this is a place i think you can definitely hold on through even if we get a recession. >> okay, doc >> u.s. steel. >> good stock to own when things are slowing down >> "the exchange" is now thank you very much, scott hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans, and we have another steep market sell-off on our hands today. the dow dropping below 30,000. we're sitting right on that mark right now. below it for the first time since last january the nasdaq the worst performer again back to its lowest since september 2020 today's losses wiping out yesterday's post fed rally markets seem more concerned about a recession with the ten-year treasury yield back down to 3.33%. our reporters are all over this story this afternoon dom chu with today's market moves. steve liesman on the central bank rate hikes around the world

including a shocker from the swiss, and diana olick on the continued fallout on the housing market welcome, everybody dom, take it away. so the markets right now are still down 650 points but, believe it or not, that is 200 points or so off the worst levels of the session. we were down about 861 points or thereabouts earlier on this morning so if you look at the dow industrials sitting on that 30,000 level, psychologically important, maybe more than anything else but still down over 2%. 114-point drops for the s&p 500. 36.76 the last trade there off of about 3% and nearly 4% declines for the composite index, 10,685 and, by the way, at the lows of the session off over 4%. so, again, lower for sure but off the worst levels of the session. we'll see if there's some kind of stability brought in this midafternoon trade as we approach the closing bell. one place to keep an eye on is the sector dynamic

maybe no surprise that over the course of the last year period energy has outperformed consumer discretionary and technology some of the real underperformers there. i would also point out that over the last week it has been energy, consumer discretionary and technology that have taken some of the biggest hits among the biggest losers in the nasdaq over the one-week period so you can see where the steam is coming out of in the marketplace. and then with regard to some of the moves we've seen in mega cap technology, always a key focus because these fine stocks, apple, microsoft, alphabet, the parent company of google, amazon and tesla, make up a huge chunk of the overall s&p and nearly 40% of the nasdaq 100. apple shares down over 3%. microsoft outperforming, if you will, only down 2.5% 3% to 3.5% declines and it tesla down nearly 8% but we are not all about fear, uncertainty and doubt. no fud here. some of the parts of the market

green on the session, only a dozen of them, kelly, in the entire s&p 500 first of all, gold prices, if inflation is a problem, gold has typically gone up higher newmon is up nearly 3% will there be a tradedown effect if the economy goes bad? cme group, trading volatility, exchange operator, procter & gamble, consumer staples and who are hormel foods, just about a dozen or so companies, kelly, that are green on the session in this big sell-off. >> fud, i heard you work that in there. dom, thank you very much the big moves didn't just come from our fed yesterday. steve liesman in washington with more on central banks around the world, steve >> reporter: kelly, yes. surprise and aggressive rate hikes went global with the swiss national bank raising an unexpected 50 basis point following the fed's 75 yesterday am the bank of england has a

bigger problem with inflation went up a quarter. european central bank could follow as central banks, some worry about currencies, everybody battling inflation move from the pandemic-era policies of zero and negative rates. fed chair jay powell,fact, saying the fed will be raising rates to restrain the economy. >> as you get closer to the end of the year, you're in a range where you've got restrictive policy, which is appropriate, 40-year highs in inflation we think policy will need to be restrictive and we don't know how restrictive. >> reporter: let's show you where the median forecast is and the big change in march. 3.4 end of this year i don't know if 2.5 is neutral add some more in the following year 3.8. all that have is around where the market thought the fed ought to be and rate cuts built in for the fed and even the market for 2024 with 3.4% rate.

so a big jump yesterday by the fed but much more work to do to get to neutral and restrictive you can get on a plane but you can't hide from rising rates >> i'm trying to follow the narrative here, steve, because yesterday when powell said he didn't think 75 basis point hikes would be as common we saw risk assets take off, then you get these more hawkish moves by banks globally and risk asset sell-off but the ten-year yield is lower on the session. i can't quite figure out what to make of it >> i'm not sure i'm going to help you out all that much what i do know there's a big adjustment to happen and the swiss are moving, i think, as much for inflation as they are for their currency reasons japan, it's very interesting their currency has fallen through the floor, as you know, relative to the dollar and other currencies as well and you do have a global concern about recession and the central banks doing too much all i knownknow, kelly, it will

