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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  June 15, 2022 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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we got three 7 to 10% rallies this year on the way down from less conditions than we have now. nothing says you can't have one of these come out of nowhere i think people are very defensive. >> so glad to have your last word i'll see you right back here "fast money" is now. the fed drops the big one. hikes rate 75 basis point pps the biggest increase in nearly 30 years powell says another three quarter point hike isn't off the table for july what did the market do it rallied we'll break it down with former dallas fed president rnicole richie a-- richard fisher and ou traders. biden's big oil battle the president calls on the nation's refiners and energy companies to pump and pr deuce more saying their profits are coming at the expense of consumers. what impact will have fight have
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on the crude complex that's the most aggressive increase in 28 years major aver averaging but fin shing off session highs. the dow added over 300 points. both snapping five day losing streaks. the bond market taking a breather despite the rate hike yields on ten year treasury. was the fed able to get it right? guy. >> in terms of communication, they got it right. we had a robust conversation on monday steve cams in suggesting they would do exactly this. i think across the desk we said this is what's necessary i know tim said it the market will probably rally
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on the back of that. i'll say this, given the selling we have seen over the last month or so, given it's gotten to a lot of our price targets, i would submit that given the language we heard and give tennessset up this market can rally another 7 to 8%. i think in the shore term they got it right i'm so happy they didn't take easy way and do 50 75 was necessary required and it was a step in the right direction. >> feels as if what the markets expected or wanted that gap closed today in terms of what the markets expected and what the fed plans to do. that's a big thing >> you can see where fed fund futures as we get to year end have moved around over the lar -- last couple of days. why 74 or more means more in
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terms of equities and we were so over sold coming into this the nasdaq on a five day from the instra day high to the lows where before we started to put in bit of a rally yesterday. i think 13%, s&p, 11%, if you look at the treasury market, even more over sold, 70 basis points. you had 7 moves of 1% up or down plus or minus one percent to the close.
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markets are set up for relief. so over sold treasurers were positioned this way. i think this was the little dirty little secret they were going to rally hard. >> putting 75 on the table that feels like it was important in terms of paving the way for the market to gain footing and move higher over the next month or so. >> right i think both of those were really important the enormous change between 9 or so, that's the chart that is most important
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if the fed is sort of very aggressive about exercising, exorcising inflation then that's a good thing for the market. if they're going to be dumping mortgage backs, think having more mortgage backs to go probably wouldn't be good. >> many have been saying the fed should be more aggressive. we should rip the band aid off 75 should be on the table. i'll go to you mr. recession if you think that's scenario is the most likely still given the
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apparent change in stance of the fed today. >> well, yeah, i don't think that what he did today, i take a different stance i think he lost credibility. when he says we're kredsable but conditional, then they're not kr kr credible you can't say something but change under a different condition. they their conditional has nothing to do with being credible they lost credibility because they said 745 was off the table. then they raised by 75 if he says 50 to 75 is what should be expected and then the next time we raise by a full percentage point, what's the point of dots, plots and all forecasting. >> does it really matter, steve, that the fed is lost -- at this point don't the markets want to hear that the fed will respond
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to conditions as necessary and that that one change today is the most important thing and credibility, whatever, this is what the markets want. this is what the markets need to go higher. >> the markets didn't need -- if we're going to really give the market what the market needed, he probably needed to raise ove a percent. i think when you look at the -- no one can agree on what the neutral rate is. the markets didn't need 450. they don't need 75 they probably need much more than one he doesn't have the ability nor the stomach to give the markets what they want and to give the markets what they want is to give the economy a recession if inflation comes down 2%, we
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never avoided a vrecession. if unemployment goes up by half a percent, we never avoided a vegs i think a recession is inevitable and we'll still be chasing our tail here. anything he does, won't have anything to do with food or energy i've been tweeting about this for the last couple of weeks >> that's where i was going to go because there's an interesting point in the press conference where he says there isn't a difference between head line i'm going to paraphrase because it's the expectation and gas prices and food prices are very important. the fact of the matter is, it was basically an acknowledgement there's to control over some of the aspects of inflation we can cheer the fed is going to be aggressive but still have problem of higher rates plus, still, persistently pesky inflation down the road. >> you're channelling your inner
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wiz right there. spot on. the next conversation is what is the inevitability for the market i do think we're set up for decent little bounce here. the problems of the market have not been solved. companies are starting to layoff profit margins will come down. earnings will come down. all by definition. that's just almost inevitable. i have no idea if we're in rece recession, going to a recession. >> do we invert? >> we had our greatest fears and
