to stay tuned. >> art, thank you very much. good to talk with you. >> my pleasure. let's get a news update with

contessa brewer. >> hi, carl. the european union is launching legal action against the united kingdom because it says the uk failed to implement part of the post-brexit deal the british government has moved u.nilaterally to change key elements of the -- and the eu says it's violating international law. part of ohio is without power, as some customers were intentionally taken off-line it's under extreme heat advisories today the power company wants to reduce the risk of more widespread outages for many of those ohio customer s won't get electricity back until thursday or friday. as of today microsoft will no longer support the internet

browser. microsoft had essentially moved on when it launched the next-generation browser, microsoft edge in 2015 yet, david, the button still exists for me to push explorer very confusing. >> there's so so many that are very confusing contessa, thank you. >> thank you. before we head to a quick break, a check on energy xle, of course, you know this, it's had a great year, up more than 50% today in a letter to big oil companies, including exxon and chevron, president biden saying they need to do more to alleviate the burden of high prices on consumers, adding well above normal refinery profit margins, quote, are not acceptable we'll have more on that coming up next week, we have a big documentary, taking you inside from the inside out, and, of course, the many challenges it

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welcome back there's a summer return international event today, and that's where we find our own leslie picker. >> monetary policy front and center, as you might expect. at superreturns in berlin gives the fed announcement today and the emergency meeting of the ecb. i spoke with him and asked what he would do if he was in jay powell's shoes, and whether he thinking 75 basis points is

enough. >> it's enough for this meeting, but not enough to bring inflation down, the economy back in balance, which is why what they imply about where policy is going, not just to the end of the year, but where it needs to rest in the medium term, is going to be important. >> he said the fed needs to establish they're going to do their job on inflation, even if it means a worening employment picture. >> i think what the fed is looking to do and where they will retain investor support is if it's clear that they're going to get a handle on inflation, that they don't think they can bring inflation down to target by just a small adjustment in interest rates >> reporter: earlier today i also spoke with mike arangetti i asked him if his privately held portfolio is seeing more of an impact from inflation than

publicly traded peer, since he gets updates on a metropolitanly basis as opposed to quarterly updates. hi said so far companies have been able to pass along the price hikes. >> if you look in the rear-view mirror, the fundamentals are very strong you. up to this point, most have pass-through devices, so all the anxiety and worry is really forward-looking. and then obviously that has to get faxor factored in. >> he set post of the opportunities for buyouts for private equity portfolio is actually in the public markets, because that revaluation has hand quicker than it has for the private markets. he does think the second half of the year will be more interesting on that front. guys >> yeah, that's an interesting

point, leslie. we're going to get the second quarter numbers, a lot of private companies, and that could lead to the revaluation lower for many of the holders of those companies. back to m & a, obviously an environment like this one is somewhat different to negotiate a price but what are you hearing about financing? there are plenty out there right now that are at least contemplated what are you hearing in terms of the likelihood of getting the financing that they need given the rising rate environment? >> i asked aroungheti about that it's what a lot of the buyout funds use to get deals do. obviously that slowed, but i asked him about demand with so much additional competition. he didn't seem too concerned

he said investors are still willing to put their 340i7b to work there, and it's held up pretty nicely. >> leslie, quite an assignment leslie in berlin we'll talk later. the national association of manufacturers is out with new survey results, showing significant concern around recession, inflation, hiring and china competition. jay timmons joins us about his calls to the president for some legislative action good to have you here. >> thank you for having me here. >> it's an interesting day, when many corporations are raising their hands with solutions can you talk about what your survey found >> about three out of five manufacturers believe the current inflationary pressures will lead into a recession

that doesn't have to happen. you noted that businesses are raising their hand to provide solutions to the white house this is nothing new. we've been sounding this alarm bell for well over two years we've been providing input on an agenda to allow allow manufactun america to be more competitive we call it competing to win. even during the trump administration we were sounding the alarm when we were dealing with ppe shortages, that the supply chain was going to be broken and we needed to repaired and they didn't react. we've had rising energy costs that are raising those prices. i've outlined our proposals months ago to the administration to provide for more pipelines and permits, critical minerals mining, regulatory stability and instead we just get more conversations either on the hill or with the administration