getting ahold of inflation and the economic pieces are going to fall where they may as a result. >> true. well said. steve, thank you very much we appreciate it steve liesman in washington. now with this global pivot in rates it appears to be getting clearer the era of cheap money and easy money is over how do you invest in this new environment? joining us the chief investment officer and cnbc contributor and jason brady, president and ceo of thornberg investment management welcome to both of you peter, i will start with you how do you explain the past 24 hours? >> that's a great question i think that a confirmation of the synchronized mode of global tightening with our experience and as steve said the swiss came out of left field in a way that we weren't expecting it but it's what they should be doing since they have the deepest negative interest rates in the world. what we're now transitioning to is central banks now trying to

wake up to reality because before this the bond market around the world was tightening for them, and this is an attempt for central banks to get back in control of this whole inflation narrative. now we'll shift to what's the economic implications of all of this no growth in the second quarter and we have to assume that there's a high likelihood it could be negative in the second half and there is going to be a global recession likely upon us in response to inflation, in response to all of this tightening so that's where investor focus is shifting towards. where earnings shake out in that kind of environment. >> where does that leave you on the risk assets you want to own here is fixed income now attractive because we've priced this in or does it continue to be, you know, a place of no return >> well, look, on a day when hormel is the only thing that's up, i would say if you only own spam in your portfolio right now it's probably just as bad as

only owning growth five or six months ago fixed income can play a role, real rates are up 2% from their lows, negative lows. international in other central banks moving and taking out some of the strength of the dollar. we are starting to price that in i bought the bottom before but never only the bottom. >> what about international equities and u.s. equities >> we do like particularly asian markets, and i do think today could be an interesting inflection point on the dollar as was just mentioned. so the swiss franc against the euro and is potentially, technically, a double top versus

the swiss. so if today is the beginning of realizing that other central banks are finally taking this seriously as the fed has and you will see a compression in interest rate spreads of overseas bonds relative to the u.s. we could be working the top in this dollar move. if that's the case then international markets should start to get some of their footing or start to outperform u.s. markets from here >> do asian equities stand out to you, jason? where do you think has the opportunity? >> we try at thornberg to put together a balanced portfolio so there are equities in asia and equities globally that have exposure to asia ten times earnings, great cash flow, negligible exposure to russia/ukraine a great part of our business in japan. it's time investors take a look at what is the broader exposure. pharma is another thing,

astrazeneca, great asian exposure that will be positive going forward. you look at names that aren't necessarily the ones most beat up but nor are they the ones we're hiding under a rock with will fund growth, make sure you have cash flow and those names do and lots of names in asia do. >> citigroup comes up on your screen peter, what would you do with the financials which are supposed to be a beneficiary of higher rates and yet have struggled mightily and now have to deal with stagflation >> a potential downturn in the capital markets as m&a dries up, and also the down side of a credit cycle so i still think that will be a tough place to be. whereas insurance companies can benefit directly from the rise in interest rates. >> and where would your final on metals, commodities, we'll talk about in a moment who is seeing bearish chart developments, of someone who thinks this one might be a multiyear bullish cycle?

>> if i'm right that today maybe marks the peak in the dollar off that swiss franc move that can light a fire upwards in gold and silver >> all right we'll see. gentlemen, thank you so much today. we appreciate it bringing some clarity, much needed, this afternoon higher rates hitting home builders with 80% of stocks in the etf falling to 52-week lows today. 85% of the stocks. look at tri pointe down 11%. a further drop-off in demand diana olick has the details. >> reporter: that demand or lack thereof is showing up in the may housing starts and building permits numbers we got this morning, a big miss on both of those. total starts fell just over 14% month to month down 3.5% the street was looking for a 2% decline. that is the lowest level since the start of the pandemic. if you break out single family, which is what we're watching so

closely now, that was down 9% for the month. the home builders are clearly worried about rising mortgage rates and a sudden drop in demand from home buyers. building permits which are an indicator of future construction fell 7% for the month, essentially flat year over year, the lowest since september of 2021 the biggest drop was in multifamily. but single family permits down 5.5% for the month again, all of this because affordability is just getting whacked by rising mortgage rates. the average on the 30-year fixed started at just over 3%. it is now just over 6% we know there is a big supply in the pipeline powell said home buyers need a reset, supply and demand getting back to normal he said the fed is watching home prices, quote, quite carefully builders who just a few months ago said they have lots of pricing power now apparently are starting to drop those prices. kelly? >> they are because price is the