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greatest inflation scares. we reacted we steepened up today. i think the move in the bond markets were a little extreme. i think when bond yields stop moving higher, equities can start the move higher. the conditions in which we move and how quickly we move, i do think is about catching up and getting ahead of at least market expectations the bond market we proven and talked about this often will really, i think the fed is not in control of the long end to some extent they lost control of the short end look at the move in the two year, forced the fed hand or the fed followed through and did what the two year had already done i guess i think about the context of markets more broadly here i actually think we priced in a
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lot of supply chain. we priced in a will the of geopolitics. a lot of margin pressure what the market will start doing is pricing in recession fears. we haven't gotten into earnings revisions an ultimately if you have dynamics where you are talking about recession, the latter phases will be about credit an liquidity. there are phases to all of this. we talk about levels on the market getting down to 3800 seem necessary. we talk about these levels below if you're at 32.50, you're at the retracement. you're at levels the s&p was at before it rallied aggressively into covid there's lot of difference places but i think there are circles to the market and companies, someone like a home depot. we got housing credit numbers today and how much value there are in homes around the country and how above water people are there are companies you can trade here
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>> all right more on the fed decision with steve leisman. what do you think? what do you walk away with as the most striking change in fed chair powell's tone today? >> i think there's four things i would tell you the first one is that 75 base point s a bold statement they haven't done that in very long time. they said we give you 50 or 75 nec next time. the second one is fed has left lala land in terms of believing it could get away with solving this inflation problem with a little trimming around the edges. it's got the sheers out and ready to whack when it comes to an over grown bush of inflation. the third is fed and the market being in better sync
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it's worth looking at what the outlook is right now and the big, bold change not the 75 but in the outlook they went from one nine to three four and next year to almost a full percentage point higher from where they were that's a big, big move by the median official. there's the forecast right there what they did in terms of moving up the outlook much closer to where the market is the market came down bit today. he said it's very uncertain the very interesting there's a lts of things about the inflation story that the fed feels he
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can't do anything about. >> i think it was interesting the line of questioning from all of your reporters in the room was sort of along the line of is recession going to be on the table in that if you keep raising rates knowing that there's a large part of inflationary pressures that will not be relieved by plop tear policy, it's not just a sledge hammer that fed is using, it's a bulldozer because you're going to kill demand by whacking the consumer, roll them into the ground because you cannot control the inflationary pressures of food and energy here we are on this hiking path. >> that's right. you think about what the alternative is wa kind of an economy if we had monthly inflation at 8% or 9% every month. it's the counter factual doesn't matter at that point
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i think we can skirt the inflation here if the fed can get inflation down and end up at a 4% funds rate, i don't think that's the end of the world i think that's something we can do i'm going embrace a bit of powell's optimism that it's still possible to do it approximate i would say the outlook is less certain. >> i mean 4%, we have been so spoiled by such low rates that we forget that 4% is still historically low maybe it is possible that we go back to sort of a normally functioning economy and recession is not just on or off when it comes to economic growth >> i think it's right. i also think just in terms houf the market would react, feels like markets hate uncertainty.
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are we, are we not in recession. that's uncertainty the market doesn't like hoping for a shirp swift recession. i think that's better for the markets. you and atalked about this as well ang recession is better for the market >> steve, thank you. >> can i disagree with that? >> go ahead, disagree. >> i don't think there's any situation where the recession is better than the market i'm not sure karen means that. >> i do. >> it's not just karen >> wow >> contraction, the short and sharp and short lived. tim is raising his hand, i think
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in agreement that would be better in the markets. >> than what >> hang over in a deeper, longer recession. >> why do you need toit to be called a recession if i call it a recession, it doesn't matter that much you don't want to have a recession -- i'm sorry, you're raising your hand. you're being very polite i'll be yooiquiet now. >> fip nish i'm just getting in line >> if you're fed chair, anybody is you want to try to avoid a recession. you want to bring down inflation and not have a recession we don't need a recession. we don't want a recession. it's the worth possible outcome for people on main street. it's not a very good outcome >> karen >> i disagree with the latter in that i understand why jay powell wouldn't want to have a recession. it is possible that their sdiers and what wall street would trade better on are not the same
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thing. i don't think that helps us that we avoid recession by not having negative gdp for two quarters. >> tim, last word and then we got to wrap. >> well, again, i also think that main street is well ahead of wall street in terms of where they sit i think the recession is a bit of reset in terms of if you can over come expectations and you can hit that with sledge hammer, that's more important now. >> all right steve. thank you as always for spirited discussion >> you're welcome. coming up, more on today's fed decision
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richard fisher will join us with his thoughts on the big rate hike a new vaccine update the fda vote that could impact millions of childrens. tus." tails when "fast money rern you'll always remember buying your first car. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price, our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. (mom allen) verizon just gave us all a brand new iphone 13. (dad allen) we've been customers for years.