the time to act is now because this could get out of hand >> when it comes to tariffs, how much relief do you think is actually baked into the repealing of some of those, and does it end up with the u.s. losing leverage against china which we broadly talk about as a competitive and geopolitical threat >> the nam executive committee just met in wilmington, deg wear yesterday. this is where all our records are stored dating back to 1895 the interesting conversation we had on tariffs -- because nam was founded 127 years ago to fight tariffs and to create more export opportunities but what i'm hearing from manufacturers today and what our executive committee members are hearing is that, yes, there are cost pressures that come from tariffs, but the more immediate problems that we have are the inflationary pressures of energy prices that can be dealt with

with some very smart and targeted policy, workforce shortages and the fact that the supply chain is broken which we could deal with if we'd deal with tax credits to grow domestic production, incentives for research and development and also encouraging investments that power manufacturing none of those have been adopted by this administration, the last administration or congress so, yes, those are issues, clearly, the tariffs and they do provide cost pressures, but the amount of cost pressures we're seeing in so many other areas actually dwarf those >> jay, if your members now do increasingly see the risk of recession as being heightened due to inflation, you have a read on what that's meaning for the spending and investment plans at this point? there is a sense out there that maybe the capital spending kind of projections are going to be a

little more sticky if only because we're talking about domestic production and other long-term proiorities >> they don't have to be we have monetary policy. we know what the fed is going to dorks raising the cost of borrowing and capital. but at the same time, policy that's developed by congress and the administration can actually ease some of those pressures and burdens. they can do that by targeting tax relief to help us create a better supply chain here in this country. i mentioned we were at the hagly library studying the history of the nam. a lot of these same types of issues were occurring in the 1970s and '80s and it was the nam that put forward an economic agenda later embraced by the reagan administration and the democratic congress, and it allowed us to get through all of that, the stagflation, the

inflation, the interest pressures and allowed manufacturers to invest in higher and raise wages and provide better benefits. that's what we're calling for today, calling for and competing to win and congress and the administration need to act quickly on these recommendations. >> jay, it's a good look, and maybe next time we'll talk a little more labor supply, another picture that continues to evolve. talk to you soon, jay timmons, thanks >> take care. all right. we are up on the s&p and the nasdaq we'll take you to a quick break. "squawk on the street" will be right back you're a one-man stitchwork master. but your staffing plan needs to go up a size.

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nothing on dobbs versus jackson women's health that's the case that could control the state of roe v. wade, the abortion rights decision that has been the precedent in the united states since 1973 a lot of expectations swirling around that case since an early draft was leaked that appeared as if it would strike down roe v. wade. no indication that will be the final decision by the supreme court. of course everybody is watching and waiting for that decision. instead today we got six other decisions including a veterans benefit case, a disagreement about payments by medicare to hospitals, tribal gambling, international child ob ducks, a worker arbitration issue and a case on trump-era rules on immigration. at this point, david, we don't know when the supreme court is going to issue new decisions typically we get that information a couple days in advance. at some point we'll get a date on a calendar when we'll get new decisions from the court

we expect the remainder to be handed down this month and maybe into early july. at this point the supreme court has the ball and we'll see what they do with it. >> eamon, another decision i'm watching closely is the one involving gun laws here in new york again, no word on that. >> no word on that one today that's another one in a long list of cases still pending. obviously in the wake of the shooting in texas, so much attention now focused on gun rights and the movement on capitol hill with a potential deal at least to change gun rules to some degree on capitol hill you've got republicans seeming to indicate support for that there might be a political change in temperature going on on guns. we'll see if there's a change in temperature at the supreme court as well. >> eamon, thank you. our viewers get the benefit of having mike santoli's analysis for the next -- i don't know how many hours, but i don't. what are you watching?

>> markets ideaing ahead of the fed. just for context, s&p trade friday 4100 to 3700 since last thursday so wide swings bonds are calming down a little bit. the softness in the retail sales number has brought yields in a little bit maybe they won't go into the fed meeting, we're looking for clarity on fedex peckations and how it will react through the summer. >> that will do it for us on squa"squawk on the street." "techcheck" starts right now welcome to "techcheck. i'm carl quintanilla with jon fortt and deirdre bosa hours ahead of the big fed decision, avoiding of more interest rate pressure ahead the crypto crash continues as bitcoin falls nearly 30% in a month. we'll discuss. finally more target cuts for apple ahead of a big union effort in maryland a look at why morgan stanley is getting more bearish this hour.