one thing he wasn't sure prices were going to fall substantially. it's interesting you see a little bit of that taking place. >> reporter: home builders had so much demand because existing home supply was so short and they are facing increased costs themselves for land, labor, materials. so they say they can't afford to drop prices by much, but, again, either they are going to have to get into the lower priced product or take some of the heat out of the market. i always want to say it's not that prices are necessarily falling, it's the gains are shrinking. >> true. for now. diana, thank you our diana olick. it's not the home builders themselves only getting hit here the home construction etf down 6% today but a lot of companies in it that make things involved with housing are also sitting at 52-week lows like fortune brands which makes things like cabinets and doors and locks. 46% off their highs. paint supplier sherwin williams

38% off the highs. home improvement company 32% off of their highs but could these names hold up better than feared thanks to last year's surge in home ownership? all right, ken, lay it out where do you think there's some opportunity and maybe a little too much gloom any of these names >> we are very cautious, as you know our wall of worry points to the building products, home builders, not underperforming the market until the last tightening cycle while we think some are better positioned we are pretty negative nvr, which is also down, one name we like demand is falling. diana laid some of those data points out we did release our a to z report of pending home sales down 15%

in june. not good while supply rises, up roughly 22% year over year at the end of may the way we look at it. and, in fact, as diane also pointed out, you have the builders, they have roughly public builders, 200,000 units of inventory of which 50,000 are unsold that leaves 150,000 in backlog the unsold have a lot of price pressure to clear out. you have to think some of the backlogs are going to be facing higher cancellation rates. and that's what is eroding the sentiment in the group >> so the short answer is no, there is nothing really in the space. and, by the way, even nvr which you are more upbeat on, our guest said he didn't think it should be owned because of the size of the company and other things any response to that >> yeah, we give advice, hopefully, to have our investors outperform the market. >> full stop i got you.

let's turn then to some of the home fun ishg stocks i mentioned. if you're seeing this kind of bearishness play out in home sales, fine. i totally understand that. but what about the new homeowners from the past couple of years who potentially now are only just going to start looking at putting that money to work in new flooring or new paint or what have you? could those stocks be a better place to turn? >> historically they are and we would generally expect that to play out there's different exposure for companies based on new home exposure and remodeling as well as industry structure. i do think it is predicated on 30% declines in home builders during the average tightening cycles back to 1969. clearly with negative rates fed commentary, but the gap between the fed funds and the two-year rate, there's a lot of tightening and i think a recession now points to further down side in our states.

there's not a lot of room for looking at individual names when you have this large outflow of sentiment. >> fair enough >> existing home sales are really slowing >> are you still overweight on sherwin williams >> we are and that's within a ratings structure that's very conscious on home builders we have three that are underweight. so industry structure, we call it the three ps, paint, plumbing, combined with the companies themselves operating the best industry structure. as you highlighted a lot of pain we did down grade fortune a few weeks ago. we thought that story was over they did talk about the cabinet business which we think is indicative of further trouble. >> a great point paint, plumbing and pools, our three glimmers today thanks for your time we appreciate it coming up, the energy etf, believe it or not, the xle, down 10% since our next guest said to

short it two weeks ago now he's back and he'll join us after the break with a look at the breakdown in commodities more broadly could crude come crashing back to below $100 a barrel plus, the tech-heavy triple qs set to close out their worst quarter in two decades any names worth buying or are there more opportunities to short? we'll explore that as we head to break, a look at markets. the dow is down 600 points silver off the lows. the nasdaq down 3.7% and the ten-year yield down to 332 hey lily, i need a new wireless plan for my business, but all my employees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this. your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, like asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee. yeah i should've just led with that.