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welcome back the fed raising rates since the highest ov the pandemic. our next guest warns the fed has way to go because inflation has met met metastisized >> i love the panel. you guys are tough weed whacker, sledge hammer. bulldozer. >> what do you think is the appropriate characterization that fed is doing? >> i'm not sure it's completely out of the control i do disagree, as much as i admire chairman powell, talk to any ce ork of any business public, private, small, immediate yum or large and they
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will tell you they have trouble finding labor and have to pay up for it and once they get it, their productivity is lagging. they have to work on it over time it's going to take harsh but precise surgery. i think policy is very frank i like his honesty in the way some you have call it uncertainty but the fact that he is basically said, look, we're just going to have to watch this carefully. they are admitting the decision model, which is i call the horse out the barn model, you act. takes 18 months to work its way through the economy, the real economy. marks react instantaneously. businesses cannot do that. you have to figure out everything from lagging or
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payable, accelerating receivables. you have to figure out everything, the works. they're all saying going back 48 years of history, they will take more aggressive pricing action to protect their margins this is going to be a longer term process i wonder if 4% will be the top because i think this is running longer, deeper and the fed has a role to play although he's right. thanks to russia, ukraine, covid
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lock doins and other things, not everything is under their control. what is under their control, they should act on they'll have to act on i think it will be harsh medicine radical surgery. >> mr. fisher -- i'm sorry >> please, go ahead. >> i was going to say, i apologize. there's a bit of a delay first of all, i admire you a great deal, your candor and intellect for sure this is statement then a question i think the wealth gap in this country that is undeniable in large part due to fed policy over the last decades. that continues the grow. inflation really only hurts the lower and the middle class the upper class could sort of laugh about what they are paying for gas. it really doesn't matter that's my statement. my question is sort of this. i'm wrong all the time if you watch fast money for the last 15 and a half years, you know i'm wrong a lot i have no problem with being wrong. my problem is the hubirus
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associated with the inflation they beg for years they could control once they got it because that to me is the height of hubirus. >> it's the horse out of the barn approach. they adopted it at the summer conference a little over two years ago. i criticized it then i think it's a mistake you wait to see whether or not inflation is transitory or not you want to see it and then you act. we made mistakes in the past we sometimes got it wright we sometimes got it wrong wu we took preemptive measures this is post measures and it takes longer
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remember, there are over 1500 companies that have gone public in the last year that had nothing. zero cost money allow thoeem toe financed i am worried by credit we're going to see some serious failures and serious corrections and real stress. it's to an opportunity for good investors like you guys but it's going to create some real turbulence and volatility in the mark and maybe a serious situation someone will have to cure either through monetary policy, regulatory policy or whatever it may be >> are we talking about a systemic issue, richard? >> i don't know if it's systemic i know this much, when money is free, you discount the present value of future cash flows look at what happened in the crypto space and fintech space
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a lot of young people thought money wasfree forever, particularly those retail investors, i think will be seriously hurt it will be interesting to see if it creates major incident and whether or not the fed needs to react or someone else needs to react to cure it i think there's some black spots out there. that's my point. >> always great to get your thoughts thank you so much for joining us tonight. >> thank you i love the show. i think you have a great panel all i can say after this is have a great day. >> thank you i got the best panel in the business that's for sure. good to see you. karen, would you agree in terms of black swan credit may be an issue. it is true we have a whole kau dra of
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companies. now look what's happens to rates, so quickly too. >> right it's happening to rates and also what's happening to valuations because the rates go up and you discount infinity to a lot closer you get a lot lower value, for sure i think that easy money is gone. we had a lot of companies that took on debt post-pandemic that are having higher costs. we talked about this yesterday with airlines. i don't know if you watch the show when you're not on but we talked about that and how the cost of capital will eat its way through a lot of companies i feel like that will create interesting opportunities. >> deep in a 5:00 feeding. i didn't watch what do you think about in terms of black swan. you're the one that thinks the worst is to come for the economy.