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welcome back, everybody, watching closely the commodity complex. check out the huge year-to-date moves we've seen nat gas doubling crude oil up 53% nickel up, corn rising, wheat up almost 40% my next guest says there are now signs the uptrend is starting to deteriorate. joining us to check the charts is carter worth. he was more cautious on crude a couple weeks ago and you were right at least so far on that one. >> you are kind to remember that one. the issue is this for commodities before we look at a chart or two

something of a blowoff in response to the ukraine war. late february to the first week in march oil went up 40% wheat almost doubled if you look at the crv or different atfs, we know we never exceeded that high the first chart, i think, is informative, an etf you can trade. gsg. it's an ishares that represents a broad basket of commodities. it's energy exposed, livestock, precious metals and so forth if you look at that blowoff peak, we're still now under it and we're starting to break trend over the past six months a huge move december 15 to june 15 but all struggling. copper is rolling over oil under pressure here and i think there's more down side,

energy was loved and now you have certain energy stocks off 15% and 20%. mean reversion is not always satisfactory or valid technique, sometimes it is and i think that's the moment here >> is it just a pause within a larger bull market i asked peter boockvar, he's been very bullish on commodities, and he said, listen, the dollar to him looks like it could be having a short-term peak here could it be another source for commodities to the upside? >> speaking of it before we figure out going forward, think how impressive it's been the commodities have been so strong even in the face of the strong dollar >> exactly >> how strong a cycle this is and cycles both have long term, intermediate and short term. while we know it has been a major bear cycle for commodities and over the past two years a bull phase, on an intermediate basis, kind of the point about this exercise, a lot is baked

in independent of the long cycle, va valid, you have to be tactical >> you wouldn't be long energy you would not be long the commodities here in the intermediate term. can i ask you since we have you and before you go, what about the broader stock market >> there is this thinking that somehow the market has started peaking in january here is the crazy thing. the russell 3,000 down 3.4% and all the world is bullish making big projections about 2022 while only down 3.4%, the russell 3,000, already at that point half of all constituents lost 20% of their value. >> in december wow. so then where does that leave us now? >> well, just as perhaps it

takes the road less traveled when all are bullish, almost everyone is turning bearish and i think you will get a bounce here >> wow this is the first hopeful sign i've heard from you, carter, in a couple of the last appearances. no, it's good. maybe we're turning a corner >> may it be so, as they say >> thanks for your time today. we appreciate it carter worth, the cnbc chart master coming up, the nasdaq sinking to its lowest levels. we'll take a look at the tech names making the biggest moves and as we head to break a look at the dow heat map with only two names in the green right now while nike, amex and caterpillar are the worst. the green spots are walmart and p&g. we're back afterhi ts. your der will help you create a comprehensive wealth plan for your full financial picture. with the right balance of risk and reward. so you can enjoy more of...this. this is the planning effect.

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welcome back to "the exchange." i'm feeling more bullish but the market is not there yet. the dow still down 666 points, 30,001 for the blue chips. the s&p down 3%. the nasdaq almost 4% all 11 sectors are in the red. consumer discretionary is the worst performer. every part of the market is down almost 15% from its highs. the worst communication services down 40% here are some of the movers this hour the cruise stocks are among the worst performers in the s&p, the big three down another 10% today down 50% this year who would have ever seen this coming it's extraordinary big banks broadly lower. jpmorgan, bofa, 52-week lows today. a quick check on those commodities we've been talking about all hour gold and silver higher as

investors look for safety, if you want to call it that copper, aluminum and steel are all in the red to tyler mathisen for a cnbc news update. good afternoon, everyone here is your cnbc news update at this hour. the january 6th committee returning today for its third public hearing focusing on vice president mike pence and how former president donald trump put his life in danger >> donald trump turned the mob on him, a mob that was chanting hang mike pence, a mob that had built a hangman's gallows just outside the capitol. thanks in part to mike pence, our democracy withstood donald tr trump's scheme >> the full story behind the pressure campaign to get mike pence to overturn the 2020 election the alleged buffalo mass

shooter appeared in federal court a few hours ago. federal charges could carry the death penalty which new york state charges do not and abbott's critical baby formula plant in michigan is closed again after a powerful storm flooded part of the plant. the company estimates production and distribution will be delayed for a few weeks until the damage is assessed and the facility is cleaned and sanitized. more trouble on the baby formula front. >> the last thing we want to hear right now tyler, thank you very much coming up, inflation is at 40-year highs. is it going to stick around? how can policymakers avoid a rerun of the stagflationary. we have some planning tips to help protect your money. here is sharon epperson. here is a tip for your money. consider boosting your short-term savings with i bonds, a good hedge against inflation

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welcome back stocks are selling off again today as central banks around the world hike rates to battle inflation. chair powell yesterday saying many inflationary drivers are beyond the fed's control, but my next guest isn't so sure washington flooded the economy with stimulus dollars to offset the pandemic causing nominal growth to explode to 10% and that's not the only policy error. all right, dan, it's good to have you and let's not overlitigate what should have happened but to take the conclusions and say what needs to be done right now >> that's absolutely right, kelly. if you think about it, the fed's job is hard enough they were behind the ball. we made serious policy errors,

you mentioned the spending we've had no change in energy policy since the russia/ukraine attack even though we knew prices would go up if the attack hit and we're seeing more and more pressure in the energy and the food markets itself which will further make the fed's job harder as we start to think about what could happen moving forward, there are very active negotiations happening today in fact, a meeting in the white house with the president yesterday about potentially raising taxes and paying for more renewable energy spending that won't hit until 2025 or 2026 and if you think about where economic growth is today, is probably going to be negative in the first half of the year with that high inflation, and so we're getting a lot more spinach and that could be a potential policy error we should be looking at ways we can start to increase production of oil and gas, distribute it better, and as well as the support system for our friends in europe, by removing the caps for nato countries to receive

exports from the united states, all of that will help. when i look at the headlines of the last two days, the president's letter to the oil companies possibly implicating price controls or something on energy, which will be a policy error, the opposite effect, and we're still having serious talks about some build back smaller which is a lot of tax increases up front at a time when companies and individuals do not have the resources to pay the taxes. >> ironically the one thing it could all result in is to slow the economy enough to bring down inflation. so in an odd way it's pointing in the same direction as the fed if that's now the primary goal, it's just that it might set us up for a situation in which we have more stagflation and a less productive economy over the ensuing, i don't know, 10 or 15 years. >> that's absolutely correct i want to be careful that slower growth does not necessarily mean slower inflation in 1968 where there's enormous parallels to where we are today, we raise corporate and individual income taxes to slow

inflation down and what we got was the complete opposite. we got the slow growth but we didn't get the inflation down. inflation accelerated. in 1993 alan greenspan and bill clinton said if we raise taxes the fed wouldn't have to raise rates as much. as you know in 1994 we had a furious raising federal reserve including 75 bips, fed funds rate increase, after that was enacted. so that slower growth doesn't always result in lower inflation and we need to be very careful about the policy decisions that we need to make. the big takeaway from this is the monetary framework and the fiscal framework we've been using for 40 years has been completely up-ended and you throw this geopolitical challenge on top of it it is important to figure out what the problem is and get that solution correct rather than going into these policy-era begetting policy era, that led to the problems in the '70s and

the risk if we have the stakes >> i just don't think the current administration is going to want to incentivize more energy production or lower taxes. >> that's right. >> do we look five months ahead to the midterms for something substantive there? can anything come out of a more dramatic change in control or another couple of years there's the presidential re-election, or do you think maybe things will change quietly on the margin that maybe we might hear a lot of rhetoric about going after these companies but they know this, they know what you're saying and they're going to work to actually encourage more production >> it's an awesome question. let me start off by saying when we refuse not to do something after february, you had higher oil prices, russia making huge gains in eastern ukraine, and you have much more worse political polling for the democrats. so the failure to act has really hurt across the board for the democrats in office politically, economically, geopolitically and the question is, okay, well, if

the republicans win in their mid-term elections, are we going to do an energy bill, that would still require the democrats to say, hey, we need to do a fossil fuel bill and that's really tough given where the climate change constituencies are. you would need 60 votes in the senate to pass something like that, but i do believe this will be the energy election the republicans will have to do something on energy. it may not result in a bill getting signed into law and by then russia may be making even more gains in eastern europe we want to get this right, figure out what's best for the country. in march of 2020 we did that they passed $2 trillion in spending, kelly. that was not easy for many small government republicans they did it. it worked. now we need the democrats to say, maybe we need more fossil fuels rather than trying to rely on saudi arabia and venezuela >> or could we see something more technical like the jones act which might not have quite

the political implications of suspending that at least temporarily so we can use more ships to move oil from the gulf of mexico to the northeast, for instance >> absolutely. we can do things on the margin we've always done these after hurricanes we still haven't done it here for this supply disruption this is as big as i've ever seen it my concern, kelly, we'll have a hurricane in august or september and it will knock off refining capacity and we do not have the cushion to withstand that. we should be making changes and building in the cushion ahead of the period just to manage the risk i would love to see it but last week the president gave governors veto power over pipeline distribution. we've been moving in the opposite direction and i would like to see more of an all of the above approach i understand the climate change concerns but the stakes here are pretty important for the u.s. economy and they're pretty important for geo politics and we're not doing any of that and it's compounding and making the fed's job much more difficult to get inflation under control. >> dan, it's great to have you today. thanks for your time