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>> yeah, trying to guess a black swan is probably a pointless endevour but if you're looking at a rising rate environment, you probably can't have a supermarket to everything that richard said and everything we know on this desk. you'll have karen point it out the end of the spac markets. you're going to have less ipos, less deals probably could have more mna, people bottom fishing trying to pick companies you're not going to see a bull run. you'll see equity classes go away that could be other just lose their luster down the food chain. as far as a black swan event, this just could be a deterioration of the market, down a couple levels earlier i pointed out that fed 2020 level of 33.50 maybe we go lower because we're in a rising rate environment i think that takes the gusto ou
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of all inverss -- investors. the day the bottom market is in, is when people sell their apple. not when they sell their zoom. >> we haven't talked about trading. what is going on right now in response to the fed. we talked about a short term rally. what we saw with the sharpest gains in the nasdaq 100 an the stuff that got bombed out. it was interesting to watch apple do nothing as large cap tech moved higher earliy in the day and finally it caught a bit after the fed decision >> i think steve makes a good point about the general last to go down and apple is clearly one of those generals. it's ard to bhard to be tacticai environment. i think there's an opportunity to be tactical in the ferorm of these higher flying tech names i think what will wind up
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happening is we'll have this conversation with paul sanke, i think energy will fall by the wayside which will be your opportunity to get back in there. coming up, a big warning for the energy industry. what does that mean for energy stocks paul will join us in a few new details about of an fda vaccine vote the impact it could have on millions of children don't go anywhere. fast money is back in two. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire
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two doses of slightly higher dose, a quarter of the adult dose pfizer is three doses of a much lower dose just three micrograms each which is a tenth of its adult dose for moderna your you get them
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weeks apart. for pfizer it could take you a few months to get the regimen completed there. only 18% of parents of kids in this age group are expected to go out and get vaccine right away these vaccines are already purchased but we heard from a lot of parents who testify at the committee hearing today. >> any safety concerns in terms of concerns for the vaccine doses. >> it's predom ninantly in teenagers. they're not seeing it in the much lower groups but they are looking for that in terms of the overall safety,
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it did look good for both vaccines because the moderna is a higher doese, we expect to hea more from the cdc but important things to consider >> thank you guy, alhow do you trade thi? >> i think you go to the airlines i think the second half of this year, the airlines are too cheap. my sense is the others would agree. they've been taken to the wood shed for good reason i think there's real opportunity, few you can start nibbling on the airlines now they will be rewarded with them many fall. the airlines is the first place i would look >> megan mentioned this will not be huge to the company's bottom lines but this is the last phase of the roeopening every person in the united states can get a vaccine at this point. open up because parents of young children can take plane, hotels. they can do all sorts of things they might have otherwise
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decided not to do. steve. >> yeah. that's the same theme as what guy said you switched over from material objects to services and now you would look at the cruise lines, airlines you can buy those and even if you asked me one time, even if we're headed towards a recession, this is where people will allocate what's left of their money before they start pulling the reins back because they made the reservations a little bit earlier i don't think you want to be an investor in moderna. you could biuy pfizer. i would go to cruise lines adding to what guy said about the airlines >> tim >> pfizer down 20% off the highs. trades at 11 times i think very attractive. i think you've taken a lot of the fluff off of that one. i love las vegas sands six months ago i have to love it here i think the cash in the balance
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sheet is positioning in singapore. it's not just a china story. i think they are well positioned to be op opportunisopportunisti. we talked about the forever lockdown story in china. president biden calls out u.s. oil companies what he says they need to do to battle rising prices you're watching "fast money. wee ckn o. 'rba itw ♪ ♪ women have to overcome more obstacles to reach the top. it's made them fiercely determined
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welcome back oil falling almost 3% as the biden administration trying to blame it on big oil. saying historically high refinery profit margins being passed directly onto american families are not acceptable. let's bring in paul sanke. the administration this afternoon went as far as to say that it is the company's patriotic duty to inkraes supplies and cut consume costs is there a political risk to this group that should be priced into the stocks at this point.