>> great, thank you. >> dan clifton still ahead the nasdaq lagging today as tech gets the brunt of the sell-off. the names making the biggest moves lower. check out twitter which turned negative moments ago it had been up about a percent as elon musk attends the virtual all-hands meeting to talk to employees. among other things he's not hung up on ceo titles doesn't care about being ceo per se but does want to drive product in a certain specific direction. ayituseronthst wh he "e exchange." wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

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the broad based selling continues at its lowest level since september 2020 ev maker the worst nasdaq producer is down almost 10% today but already 68% off its 52-week high double the average drop in the ev sector, or subsector. familiar cloud and enterprise names, service now, you can see the stocks on your screen 8% or lower. we have fast growing financial technology stocks that have been, unfortunately, among the biggest losers affirm, you can see down 10% today but down 83% year to date. much of the drop coming specifically from just this month alone. and then every constituent of the smh, down at least 3% or more with amd, marvel, part of the worst performers on the nasdaq today and then chinese technology. two days ago i was talking about it it was turning around on better

than expected retail sales and a bet chinese policy will be more accommodative but that's not helping them today. baidu, alibaba, pinduoduo, traders pretty much settling on the notion the fed may not come to the rescue even at the risk of a recession kelly? >> kraft/heinz is not usually the first name i think of. >> it was monster but right before going live i was told it was now in the red you never know what you're going to get. >> got to take it down to the wire kristina, thank you very much. kristina partsinevelos coming up, we're digging ddeeper whether they are now a buying opportunity. and as we head to break check out the biggest laggard. etsy down 10%. don't go anywhere. are you haunted by your cable service?

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welcome back, everybody. tech leading the sell-off with the triple qs down more than 30%. our next guest isn't buying any

equities here and thinks the nasdaq could go back to prepandemic levels let's bring in daniel shea, director of options at simpler trading. great to check in with you let's see how you're trading the market and we will start with rk you think -- >> this is one of the most relative weakness etfs in the market right now and, unfortunately, with the way the market is just continuing to bleed, i think there's still more down side ahead in here now i know that there's a lot of traders or investors out there that aren't comfortable with coming in and shorting and so that's why i'm really looking at some inverse etfs that they can buy. there's the sark that you can buy which is then shorting ark itself, and i think this etf still has at least another $10 to $15 of upside

now i will note that shorting at the lows of the year is not a good time to get in, but getting in and out of the etf at various points >> and real quickly trading something like this, does it erode capital over time because of the structure how long should you feel you fe comfortable owning something like this. >> so for something like this, i'm using it as a trade versus a long-term investment just because of the volatility that is in the market right now i do think that this fund in the long-term continues to go down primarily because if you look at all of the top tickers within that fund, a lot of them are losing money and most of them are continuing to tank tesla is the one exception that i think could eventually bring this fund higher but if you look at the likes of something like roku, i mean, i just can't imagine that they trade higher so for right now, it is a short-term trade but in the long-term, if we continue to stay in this bear

market, i mean i'm looking at this to be something i could trade over the next couple of months. >> let's move on because it is not arc k. you think the qqq complex is going to come under more pressure the sqqq some thoughts on this? no glimmers of hope yet? >> i don't see any glimmers of hope the biggest glimmer of hope i see is that the foot call ratio is the highest since march of 20 and what that means is that investors are short and if there is some kind of bullish catalyst we could see the q's trade higher but the macro situation is so weak and that is not going to bail us out this time i think right now we have to continue focusing on downside. i know there are a lot of investors in there, they don't want to sell amd or microsoft shares so in that instance, what you could do to get through this time frame is hedge with the