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>> i think it's being priced in. companies are going to be producing as much as they can. >> paul, it's steve. love your work it seems like this is a bunch of sp smoke and mirrors for me when looking at biden and big oil and russia and ukraine those are the elephants in the room where does iran fit into this nuclear deal, exporting more barrels under trump. seems like they are a bit of a canary in the coal mine. >> it's more iranian barrels on th
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the biden administration is not pursuing iran. it's the answer to the lockdown. it's not really in global oil supply either. he thinks it's 2% capacity which with china out is effectively zero iran is more in the market than you might think and it's a marginal thing that will probably not make much difference even in the iranians get their act together >> paul, it's tim. we don't have time to do this, i'll make a statement and ask a question how about the biden energy policy as being that laid the foundation for this and russia and dynamics are the spark but we went into this with $85 oil that was up 30% on his watch my question is more bottom up related to companies and some of the mna we're starting to see. talk about that underpinning companies that might be right
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for some type of a type out. it wasn't a big surprise but it was exciting >> it's private valuations and that's why continental has taken itself private we can see that happening at this moment the public pressure on these companies doesn't make sense compared to the amount of profit that they are making to really reason of any nefarious behavior ultimately we could see a lot more priefts some of the other names could be coffee refining. i think we're interested buffet getting it and could he keep going that's another one that comes up on the radar >> paul, thanks for your thoughts the good to talk to you. >> thank you >> guy, you mentioned there's a pull back in oil stocks. you get in there what's top on your list?
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>> the oih and spervegly names like haliburton. everybody hit the nail on the head demonizing energy companies might be expedient doesn't make a lot of sense nor does releasing crude from the spr make a lot of sense. the fundamentals are such that oils going higher. tony joins us with the action. tony >> some of these energy shares are becoming way to play leverage view here on crude. one trader took out 1500 contracts of the august 121 puts for the average price of about
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$3.40. that's about half a million dollars in premium for put options that are more than 20% out of the money this is really something that we have seen a lot from institutions buying these really far out of the money put options. perhaps either as a tail hedge against long equity position or out right taking a bearish position here in oil and gas stocks >> ntony thanks. coming up, powell's millennial advice the warning he has for first time home buyers we have the details when e we return machin
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. welcome back to fast money jerome powell had a stark warning for millennial home buyers >> if you're a home buyer or young person looking the buy a home, you need a bit of a reset. we need to get back to a place where supply and demand are back
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together and where inflation is down low again and mortgage rates are low again. >> been a rougher ride for housing related stocks this year when i heard that, karen, i read it as he's saying the millennials to wait. >> i think he is a byproduct of what they are trying to do would be to cool the housing market on its own is not great thing but a necessary thing. if there's less mortgage backed securities coming to market because the fed will be trying to get rid of theirs and as rates have gone up, the duration of mortgage backs that they own are getting longer they have lot to go.
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>> what makes a difference d between home depot and the other stocks why is home depot more duable? >> i think the diversity of the offering, i think they have a lot of prices power. if anything they will be dumping more money into their house. there's 11 trillion in tapable mortgage equity in this country now. we just got some numbers out it's almost 28 trillion now, up 20% on the first quarter i think the housing market has a bulls jeye on its back and it probably should.
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there participants that you can invest restoration is down 70%. this is a stock that's trading at 7 or 8 multiple for next year that said they're not going to be discounted. it does have inventory corrected. i think a lot of the pull back here and clearly with restoration it was a pull forward. i think you priced in a lot of paint in some of these didn't go up on day when rates went down 20%. that tells you something up next, final trades.
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time for the final trade let's go around the horn karen. >> yeah, nice gift from de shed and fedex. 15% since yesterday morning. i got to sell some upside call against it even though i like it >> tim >> i'm a buyer of this energy pull back. eo eog. i think you bet gak into one of the best integrated eog. >> steve >> kroger. probably a little long in the tooth in the bull story but it still looks bullish to me on the
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chart. i think you play it on earning today. get a quick dtrade out of it. >> guy >> great to have you back. wynn resorts >> thank you all forwatching see you back here tomorrow ed mad money startrit w.s ghno machin my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money. trying to make some money. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job is not just to educate but to entertain, teach, put in context. call me or tweet me. @jimcramer as long as i have been involved in investing, i have almost never he

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