inverse qqq. because i think that the nasdaq is going back to the february 2020 levels and you'll see continued pain in your long shares. >> as you say. so if people don't want to let go of the stocks just yet. let's talk apple and microsoft do you think there could be a short squeeze here >> apple and microsoft are really my two favorite stocks that i like to trade when the market does start trading higher if you look at yesterday, i don't remember exactly how much they were up i think 3% or 4% typically when the market does short squeeze, you see buyers coming in to these names and so while they don't have, you know, high short interest and the way that you could talk about amc, because the way that the interest comes in from buyers on days where the market actually does gap up and we're seeing some positivity, those stocks are the ones that go first. and also they are the backbone of our technology economy here

so in the long-term, they're going to still be around so might as well focus on those. >> so that brings us to netflix. where the shows the last couple of weeks we've heard some ooifrs getting more positive. it doesn't seem like you're one of them, though? >> i'm not, kelly. because i think that something that we haven't really been looking at lately is earnings. because we got through last quarter earnings season, and there was a lot of earnings destruction going on but we have another earnings season coming up very soon and netflix did awful the last two quarters and i cannot imagine that next quarter they do any better so i'm looking at the stock and i'm looking at the way that it is trended both pre-earnings and on earnings and after earnings and also the news that has come out from netflix, they're cutting jobs i just, for me, it is still a short and i'm going to try to trade it to $150. >> all right ends up at $173 and we'll leave

it there danielle, thank you. danielle shay with simpler trading. still ahead, everyone on the street trying to sort out how to invest with the dual threat of inflation and recession looming. we'll look at how the wealthiest, the llnaesremiioir a repositioning when we come back. past extraordinary landscapes into the heart of iconic cities is a journey for the curious traveler, one that many have yet to discover. exploring with viking brings you closer to the world, to the history, the culture, the flavors, a serene river voyage on an elegant viking longship. learn more at viking.com you're a one-man stitchwork master. but your staffing plan needs to go up a size. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description.

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welcome back, everybody. one more thing before we go. here is a staggering stat. about 20% of millionaires think inflation will last at least two years according to a recent cnbc survey robert frank is here with the date saw and how these folks are positioning their portfolios in response, robert. >> well kelly, this group owns more than 85% of individually held stocks so they could really impact markets and for the first time they cite inflation as the number one threat to the economy. they also say in flation is the top risk to their personal

wealth ahead of the stock market now a majority say the economy is headed into a recession this year or it is already in one. most also say in flation will last at least a year or two with one in five saying it will last more than two years. now they still have some faith in the fed, most are somewhat or very confident that the fed is going to be able to manage inflation here but this is political here democratic millionaires nearly twice as confident in the fed than republican millionaires about half say the s&p will end the year down double-digits and for their portfolios, it is all about cash and fixed income right now. nearly half say they have kept more money in cash because of inflation and the markets going forward, they plan to move more money into short-term fixed income as for stocks, twice as many plan to buy stocks in the coming months rather than sell. so that is a good sign but the overall allocation still the lowest that we've seen in

the eight years that we've been doing this survey. >> so it could be a head wind for the market as it tried to recover the footing here it is also interesting to see them so bullish on owning fixed income which is one of the worst performing asset classes you said short duration. or maybe it is very short duration where they're just happy to get some yield. >> exactly they're happy to get the yield and what is important about the stocks or the silver lining, say back in march of 2020 they were the first to come in to see opportunities to buy we're not seeing signs in this survey that they right now see that opportunity to buy at least not yet. >> all right very interesting robert frank on the millionaires reporting. we appreciate it they see recession, we're going to look at two names that could do well in a slowing economy if that is where we're headed that is coming up next hour in "power lunch" which begins right

now. and "power lunch" does begin, kelly, thank you very much i'm tyler mathisen, welcome to a busy thursday on "power lunch. we have a sell-off on wall street amid an aggressive inflation fight if it is not just starting, it is really getting some power behind it now. the risk of recession, it is rising, say most people. stocks falling, the dow breaking below 30,000, the lowest level in more than a year. so what is ahead for equities, for bonds and e market as it undergoes this great re-set with new opportunities potentially. we have a big hour ahead as we track this continuing sell-off, kelly. >> thank you and just to your point, let's look at where we're session lows right now. the dow is below 29,900, we're down 788 right now and we're 19 -- these are the in blue the percentages that each of the